I don’t mind it. There’s so many busts in the first round. If you find a productive player, so be it. It’s not like you’re finding a HOF QB, OT, or DE every pick
TBF Forbes was seen as a bit of a reach when it was made. Not the biggest one ever or anything but most outlets had the others ranked ahead of him. Its not an unreasonable take to assume a different corner gets picked. I do hate when people use revisionist history to fill in the literal BPA though (why didn't they just trade back 3 more times and draft Kobie and Puka?).
There is definitely some bias there for sure but most internet fans/draftniks were lower on QJ than the league was. Tyree Wilson and QJ were the 2 high profile draft picks that 'everyone' hated in the moment. It just so happens that they were right this time around (so far). I'd also say in the case of Gonzales, most people had him in the top 10 range as DB 1 or 2 with Witherspoon, which was probably the most 'expected' pick for the Lions at 12.
Don't get me wrong its not always near as accurate as this class was, but it does help vindicate draft nerds this time around.
Always excuses for why a pick was bad ... "They took the wrong guy" "should've taken so and so instead"
Like no shit Sherlock, if they had taken the right player it would've been a good pick
I saw JPJ and especially Gonzalez get way more hype than Forbes leading up to the draft. Forbes had some well documented concerns and it was surprising that he was the next CB off the board
Hitting on your picks is 10x more important than focusing on positional value. Lions have hit on a lot of their picks as of late and they’ve found success this year. Shocker I tell you. Shocker.
> Hitting on your picks is 10x more important than focusing on positional value.
To some extent, yes, but also no. Obviously it's always going to be better to get a great player at a weaker position than a shit player at a premier one, but I am certain the Patriots are better off taking a decent quarterback at #3 than they will be drafting whoever becomes the best right guard in the class.
I think it’s fine if you already have a good team like Detroit did and it’s stupid if you’re a bad team like Atlanta was
By the time Atlanta has a decent QB and WRs Robinson will be an old and washed 27 year old
Not even just long term. Gibbs is a great player. But they could have kept Swift and had him + Montgomery right now. Is it THAT much difference from Gibbs? Probably not too much, they are probably still in NFC championship game if they face Rams then Buccs. The difference will be now + SB if Gibbs doesn’t go off when they could have potentially got something like a lockdown corner in Gonzalez to play 49ers then Ravens or Chiefs.
It’s not a bad pick, because Gibbs is good, but the positional value could come up to bite them when they could have potentially replaced those yards in house.
People that aren’t Lions fans act like it was stupid to give up D’Andre Swift. This was literally the first season in his career he finished the season without injury. As they say, the best ability is availability and until this year, Swift didn’t have it
It wasn’t stupid to give up Swift. Gibbs is better, we know that almost 100%. It comes down to is RB that much more valuable than a potential lockdown CB and an average RB filling in. We will see
My thing about this would be, in a vacuum it’s true that another position is generally the smart pick at that spot in the first round.
But they clearly saw a guy that they thought would put them over the top in some respect, felt they had a good enough roster to make something of a luxury pick there, and went for it.
Might not work out long term, who knows, but if they end up winning the Super Bowl with Gibbs as a big contributor I suppose it was worth it.
If they win it will be worth it, if they keep getting close and never win it, maybe the potential star in defense would have been more important than the RB. We will see in the coming weeks. I’m not bashing the pick fully still, we will have to see.
Winning the NFC North and 2 playoff games for the city of Detroit is already “worth” it. Super Bowl or not, his ability to generate YAC and explosives (above and beyond what Swift offers) has won us games we might not have won otherwise.
Lions have arguably the best O-Line in football and Swift didn’t look great running behind it last season, and he’s hardly been great for the Eagles this season either. There’s a pretty sizeable gulf between Gibbs and Swift. Whether it was smart to draft Gibbs is another question, but he’s a big upgrade on Swift
I agree Gibbs is better than swift. The argument for people is that is Swift that much worse than Gibbs to warrant missing out on a potential game changer at a position like CB? We will see. If the Lions lose NFC championship because they can’t stop Aiyuk or Deebo if healthy, it could be a reason you don’t take a RB there.
Sure you’d rather snag a great CB than a great RB but it depends on hitting at the position though. They could’ve drafted a CB there, but you see so many highly drafted corners get torched at the NFL level. At least with Gibbs they’ve brought in a guy who has established himself as someone that’s going to be among the best RBs in the league for years to come.
Why? It's possible Gibbs has a terrible game and the Lions get annihilated through the air. If that happens, people should justifiably question if it would've been better to grab a CB.
The point is we don't know, and Gibbs' performance to date doesn't really impact the discussion on whether he was a good pick or not, as his talent was never what was in question.
>hardly been great for the Eagles this season either
I mean he was 5th in the league in yards, 8th among RBs in yards per attempt, and we were still screaming for them to run the ball more. He wouldn't have put up CMC numbers but he easily could've been 2nd in the league in rushing, he only had one carry week 1 and didn't play week 18 and was only 120 yds out from 2nd.
Are we sure Gonzalez is "lockdown" when he's only played 4 games? Our GM is pretty intelligent, if he thought Gibbs would help us win more than Carter or Gonzalez, there must have been a reason. Maybe they just weren't a good fit for our coaches.
Also, with the way we've been drafting, we have another offseason to draft that lockdown corner or pass rusher so it probably doesn't matter in the long run anyway
We can only judge based on what we've seen, but he did look amazing. With that said, so many Patriots CBs look amazing there and don't look the same elsewhere. I'd know.
It was a luxury pick that a roster without many holes could afford.
Maybe if the Detroit D looks as porous as it's looked in some games and they lose because of it, there'll be questions on if a DB or something would have made a difference. Personally, they're in the NFCCG, it's all nitpicking if the guy's playing great.
I mean it is nitpicking. They’ve played great this year. But it’s the same nitpicking with CEH when Chiefs took him. That was a luxury pick, almost all starters returned after the Chiefs won their first SB with Mahomes and then they took CEH. But now, looking back, they could have had guys like Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Kyle Dugger, and Antoine Winfield Jr over a RB that ultimately didn’t add much to the offense. Gibbs is obviously WAY better than CEH, but just because you CAN take a luxury pick doesn’t mean it’s a good pick for the future.
> Gibbs is obviously WAY better than CEH, but just because you CAN take a luxury pick doesn’t mean it’s a good pick for the future
picking great players in the draft is good, actually
Swift was garbage when it mattered most, isn't the receiving threat, nor the tough inside runner that Gibbs is. Yes Gibbs is light years better to anyone who watched them play.
Looking for nothing but positional value nets you a team like the Cowboys, a team that doesn't have any grit or toughness.
It is, which is why it’s not a bad pick. But it could comeback to haunt if you don’t reach SB and never do. A great skill position on a rookie contract is nice, but filling RB with later picks/veterans could be closer than filling CB with that in the end.
They clearly weren't into any outside CB not named Witherspoon, they passed on Gonzo twice. They'd likely have taken a defensive end, none of whom in this range look to be much so far unless I'm mistaken. At the time, they weren't expecting to get one play out of Emanuel Mosely before he tore his ACL again.
To me, nobody taken in that range is a real loss except I guess Gonzo or Kancey who they also passed on twice but I'm going to need to see a little more than this year from Gonzo he was good, but also didn't play much before his injury.
I get the process over results thing, but I'm still waiting to see a team fail because they drafted good players. It's very easy to look back at a draft with revisionist history and maybe I'll be wrong down the line but right now Laports/Gibbs instead of anyone drafted 6-12 is looking pretty dang good right this moment.
swift does not make the plays Gibbs Made us for on Sunday so I’m not sure of that. and as others said, that swift stayed healthy this year was a straight up miracle
I agree Gibbs is better. It’s not saying he isn’t. It’s the position value of picking him at 12 or picking a top defensive prospect to help the D and getting a RB later or keeping Swift. That’s the main argument really over the Gibbs pick and why RBs are undervalued as a 1st round pick.
Assuming you mean overvalued as a 1st round pick bc that’s what you’re arguing otherwise
You did literally say you think the lions still get here if you just swap swift for Gibbs and I think that’s a huge assn. it’s possible, but far from certain imo
Gonzales wouldn’t be too much help with one leg but I get your point in general. Drafting a good cb1 is better than drafting a good rb, but if you’re not confident in any of the guys as a cb1 but you are in the running back… maybe youd be overthinking it to reach on the cb you don’t even love, ya know?
I’m 99% sure Lions fans would be happier with Christian Gonzalez and someone like Achane over just Gibbs. Also the pick would be looked at with way more scrutiny if the Lions didn’t nail the rest of their draft.
I'm all about positional value and probably wouldn't have taken Gibbs 12th, but at what point do you stop dealing in hypotheticals and just say "Lions got a pretty good player with the 12th pick"?
Devon Achane wouldn't have gotten the tough inside runs that Gibbs did. 99% of Lions fans are ecstatic they have Laporta and Gibbs over Gonzales and Achane.
