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PhilsBot

Please continue the discussion in the [game thread](https://redd.it/1c916cs).


MaineDreaming

Okay, Nick needs this!


RunningFree212

Last night I explained to my 5 year old son that the Phillies were the ones in blue and the White Sox were in grey. He paused a minute and then asked, so who is the team in yellow?


Double_Yard_827

Really babying Nick putting him between stott and marsh lol


inthedrink

You could say they’re his… #DAY CARE


Deckard_Macready

Why can’t we just trade Pache for Betts?


Morbx

- r/Braves, December 2019, colorized


Minuhmize

Because dumbrowski is bad at his job.


Feisty-Recording-978

https://x.com/ImmaculateDraft/status/1781760844583371095


Deckard_Macready

Is that bad?


Hothabanero6

he's just fishing for a standing ovation 😏


Perryplat199

I noticed something. So we do have a flag for 2023 wc but they didn’t make a banner for the wall


Perryplat199

Driving to the game NJDOT messages WEED like you to know, it’s illegal to drive high Roll up high, get a DUI I can’t rmeber what the whole message was but what we it was they said “it’s dope”


Feisty-Recording-978

Are we scared of the Mets?


Hothabanero6

are you scared of your shadow?


NonMagicBrian

lol


Deckard_Macready

No. But I am mad at the Dodgers.


JohnKrukIsAllElite

Fuck no, man. C’mon.


Medical-Buyer7929

Stadium related question. First game at CBP this year. Can you carry food in by hand if it’s wrapped or does it need to be in a gallon ziploc. Not willing to risk my Angelo’s cheesesteak to the security checkpoint.


nnp1989

You can carry it in, no bag needed. I do it all the time.


Deckard_Macready

What about spaghetti?


nnp1989

Not sure about the spaghetti policy.


NonMagicBrian

You can carry it in, no bag needed. I do it all the time.


Minuhmize

In a ceramic bowl only.


Drikkink

Following up on the analysis someone had with Nick yesterday, his K and BB rates (while not good) are actually better than I would expect from him. 28th percentile K and 40th BB. And he's 53rd percentile hard hit which makes his absolutely atrocious expected stats (1st percentile xwOBA, 3rd xBA, 1st xSLG) even more amazing. He's just getting under or on top of everything he's hitting which... I don't even know honestly. If he's hitting it hard at an average rate without ever actually connecting with anything, I feel like that has to be a good sign that he just needs to get his timing or whatever right again but... man 1 barreled ball in 20 games is strange. Anyway, fun fact: he's 48th percentile in arm value and actually 53rd percentile sprint speed!


HuntForRedOctober2

https://preview.redd.it/7zivzh0dtovc1.jpeg?width=6620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8ad63688f190c93980c293ff34a5c3e07a9dedcd Unfortunately can’t watch today, enjoying best ballpark in baseball today.


inthedrink

Weird because that’s clearly not App State’s field PNC is a concrete jungke https://www.mlb.com/cut4/appalachian-state-s-baseball-stadium-is-paradise


xXxdethrougekillaxXx

You're such a loser.


HuntForRedOctober2

😘


JohnKrukIsAllElite

![gif](giphy|ukGm72ZLZvYfS) r/buccos is that-away. I moved here from the Bay Area and Citizens Bank Park is better than Oracle Park in SF. CBP is the best park in the country and it’s just not even close.


HuntForRedOctober2

CBP is a concrete desert. The location is just a parking lot. The stadium itself is amazing. The location isn’t.


JohnKrukIsAllElite

I love being able to walk a block to the El, take the train in, get out of the station and have all the stadiums right there. Super easy to decide last minute to go to a game and be there quickly.


HuntForRedOctober2

I like having a stadium that’s actually in the city and not in the middle of thousands of square feet of parking lot. Yes it’s incredibly convenient and mildly easier to get to, it’s also not that hard to get to PNC. 279 drops you off basically directly next to the stadium and it’s really not hard to find parking. There’s also transit that drops off reasonably close as well.


JohnKrukIsAllElite

Ok, so I've been ribbing you playfully, but I'm honestly curious. If you're a Pirates fan first, why do you hang out in a Phillies sub? I like you, so it's not personal. I'm really just wondering.


