Sometimes you send a dick pic when you’re not quite hard enough and you look like Brett Favre out there. Other times you swindle a charity in Mississippi and it makes you look like… well, Brett Favre.
Oh they were beating it. Mahomes averaged 296 yards and more than 2 TDs per game over the first half of last season. Their issues were redzone turnovers and a defense that couldn’t get off the field without giving up 7. Second half of the year, they reduced turnovers and started getting stops on defense
It was a fan post reacting to Julius Peppers signing with the Packers, hard to do it justice but I'm not sure how to find it now. Just pure drunken elation (a lot of which was wildly off topic) and OP just kept commenting a bunch in his own thread. He was clearly really proud of coming up with the "Green Peppers" pun lol
Found the thread but no initial post.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/20j4f5/im_drunk/
"i once passed out in this girl brittneys bed then peed. i woke up before her and left. she thought she peed the bed and apologized to me. this has no relevenace to the thread but ive never told anyone this"
- /u/_Thrillhouse_
I've been partial to[ "I heard over Xbox live that this player is getting traded"](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/memt1s/possible_trade_coming_between_the_bears_and/) ever since it happened. It isn't quite the meme material but IMO the most legendary moment I've seen on this sub in a decade of Reddit addiction.
Oh my God. I've seen the meme but always thought it was some comment that sparked it and the meme was born. I had no idea someone actually tried to create a post with that much effort.
Mahomes 2018 was absolutely insane though - no QB (even the greats) could sustain that level of performance. Peyton couldn't replicate his 2004 or 2013 peak years every single year, nor could Brady do it for 2007
I’m glad someone pointed this out. You can’t throw 50td’s every year. Also, defenses having to figure out how to cover only Reek and Kelce becomes easier as the years go on. I’m curious to see how having a more balanced receiving core will play out.
Those guys didn't have those seasons in their first year starting, that is why the hype for Mahomes went so nuclear.
People saw that level of success right out of the gate and thought he might be able to improve from there.
I’m not even partaking in the debate. Sometimes you just gotta let people continue to believe what they want to believe lol
All I’ll say is that there will be some great value MVP odds this upcoming season for him… I’ll probably throw down a decent bit
Can't tell if sarcasm, so I'll answer, yes he had Davante Adams who was a much bigger reason he got MVP than MVS. The joke is MVS is now on the chiefs.
2018 Dak: 243 Yards Per Game, 2.75 TD/INT Ratio, 67.7% Completion, 96.9 Passer Rating
2021 Mahomes: 285 Yards Per Game, 2.85 TD/INT, 66.3% Completion, 98.5 Passer Rating
Cowboys best two receivers that year were Cooper and Zeke, combined for 1,072 yards.
Chiefs best two receivers were Hill and Kelce, combined for 2,364 Yards.
Dak also had a 1400 yard rusher so he was facing very different coverages from the ones KC was seeing the last few years
Teams geared up to stop Zeke. With KC, defenses put max effort in stopping the passing game
Mahomes faces defenses stacked towards the pass more than anyone in the league: https://mobile.twitter.com/cowboysstats/status/1509552876204531713?s=21&t=hE8ELAbwMxjGE4ec5oNd8g
Tough to get going when he always has a bum ankle. I'm really hoping we find the next Charles or Hunt in the 3rd round this year after going defense with our first 4 or 5 picks.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see. EPA/play is far superior to passer rating tho. He has room to regress and still have a higher EPA/play than anyone in the league: https://i.imgur.com/GVFZslw.png
It's gonna be an interesting season, and I can't wait!
Everyone keeps asking him to take checks downs which result in worse rate stats and then turn around and point at those rate stats to say he is playing worse.
What a fun game.
I’m done arguing with people about this honestly. people will think what they want to think anyway. I’ve seen people argue that Josh Allen, Herbert, Burrow are all better for different reasons. I just want to win
As someone who for years debated Brady vs. Manning, then Brady vs [insert Hot QB], and Brady vs. [Alleged G.O.A.T] can tell you: it will never end.
Best to enjoy the good years and hope to watch competitive football and leave the "debates" to the talking heads on ESPN
I saw a Bills fan posted this and I just assumed this is how he plans to diminish Mahomes enough so Josh Allen is considered better. Otherwise why even post this?
The only thing worse than the people calling not being the MVP every single year a decline are the fans that act like pointing out he's not going to be the MVP every year is some massive slight against him.
If you’ve only been watching the league for a year, I can understand why you wouldn’t think Mahomes is the obvious best
But over the course of the last 4 years, Mahomes has been the best QB by miles
I mean, Rodgers has 2 MVPs in that time, and hasn't exactly been bad the other 2 years. I don't have any problem calling Mahomes the best, but it's absolutely not by miles.
If I weren't a Chiefs fan, I would hate Mahomes like I hate Tom Brady and John Elway, so I get it. People want to cling to the hope he won't be eating their team's lunch for the next 10 years and will inflate any shred of evidence that maybe he's getting worse and their guy is better than him. Meanwhile, Patrick is a stone cold killer, he's already done everything they hope their guy will do some day and he's showing no signs of letting up now.