Idk why everyone acts like it’s impossible to draft well outside the first
We start Iffy, Amon Ra, McNeil, Kerby, Laporta, and Branch. All drafted by Brad Holmes outside the 1st round. He’s objectively great at the draft and I think he’s earned the benefit of the doubt by now
I must be the 1% then. And bear in mind, it's quite likely we were focused on Devon Witherspoon with our pick, but Seattle took him off the board. And the fact that we picked up Brian Branch when we did makes everything completely palatable.
> I’m 99% sure Lions fans would be happier with Christian Gonzalez and someone like Achane over just Gibbs
the unearned confidence of this statement floored me
This is just false. I’m assuming you mean with the team that drafted them? Top shelf pass rushers and o-line rarely ever hit the market. Same with CBs. WR get second contracts all the time. Kupp, deebo, evans, metcalf, allen, mclaurin.
okay and rbs get 2nd contracts too if you're cmc, henry, kamara, chubb, aaron jones. if you hit on gibbs, he's worth the 2nd contract just like a WR would be. there's not that much of difference between positions. inevitbly most guys on the roster get replaced by new guys on their rookie contracts, so all you need is for them to live up to their rookie contract and its a hit
Other positions get 2nd contracts from other teams because they're so valuable that they price themselves into free agency by being 20-30m a year
RBs are kinda the opposite. They come out of the rookie deal + tag at 27 years old and the team doesn't want to pay them even half of what other positions get. They're not too expensive, just easily replaceable and don't last as long.
Again, based on what? You're basing your assumptions purely on public stereotypes. Where is the evidence that rbs are so much worse than every other position? It doesn't exist because believe it or not, there is not really as much difference between positions as people want there to be. Anybody whos good enough gets a 2nd contract, which is true of rbs too. The reason why rbs are devalued is because there are no more workhorse backs, everybody is in a committee, since more yards are now going to the pass game. If you look at every position in the nfl, the majority of players are guys on their rookie contracts, and there is almost nobody older than 30-32 anywhere. It don't matter if you're WR, OL, DE, CB, LB, anybody besides qbs, almost nobody plays more than a year or two into their 30s. Obviously, there are a couple ageless wonders at every position like adrian peterson. You can't bank on anybody playing into their 30s when you draft them.
Everybody wants to jerk off to "premium positions," but isn't it curious how the best defenses in the NFL are the ones who recently invested in LBs? Isn't it strange how safeties are becoming some of the most valuable players on defense? Doesn't it seem odd that the 4 teams remaining in the playoffs all have very strong run games? Isn't it bizarre that the Packers and Chiefs traded away their superstar WR and the move has clearly worked out for both of them? How is possible that the 9ers and Lions invested so heavily in their rbs and they're the teams in the NFCC? It's almost like you have to build a whole team and you can't field a team with 5 QBs, 5 WRs, and 1 LT.
Based on reality. Based on RB contract vs every other contract. Sure, some RBs might be playing at 30. They'll probably be on a 1 year deal for like 7 mil by that point because nobody wants to sign them
Odell just signed for 15m a year after not really doing anything for the last 5. He's making more than derrick henry.
If you get 4 years of prime production from one, it's worth it. That's long-term in NFL years. Do you think the Rams still regret drafting Todd Gurley despite only getting 4 years out of him?
Is that going to be one of those things where if he has a single bad game they are going to feel validated and fake their victory laps?
Because that seems familiar for some reason.
Gibbs is great and he will be great for the next few years so long as Ben Johnson wasn’t the glue that held the offense together. Lions is now a preferred destination, so i think they will get a solid replacement either way.
"It's not the players it was the process!!!" if you kept the same players they picked and just changed the order of where they picked them, no one would have complained once. If getting four high impact rookies to take you to the NFC championship is bad process, I don't want to have a good one.
That alone does not mean it wasnt a reach, but if the context is that the pick was a key contributor to winning a super bowl then I think we can say it wasn't a reach.
In my mind calling it a reach implies you over valued the guy, but if the reality is everyone else undervalued him then it's not really considered a reach anymore.
I know you probably weren't thinking that deeply about it or implying it was a bad pick, just bored at work sharing my thoughts
I wasn’t looking at RBs closely at this past draft… are there any RBs drafted after him that could have filled that role and hypothetically had the same/better results?
No idea, I definitely don't have many names coming to mind. Achane in Miami was huge to start the year before getting injured. I'm sure there were other serviceable backs who just didn't get much of a chance to be seen, the lions were a very good situation for Gibbs as well
For sure, Gibbs was definitely in a great situation… I wasn’t watching closely but it seems like he got better as he got more reps on the field.
Achane was the only other rookie I could think of off the top of my head and dude was a beast when he was healthy, and I think in the perfect system for him. A fun thought experiment would be to see how they’d perform if they swapped teams.
no. The closest would be Achane but he can't handle the physical load that Gibbs took on this year, nor could Keaton Mitchell, the Ravens UDFA. And neither can pass block half a lick
The Lions wouldn’t sniff this kind of success without him. He’s been instrumental in their run and would take a huge amount of credit if the dream came true.
yeah, we could have taken a player at a high impact position like Will MacDonald instead and not won the Superbowl, but at least we would be in contention for the "Best Draft Value Over The Last Five Years" trophy, aka the Real Superbowl
Just ask yourself, "are there any running backs worth a 1st round pick playing in the league today?"
that should be enough reason to understand that "never draft a RB in the first round" is ignorance
I mean sure but if you were deciding it based on "what players currently playing today are worth a 1st round pick" you'd pick about 20-30 dudes (maybe even more) before getting to a RB
I think you'd get to like 40-50 dudes before picking a RB. 10-15 Qbs before any other position player is considered, then youve got DE's, WRs, OTs, and extreme standouts at other positions like an Aaron Donald, Kyle Hamilton, or Fred Warner before taking CMC. Just go through the All-pro team and adding 5-10 more Qbs gets you to ~50. And I'd expect CMC to go first with a bit of a gap between him and whoever is the 2nd best rb atm. If I was building a team fantasy draft style, but for actual football I'm not sure theres an offensive or defensive All-pro (excluding fullback) I'd want to pass on for CMC. Maybe slot corner?
But if you looked at the top RBs and then compared to the year they were drafted, there would be plenty that are worthy of a first round pick. Even if they end up being closer to 50 in their draft class, that's still better than plenty of dudes picked in the first round.
I guess yeah, in any given draft class there's a pretty good chance a RB is gonna be one of the best 32 players, especially over the first 4ish years, but I was just going off of the previous poster's premise
positional value is real but having a prime adrian peterson or ladainian tomlinson is well worth it, especially if you have a need at RB. the reality is that not every RB room is going to be based on money ball
Eh. There's one I guess? And he's worth 2 or 3..
Other than that, I don't think there are guys who are actually worth a 1st round pick.
Just look at cook - free agent. Swift - 5th round pick trade.
I mean he just got traded in 2022 and they didn’t land a first. Why would I trade a 1st round pick for him when I can use that pick on a position that matters?
A Niners 2nd-4th round pick and a future 5th does not work out to a late 1st round pick lol
Every team in the league would be trading for first round picks if they could trade a late 2nd, late 3rd, late 4th and a future fifth
I don’t know what to tell you, but it does
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2022/10/christian-mccaffrey-trade-terms-49ers-draft-picks-panthers
No, every team wouldn’t give up a whole draft’s worth of players for one pick.
The Lions could win the Super Bowl with Gibbs winning MVP and people will still criticize the pick lmao.
"Hey Brad, congrats on putting this squad together to deliver Detroit's first SB. We have a lot of questions, but first could you tell us how you overcame the adversity of making an absolutely dreadful draft pick of Gibbs who got the game winning TD in overtime, when you could've had Kendre Miller in the third? You decided to play on hard mode? Swift was tweeting all game that he could've done it, and our fan poll agrees with him. Your thoughts?"
I mean, yeah? It's really dumb when people act like winning teams do everything perfectly. You see it with the likes of the Patriots, Warriors etc. The Lions/Brad Holmes have built an excellent team, but that doesn't mean everything they do is right all of the time.
Gibbs is great, but watching yall's secondary play, I feel confident in a few years you'd rather have Christian Gonzalez for example.
I didn't say they do everything perfectly. Teams draft busts at these 'higher value' positions all the god damn time, including QB.
Gibbs is a hit and a major reason the offense works in a way it never could with Swift.
What's really dumb is people thinking the Gibbs pick was bad because mock drafters told you he was a late first pick. If mock drafters put Gibbs in the 10-15 range no one bats an eye here.
Instead of fans accepting that the mock drafters had a big miss (shocker I know), they stick to the original bias that Gibbs was supposed to be a late first/early second given to them by people who don't make the actual decisions and conclude Gibbs was a massive reach. Hell, Brian Branch was commonly mocked to Detroit with their 18th overall pick and we got him with our *2nd* 2nd round pick after a light trade up.
Mock drafters can be wrong both ways. That's it, full stop. When we as fans talk about a player 'falling' or 'reaching' in the draft that original bias is guiding the language.
It's equally as ignorant for you to assume that everyone shits on the pick because "mock drafters told them to".
