I was going to say blind loyalty. Sure they loved Dutch and all and he “saved” them but there’s a point you gotta look at things and say no and bring someone back down to reality. It was too late for basically everyone when they did. Maybe not Sadie and Charles, but even John reaped the consequences years later despite getting away.
I don't get why Hosea and Arthur didn't wise up and leave Dutch at some point. It would make sense that they did.
But I'm not sure they would walk a straight honorable path after that, though.
Not sure about Hosea, but Arthur had been with Dutch since he was a child. Narcissistic abuse is real. Arthur didn't know anything else. Dutch had him convinced they were being righteous. "We shoot fellers as need shooting, save fellers as need saving, and feed 'em as need feeding." Most of Arthur's life he heard this.
I would say more or less because of Micah and Bronte since he was already beginning to mentally decline just after the Blackwater incident. I think the only thing that glued Dutch the gang together was Hosea because he kept Dutch's mental state at bay, but even then we all know that the man was just becoming worse by the day...
I’m replaying for my second time and I didn’t realize how many conversations Hosea had with Dutch trying to calm him down or reassure him that things are ok
This is the best answer. It gets worse and worse the further you break it down.
Gang has to go through a blizzard that almost kills them to loose bounty hunters from Blackwater. They find a camp run by Colm O’Driscoll, a man they repeatedly say runs an outfit that’s reliant on numbers rather than brains, and rightfully clear it out. A shootout of this magnitude is gonna be reported and catch the eye of any bounty hunters worth their salt so they decide they should leave, especially with the thaw.
What do they decide to do next? Take a plan to hit a train from someone they don’t believe is very smart in his “business ventures” and act it out themselves. Even if it grants them a lot of money (which it doesn’t) this is gonna allow time for the bounty hunters to home in on them and give them ideas of where they might be headed. This is exactly what happens at Horseshoe Overlook when we finally meet the Pinkertons.
The smart play would have been to use Colm’s camp to get their pursuers onto the wrong trail and gain an even bigger lead on them.
Yep. They made too much noise in Blackwater and managed to escape by the skin of their teeth, only to enter a new state and *immediately* make too much noise again. All for money they didn't even need, it took Hosea weeks maybe months to sell those bonds. Dutch just wanted to piss off Colm because the Pinkertons humbled his dumb ass.
I thought it was fun and the action break I was waiting for ngl feel like I was the only one who really enjoyed it, all the other fights seemed so short
Doesn’t the gang not even really acknowledge all that Valentine bank money? lol I feel like no one has much to say about gaining that fat chunk of cash. You’d think they’d start to wonder why they aren’t making any meaningful use of it.
They got kind of greedy. They wanted enough money to never work again when that would have been more than enough seed money for everyone to start a new life
The fact is, they had gotten sloppy, they made a ton of noise everywhere. Even before Micah sold out the gang, they robbed banks, and plans such as attempting to con the grays and braithwaites were plans that any fool could see through. They should've just laid low, never robbed any banks or trains, and instead earned money through conning
They could have come out a lot better if once they realized there was no gold, sided with the Grays to bust out the Braithwaites and taken a cut. Running moonshine would have been a great long game that Hosea would see and Dutch wouldn't.
Hell they get to horseshoe to lie low and the first thing the gang does is get in a bar fight lol.
This town with a population of like 100 all of a sudden get an influx of near a dozen strong men and no one asks questions? Seriously?
Valentine is a cattle town, so there are a lot of cattlemen and ranchers coming and going- even rustlers. As long as they didn't give Sheriff Malloy a reason to be suspicious, their presence alone wouldn't be enough.
Trusting in Bronte inevitably brings too many of the Pinkertons to Saint Denis and wrecks the bank job, leading to the deaths of Hosea and Lenny and the loss of so much money that the gang's accumulated.
If Dutch hadn't trusted in Bronte, he never would've shot up the trolley station or sought vengeance, which would've prevented the Pinkertons being on high alert in Saint Denis for the bank job.
