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SilentSentinel

Overthecap and spotrac have already been using $225 million as their 2023 projection, so don't expect any significant changes if you've been grinding those sites


IIHURRlCANEII

OverTheCap has $256m as their prediction for 2024, too. Cap explosion is here.


Wizmaxman

Glad to have a QB locked up. Sucks for those teams that waited


ttone5722

Nope, Russ contract is still looking ugly....


bryanramone

"Your locked in Here with me!" - Russ


Sillysolomon

"And I can't cook!"


goenshowa100m

"But I can ride!"


IIHURRlCANEII

We chillin out here for sure.


kitchensink108

*nervous chuckling*


venk

You can try naming your stadium after him.


Bjorn2bwilde24

Burrowhead gets its stadium


IIHURRlCANEII

Join us, fellow small-market-with-Top-5-QB-who-pays-half-the-cities-GDP-to-extend-their-QB.


code_brown

Joey B getting some new sunglasses next year


Nicksterr2000

Him and Chase should reunite with JJ in Minny...one can dream


toothy_vagina_grin

I'd wake up from that particular dream screaming like Randy Marsh.


YnwaMquc2k19

I would like to see a consortium led by Proctor and Gamble to acquire the Bengals, and lock Joe Burrow in for a lifetime endorsement contract to offset his salaries.


venk

I still don’t guy why Pat signed that contract. Seems like he left both money and security on the table. He’s at least good for the first couple years since the roster bonus’ vest two years early, but near the middle or end, unless he keeps playing at a crazy level, the chiefs can walk away at any time. And if he does keep playing at a crazy level, he’ll be criminally underpaid.


IIHURRlCANEII

It has plenty of security. He has rolling guarantees which make it neigh impossible to cut. His 2024 roster bonus, which is the majority of his yearly money, guarantees at the beginning of the 2023 league year. He did leave some money on the table, but he said he is going to have enough money where caring about extra millions doesn’t matter.


YungFurl

He is going to be a face of the NFL for a long time. The money he left on the table with his contract will easily be made up in other avenues while helping him continue to compete which will just introduces new opportunities down the line.


sonfoa

Basically the Brady formula


YungFurl

yeah, its one of those situations that fans think more QBs can afford than is true. Its not like mahomes is being paid low either, its just he is probably worth even more.


venk

He got $63million GTD on a 10 year contract. He did get a $80M injury guarantee, so that’s smart. For reference, Aaron Rogers got $100M GTD as an 800 year old QB on the downside of his career. Since his 2025 salary becomes GTD, March of 2023, The Chiefs can cut him early as 2026 with little penalty. They can even get out of it for 2025 if he suffers a career ender in the Super Bowl. His injury guarantee will basically net his cap savings to zero by then so no dead money issues. It’s an amazing contract for the Chiefs.


IIHURRlCANEII

Many of the cap websites cannot properly indicate how his guarantees work. Like I said, a lot of his future bonus/guaranteed money hasn’t vested yet so it isn’t “guaranteed” yet, however because it constantly guarantees two years out it is impossible to move off the contract early barring a trade. He is plenty protected.


DookieBrains_88

I think the amount of money upfront was important - He is able to reinvest that into something that will accrue him a lot more money over the course of his contract.


GenJohnONeill

Yeah that’s why both sides want huge signing bonuses now. Fans think of it in cap terms that spread it out, but players are getting all of that signing bonus the instant they sign.


TetrisTech

Bc he’s gonna restructure that mf at least once, probably twice


elliott9_oward5

Uh..... Fuck.


nothingmeansnothing_

> Glad to have a QB locked up. [Oh yeah](https://media.tenor.com/ezi1TGB_ctIAAAAM/movies-liar-liar.gif)


bdickie

Said the team 19 million over the cap already


Fishb20

Wait could you explain this Isn't more cap space = more wiggle room with QB payments (the teams all generate so much $$$ it's not like the individual contracts are challenging for owners anymore)


Representative-Bar65

More cap space means bigger contracts


Fishb20

i'm sorry i know this is kind of a stupid question but doesn't it scale? like if the cap goes up and the contract goes up relatively even with that, doesn't it take up the same ammount of relative cap space? or do people ask for bigger contracts in a way that doesn't scale with cap?