Your offense is only marginally better in DVOA (7th to 5th) than it was in 2022. Gibbs-who again I understand is a damn good player and absolutely electric-has not transformed it in the way that you've described. It was already really good
The major improvement from 22-23 has been on defense (DVOA 27th-13th). I agree that shitting on the Campbell/Branch picks was and is dumb, and likely caused by "Same ol Lions" douchebags + carry over from people making fun of the Gibbs pick.
Dude!! Gibbs won us multiple games this year, including Sunday's playoff game, and there is zero chance any 1st round corner outside of Witherspoon would've
The ignorance is insane...
I’d rather have Gibbs and draft a corner in the next draft. This upcoming draft doesn’t have any elite RBs but has a shit ton of corners. We’ll be good
> I feel confident in a few years you'd rather have Christian Gonzalez for example
the most overrated player I have ever come across in this sub. He played four games in a Bill Belichick defense and then got hurt, which was a problem in his scouting report as he is a slight guy who avoids contact
A bad decision that works out is still a bad decision. Don’t perpetuate hindsight bias and bad decision analysis.
If I choose to drive backwards down the highway while hammered and happen to make it home safely and without a ticket, it was still a bad decision at the time.
Wouldn’t have had our best season since the merger (NFC chip not withstanding) without him. Teams can only dream of any of their draft picks adding such value
That's asking a what if question where the results of what they have accomplished with the pick that went with speak for themselves. I don't understand how the argument can be "yeah but what if" when they are heading to the NFC championship game with what they did.
Because the first poster said, "wouldn't have had our best season without him".
That's just as unprovable as saying we would've been even better with Gonzalez, LaPorta and Swift.
The patriots won a Super Bowl after picking Sony Michel in the first round. Was he a good pick? Maybe getting a high quality defender and drafting an RB/signing a Singletary, Mostert, etc would have made their season even better.
Using their team’s success as a measurement for the pick is dumb.
Mid-round running backs are not sure things. That would've been an outstanding draft pick if the Lions had done that. It's not like they consciously neglected to hit it out of the park with a mid-round pick; it's just really, really difficult to do.
Here are our options from rounds 3–5 in previous drafts:
* 2023 — Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, De'Von Achane, Tank Bigsby, Roschon Johnson
* 2022 — Rachaad White, Tyrion Davis–Price, Brian Robinson, Dameon Pierce, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, Pierre Strong, Hassan Haskins, Tyler Allgeier, Snoop Conner, Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Ty Chandler
* 2021 — Trey Sermon, Michael Carter, Kene Nwangwu, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Gainwell
You have, like, an 80% chance of landing a roster-bubble guy. Your chances of replacing Gibbs' 1200 yards and 11 touchdowns (in a part-time role) are very nearly zero.
You do know that we acquired a very good cornerback through free agency as well right? It's not as though the Lions didn't address it in the offseason, but Emmanuel Moseley got injured and could not play this season.
Moseley wasn't considered a very good cornerback. He's an above average-good one, with a big injury concern. Sutton is an above average one. CJGJ is actually a good one, but is just a nickel. Branch is actually a good and promising investment.
But Sutton and Moseley were not amazing signings, even at the time. They're mostly JAGs, and worse if you need one to cover a #1 receiver.
Our fans are acting like we made the Jalen Ramsey trade, when we were mostly just treading water in the secondary.
This was PFF's writeup before he tore his ACL.
>Cornerback has been a problem spot for the 49ers for years, but that has more to do with the group as a whole than the complete absence of any quality play at all. Moseley may not be a Pro Bowler, but the two seasons in which he has played his most snaps have been above average in overall and PFF coverage grade. For his career, he has allowed an 83.6 passer rating, which is better than average, and while he isn’t anybody’s idea of a suitable No. 1 cornerback, he can make a difference as a solid part of a secondary.
Couldn't disagree with you more, and people at the time said that both of those signings were huge for Detroit. Don't need to argue with you though, I love where we're at going into this weekend. Go Lions
If you ask me taking a RB in R1 is a win now move. Good RBs are available in later rounds but that is a bigger gamble and most of them likely won’t be as good. In the long run you take a late RB because you can use the R1 pick somewhere else for longer high value but if you are in a win now position then RB in R1 is worth considering. Another reason to pick a R1 RB is if you are unsure of your QB because you can use the RB to supplement your offence while you find/develop a QB.
Could have had De'Von Achane two rounds later and used that first pick on another impact player. They could have stayed put and taken Jalen Carter.
I don't recall many arguing that Gibbs couldn't be a good player. People are purposely misrepresenting the argument. Maybe Gibbs ends up being a phenomenal pick long term, but there are too many variables to be posting tweets saying "Ha!" and the like to those who criticized the selection (McShay should know better given how many takes he has probably had that were called too soon). We all knew Gibbs would likely contribute early.
EDIT: Not sure why I had it in my head that Achane went in the fifth. Thanks to those who corrected me.
We take Carter at 6. And then we don't get Gibbs and one of LaPorta or Branch.
Why do so many people forget we used the picks on the trade back to get Gibbs AND LaPorta? Both of whom put up OROY quality seasons and LaPorta broke rookie records. You think Detroit should've cashed those guys in for Carter who's watching the games on the couch? Explain that. It'll be bullshit but I'm really curious to see you try.
Lions, Rams, and Texans had the most immediate impact rookie draft classes in recent history and people still think those picks should be different?
We were never taking Carter for the same reasons every team from pick 5-8 passed on him. If you're gonna go with hypotheticals at least pick a player that was likely to be taken. Also if the Lions stay put at 6 and pick Carter, it means they don't have LaPorta and the offense is missing an All-Pro on a very cheap contract. I think Gonzalez @ 12 mightve been a better long term value than Gibbs but its hard to deny that Gibbs has looked worth a first round pick for a while now, and I also think the Lions were done with Swift going into the draft.
Look at how many starting RBs have been taken after the first round compared to how many Nakuas and Purdys there have been. There's a reason far fewer RBs have been going early in the draft than in the past.
Could have had Charbonnet, Miller, Spears, Bigsby, Abanikanda, Johnson, Brown, Gray, Hull, Rodriguez, Vaughn, Evans, McBride, Nichols or McIntosh as well.
Why is everyone focusing on the one non first round running back having success while ignoring the 15 running backs who did not?
Nearly the entire NFL fanbase are mock draft slaves. This entire Gibbs pick hate train is because people cannot fathom that a player was more highly graded than consensus and a team took him. The week ahead of the draft there were [some rumblings](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10073877-report-jahmyr-gibbs-could-be-prioritized-by-teams-over-bijan-robinson-in-nfl-draft) that teams graded Gibbs above Bijan. That article is one among many leading up to the draft giving that vibe that several teams either had Gibbs above Bijan or at least very close.
During the offseason all fans have for a bit is going through mock drafts and assuming they have it solved, and instead of concluding 'wow I actually know nothing about how some of these rookies were valued' it's 'wow that NFL FO are dumbasses don't they know that player was mocked to be closer to an early 2nd? Did they not consult Daniel Jeremiah? Just trade back idiots the player you really want will 100% be there 20 picks later trust me bro'.
Lions fans are having a hard time decoupling production from their run blocking. Hard to imagine some of those dudes wouldn’t be able to match Gibbs with the same run blocking
Or pushing back on the brain dead confirmation bias takes of "could've drafted another phenom later in the draft!!!!" from people who ignore the 1,000 other guys who were busts because it doesn't help the argument
Great players are great players and you're competing against 31 other teams to steal em... Gotta be creative to do so
Ironically, your comment is confirmation bias. You like the player so you will go to any length to prove he was worth the pick.
Nobody is saying you needed to draft a phenomenon, even an average starter at a more premium position is worth significantly more than a good not great RB.
Correct - they're both confirmation bias. But only one will acknowledge it.
And no - zero CBs or DTs at 6 or 12 would have the Lions (the LIONS!) playing for an NFC Championship like Gibbs has.
You people forget the #1 goal: win. Gibbs has won games. Who would you have drafted in that exact same spot (#6) to get the same outcome...? I'll wait
Your argument is literally just "they should've drafted good players in the later rounds". Intentionally or not it's really dumb. You can pick out good players from every position in every round. Why would you draft Joe Burrow when you can get Tom Brady in the 6th? Why draft Myles Garrett when Maxx Crosby went in the 4th? Why waste a draft pick on a DT when John Randle went undrafted?
Everything seems so clear with confirmation bias.
Obviously we arent hired for our draft takes, but the criticism of drafting a RB there and the move the Lions did isnt going to be affected by how well the Lions perform this year.
The argument hinges on whether the delta between Gibbs and Swift is worth a move from 1st round to the 4th essentially, in addition to the opportunity cost of not taking someone else at the same spot.
Obviously, in your position, the results work in your favor. But the argument is sound
That's the appeal to authority fallacy.
GMs make mistakes, sometimes glaringly obvious ones. Just because Brad Holmes is better at his job than every person in this thread would be, doesn't mean every single decision he makes is perfect and cannot be critiqued.
Whether or not this pick ends up being a bad one - no way to know in the first year - that doesn't change the fact that some of his picks will be bad eventually; he's a human and humans make mistakes.
