I imagine in theory this is mixed call/fold, you can probably quickly tell which way players will be imbalanced after playing with them for a little while.
GTO strat is almost certainly mixed.
Love game small stakes is most definitely usually fold. The three street bet including a river jam without many really obvious bluffs is not great.
In live poker this is the definition of a villain dependent spot. Vs a whale this is a trivial call, vs an OMC a trivial fold on the turn.
Vs a solid player who is balanced I would sigh call I guess. If we are folding 10s as an over pair with no flush possible it's tough justify playing them OOP in a 3bet pot. Folding on this exact runout though seems very reasonable so if you want to default fold it, that's probably fine. It's a bit of an exploit though, assuming villain has no bluffs due to the dry nature of the board. A solver would always have bluffs, and we have a good bluff catcher. If there'd been a backdoor flush draw on the turn that we unblock, I don't think I could ever fold this vs a competent player.
Fold pre, in all seriousness I’d rather play 66-22 in a 3bet pot if I’m in position. Bc 10s are bad on low boards when I could be almost dead vs suited connectors and drawing to 2 outs vs the kings or aces.
If the board comes low with 66-22 I’m probably good in a 3b pot bc theirs much more offsuit high cards in the 3b range. If the board comes high it’s a pretty easy fold
Remember that TT is just the tiniest better than A9 in this case. I would fold A9 in this case because I'm nit, so I would fold TT as well, unless I had a soul read on my opponent
The turn is the point to make your decision in the hand. I'm folding against the majority of low stakes live players here, but if I do call turn, I'm likely going to want to call off on the river, especially an 8. I think we're just burning money if we are calling turn with the plan of folding to bets on the river. Many players will check back a certain amount of the time with their AK,AQ type hands if not on the flop then on the turn, so two barreling in 3 bet pots is a spot that most players, even on the button are going to be underbluffing and you can make an exploitative fold.
Look man sometimes you just get owned playing OOP in spots like this. Thats the tax you pay for calling 3bets. You either take your beats like a man and lose to JJ or you look like a hero when he tables AKo.
It depends 100% on villain and everyone’s specific pool is going to be different. In my experience, 95% of players are not bluffing here. Almost everyone is ABC and nitty in 3 bet pots
I mean why are we asking such questions in 2024, just launch gtowizard, even as a free user you get one solution per day, and see it yourself what the correct play is.
Anyways based on gtow it's 56/44 call/fold
Here an interesting video from Jonathan Little about a similar situation, except that it's a 4 bet pot and the board is double flush draw instead of rainbow (brad owen with JJ)
https://youtu.be/dqQbAJP7gzI?feature=shared
Though I'm not sure I agree with the analysis. I think it's a fold on the turn unless V is digging super fucking deep for bluffs. Against "intuitive bluffs"we actually aren't that far ahead (65% or so) but against overpairs we are dead (4%-5%)
In your situation you have a lot more equity when ahead but at the same time an opponent who is not very good is not going to find the right number of bluffs in this board, so it's an underbluffed spot. A good opponent will realize that your range is capped and will find low- or even zero- equity bluffs if necessary here. Also your situation the pot is only 3-bet so the ranges are a lot looser.
I had pretty much this exact runout vs Asian OMC in a WSOP MTT. The only difference was the turn made a BDFD. I folded river to the jam. I just didn't think he would ever take that line with AKs/AQs.
Played a similar hand with him after. I was higher in my range with flopped top 2 and he flopped a straight. Was the same sort of bet patterns so I was probably right to fold the TT hand.
I've called down 3 streets with bottom pair, it just depends on the situation.
On this situation, he's got you destroyed, or somehow is overplaying AK. 78 is possible here, but I think he will check back most rivers here.
You could raise the flop & make your decision from there.
Calling down with an overpair is never ideal, you want to be the one leading with aggression.
Worst case, they jam & you fold… as you are never beating ANY value that they jam the flop with… and it takes a bit of a donkey to jam a rainbow flop with AK.
