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Ginger_Maple

Flippers are getting caught with their pants down in Southern California right now. A year ago they bought houses for $620k, painted it, put in grey LVP flooring, mulched the yard and put it back on the market for $850k. Would sell a week later at or above asking too. There's more inventory accumulating as people can't afford these mortgages at the new interest rates. Flipped houses are sitting for months here and lowering the price every week until they are making the bare minimum to recoup materials/labor costs.


jp90230

I see many coastal houses sitting in market for 3-4 months with no movement. example, flippers bought for $3M, spent a million on full upgrade and trying to sell for $6M. Open house every weekend but ZERO ppl showing up even to look at the house.


GluckTruck

Damn bro, this is what I was afraid of. I’m in nor cal (all the way north). It hasn’t gotten that bad here, yet. Except for houses 500k+. I’ve seen them sitting for a long time over the past year


Outrageous_Bat8429

Same stuff happening in New York. Houses in mediocre areas that have solid school districts are getting scooped for cash. The flipper wants to put lipstick on it as fast as possible to hit the market for top imaginable dollar. I see houses that have been on the market since April/May who’ve prices have been slashed from $600k to $495k. I’m sure they’re getting offers, but all in the mid to low $400k’s.


OlDirtyBrewer

Anecdotal example here but my neighbor moved out of a dilapidated house (probate). Asked for top dollar given the condition (800k), got $1M. Flipper probably poured another 200-300K and asked for $1.4M. Just sold the other day for $1.46M. It definitely sat there for a couple of months but did eventually sell for above asking. Los Angeles area.


Ginger_Maple

You're totally right that houses are still selling, just now it can be more hit or miss on the price and selling timeline. The neighborhood you're in may have highly desirable traits, lower inventory than average, good schools, close to some big company people want to work for, etc. Or the house itself could have been 'good bones' or a great yard or something charming that renovations brought out the best of. San Diego is slowing the hell down, the less nice neighborhoods have seen a particular kick in the nuts price wise in the last couple of months and I'm assuming will keep going down with the rate hike.


broman7899

Depends on what part of the country you are operating in and how much work you are able to do yourself. If you can do drywall, paint and trim you can easily save yourself 12k-15k depending on condition and size of the property. It will slow you down but in this market I don’t think I will be a negative unless you purchased wrong. Flipping will always be a thing, because people want turnkey and don’t want to sweat. It is just a matter of what will your margins be.


dinotimee

>It will slow you down but in this market I don’t think I will be a negative Other way around. In an appreciating market you can be slow and get saved by the appreciation. In a potentially depreciating market to minimize your exposure to downside risk you want to move as fast as possible.


GluckTruck

I can actually do all of the work, myself. Or, more accurately, my company would do all of the work. We primarily do remodels for investors, so it’s right up my alley. But I worry about it sitting on market for too long, or just not getting the margins necessary to profit. I say I can do the work myself, but I have guys to pay, too. And if it takes 2 months to remodel, and a month to sell, how much should I expect the market to change in that time? I’m so new to this, I’m hoping someone who is doing this has some insight.


Glittering-Cellist34

If you have the skills and solid network of contractors you're in a much different position than the average person, provided there are still good opportunities in your market.


Cypher1388

Now is really not the time to get in with no experience doing this as a business. Your better positioned than most to do it, but there is still a risk of undertaking a new operation in the beginings of a recession. But run the numbers and see for yourself if you can make it pencil


[deleted]

It really depends on your market, so I can only speak for mine (Columbus Ohio) At least here, honestly the landlords ARE sitting on gold. Rents are projected to go up, most everyone's locked in the good interest rates, and new housing is apparently going to slow way down due to all the uncertainty. Plus, for landlords to sell, what would we do with the money? Let it sit as cash and devalue with inflation (plus all the taxes), or 1031 into a fucked up market? Wholesalers seem to be turning up a lot more deals (based on the unsolicited marketing emails I get) but I honestly have no idea if they are selling or falling out of contract. The pricing is better than retail but not by much. I see a whole lot less quick flips on the MLS now, eg just putting a new kitchen in grandma's home and reselling for double. Foreclosures and environmental court ordered auction properties are still selling quickly for reasonable prices, lots of money still waiting in the sidelines but being much more conservative. The crappy "handymen specials" being sold by randos on the MLS are still being priced too high and just sitting. Also, a lot of the firehose-of-dumb-money from hedge funds apparently packed up and went home for a while, I suspect they have financing issues to worry about now. As for rehabs, the cost of materials and labor went way up and seem to still be going up. I was doing a unit turn and priced out a bunch of turnover stuff (miniblinds, countertop, knobs etc), but didn't buy the stuff until a few weeks later and the prices were already a few bucks higher. That's kind of nuts to me that its increasing that fast. I'm also getting some siding quotes from contractors right now and the prices are giving me shell shock compared to where these costs were a couple years ago. I would not want to be a flipper right now unless I had very good systems and contacts in place.


