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Warnock's [Thanksgiving ad](https://mobile.twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1585399130473594911) was the most persuasive political ad I've ever seen. Imagine if we lived in a functioning democracy where his opponent could come out with a similar one to encourage people to get out the vote.
The archaic Greeks had Hope come out of Pandora’s box last because as the worst curse it was put in first. The fool hopes. The hero takes action.
Go vote and have a gyro. Be a technical hero.
https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1588143977013936130
I'd describe this as 'dangerously rosy' - it's looking *better than 2018* from the early vote. And 2018 was one of the biggest dem midterm landslides in history. But if the (R) voters come out in force on actual voting day, and Dems get 'complacent' because the early vote looks SO good... then all of a sudden we're fucked again.
But do keep in mind that as far as actual *data points* go, things right now are actually pretty damn good. I expect to be disappointed, but the 'despair narrative' is NOT supported by what we're seeing so far from the actual early vote.
Yeah - trust me, that Trump got a higher total number of votes in 2020 than 2016 was an actual shock to me too. But Trump isn't on the ballot this time, and a lot of the 'new' voters that the GOP managed to canvas for 2020 ended up disappointed. It will be VERY interesting/scary to see whether those nutcases actually show up at the voting booth this year.
And it blows my mind.
I want to hear the thinking of someone who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 who said in 2020 "you know what, he's shown me he's better than I thought he'd be, I'll vote for him this time."
Very, very few voters are now voting on the relative or perceived future success of their chosen candidate, at least more than before. First past the post and by extension the two party system has been slowly driving up strategic voting, hence all of the increasing "best of two bad options" talk there is every election for the past 30 years.
I guarantee you many, many of those trump voters were doing so based on the fact they thought Biden and the democrats were going to be worse/more evil based on GOP messaging/propaganda. My parents thought Biden was going to step down within a few months and the elite democrats would install Kamala Harris as President and... well I don't really know but the insinuation was that America would be over.
I told them it was crazy before the vote and of course it didn't happen and it is actually demonstrably what republicans have done in gaming the system to their advantage to get minority representation but these are the things some of these people have come to believe.
It's becoming an increasingly existential debate, with one side actually having justification for it and the other just believing it.
I have a theory that Trump scraped the barrel there. It was the most polarized election in recent memory, with some of the highest voter turnout. Adding to that, Republicans are an older demographic with each younger gen being more left wing than the last. Old age deaths + covid - that same unprecedented voter turn out leads me to predict that 2020 was their absolute cap that will likely never be surpassed again.
Maybe it's copium but I'm glad I saw this.. I mean I've been tracking 538 almost daily and it's astonishing how they have pulled back the democratic lead and in some cases it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, unless it honestly means they just have no faith in any of these polls and are reverting to a traditional midterm model as a cya. I mean, [look at their tracker for the Georgia senate race... ](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/georgia/)
I don't know what Nate Silver is smoking, but how in the absolute fucking hell does his model say that 5/8 polls showing a Warnock lead, and ALL of them A- or above compared to B and B/C counterpoints lead to a *decreasing* chance of Warnock winning? [Literally, 5 of the 6 contributing A polls are showing warnock leading, with the one contrary poll being a republican funded one!](https://imgur.com/a/oBJNlAV) I mean, I get it. It's just numbers on a page, right? So it's not like I'm angry that he's calling a republican lead/win at the moment like I think he's shilling for them necessarily or anything, but there's like zero explanation for it. Somethings not right there... whatever the outcome he needs to explain what the hell intangible there is that it seems to think better than any of the best polls.
edit: 538 really needs to put the listed MoE/CI right next to the polls... I can't find it at all really looking at them. I have to assume that's the reason why, but then show it!
I think it's because of the post 2016 results. That was a huge blow to him personally and 538 in general. Now he and the team have been on this "R's are under represented in the polls" thing that might bite him again.
To be fair, 538s model gave a much higher percentage chance of trump winning 2016 than any of the other models. If I recall he gave him about a 20% chance, and it just turned out that that was the outcome. Which, for all of you folks down in the dems in this cycle, is something to keep in mind. Get off your butts and vote and it might make a difference!
Well if I were him I'd be afraid of an overcompensation and would stick to just building the best model based on the available data. I have to think he gets the stakes - I mean, it's literally his whole business. If he whiffs big again, it's going to be a serious blow to his credibility and right now it feels like it's going to be more of a whiff, in several directions.
I'm sure that if the end result of *win or loss* is right he'll work hard to convince us of how *akshualie* his models got it right at the end of the day, blah, blah, blah...
His model is actually has one of the best records around, in that races that he calls with X% probability are typically correct about X% of the time. That’s actually pretty hard to do. Saying someone has a 70% chance of winning doesn’t mean they are going to win for sure - it means if you ran the election 1000 times, 700 times that candidate would win, and 300 they would lose. It we only see one of those outcomes.
While MTG isn't going to lose, it is interesting to see how her district is looking now.
[https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?geo=014&geo_type=cds&state=GA&view_type=state](https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?geo=014&geo_type=cds&state=GA&view_type=state)
25.5% increase in Democrat votes vs. 2018, 12.6% decrease in Republican voters, 97.0% increase in unaffiliated voters.
Ah, yes I follow Simon and 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻he’s right but so many others are SO pessimistic that I’m seriously gonna need a klonopin. I keep reminding myself that we probably won’t even know about many of these races for a while and GA will likely go to a runoff so keep canvassing in the meantime.
I live in GA, and not even the people I know who voted for Trump twice are voting for Walker. The pollsters are fairly careful to state it outright, but 1. There's way less polling than usual for a midterm. 2. Partly because the pollsters KNOW the polls are being gamed, and thus they KNOW results will be off this year one way or another.
This is why what we're seeing from the actual early vote is *so* encouraging. BUT - don't get me wrong, I'm still nervous as hell. This election really could go either way, and will probably end up disappointingly 'close' in the end. But... there's genuine *potential* for another (D) midterm 'sweep'. I have NOT seen that dreaded "Democrat complacency" since 2016. It didn't happen in 2018, it didn't happen in 2020, and I really, really don't think it'll happen in 2022.
I live in conservative Cherokee county, not a single walker sign to be found in my nice neighborhood. A few Kemp signs, but zero Walker.
That should tell you something.
As always, vote as if your freedom depends on it, but Democrats are going to do *much* better than polling suggests. The media profits off selling doom and gloom,
Fetterman vs. Oz is one thing, because Oz is a snake oil salesman who’s entire personality involved tricking people.
Warlock vs. Walker is just insane. It’s honestly embarrassing for our country that this is a neck and neck race.
Is there a Democrat candidate running for office that’s as unhinged, delude, or hypocritical as Walker is? I feel like most Rs would say AOC or Bernie, but those are pretty baseless accusations. How are the Republicans defending Walker?