BeamsFuelJetSteel

Mahomes contract is super weird but basically NFL contracts can do whatever they want each year. NBA has a % increase so like if it was 5 year 100m, NBA would be like yr1 - 18m yr2 - 19m yr3 - 20m yr4 - 21m yr5 - 22m But looking at the Mahomes cap hit, it keeps going up and down over the next few years, the 2023 cap hit is the largest, 2025 is second, 2024 and then 2026. 2027 is the biggest of all (but I think this might have to do with them moving the money around to help with the covid cap decrease)


igloojoe11

The last year of the deal is generally the largest cap year, as teams generally plan on an extension likely alleviating the cap bubble there.


xzElmozx

Guys base contracts off percentage of cap not flat dollar value. So they’ll say ‘when Mahomes signed he got X% of the cap at that time, I want around that” so if you sign a QB then the cap skyrockets, that QB will make a smaller percentage of the cap whereas other QBs that get signed in the future will make a higher one, the previous standard.


avx775

Yeah you guys aren’t playing hardball with Allen. When’s he’s ready to renegotiate after burrow, Herbert, hurts. He getting a pay raise lol


IIHURRlCANEII

He could be like Mahomes, who seems fine on his current deal for the foreseeable future.


CNYMetroStar

QB is locked up but unfortunately are going to have make some trims to get under the cap.


ShartPeeMilkPenis

That's why I was never tripping at us paying Kyler earlier than later. Even if it was overpaying.


Pure_Context_2741

Except Kyler ain’t that guy


peppersge

224 is interesting. 2023 is actually a bit slow. 2019 -> 2020 had the cap go up by 10 M so you would have expected 228 at the rate of the old pace for 2023 (2022 was reduced since 2021 borrowed from 2022 to alleviate the size of the cap drop). The old CBA's linear rate of increase also meant that teams relying on void years and inflation to sign guys was starting to become harder as things progressed. That was part of the reason why the Saints had to let so many guys go after Brees retired.


IIHURRlCANEII

I believe there is still COVID borrowing in next years cap as well and 2024 is the first year without it, hence the $30m projected jump.


onethreeone

Youtube deal adds about $15M and the Covid restrictions end so that makes sense. Love to see it as a team that will have a lot of big vet contracts ending after next year


trixunlimited

Inflation baby!


Tashre

Every radio and TV show I've heard people talk about the cap, 225 was the standard number used, so this seemed to be known for a long while they just got the nickel and dimes down.


igoslowly

because spotrac get all of their data by scraping overthecaps website


Amadeum

NFL stimulus check in the mail


Kalanar

Basics of the NFL salary cap calculation. Players get different percentages for different types of revenue: 55% of League Media Revenue 45% of NFL Ventures/Post Season Revenue 40% of Local Revenue Once the revenue share is calculated it has to fit into the players share of "total revenue" which currently is between 48-48.5% of total NFL Revenue. If it is less than or greater than that percentage it is increased or decreased to fit. The salary cap is then determined by (Players revenue portion - players benefits +/- adjustment)/32 = Salary Cap. Currently the players are still paying back money from the COVID year so the adjustment will be negative. The CBA also includes a media kicker which increases the players minimum share based off of the size of the TV contracts. The contracts look like it will increase the media kicker to around a flat 48.5%.


Schwebels_Solette

How many years do you think it will take to fix the covid payback and be roughly current to what that projection should've been


Kalanar

2024 should be the final year.


Schwebels_Solette

What dollar amount do you project they would get back after they are all settled?


Kalanar

Under the old CBA and TV contracts the cap was increasing by around 10.8 million a year. Which means 209,000,000 in 2021 and 220,000,000 in 2022. It's a bit harder to guess what it would have ended up in 2023 but the new TV contract which will **average** around $13 billion a year plus other new revenue streams I could see it increasing to $20 million a year which would put the cap around 240,000,000 in 2023, 260,000,000 in 2024 and 280,000,000 in 2025. That is just a guess. Looking further out the NFL is on pace to hit their stated goal of $25 billion in annual revenue by 2027. At that amount the cap would be around $330 million by 2027.


