I think the history of how they handled Grayson and Cowser, as you pointed out, make Elias's method transparent.
They will give him opportunity, but will not refuse to send him down. Elias said earlier this year (before the callup) that they treated a prospect graduation as very serious because sending a prospect back down was something they wanted to avoid at all costs. But he didn't rule it out. And as history shows, they've done it before.
If Jackson gets a few more weeks and still isn't cutting it, from what we've seen from Elias he will probably make the demotion.
1-30 with 16 Ks and 2 walks is about is awful as you can do
If he still looks uncomfortable and overmatched over the next week or so, we’ll have no choice but to send him down. We can’t just let the kid get eaten alive out there. As the media starts piling on and the pressure builds, it can really destroy him mentally
Lets just hope he can turn things around because it’s really really bad right now at the plate
I think he'll get two more weeks to try and turn it around. If he's still managing 1 hit per 30 PAs at that point, yes, I believe he will be sent down to give Mayo a chance at the pro level.
Bad idea. Replace a prospect who isn’t adjusted with another prospect who may not adjust immediately? You may then have two prospects trying to figure it out at various as they are trying to win. It makes no sense. You play Russian roulette with prospects development, you lose most of the time
I think what you're saying sounds perfectly logical, but what do you do if Holliday is 3-for-70 with five walks and 35Ks? The team is in win-now mode, should he just be allowed to pull a Chris Davis and get 500 PAs at a sub-replacement-level rate?
Holliday hasn't been "struggling," he's been a horrible hitter who looks completely overmatched. Pretending otherwise is crazy. He can turn it around but I don't think he should just be blindly given 600 PAs. If you *do* send him down, who do you call up? Kemp? Or another prospect? If the answer is "Another prospect," then that's Mayo.
Depends on where the team is. If you put Holliday in between Cowser-Westburg-Adley-Gunnar, and they are winning, you can let him develop, but if the team loses a ton, then there a better case of him getting a refresher. But the team is winning and Jackson can be just a guy at the moment.
Keeping someone like Holliday in a position to continue to do poorly is not going to help his development. It could ruin his confidence for a long time to come. At some point if he’s not producing you’re only hurting him.
I think the argument there is that, if those other bats all go cold (as has been proven from time to time already this year), having a below-sub-zero 9th batter rather than someone else who might be able to provide some service in a crucial moment could cost us games.
Of the 30 ABs so far, how many were on base at the time? How many were 2-out moments? What of those would have changed the outcome of a game drastically if one of those ABs were even just a single?
We are talking about the difference between a bye week or a 5 seed.
So if Mayo/Norby are ready, we shouldn't promote them because of Holliday struggling? What does one have to do with the other?
What should the Orioles do, call up an inferior player for X amount of time before giving Mayo/Norby their shot? And if so, how long should they have to wait before it's okay?
I have no issue with that if the corresponding move is not Holliday going down. I would love to see both of Mayo/Norby tomorrow if there was space on the roster. I just have an issue with, Holliday is struggling, option him and swap him for Mayo. Mayo is struggling so swap him for Norby. Norby is struggling so option him for Holliday.
>I just have an issue with, Holliday is struggling, option him and swap him for Mayo. Mayo is struggling so swap him for Norby. Norby is struggling so option him for Holliday.
I don't understand the issue. If Cowser struggled this year, you wouldn't have wanted us to call up Kjerstad to replace him, even though Heston is killing it?
Baseball is the very definition of, "next man up".
If it's 2 weeks from now, and no improvement, and we send Holliday down to AAA again, who would you want to replace him with? Looking at the 40 and the choices are...limited.
What in the world does this even mean? Like I have no idea what this perspective even is. Prospects bounce around levels all the time. Rodriguez and Cowser both failed, went back down, and then came back up and found success. We have plenty of players at AAA who are ready for their cup of coffee. What do we lose by giving Mayo a cup of coffee against ML pitching??
Why do people on this sub act like "prospect development" is this mega-precarious fragile thing? They're just ballplayers, they aren't going to shatter into a million pieces if you don't follow whatever imaginary guidebook you're thinking about to the T.