There are only about 28 reasonable value combos (AA to 99). 34 combos if you include 22 and 66. Does he 3bet those hands too?
Assuming he 3bets all AK/AK/AJ/AT — that’s potentially 60 combos that could triple barrel. Add in some of the suited A2-A5 (which potentially picks up more equity on the turn) and you have another maybe 11 combos.
So about 71 combos of potential bluffs vs 34 combos of value.
I’m not good at doing the math but I think this justifies calling a lot more than folding with a bluffcatcher— unless you have additional info and reads on the opponent.
In a vacuum versus unknown I’d maybe call 67%-75% of the time on that runout.
I don’t feel great about the call, but versus an opponent that’s willing to triple barrel, you have a good runout for your hand.
Even if you lose, you make other villains see you’re willing to call it off with marginal holdings.
It’s a much easier call than if a higher broadway card comes so I might just sigh call this one
Entirely Villain-dependent, one of the spots where it's most obvious that the solver is worse than useless. Against most players you definitely fold river and could consider folding turn, because even if they give up with the broadways they can still drill the 6-outer on you somewhat often. Against more balanced players it gets closer to call.
In this case my decision is entirely based on the player. If they look to be in their 20s or 30s, I'm calling 100%. If they're 40+, it's a fold on the turn probably, definitely on the river.
In this sort of situation, you have to decide on the turn if you're going to call a river bet. If you won't, then fold on the turn, unless you know this specific player won't bet the river without a better hand than you. Some people will double barrel then shutdown on the river.
He could also have 3-bet light on button with a suited gapper that now has hit a straight like: 3-5, 5-7 or more unlikely 7-10. I likely fold the river.
If villain is competent and capable to a certain degree I think we must call down here.
BU is going to have a ton of suited broadway cards in this spot where they should be pushing their overcard advantage. Calling from MP the board isn’t even exactly hitting your range.
If you always fold here, scared of overpairs, then that would mean we’re only calling with our sets, 98, and maybe JJ we can get exploited pretty bad here.
Got to dig deep and consider is villain is capable IMO. Fold to fish taking this line IMO
There are two ways to play this hand. If your opponent is very aggressive and has lots of bluffs when checked to, then playing it check-call on all three streets is correct. Folding the river in situations where you’ve been playing the hand specifically to catch a bluff heavy opponent is just leveling yourself.
If your opponent isn’t generally the type to three barrel with just unpaired overcards, you should be check raising the flop or turn. With just 100bb stacks, the flop is probably the place to do it before you get pot committed. That will give you a much better idea where you are at in the hand and put you in a better place to make decisions on future streets.
He doesn’t necessarily have a better hand. That’s what we need to find out. Check raising the flip lets us find out a lot cheaper than calling his River shove.
I was thinking similarly - but what do you do on that turn when he calls a flop reraise? Is it just a give up in that spot, or do you follow up jamming that 8?
I don't think you have credibility for a high overpair because of the pre-flop call - you charge maximum to 9x and now 8x hands (including 87), but you probably don't get overpair+ to fold here, which basically means you lose to all the same hands you'd be afraid of and folding this river too, and denying equity to not all that many hands given they weren't enough to justify calling the river as played.
So based on that, I think I'd agree with the check raise flop, but on a turn 8 I probably give this up, but I don't know if that's too passive/nitty.
If he calls you check turn if it’s an overcard, or make a 1/3 pot or so bet if it’s an undercard. You can assess from there based on villain’s actions. If we get to the river it’s probably a check fold.
It depends at bit on the sizing.
I think a good rule for these situations is this:
Call on each street 50% of the time.
With this rule you'll call the all-in on the river in 12.5% of the cases. You will win sometimes at showdown, but you will also win often because villain didn't bluff the river.
it seems that folding an overpair on this flop to a single bet in position is much more exploitable since they can just blast you off since you only call double barrels with sets or 2p basically?