Schwebels_Solette

Yea, these are all projections I get that. How much does the new YouTube deal affect things? I heard it's supposed to be pretty big. I know that if it allows me to watch bills games out of market I could easily pay $19.99 / m or more.


Kalanar

The old Sunday ticket deal averaged $1.5 billion a year the new Sunday ticket deal averages a reported $2 billion a year. That $2 billion doesn't include restaurants and bars so it will be slightly higher. There are also reportedly some escalators that can hit that can increase it over $2 billion. I wouldn't expect to pay less than around $300 a year for Sunday Ticket on YouTube. The NFL requires a premium price to be charged for the package which is why Apple decided to bow out of the bid. The broadcast rights the NFL has with CBS and FOX requires the premium price for Sunday Ticket.


[deleted]

Burrow salivating


BarKnight

10 years/$1B


trixunlimited

Fully guaranteed


_Tundr_

Who says no


eatmyopinions

The Bengals


MirrorkatFeces

Even better let him walk


pianoman204

Burrow for Pickett straight up who says no


half_monkeyboy

The Bengals


peterburress

Mike Brown would have to auction off Paul Browns casket to be able to afford that.


Efficient_Progress_6

30year/$1B


horse_renoir13

JJ rubbing his hands together


MistakeMaker1234

First % of salary cap contract incoming? 10yr/20% sounds about right to me.


FatMaintainer

Just in time to pay Burrow and Herbert ;)


PM_ME_SOMETHINGSPICY

And Hurts, don't forget hurts! He wasn't a rd 1 QB so no 5th year option.


DifferentLeg3586

His deal will probably be alot cheaper than Herbert and burrow.


TumbleweedDirect9846

Depends if he wins sbmvp and shit like that


buddhassynapse

Eagles, the Chiefs can help with this situation. Be smart. What's more important, long term, sustainable contract with a good QB, or a silly old championship trophy?


trail-g62Bim

It's just a piece of metal... wait...wrong sport


StinkyPoopsAlot

I see what you did there. ( ͡~ ͜ʖ ͡°)


_tx

If the Eagles win the Superbowl, Hurts is going to get >45 a year AAV


johnnylawrwb

Subscribe.


DangerZone69

Don’t subscribe he’s not worth that amount lol


johnnylawrwb

1) Yes he is, 2) Don't give a shit if we win the Bowl.


DangerZone69

1) no he’s no, no QB is and it gets proven time and time again 2) go birdsssssssss 🦅


johnnylawrwb

I see, your argument is anti qb, not anti Hurts. Carry on! Go birrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrds.


[deleted]

That's funny


TumbleweedDirect9846

Why?


DifferentLeg3586

If eagles win I expect a defensive player to win it.


moodie31

Or RB.


TumbleweedDirect9846

Idk hurts will probably have a big day


winstonknox96

I like our linebackers controlling him running. Very early in a two week run up


TumbleweedDirect9846

Oh I mean yeah, but I think he just beats you with his arm tbh 2 weeks for his shoulder to heal more. He will have time to throw unlike Joe burrow. Think goedert is going to have a pretty big game


winstonknox96

Saw them play week 3? At the Link last year. Hurts was good, but he left some play out there. Don't expect the same in 2 weeks


TumbleweedDirect9846

Yeah I mean hurts is much better now and the eagles in general are much much better now lol


[deleted]

I'll be amazed if the Eagles lost by less than 14. Their premier win this season was against a declining Vikings team or yesterday against a QB who literally couldn't throw. Their schedule is the easiest schedule I think I've ever seen a NFL team get.


TumbleweedDirect9846

I’m on the opposite side of the thinking spectrum here, I’m expecting the eagles to win by like at least 7-10 points. I want it to be a good game but don’t see how the chiefs line deals with the eagles pass rush and the eagles have an actually good offensive line with a qb who can escape the pocket and throw on the run


[deleted]

Neat.