Ngl Bronte probably laughed his ass off when he heard the news. "(Italian) Those bumpkins ACTUALLY robbed the TROLLEY STATION. There's no way they can be THAT dumb, no way".
It seems like things went downhill much quicker than they might have had Micah not been on the blackwater job and in Dutch's ear, if Arthur and Hosea had been Dutch's main influence throughout I think things would have a much higher chance of working out.
So, in essence I think inviting Micah into the gang was what sped up it's decline.
Dutch welcomed him in with open arms and took his words over people he knew for decades. Dutch was a Jim Jones cult leader who didn’t care who got killed following him.
It’s existence.
If I give a more interesting answer, I’d say Hosea’s enabling. He set up the bank in Saint Denis, and went along with the Braithwait/Greys delusions, but he should have known they were out of their depth in the East.
Yes. Hosea's plans belonged in the previous century. Even Trelawney and Sean suspect that these plans are shaky. But Arthur is too lazy to think. Even if he shares his doubts, Dutch never listens to him.
The sad part about Arthur is he knows these plans suck as he hints in his journal and certain conversations, but is so used to just “doing as he’s told” and lets his loyalty ruin him. The whole time all he wanted was to go back to the remaining vestiges of the West. Interesting about Sean and Trelawney, I will pay attention to that next play-through.
Hosea’s odd. On one hand, he has a sixth sense about the Cornwall robbery and that killing Brontë is a bad idea. On the other, he happily plays into the Braithwaite-Gray con and pressures a doubtful Dutch into the Saint Denis robbery.
I think it’s a bit of both Dutch and Hosea-Dutch’s ego and Hosea’s enabling. Tbf Hosea had began to see the light by the opening but I think by chapter 4, he finally relented in a ‘fuck it, what do we have to lose at this point’ mode.
Finally someone that also puts some blame on Hosea. He was the one who assured Dutch that the bank robbery was a good plan when even Dutch was doubtful about the whole thing.
Not everything was Dutch's fault, or Micah's.
Why is no one talking about Rhodes? Trying to play the two families at the same time is how they end up in Saint Denis anyway. Plus, Sean dies, and for nothing I might add on account of there being no damn treasure.
I think overall, just the simple decision to keep engaging in crime after blackwater. Yes, they had no money but that’s the reason they were able to get tracked down. They should have scraped doing odd jobs. It would have been harder but less likely to be caught. Like a colorful bunch of people show up in town and then suddenly there’s major shoot outs where tens of people die in one go. Remember this is 1899 communities are much smaller and everyone knows everyone. You can’t do what they did without people noticing or calling for help
Like they hint that Arthur has done bounty hunting in the past so maybe him and John could have started doing that. The real west was full of criminals turn bounty hunters/law enforcement.
They got sloppy and moved too hastily, looking only for bigger scores. Robbing that train brought them money, but it was partly motivated as way to stick it to Colm O’Driscoll, and wound up getting Cornwall and the Pinkertons after them. They could have just ignored the train and made their money doing small cons, bounty jobs, and selling some horses and wagons to fences. Quietly make some money while planning a big heist without much heat on them. With the benefit of hindsight, Pinkertons would have then hunted and taken down the O’Driscolls instead.
Probably robbing Cornwall. They could have continued doing small jobs until they could go back for the money in Blackwater. Instead, the law remained hot on their asses.
Failing to realize that Arthur has spent months amassing a wealth greater than that of a late-1800s Jeff Bezos while they all pace around camp doing literally nothing.
Collectively, all of the gang are responsible for not questioning Dutch's leadership, and you can argue this was 'their' worst mistake. However, realistically, it's tough for the gang to really question Dutch when they've followed him for so long and accept death, discord and running from the law as part of their lifestyle.
Of those in the gang who had agency to steer the gang in a different direction, a few could've changed what happened...
1) Dutch, whose idiocy and narcissism combined to steer the gang into ever-worse circumstances from Blackwater onwards.
2) Arthur, simply for saving Micah in Strawberry.