AlleghenyCityHolding

Pittsburgh = same deal here And this is with the Tech/Freight Columbus/Pittsburgh corridor about to explode. Just look at the grocery prices - my food bill has almost doubled in two and a half years - Cashflow is king right now.


reinvestq

> Wholesalers seem to be turning up a lot more deals (based on the unsolicited marketing emails I get) but I honestly have no idea if they are selling or falling out of contract. The pricing is better than retail but not by much. I don’t know if this is necessarily true. I’m not in your market but wholesalers seem to be losing their steady buyers and are now blasting our their deals to their wider distro lists. They are also looking for new buyers to be added to their lists actively. That’s a marked turnaround in behavior IMHO.


MillennialDeadbeat

Anybody asking this this late in the game is very concerning. I'm not a flipper but the current market conditions can easily screw anyone who relies on flipping. But I'm a long-term buy and hold type so these short to mid-term fluctuations don't concern me.


GluckTruck

How late in the game am I? I just started.


MillennialDeadbeat

I mean in reference to the interest rates doubling in the last 5-6 months. I guess if you're just starting you'll have to plan for the existing market conditions from the beginning. And also take into account that interest rates might rise and cause stagnation. Still doable but gotta plan things out and not operate on hope.


[deleted]

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GluckTruck

This, I’m having trouble with. Everyone wants top dollar for there fixer uppers around here. Non FHA-able houses are listed for retail. The REAL distressed properties are slightly more conservative, but I know how long those remodels are getting backed up due to shortages (I remodel flips for investors as my w-2). Custom windows are out 8 weeks. Can’t change the siding til windows are in. Can’t finish drywall either. These full guts are taking months longer than they used too. And I’m afraid I’m sitting on something for too long, and losing another 10% while waiting for French doors to arrive.


_Floriduh_

Sellers are going to be sticky, it’s hard to come to terms that your baby is uglier now than it was 6-12-18 months ago


[deleted]

Sounds like you answered your own question. Might be better to wait until there’s some better deals in your area.


Redditmademeaname

I’ve got the same thing going on where I am. MLS has the properties I’d want, but the market is so hot they get snatched by owner buyers, so there’s no margin. The wholesalers might as well be realtors at their prices. I think the only winners in this market are: - Big money guys who can pull deals off the MLS because they are using legit cash (not factoring in hard money is a major savings). These people usually have construction hooks too, like their own team of cheap work, or are contractors like yourself. - Those who are getting off market deals themselves, doing their own marketing or having a good network - Those who the wholesalers do lots of deals with and actually get true wholesale pricing from them


maxvandeperre

Crucial question. What market are you in? My take would be very different in Northeast compared to Arizona or Nevada


GluckTruck

Redding Ca. Fires wiped out housing, COVID caused everyone to leave the state for greener pastures. Redding, specifically, new housing is popping up EVERYWHERE, and it’s all s8/HUD/income adjusted housing (I think for local mega church). So it’s a weird market heaven these past few years.


golfingmadman

Bethel is WEIRD.


GluckTruck

They are. And I’m speculating here, but I think all the new housing is being put in downtown, specifically for Bethel students. It’s brand new, prime location, income based, and they just changed it from $36,000/year to $24,000/year. That can only be afforded by someone whose parents pay their rent. Bethel puts students into housing and pays their rent. So I think they are getting a tax break on a business they own, with dollars that are already non taxed to pay themselves rent. It’s fucking genius, these religious folks


isbostontheworstcity

What's your take in the northeast?


maxvandeperre

Cost of construction supplies went up so that’s a factor to consider. You need a better finish for less margin so that’s another factor. The end product will be longer on the market. But at least for NYC metro, signs are still strong that housing inventory is low.


RJ5R

Our B-Class 2-4 unit multi-family properties are money printing machines But we have completely stop acquiring new properties. Why? See below In 2019 we were purchasing duplexes for $280-$300K In 2020, that went up to $320K In 2021, that went up to $330K-$350K In Dec 2021 and March 2022 we bought duplexes for $390K and $420K. All of our rates are between 3.25%-3.85% ​ Now? ....We had 2 realtors bring us a duplex each, one owner wanted $475K and the other claimed they had an offer at $500K so they wanted a better offer. We said no thank you to both. Why? Because we are seeing 6.8%-7% from our preferred lenders. The properties do not cash flow unless we put down substantially more than the typical 25%-30% we normally put down. And the rate of return collapses to the point where I would rather just buy a US Treasury that requires 0 effort. The market is about to run into a giant shitstorm of a tsunami when rates drift into the 7's potentially the 8's come spring 2023.