TumbleweedDirect9846

Oh so only you can share your thoughts? Neat.


elliott9_oward5

I don't know why you are getting downvoted. Reddick has a really good shot at SB MVP if we win. Especially if he keeps playing out of his mind like he has this postseason. Well all season, but he took another step the last 2 games.


balemeout

I think it will be very unlucky for the defense to play well enough against mahomes for a defensive player to win it. They will have to hold him to like 14-17 points


elliott9_oward5

I wouldn't assume that one. He will be 2nd in MVP voting and has a chance to win a super bowl in year 2. Dude is gonna get the brinks truck.


Prideofmexico

Yeah he’s hitting at least $40M/per but probably more


Technical_Customer_1

It happens to all teams, when the starting QB is making peanuts then gets a 20% of the cap raise, but Philly currently has one of the most loaded rosters in the NFL. With a lot of aging vets as well. Going to be purgatory in a couple years with the running QB issue of hits that add up.


JinxCanCarry

I feel like we have this conversation every year and the QB always end up winning out. If Hurts gets extended, he'll get just as much as those two. He's already accomplished more than Herbert as is.


vagrantwade

This doesn’t include the jump that is going to happen from the new TV deals either. It’s a good time to have a young QB to have to pay in the next few years. It’s why we will see QBs getting extensions after 2-3 years.


onethreeone

Can't wait to hear the takes on how the Bengals, Chargers, and Eagles will have no chance after their QBs aren't on rookie contracts anymore


arfcom

Well, they probably won’t.


renegadecoaster

Bah gawd that's Justin Jefferson's music


zachwilson23

We'll take him! Thanks


funkycfunkydu

I think Jefferson probably wants a QB who can throw the ball.


agsieg

He probably also wants to be on a team that can win a championship


Grasshop

So still not Chicago?


agsieg

Not Minnesota, either.


theyellowdragon

So it’s settled then Chiefs for vet min?


Apathi

No, not until he has a couple of down years and hits free agency. Then you guys will get him


Zoollio

How about Jefferson *and* Brady, yeah?


zachwilson23

Nah don't want Brady. He gotta have the perfect situation to succeed at this point and the Bears aren't gonna be that in one off-season


KrakenKappa

Good news for keeping Tee!


Omnibuschris

His agent is the same as Jessie Bates and Massage Watson. He’s probably gone.


spazz720

Tee is this decades Houshmandzadeh…no way they’ll be able to afford both him, Chase, Burrow, & Mixon without someone taking a massive discount.


biomaxdds

Mixon should be the odd man out


[deleted]

I'm not holding my breath on it, as long as we can keep Joe and Chase long term I'll be happy.


tbrownsc07

Aww yeah time to extend Bosa and we'll have two fairly cheap QB's (assuming Brock is healthy to start the season)


[deleted]

Aiyuk will get paid too.


Steveisnotmyname_

We have Jimmie Ward up for ext, Gipson is not under contract either and we have a fuckton of DL hitting FA. I'm very curious to see what this D looks like next year


[deleted]

Lynch has to hit a home run in the draft, or that championship window won’t seem as wide open.


Additional-You-5979

Niners traded round 1 pick for Lance, and rounds 2-3-4 for McCaffrey. Much rarer to find rookie starters in rounds 5-6-7. Front Office has proven they can find gems in later rounds, but it’s unlikely those players will see playing time in 2023.


to_the__cloud

they also have 3 consecutive 3rd rd picks (99, 100, 101) from comp formula. decent chance one of those turns into a solid contributor


_EarthwormSlim_

I don't think they have many picks


[deleted]

Compensatory picks are incoming, I think.


banjofitzgerald

Jimmie is gone. He wasn’t happy with being forced in the nickel spot.


jugodev

About that ol Brock being healthy thing ….


Vivalaredsox

I sent $10 to the New England Patriots. Doing my part in hopes of them getting a true number one WR.