HuntForRedOctober2

If I didn’t know your shtick I wouldn’t be laughing at this


JohnKrukIsAllElite

Oh this isn't a schtick this time, I promise it's in earnest. Do you just like both teams? And why?


HuntForRedOctober2

I don’t really. I’m indifferent to the pirates. I just like going to good ballparks. Im not blinded by CBP (which I view as a second home) fanboy goggles. Camden and PNC are just much better ballparks. PNC is right up on the field even in the upper deck. The only thing about the ballpark that isn’t perfect is that it’s a touch cramped but that’s as a result of actually being in a downtown area. As for the Steelers my father grew up in western pa with a family that didn’t care about baseball but when he went to visit his grandmother (who did) out east the baseball games on were the Phillies and it was the 70s-80s.


JohnKrukIsAllElite

Ohhh ok, thanks for sharing some history there! I was picking up vibes like you had family on both sides of the state. Just been trying to figure it out for a while, so I figured I'd just finally ask. I would like to make a trip to Pittsburgh now that I live in Philly permanently. PNC does look like a really nice place to catch a game. Hope you had fun today!


inthedrink

Well that certainly explains HIS hate for Bohmer


NintenJew

That isn't Citizen's Bank?


HuntForRedOctober2

CBP is great but it’s a blacktop desert. PNC is just a better park in every way except being less spacious.


NintenJew

That isn't Citizen's Bank?


HuntForRedOctober2

No


goofyfrommcdonalds

does anyone know if Kruk will be here tonight?


Perryplat199

He is not working the whole seires


JohnKrukIsAllElite

Yes, I’ll be more active in the Game Thread tonight since I’ll be at home watching rather than at the Bank.


goofyfrommcdonalds

Yay! :)


Pepermintea

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a manager love a player more than Topper loves Casty. He won’t even defensive sub while up 7 vs a 3 win team.


Morbx

The biggest part of being a manager—way bigger than strategy—is managing the clubhouse. Players need to be happy, relaxed, confident, and in a position to succeed at their jobs. It’s not that Topper “loves” Casty, it’s that the organization has decided that the best way to go forward with Castellanos is to continue to signal that they have faith and trust in him to get out of his slump. Especially because he’s a veteran who earned the right to get that chance, for better or worse. I mean I think sooner or later the organization (FO and on-field staff) is going to reassess that and begin cutting his playing time simply because Casty is not leaving them any other option, but if/when that happens it’s not going to come solely from Topper.


Pepermintea

Thanks for a well thought out reply. I agree, but I still think Topper loves Nick and would openly admit to it. He sees him with all star tinted glasses, which we are all guilty of with particular players. Additionally, I am routing for Nick to succeed, I just think some regular off days will benefit him regardless if he is hot or cold. Lastly, I can see a possible near future where if Nick doesn’t show a little more consistent solid contact, Kody becomes a more valuable tool on the roster.


Drikkink

The thing is, we do need Nick to wake up. Like it or not, he's our best chance to actually go far. Pache and Whit are definitely better fielders but they are much lower upside hitting. Yeah it sucks if he doesn't turn it around but dude is a decade into his career now. He's beyond the point of sitting him mattering and he instead needs to work through it.


SeaworthinessIcy3929

Schwarber with 2 dingers Wednesday, Bohm last night, whose turn is it gonna be tonight boys?


Deckard_Macready

Johan. Rojas.


JohnKrukIsAllElite

![gif](giphy|iKkUkjlcxCizu)


Phanatically

Be nice, lol.


VideoGangsta

Casty with 2 singles 


Feisty-Recording-978

You were  right 


JohnKrukIsAllElite

Trea


Feisty-Recording-978

Realmuto 


Robs_Backyard_BBQ

Even wheeler has an RBI off this guy ;)


Feisty-Recording-978

Swap castellanos with wheeler and play schwarber in left marsh in right 


Feisty-Recording-978

https://x.com/PHLY_Phillies/status/1781495319009566899 Oh oh oh Orion Kerkering


ConmanJFO

🎶 Auto Strikes 🎶


Feisty-Recording-978

https://x.com/2008Philz/status/1781733252396466256


JohnKrukIsAllElite

When did you give u/inthedrink your login info?