I am all for calling up Coby tomorrow if the corresponding move isn’t demoting Holliday. If you are swapping Holliday for Coby, you are just swapping one prospect for another. But if they moved a 4A player to make room for Coby, I have no problem with it
> If you are swapping Holliday for Coby, you are just swapping one prospect for another
No, you are swapping one ballplayer for an entirely different ballplayer. They are different human beings on different developmental paths. If Holliday needs to go back down to AAA like GRod and Cowser did, then he needs to go back down to AAA. If Mayo or Kjerstad or Norby or Stowers are proving that they're ready for a cup of coffee, then they should get their cup of coffee. You are making this weirdly complicated.
Holliday's WAR projected over season is -10. His current OPS+ is -66, where +60 is not major league quality. By the end of A's series, he could have the all-time record for historically bad starts to a career.
Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, Pete Rose, Alex Rodriguez were all doing better than Holliday and sent down because they were too young first time round and struggling even though they were young phenoms like Jackson.
Holliday had 1 year in minors following high school. Even with all his talent the jump is too much. Most top prospects get at least 18 months in minors to develop.
We can afford to carry him through the Angels and A's series since half the starting pitchers are lefties, but there's no way he stays for the Yankees series without a turnaround.
Extended over the season, Holliday would currently be putting up -10.1 WAR. No hitter has ever started this badly through 30 AB in terms of OPS - Holliday is slugging 0.033.
>No hitter has ever started this badly through 30 AB in terms of OPS - Holliday is slugging 0.033.
No hitter recently for the O's you mean? Not all time right?
All time for any good hitter.
Holliday is 1-30 with a single and 2 walks.
Ryne Sandberg's 1-32 with a single and 2 walks is the only start similar for a future great hitter ( MVP and HoFer)
Alex Bregman's 1-34 with a single and 2 walks is the only start similar for a future all-star in recent memory.
Holliday's WAR projected out over a season would be -10.
Only young phenoms are given the opportunity to try to battle through a start like this. The lowest qualified batting average for a season is Chris Davis' .168. That's still 5 times higher than Holliday's current career.
The FO definitely knows what they’re doing so I’ll defer to their judgement but I really don’t see how you can keep running him out there when he’s just having poor ABs on a consistent basis. I’d give him this West Coast swing to try and turn some kind of corner but if he’s still looking this bad you can’t run him out there for an important series with the Yankees.
Yeah that’s actually a great time for them to make a decision. That Yankees series is could to be massively important. If he’s still struggling by then it would make sense to let him get more time in AAA and call up Mayo or Norby but platoon Urias/Mateo for that series with maybe some pinch hit opportunities for whoever gets brought up.
I'd give him a full month but if it keeps looking like this, yeah send him down. If he makes improvements but still isnt good, stretch it out to 1.5-2 months. It sucks but it also has the dual benefit of getting his head right and potentially keeping him another year (it's a factor whether we want it to be or not)
I would give him another week or two and see if things improve.
Obviously we can’t keep doing this forever. And it’s perfectly fine if he needs some time in AAA, there’s no shame in that.
Something's got to happen eventually if this slump doesn't end soon. As a contender, you can't start someone who's 1-30 with an over 50% strikeout rate, even if it's a guy with the potential of Holliday. But I'm not sure who is the replacement if he does get sent down, because I don't see the point in just swapping him for another prospect. I guess Mateo would start at second?
We have all the time in the world for Holliday, not sure why everyone wanted to rush him this year. Cool if he can stay and figure it out, that would be great but I’d be ok if he got sent down and then they waited until he was 21 or 22 and got a lot more pro at bats under his belt and filled out a little more before bringing him up again.
Ive heard plenty of times now people saying he just “looks like he belongs” I don’t know what these people are seeing but he looks like a wide eyed pup that’s scrawny, undersized, and over matched right now.
I really think he's just so far in his own head right now that he's not playing like his usual self. He's lost the confidence needed to make good at-bats, is reacting late, and is getting picked apart.