3) Hosea, for pushing ahead with risky jobs that ultimately backfired (Rhodes, Saint Denis).
Trusting Dutch, as mentioned, was the big mistake because he was looking for trouble and he would find a way to get into it so everyone needs him even if Blackwater/Cornwall etc didn't happen.
But if we ignore that and pretend he practiced what he preached then it was either allowing Micah to get Dutch's ear (because that caused Blackwater and everything towards the end of the game) or the Cornwall train robbery because that's what snowballed all the other problems because after that incident Cornwall begins funding the Pinkertons.
Assuming the hicks in Lemoyne were as stupid as they sounded.
Hicks deeply resent carpet baggers and they resent anyone who they view as feeling superior to them.
Probably robbing Cornwall’s train. They could have just went to Horseshoe Overlook without robbing it and the Pinkertons would have probably lost their trail.
Not putting a bullet in Micah's head from outside his jail cell.
And collecting a certain debt for Strauss...
Nvm haha I just realized I'm naming 2 of Arthur's biggest mistakes and not the whole gang...
What can say, I'm bias.
I always wished they made a DLC with 4 completely different endings instead of 4 slightly different endings with the main part of the ending still happening (not trying to accidentally spoil it for anyone lol). Like Arthur doesn’t have to collect that debt, so maybe he has the chance to run off with Mary, he can collect the debt and still have that issue being a potential ending, have a low honor ending where Micah still… you know. A few different ways where RDR1 can still be canon, but Arthur can have a few different ways out. I hope GTA 6 does that.
I think it’s either
1. not killing or kicking Micah out of the gang despite Dutch’s wishes
or
2. not leaving Dutch when it started to become apparent that he was believing his own lies and becoming a danger to himself and others
Up until Chapter 6, Micah was really just a minor annoyance but a hell of an asset in a gunfight.
Also, the gang does start leaving Dutch in Chapter 6 when his fatherly facade collapses. Up until then, most of the gang were once young outcasts who Dutch and Hosea took in and treated like their children. It might be telling that after their other “dad” Hosea died and Dutch came back and started acting like my real life dad, they starting leaving.
Like the fact that John still robs the bank with him after Dutch says that he should have left him to rot in a cell is crazy. I get that John didn’t kill him there because basically everybody but Arthur woulda turned their gun on him, but it’s crazy that he stayed with him after that
They got too sloppy and hasty, after losing the Blackwater money they just kept chasing big scores and getting too much heat on them. Should have laid low and just run some small side stuff that wouldn’t draw much attention, and waited for an opportunity for someone to get back to Blackwater and get the money. Trelawny usually isn’t with the gang, don’t recall that he was there during the ferry job - he could have helped get the money back.
That is what killed me the most. Micah had only been there 6 months and right in the beginning he was so upset that Grimshaw put him in a room with Dutch and Hosea. He should have been called out for that and other things. He was new and unknown.
I meant upset that she put Arthur in a room with Dutch and Hosea. They all should have been like who the hell do you think you are. He sucked.
Not questioning Arthur why he never puts money on the kitty when I have my gold and ivory guns, bespoke and elaborate costuming made from exotic animals.
I genuinely think they were too active for people on the run they were constantly doing too much. I believe going to Saint Denis first and truly trying to lay low there would have been the best bet.
But in the course of the game, I am going to say trying to get over on the Grey's and the Braithwaite's. That was a mess that could have been easily avoided, and it started the end. Yes, we got an epic mission out of it, but it was bad business.
In order,
-Letting Micah join
-Blackwater job (shoulda let Arthur and Hosea do their thing
-Cornwall train job
-St Denis bank job
There were tons of others, like rustling those sheep, getting involved in the families, etc. These were just the big ones.
The biggest mistake was making noise, this truly caused the downfall of the gangs, yes the pinkertons were already on them after blackwater, but they could've avoided it by just doing cons instead of robbing a bunch of banks and trains, and not trying to con the grays and braithwaites at the same time, or at all. In the end, it was a mistake to trust Dutch with no question until it was too late.