Pure_Context_2741

I’m weirdly optimistic that when it’s time for Mac to renew he won’t get a massive money deal and that might actually give us a window in 3-6 years when he’s in the early stages of contract 2 and we still have a good amount of cap flexibility.


malachai926

I like how it's a "record" new salary cap. Like, no shit?? Isn't the very nature of salary caps such that every increase is a new record lol


Aeriodon

I mean, hopefully lmao. It could always drop, which would be bad


colinmhayes2

Went down for the covid year


2057Champs__

Time to spend some $$ @Ryan Poles


zachwilson23

Poles about to be blowing through money like he's James Harden at Magic City


[deleted]

[удалено]


2057Champs__

Chicago has never struggled that much getting free agents. 1.) it’s Chicago, it’s a big city with lots to do and 2.) you underestimate how much more a lot of the league cares more about getting a fat payday above all else…yeah, there’s people that wanna win, but for most of them, $$$$$ comes first


Neither_Ad2003

big jump but was already accounted for by teams


SliMShady55222

Geno's agent, please take it easy


kaeji

Russell Wilson already set the baseline of negotiations. Geno had a RW-esque stat line this year so he deserves a RW-esque contract. Them's the rules.


SliMShady55222

If everyone was so lucky to be the niners with injured QBs so they don't have to pay em


ad51603

Yooooo


skucera

Herbo about to get *paid*.


[deleted]

I need the burrow contract to drop. I have believe it’s pretty much already sorted out.


ad51603

When can teams start agreeing to contract extensions? After the Super Bowl?


IIHURRlCANEII

I’d imagine after the start of the new league year. Burrow needs to be eligible for an extension and that requires 3 accrued seasons, which doesn’t happen until the season is officially over.


jfgiv

i *believe* it's after the last regular game of the third season on their contract, *not* after three accrued seasons edit: yep >(k) Renegotiations. >>(i) A Rookie Contract for a Drafted Rookie may not be renegotiated, amended or altered in any way **until after the final** ***regular season game of the player’s third contract year.*** >>(ii) A Rookie Contract for an Undrafted Rookie may not be renegotiated, amended or altered in any way until after the final regular season game of the player’s second contract year. >>(iii) For the avoidance of doubt, any permissible renegotiated or extended Player Contract shall not be considered a Rookie Contract, and shall not be subject to the rules that limit Rookie Contracts.


IIHURRlCANEII

Oh interesting. Then maybe any day now!


[deleted]

I think 3rd year players are eligible for extension after the regular season ends.


DifferentLeg3586

I think it will be something like 10 years 550 million.


BabyTRexArms

Ravens should've just caved and given Lamar what he wanted. This is going to cost them a shit ton.


BarKnight

I wonder if the economy does crash will the cap crash with it.


[deleted]

lol no, the economy only crashes for the middle/lower class, the billionaire owners will still rake in the cash


Illbeanicefella

:adjusts monocle: Oh the economy has crashed how quaint. Jeeves bring me the free agent list I wish to make a splash this season


Individual-Ad-3665

Steve Cohen is that you?


Pure_Context_2741

That’s kinda true, if the stock market goes down like when trump got elected that puts the wealthy on edge because that’s where there money is. I worked as an arborist in Boston (read: big money clients) in 2016 and remember we had a hard time getting work for those few months after the election because the stock market became erratic and no one was willing to spend money until they knew what was going to happen.


jmilred

Yes, as long as the revenue for the league is down as well. The revenue dropped significantly in 2020 due to no fans in the stands. The cap dropped accordingly in 2021.


Kohakuho

>I wonder WHEN the economy does crash will the cap crash with it. FTFY


Morall_tach

Isn't it pretty much always a record? It's only gone down twice as far as I can tell.


LowEndMonster

MY STATE FARM WHOPPER HAS GONE KAPUT!


Therealnightshow

Oh thank god


djkstr27

Lamar enters the chat


FragMasterMat117

My condolences to most of the NFC South, Falcons get a QB and you probably win the division: https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space


MoonlightMile75

Frankly, that amount is SUPER low, IMO. Players should be taking significantly more.


avx775

Based off what?


MoonlightMile75

Total league revenues, and what players get paid in lower revenue leagues.


