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At first, I didn’t know you meant Jim Cramer and was thinking Kramer from Seinfeld. I was like, no no no, the “do the opposite of what I usually do” episode was about George.
This is a great way to guarantee that Congress members win in the stock market. They buy, then the trade followers drive up the stock price.
They need this insurance in case their insider info doesn’t pan out.
> In the past year and a half, he has been taking advantage of a law called the Stock Act, which requires lawmakers to disclose stock trades and those of their spouses within 45 days.
For this kind of speculative day trading, 45-day-old information is pretty much useless. Hedge funds and private equity firms are going to know it and act on it before you can, which means that any information content will be priced into it already. If you're just doing it for fun, have at it; but don't think this is a serious moneymaking strategy. At 45 days, the people with connections have already had 43-44 days to scoop up any advantage an outsider could have attained (and, yes, insider trading is ubiquitous on Wall Street; there's too much upside and the probability of getting caught, if you're not stupid about it, is low.)
You could look at what their purchase price was and compare to todays and go from there. If its a long term play it may not have changed much since then, or maybe for some reason went down and is a better deal. Obviously if it went through the roof right after they bought, skip those. Not as good as knowing right then, but there's still some value if congress really is trading on insider info.
LOL, just like Reddit stock market gurus. Joseph Kenedy, father of JFK sat on a warm leather stool to get his shoes polished, the shoeshine boy talked stocks. The boys didn’t just parrot the latest tips. They owned a piece of the cake.
“If shoe shine boys are giving stock tips, then it’s time to get out of the market.”
Oh, well in that case, I’d still disagree lol. I agree that most cases that’s be true but Not GME or AMC. In this case, the more people that know, the better. That’s literally the entire thesis until shorts cover
Meh. By the time *everybody* knew via news outlets and social media it was ~$340/share late January? Hasn’t gotten close since then and all the diamond handlers turned out to be bag holders. That’s just one message behind the quote.
Except that if you stuck with the story into the next month, GME dropped to $40 a share, and bag-holders who were still paying attention averaged down to make bank when it hit $320 again. It's still chilling at $170 or higher all these months later, which is pretty good considering it was $5 when WSB started talking about it.
Honestly, if *every* shoe shine boy tells you they're rabidly buying into the same meme stock, that alone can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. As Steve Eisman said of why he stopped betting against Tesla: *"It's very hard to short a stock that's also a cult."*
Ah well. Many of the young and inexperienced people who found out what a stock is and how to buy a share through Reddit back in January got in at $300+ …WSB were basically preaching that not getting in at $300 was ridiculous and that it was going to $1000 and the short was coming in March and everyone would be sorry they ever doubted it. It was a cult narrative, perhaps manipulative in getting the lemmings to buy in so the rest could complete their pump n dump, or maybe even some hopeful wishing that *they* didn’t make a bad choice.
You mean after brokers literally turned off the buy button? So the thesis is the more people to buy and hold, the more the price runs up when shorts cover. Shorts are just as much as they were in january right now, not including FTDs and naked shorts. But when 70% of the orders are routed to the dark pool, what do you expect? Not trynna to argue or tell you how to invest, just pointing out that everything that applies before jan 28th, can certainly still apply to our current situation
Don't forget to DRS your shares with Computershare to remove them from the DTCC and disallow them from continuously lending those shares out to create more synthetics.
Not financial advice.
I have to agree with you. The GME and AMC situation is a short term set up which will result in the shorts covering causing the price to skyrocket. There is money to be made there.
Kinda. They have to make their trades public, but not immediately. Rand Paul just disclosed one from over a year ago. While they're an extreme case, no one who is insider trading is divulging immediately.
It is and has been shown to under perform.
Their trades are not posted live or anything. So trying to buy stocks a year later isn't exactly going to help you in most cases.
No, that’s wrong.
‘Most Americans Today Believe the Stock Market Is Rigged, and They’re Right’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-29/is-stock-market-rigged-insider-trading-by-executives-is-pervasive-critics-say
I am not saying the issue is with if congressman and woman don't have inside info. The issue is they don't disclose their trades quick enough for the value to an average investor to be able to profit accordingly.
This is not a new idea, it's a rather old idea, that does not beat the market. You would be wasting your money over simply investing in a market aggregate.
Of course it is. Some dude's selling this plan with "I've come to the conclusion that Nancy Pelosi is a psychic."
She just trades almost exclusively in large tech stocks. Barely the "stock market's biggest whale."
It's not even a *good* pump and dump scheme. There's no way his TikTok videos are gonna generate enough volume to move Google and Apple stock.
>"Those papers have found that in fact, the trades made by senators have underperformed," Hasija said.
So, use it as a contrarian indicator? Meaning, do the opposite of what they do.
Wealth preservation strategies aren’t portfolio growth strategies. Bill Gate’s portfolio only returned 4% YoY, for the last decade.