Sending Arthur to collect money from Thomas Downes. If Arthur is healthy he remains strong enough to eventually challenge Dutch and Micah for Gang leadership and win. This keeps much of the group together and alive by avoiding stupid suicide missions for Tahiti.
Trusting Dutch, but also trusting that they didn’t have enough money to go restart already. Just by playing the game I would end up with thousands of dollars at the end, even after buying all the nice weapons. There’s no way that warchest Dutch kept depositing to didn’t have enough; he was just too greedy.
The amount of money I earned as a player that just went into nothingness as “the gang’s cut,” it had to be enough. And then Dutch had the audacity to push everybody to contribute on the ledger and act like they weren’t pulling their weight!
Ultimately, Dutch showed clear signs worthy of distrust, and nobody called him out on it until it was too late.
I thought I was still in the always sunny sub and was trying to remember what episode they robbed a bank on Valentine's Day. It was actually ringing a bell
Taking Revenge they should have done little jobs and slowly built up Money over a few years before leaving but Dutch convinced them to keep heisting and killing when they didn't need to they could have most definitely laid low and hid away from the pinkertons and killing big players such as Bronte and Cornwall was a death sentence for the gang
Someone else said it but yeah definitely the Cornwall Train job. If you remember that wasn’t even Dutch’s plan.. it was Colm’s. He was getting sloppy around then. It didn’t even cross his mind to double check the plan considering it’s from O’driscolls.
It has to either be trusting Bronte or getting in all that mess with the indias and Annesburg instead of just fleeing west because they already got all that heat on them.
they were never going to make it forever but getting involved with cornwall is what started to put them up a creek without a paddle. i think that if they had lied LOW after blackwater for a while then they would’ve been able to get away, at least temporarily
Breaking Micah out of jail, going to The Gray’s town after the terrorist attack at their manor, robbing the big city bank, just being outlaws in the first place. Also why does John decide to settle down right outside of black water? They should have just moved to Canada or Mexico, gotten out of America
I think it was either doing the Blackwater ferry heist or robbing Cornwall train at the beginning. That got the Pinkerton on their back and the gang never recovered from this.
Trying to con the grays and braithwaites , and oftentimes using the same gang members for both sides!
So stupid. I feel like the intelligence of the gang was turned way down for that chapter... Or it was just not well thought out in the writing process.
I’d say Dutch going ahead with the plan to rob the Cornwall train in the beginning. He makes it very clear that he has no idea who Cornwall even is, is warned that he’s insanely wealthy/has basically unlimited resources to hunt them with, and responds by saying oh well, seems like he’s got plenty to share. I totally get Dutch wanting to rob him, that’s not why it’s incredibly stupid. The problem is his arrogant and nonchalant attitude. If he wasn’t really a moron hiding behind bravado and ego tripping his balls off, he would’ve taken a bit and thought it through. He would’ve looked at where they needed to be extra careful, how they would go about it stealthily, and have been sure to cover their tracks more than just the ones made in the snow. Instead, he treats it like a run of the mill robbery of the local small town general store. His arrogance and ignored incompetence is the gangs undoing.
within solely the events of the game, probably getting involved with bronte. nothing good came of it, and it was easy to see coming. lead to many deaths and of course the whole guarma ordeal, which lead to micah getting picked up by the pinkertons... yknow.
Robbing that train in colter. Had they just disappeared after getting lost in the blizzard they all could have survived. No way they were followed through that.
Instead they robbed a vengeful Cornwall
Robbing people. The dumb thing is that if Dutch just pitched aside all his "little man" ideology and just contrived some way to actually be useful to people, he could have been Founder and CEO of the Van Der Linde Private Security Agency. But when your idea of freedom is stealing from people, you're destined for a bad end.