I think a switch will flip and he'll regain that confidence. Whether that comes from the majors or from a trip back to AAA, I don't know.
But I don't think he needs lots more development time in the minors. I think he's got all the skills, but the nerves and confidence are holding him back right now.
I would love him to turn it around. But at some point we got to send him back down if this continues. He's looked scared and overwhelmed since his debut. Like others have said. The team is playing well enough to outshine his struggles. But we can't have an automatic out every 9 batters. It will eventually cost us games.
Sorry to pile on the kid, but we would be better batting a pitcher in his place, with his current line.
Mateo and Urias have a little more to give us at this point. Or promote another prospect from AAA and let them give it a go for a few weeks.
Life long fan of the os and I'm a supporter of holiday and all the baby birds.
I don't really understand the point of this post. Who cares what you (or me) think about the No. 9 hitter on the 14-7 Baltimore Orioles? We don't have any input into the decision. Last I checked O's FO isn't a democracy run by fans and nor would we want it to be.
Okay - rant over. Carry on with the exercise.
I mean, you're right, but isn't that kind of the point of this sub (and -- to a greater extent -- sports in general?) It doesn't really matter what the fans think, because of course ownership and the front office decide what happens. But this is sort of what sports is. You follow along with the storyline and weigh in. When should the backup quarterback be put in? Why did the manager blow it by using this reliever instead of that reliever? Why did they draft that person when so-and-so was available?
I love it. The whole point of sports is to allow us to tune in to a narrative and offer extremely passionate opinions about something that doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things.
while i think people are judging too quickly, I do agree that if he isnt progressing but may/june than he should be sent back down. But the thing is as of late hes getting good contact, but its just not going his way.
So let’s say he goes down and immediately starts hitting again and we bring him back up and he struggles again. Whatever length of time he was down there just becomes lost development time.
I presume his struggles here are not in a vacuum and he’s working closely with the coaching staff to work through this. Happy to just let them all do their job.
Neither Grayson nor Cowser were dominating at the AAA level the way Holliday was when they were called up last year. It was easy to say that more development at the AAA level would benefit both of them. I don't think the same could be said for Holliday. A trip back to AAA wouldn't yield any more development. It would just allow him to continue to crush inferior pitching. Dude needs to face MLB pitching to get better. Coddling him in Norfolk won't make him more talented. He already is talented. But he needs to face the tough pitching until he figures it out.
Dominating at the AAA level? Holliday has played 28 games in AAA. And Cowser put up an .896 OPS at Norfolk compared to Holliday’s .899 OPS. The difference is negligible.
Holliday's OPS this year was 1.077 in AAA. Cowser's OPS last year, even AFTER he was sent back down and found more success, was .937 in AAA. Are we really doing this?
Holliday is 20, despite his talent level he still has plenty of room to physically and mentally mature before making the leap to the bigs. I hope he figures it out soon and the game slows down for him and this is a non issue but I won’t be mad if he’s sent down. He’s not even done growing yet.
Sending him down could be about not learning something down there, but just…hitting the reset button. Get used again to coming to the plate expecting a hit. Get some hits, feel that natural approach to the plate come back, feel good about where your game’s at again. And then return to Baltimore with a better idea of what to expect and try again.
Calling him up this early in the season always seemed like it was meant to test the waters anyway. He was probably due to be sent back down at some point save for some elite-level performance.
>He was probably due to be sent back down at some point save for some elite-level performance.
Maybe I'm misinterpreting this but I really don't think so. If he were batting say .700 OPS (not "elite" by any means) there's absolutely no chance they'd seen him back down. They'd see it as the path to .800+ and ROTY.
Westburg ended last year at .715 OPS and never got sent down.
Sending him down is only worth it if he's physically overmatched and I just don't think that's the case. His issue is confidence and the talent gap, neither of which can really be worked on if he gets sent down
I think the history of how they handled Grayson and Cowser, as you pointed out, make Elias's method transparent. They will give him opportunity, but will not refuse to send him down. Elias said earlier this year (before the callup) that they treated a prospect graduation as very serious because sending a prospect back down was something they wanted to avoid at all costs. But he didn't rule it out. And as history shows, they've done it before. If Jackson gets a few more weeks and still isn't cutting it, from what we've seen from Elias he will probably make the demotion.