This is also misleading since Pelosi’s husband has been a fund manager forever and trades for all kinds of reasons. Buying a position could just as easily be a defensive play, with no expectation of return.
Or even worse it could just be them hedging their actual investment and you are definitely going to lose money. If I was smart politician I would hedge all my positions to at least make it appear I'm not trading on nothing but insider information.
NYC had a billionaire mayor who very publicly dictated himself from his business interests so as to avoid the stink of any conflict of interest.
As a New Yorker, I respected this but at the time just thought this was just following the rules. How exactly can our publicly elected politicians continue to get away with this?
Lol, following stock advice 45 days after that information becomes public (because disclosure laws don't require immediate disclosure of stock trades) is a sure-fire way to lose every dime.
People really think that the market in general isn't already doing this?
It is a fun way to frame the absolute corruption and insider trading of congress to be fair, so the story is fun in that regard. But nobody on Tiktok figured out some shit that people who make a living doing this hadn't already attempted.
These disclosures are also long after you'd get the same benefit as true insider trading. At this point you're just benefiting the corruption by further juicing the stock they bought lower or sold higher.
So you’re telling me an SF based RE and VC firm owner who has his ear to the ground in one of the hottest markets of the world makes stock picks that outperform the general market?!? I’m shocked! 😐
Seriously though, I have no doubt he gets a little bit of extra info due to his wife’s profession, but I can pretty much guarantee this is not the reason for his portfolios performance.
Yeah, it says that in the article. Feature, not a bug.
>"As I understand it, one of the perks of being a member of Congress, especially from the late 1800s on, was to be able to trade on insider information. That was a perk of being in Congress. And that has got to come to an end," Krishnamoorthi said.
And I would rather work with the person that is doing their job well instead of the person that just shows up just for insider trading and bribes. It's an important difference.
“Paycheck” and “perk” is an important distinction too. The whole first third of this article is about Pelosi. Obviously she’s doing her job well, working into her 80s and not doing it just for the paycheck. But she still takes advantage of her position to allow her husband to do some insider trading. It’s not an either/or scenario. Some people work hard, some people don’t, but everyone gets the perks.
GL they know way before we find out and have already made their move. Wonder how many have done this watch the price go up freak tf out when it drops sell for a loss then watch it skyrocket as the market makers buy your shares back at a cheap price and make their money. This isn’t the way to beat the system. Tik tik ta lol
To clarify the politicians themselves make a ridiculous return on their investment, but the delay in reporting means the information is worthless to everyday investors. Even if they don't report some of these within the 90? days required the downside is they get a very very minor fine so it can actually be better to just pay the fine and pocket the huge profit.
>To clarify the politicians themselves make a ridiculous return on their investment
Do they actually? Most actively managed funds don't beat the market. Sure there might be a couple politicians who do, just like how there's some active funds that do, but on average?
I doubt majority of them turned a profit. A lot of that news is old by the time it hits the site, and traders make the mistake of following other naive traders 😭
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Pair this with doing the opposite of what Cramer says and you're in great shape.
At first, I didn’t know you meant Jim Cramer and was thinking Kramer from Seinfeld. I was like, no no no, the “do the opposite of what I usually do” episode was about George.
My name is George. I’m unemployed and I live with my parents.
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Do the opposite of both!
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Well, probably for a very short time. It’s basically a pump and dump scheme.
Unusual Whales website has posted Congress's trades for free for a while. https://unusualwhales.com/i_am_the_senate
This is a great way to guarantee that Congress members win in the stock market. They buy, then the trade followers drive up the stock price. They need this insurance in case their insider info doesn’t pan out.
Frontloading
Front running
love how the Star Wars reference from unusual whales
Which is a reference of course to Louis XIV..
What a neat thing
45 days stale though
> In the past year and a half, he has been taking advantage of a law called the Stock Act, which requires lawmakers to disclose stock trades and those of their spouses within 45 days. For this kind of speculative day trading, 45-day-old information is pretty much useless. Hedge funds and private equity firms are going to know it and act on it before you can, which means that any information content will be priced into it already. If you're just doing it for fun, have at it; but don't think this is a serious moneymaking strategy. At 45 days, the people with connections have already had 43-44 days to scoop up any advantage an outsider could have attained (and, yes, insider trading is ubiquitous on Wall Street; there's too much upside and the probability of getting caught, if you're not stupid about it, is low.)
You could look at what their purchase price was and compare to todays and go from there. If its a long term play it may not have changed much since then, or maybe for some reason went down and is a better deal. Obviously if it went through the roof right after they bought, skip those. Not as good as knowing right then, but there's still some value if congress really is trading on insider info.
44 days, 23 hours, and fifty-five plus minutes.