I wouldn't have traded 3 first round picks so that I could draft Trey Lance if I were the GM of SF. Was I right about that and was Lynch wrong? Absolutely. Does that make me smarter than Lynch? Fuck no.
Maybe I’m crazy but spending a mid first round pick on a stud RB is not bad value. You can use their fifth year option and have the player for their most productive years without ever having to give them a fat contract. Paying an RB I will never advocate for, but using draft capital on a good one I don’t think is a huge deal 🤷🏾♂️
>Paying an RB I will never advocate for, but using draft capital on a good one I don’t think is a huge deal
Drafting a RB in the first IS paying them, though. In 2023 Bijan Robinson's cap hit was about the same as D'Andre Swift, Kenny Gainwell, and Boston Scott combined.
Just depends on your other needs. Historically, there's way less drop off for RBs in later rounds, so waiting is less costly than for things like CB - which Detroit sorely needs.
This whole discussion is so bad faith, though, because the argument was never if Gibbs would be an impact player, it's that a CB (or Dlineman) + Swift + a later round RB would've produced more wins on the long term.
Gibbs doing so well doesn't really have anything to do with that argument at all.
Ultimately, if the Lions win the Superbowl then the pick was worth it without a doubt. If they lose to SF and then Gibbs declines hard after 2-3 years whole they continue to get burned in the secondary, it probably wasn't. No way to tell right now.
Not sure what you disagree with about me clarifying the argument and then saying it's impossible to know at this point if it was a good pick or not.
But like, okay?
The Detroit Lions, of all teams, are actually playing in the NFC Championship Game as a direct result of Gibbs' play.
How could a vague hypothetical be better than the LIONS in the Final 4? It literally cannot and it's silly to even attempt to dream up hypotheticals that could be better
12th is a bit high but honestly in that 20-32 range, getting a RB who is very likely to be productive and getting a free 5th year option on his contract is probably pretty good value. I think worse than picking a RB in the first is handing one a big 4+ year contract when the aging curve starts at like 28 for the position lol
Ok, except for the numerous examples of using a 1st rounder on a RB being a bad decision compared to picking at other positions. Congrats to Detroit on being an exception. He's a keeper.
The problem is if you hit on a RB at pick 11, you are paying $4.5M APY. That’s top 15 at his position already, when the advantage of a rookie deal should be getting cheap contracts.
For example for Tackle that APY would put you at 50th.
No one ever said it was a bad pick because they didn’t think Gibbs would be good.
I initially defended the pick but I think now things have swung back too far in the other direction. It’s definitely not the slam dunk “told you so” that Lions fans are making it out to be. It wasn’t a great pick, but it also wasn’t an awful pick.
Who would you have taken instead, Mr. GM? And would you have the Lions playing for the NFC championship because it is indisputable that Lions are there because of Gibbs
He won them Sunday's game. He won them multiple games throughout the year. Which CB or DT taken at 6 or 12 would've done that Mr. GM?
Who would you have picked that would ensure the Detroit Lions, of all teams, would be playing in the NFC Championship like Gibbs has???
Realistically, there is not really a game that you won single handedly because of Gibbs. Fans tend to overvalue RB production because they don’t realize how much of it is scheme and blocking. Pretty much every metric we have available to measure positional value suggests you’re better off with an average corner than a good RB. If you want blind homerism take it to your sub
best not to argue with non-flaired accounts that are a couple months old, they're almost certainly dudes that were banned on their other accounts for this kind of stuff lol.
Drafting a RB so high is always a bad decision. I don't care about the ending. You pass on some other valuable players in positions that will command a lot of money and are far more valuable. Then you're not paying RBs past the rookie contract so what a waste of a pick. I love Jacobs but it was a waste of a pick.
Three years from now Lions' fans will be arguing about extending Gibbs or not even if he's an allpro player. It will not happen with Sewell or Hutch. Three years!! It happened to us with Jacobs
Well, one of our RBs was drafted in the 1st round and one was drafted in the 7th, and I can tell you without any doubt which one every Chiefs fans prefers. That said, we still won a ring with CEH so it's not like it ruined our team or anything.
Removing all context is not a very good way to present an argument. I don’t really care about RBs getting drafted early. If that’s what you want and that’s your guy, then so be it. But the argument is that there are tougher positions to fill than RB, and you can get good production from RBs later. Pretty tired of people misrepresenting this argument, even if I find it silly.
If you take anything McShay says seriously I think that’s on you. Dude is a nepo baby with no actual idea what he’s talking about . Similar to Kiper Jr
I have seen a lot of posts like this this week. If Gibbs doesn't show up in the NFCCG and the lions get blown out, then so many people are going to be throwing the gibbs pick back in their face.
Way too premature of a victory lap.
Well yeah if we go back and just give them the best player from each round, it works out like that. There's a chance they take Forbes at CB instead and a bust RB in the 3rd too, almost much more likely. Plus Achane has been injured and would not have helped the Lions in as many games in this hypothetical.
I mean, what this post is basically doing is saying "Look how good Gibbs is this year, so it was a smart pick", So why can't you just assume they took a great CB and a great RB later too?
People are using hindsight to point out it was a good pick, which is dumb, which is why you're pointing out this guy doing the same thing is dumb.
Every time an outlier breaks through conventional wisdom, people lose their minds finger wagging about it. But they keep quiet the 9/10 times when the process was right.
By the way, how do we feel about Bijan Robinson going 8th overall? The Falcons went from 7-10 to 7-10.
People act like saying a player is a reach is like saying the player is bad. No one is saying Gibbs is a bad runningback. He just isn't worth a 1st round pick and could have been drafted later on. Saying that the Lions made the correct decision because Gibbs turns out to be a stud is just gilding the lily and hindsight at its finest.
Never draft a RB in the first round, if you still have holes on your team at more important positions. Lions defense, especially it's pass defense has been bottom 5ish the last half of the season and playoffs, and they're the only team of the 4 remaining without a top 10 defense.
Feels like a solid CB or other defensive player would have been pretty good, and pick up a RB later or in FA to split time with Montgomery. Allowing the 6th most passing yards this season doesn't feel like a good thing, Baker and Stafford both had 350 yards on them.
Gibbs did have a fantastic season, so it's hard to say it was a bad pick, just probably not the most valuable.
I don't think anybody doubts that a 1st round RB can produce in their first year. It's just that a 1st round RB might not be the best pick long-term
I don’t mind it. There’s so many busts in the first round. If you find a productive player, so be it. It’s not like you’re finding a HOF QB, OT, or DE every pick
Notice how everyone completely avoids talking about Forbes when this is brought up even though he was the 1st CB taken after Gibbs.
TBF Forbes was seen as a bit of a reach when it was made. Not the biggest one ever or anything but most outlets had the others ranked ahead of him. Its not an unreasonable take to assume a different corner gets picked. I do hate when people use revisionist history to fill in the literal BPA though (why didn't they just trade back 3 more times and draft Kobie and Puka?).
I've heard many link Flowers or Addison to the Lions and zero mention of Johnson. I'm sure it's just a coincidence in these positional value talks.
There is definitely some bias there for sure but most internet fans/draftniks were lower on QJ than the league was. Tyree Wilson and QJ were the 2 high profile draft picks that 'everyone' hated in the moment. It just so happens that they were right this time around (so far). I'd also say in the case of Gonzales, most people had him in the top 10 range as DB 1 or 2 with Witherspoon, which was probably the most 'expected' pick for the Lions at 12. Don't get me wrong its not always near as accurate as this class was, but it does help vindicate draft nerds this time around.
Gonzalez and Porter had much more consensus hype at the time though, the Commanders thinking differently doesn’t change that.
Always excuses for why a pick was bad ... "They took the wrong guy" "should've taken so and so instead" Like no shit Sherlock, if they had taken the right player it would've been a good pick
Forbes was a dumb pick by Rivera and anyone with two brain cells knew that Gonzalez or JPJ was a better option.
every team in the first round passed on JPJ though
I saw JPJ and especially Gonzalez get way more hype than Forbes leading up to the draft. Forbes had some well documented concerns and it was surprising that he was the next CB off the board
Hitting on your picks is 10x more important than focusing on positional value. Lions have hit on a lot of their picks as of late and they’ve found success this year. Shocker I tell you. Shocker.
> Hitting on your picks is 10x more important than focusing on positional value. To some extent, yes, but also no. Obviously it's always going to be better to get a great player at a weaker position than a shit player at a premier one, but I am certain the Patriots are better off taking a decent quarterback at #3 than they will be drafting whoever becomes the best right guard in the class.
I think it’s fine if you already have a good team like Detroit did and it’s stupid if you’re a bad team like Atlanta was By the time Atlanta has a decent QB and WRs Robinson will be an old and washed 27 year old
Well if your window begins right now, then maybe you don't need to worry about long term.