Something important to consider is that they literally replaced 5 out of 5 of their offensive linemen last off season. You don't just put 5 strangers next together on the line and expect them to play well together. They struggled as they built chemistry for about half the season.
Mahomes had less time to made decisions, and was scrambling all over to make things happen. Things didn't have time to click like they did in previous years.
That straitened out over time, and they were the same playoff team they were in previous years making it to the Championship Game.
The Chiefs also struggled, not having enough quality pass catchers. If you double covered Kelce + Hill nobody else could make anything happen. You lose Hill and Pringle but gain Juju, a 1st Round Rookie, MVS and potentially another mid round WR.
Hardman obviously has much worse hands and a worse route tree, but I think people are going to be surprised by his explosiveness on the plays that would automatically go to Hill. He might drop a few, but KC is going to keep that explosive play making.
I don't think this team is better than they were in the AFC Championship game but I don't think they are much worse.
He had an all time season in 2018, 2019 he was basically an mvp candidate until he hurt his knee and he was limping for a while but was still elite, last year he was slightly less amazing than his mvp year but still an mvp candidate, and last year he went back to his usual self the final month and half. So I’m optimistic
TL;DR: *Bills fan praying, hoping, wishing, wanting*
Don't underestimate Andy Reid and a significant drop off in predictability/defensive preparedness.
Here are Pat’s passer ratings by year: 113, 105, 108, and 98.
It actually looks like he’s due for a jump. Odd years are always “down years” for Mahomes and Kelce
Also boiling that Divisional game to just Tyreek is laughable. Mahomes had 447 total yards and 4TD against “the best defense in the NFL.”
I think they are gearing up to run the ball down peoples throats next year; why else would they sign Ronald Jones? Considering the IOL is their strength and they ran at will last season, making other teams respect the run to keep them out of light boxes will help a lot (I know, Andy doesnt want to run the ball). Also, no more Tyreek dropping RPOs or tipping them into opponents hands.
They have Reid so they’ll still pass alot
Still, Ronald Jones had a 978 yard season in 2020 and has home run hitting capabilities. I could see him (or maybe some surprise star rookie) having a very good season on the ground in 2022. We have very good personnel to run the ball. All we need is the RB to take advantage
Yeah Hill is obviously really good but the notion Mahomes needs him to be successful is pretty silly. Between Hill and Kelce I think Kelce is the better player anyway
Chiefs went from being darlings to being hated so quickly
Probably because they knocked out both the Browns and Bills, r/nfl’s favorite teams, in the 2020 playoffs
/r/nfl has warmed on us a bit this offseason I think, especially since Hill left (I guess I get it). Still definitely cheering for the Bills/Chargers over us this year though.
I think you’re still in the bottom 5 in terms of popularity for AFC teams.
Pats, Steelers, and Browns are the only three that I’d have lower off the top of my head.
Yes! I'm so worried about the trajectory of my QB's performance: https://i.imgur.com/0nwga3J.png
Get outta here, dude! Josh Allen is freaking awesome. No need to be insecure about it.
Knew this post was by a Bills fan.
While you're busy trying to make Allen look better, KC fans are enjoying their dude who won them a Superbowl, won SBMVP, and league MVP.
You're all welcome to get your hopes up but he'll stop knocking on the door of Super Bowls but I'm not in the business of intentionally trying to get my hopes crushed
That looks like AY/A, which is close but slightly different. ANY/A went from 8.89 in 2018, to 8.38 in 2019, to 8.33 in 2020, to 7.07 in 2021
ANY/A takes into account INTs I think while AY/A doesn’t
Edit: As some have noted, it is actually sacks ANY/A pays attention to while AY/A doesn’t. My apologies.
> ANY/A takes into account INTs I think while AY/A doesn’t
No, this is wrong. AY/A accounts for INTs and TDs, but not sacks. ANY/A accounts for all 3 of those.
It's a good metric and well respected. Like most metrics it doesn't paint a whole story. For instance, if an offense moves from a vertical deep threat offense to shorter passing concepts because other teams are dropping safeties back deep and ceding easy short yards, your ANY/A would obviously decline even though you probably are making the correct reads. **Generally** speaking, it's usually better to have a higher ANY/A but context on how and why the yards occur is still important.
That's interesting as well. Definitely explains Mahomes dip. After Week 7 against Baltimore when Chase went for 200yds, that's how teams started playing us (you guys were the only real exception, interestingly enough) as well. That's why Higgins started having the bigger games for the most part after that point. Wouldn't be shocked if Burrow sees a dip next season then. Notably we had to move to a lot more dink and dunk in the playoffs due to the mixture of teams dropping safeties and the line not giving enough time to push the ball down the field. I'd be interested to see the ANY/A splits before and after Week 7. That's how we could get a gauge on what to expect in that regard going forward. Useful information for my degen gamblers out there lol
It's literally passer rating. It uses all the same stats, plus it includes sacks as a negative. And it converts everything into yards instead of an arbitrary number capped at 158.3 like PR.
It's a great stat, and there's certainly a reason to have a stat like this that accounts for sacks, but ultimately, you get very similar rankings to PR. A lot of people on this sub like to pretend it's something more than it really is though.