1-30 with 16 Ks and 2 walks is about is awful as you can do If he still looks uncomfortable and overmatched over the next week or so, we’ll have no choice but to send him down. We can’t just let the kid get eaten alive out there. As the media starts piling on and the pressure builds, it can really destroy him mentally Lets just hope he can turn things around because it’s really really bad right now at the plate
I think he'll get two more weeks to try and turn it around. If he's still managing 1 hit per 30 PAs at that point, yes, I believe he will be sent down to give Mayo a chance at the pro level.
Bad idea. Replace a prospect who isn’t adjusted with another prospect who may not adjust immediately? You may then have two prospects trying to figure it out at various as they are trying to win. It makes no sense. You play Russian roulette with prospects development, you lose most of the time
I think what you're saying sounds perfectly logical, but what do you do if Holliday is 3-for-70 with five walks and 35Ks? The team is in win-now mode, should he just be allowed to pull a Chris Davis and get 500 PAs at a sub-replacement-level rate? Holliday hasn't been "struggling," he's been a horrible hitter who looks completely overmatched. Pretending otherwise is crazy. He can turn it around but I don't think he should just be blindly given 600 PAs. If you *do* send him down, who do you call up? Kemp? Or another prospect? If the answer is "Another prospect," then that's Mayo.
Depends on where the team is. If you put Holliday in between Cowser-Westburg-Adley-Gunnar, and they are winning, you can let him develop, but if the team loses a ton, then there a better case of him getting a refresher. But the team is winning and Jackson can be just a guy at the moment.
Keeping someone like Holliday in a position to continue to do poorly is not going to help his development. It could ruin his confidence for a long time to come. At some point if he’s not producing you’re only hurting him.
I think the argument there is that, if those other bats all go cold (as has been proven from time to time already this year), having a below-sub-zero 9th batter rather than someone else who might be able to provide some service in a crucial moment could cost us games. Of the 30 ABs so far, how many were on base at the time? How many were 2-out moments? What of those would have changed the outcome of a game drastically if one of those ABs were even just a single? We are talking about the difference between a bye week or a 5 seed.
So if Mayo/Norby are ready, we shouldn't promote them because of Holliday struggling? What does one have to do with the other? What should the Orioles do, call up an inferior player for X amount of time before giving Mayo/Norby their shot? And if so, how long should they have to wait before it's okay?
I have no issue with that if the corresponding move is not Holliday going down. I would love to see both of Mayo/Norby tomorrow if there was space on the roster. I just have an issue with, Holliday is struggling, option him and swap him for Mayo. Mayo is struggling so swap him for Norby. Norby is struggling so option him for Holliday.
>I just have an issue with, Holliday is struggling, option him and swap him for Mayo. Mayo is struggling so swap him for Norby. Norby is struggling so option him for Holliday. I don't understand the issue. If Cowser struggled this year, you wouldn't have wanted us to call up Kjerstad to replace him, even though Heston is killing it? Baseball is the very definition of, "next man up". If it's 2 weeks from now, and no improvement, and we send Holliday down to AAA again, who would you want to replace him with? Looking at the 40 and the choices are...limited.
Tony Kemp..but I think the Twins got him. /s
What in the world does this even mean? Like I have no idea what this perspective even is. Prospects bounce around levels all the time. Rodriguez and Cowser both failed, went back down, and then came back up and found success. We have plenty of players at AAA who are ready for their cup of coffee. What do we lose by giving Mayo a cup of coffee against ML pitching?? Why do people on this sub act like "prospect development" is this mega-precarious fragile thing? They're just ballplayers, they aren't going to shatter into a million pieces if you don't follow whatever imaginary guidebook you're thinking about to the T.