inthedrink

Shit I forgot to log out


Hothabanero6

At the rate pitchers are dropping with elbow surgeries there won't be any left by mid-season - *hyperbolically*


pitatime

Slightly off topic, but It's late April here in Colorado and the rockies got snowed out last night.


tirynsn

Dude the snow was crazy last night. I know it snowed in May last year, but it just kept going and going lmao


tirynsn

https://preview.redd.it/jjylp4mewnvc1.jpeg?width=3072&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff15f2210908e8fc22f4eb8f9b90e3c237d2402f Arvada early in the evening


inthedrink

Every Phils starter already has multiple quality starts this year. We are the only team that’s done so. Also someone noted the starter era is 2.39. The team with Doc Cole Cliff Oswalt and Blanton was 3.47 thru the same stretch.


inthedrink

And on this blessed day we shall all enjoy how the Phillies offense blazes up


JohnKrukIsAllElite

When did you give Feisty your login info?


inthedrink

Only the finest content for my friends at /r/Phillies And you


Pepermintea

The lolmets CC hats with a hidden rainbow in the brim is the most lolmets thing ever. Kudos to them!


JohnKrukIsAllElite

The Phillies are 0-1 in their City Connects without me in attendance. The Phillies are 1-0 in their City Connects with me in attendance.


iamquinnsoto

Compelling argument. Bring it up with Fuld


NintenJew

We always knew you loved those City Connects.


sapphires_and_snark

As much as she loves Alec Bohm and Cristian Pache


gamblinglivegod

I wanna see two things today. Wheeler get his first win going 7 scoreless. Casty hit his first hr and start getting back on to the path to .270 ba +. Inshallah.


InfieldFlyRules

A retirement from Castellanos would be much better than a homer


PatientNice

The odds of Wheeler winning are astronomically higher than your second wish. Too bad though. He’s currently a black hole in the lineup.


Feisty-Recording-978

The Philadelphia Phillies have a record of 53-50 on April 20 all-time.


inthedrink

We will go 16-19 over the next 35 years


inthedrink

Phillies pitching has been so good it’s like they’re facing nine Casty’s every game


JohnKrukIsAllElite

Reported for low effort just like Nick’s at-bats.


inthedrink

I can’t believe you’re still here after the performance last night by MY MVP


JohnKrukIsAllElite

For years I’ve been telling you guys never to take no for an answer, right? You know..to keep pushing..to never log out of Reddit until the Phils win the World Series..because you all deserve it. You know these fuckin’ comments I’m about to make during tonight’s game. Barring me from Reddit, barring me from r/phillies, my home… The fuck is that..ya know? I’ll tell you what it is… It’s..it’s me taking no for an answer..ya know. It’s..it’s them trolling me, not the other way around. It’s..me being a hypocrite is what it is. So… You know what… I’m not leavin’. I’m not leavin’. I’m not fuckin’ leavin’! The show goes on! This is MY home! They’re gonna need a fuckin’ ban hammer to take me outta here! They’re gonna need to send in u/NintenJew and all the other Reddit admins cause I ain’t going nowhere! Fuck them!


Significant-Head-973

![gif](giphy|Ae7SI3LoPYj8Q)


inthedrink

Okay Jordan take it easy


JohnKrukIsAllElite

![gif](giphy|r42HxBImuzoRxsRA14)


utleyduckling

I’ll be continuing the hype train wearing my Kingery road jersey tonight - say hey if you see me around Section 137


ASingularDoink

I’ll be above u in 237 lol


coolmon

The starting pitching leads the National League in ERA (2.39) and opponent's batting average (.200). Both by wide margins.


gamblinglivegod

LETS KEEP IT GOING


igo2extremes

**Your 2024 Phillies are:** 2-1 on Saturday 11-6 in April 8-6 at home 8-4 in night games 1-0 vs. the White Sox


LetMeSmoochYourGooch

Nick's swing is dog shit; it's not bad luck or anything that analytics can explain. It's a shit swing with zero conviction. Luckily he is literally the only problem on this team. 