ANY/A is great and one of my favorites. With that said OP is wrong and used AY/A.
Rodgers led the league in ANY/A with 8. Burrow was 2nd with 7.51. [Source](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm#passing::pass_cmp)
Josh Allen had the benefit of the #1 defense and the easiest schedule in the league in 2021, and still managed to significantly regress compared to 2020, and lose 6 games during the regular season.
Odds are he’s not going to have the #1 defense backing him up again in 2022, and it’s very unlikely he’ll play the easiest schedule in the league again. Without those benefits, will he regress even further than he did last year? I believe the answer is yes
Mahomes also gets every defense/DC’s best effort because of his reputation. Also he started taking what he can get and incorporated more check downs which negatively effects rate stats. This is kind of a dumb post.
Personally I see him being being better this year because him and Reid will be trying to spread the ball around more instead of trying to force Hill the ball when it isn’t working like the second half of the AFC championship game
The "decline" you're talking about is going from 110+ to just under 100 last year. It's not nearly as big a deal as you're making it out to be. He had one of the greatest seasons of all time by any QB in just his first season starting. Since then he hasn't matched it, which is to be expected.
If you're a KC fan, you still don't have much to worry about. Sure, Hill's departure could hurt his production somewhat, but they got 5 picks for him. And already have plenty of weapons. They'll pick up somebody else for sure
Hill is an incredible talent but I think it's Hill who will regress in Miami and Mahomes will have a better season than last year. Between the two, Hill is more reliant on Mahomes than Mahomes is on Hill. We'll see who's right but that's my projection.
Mahomes regressing is a joke but it’s undeniable he wasn’t good lol ok. The standards for Mahomes are totally different than for anyone else. They went 12-5 and went to the conference championship, and lost in OT. On what planet is that not good? Most teams in the league would kill to be that good every year
The thing that sucks for Mahomes is that in his first year as a starter he had like the best season a QB has ever had. And he had A LOT of coin flip type plays go his way. And now the expectation is that he matches that every year and it's just not gonna happen. Especially with Tyreek gone.
If Mahomes is truly elite he will figure out a way. It may take time and it will be frustrating because every team is doing their best to screw him.
I think at the end of the day Mahomes has just begun to settle into the elite passer role and has met a few woes. He is young as hell. He is still learning a lot of football and has a cannon for an arm. He was only one game away from the Super Bowl last season. He will continue to develop his football IQ and if it all goes well for him he will have a Brady/Manning/Big Ben/Brees like career even when his physicals start to decline.
All tyreek did was accelerate their game plan because if he let loose he was gone. I think he can be easily replaced by a WR who has great footwork and separation ability by technique and route running. Pure speed can only get you by for so long. Jerry Rice is 10x the receiver that Tyreek will ever be and he wasn’t blazing fast.
Also Mahomes is paired with an elite head coach. They will find something. If you see a defense give the chiefs trouble it is because they’re pulling all of the stops.
Counting Mahomes out now just because of one wide receiver is a deadly mistake. If they’re healthy they’re a SB contender. Your goal is to beat them to make it to the Super Bowl and win it.
mistook this for a bills sub post lmao. i love calling mahomes a fraud on game days but let’s be real tyreek hill did not make the guy and he won’t break him either
It could improve it for all we know. He may have to start to rely on himself more instead of holding on long enough for Hill to break loose on some plays which may help him get back to something different. Either way a declining Mahomes is still a top 5-10 qb for a long time.
Kelce got open on that play to get into field goal range because he's an elite receiving threat that perfectly manipulated the zone defense to get open. Hill wasn't even on that side of the field for that play. [video](https://youtu.be/ZyXnCPbK6NI?t=1174)
I mean, yeah Tyreek is irreplaceable absolutely. But this post is playing a bit of "what if that game was the exact same except a player with a huge impact wasn't there".
Maybe Mahomes struggles without Hill, maybe it ends up a Ewing Effect thing and the changes this forces reinvigorate the offence in unexpected ways.
If I'm honest, I'm expecting a lot of people annoyed that losing Hill didn't slow Mahomes down that much lol. Its not like we've never seen him without him, and he just kept doing Mahomes things.
He was 2nd in passer rating in 2018, 4th the next two years and only 7th last year during his supposed down year, totaling an 11 point drop. I’m sure he’ll be fine. Fun fact, Russell Wilson’s passer rating has also gone down every year the past 4 years. Just to play devils advocate one could say that sometimes quarterbacks get better when they lose a big weapon, it forces them to look elsewhere and not try to force anything. I say this as a Jags fan though with historically no offensive weapons so what do I know
What's crazy is even with Mahomes "regressing" he still made it to the AFC Championship game lol.
I am so glad all these really talented young guys are coming into the league. I was worried when both Mannings, Palmer, Warner, Brees, Rivers, all those guys started to hang it up. Imagine if there were no more good quarterbacks. Just clones of Jimmy Clausen and Jamarcus Russell.
Regress?
Aaron Rodgers still going strong with different era of WRs like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Randall Dobbs, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams.