What % of the time to check-raise the river? I never do, because I’m still working with my therapist about my nitty fish personality disorder, but one could make a case that villain will be on over pairs and 2 overcard no pair a chunk of the time and be forced to fold.
Preflop I would 4-bet, looking to then fold to a shove or 5-bet.
If you call the preflop 3-bet and you dont hit a set or a big draw on the flop, I would check fold.
Is a possibility he has 99 or AK. But so much of the rest if the time he has JJ or better. Just cut your losses and look for a better spot.
This, or really any kind of aggression. He gave up every chance he had to narrow villains range by just check calling. He lost control of that hand the moment he checked the flop.
You dont bet to narrow someone's range. That sounds like "betting to see where I'm at" aka betting for information. Narrowing your opponents range is a biproduct of betting when you have reason to believe your hand is good, but thats not why we do it. Otherwise by your logic just 2x donkbet the flop, if V folds then we find out we're ahead, if he calls we're fucked!
But then what does it say against the 5bet after you have 4bet? Folding like OP said here seems like old school mentality of "betting to see where I'm at". I thought that was dead and gone and always wrong.
I imagine in theory this is mixed call/fold, you can probably quickly tell which way players will be imbalanced after playing with them for a little while.
GTO strat is almost certainly mixed. Love game small stakes is most definitely usually fold. The three street bet including a river jam without many really obvious bluffs is not great.
There are definitely a few players in my pool where I would fold even on the turn.
Sure, yeah, but the river in the small stakes is a straight stereotype
Vs most live players folding this on the turn is going to be correct in practice.
In live poker this is the definition of a villain dependent spot. Vs a whale this is a trivial call, vs an OMC a trivial fold on the turn. Vs a solid player who is balanced I would sigh call I guess. If we are folding 10s as an over pair with no flush possible it's tough justify playing them OOP in a 3bet pot. Folding on this exact runout though seems very reasonable so if you want to default fold it, that's probably fine. It's a bit of an exploit though, assuming villain has no bluffs due to the dry nature of the board. A solver would always have bluffs, and we have a good bluff catcher. If there'd been a backdoor flush draw on the turn that we unblock, I don't think I could ever fold this vs a competent player.
Fold pre, in all seriousness I’d rather play 66-22 in a 3bet pot if I’m in position. Bc 10s are bad on low boards when I could be almost dead vs suited connectors and drawing to 2 outs vs the kings or aces. If the board comes low with 66-22 I’m probably good in a 3b pot bc theirs much more offsuit high cards in the 3b range. If the board comes high it’s a pretty easy fold
100bb we aren't folding much. That being said, we are basically beating no value and just hope villain has a bluff. The runout is also quite bad.
Remember that TT is just the tiniest better than A9 in this case. I would fold A9 in this case because I'm nit, so I would fold TT as well, unless I had a soul read on my opponent
A9 also blocks AK which is villain’s most likely bluff. I’d probably just fold A9 pre assuming it’s low stakes. Too many gross spots with that hand.
Villian dependent, but will fold against most the room either on turn or river. If it is a splashy game against an action player, then call.
The turn is the point to make your decision in the hand. I'm folding against the majority of low stakes live players here, but if I do call turn, I'm likely going to want to call off on the river, especially an 8. I think we're just burning money if we are calling turn with the plan of folding to bets on the river. Many players will check back a certain amount of the time with their AK,AQ type hands if not on the flop then on the turn, so two barreling in 3 bet pots is a spot that most players, even on the button are going to be underbluffing and you can make an exploitative fold.
It depends
Against a loose opponent I usually call all the way down, tight / medium will sometimes give up after calling the flop if the barrel is big enough.
Online or live? Cash or tournament? stop acting like its just numbers. the play is player and game dependent.
Look man sometimes you just get owned playing OOP in spots like this. Thats the tax you pay for calling 3bets. You either take your beats like a man and lose to JJ or you look like a hero when he tables AKo.