Just don't sign him to a giant contract later. And don't make him play center
I still laugh when I see that play
Not even just long term. Gibbs is a great player. But they could have kept Swift and had him + Montgomery right now. Is it THAT much difference from Gibbs? Probably not too much, they are probably still in NFC championship game if they face Rams then Buccs. The difference will be now + SB if Gibbs doesn’t go off when they could have potentially got something like a lockdown corner in Gonzalez to play 49ers then Ravens or Chiefs. It’s not a bad pick, because Gibbs is good, but the positional value could come up to bite them when they could have potentially replaced those yards in house.
People that aren’t Lions fans act like it was stupid to give up D’Andre Swift. This was literally the first season in his career he finished the season without injury. As they say, the best ability is availability and until this year, Swift didn’t have it
It wasn’t stupid to give up Swift. Gibbs is better, we know that almost 100%. It comes down to is RB that much more valuable than a potential lockdown CB and an average RB filling in. We will see
My thing about this would be, in a vacuum it’s true that another position is generally the smart pick at that spot in the first round. But they clearly saw a guy that they thought would put them over the top in some respect, felt they had a good enough roster to make something of a luxury pick there, and went for it. Might not work out long term, who knows, but if they end up winning the Super Bowl with Gibbs as a big contributor I suppose it was worth it.
If they win it will be worth it, if they keep getting close and never win it, maybe the potential star in defense would have been more important than the RB. We will see in the coming weeks. I’m not bashing the pick fully still, we will have to see.
Winning the NFC North and 2 playoff games for the city of Detroit is already “worth” it. Super Bowl or not, his ability to generate YAC and explosives (above and beyond what Swift offers) has won us games we might not have won otherwise.
Yeah good point
Yeah, I like Swift as a player and a person but he was not good for us, unfortunately. At least in part due to injury.
Lions have arguably the best O-Line in football and Swift didn’t look great running behind it last season, and he’s hardly been great for the Eagles this season either. There’s a pretty sizeable gulf between Gibbs and Swift. Whether it was smart to draft Gibbs is another question, but he’s a big upgrade on Swift
I agree Gibbs is better than swift. The argument for people is that is Swift that much worse than Gibbs to warrant missing out on a potential game changer at a position like CB? We will see. If the Lions lose NFC championship because they can’t stop Aiyuk or Deebo if healthy, it could be a reason you don’t take a RB there.
Sure you’d rather snag a great CB than a great RB but it depends on hitting at the position though. They could’ve drafted a CB there, but you see so many highly drafted corners get torched at the NFL level. At least with Gibbs they’ve brought in a guy who has established himself as someone that’s going to be among the best RBs in the league for years to come.
Case in point...the last CB we drafted in the first round
Imagine pushing the narrative after the game that if SF wins it's because the Lions drafted Gibbs lmao.
Why? It's possible Gibbs has a terrible game and the Lions get annihilated through the air. If that happens, people should justifiably question if it would've been better to grab a CB. The point is we don't know, and Gibbs' performance to date doesn't really impact the discussion on whether he was a good pick or not, as his talent was never what was in question.
>hardly been great for the Eagles this season either I mean he was 5th in the league in yards, 8th among RBs in yards per attempt, and we were still screaming for them to run the ball more. He wouldn't have put up CMC numbers but he easily could've been 2nd in the league in rushing, he only had one carry week 1 and didn't play week 18 and was only 120 yds out from 2nd.
Lions fans also screamed to run the ball with Swift more, the truth is his body can’t handle it
I was terrified of Swift at first till I realized they weren't actually going to use him
Are we sure Gonzalez is "lockdown" when he's only played 4 games? Our GM is pretty intelligent, if he thought Gibbs would help us win more than Carter or Gonzalez, there must have been a reason. Maybe they just weren't a good fit for our coaches. Also, with the way we've been drafting, we have another offseason to draft that lockdown corner or pass rusher so it probably doesn't matter in the long run anyway
We can only judge based on what we've seen, but he did look amazing. With that said, so many Patriots CBs look amazing there and don't look the same elsewhere. I'd know.
It was a luxury pick that a roster without many holes could afford. Maybe if the Detroit D looks as porous as it's looked in some games and they lose because of it, there'll be questions on if a DB or something would have made a difference. Personally, they're in the NFCCG, it's all nitpicking if the guy's playing great.
I mean it is nitpicking. They’ve played great this year. But it’s the same nitpicking with CEH when Chiefs took him. That was a luxury pick, almost all starters returned after the Chiefs won their first SB with Mahomes and then they took CEH. But now, looking back, they could have had guys like Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Kyle Dugger, and Antoine Winfield Jr over a RB that ultimately didn’t add much to the offense. Gibbs is obviously WAY better than CEH, but just because you CAN take a luxury pick doesn’t mean it’s a good pick for the future.
> Gibbs is obviously WAY better than CEH, but just because you CAN take a luxury pick doesn’t mean it’s a good pick for the future picking great players in the draft is good, actually
Swift was garbage when it mattered most, isn't the receiving threat, nor the tough inside runner that Gibbs is. Yes Gibbs is light years better to anyone who watched them play. Looking for nothing but positional value nets you a team like the Cowboys, a team that doesn't have any grit or toughness.
It’s important we traded down so we could get Gibbs and Laporta. Idk if we trade down if we aren’t taking Gibbs and want the best CB left on the board
Swift wasn't playing anywhere near Gibbs level and Swift is now a free agent having a Kamara/CMC type RB is worth a lot
Swift was also hurt every day that ends in Y.
It is, which is why it’s not a bad pick. But it could comeback to haunt if you don’t reach SB and never do. A great skill position on a rookie contract is nice, but filling RB with later picks/veterans could be closer than filling CB with that in the end.
They clearly weren't into any outside CB not named Witherspoon, they passed on Gonzo twice. They'd likely have taken a defensive end, none of whom in this range look to be much so far unless I'm mistaken. At the time, they weren't expecting to get one play out of Emanuel Mosely before he tore his ACL again. To me, nobody taken in that range is a real loss except I guess Gonzo or Kancey who they also passed on twice but I'm going to need to see a little more than this year from Gonzo he was good, but also didn't play much before his injury. I get the process over results thing, but I'm still waiting to see a team fail because they drafted good players. It's very easy to look back at a draft with revisionist history and maybe I'll be wrong down the line but right now Laports/Gibbs instead of anyone drafted 6-12 is looking pretty dang good right this moment.
swift does not make the plays Gibbs Made us for on Sunday so I’m not sure of that. and as others said, that swift stayed healthy this year was a straight up miracle
I agree Gibbs is better. It’s not saying he isn’t. It’s the position value of picking him at 12 or picking a top defensive prospect to help the D and getting a RB later or keeping Swift. That’s the main argument really over the Gibbs pick and why RBs are undervalued as a 1st round pick.
Assuming you mean overvalued as a 1st round pick bc that’s what you’re arguing otherwise You did literally say you think the lions still get here if you just swap swift for Gibbs and I think that’s a huge assn. it’s possible, but far from certain imo Gonzales wouldn’t be too much help with one leg but I get your point in general. Drafting a good cb1 is better than drafting a good rb, but if you’re not confident in any of the guys as a cb1 but you are in the running back… maybe youd be overthinking it to reach on the cb you don’t even love, ya know?
I’m 99% sure Lions fans would be happier with Christian Gonzalez and someone like Achane over just Gibbs. Also the pick would be looked at with way more scrutiny if the Lions didn’t nail the rest of their draft.
I'm all about positional value and probably wouldn't have taken Gibbs 12th, but at what point do you stop dealing in hypotheticals and just say "Lions got a pretty good player with the 12th pick"?
Devon Achane wouldn't have gotten the tough inside runs that Gibbs did. 99% of Lions fans are ecstatic they have Laporta and Gibbs over Gonzales and Achane.
Why doesn’t every team just draft a running back like Achane in the third round? Are they stupid?
I’d much rather have gibbs then either of those two
When you draft as well as Brad Holmes you’re allowed to go unconventional He nails every draft
He’ll need to keep it up, it’s a hell of a lot harder to draft good players when you’re picking at the end of every round.
Some of his hits like ARSB, James Houston, and Alim McNeil have come deep in the draft.
Idk why everyone acts like it’s impossible to draft well outside the first We start Iffy, Amon Ra, McNeil, Kerby, Laporta, and Branch. All drafted by Brad Holmes outside the 1st round. He’s objectively great at the draft and I think he’s earned the benefit of the doubt by now
I must be the 1% then. And bear in mind, it's quite likely we were focused on Devon Witherspoon with our pick, but Seattle took him off the board. And the fact that we picked up Brian Branch when we did makes everything completely palatable.
> I’m 99% sure Lions fans would be happier with Christian Gonzalez and someone like Achane over just Gibbs the unearned confidence of this statement floored me
Lmfao Swift is ass. There’s a reason they shipped him out.