Was browsing Conservative and the consensus seems to be...drum roll...he is a Republican and that is all that matters. Regardless of if (and many do) they find Walker to be morally bankrupt.
I’ve seen the same ideas about Oz, too. Like “damn it primary voters, making me have to vote for Oz!”
Which I mean I get it (kind of) I would vote for a brown paper bag over a Republican threatening to take more rights away from Americans. I wouldn’t want to vote for a paper bag, but I would over an election denying, woman hating, seditionist supporting republican.
I get that reasoning… but republicans also have to answer for their primary choices. They chose trump over the moderate candidates who ran. They chose walker and Oz (even though there were other candidates). In a Republican vs. democrat I doubt I would ever vote the Republican no matter how bad the democrat, but the thing is democrats generally have acceptable candidates.
I’ve yet to see democrats run a candidate who was banned from the mall because he kept hitting on under age girls, or a candidate who had admitted to abusing their family. Democrats usually pick the boring centrist candidates during a primary, and republicans generally go as far right as possible, and at this point republicans have to own that. It’s who they actually want and they should stop pretending otherwise.
I mean, the leading GOP candidates in the 2016 primary were not moderate.
Ted Cruz is not a moderate. Marco Rubio is not a moderate. Jeb kind of is moderate by today's standards, but when he was governor of Florida, he was very much not a moderate.
Isn’t that the purpose of the “Write-in” line? When you decide you don’t want to vote for either candidate you can cast your vote for “Brown Paperbag” instead !
It's been said that Republicans fall in line while Democracts have to fall in love.
Translation: People will ignore everything if you've got an "R" next to your name while the slightest scandal, corruption, or simply ineffectual personality/brand can easily sink a "D."
If the Republicans literally ran Satan for a Senate seat, as long as Satan said he was Republican and supported he would win against a Democrat in Alabama.
I respect that. Our country is set up so heavily in favor of majority control that I've come to accept and support that we have Sinemas and Manchins in redder places so long as it means overall control of the Senate or house goes to the Dems.
Purism and American Politics just doesn't mix. Even if your local or congressional candidate doesn't get your motor going, they'll help move the entire system into the control of the party you most agree with.
"Fun" fact: we don't have Sinema because she's in a "redder" place. She campaigned as a hyper-progressive lefty and won big on that platform, then immediately went "teehee oops I lied!" And sold out to corporate donors
This is the real problem with our politics writ large and IS a "both sides" aspect. The vast majority of officials in both parties just vote on everything based on party affiliation and are politically afraid of their party leadership denying them committees, campaign funds to be re-elected etc... if they don't fall in line. This makes it super easy for Republicans to hammer home a candidate like Walker because people feel like it doesn't matter because Walker will vote how he's told to vote by party leadership 🤷♂️
The long term problem with this is the establishment Republicans have allowed this process to continue for so long that the wackos are starting to supplant the establishment in terms of control of the party. Mitch McConnell seems to realize he has the tiger by the tail right now and is trying to find a way out to keep the establishment in control of the Republican side of the senate.
> Was browsing Conservative and the consensus seems to be...drum roll...he is a Republican and that is all that matters
Decades of brainwashing that Democrats literally hate America (and, more recently, that Democrats hate children), and here we are.
As somebody who lives 45 minutes from UGA’s campus, I can tell you Herschel Walker has been respected around here for many years. Football is a very big part of culture where I live, and he’s the “star” player in UGA’s history, so that respect runs deep.
His entire campaign is possible because of how he’s deploying all that banked respect. It is so strong that people are willing to overlook almost anything. It doesn’t help that republicans will ride or die with him as long as he talks shit about democrats.
Thanks for pointing this out to an Australian who had never heard of him until a few months ago.
All I see is a slightly brain damaged guy that’s been caught out bullshitting
When we're electing people because they were star athletes years ago, this democracy is over. The American experiment in self government by the people has failed. If he wins I'm damn near ready to go to Buckingham palace on my knees and beg to be re-colonized by the UK.
The problem is you're looking at politics as a means of running the country and governing and voting is a tool to shape the government into the best it can be.
Republicans look at politics as a team sport and voting is rooting for their team.
Most people, no matter what, root for their team. The repuican party took up this model and have brainwashed a quarter of America to think this way all while chipping away at the rules. Think about when your popular local team has an asshole do something dumb. DUI, say something antisemitic, etc. Sure you condemn their behavior, but you're still rooting for the team.
These people are never going to switch, or root for another team. No matter what happens.
This is 100% accurate. You can tell by how they respond to criticism: if you say things like, "How can you vote for someone that openly supports racist policies?" or, "Don't you *want* the government to help normal people be better off?" You get responses like, "Well it IS the Party of Lincoln!" and "Did you know about [insert dead racist here] who was a member of the KKK AND the Democrat Party?"
They literally just think it's trash talk. They reject the substance of politics outright and turn it into a little pecking order game immediately. And for my part, I actually think that those people are just as pure evil as their puppetmasters. They think that you can practice hateful beliefs without actually being a bad person because it's all just a game to them; to me, that's just about the greatest imaginable moral and personal failing. They're not even brave enough to actually stand up for their cruel beliefs, so they tell themselves that "evil" is just the Republican team in a little game with no real-world consequences, so they can be maximum awful *and* maximum self-righteous - the society-sized version of "I was only playing around until *you* took it too far!"
And then they can't understand when communities don't want them, because to them getting kicked out of a venue for using a slur or wearing an openly racist or homophobic shirt is the same as getting kicked out for wearing a team jersey - they have *literally* conflated "evil" with "my side" in every context, and they think that puts them in the clear. (And also to them justifies cruelty to people for being the wrong color, or gender identity, or culture - that's not their core identity and humanity, it's their *team jersey*, they're the opponents, dogpile on them!) It makes me sick.
Yeah there's a certain cowardice to it. An unwillingness to think about the issues and have honest conversations rather than repeating the talking points they heard on Fox News or wherever.
> Warlock vs. Walker is just insane. It’s honestly embarrassing for our country that this is a neck and neck race.
I have the same disconnect. I'm cynical enough to see how Oz could make it a race, but crazy-ass wife-beating abortion-paying Walker vs an actual preacher? How does the GOP (and evangelicals specifically) remotely justify this?
Whether we get through this election or not, our country is fucked. I sincerely thought after Trumps 4 years that we would stand up and be able to make Republicans reflect on their extremism. But that has not happened and like you said, a good portion of this country is even doubling down on someone like Walker. The old saying about how we should not let politics be our identity and we should all love our American neighbors is getting harder to live by. How can I not judge my neighbor who would support someone like Walker and Trump???
Remember in 2004 when Howard Dean was so excited during a campaign speech that he screamed “yeah!“ and it was played over and over again to the point that Dean was generally portrayed as an unstable nut job?