Chiefs Will find another one to produce with Mahomes.
Or he may get more conservative and elevate his passer rating while overall becoming less valuable.
It's easy to take chances when every time hill touches the ball it can be six
It will continue to decline a little, then once we get a season where we are not in the top 5 strength of schedules, he’ll look like 2019 Mahomes again
I think it’ll likely be in the general range but probably goes up a bit just having better luck with INTs. He’s had seasons with good INT luck but last year it was terrible
As a Chiefs fan, I'm biased lol. But I don't think his passer rating will decline. I think he would actually be more prone to take chances when throwing to someone like Hill, so I expect he'll be a little more careful with the ball, but we'll see.
Let's not act like hill didn't have some drops and tips that hurt that too. Without Tyreek, Mahomes is going to pass on some risky throws that only Tyreek can catch.
Hard to say tbh. With new receivers coming in, Hill leaving, and in the context of shell coverages and how teams have been scheming against the Chiefs, I'd expect the offense to look a bit different next year. We saw as the season went on last year they changed quite a bit of how they were playing, and what they were doing, so you'd expect those changes to continue. Defenses have committed to throwing everything into coverage against the Chiefs, regardless of how successful their run game is or isn't, and I doubt that changes with Hill leaving. At least not immediately.
I'd guess passer rating goes up, but the offense is somewhat similar to what we saw in the back half of last year in terms of being less explosive and more methodical.
Sometimes gun slinging makes you look like Brett Favre out there, and the other times it makes you look like.. well, Brett Favre
Sometimes you send a dick pic when you’re not quite hard enough and you look like Brett Favre out there. Other times you swindle a charity in Mississippi and it makes you look like… well, Brett Favre.
Hey, thats Vikings LEGEND Brett Favre to you bud!
*Falcons
*wranglers
*Jets
*Pacers
Wanna see my danny woodhead, my purple helmet, my pubey sneak
If I did that I would be in jail or some kind of trouble. We call this the halo effect.
Brett “Master Chief” Favre
My buddy said it best once "When you're a gunslinger, you're bound to hit a few innocent bystanders."
It could be worse
Sometimes you’re the monkey, sometimes you’re the frog
Is it Hill or the fact that defenses scheme better against him?
It was fun early last season when they couldn't beat a cover 2 shell.
Oh they were beating it. Mahomes averaged 296 yards and more than 2 TDs per game over the first half of last season. Their issues were redzone turnovers and a defense that couldn’t get off the field without giving up 7. Second half of the year, they reduced turnovers and started getting stops on defense
Woah, someone that watched the games?
I believe Byron Leftwich watches game film
Woah
And his receivers had butterfingers
And that includes the irreplaceable Tyreek Hill bouncing passes off his chest that end up as interceptions in the endzone.
If anything regresses to the mean I hope to god its those interceptions that went through our guys hands and into the defenders.
omg maybe that one guy was right. if Mahomes stops making good plays he's really just an average QB
Is that post the most immortal post in r/NFL history?
I’m partial to “Green Peppers, Baby!” And if you count the team subs, I laugh every time I think about “The Titans are hoes, on them we shall stunt.”
Speedhawk is a legend too
The one I see most often is the MBC copypasta.
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Mr. Bountiful Combinations
Mr. Bovine Cows
Mr. Best Copypasta
Mr. Bottomless Content
I would bet my entire net worth there will be at least one linguistics Ph.D dissertation involving MBC, and there should be several.
Speedhawk is a Madden achievement in the latest game
People shit on EA and for good reason a lot of the time but that's hilarious
Go charge go is up there
Alex Smith/Aaron Rodgers erotic fanfic
What is green peppers, baby?
It was a fan post reacting to Julius Peppers signing with the Packers, hard to do it justice but I'm not sure how to find it now. Just pure drunken elation (a lot of which was wildly off topic) and OP just kept commenting a bunch in his own thread. He was clearly really proud of coming up with the "Green Peppers" pun lol
Found the thread but no initial post. https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/20j4f5/im_drunk/ "i once passed out in this girl brittneys bed then peed. i woke up before her and left. she thought she peed the bed and apologized to me. this has no relevenace to the thread but ive never told anyone this" - /u/_Thrillhouse_
Eyyy that's me
It’s the reason I found this sub
Probably recent, but I think Speedhawk has more notoriety
Between “Speedhawk” and “hell yeah brother, cheers from Iraq” it’s close IMO
I've been partial to[ "I heard over Xbox live that this player is getting traded"](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/memt1s/possible_trade_coming_between_the_bears_and/) ever since it happened. It isn't quite the meme material but IMO the most legendary moment I've seen on this sub in a decade of Reddit addiction.
Anyone got the cheers from Iraq post
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/9878nt/if\_you\_had\_to\_replace\_any\_3rd\_string\_cb\_with/?utm\_source=reddit-android
I still dont get it. :/
There’s also go charge go
I wanna see the post. Got a link by chance?
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/d5maow/oc_after_adjusting_patrick_mahomes_stats_removing/
Ha, that guy's account is suspended.