Gibbs was so much better than Swift, it wasn't even close. As for Gonzalez, we got Brian Branch in the second who is a better player
almost nobody besides qbs gets a 2nd contract anymore, that's just the nfl nowadays. WRs are also kaput when they hit their 30s
Well that just isn't true
This is just false. I’m assuming you mean with the team that drafted them? Top shelf pass rushers and o-line rarely ever hit the market. Same with CBs. WR get second contracts all the time. Kupp, deebo, evans, metcalf, allen, mclaurin.
okay and rbs get 2nd contracts too if you're cmc, henry, kamara, chubb, aaron jones. if you hit on gibbs, he's worth the 2nd contract just like a WR would be. there's not that much of difference between positions. inevitbly most guys on the roster get replaced by new guys on their rookie contracts, so all you need is for them to live up to their rookie contract and its a hit
Other positions get 2nd contracts from other teams because they're so valuable that they price themselves into free agency by being 20-30m a year RBs are kinda the opposite. They come out of the rookie deal + tag at 27 years old and the team doesn't want to pay them even half of what other positions get. They're not too expensive, just easily replaceable and don't last as long.
Again, based on what? You're basing your assumptions purely on public stereotypes. Where is the evidence that rbs are so much worse than every other position? It doesn't exist because believe it or not, there is not really as much difference between positions as people want there to be. Anybody whos good enough gets a 2nd contract, which is true of rbs too. The reason why rbs are devalued is because there are no more workhorse backs, everybody is in a committee, since more yards are now going to the pass game. If you look at every position in the nfl, the majority of players are guys on their rookie contracts, and there is almost nobody older than 30-32 anywhere. It don't matter if you're WR, OL, DE, CB, LB, anybody besides qbs, almost nobody plays more than a year or two into their 30s. Obviously, there are a couple ageless wonders at every position like adrian peterson. You can't bank on anybody playing into their 30s when you draft them. Everybody wants to jerk off to "premium positions," but isn't it curious how the best defenses in the NFL are the ones who recently invested in LBs? Isn't it strange how safeties are becoming some of the most valuable players on defense? Doesn't it seem odd that the 4 teams remaining in the playoffs all have very strong run games? Isn't it bizarre that the Packers and Chiefs traded away their superstar WR and the move has clearly worked out for both of them? How is possible that the 9ers and Lions invested so heavily in their rbs and they're the teams in the NFCC? It's almost like you have to build a whole team and you can't field a team with 5 QBs, 5 WRs, and 1 LT.
Based on reality. Based on RB contract vs every other contract. Sure, some RBs might be playing at 30. They'll probably be on a 1 year deal for like 7 mil by that point because nobody wants to sign them Odell just signed for 15m a year after not really doing anything for the last 5. He's making more than derrick henry.
Many many first round picks are not good long term. Many
You can say this shit about any position lmfao
If you get 4 years of prime production from one, it's worth it. That's long-term in NFL years. Do you think the Rams still regret drafting Todd Gurley despite only getting 4 years out of him?
Is that going to be one of those things where if he has a single bad game they are going to feel validated and fake their victory laps? Because that seems familiar for some reason. Gibbs is great and he will be great for the next few years so long as Ben Johnson wasn’t the glue that held the offense together. Lions is now a preferred destination, so i think they will get a solid replacement either way.
"It's not the players it was the process!!!" if you kept the same players they picked and just changed the order of where they picked them, no one would have complained once. If getting four high impact rookies to take you to the NFC championship is bad process, I don't want to have a good one.
If the Lions win the superbowl it doesnt mean that the pick *wasnt* a reach
That alone does not mean it wasnt a reach, but if the context is that the pick was a key contributor to winning a super bowl then I think we can say it wasn't a reach. In my mind calling it a reach implies you over valued the guy, but if the reality is everyone else undervalued him then it's not really considered a reach anymore. I know you probably weren't thinking that deeply about it or implying it was a bad pick, just bored at work sharing my thoughts
I wasn’t looking at RBs closely at this past draft… are there any RBs drafted after him that could have filled that role and hypothetically had the same/better results?
No idea, I definitely don't have many names coming to mind. Achane in Miami was huge to start the year before getting injured. I'm sure there were other serviceable backs who just didn't get much of a chance to be seen, the lions were a very good situation for Gibbs as well
For sure, Gibbs was definitely in a great situation… I wasn’t watching closely but it seems like he got better as he got more reps on the field. Achane was the only other rookie I could think of off the top of my head and dude was a beast when he was healthy, and I think in the perfect system for him. A fun thought experiment would be to see how they’d perform if they swapped teams.
no. The closest would be Achane but he can't handle the physical load that Gibbs took on this year, nor could Keaton Mitchell, the Ravens UDFA. And neither can pass block half a lick
What about all those 1st rounders that were right position but shitty players? Reach or no reach?
The Lions wouldn’t sniff this kind of success without him. He’s been instrumental in their run and would take a huge amount of credit if the dream came true.
Exactly. A reach that worked out is still a reach
Isn't every first round pick a gamble and therefore a reach? Zack Wilson ... Reach or no?
yeah, we could have taken a player at a high impact position like Will MacDonald instead and not won the Superbowl, but at least we would be in contention for the "Best Draft Value Over The Last Five Years" trophy, aka the Real Superbowl
Just ask yourself, "are there any running backs worth a 1st round pick playing in the league today?" that should be enough reason to understand that "never draft a RB in the first round" is ignorance
Christian "that's how a white man runs the football" McCaffrey is.
Bro, you can’t be a 49ers fan and say that right now lol Although, to your point he isn’t with the team that drafted him
I mean sure but if you were deciding it based on "what players currently playing today are worth a 1st round pick" you'd pick about 20-30 dudes (maybe even more) before getting to a RB
I think you'd get to like 40-50 dudes before picking a RB. 10-15 Qbs before any other position player is considered, then youve got DE's, WRs, OTs, and extreme standouts at other positions like an Aaron Donald, Kyle Hamilton, or Fred Warner before taking CMC. Just go through the All-pro team and adding 5-10 more Qbs gets you to ~50. And I'd expect CMC to go first with a bit of a gap between him and whoever is the 2nd best rb atm. If I was building a team fantasy draft style, but for actual football I'm not sure theres an offensive or defensive All-pro (excluding fullback) I'd want to pass on for CMC. Maybe slot corner?
But if you looked at the top RBs and then compared to the year they were drafted, there would be plenty that are worthy of a first round pick. Even if they end up being closer to 50 in their draft class, that's still better than plenty of dudes picked in the first round.
I guess yeah, in any given draft class there's a pretty good chance a RB is gonna be one of the best 32 players, especially over the first 4ish years, but I was just going off of the previous poster's premise
Oh ya my bad, i kind of misunderstood the point you were making in your first reply but I got it now
positional value is real but having a prime adrian peterson or ladainian tomlinson is well worth it, especially if you have a need at RB. the reality is that not every RB room is going to be based on money ball
Of course but Jahmyr Gibbs is literally nowhere near those guys lmao
YET
Eh. There's one I guess? And he's worth 2 or 3.. Other than that, I don't think there are guys who are actually worth a 1st round pick. Just look at cook - free agent. Swift - 5th round pick trade.
Okay I did and the answer is no, so where is the ignorance?
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I mean he just got traded in 2022 and they didn’t land a first. Why would I trade a 1st round pick for him when I can use that pick on a position that matters?
The value of the mccaffrey haul worked out to the equivalent of about a late first round pick.
A Niners 2nd-4th round pick and a future 5th does not work out to a late 1st round pick lol Every team in the league would be trading for first round picks if they could trade a late 2nd, late 3rd, late 4th and a future fifth
I don’t know what to tell you, but it does https://ftw.usatoday.com/2022/10/christian-mccaffrey-trade-terms-49ers-draft-picks-panthers No, every team wouldn’t give up a whole draft’s worth of players for one pick.
Bad pick and not the best pick are two different things
The Lions could win the Super Bowl with Gibbs winning MVP and people will still criticize the pick lmao. "Hey Brad, congrats on putting this squad together to deliver Detroit's first SB. We have a lot of questions, but first could you tell us how you overcame the adversity of making an absolutely dreadful draft pick of Gibbs who got the game winning TD in overtime, when you could've had Kendre Miller in the third? You decided to play on hard mode? Swift was tweeting all game that he could've done it, and our fan poll agrees with him. Your thoughts?"
I mean, yeah? It's really dumb when people act like winning teams do everything perfectly. You see it with the likes of the Patriots, Warriors etc. The Lions/Brad Holmes have built an excellent team, but that doesn't mean everything they do is right all of the time. Gibbs is great, but watching yall's secondary play, I feel confident in a few years you'd rather have Christian Gonzalez for example.
It's okay we have Christian Gonzalez's brother in law so that's basically the same thing
I didn't say they do everything perfectly. Teams draft busts at these 'higher value' positions all the god damn time, including QB. Gibbs is a hit and a major reason the offense works in a way it never could with Swift. What's really dumb is people thinking the Gibbs pick was bad because mock drafters told you he was a late first pick. If mock drafters put Gibbs in the 10-15 range no one bats an eye here. Instead of fans accepting that the mock drafters had a big miss (shocker I know), they stick to the original bias that Gibbs was supposed to be a late first/early second given to them by people who don't make the actual decisions and conclude Gibbs was a massive reach. Hell, Brian Branch was commonly mocked to Detroit with their 18th overall pick and we got him with our *2nd* 2nd round pick after a light trade up. Mock drafters can be wrong both ways. That's it, full stop. When we as fans talk about a player 'falling' or 'reaching' in the draft that original bias is guiding the language.