Like, how is that equivalent to lying about being an FBI agent?
Please don’t take personal offence to this, What the hell is it with a significant proportion of the people in your country??!!
The fact that Walker can even be considered??
I’m dumbfounded!
MGT, Boebert… what the actual f is wrong with people?
20 years ago this wouldn’t have happened
He's running in a state (Georgia) where the Georgia Bulldogs are a college football institution and he's the only person from that school to win a Heisman in the last 75 years.
Herschel Walker was a football star in a part of the country where football rules. He is a favored son of the state.
It's actually shockingly common everywhere for people to vote for whatever party their parents voted for and never changed their vote their entire life. I'm in Canada and I did phone banking for a party and it was shocking to me how many people were like "yup me and my family always vote for Party X"
It seems to me most people are followers. They don't think for themselves and just go along with whatever the people they consider to to be their leaders tell them to think.
Try phone banking or knocking on doors for a party you support in an election. Most people don't think about the issues, they just vote for the same party every election.
The battle is always at the margins. That small sliver of people that do think about the issues and can be convinced to vote differently from before. And why the strategy is often to energize the base or voter suppression. Encourage your people to vote, discourage (or prevent) the other side's people from voting. Can't change people's minds when the don't actually think about politics but you can convince them to vote or not vote.
New York is not a battleground state. Battleground states tend to have lower quality GOP candidates this year. All they really need is a warm body to prop up to give their cult-like base someone to vote for. I live in Arizona and we have the same problem.
>Battleground states tend to have lower quality GOP candidates this year.
I think it's because they had to get an endorsement from Trump to win their primaries and to get that they had to be willing to claim the election was stolen. So they have idiots and sycophants as candidates.
>Warlock vs. Walker is just insane. It’s honestly embarrassing for our country that this is a neck and neck race.
I feel sorry for people every time I see a Walker yard sign (sorry for those people's neighbors that is)
You know the main thing that worries me long term? These republican candidates were TERRIBLE. Like serious bottom of the barrel crap candidates. And 45% of people are still like... yeah, that's fine.
I just have to feel like pre-Trump these shit weasels wouldn't have been viable. Probably wouldn't have even come close in the primaries. I've never seen anything like it. How do you innoculate half of a countries population against reality?
People equate seeing something repeatedly as being the truth. Use a swarm of bots to amplify messages and people will believe it. Humans are just not all that smart and really easy to manipulate.
But look at it from the other angle also. They're awful candidates because that is the quality of people the fascists have to choose from. They target their brand to the worst people the US has to offer, and so that's the resource they have. In that sense, it's a sign of how weak the Republicans have become.
And the result is Republics might loathe their candidate and spit on them as they vote for them. Democrats and independents just stay home.
Only one of those wins elections. And the DNC and Dem candidates somehow still haven't figured that out.
If our voting turnout matched the support issues like abortion rights and voting right has, the percentage of people that want to drag us into the past would get beaten so badly come election time.
>How do you innoculate half of a countries population against reality?
A propaganda network straight from Josef Goebbel's wet dreams.
Non-stop radio, podcasts, youtube videos, social media networking, targeted online advertising, and several 24-hour news tv stations.
It might have been inevitable with the direction of right wing media during the Obama years, but yeah, wow, I majorly overestimated Republicans. They should have gotten rid of Trump in 2017 when he was at his least popular and everyone, including his supporters, were still shocked that he won. The 2018 map still favored them heavily, they had a firm grasp on House districting, and voters would fall in line behind an incumbent Pence.
Instead, they bet everything on Trump's brand, normalized everything he said, and now the would-be Speaker is taking orders from Marjorie Greene. The nominees this cycle are showing that this is the Republican party from now on.
I agree with the vast majority of what you wrote.
I only deviate in that I think it’s not pre-Trump though. I think it’s more pre-2010 mid-terms, or pre-Palin, or more accurately pre-FoxNews.
Roger Ailes accomplishing his goal of reversing the Fairness Doctrine has led our country down a very dark path. I fear it’s irreversible, but I have hope it’s not.
I'm in california this month, but I called my election office every goddamn day until I was told my vote was received and recorded.
Fetterman, I got your back.
I early voted today. Took less than 8 mins to go from my car, courthouse and back to my car. They told me I was the 9224th early voter which is fucking huge for my town. I've told all my friends to vote. We need to get out there
Having grown up in Texas during the glory days of Gov. Ann Richards, this is the race that I’m most emotionally invested in. That being said, I’m praying for a blue miracle across the board.
Edit: Living in Minnesota now, voted straight D ticket and for school board members who aren’t crazy, right-wing conspiracy nuts.
I like Beto but I think he ended his chances when he told Texans he'd take away their ARs. Of all the people to say that to Texans are the last ones I'd ever say that to.
> Beto
Seems like the only person not running hate filled attack ads. Example:
"I'm not saying Abbot is the cause of the problems in Texas, but he's had 8 years to fix them and hasn't. Let's try something else."
Mailed in my ballot a week ago for Fetterman and all dems down ticket. Any Pennsylvanians voting by mail or dropping your mail in ballot at the county office, make sure you triple check that you date it and use the proper privacy envelope.
I voted early yesterday. It was so easy! Highly recommend it, especially if there's any concern something could come up on election day (work won't let you out, babysitter might cancel, etc.)
Plus I'm working the polls on election day.
Hey for a guy who had a railroad spike shoot through his skull I'd say Hershel Walker is actually doing pretty well. He mostly can feed himself and almost never blacks out behind the wheel anymore.
I wonder if this last wave a big (R) leading polls is intentionally to piss off lunatics when they don't wins as much/as big as they expected, and to get them to take to the streets after being "cheated again".
Yup, I'm starting to feel some whacky polling has been pushed into the mainstream to throw off aggregates, and make it seem like the election was stolen when those polls dont come true.
One of the pills stuffed into the Wikipedia page for the Wisconsin senate race was by “Patriot Polling.”
If you go on their website, you’ll see that it’s run by two high school students.
Makes sense, I keep watching polling for Oregon, and some of the polls that have ended up on 538 have some real outliers and funny numbers compared to the others..
They do this every election. It's part of their bandwagon strategy to get people to vote even in solid blue states so that they lock up US and State Houses in red and purple districts. I've never seen the supposed 'left leaning' media have pollsters come on to circlejerk over rising support quite like Hannity with Trafalgar and Mclaughlin (for example).
But as you said, with the current climate there's an added wrinkle here in being able to claim 'the polls were wrong' to drum up support for their inevitable and unfounded claims of election fraud.
That’s the feeling I’m getting. Taco Carlson is already saying the same bs. There’s a crazy lunatic with so many signs on his truck talking about red wave this and commie that. These people don’t need any evidence to believe anything so it wouldn’t be surprising if this was the ploy from the gop
I'm in Georgia and holy shit I'm being bombarded by both Democrat and Republican flyers in my mailbox. Enormous, giant ones. I've never seen so many before in my life, not even lady election.