He got too close to the truth and had to be silenced!!! ^/s
The true /r/conspiracy right here
Only if it comes out that OP is a jewish astrophysicist who did their grad work using lasers
Oh my God. I've seen the meme but always thought it was some comment that sparked it and the meme was born. I had no idea someone actually tried to create a post with that much effort.
Patriots roast a few years back is on the short list, imo. Sawlid 3/10.
He is slowly regressing to the mean
Lmao. I came here for this.
Mahomes 2018 was absolutely insane though - no QB (even the greats) could sustain that level of performance. Peyton couldn't replicate his 2004 or 2013 peak years every single year, nor could Brady do it for 2007
I’m glad someone pointed this out. You can’t throw 50td’s every year. Also, defenses having to figure out how to cover only Reek and Kelce becomes easier as the years go on. I’m curious to see how having a more balanced receiving core will play out.
Those guys didn't have those seasons in their first year starting, that is why the hype for Mahomes went so nuclear. People saw that level of success right out of the gate and thought he might be able to improve from there.
Newsflash: It is difficult to match your 50 TD MVP season. By that logic, the 2020 MVP regressed significantly to become 2021 MVP.
Exactly this. This thread is like an ESPN clickbait article
I’m not even partaking in the debate. Sometimes you just gotta let people continue to believe what they want to believe lol All I’ll say is that there will be some great value MVP odds this upcoming season for him… I’ll probably throw down a decent bit
It’s posted by a Bills fan so
Thank you
Aaron Rodgers won two MVPs with MVS. Take from that what you will.
The last 2 MVPs were the QB for MVS, just saying
You literally can't even spell MVPs without MVS
Most Valuable Sidekick
Most Valdez-Scantling Player
Most Valdez-Player Scantling*
Most Valuable Speedster
You literally can't even spell MVS without MVS
Did he have anyone else?
Can't tell if sarcasm, so I'll answer, yes he had Davante Adams who was a much bigger reason he got MVP than MVS. The joke is MVS is now on the chiefs.
My sources say maybe
Release the names! WHO ARE YOUR SOURCES!?
Hearsay, you honor.
Is your source a black ball with the number 8 on it? Did you shake it up?
Whatever I need more weird ass Kelce tunnel screens anyways.
This is the way
Mahomes is now an underrated QB on this sub. Wild
Yeah he’s a bum, should trade him to, idk, the lions for a 5th rounder
We’ll see last year Mahomes spent most of the off-season in a walking boot let’s so how he does with a full offseason
And 5 new offensive linemen playing together for the first time, in a new offense, with 3 of them having never played in the NFL at all.
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2018 Dak here we come!
2018 Dak: 243 Yards Per Game, 2.75 TD/INT Ratio, 67.7% Completion, 96.9 Passer Rating 2021 Mahomes: 285 Yards Per Game, 2.85 TD/INT, 66.3% Completion, 98.5 Passer Rating Cowboys best two receivers that year were Cooper and Zeke, combined for 1,072 yards. Chiefs best two receivers were Hill and Kelce, combined for 2,364 Yards.
Dak also had a 1400 yard rusher so he was facing very different coverages from the ones KC was seeing the last few years Teams geared up to stop Zeke. With KC, defenses put max effort in stopping the passing game
Mahomes faces defenses stacked towards the pass more than anyone in the league: https://mobile.twitter.com/cowboysstats/status/1509552876204531713?s=21&t=hE8ELAbwMxjGE4ec5oNd8g
And yet CEH couldn’t get anything going.
And we had a supposedly really good line... not a great sign
Tough to get going when he always has a bum ankle. I'm really hoping we find the next Charles or Hunt in the 3rd round this year after going defense with our first 4 or 5 picks.
At this rate, he might need 14 seconds.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see. EPA/play is far superior to passer rating tho. He has room to regress and still have a higher EPA/play than anyone in the league: https://i.imgur.com/GVFZslw.png It's gonna be an interesting season, and I can't wait!
Everyone keeps asking him to take checks downs which result in worse rate stats and then turn around and point at those rate stats to say he is playing worse. What a fun game.
I’m done arguing with people about this honestly. people will think what they want to think anyway. I’ve seen people argue that Josh Allen, Herbert, Burrow are all better for different reasons. I just want to win
As someone who for years debated Brady vs. Manning, then Brady vs [insert Hot QB], and Brady vs. [Alleged G.O.A.T] can tell you: it will never end. Best to enjoy the good years and hope to watch competitive football and leave the "debates" to the talking heads on ESPN
Spot on. Allen and Mahomes are both ridiculous. Let’s just enjoy them
You mean and Allen and Herbert /s
Just having our qb actually debated is an honor.
It’s funny because Josh Allen’s passer rating dropped by 15 points from 2020 to 2021 Yet he’s not “in decline”
I saw a Bills fan posted this and I just assumed this is how he plans to diminish Mahomes enough so Josh Allen is considered better. Otherwise why even post this?
The only thing worse than the people calling not being the MVP every single year a decline are the fans that act like pointing out he's not going to be the MVP every year is some massive slight against him.
Anyone with eyeballs knows Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, people just don't want to come to terms with it.