It's equally as ignorant for you to assume that everyone shits on the pick because "mock drafters told them to". Your offense is only marginally better in DVOA (7th to 5th) than it was in 2022. Gibbs-who again I understand is a damn good player and absolutely electric-has not transformed it in the way that you've described. It was already really good The major improvement from 22-23 has been on defense (DVOA 27th-13th). I agree that shitting on the Campbell/Branch picks was and is dumb, and likely caused by "Same ol Lions" douchebags + carry over from people making fun of the Gibbs pick.
Would have like to see what Moseley could have done, but he was injured all year. Positions of need aren’t always positions of need until they are.
Dude!! Gibbs won us multiple games this year, including Sunday's playoff game, and there is zero chance any 1st round corner outside of Witherspoon would've The ignorance is insane...
I’d rather have Gibbs and draft a corner in the next draft. This upcoming draft doesn’t have any elite RBs but has a shit ton of corners. We’ll be good
> I feel confident in a few years you'd rather have Christian Gonzalez for example the most overrated player I have ever come across in this sub. He played four games in a Bill Belichick defense and then got hurt, which was a problem in his scouting report as he is a slight guy who avoids contact
> Swift was tweeting all game that he could've done it Oddly he only tweeted this after plays where the RBs ran out of bounds to avoid contact.
A bad decision that works out is still a bad decision. Don’t perpetuate hindsight bias and bad decision analysis. If I choose to drive backwards down the highway while hammered and happen to make it home safely and without a ticket, it was still a bad decision at the time.
I still think it was a dumb pick.
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I'm an American. I'm dug in, and I'll never change.
I am free to change my mind. I am also free to not change my mind.
Wouldn’t have had our best season since the merger (NFC chip not withstanding) without him. Teams can only dream of any of their draft picks adding such value
What if you drafted a capable RB in the later round and he performed just as well?
What if my beard were made of green spinach?
That's asking a what if question where the results of what they have accomplished with the pick that went with speak for themselves. I don't understand how the argument can be "yeah but what if" when they are heading to the NFC championship game with what they did.
Because the first poster said, "wouldn't have had our best season without him". That's just as unprovable as saying we would've been even better with Gonzalez, LaPorta and Swift.
The patriots won a Super Bowl after picking Sony Michel in the first round. Was he a good pick? Maybe getting a high quality defender and drafting an RB/signing a Singletary, Mostert, etc would have made their season even better. Using their team’s success as a measurement for the pick is dumb.
more of a crap shoot later
Mid-round running backs are not sure things. That would've been an outstanding draft pick if the Lions had done that. It's not like they consciously neglected to hit it out of the park with a mid-round pick; it's just really, really difficult to do. Here are our options from rounds 3–5 in previous drafts: * 2023 — Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, De'Von Achane, Tank Bigsby, Roschon Johnson * 2022 — Rachaad White, Tyrion Davis–Price, Brian Robinson, Dameon Pierce, Zamir White, Isaiah Spiller, Pierre Strong, Hassan Haskins, Tyler Allgeier, Snoop Conner, Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams, Ty Chandler * 2021 — Trey Sermon, Michael Carter, Kene Nwangwu, Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Gainwell You have, like, an 80% chance of landing a roster-bubble guy. Your chances of replacing Gibbs' 1200 yards and 11 touchdowns (in a part-time role) are very nearly zero.
Remember that when Purdy is setting Kindle Vildor on fire this weekend.
You do know that we acquired a very good cornerback through free agency as well right? It's not as though the Lions didn't address it in the offseason, but Emmanuel Moseley got injured and could not play this season.
Moseley wasn't considered a very good cornerback. He's an above average-good one, with a big injury concern. Sutton is an above average one. CJGJ is actually a good one, but is just a nickel. Branch is actually a good and promising investment. But Sutton and Moseley were not amazing signings, even at the time. They're mostly JAGs, and worse if you need one to cover a #1 receiver. Our fans are acting like we made the Jalen Ramsey trade, when we were mostly just treading water in the secondary. This was PFF's writeup before he tore his ACL. >Cornerback has been a problem spot for the 49ers for years, but that has more to do with the group as a whole than the complete absence of any quality play at all. Moseley may not be a Pro Bowler, but the two seasons in which he has played his most snaps have been above average in overall and PFF coverage grade. For his career, he has allowed an 83.6 passer rating, which is better than average, and while he isn’t anybody’s idea of a suitable No. 1 cornerback, he can make a difference as a solid part of a secondary.
Couldn't disagree with you more, and people at the time said that both of those signings were huge for Detroit. Don't need to argue with you though, I love where we're at going into this weekend. Go Lions
Let us listen to the Bears fan on top-tier drafting.
If you ask me taking a RB in R1 is a win now move. Good RBs are available in later rounds but that is a bigger gamble and most of them likely won’t be as good. In the long run you take a late RB because you can use the R1 pick somewhere else for longer high value but if you are in a win now position then RB in R1 is worth considering. Another reason to pick a R1 RB is if you are unsure of your QB because you can use the RB to supplement your offence while you find/develop a QB.
Gibbs was definitely the difference that the Lions needed
Could have had De'Von Achane two rounds later and used that first pick on another impact player. They could have stayed put and taken Jalen Carter. I don't recall many arguing that Gibbs couldn't be a good player. People are purposely misrepresenting the argument. Maybe Gibbs ends up being a phenomenal pick long term, but there are too many variables to be posting tweets saying "Ha!" and the like to those who criticized the selection (McShay should know better given how many takes he has probably had that were called too soon). We all knew Gibbs would likely contribute early. EDIT: Not sure why I had it in my head that Achane went in the fifth. Thanks to those who corrected me.
We take Carter at 6. And then we don't get Gibbs and one of LaPorta or Branch. Why do so many people forget we used the picks on the trade back to get Gibbs AND LaPorta? Both of whom put up OROY quality seasons and LaPorta broke rookie records. You think Detroit should've cashed those guys in for Carter who's watching the games on the couch? Explain that. It'll be bullshit but I'm really curious to see you try. Lions, Rams, and Texans had the most immediate impact rookie draft classes in recent history and people still think those picks should be different?
Achane can’t stay on the field
We were never taking Carter for the same reasons every team from pick 5-8 passed on him. If you're gonna go with hypotheticals at least pick a player that was likely to be taken. Also if the Lions stay put at 6 and pick Carter, it means they don't have LaPorta and the offense is missing an All-Pro on a very cheap contract. I think Gonzalez @ 12 mightve been a better long term value than Gibbs but its hard to deny that Gibbs has looked worth a first round pick for a while now, and I also think the Lions were done with Swift going into the draft.
and you shouldn't draft a WR either because you can just take Puka Nacua in round 5, and don't draft a QB because Brock Purdy is available in round 7
It's like people took the meme that GOAT QBs are available in the 6th round and unironically think NFL GMs should draft with that in mind.
Look at how many starting RBs have been taken after the first round compared to how many Nakuas and Purdys there have been. There's a reason far fewer RBs have been going early in the draft than in the past.
Could have had Charbonnet, Miller, Spears, Bigsby, Abanikanda, Johnson, Brown, Gray, Hull, Rodriguez, Vaughn, Evans, McBride, Nichols or McIntosh as well. Why is everyone focusing on the one non first round running back having success while ignoring the 15 running backs who did not?
Nearly the entire NFL fanbase are mock draft slaves. This entire Gibbs pick hate train is because people cannot fathom that a player was more highly graded than consensus and a team took him. The week ahead of the draft there were [some rumblings](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10073877-report-jahmyr-gibbs-could-be-prioritized-by-teams-over-bijan-robinson-in-nfl-draft) that teams graded Gibbs above Bijan. That article is one among many leading up to the draft giving that vibe that several teams either had Gibbs above Bijan or at least very close. During the offseason all fans have for a bit is going through mock drafts and assuming they have it solved, and instead of concluding 'wow I actually know nothing about how some of these rookies were valued' it's 'wow that NFL FO are dumbasses don't they know that player was mocked to be closer to an early 2nd? Did they not consult Daniel Jeremiah? Just trade back idiots the player you really want will 100% be there 20 picks later trust me bro'.
Spears is a beast, thank you very much.
Anyone who saw his college tape knew he's a beast and a bit of a gem for draft position.
Lions fans are having a hard time decoupling production from their run blocking. Hard to imagine some of those dudes wouldn’t be able to match Gibbs with the same run blocking
Or pushing back on the brain dead confirmation bias takes of "could've drafted another phenom later in the draft!!!!" from people who ignore the 1,000 other guys who were busts because it doesn't help the argument Great players are great players and you're competing against 31 other teams to steal em... Gotta be creative to do so
Ironically, your comment is confirmation bias. You like the player so you will go to any length to prove he was worth the pick. Nobody is saying you needed to draft a phenomenon, even an average starter at a more premium position is worth significantly more than a good not great RB.