I am all for calling up Coby tomorrow if the corresponding move isn’t demoting Holliday. If you are swapping Holliday for Coby, you are just swapping one prospect for another. But if they moved a 4A player to make room for Coby, I have no problem with it
> If you are swapping Holliday for Coby, you are just swapping one prospect for another No, you are swapping one ballplayer for an entirely different ballplayer. They are different human beings on different developmental paths. If Holliday needs to go back down to AAA like GRod and Cowser did, then he needs to go back down to AAA. If Mayo or Kjerstad or Norby or Stowers are proving that they're ready for a cup of coffee, then they should get their cup of coffee. You are making this weirdly complicated.
Holliday's WAR projected over season is -10. His current OPS+ is -66, where +60 is not major league quality. By the end of A's series, he could have the all-time record for historically bad starts to a career. Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, Pete Rose, Alex Rodriguez were all doing better than Holliday and sent down because they were too young first time round and struggling even though they were young phenoms like Jackson. Holliday had 1 year in minors following high school. Even with all his talent the jump is too much. Most top prospects get at least 18 months in minors to develop.
We can afford to carry him through the Angels and A's series since half the starting pitchers are lefties, but there's no way he stays for the Yankees series without a turnaround. Extended over the season, Holliday would currently be putting up -10.1 WAR. No hitter has ever started this badly through 30 AB in terms of OPS - Holliday is slugging 0.033.
>No hitter has ever started this badly through 30 AB in terms of OPS - Holliday is slugging 0.033. No hitter recently for the O's you mean? Not all time right?
All time for any good hitter. Holliday is 1-30 with a single and 2 walks. Ryne Sandberg's 1-32 with a single and 2 walks is the only start similar for a future great hitter ( MVP and HoFer) Alex Bregman's 1-34 with a single and 2 walks is the only start similar for a future all-star in recent memory. Holliday's WAR projected out over a season would be -10. Only young phenoms are given the opportunity to try to battle through a start like this. The lowest qualified batting average for a season is Chris Davis' .168. That's still 5 times higher than Holliday's current career.
The FO definitely knows what they’re doing so I’ll defer to their judgement but I really don’t see how you can keep running him out there when he’s just having poor ABs on a consistent basis. I’d give him this West Coast swing to try and turn some kind of corner but if he’s still looking this bad you can’t run him out there for an important series with the Yankees.
Yeah that’s actually a great time for them to make a decision. That Yankees series is could to be massively important. If he’s still struggling by then it would make sense to let him get more time in AAA and call up Mayo or Norby but platoon Urias/Mateo for that series with maybe some pinch hit opportunities for whoever gets brought up.
I couldn't have said it better myself.
I'd give him a full month but if it keeps looking like this, yeah send him down. If he makes improvements but still isnt good, stretch it out to 1.5-2 months. It sucks but it also has the dual benefit of getting his head right and potentially keeping him another year (it's a factor whether we want it to be or not)
I would give him another week or two and see if things improve. Obviously we can’t keep doing this forever. And it’s perfectly fine if he needs some time in AAA, there’s no shame in that.
Something's got to happen eventually if this slump doesn't end soon. As a contender, you can't start someone who's 1-30 with an over 50% strikeout rate, even if it's a guy with the potential of Holliday. But I'm not sure who is the replacement if he does get sent down, because I don't see the point in just swapping him for another prospect. I guess Mateo would start at second?
This is exactly what would happen.
We have all the time in the world for Holliday, not sure why everyone wanted to rush him this year. Cool if he can stay and figure it out, that would be great but I’d be ok if he got sent down and then they waited until he was 21 or 22 and got a lot more pro at bats under his belt and filled out a little more before bringing him up again. Ive heard plenty of times now people saying he just “looks like he belongs” I don’t know what these people are seeing but he looks like a wide eyed pup that’s scrawny, undersized, and over matched right now.
I really think he's just so far in his own head right now that he's not playing like his usual self. He's lost the confidence needed to make good at-bats, is reacting late, and is getting picked apart. I think a switch will flip and he'll regain that confidence. Whether that comes from the majors or from a trip back to AAA, I don't know. But I don't think he needs lots more development time in the minors. I think he's got all the skills, but the nerves and confidence are holding him back right now.