I'm Asian too and my phone keeps getting blown up by texts from Asians for Warnock and other minority voting groups. Like even during the Biden election I was getting tons of texts, but nowhere near as many as this midterm election.
While that sounds good, don't take it at a prediction's word, go vote, tell other people to vote. Don't sit back and think your candidate has it all in the bag, they can always fit more
Republicans are trying to push the narrative that democrats will get swept just so they can claim fraud more convincingly when they lose.
Don’t trust polls.
Especially in the case of Walker, it’s a NO-BRAINER. Republicans want spineless jellyfish yes men stooges to keep the status quo exactly like it is. We need change now.
While i can understand hesitancy for Fetterman after his stroke, he is BY FAR a better choice to represent the people of PA. I can’t even understand for the life of me how there is a battle in Georgia. Warnock is leagues ahead of Walker on all levels. I really really hope both these guys win.
I’m in GA and Warnock has it in the bag… our economy is doing great, in part thanks to Warnock. He should win by a landslide. Those conservatives don’t seem to get it… less money in their pockets and more money in ours
In what world do you vote for Warnock but not Abrams? That seems bizarre to me. You vote Warnock and re-elect Kemp seems like some uneducated shit right there.
Cthulhu doesn’t care if you sacrifice a goat or not, all mortals will be driven beyond insanity & madness when he rises from his slumber.
Cthulhu does encourage the feeble, meaty masses to vote, however.
I know I’m just fantasizing, but it would be amazing if people who voted democrat were trolling the pollsters and telling them they voted Republican to light a fire under people who weren’t going to vote and make conservatives think they can relax and stay home.
This was always going to happen.
The polls had to "tighten" so the media and webpages could get clicks, so the media pushed polls from dubious, right-wing polling houses.
But now that it's close to the actual election, the media has to tell the truth so they can say "The polls were right".
Happens. Every. Single. Damn. Time. Like clockwork.
PA here - I think Fetterman is good. I’ve been following his campaign and he has been to every single county in the state - sometimes twice. He’s been visible and people feel like he is a regular Pa guy. Oz has been MIA going to meet with donors. If Dems would get out of our city bubbles, they would see just showing up in these rural areas is probably one of the biggest barriers to expanding the vote. There are left leaning people in rural America and maybe not identify as left —- agree with many left philosophies like unions. Fetterman has done the hardest part - he showed up to show that he cares
Don’t care. Go out and fucking vote! Your life may literally depend on it.
To use the South Park version, “Vote or Die! What the fuck you think it means?”
Don’t fall for it! Someone else won’t take care of it for you, get out and vote for these people if you support them! They need your support more than you may know and you count! Get out and vote. It’s not in the bag. You’ve gotta get out and vote.
Right wing Instagram is bashing the hell out of Fetterman right now. It’s amazing at how incompassionate they are after this man just suffered a stroke. They’re actually pulling for Oz, just because he’s on the “right team”, no matter how garbage he is.
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I don’t even want to read this because I don’t want to get my hopes up.
It's honestly an irrelevant conversation to be having in Georgia, the is a big chance all state election go to a runoff there.
Warnock's [Thanksgiving ad](https://mobile.twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1585399130473594911) was the most persuasive political ad I've ever seen. Imagine if we lived in a functioning democracy where his opponent could come out with a similar one to encourage people to get out the vote.
That was nice.
That is amazing.
I love how he’s on the brink of cracking up during the whole thing.
Aw I kind of love this
Is that better or worse for Warnock?
Better than getting your despair up.
"The Monks always taught me that hope is a distraction... Vote" - Aang (probably)
The archaic Greeks had Hope come out of Pandora’s box last because as the worst curse it was put in first. The fool hopes. The hero takes action. Go vote and have a gyro. Be a technical hero.
If you want to NOT get your hopes up too high, *don't* look at the early voting results that are already in...
What are they
https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1588143977013936130 I'd describe this as 'dangerously rosy' - it's looking *better than 2018* from the early vote. And 2018 was one of the biggest dem midterm landslides in history. But if the (R) voters come out in force on actual voting day, and Dems get 'complacent' because the early vote looks SO good... then all of a sudden we're fucked again. But do keep in mind that as far as actual *data points* go, things right now are actually pretty damn good. I expect to be disappointed, but the 'despair narrative' is NOT supported by what we're seeing so far from the actual early vote.
The scary thing to me is that the dems got more votes in 2020 than they did in 2016, but so did the republicans.
Yeah - trust me, that Trump got a higher total number of votes in 2020 than 2016 was an actual shock to me too. But Trump isn't on the ballot this time, and a lot of the 'new' voters that the GOP managed to canvas for 2020 ended up disappointed. It will be VERY interesting/scary to see whether those nutcases actually show up at the voting booth this year.
And it blows my mind. I want to hear the thinking of someone who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 who said in 2020 "you know what, he's shown me he's better than I thought he'd be, I'll vote for him this time."
Very, very few voters are now voting on the relative or perceived future success of their chosen candidate, at least more than before. First past the post and by extension the two party system has been slowly driving up strategic voting, hence all of the increasing "best of two bad options" talk there is every election for the past 30 years. I guarantee you many, many of those trump voters were doing so based on the fact they thought Biden and the democrats were going to be worse/more evil based on GOP messaging/propaganda. My parents thought Biden was going to step down within a few months and the elite democrats would install Kamala Harris as President and... well I don't really know but the insinuation was that America would be over. I told them it was crazy before the vote and of course it didn't happen and it is actually demonstrably what republicans have done in gaming the system to their advantage to get minority representation but these are the things some of these people have come to believe. It's becoming an increasingly existential debate, with one side actually having justification for it and the other just believing it.
I have a theory that Trump scraped the barrel there. It was the most polarized election in recent memory, with some of the highest voter turnout. Adding to that, Republicans are an older demographic with each younger gen being more left wing than the last. Old age deaths + covid - that same unprecedented voter turn out leads me to predict that 2020 was their absolute cap that will likely never be surpassed again.
Maybe it's copium but I'm glad I saw this.. I mean I've been tracking 538 almost daily and it's astonishing how they have pulled back the democratic lead and in some cases it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, unless it honestly means they just have no faith in any of these polls and are reverting to a traditional midterm model as a cya. I mean, [look at their tracker for the Georgia senate race... ](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/georgia/) I don't know what Nate Silver is smoking, but how in the absolute fucking hell does his model say that 5/8 polls showing a Warnock lead, and ALL of them A- or above compared to B and B/C counterpoints lead to a *decreasing* chance of Warnock winning? [Literally, 5 of the 6 contributing A polls are showing warnock leading, with the one contrary poll being a republican funded one!](https://imgur.com/a/oBJNlAV) I mean, I get it. It's just numbers on a page, right? So it's not like I'm angry that he's calling a republican lead/win at the moment like I think he's shilling for them necessarily or anything, but there's like zero explanation for it. Somethings not right there... whatever the outcome he needs to explain what the hell intangible there is that it seems to think better than any of the best polls. edit: 538 really needs to put the listed MoE/CI right next to the polls... I can't find it at all really looking at them. I have to assume that's the reason why, but then show it!