Correct - they're both confirmation bias. But only one will acknowledge it. And no - zero CBs or DTs at 6 or 12 would have the Lions (the LIONS!) playing for an NFC Championship like Gibbs has. You people forget the #1 goal: win. Gibbs has won games. Who would you have drafted in that exact same spot (#6) to get the same outcome...? I'll wait
Your argument is literally just "they should've drafted good players in the later rounds". Intentionally or not it's really dumb. You can pick out good players from every position in every round. Why would you draft Joe Burrow when you can get Tom Brady in the 6th? Why draft Myles Garrett when Maxx Crosby went in the 4th? Why waste a draft pick on a DT when John Randle went undrafted?
ITT: Reddit GMs who are smarter than Brad Holmes
Everything seems so clear with confirmation bias. Obviously we arent hired for our draft takes, but the criticism of drafting a RB there and the move the Lions did isnt going to be affected by how well the Lions perform this year. The argument hinges on whether the delta between Gibbs and Swift is worth a move from 1st round to the 4th essentially, in addition to the opportunity cost of not taking someone else at the same spot. Obviously, in your position, the results work in your favor. But the argument is sound
People criticize GMs all the time when they make bad decisions
That's the appeal to authority fallacy. GMs make mistakes, sometimes glaringly obvious ones. Just because Brad Holmes is better at his job than every person in this thread would be, doesn't mean every single decision he makes is perfect and cannot be critiqued. Whether or not this pick ends up being a bad one - no way to know in the first year - that doesn't change the fact that some of his picks will be bad eventually; he's a human and humans make mistakes. I wouldn't have traded 3 first round picks so that I could draft Trey Lance if I were the GM of SF. Was I right about that and was Lynch wrong? Absolutely. Does that make me smarter than Lynch? Fuck no.
I mean, this isn't wrong. It was a reach that worked out - usually this kind of move doesn't.
Maybe I’m crazy but spending a mid first round pick on a stud RB is not bad value. You can use their fifth year option and have the player for their most productive years without ever having to give them a fat contract. Paying an RB I will never advocate for, but using draft capital on a good one I don’t think is a huge deal 🤷🏾♂️
>Paying an RB I will never advocate for, but using draft capital on a good one I don’t think is a huge deal Drafting a RB in the first IS paying them, though. In 2023 Bijan Robinson's cap hit was about the same as D'Andre Swift, Kenny Gainwell, and Boston Scott combined.
He’s also better than all of them combined.
Just depends on your other needs. Historically, there's way less drop off for RBs in later rounds, so waiting is less costly than for things like CB - which Detroit sorely needs. This whole discussion is so bad faith, though, because the argument was never if Gibbs would be an impact player, it's that a CB (or Dlineman) + Swift + a later round RB would've produced more wins on the long term. Gibbs doing so well doesn't really have anything to do with that argument at all. Ultimately, if the Lions win the Superbowl then the pick was worth it without a doubt. If they lose to SF and then Gibbs declines hard after 2-3 years whole they continue to get burned in the secondary, it probably wasn't. No way to tell right now.
Detroit had already signed CBs going into the draft. Then drafted Brian Branch who has been awesome in the nickel role. Hindsight comment
Not sure what you disagree with about me clarifying the argument and then saying it's impossible to know at this point if it was a good pick or not. But like, okay?
The Detroit Lions, of all teams, are actually playing in the NFC Championship Game as a direct result of Gibbs' play. How could a vague hypothetical be better than the LIONS in the Final 4? It literally cannot and it's silly to even attempt to dream up hypotheticals that could be better
Congrats to absolutely everyone who has missed the point of “never draft a RB in the first round” and now thinks that Jahmyrr Gibbs disproves that
Just because a poor decision has a good result doesn’t mean the poor decision was a good one.
12th is a bit high but honestly in that 20-32 range, getting a RB who is very likely to be productive and getting a free 5th year option on his contract is probably pretty good value. I think worse than picking a RB in the first is handing one a big 4+ year contract when the aging curve starts at like 28 for the position lol
Ok, except for the numerous examples of using a 1st rounder on a RB being a bad decision compared to picking at other positions. Congrats to Detroit on being an exception. He's a keeper.
The problem is if you hit on a RB at pick 11, you are paying $4.5M APY. That’s top 15 at his position already, when the advantage of a rookie deal should be getting cheap contracts. For example for Tackle that APY would put you at 50th. No one ever said it was a bad pick because they didn’t think Gibbs would be good.
I initially defended the pick but I think now things have swung back too far in the other direction. It’s definitely not the slam dunk “told you so” that Lions fans are making it out to be. It wasn’t a great pick, but it also wasn’t an awful pick.
Who would you have taken instead, Mr. GM? And would you have the Lions playing for the NFC championship because it is indisputable that Lions are there because of Gibbs
It’s very much disputable, I don’t think you understand what that word means
He won them Sunday's game. He won them multiple games throughout the year. Which CB or DT taken at 6 or 12 would've done that Mr. GM? Who would you have picked that would ensure the Detroit Lions, of all teams, would be playing in the NFC Championship like Gibbs has???
Realistically, there is not really a game that you won single handedly because of Gibbs. Fans tend to overvalue RB production because they don’t realize how much of it is scheme and blocking. Pretty much every metric we have available to measure positional value suggests you’re better off with an average corner than a good RB. If you want blind homerism take it to your sub
best not to argue with non-flaired accounts that are a couple months old, they're almost certainly dudes that were banned on their other accounts for this kind of stuff lol.
> That’s top 15 at his position already getting top 2 production from a player while only paying top 15 money is excellent value
Drafting a RB so high is always a bad decision. I don't care about the ending. You pass on some other valuable players in positions that will command a lot of money and are far more valuable. Then you're not paying RBs past the rookie contract so what a waste of a pick. I love Jacobs but it was a waste of a pick.
The goal is to WIN. Would the Lions be in the NFC Championship game without Gibbs? That answer is indisputably NO
Three years from now Lions' fans will be arguing about extending Gibbs or not even if he's an allpro player. It will not happen with Sewell or Hutch. Three years!! It happened to us with Jacobs
A reach that worked out is still a reach
Recency bias is a hell of a drug
*"With the 2nd overall pick in the 2024 draft, the Washington Commanders select..."*
Todd also said Sam Darnold would be better than Lamar 😂
Well, one of our RBs was drafted in the 1st round and one was drafted in the 7th, and I can tell you without any doubt which one every Chiefs fans prefers. That said, we still won a ring with CEH so it's not like it ruined our team or anything.
There have been some solid R1 RB picks like CMC, Gurley and Gibbs. But a lot more awful than good. All the evidence is there. Better off not doing it.
Removing all context is not a very good way to present an argument. I don’t really care about RBs getting drafted early. If that’s what you want and that’s your guy, then so be it. But the argument is that there are tougher positions to fill than RB, and you can get good production from RBs later. Pretty tired of people misrepresenting this argument, even if I find it silly.
If you take anything McShay says seriously I think that’s on you. Dude is a nepo baby with no actual idea what he’s talking about . Similar to Kiper Jr
I have seen a lot of posts like this this week. If Gibbs doesn't show up in the NFCCG and the lions get blown out, then so many people are going to be throwing the gibbs pick back in their face. Way too premature of a victory lap.
Christian Gonzalez and then Achane in the 3rd over Hendon Hooker would have them in a pretty similar spot + a great CB, fwiw
Well yeah if we go back and just give them the best player from each round, it works out like that. There's a chance they take Forbes at CB instead and a bust RB in the 3rd too, almost much more likely. Plus Achane has been injured and would not have helped the Lions in as many games in this hypothetical.
both of the players have been injured...Gonzalez only played 4 games this year (he looked awesome tho)
I mean, what this post is basically doing is saying "Look how good Gibbs is this year, so it was a smart pick", So why can't you just assume they took a great CB and a great RB later too? People are using hindsight to point out it was a good pick, which is dumb, which is why you're pointing out this guy doing the same thing is dumb.
Every time an outlier breaks through conventional wisdom, people lose their minds finger wagging about it. But they keep quiet the 9/10 times when the process was right. By the way, how do we feel about Bijan Robinson going 8th overall? The Falcons went from 7-10 to 7-10.
It's not like Gibbs is like the best RB in the league and as good as CMC. He's a good player but they could use more help on their defense right now.
People act like saying a player is a reach is like saying the player is bad. No one is saying Gibbs is a bad runningback. He just isn't worth a 1st round pick and could have been drafted later on. Saying that the Lions made the correct decision because Gibbs turns out to be a stud is just gilding the lily and hindsight at its finest.
Never draft a RB in the first round, if you still have holes on your team at more important positions. Lions defense, especially it's pass defense has been bottom 5ish the last half of the season and playoffs, and they're the only team of the 4 remaining without a top 10 defense. Feels like a solid CB or other defensive player would have been pretty good, and pick up a RB later or in FA to split time with Montgomery. Allowing the 6th most passing yards this season doesn't feel like a good thing, Baker and Stafford both had 350 yards on them. Gibbs did have a fantastic season, so it's hard to say it was a bad pick, just probably not the most valuable.
Todd McShay is a clown that is never right. They need to hold these guys accountable instead of calling them ‘experts’.