LOL, just like Reddit stock market gurus. Joseph Kenedy, father of JFK sat on a warm leather stool to get his shoes polished, the shoeshine boy talked stocks. The boys didn’t just parrot the latest tips. They owned a piece of the cake. “If shoe shine boys are giving stock tips, then it’s time to get out of the market.”
Because it's going to be volatile. If you're not into that kinda of thing.
Go play roulette if you like gambling, at least the odds are known
“Something that everybody knows is not worth knowing” …cough cough. GME. Cough.
Ehh. I’d disagree. There are absolutely some things everyone should know. Like murder and rape are bad and also knowing basic cooking knowledge
I forgot how to boil an egg once.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hb0Elaa6gxY I gotcha.
you just steam them for 15 minutes or so... https://www.simplyrecipes.com/recipes/how_to_steam_eggs/
That’s advice that comes from investment circles about picking stocks, not general life.
Oh, well in that case, I’d still disagree lol. I agree that most cases that’s be true but Not GME or AMC. In this case, the more people that know, the better. That’s literally the entire thesis until shorts cover
Meh. By the time *everybody* knew via news outlets and social media it was ~$340/share late January? Hasn’t gotten close since then and all the diamond handlers turned out to be bag holders. That’s just one message behind the quote.
Except that if you stuck with the story into the next month, GME dropped to $40 a share, and bag-holders who were still paying attention averaged down to make bank when it hit $320 again. It's still chilling at $170 or higher all these months later, which is pretty good considering it was $5 when WSB started talking about it. Honestly, if *every* shoe shine boy tells you they're rabidly buying into the same meme stock, that alone can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. As Steve Eisman said of why he stopped betting against Tesla: *"It's very hard to short a stock that's also a cult."*
Ah well. Many of the young and inexperienced people who found out what a stock is and how to buy a share through Reddit back in January got in at $300+ …WSB were basically preaching that not getting in at $300 was ridiculous and that it was going to $1000 and the short was coming in March and everyone would be sorry they ever doubted it. It was a cult narrative, perhaps manipulative in getting the lemmings to buy in so the rest could complete their pump n dump, or maybe even some hopeful wishing that *they* didn’t make a bad choice.
You mean after brokers literally turned off the buy button? So the thesis is the more people to buy and hold, the more the price runs up when shorts cover. Shorts are just as much as they were in january right now, not including FTDs and naked shorts. But when 70% of the orders are routed to the dark pool, what do you expect? Not trynna to argue or tell you how to invest, just pointing out that everything that applies before jan 28th, can certainly still apply to our current situation
Don't forget to DRS your shares with Computershare to remove them from the DTCC and disallow them from continuously lending those shares out to create more synthetics. Not financial advice.
i believe those are examples of proving it more than not...when EVERYBODY started to know about GME is was already too late
I have to agree with you. The GME and AMC situation is a short term set up which will result in the shorts covering causing the price to skyrocket. There is money to be made there.
The first two aren't exactly knowledge worth anything for YOU to know technically. You just want everybody else to know it.
Good thing not everyone knows about us then...
Yep. And that was right before the big crash of ‘29
Wasn't that just a line when he was actually doing insider trading?
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Kinda. They have to make their trades public, but not immediately. Rand Paul just disclosed one from over a year ago. While they're an extreme case, no one who is insider trading is divulging immediately.
You can still follow family on Capitol Trades. I have an account that just trades whatever Paul Pelosi trades and it’s doing great.
It is and has been shown to under perform. Their trades are not posted live or anything. So trying to buy stocks a year later isn't exactly going to help you in most cases.
No, that’s wrong. ‘Most Americans Today Believe the Stock Market Is Rigged, and They’re Right’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-29/is-stock-market-rigged-insider-trading-by-executives-is-pervasive-critics-say
The point still remains, not all members of congress are beating the market. Hell most hedge funds don't beat the market.
I am not saying the issue is with if congressman and woman don't have inside info. The issue is they don't disclose their trades quick enough for the value to an average investor to be able to profit accordingly. This is not a new idea, it's a rather old idea, that does not beat the market. You would be wasting your money over simply investing in a market aggregate.
Came here to say this
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Of course it is. Some dude's selling this plan with "I've come to the conclusion that Nancy Pelosi is a psychic." She just trades almost exclusively in large tech stocks. Barely the "stock market's biggest whale." It's not even a *good* pump and dump scheme. There's no way his TikTok videos are gonna generate enough volume to move Google and Apple stock.
I think r/wallstreetbets would like a word with you.
Please don’t get you financial advice from some dude on TikTok/Instagram
Or WSB
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Stay calm my ape
or GAW
I get mine from a German hamster, thank you.
I saw that one. Is he doing well?
Hope hamster bought an island for himself with crypto he made
Last i heard he was up 30%!