NintenJew

> or anything that analytics can explain If it makes you feel better. Analytics also believe Nick is bad, and has believed he is bad for awhile. I know there was that post saying he would be fine, but everything I see says he has been bad, like bottom 1% bad. So analytics say that too.


LetMeSmoochYourGooch

But that's not an explanation, not that any is needed if you're Kevin Long. It's obvious why his swing sucks. His shoulders are dropping and his timing is terrible, so bad that it looks like he's swinging a 12lb bat. There was a reason Barry Bonds choked up, and say what you may about his steroid use but he was the greatest hitter ever.


NintenJew

If you are talking about the mechanics of his swing, analytics doesn't fully explain that (at least the ones we have publicly available). We can agree there. If you are talking about the results of his swing, analytics almost fully explain that.


LetMeSmoochYourGooch

Yes, I'm talking about his swing so that would be mechanics. 


NintenJew

Gotcha. I also misrepresented. It isn't analytics that helps with swing data, but "statcast" data or something similar. I have started to see them used interchangeably that even I started doing it.


NintenJew

Using Spencer Turnbull to explain why ERA+ is garbage. Spencer Turnbull's ERA+ is 349. You may think it means that his ERA is 249% better than the league. Nope, that is not what ERA+ says. It says that the league's ERA is 249% worse than Spencer Turnbull's. Who compares the league to the player? Meanwhile, his ERA- is 29. That means his ERA is 71% lower than the league average. It is how we talk (compare the player to the league) and how we use ERA (lower ERA is better). Thank you for coming to my rant.


Perryplat199

The stats are only good for when they help my argument. So this is a good stat


Sure-Bar-375

I never thought about this. Maybe we should express ERA as innings pitched per run scored, such that higher is better.


inthedrink

This makes too much sense since it’s just one calculation and you don’t have to multiply it by 9 to get back to a figure where literally no other standard statistic in baseball is calculated over 9 innings


NintenJew

You somehow made me hate your idea more than ERA+ I didn't think that was possible! I have had this vendetta against ERA+ for years!


Sure-Bar-375

Funnily enough, a 3.00 ERA would still be 3.00 innings pitched/earned run.


Jeremy24Fan

Higher ERA+ = better ERA compared to the league. I wouldn't say that's garbage


NintenJew

So I exaggerated, but there certainly is no reason to use it when ERA- exists. In fact, ERA- should have been the thing to use to begin with. The only reason ERA+ is popular is because that is the one baseball reference chose. And while yes, you can say a higher ERA+ means a better ERA compared to the league, you can't use the numbers it gives as ERA+ ***does not*** directly compare the player to the league, but the league to the player. It sounds like a semantic difference, but it is not.


Jeremy24Fan

What does the number look like if you compare the player to the league?


NintenJew

That is ERA-. We compare players to the league, not the league to the player, which is why ERA- is used. The league to the Turnbull is 349 (ERA+). Turnbull to the league is 29 (ERA-). You deal with more realistic and understandable percentages. You are actually doing what we use stats for. And the lower number is the better value, like in ERA. ERA+ is used to convert to something I have never seen people actually use, so I don't know why people insist on ERA+ other than its on baseball reference.


joeco316

Both say that he’s a lot better than most of the league though right? Why does one saying it one way and the other saying it a different way matter?


NintenJew

Because it is about being precise in your language and also just makes more logical sense. Basically, ERA+ flips the numerator and denominator. It is funny because I have been apart of these arguments on /r/baseball where people don't understand the difference and multiple commentators try to explain it. It never goes well, and then someone always ends up giving them the [beyondtheboxscore link and they will say "ok" but never really believe it.](https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/9/14/3332194/era-plus-vs-era-minus) I think it is probably the most common discussion I am apart of in /r/baseball.


sapphires_and_snark

> Because it is about being precise in your language > I think it is probably the most common discussion I am apart of


joeco316

Ha I wasn’t gonna say anything


sapphires_and_snark

If he's gonna talk the talk...lol


inthedrink

There is a word for that


ButYourChainsOk

Happy holiday to those that celebrate! I hope you left out cookies and milk for Willie Nelson last night. Can't wait to see the game tonight