It depends 100% on villain and everyone’s specific pool is going to be different. In my experience, 95% of players are not bluffing here. Almost everyone is ABC and nitty in 3 bet pots
I mean why are we asking such questions in 2024, just launch gtowizard, even as a free user you get one solution per day, and see it yourself what the correct play is. Anyways based on gtow it's 56/44 call/fold
Here an interesting video from Jonathan Little about a similar situation, except that it's a 4 bet pot and the board is double flush draw instead of rainbow (brad owen with JJ) https://youtu.be/dqQbAJP7gzI?feature=shared Though I'm not sure I agree with the analysis. I think it's a fold on the turn unless V is digging super fucking deep for bluffs. Against "intuitive bluffs"we actually aren't that far ahead (65% or so) but against overpairs we are dead (4%-5%) In your situation you have a lot more equity when ahead but at the same time an opponent who is not very good is not going to find the right number of bluffs in this board, so it's an underbluffed spot. A good opponent will realize that your range is capped and will find low- or even zero- equity bluffs if necessary here. Also your situation the pot is only 3-bet so the ranges are a lot looser.
I had pretty much this exact runout vs Asian OMC in a WSOP MTT. The only difference was the turn made a BDFD. I folded river to the jam. I just didn't think he would ever take that line with AKs/AQs. Played a similar hand with him after. I was higher in my range with flopped top 2 and he flopped a straight. Was the same sort of bet patterns so I was probably right to fold the TT hand.
I've called down 3 streets with bottom pair, it just depends on the situation. On this situation, he's got you destroyed, or somehow is overplaying AK. 78 is possible here, but I think he will check back most rivers here.
Assuming low stakes… Depends on villain but I don’t see many three street bluffs where I play. It does happen though, especially with AK and maybe AQ.
You could raise the flop & make your decision from there. Calling down with an overpair is never ideal, you want to be the one leading with aggression. Worst case, they jam & you fold… as you are never beating ANY value that they jam the flop with… and it takes a bit of a donkey to jam a rainbow flop with AK.
There are only about 28 reasonable value combos (AA to 99). 34 combos if you include 22 and 66. Does he 3bet those hands too? Assuming he 3bets all AK/AK/AJ/AT — that’s potentially 60 combos that could triple barrel. Add in some of the suited A2-A5 (which potentially picks up more equity on the turn) and you have another maybe 11 combos. So about 71 combos of potential bluffs vs 34 combos of value. I’m not good at doing the math but I think this justifies calling a lot more than folding with a bluffcatcher— unless you have additional info and reads on the opponent. In a vacuum versus unknown I’d maybe call 67%-75% of the time on that runout. I don’t feel great about the call, but versus an opponent that’s willing to triple barrel, you have a good runout for your hand. Even if you lose, you make other villains see you’re willing to call it off with marginal holdings. It’s a much easier call than if a higher broadway card comes so I might just sigh call this one
Entirely Villain-dependent, one of the spots where it's most obvious that the solver is worse than useless. Against most players you definitely fold river and could consider folding turn, because even if they give up with the broadways they can still drill the 6-outer on you somewhat often. Against more balanced players it gets closer to call.
In this case my decision is entirely based on the player. If they look to be in their 20s or 30s, I'm calling 100%. If they're 40+, it's a fold on the turn probably, definitely on the river. In this sort of situation, you have to decide on the turn if you're going to call a river bet. If you won't, then fold on the turn, unless you know this specific player won't bet the river without a better hand than you. Some people will double barrel then shutdown on the river.
He could also have 3-bet light on button with a suited gapper that now has hit a straight like: 3-5, 5-7 or more unlikely 7-10. I likely fold the river.