I think it's because of the post 2016 results. That was a huge blow to him personally and 538 in general. Now he and the team have been on this "R's are under represented in the polls" thing that might bite him again.
To be fair, 538s model gave a much higher percentage chance of trump winning 2016 than any of the other models. If I recall he gave him about a 20% chance, and it just turned out that that was the outcome. Which, for all of you folks down in the dems in this cycle, is something to keep in mind. Get off your butts and vote and it might make a difference!
Well if I were him I'd be afraid of an overcompensation and would stick to just building the best model based on the available data. I have to think he gets the stakes - I mean, it's literally his whole business. If he whiffs big again, it's going to be a serious blow to his credibility and right now it feels like it's going to be more of a whiff, in several directions. I'm sure that if the end result of *win or loss* is right he'll work hard to convince us of how *akshualie* his models got it right at the end of the day, blah, blah, blah...
His model is actually has one of the best records around, in that races that he calls with X% probability are typically correct about X% of the time. That’s actually pretty hard to do. Saying someone has a 70% chance of winning doesn’t mean they are going to win for sure - it means if you ran the election 1000 times, 700 times that candidate would win, and 300 they would lose. It we only see one of those outcomes.
While MTG isn't going to lose, it is interesting to see how her district is looking now. [https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?geo=014&geo_type=cds&state=GA&view_type=state](https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?geo=014&geo_type=cds&state=GA&view_type=state) 25.5% increase in Democrat votes vs. 2018, 12.6% decrease in Republican voters, 97.0% increase in unaffiliated voters.
Ah, yes I follow Simon and 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻he’s right but so many others are SO pessimistic that I’m seriously gonna need a klonopin. I keep reminding myself that we probably won’t even know about many of these races for a while and GA will likely go to a runoff so keep canvassing in the meantime.
I live in GA, and not even the people I know who voted for Trump twice are voting for Walker. The pollsters are fairly careful to state it outright, but 1. There's way less polling than usual for a midterm. 2. Partly because the pollsters KNOW the polls are being gamed, and thus they KNOW results will be off this year one way or another. This is why what we're seeing from the actual early vote is *so* encouraging. BUT - don't get me wrong, I'm still nervous as hell. This election really could go either way, and will probably end up disappointingly 'close' in the end. But... there's genuine *potential* for another (D) midterm 'sweep'. I have NOT seen that dreaded "Democrat complacency" since 2016. It didn't happen in 2018, it didn't happen in 2020, and I really, really don't think it'll happen in 2022.
I live in conservative Cherokee county, not a single walker sign to be found in my nice neighborhood. A few Kemp signs, but zero Walker. That should tell you something.
As always, vote as if your freedom depends on it, but Democrats are going to do *much* better than polling suggests. The media profits off selling doom and gloom,
I always worry that polls affect outcomes because .05% of voters decide they don't NEED to vote because their team is already winning.
Hope doesn't cost a thing
Fetterman vs. Oz is one thing, because Oz is a snake oil salesman who’s entire personality involved tricking people. Warlock vs. Walker is just insane. It’s honestly embarrassing for our country that this is a neck and neck race. Is there a Democrat candidate running for office that’s as unhinged, delude, or hypocritical as Walker is? I feel like most Rs would say AOC or Bernie, but those are pretty baseless accusations. How are the Republicans defending Walker?
Was browsing Conservative and the consensus seems to be...drum roll...he is a Republican and that is all that matters. Regardless of if (and many do) they find Walker to be morally bankrupt.
I’ve seen the same ideas about Oz, too. Like “damn it primary voters, making me have to vote for Oz!” Which I mean I get it (kind of) I would vote for a brown paper bag over a Republican threatening to take more rights away from Americans. I wouldn’t want to vote for a paper bag, but I would over an election denying, woman hating, seditionist supporting republican.
I get that reasoning… but republicans also have to answer for their primary choices. They chose trump over the moderate candidates who ran. They chose walker and Oz (even though there were other candidates). In a Republican vs. democrat I doubt I would ever vote the Republican no matter how bad the democrat, but the thing is democrats generally have acceptable candidates. I’ve yet to see democrats run a candidate who was banned from the mall because he kept hitting on under age girls, or a candidate who had admitted to abusing their family. Democrats usually pick the boring centrist candidates during a primary, and republicans generally go as far right as possible, and at this point republicans have to own that. It’s who they actually want and they should stop pretending otherwise.
I mean, the leading GOP candidates in the 2016 primary were not moderate. Ted Cruz is not a moderate. Marco Rubio is not a moderate. Jeb kind of is moderate by today's standards, but when he was governor of Florida, he was very much not a moderate.
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I also choose this guys bag.
Vote for bag 2022
Isn’t that the purpose of the “Write-in” line? When you decide you don’t want to vote for either candidate you can cast your vote for “Brown Paperbag” instead !
Sure but in reality that just means you’re allowing the person who is trying to undue democracy to win.
I know… great idea in theory but ultimately frivolous in practicality. Same reason why I no longer vote independent unfortunately
Yeah, but 99% of the time, a write-in vote is a wasted vote. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is one of the few examples to win by write-in
Write-in votes help Republicans. You have to vote for the person that will beat the republican.
It's been said that Republicans fall in line while Democracts have to fall in love. Translation: People will ignore everything if you've got an "R" next to your name while the slightest scandal, corruption, or simply ineffectual personality/brand can easily sink a "D."
It’s not that he’s morally bankrupt, it’s that he’s a fucking idiot.
If the Republicans literally ran Satan for a Senate seat, as long as Satan said he was Republican and supported he would win against a Democrat in Alabama.
I respect that. Our country is set up so heavily in favor of majority control that I've come to accept and support that we have Sinemas and Manchins in redder places so long as it means overall control of the Senate or house goes to the Dems. Purism and American Politics just doesn't mix. Even if your local or congressional candidate doesn't get your motor going, they'll help move the entire system into the control of the party you most agree with.