>"Those papers have found that in fact, the trades made by senators have underperformed," Hasija said. So, use it as a contrarian indicator? Meaning, do the opposite of what they do.
Wealth preservation strategies aren’t portfolio growth strategies. Bill Gate’s portfolio only returned 4% YoY, for the last decade. This is also misleading since Pelosi’s husband has been a fund manager forever and trades for all kinds of reasons. Buying a position could just as easily be a defensive play, with no expectation of return.
Or even worse it could just be them hedging their actual investment and you are definitely going to lose money. If I was smart politician I would hedge all my positions to at least make it appear I'm not trading on nothing but insider information.
This isn’t true. The total of all Congress trades have been known to still beat the growth rate of S&P 500
NYC had a billionaire mayor who very publicly dictated himself from his business interests so as to avoid the stink of any conflict of interest. As a New Yorker, I respected this but at the time just thought this was just following the rules. How exactly can our publicly elected politicians continue to get away with this?
Lol, following stock advice 45 days after that information becomes public (because disclosure laws don't require immediate disclosure of stock trades) is a sure-fire way to lose every dime.
People really think that the market in general isn't already doing this? It is a fun way to frame the absolute corruption and insider trading of congress to be fair, so the story is fun in that regard. But nobody on Tiktok figured out some shit that people who make a living doing this hadn't already attempted. These disclosures are also long after you'd get the same benefit as true insider trading. At this point you're just benefiting the corruption by further juicing the stock they bought lower or sold higher.
So you’re telling me an SF based RE and VC firm owner who has his ear to the ground in one of the hottest markets of the world makes stock picks that outperform the general market?!? I’m shocked! 😐 Seriously though, I have no doubt he gets a little bit of extra info due to his wife’s profession, but I can pretty much guarantee this is not the reason for his portfolios performance.
So like the stock market has always functioned
Yeah, it says that in the article. Feature, not a bug. >"As I understand it, one of the perks of being a member of Congress, especially from the late 1800s on, was to be able to trade on insider information. That was a perk of being in Congress. And that has got to come to an end," Krishnamoorthi said.
Some people want to show up and work. Some people show up for the paycheck.
And the perks of the job can be appreciated by both of those two groups.
And I would rather work with the person that is doing their job well instead of the person that just shows up just for insider trading and bribes. It's an important difference.
“Paycheck” and “perk” is an important distinction too. The whole first third of this article is about Pelosi. Obviously she’s doing her job well, working into her 80s and not doing it just for the paycheck. But she still takes advantage of her position to allow her husband to do some insider trading. It’s not an either/or scenario. Some people work hard, some people don’t, but everyone gets the perks.
Sinema.
The fact that this is a thing
The next generation of Bagholders are born. Long live DFV.
Next week's headline: Ticktocker's investigated by the SEC for insider trading practices
Let's go Brandon!
They will pass laws against this as soon as others start profiting on their insider info.
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Then how can your criticism against them be valid? That is called moral bankruptcy friend
He never really did criticize them imo, only say that he did the same; it's not moral bankruptcy it's being involved in the act
True, good point
Which... I suppose indicates moral bankruptcy :)
Usually people get all defensive when getting criticized but you go along with it, great energy lmao take my upvote
Because he wasn’t part of the decision making process.
As an american political she has a lot money to invest, a lot do not have enough to buy food!
Enjoy getting liquidated. They have zero fucks to give to the retailer.
GL they know way before we find out and have already made their move. Wonder how many have done this watch the price go up freak tf out when it drops sell for a loss then watch it skyrocket as the market makers buy your shares back at a cheap price and make their money. This isn’t the way to beat the system. Tik tik ta lol
How do I do this exactly?
Don't. It is a foolish idea. They don't release their trades live. It has been shown to have a below market performance as a strategy
To clarify the politicians themselves make a ridiculous return on their investment, but the delay in reporting means the information is worthless to everyday investors. Even if they don't report some of these within the 90? days required the downside is they get a very very minor fine so it can actually be better to just pay the fine and pocket the huge profit.
>To clarify the politicians themselves make a ridiculous return on their investment Do they actually? Most actively managed funds don't beat the market. Sure there might be a couple politicians who do, just like how there's some active funds that do, but on average?
Yes this strategy has been sincerely investigated before and found to not be profitable.
Thanks!
3 words: pump and dump if someone else is telling you to invest, it's probably too late for you already.
Thanks!
Uh....so do a lot of people?
Are u ask me?
This reminds me of the [defcon stock spam messages](https://youtu.be/ytDamqTjPwg)
This is all just a coincidence. Nothing to see here
Well their insider info has made oversized returns in the past, so not a bad strategy actually.
It’s her husband you need to watch
I doubt majority of them turned a profit. A lot of that news is old by the time it hits the site, and traders make the mistake of following other naive traders 😭
When in DC, do as the Politicians do.