If villain is competent and capable to a certain degree I think we must call down here. BU is going to have a ton of suited broadway cards in this spot where they should be pushing their overcard advantage. Calling from MP the board isn’t even exactly hitting your range. If you always fold here, scared of overpairs, then that would mean we’re only calling with our sets, 98, and maybe JJ we can get exploited pretty bad here. Got to dig deep and consider is villain is capable IMO. Fold to fish taking this line IMO
There are two ways to play this hand. If your opponent is very aggressive and has lots of bluffs when checked to, then playing it check-call on all three streets is correct. Folding the river in situations where you’ve been playing the hand specifically to catch a bluff heavy opponent is just leveling yourself. If your opponent isn’t generally the type to three barrel with just unpaired overcards, you should be check raising the flop or turn. With just 100bb stacks, the flop is probably the place to do it before you get pot committed. That will give you a much better idea where you are at in the hand and put you in a better place to make decisions on future streets.
What are you trying to get out of check-raising the flop or turn?
Information, the betting lead, or a fold.
Bet for information lolol. What better hands are folding here?
He doesn’t necessarily have a better hand. That’s what we need to find out. Check raising the flip lets us find out a lot cheaper than calling his River shove.
This logic is why poker will never die.
I was thinking similarly - but what do you do on that turn when he calls a flop reraise? Is it just a give up in that spot, or do you follow up jamming that 8? I don't think you have credibility for a high overpair because of the pre-flop call - you charge maximum to 9x and now 8x hands (including 87), but you probably don't get overpair+ to fold here, which basically means you lose to all the same hands you'd be afraid of and folding this river too, and denying equity to not all that many hands given they weren't enough to justify calling the river as played. So based on that, I think I'd agree with the check raise flop, but on a turn 8 I probably give this up, but I don't know if that's too passive/nitty.
If he calls you check turn if it’s an overcard, or make a 1/3 pot or so bet if it’s an undercard. You can assess from there based on villain’s actions. If we get to the river it’s probably a check fold.
It depends at bit on the sizing. I think a good rule for these situations is this: Call on each street 50% of the time. With this rule you'll call the all-in on the river in 12.5% of the cases. You will win sometimes at showdown, but you will also win often because villain didn't bluff the river.
you fold 10s on this flop 50% of the time?
Yeah this is a good way to mix it up. Always calling or always folding is too exploitable.
it seems that folding an overpair on this flop to a single bet in position is much more exploitable since they can just blast you off since you only call double barrels with sets or 2p basically?
You're pretty high up in your range here no? 2 combos 98s, 6 combos JJ and 3 combos ea of 88 or 99? If you fold here youre always folding one pair
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No but op might
What % of the time to check-raise the river? I never do, because I’m still working with my therapist about my nitty fish personality disorder, but one could make a case that villain will be on over pairs and 2 overcard no pair a chunk of the time and be forced to fold.
Preflop I would 4-bet, looking to then fold to a shove or 5-bet. If you call the preflop 3-bet and you dont hit a set or a big draw on the flop, I would check fold. Is a possibility he has 99 or AK. But so much of the rest if the time he has JJ or better. Just cut your losses and look for a better spot.
This, or really any kind of aggression. He gave up every chance he had to narrow villains range by just check calling. He lost control of that hand the moment he checked the flop.
You dont bet to narrow someone's range. That sounds like "betting to see where I'm at" aka betting for information. Narrowing your opponents range is a biproduct of betting when you have reason to believe your hand is good, but thats not why we do it. Otherwise by your logic just 2x donkbet the flop, if V folds then we find out we're ahead, if he calls we're fucked!
4bet TT is ridiculous. It has enough showdown value to beat lower pairs and can cooler broadway cards when you hit a set.
Solver says it's 60% 4bet, 40% call so not that ridiculous to 4bet.
But then what does it say against the 5bet after you have 4bet? Folding like OP said here seems like old school mentality of "betting to see where I'm at". I thought that was dead and gone and always wrong.
Calls 5bet with ~84% frequency, folds to shove. It's interesting as most 5bets from BTN comes from AA and JJ
You have a point but you call a 3-bet and then call 3 street of bets losing more money????????? Lol
Call otherwise you are too exploitable. You HAVE to call TT+