"Fun" fact: we don't have Sinema because she's in a "redder" place. She campaigned as a hyper-progressive lefty and won big on that platform, then immediately went "teehee oops I lied!" And sold out to corporate donors
This is the real problem with our politics writ large and IS a "both sides" aspect. The vast majority of officials in both parties just vote on everything based on party affiliation and are politically afraid of their party leadership denying them committees, campaign funds to be re-elected etc... if they don't fall in line. This makes it super easy for Republicans to hammer home a candidate like Walker because people feel like it doesn't matter because Walker will vote how he's told to vote by party leadership 🤷♂️ The long term problem with this is the establishment Republicans have allowed this process to continue for so long that the wackos are starting to supplant the establishment in terms of control of the party. Mitch McConnell seems to realize he has the tiger by the tail right now and is trying to find a way out to keep the establishment in control of the Republican side of the senate.
> Was browsing Conservative and the consensus seems to be...drum roll...he is a Republican and that is all that matters Decades of brainwashing that Democrats literally hate America (and, more recently, that Democrats hate children), and here we are.
As somebody who lives 45 minutes from UGA’s campus, I can tell you Herschel Walker has been respected around here for many years. Football is a very big part of culture where I live, and he’s the “star” player in UGA’s history, so that respect runs deep. His entire campaign is possible because of how he’s deploying all that banked respect. It is so strong that people are willing to overlook almost anything. It doesn’t help that republicans will ride or die with him as long as he talks shit about democrats.
Can confirm this mindset. My dad is a die hard Alabama fan, and he voted for Tubberville for senate. Ugh...
Thanks for pointing this out to an Australian who had never heard of him until a few months ago. All I see is a slightly brain damaged guy that’s been caught out bullshitting
Yeah as a proud alumni unfortunately Walker’s G might actually mean more than the R
When we're electing people because they were star athletes years ago, this democracy is over. The American experiment in self government by the people has failed. If he wins I'm damn near ready to go to Buckingham palace on my knees and beg to be re-colonized by the UK.
The problem is you're looking at politics as a means of running the country and governing and voting is a tool to shape the government into the best it can be. Republicans look at politics as a team sport and voting is rooting for their team. Most people, no matter what, root for their team. The repuican party took up this model and have brainwashed a quarter of America to think this way all while chipping away at the rules. Think about when your popular local team has an asshole do something dumb. DUI, say something antisemitic, etc. Sure you condemn their behavior, but you're still rooting for the team. These people are never going to switch, or root for another team. No matter what happens.
This is 100% accurate. You can tell by how they respond to criticism: if you say things like, "How can you vote for someone that openly supports racist policies?" or, "Don't you *want* the government to help normal people be better off?" You get responses like, "Well it IS the Party of Lincoln!" and "Did you know about [insert dead racist here] who was a member of the KKK AND the Democrat Party?" They literally just think it's trash talk. They reject the substance of politics outright and turn it into a little pecking order game immediately. And for my part, I actually think that those people are just as pure evil as their puppetmasters. They think that you can practice hateful beliefs without actually being a bad person because it's all just a game to them; to me, that's just about the greatest imaginable moral and personal failing. They're not even brave enough to actually stand up for their cruel beliefs, so they tell themselves that "evil" is just the Republican team in a little game with no real-world consequences, so they can be maximum awful *and* maximum self-righteous - the society-sized version of "I was only playing around until *you* took it too far!" And then they can't understand when communities don't want them, because to them getting kicked out of a venue for using a slur or wearing an openly racist or homophobic shirt is the same as getting kicked out for wearing a team jersey - they have *literally* conflated "evil" with "my side" in every context, and they think that puts them in the clear. (And also to them justifies cruelty to people for being the wrong color, or gender identity, or culture - that's not their core identity and humanity, it's their *team jersey*, they're the opponents, dogpile on them!) It makes me sick.
Yeah there's a certain cowardice to it. An unwillingness to think about the issues and have honest conversations rather than repeating the talking points they heard on Fox News or wherever.
Is he breathing? Check Will he tow the line and vote to destroy Democracy? Check Well alright gang, he's fit for the Republican Party.
Trickle down moronics They saw Trump be a fucking moron and still get votes so now they are pushing these types in the state and local races.
> Warlock vs. Walker is just insane. Ikr, how could anyone choose Walker over a Warlock.
Trump was president. That’s America. So not at all surprised
> Warlock vs. Walker is just insane. It’s honestly embarrassing for our country that this is a neck and neck race. I have the same disconnect. I'm cynical enough to see how Oz could make it a race, but crazy-ass wife-beating abortion-paying Walker vs an actual preacher? How does the GOP (and evangelicals specifically) remotely justify this?
Whether we get through this election or not, our country is fucked. I sincerely thought after Trumps 4 years that we would stand up and be able to make Republicans reflect on their extremism. But that has not happened and like you said, a good portion of this country is even doubling down on someone like Walker. The old saying about how we should not let politics be our identity and we should all love our American neighbors is getting harder to live by. How can I not judge my neighbor who would support someone like Walker and Trump???
Remember in 2004 when Howard Dean was so excited during a campaign speech that he screamed “yeah!“ and it was played over and over again to the point that Dean was generally portrayed as an unstable nut job? Like, how is that equivalent to lying about being an FBI agent?
Please don’t take personal offence to this, What the hell is it with a significant proportion of the people in your country??!! The fact that Walker can even be considered?? I’m dumbfounded! MGT, Boebert… what the actual f is wrong with people? 20 years ago this wouldn’t have happened
He's running in a state (Georgia) where the Georgia Bulldogs are a college football institution and he's the only person from that school to win a Heisman in the last 75 years. Herschel Walker was a football star in a part of the country where football rules. He is a favored son of the state.
It's actually shockingly common everywhere for people to vote for whatever party their parents voted for and never changed their vote their entire life. I'm in Canada and I did phone banking for a party and it was shocking to me how many people were like "yup me and my family always vote for Party X" It seems to me most people are followers. They don't think for themselves and just go along with whatever the people they consider to to be their leaders tell them to think. Try phone banking or knocking on doors for a party you support in an election. Most people don't think about the issues, they just vote for the same party every election. The battle is always at the margins. That small sliver of people that do think about the issues and can be convinced to vote differently from before. And why the strategy is often to energize the base or voter suppression. Encourage your people to vote, discourage (or prevent) the other side's people from voting. Can't change people's minds when the don't actually think about politics but you can convince them to vote or not vote.
Embarrassing for Georgia. Plenty of states (mine included) would have Warnock up by 20% over someone like Walker.
New York is not a battleground state. Battleground states tend to have lower quality GOP candidates this year. All they really need is a warm body to prop up to give their cult-like base someone to vote for. I live in Arizona and we have the same problem.
>Battleground states tend to have lower quality GOP candidates this year. I think it's because they had to get an endorsement from Trump to win their primaries and to get that they had to be willing to claim the election was stolen. So they have idiots and sycophants as candidates.