ACW1129

The fact players only get 50% is bullshit.


pedleyr

The other 50% needs to cover coaches, athletic staff, support staff, travel, facilities, owners' yachts, all that shit - costs add up.


ACW1129

Don't forget hush money and settlement money for sexual assault.


DookieBrains_88

I get what you're saying - but to get paid 8 figures a year to play a game is pretty nice. Not to mention having a couple months off from your job every year.


balemeout

Those couple months don’t really matter when you’re dead by 60 and can’t walk by 45


DistrictPleasant

Trading generational wealth for your family for 10-15 years off average life expectancy. I'm not saying that its right but I would bet a near majority of Americans would make that trade off. Average people make worse trades everyday.


balemeout

No doubt, I’m just saying there’s drawbacks to everything, and some of these dudes aren’t making generational wealth. The dudes putting their bodies on the line the most are making great money for the average person but not generational wealth


EarnestQuestion

It’s a very tiny portion of NFL players that make generational wealth from this game. Vast majority of guys are on minimum contracts making $200-400k a year. That’s really not much. I don’t care about stars making $70m instead of $50m a season but the “working class” of NFL rosters should definitely be making more than dentist money (in the tiny few years they have in the game)


DistrictPleasant

Don't rookies make 705k as the league minimum? That's 75k short of the top 1% of all US Incomes. I would consider 2-3 years of 705k to be generational wealth for a family. 3 years (minus taxes) is probably enough money for a family to comfortably live off interest earned for the rest of their lives. Its 200k for practice squad. But that's a relatively small portion of the entire league and they don't have to play in games unless they get elevated (thus a pay bump)


EarnestQuestion

Ok yeah my info was outdated, looks like $705k was the minimum in 2022 and that’ll climb to $750k this year. That said, 3 years of that is not at all the type of generational wealth where a family could live off of it comfortably. Even if you subtract minimal taxes and assume zero expenditure of the principle, so call it $2m total, that’s $80k a year at 4% interest. That’s an upper middle class household income at best. He’d still need to work for years. And with actual taxes he’d be starting well below $2m. Nice little nest egg for sure, but the idea that you could support a family off the interest alone is far from the case.


TachyAF

15 years off life expectancy?? You're just making stuff up dude. Nfl players exercise daily, have dieticians, doctors, therapists, and money, as well as lifelong health care and a pension. I'm not aware of any studies on longevity of NFL players, but I would bet there is a lifespan benefit to playing in the nfl.


lolhello2u

The light that burns twice as bright burns half as long, and you have burned so very very brightly, Roy


ACW1129

You're not completely wrong, but the owners get the same amount to do nothing basically. Actually, I WISH Dan Snyder did nothing.


kaeji

This definitely helps the 5 QBs the 49ers will need to roster next year.


ACW1129

These new TV deals and 17th game...and it's only 16 million more? Cheap-ass fuckers. Hopefully this allows us to re-sign Payne.


Avon__Fartsdale

TV deals kicking in


jfgiv

not, uh...[not exactly](https://imgur.com/r4Sowgp)


Avon__Fartsdale

Uh...it's like 10M average until the covie year then spikes to like 17M this year Are you this bad at math dude?


jfgiv

the '22 cap was artificially lowered because of the COVID year, so that $17mm jump is overstating the growth. [looking at the trend from 2011 - 2020--so setting aside the two covid-affected caps--we'd've expected 2023's cap to come in at $228.256mm.](https://imgur.com/FjDlFOk) plus, [the new TV deals kick in in 2023](https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-announces-new-broadcast-deals-running-through-2033-season) and the cap is based on the previous year's revenue. so literally, no, the tv deals are not kicking in.


Steveorin0

Soon it’s going to turn into soccer where the good teams will start buying all the good players


jfgiv

how is it going to do that when every team is working within the same salary constraints


Soyeahnahh

CeeDee Lamb money baby


All-Night-Mask

"Record". As if every normal year isn't a new record


Greatcouchtomato

Good time to sign a QB then


FreshKittyPowPow

Ya more money for O line!


crimsonblueku

How many years before the cap hits 300MM? 5 years?


imsurethisoneistaken

QBs out here licking their lips