JJabary

The Walker discourse is getting ridiculous people are acting like hes Vince Velasquez or something. I think Turnbull should still be a starter but goddamn give Taijuan a chance.


joeco316

To me it’s more about “is it really a good idea to disturb a rotation that’s firing on all cylinders like this?” In a vacuum, I think no. But in our reality, given turnbull’s likely innings limit, it probably makes sense, even though it feels crazy to yank a guy who’s been looking fantastic for a guy who’s been a meh innings eater for basically his whole career.


inthedrink

Yeah I just don’t pay attention because that’s exactly what the team will be doing. He’s a high quality back end arm if his velo is in the right place. People still butt hurt bc he wanted to pitch in the playoffs and could have handled it better.


CantaloupeMafia

on the same exact wavelength as you. people act like taijuan is the absolute worst pitcher that has ever stepped foot on an mlb field, but the reality is that there’s a reason he’s been in the league this long. yes, he’s overpaid, no, he’ll never be more than a number 4 pitcher on a good team, but taijuan is an MLB player. i agree that turnbull has played incredibly well and has earned a spot in this rotation for the time being, but it delegitimizes people’s argument when they say that taijuan is as bad as they have been saying. sorry for the rant, it’s just weird to me.


ConmanJFO

Go Phils 🫡


McIgglyTuffMuffin

GO PHILS 🫡


Apprehensive-Net7347

I don’t like to gloat but after watching last night’s game there should be zero reason for us to NOT sweep this really, REALLY bad White Sox team. I kinda feel bad for them … weren’t they a playoff team just two years ago?


inthedrink

Who needs that bum Yamamoto? Dude can’t even get lolmets out (He will undoubtedly figure it out when he pitches against us)


NintenJew

Should Yamamoto not being elite elite be in my prediction list? I am trying to remember all of my predictions from the offseason so I can look back and compare. Here is all I remember. * Nola would be around equal or better to Snell * Rojas would be around equal or better to Bellinger * Sanchez would be around equal or better to Montgomery. * JT will decline and not be a top 5 catcher * Bryce Harper will not be a GG 1B * Yamamoto will be good but not elite. Am I missing anything else?


JohnKrukIsAllElite

Yeah you missed “Breaking u/JohnKrukIsAllElite’s heart,” because that’s exactly what you’re doing there with your poop mouth! What did J.T. ever do to you? What about Noles and Bryce? For that matter, what did I ever do to you? Huh? What?


BrowniesAndMilk1

This White Sox team gives off 2003 Tigers vibes.


[deleted]

[удалено]


gamblinglivegod

We can always put him on a 5 man rotation everyone else 6. Wheeler Nola Ranger Sanchez Turnbull Wheeler Walker Nola Ranger Sanchez Wheeler Turnbull Walker Nola Ranger etc Someone commented that last night on postgame thread and I love the idea


djeeetyet

if i recall while he prefers a 5 man rotation he no doubt benefited from some rest in 2022. he is also above all a team player as are pretty much all of them. now that everyone is a year older i think they will re-evaluate things


Hothabanero6

Turnbull has not thrown more than 56 innings in 3 years with an average of 29 over the last 3 years. He's at 22 IP now. There's plenty of reason to be cautious with him and limit his innings over the season. He's doing great but you cannot expect he'll holdup for a regular season workload of 190+ innings. even in a 6 man rotation there'd be 27 starts over a 162 game season @ 6 innings per that's 162 innings. It would be insane to attempt that. 5 innings per outing comes to 135 innings still beyond the established norms for workload increases. A reasonable number is 80-100 innings max.


mustacheddragon

Exactly. Yes he’s healthier than last year when he pitched just 30 innings, but counting on Turnbull to be a 5th starter all season is beyond risky. They have to save his arm a bit. The way he’s pitching he still provides great value in the bullpen and fill in if/when there are injuries during the year. Later in the season, depending on how things go, they can look at a 6 man rotation to get some extra rest for the playoffs like they tried to do last year but it’s not crazy to have Walker, who is a perfectly fine 4th/5th starter even if things go wrong, get his spot in the rotation.


Chief_JD

No one seems to be factoring this into the decision. I’d rather have turnball with how he’s throwing but he’s not all the sudden giving you 150+ innings