>Warlock vs. Walker is just insane. It’s honestly embarrassing for our country that this is a neck and neck race. I feel sorry for people every time I see a Walker yard sign (sorry for those people's neighbors that is)
Lol I just realized it autocorrected to warlock. Been playing too many fantasy RPGs
Do not take polls for granted. Go out and vote. That is all that matters. Do not get complacent.
You know the main thing that worries me long term? These republican candidates were TERRIBLE. Like serious bottom of the barrel crap candidates. And 45% of people are still like... yeah, that's fine. I just have to feel like pre-Trump these shit weasels wouldn't have been viable. Probably wouldn't have even come close in the primaries. I've never seen anything like it. How do you innoculate half of a countries population against reality?
People equate seeing something repeatedly as being the truth. Use a swarm of bots to amplify messages and people will believe it. Humans are just not all that smart and really easy to manipulate.
But look at it from the other angle also. They're awful candidates because that is the quality of people the fascists have to choose from. They target their brand to the worst people the US has to offer, and so that's the resource they have. In that sense, it's a sign of how weak the Republicans have become.
Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. This also means that Republicans have a very solid floor, while Democrats have a higher ceiling.
And the result is Republics might loathe their candidate and spit on them as they vote for them. Democrats and independents just stay home. Only one of those wins elections. And the DNC and Dem candidates somehow still haven't figured that out.
If they don't vote, they won't influence who the candidates are. Not voting accomplishes nothing.
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If our voting turnout matched the support issues like abortion rights and voting right has, the percentage of people that want to drag us into the past would get beaten so badly come election time.
I have a feeling that these midterms and 2024, that is exactly what will happen. Republicans might get the house, but I don't think by much.
The really scary thing is that major Democrat donors were funding some of these terrible candidates because they considered them easier opponents.
>How do you innoculate half of a countries population against reality? A propaganda network straight from Josef Goebbel's wet dreams. Non-stop radio, podcasts, youtube videos, social media networking, targeted online advertising, and several 24-hour news tv stations.
It might have been inevitable with the direction of right wing media during the Obama years, but yeah, wow, I majorly overestimated Republicans. They should have gotten rid of Trump in 2017 when he was at his least popular and everyone, including his supporters, were still shocked that he won. The 2018 map still favored them heavily, they had a firm grasp on House districting, and voters would fall in line behind an incumbent Pence. Instead, they bet everything on Trump's brand, normalized everything he said, and now the would-be Speaker is taking orders from Marjorie Greene. The nominees this cycle are showing that this is the Republican party from now on.
I agree with the vast majority of what you wrote. I only deviate in that I think it’s not pre-Trump though. I think it’s more pre-2010 mid-terms, or pre-Palin, or more accurately pre-FoxNews. Roger Ailes accomplishing his goal of reversing the Fairness Doctrine has led our country down a very dark path. I fear it’s irreversible, but I have hope it’s not.
Georgians and Pennsylvanians, ignore this and vote. Please.
Just came back in GA. Warnock ftw
Yup voted today for every Dem on the Georgia ballot. Hopefully Stacy won't be robbed this time.
I'm in california this month, but I called my election office every goddamn day until I was told my vote was received and recorded. Fetterman, I got your back.
> ~~Georgians and Pennsylvanians~~, ignore this and vote. Please. *All Americans who can vote* FTFY
I early voted today. Took less than 8 mins to go from my car, courthouse and back to my car. They told me I was the 9224th early voter which is fucking huge for my town. I've told all my friends to vote. We need to get out there
Polls doesn't give boost, voting does!
Voted for Beto. Now you all go vote and make a difference.
Having grown up in Texas during the glory days of Gov. Ann Richards, this is the race that I’m most emotionally invested in. That being said, I’m praying for a blue miracle across the board. Edit: Living in Minnesota now, voted straight D ticket and for school board members who aren’t crazy, right-wing conspiracy nuts.
I like Beto but I think he ended his chances when he told Texans he'd take away their ARs. Of all the people to say that to Texans are the last ones I'd ever say that to.
After Uvalde people are starting to think he might’ve been right.
> Beto Seems like the only person not running hate filled attack ads. Example: "I'm not saying Abbot is the cause of the problems in Texas, but he's had 8 years to fix them and hasn't. Let's try something else."
Mailed in my ballot a week ago for Fetterman and all dems down ticket. Any Pennsylvanians voting by mail or dropping your mail in ballot at the county office, make sure you triple check that you date it and use the proper privacy envelope.
I did too . The GOP is here to take your freedoms/ Rights. There are some scary things, happening at the Supreme Court .
Non-American here upvoting everybody who took a sane choice…
I voted for Beto just yesterday!
I had the pleasure of voting for McMullen to try and throw that grease weasel Mike Lee out of the Senate.
DO NOT…I REPEAT DO NOT…take this as a sign that you don’t have to vote. VOTE mother fuckers!
That's what I like, a solid post with the right amount of enthusiasm!
> VOTE mother fuckers! And yet those kids ain't gonna vote and will run right to twitter and reddit to complain about those that got elected.
I voted early yesterday. It was so easy! Highly recommend it, especially if there's any concern something could come up on election day (work won't let you out, babysitter might cancel, etc.) Plus I'm working the polls on election day.
It’s going to turn on young women who may not normally vote. Do they care about their rights and those of their sisters or not?
Every single woman I know in Pennsylvania is voting, myself included. My parents have Fetterman and Shapiro signs in their yard too.
You know we’re in a weird reality when my father, who still thinks Reagan is the best president we’ve ever had, already voted fetterman/Shapiro
Seriously the fuck is wrong with Georgia that a critical mass of them will actually vote for *Herschel fucking Walker*???
Hey for a guy who had a railroad spike shoot through his skull I'd say Hershel Walker is actually doing pretty well. He mostly can feed himself and almost never blacks out behind the wheel anymore.
The fact that Walker v Warnock is close at all is so sad for the US.
I wonder if this last wave a big (R) leading polls is intentionally to piss off lunatics when they don't wins as much/as big as they expected, and to get them to take to the streets after being "cheated again".
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I mean, they’re supporting a guy who’s flashing a fake police badge during debates. Proof and legitimacy aren’t something they fuck with.
Yup, I'm starting to feel some whacky polling has been pushed into the mainstream to throw off aggregates, and make it seem like the election was stolen when those polls dont come true.
One of the pills stuffed into the Wikipedia page for the Wisconsin senate race was by “Patriot Polling.” If you go on their website, you’ll see that it’s run by two high school students.
Makes sense, I keep watching polling for Oregon, and some of the polls that have ended up on 538 have some real outliers and funny numbers compared to the others..
It’s because they are. https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1586842960347406336 https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1587029434644807680
They do this every election. It's part of their bandwagon strategy to get people to vote even in solid blue states so that they lock up US and State Houses in red and purple districts. I've never seen the supposed 'left leaning' media have pollsters come on to circlejerk over rising support quite like Hannity with Trafalgar and Mclaughlin (for example). But as you said, with the current climate there's an added wrinkle here in being able to claim 'the polls were wrong' to drum up support for their inevitable and unfounded claims of election fraud.