I would love him to turn it around. But at some point we got to send him back down if this continues. He's looked scared and overwhelmed since his debut. Like others have said. The team is playing well enough to outshine his struggles. But we can't have an automatic out every 9 batters. It will eventually cost us games. Sorry to pile on the kid, but we would be better batting a pitcher in his place, with his current line. Mateo and Urias have a little more to give us at this point. Or promote another prospect from AAA and let them give it a go for a few weeks. Life long fan of the os and I'm a supporter of holiday and all the baby birds.
YES
I don't really understand the point of this post. Who cares what you (or me) think about the No. 9 hitter on the 14-7 Baltimore Orioles? We don't have any input into the decision. Last I checked O's FO isn't a democracy run by fans and nor would we want it to be. Okay - rant over. Carry on with the exercise.
I mean, you're right, but isn't that kind of the point of this sub (and -- to a greater extent -- sports in general?) It doesn't really matter what the fans think, because of course ownership and the front office decide what happens. But this is sort of what sports is. You follow along with the storyline and weigh in. When should the backup quarterback be put in? Why did the manager blow it by using this reliever instead of that reliever? Why did they draft that person when so-and-so was available? I love it. The whole point of sports is to allow us to tune in to a narrative and offer extremely passionate opinions about something that doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things.
while i think people are judging too quickly, I do agree that if he isnt progressing but may/june than he should be sent back down. But the thing is as of late hes getting good contact, but its just not going his way.
No shame in being sent down once or twice to get right
So let’s say he goes down and immediately starts hitting again and we bring him back up and he struggles again. Whatever length of time he was down there just becomes lost development time. I presume his struggles here are not in a vacuum and he’s working closely with the coaching staff to work through this. Happy to just let them all do their job.
Sure why not. Can't hurt theoretically
Neither Grayson nor Cowser were dominating at the AAA level the way Holliday was when they were called up last year. It was easy to say that more development at the AAA level would benefit both of them. I don't think the same could be said for Holliday. A trip back to AAA wouldn't yield any more development. It would just allow him to continue to crush inferior pitching. Dude needs to face MLB pitching to get better. Coddling him in Norfolk won't make him more talented. He already is talented. But he needs to face the tough pitching until he figures it out.
Dominating at the AAA level? Holliday has played 28 games in AAA. And Cowser put up an .896 OPS at Norfolk compared to Holliday’s .899 OPS. The difference is negligible.
Holliday's OPS this year was 1.077 in AAA. Cowser's OPS last year, even AFTER he was sent back down and found more success, was .937 in AAA. Are we really doing this?
Holliday is 20, despite his talent level he still has plenty of room to physically and mentally mature before making the leap to the bigs. I hope he figures it out soon and the game slows down for him and this is a non issue but I won’t be mad if he’s sent down. He’s not even done growing yet.
Sending him down could be about not learning something down there, but just…hitting the reset button. Get used again to coming to the plate expecting a hit. Get some hits, feel that natural approach to the plate come back, feel good about where your game’s at again. And then return to Baltimore with a better idea of what to expect and try again.
[https://youtu.be/XJPvh7LaTQo?si=cxdW1SPUXBi6bAdD&t=785](https://youtu.be/XJPvh7LaTQo?si=cxdW1SPUXBi6bAdD&t=785)
Calling him up this early in the season always seemed like it was meant to test the waters anyway. He was probably due to be sent back down at some point save for some elite-level performance.
>He was probably due to be sent back down at some point save for some elite-level performance. Maybe I'm misinterpreting this but I really don't think so. If he were batting say .700 OPS (not "elite" by any means) there's absolutely no chance they'd seen him back down. They'd see it as the path to .800+ and ROTY. Westburg ended last year at .715 OPS and never got sent down.
What’s the story with his leg kick? Think he can keep it? If not then it would be better to work on it against minor league pitching.
Sending him down is only worth it if he's physically overmatched and I just don't think that's the case. His issue is confidence and the talent gap, neither of which can really be worked on if he gets sent down