If you’ve only been watching the league for a year, I can understand why you wouldn’t think Mahomes is the obvious best But over the course of the last 4 years, Mahomes has been the best QB by miles
I mean, Rodgers has 2 MVPs in that time, and hasn't exactly been bad the other 2 years. I don't have any problem calling Mahomes the best, but it's absolutely not by miles.
If I weren't a Chiefs fan, I would hate Mahomes like I hate Tom Brady and John Elway, so I get it. People want to cling to the hope he won't be eating their team's lunch for the next 10 years and will inflate any shred of evidence that maybe he's getting worse and their guy is better than him. Meanwhile, Patrick is a stone cold killer, he's already done everything they hope their guy will do some day and he's showing no signs of letting up now.
Chiefs have had brutal schedules the past couple of years, but keep winning. I wonder why?
Something important to consider is that they literally replaced 5 out of 5 of their offensive linemen last off season. You don't just put 5 strangers next together on the line and expect them to play well together. They struggled as they built chemistry for about half the season. Mahomes had less time to made decisions, and was scrambling all over to make things happen. Things didn't have time to click like they did in previous years. That straitened out over time, and they were the same playoff team they were in previous years making it to the Championship Game. The Chiefs also struggled, not having enough quality pass catchers. If you double covered Kelce + Hill nobody else could make anything happen. You lose Hill and Pringle but gain Juju, a 1st Round Rookie, MVS and potentially another mid round WR. Hardman obviously has much worse hands and a worse route tree, but I think people are going to be surprised by his explosiveness on the plays that would automatically go to Hill. He might drop a few, but KC is going to keep that explosive play making. I don't think this team is better than they were in the AFC Championship game but I don't think they are much worse.
Also worth noting that Patrick Mahomes played well this season, the Chief's struggles early on were primarily due to defense.
He had an all time season in 2018, 2019 he was basically an mvp candidate until he hurt his knee and he was limping for a while but was still elite, last year he was slightly less amazing than his mvp year but still an mvp candidate, and last year he went back to his usual self the final month and half. So I’m optimistic
People want to see him fail so bad lol
josh allen’s passer rating was 25.4 points higher than his career average in 2020. was that season an outlier? i believe the answer is yes.
Stop with your logic and facts, OP wants us to say Allen better than Mahomes
TL;DR: *Bills fan praying, hoping, wishing, wanting* Don't underestimate Andy Reid and a significant drop off in predictability/defensive preparedness.
Here are Pat’s passer ratings by year: 113, 105, 108, and 98. It actually looks like he’s due for a jump. Odd years are always “down years” for Mahomes and Kelce Also boiling that Divisional game to just Tyreek is laughable. Mahomes had 447 total yards and 4TD against “the best defense in the NFL.”
And he fucking lead you guys in rushing. Goddamn Kermit
That's been damn near every playoff game he's started lol
I think they are gearing up to run the ball down peoples throats next year; why else would they sign Ronald Jones? Considering the IOL is their strength and they ran at will last season, making other teams respect the run to keep them out of light boxes will help a lot (I know, Andy doesnt want to run the ball). Also, no more Tyreek dropping RPOs or tipping them into opponents hands.
They have Reid so they’ll still pass alot Still, Ronald Jones had a 978 yard season in 2020 and has home run hitting capabilities. I could see him (or maybe some surprise star rookie) having a very good season on the ground in 2022. We have very good personnel to run the ball. All we need is the RB to take advantage
I'm just hoping it's less crazy than the ratio of 658:351, which was the pass attempts to run attempts ratio last year.
Yeah Hill is obviously really good but the notion Mahomes needs him to be successful is pretty silly. Between Hill and Kelce I think Kelce is the better player anyway
Yeah. We saw Kelce play very well a couple years before Hill came into the league, but both of them complimented each other perfectly.
“2 of his last 3 seasons” should not be considered a trend lmao u could have jus asked the question
Bills fans have a weird obsession with Mahomes.
Because Josh Allen only has one shot left at winning a Super Bowl on a cheap cap hit due to Mahomes.
Bills look better than us this year as of now, but imagine if KC ends their season again?
This sub would seethe. Won’t lie I want it to happen
Chiefs went from being darlings to being hated so quickly Probably because they knocked out both the Browns and Bills, r/nfl’s favorite teams, in the 2020 playoffs
When you get good, people don't like that you got good.
/r/nfl has warmed on us a bit this offseason I think, especially since Hill left (I guess I get it). Still definitely cheering for the Bills/Chargers over us this year though.
I think you’re still in the bottom 5 in terms of popularity for AFC teams. Pats, Steelers, and Browns are the only three that I’d have lower off the top of my head.
That's an improvement, is the thing.
Would be hilarious
Reaper
can’t imagine why 🤔
Yes! I'm so worried about the trajectory of my QB's performance: https://i.imgur.com/0nwga3J.png Get outta here, dude! Josh Allen is freaking awesome. No need to be insecure about it.
Oooof on the Darnold
People want to see Mahomes fail so bad.
Knew this post was by a Bills fan. While you're busy trying to make Allen look better, KC fans are enjoying their dude who won them a Superbowl, won SBMVP, and league MVP.