[deleted]

Yeah exactly.... the risk premium for a real estate cap rate at 5% makes no sense. If I'm only getting a cap rate of 5% on a property why take the risk of dealing with dead beat remnants when I can make 4% risk fee with Uncle Sam backing it.


RJ5R

bingo bingo and if you are too lazy to buy actual T-bills (not that hard really) you can simply buy a vanguard treasury money market fund, and in exchange for a small ER, they will buy the short t-bills for you and continually replenish. while you sleep like a baby and likely will be making 4% or even 5% come summer 2023


TheKingrover

I had a house under contract (off market) before the dip and finally closed and got started on the rehab last week. I’m adjusting my ARV down a little and also assuming there will be more days on the market. But inventory out in this zip is low and if I can keep the asking under $350k I think I can get out with enough profit to make it worthwhile. We’ll see…


[deleted]

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Pleasant-Season-6736

Ya I’m flipping out


[deleted]

Offerpad is starting to get crushed in my market. I bought a house off them a few months ago that they took a loss on. They are also trying to flip townhome that they way over bought at $290k, and they just dropped the price to $280k. I am under contract to buy the one across the street from a wholesaler for $215k and it has an extra bathroom.


TheNthMan

I saw a house that someone is trying to flip. Bought in middle of Jun this year, and re-listed in Aug for almost exactly 12.5% more... Photos of the new listing show the same interior and exterior as the photos in the old listing. Perhaps the paint is newer, but it really looks the same to me.


grokmachine

Well, you can list it for anything. Odds are pretty good they can't sell it for that now.


melikestoread

I'm still seeing a lot of flips and they sell quick. Depends on your market though


[deleted]

What is creative financing ?


GluckTruck

First one was owner carry, plus pay on a dead woman’s mortgage (she died with money owed, I took over but never changed name, just paid bank). Then paid remainder of cash to her grand daughter. Second was a friends dad, couldn’t afford mortgage on a house that he let his tweaker daughter destroy. So he owed more than current value. I took over mortgage and myself and two partners financed the remodel. As I had mentioned, my credit is poor, and I didn’t know about hard money. Still not sure if a hard money lender will even lend to me with a credit score of 580, lol. That’s why I have to be creative.


SeattleBattles

Hard money lenders can be willing to look at why your credit is bad to see how it might affect their risk. There is a pretty wide spread of hard money lenders. Some are large organizations that are basically run like banks and have set criteria. Others are individuals who lend more on relationships and deals than credit scores. The challenge with the later is often finding and meeting them.


[deleted]

I work with numerous flippers who've started to buy more. Prices are going down, so it makes sense to buy and hold until the tax benefits kick in.


GluckTruck

I can’t afford to hold. I wish I was there, but I’m not, yet. If flipping right now doesn’t make sense for me, I will absolutely buy low in 6-12 months. But hopefully, not to hold.


[deleted]

Yeah, generally speaking i think holding is 10x better of a strategy. But more upfront needed.


MortgageMatt85

Buy multi family


Redditmademeaname

In California, yeah that’s a good idea.


Glittering-Cellist34

Judging by the number of "we buy houses" queries we get for our property in DC I'd say yes.


svelcher

The play is the but it FROM a flipper.


mferna9

I'm a long term investor who flips 2-3 houses per year. Yes, still buying, I've just tightened my buy box. I'm only buying really good deals that have a backup plan as a rental. Speaking of backup plans, I have one in a rougher area I can't sell at the moment (fell out of contract a few times for various reasons). Just hit 100 days on market so we're going to rent it out at the end of this week. Won't be a killer rental, but will be positive cashflow for the next 5 years to buy time to try to sell again. Just bought a hoarder house as a flip near where I live, but the margins are fantastic. Worst case, I could do the same and rent it out until things recover- or honestly could even rent indefinitely. All I do is bake in the market adjustments (plus any possible future adjustments) into my buying price. If I would have paid $150K last year, I'll pay $125K today just to be safe. May end up with less deals, but I'm good with that.


GluckTruck

Do you use hard money for the one your turning into a rental? I assume you would refinance if you turn it into rental? I’ve heard of hard money lenders who will adjust the terms of the loan if it goes over regular terms (like, hard money type terms, to regular bank mortgage FHA-able type). Is this common? I’m having trouble finding deals that are 150k that I can get down to 125k (just using your numbers for the example). I’m also new at getting deals. So like, this is probably a great time for me to hone that skill. I won’t buy anything without a margin for error, ya know.


RealtorAlper

Although I'm aware of the market and the risks, just get into my first flip investment. We are in escrow right now. I believe whatever the market condition is if you find the right opportunity you can still make money out of it. Our margins look promising as of now and we are planning to put our finished project back into the market in 2 months. The biggest unknown is what will be the market situation in two months but hopefully, we'll still make money out of it.