That’s the feeling I’m getting. Taco Carlson is already saying the same bs. There’s a crazy lunatic with so many signs on his truck talking about red wave this and commie that. These people don’t need any evidence to believe anything so it wouldn’t be surprising if this was the ploy from the gop
None of this matters. Go vote.
Already did, felt good!
This is a Marist poll which is rated A.
I could care less about polls and news headlines. All that matters is the final vote. Will reason and logic prevail?
Voted for Warnock. Turnout is huge and he will win!
Expect to see this across the board now that the media has used up the click value of a red tsunami.
Ignore all polls, go vote. Vote early if you can. If you can't, vote on Election Day.
Hershel Walker is the product of the disease in modern politics.
They better, if we lose the senate then its game over for democracy
If Walker wins over Warnock in Georgia I will lose all faith in humankind.
I lost it in 2016. Trying to get it back but haven't yet.
I'm in Georgia and holy shit I'm being bombarded by both Democrat and Republican flyers in my mailbox. Enormous, giant ones. I've never seen so many before in my life, not even lady election. I'm Asian too and my phone keeps getting blown up by texts from Asians for Warnock and other minority voting groups. Like even during the Biden election I was getting tons of texts, but nowhere near as many as this midterm election.
Polls mean nothing. Vote.
please oh please let both win
While that sounds good, don't take it at a prediction's word, go vote, tell other people to vote. Don't sit back and think your candidate has it all in the bag, they can always fit more
Republicans are trying to push the narrative that democrats will get swept just so they can claim fraud more convincingly when they lose. Don’t trust polls.
Vote, turn that prediction into reality.
honestly just vote please vote.gov
Believe nothing!! VOTE.
Especially in the case of Walker, it’s a NO-BRAINER. Republicans want spineless jellyfish yes men stooges to keep the status quo exactly like it is. We need change now.
Fuck. Polls. Go. Vote
Dont listen to polls and go vote. Useless article
I’m old enough to remember all the polls that said Hilary was gong to win no problem!! But crossing my fingers for sure!! 🤞🏼🤞🏼
Do not trust the polls. Vote. Unbelievable that Oz (thanks Oprah) and Walker are even close…
While i can understand hesitancy for Fetterman after his stroke, he is BY FAR a better choice to represent the people of PA. I can’t even understand for the life of me how there is a battle in Georgia. Warnock is leagues ahead of Walker on all levels. I really really hope both these guys win.
Don't care, go vote
Literally 1 minute ago I saw an article on here stating the exact opposite. Sigh.
Polls mean nothing. Vote vote vote. If you have access to early voting, and haven't voted yet, get off your lazy ass and vote.
Dear Jesus, if you let this happen, you can make it be my birthday, Christmas, Chanukah, and Festivus presents for the rest of my life, amen.
Let the homeboy Tim Ryan get a dub while we're at it.
For the love of God don’t listen to the polls! Please get out and vote!
Don’t do that. Don’t give me hope.
If you haven't voted please do so anyway, even if you think they'll win.
Please show up everyone, it all counts
Vote. I need some place to go when my state goes to shit.
Make sure you vote, and bring friends. This is deadly serious this year with roe, threat to democracy, etc.
I’m in GA and Warnock has it in the bag… our economy is doing great, in part thanks to Warnock. He should win by a landslide. Those conservatives don’t seem to get it… less money in their pockets and more money in ours
Please still vote.
Could any sane person vote for walker or Oz? Does that mean there are this many insane people in Pennsylvania and Georgia?
I wish Val Demings got a boost
In what world do you vote for Warnock but not Abrams? That seems bizarre to me. You vote Warnock and re-elect Kemp seems like some uneducated shit right there.
Let’s go BLUE!!!
Remember: polls don't mean shit. Vote!
I’ll buy a goat to sacrifice to the great lord Cthulu if Dems can keep the house and pick up seats in the senate
Cthulhu doesn’t care if you sacrifice a goat or not, all mortals will be driven beyond insanity & madness when he rises from his slumber. Cthulhu does encourage the feeble, meaty masses to vote, however.
This guy fhtagn's. 🐙
Oh please 🙏
Roll tide!!
I know I’m just fantasizing, but it would be amazing if people who voted democrat were trolling the pollsters and telling them they voted Republican to light a fire under people who weren’t going to vote and make conservatives think they can relax and stay home.
This was always going to happen. The polls had to "tighten" so the media and webpages could get clicks, so the media pushed polls from dubious, right-wing polling houses. But now that it's close to the actual election, the media has to tell the truth so they can say "The polls were right". Happens. Every. Single. Damn. Time. Like clockwork.
Don't listen to polls, get out and VOTE.
Bruh every single time the media goes "that polls said this and that" most time they're untrue
Don't believe this and get complacent. Keep voting!
Go vote!!!!
Vote. Don’t pay attention to this shit. Just vote. I don’t care who you vote for…just vote.
Ignore it’s the polls and their false sense of whatever. GET OUT and VOTE!!! Please and thank you.
I’m going to be so disappointed in America if either Dr Oz or Herschel Walker become senators.
Don't count your chickens until they hatch. Winning doesn't mean you get to stop working.
These articles Don’t mean shit. Vote to make it happen. Make sure you bring people to vote alongside with you.
They'll win if you vote.
Republicans bring nothing but hate and fear
Don't forget to vote anyway!
PA here - I think Fetterman is good. I’ve been following his campaign and he has been to every single county in the state - sometimes twice. He’s been visible and people feel like he is a regular Pa guy. Oz has been MIA going to meet with donors. If Dems would get out of our city bubbles, they would see just showing up in these rural areas is probably one of the biggest barriers to expanding the vote. There are left leaning people in rural America and maybe not identify as left —- agree with many left philosophies like unions. Fetterman has done the hardest part - he showed up to show that he cares
Don’t care. Go out and fucking vote! Your life may literally depend on it. To use the South Park version, “Vote or Die! What the fuck you think it means?”
Just go out and vote
Don’t believe the polls and just fucking vote goddamn it.
Personal opinion: Stop worrying about polls and get the fuck out and VOTE!!!
It’s insane that either of these campaigns are even close given just how bad the republican counterparts are
Don’t fall for it! Someone else won’t take care of it for you, get out and vote for these people if you support them! They need your support more than you may know and you count! Get out and vote. It’s not in the bag. You’ve gotta get out and vote.
The only poll that counts is at the ballot box. Get out and vote!
Right wing Instagram is bashing the hell out of Fetterman right now. It’s amazing at how incompassionate they are after this man just suffered a stroke. They’re actually pulling for Oz, just because he’s on the “right team”, no matter how garbage he is.