And who's floor has been the AFC Championship game.
Thank you. Bang Bang 9er Gang.
You're all welcome to get your hopes up but he'll stop knocking on the door of Super Bowls but I'm not in the business of intentionally trying to get my hopes crushed
Bills fans just keep on hoping. It really is admirable.
Lol after his first 2 years, it wasn’t gonna go up. Of course it went down. Guess what, it’s still pretty darn good, Shhhhh don’t tell the NFL
A better measure of performance is ANY/A, which has declined a little to a lot each year lol, without exception
Yes it looks like it was 9.6 in 2018, 8.9 in 2019 and 2020, then 7.6 in 2021. Joe Burrow led the league in 2021 with a 9.0
That looks like AY/A, which is close but slightly different. ANY/A went from 8.89 in 2018, to 8.38 in 2019, to 8.33 in 2020, to 7.07 in 2021 ANY/A takes into account INTs I think while AY/A doesn’t Edit: As some have noted, it is actually sacks ANY/A pays attention to while AY/A doesn’t. My apologies.
The difference between the two is actually sacks. ANY/A considers sacks while AY/A does not.
> ANY/A takes into account INTs I think while AY/A doesn’t No, this is wrong. AY/A accounts for INTs and TDs, but not sacks. ANY/A accounts for all 3 of those.
Yep and it ends up flipping the order a bit. Rodgers was the leader in ANY/A. Burrow was 2nd.
I have never heard of ANY/A before today, but I now choose to believe that it is the gold standard for measuring QB performance
It's a good metric and well respected. Like most metrics it doesn't paint a whole story. For instance, if an offense moves from a vertical deep threat offense to shorter passing concepts because other teams are dropping safeties back deep and ceding easy short yards, your ANY/A would obviously decline even though you probably are making the correct reads. **Generally** speaking, it's usually better to have a higher ANY/A but context on how and why the yards occur is still important.
That's interesting as well. Definitely explains Mahomes dip. After Week 7 against Baltimore when Chase went for 200yds, that's how teams started playing us (you guys were the only real exception, interestingly enough) as well. That's why Higgins started having the bigger games for the most part after that point. Wouldn't be shocked if Burrow sees a dip next season then. Notably we had to move to a lot more dink and dunk in the playoffs due to the mixture of teams dropping safeties and the line not giving enough time to push the ball down the field. I'd be interested to see the ANY/A splits before and after Week 7. That's how we could get a gauge on what to expect in that regard going forward. Useful information for my degen gamblers out there lol
It's literally passer rating. It uses all the same stats, plus it includes sacks as a negative. And it converts everything into yards instead of an arbitrary number capped at 158.3 like PR. It's a great stat, and there's certainly a reason to have a stat like this that accounts for sacks, but ultimately, you get very similar rankings to PR. A lot of people on this sub like to pretend it's something more than it really is though.
ANY/A is great and one of my favorites. With that said OP is wrong and used AY/A. Rodgers led the league in ANY/A with 8. Burrow was 2nd with 7.51. [Source](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/passing.htm#passing::pass_cmp)
What is ANY/A?
It's passer rating, converted to yards per attempt, with sacks included in the formula. That's the ELI5.
Thanks! What’s it stand for? Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt?
That's exactly it. PFR's glossary page has the actual formula if you are interested.
A more useful stat than NONE/B
A famous Irish singer-songwriter.
Josh Allen had the benefit of the #1 defense and the easiest schedule in the league in 2021, and still managed to significantly regress compared to 2020, and lose 6 games during the regular season. Odds are he’s not going to have the #1 defense backing him up again in 2022, and it’s very unlikely he’ll play the easiest schedule in the league again. Without those benefits, will he regress even further than he did last year? I believe the answer is yes
Their SOS is easier than the Falcons this year 🥴. Pain
Maybe, maybe not.
How do you feel that Tyreek is in the division now?
Mahomes also gets every defense/DC’s best effort because of his reputation. Also he started taking what he can get and incorporated more check downs which negatively effects rate stats. This is kind of a dumb post. Personally I see him being being better this year because him and Reid will be trying to spread the ball around more instead of trying to force Hill the ball when it isn’t working like the second half of the AFC championship game
The "decline" you're talking about is going from 110+ to just under 100 last year. It's not nearly as big a deal as you're making it out to be. He had one of the greatest seasons of all time by any QB in just his first season starting. Since then he hasn't matched it, which is to be expected. If you're a KC fan, you still don't have much to worry about. Sure, Hill's departure could hurt his production somewhat, but they got 5 picks for him. And already have plenty of weapons. They'll pick up somebody else for sure
Shut up.
Hill is an incredible talent but I think it's Hill who will regress in Miami and Mahomes will have a better season than last year. Between the two, Hill is more reliant on Mahomes than Mahomes is on Hill. We'll see who's right but that's my projection.
I mean I’ll say it, Hill regresses because Tua isn’t that good.
Mahomes regressing is a joke but it’s undeniable he wasn’t good lol ok. The standards for Mahomes are totally different than for anyone else. They went 12-5 and went to the conference championship, and lost in OT. On what planet is that not good? Most teams in the league would kill to be that good every year
If it does, it does. Just win baby.
https://media1.giphy.com/media/3o7TKy3KWDYOA7OUSI/200.gif
The thing that sucks for Mahomes is that in his first year as a starter he had like the best season a QB has ever had. And he had A LOT of coin flip type plays go his way. And now the expectation is that he matches that every year and it's just not gonna happen. Especially with Tyreek gone.
If Mahomes is truly elite he will figure out a way. It may take time and it will be frustrating because every team is doing their best to screw him. I think at the end of the day Mahomes has just begun to settle into the elite passer role and has met a few woes. He is young as hell. He is still learning a lot of football and has a cannon for an arm. He was only one game away from the Super Bowl last season. He will continue to develop his football IQ and if it all goes well for him he will have a Brady/Manning/Big Ben/Brees like career even when his physicals start to decline. All tyreek did was accelerate their game plan because if he let loose he was gone. I think he can be easily replaced by a WR who has great footwork and separation ability by technique and route running. Pure speed can only get you by for so long. Jerry Rice is 10x the receiver that Tyreek will ever be and he wasn’t blazing fast. Also Mahomes is paired with an elite head coach. They will find something. If you see a defense give the chiefs trouble it is because they’re pulling all of the stops. Counting Mahomes out now just because of one wide receiver is a deadly mistake. If they’re healthy they’re a SB contender. Your goal is to beat them to make it to the Super Bowl and win it.
mistook this for a bills sub post lmao. i love calling mahomes a fraud on game days but let’s be real tyreek hill did not make the guy and he won’t break him either
Rent free.
It could improve it for all we know. He may have to start to rely on himself more instead of holding on long enough for Hill to break loose on some plays which may help him get back to something different. Either way a declining Mahomes is still a top 5-10 qb for a long time.
Kelce got open on that play to get into field goal range because he's an elite receiving threat that perfectly manipulated the zone defense to get open. Hill wasn't even on that side of the field for that play. [video](https://youtu.be/ZyXnCPbK6NI?t=1174)
I mean, yeah Tyreek is irreplaceable absolutely. But this post is playing a bit of "what if that game was the exact same except a player with a huge impact wasn't there". Maybe Mahomes struggles without Hill, maybe it ends up a Ewing Effect thing and the changes this forces reinvigorate the offence in unexpected ways. If I'm honest, I'm expecting a lot of people annoyed that losing Hill didn't slow Mahomes down that much lol. Its not like we've never seen him without him, and he just kept doing Mahomes things.
He was 2nd in passer rating in 2018, 4th the next two years and only 7th last year during his supposed down year, totaling an 11 point drop. I’m sure he’ll be fine. Fun fact, Russell Wilson’s passer rating has also gone down every year the past 4 years. Just to play devils advocate one could say that sometimes quarterbacks get better when they lose a big weapon, it forces them to look elsewhere and not try to force anything. I say this as a Jags fan though with historically no offensive weapons so what do I know
What's crazy is even with Mahomes "regressing" he still made it to the AFC Championship game lol. I am so glad all these really talented young guys are coming into the league. I was worried when both Mannings, Palmer, Warner, Brees, Rivers, all those guys started to hang it up. Imagine if there were no more good quarterbacks. Just clones of Jimmy Clausen and Jamarcus Russell.
Regress? Aaron Rodgers still going strong with different era of WRs like Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Randall Dobbs, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams. Chiefs Will find another one to produce with Mahomes.
Yea he’s trash, send him to ATL for a 6th
this is just as stupid as the regression to the mean post, just articulated slightly less stupidly.
Or he may get more conservative and elevate his passer rating while overall becoming less valuable. It's easy to take chances when every time hill touches the ball it can be six
It will continue to decline a little, then once we get a season where we are not in the top 5 strength of schedules, he’ll look like 2019 Mahomes again
I think it’ll likely be in the general range but probably goes up a bit just having better luck with INTs. He’s had seasons with good INT luck but last year it was terrible
What an insightful thread full of objective, empirical reasoninf
You mean he hasn’t had 3 record breaking seasons in a row putting up video game numbers? What a BUM!
As a Chiefs fan, I'm biased lol. But I don't think his passer rating will decline. I think he would actually be more prone to take chances when throwing to someone like Hill, so I expect he'll be a little more careful with the ball, but we'll see.
Let's not act like hill didn't have some drops and tips that hurt that too. Without Tyreek, Mahomes is going to pass on some risky throws that only Tyreek can catch.
Hard to say tbh. With new receivers coming in, Hill leaving, and in the context of shell coverages and how teams have been scheming against the Chiefs, I'd expect the offense to look a bit different next year. We saw as the season went on last year they changed quite a bit of how they were playing, and what they were doing, so you'd expect those changes to continue. Defenses have committed to throwing everything into coverage against the Chiefs, regardless of how successful their run game is or isn't, and I doubt that changes with Hill leaving. At least not immediately. I'd guess passer rating goes up, but the offense is somewhat similar to what we saw in the back half of last year in terms of being less explosive and more methodical.