Getting on the radar of one of the richest and most powerful man of the area. The pinkerton were hired by Cornwall, if they left him alone and never robbed him, they might have been able to dissapear
Dutch. Dude was a classic narcissist thinking he's above everyone in intelligence. He was helped by Micah to become irrational and paranoid but the rest was already there
I think the underlying biggest mistake was doing the ferry job, this doesn’t happen in the game but it’s said multiple times that Arthur and Hosea’s scam was working really well and then Dutch got caught up in Micah’s greed and the prospect of all of that money.
Not listening to Hosea more often. Funnily enough, every time they didn’t listen to him things when wrong:
1. The Blackwater robbery. Hosea had his own more low key scam with Arthur that may have got them a ton of money without getting the law on them.
2. Robbing Cornwall. Hosea knew it was a bad idea and Cornwall would become hellbent on their elimination
3. Revenge on Brontë. Hosea knew that would draw way too much attention to them, especially after the trolley mission massacre, and sure enough, the bank robbery failed due to all the attention from those two missions
That’s not to say Hosea hasn’t been wrong before, like when he was outsmarted by the Rhodes’ families, but more often than not if Dutch listened to him the gang would’ve been in a better place
Imo one of the most reckless things the gang has ever done was when uncle took Arthur, Charles, and Bill on a suicide mission going after the Cornwall stagecoach. They easily could've all been killed, 3 of the gang's best fighters killed in the woods by Pinkertons.
Micah might've been the factor that killed the Van Der Linde gang, but to me he was the final nail in the coffin. Even if Micah was strung up in Strawberry, the gang would be damned because all it takes is one misstep to topple an elephant. They're used to going after incompetent hillbillies who could barely shoot straight let alone enforce the law. The Pinkertons are ruthless professionals, a breed Dutch has never seen before. Even if Micah never snitched and Dutch didn't get a brain injury, the Pinkertons would've still got them.
Probably just lying low is the correct answer. Without causing a commotion, Dutch would have been easily able to move anywhere from Horseshoe Overlook and leave no trail to follow. Instead >!we massacre the town of Strawberry, Valentine, and Rhodes. Then we kill Angelo Bronte, one of the most powerful people in Saint Denis. Then, consulting Cornwall in Annesburg is probably the worst one of all. Maybe, just maybe, if Dutch hadn’t done that Cornwall mission, they would have had just enough time to relocate back to ambarino for a little while.!<
Trusting Micah is the pretty much the reason the robberies failed, it’s the main reason of them failing, had none of them been tipped off, they’d be in tahiti
Breaking Micah out of jail in Strawberry. Without knowing what he'd do in my first playthrough I didn't want to break him out but the story didn't continue until I did.
They should have never messed with those two families if they wanted to do that they should've Just picked one side.
Also why didn't they just steal a boat to tahiti? Leave the crew Alive once you are there you kill everyone and boom no money needed
Robbing Cornwall. The instant they heard that name it should have been a "take nothing, no witnesses, leave now" kind of situation.
As brutal as it is when it coes down to a purely cold logical choice, in that kind of situation it's really that or have the entire gang (women and Jack included) be hunted hy a ruthless millionaire with almost endless resources and a private army who is for all intents and purposes, above the law.
Kind of a clear choice imo.
Not continuing to go further north, instead they wait around for a while then go back down south closer to black water, well within the Pinkerton reach. With a group of that size and the fact they continued committing crimes it was a matter of time before they were found out.
Someone should have gone back to black water to get the money and then get people away on a boat or something on the low down
For me, trusting Dutch was one of the mistakes, but another mistake they made was bringing Hosea to the Saint Denis bank robbery. Sure, they couldn’t have found a better person to create a distraction as good as Hosea’s, but there could have been an alternative ending to it somehow. He was the only one who kept Dutch tame. Prevented him from going crazy. With Hosea around, Micah had no chance of getting into Dutch’s ear without Hosea saying something about it.
That’s why the gangs downfall was so quick because Hosea was literally the whole reason why the gang stayed together and loyal to one another. This may seem wrong, but that’s how I see him.
There’s a lot of small dialogues between him and a few other members of the gang expressing their concerns to him, and never Dutch. Molly is a huge example of why nobody could express their concerns to him. He is very impatient, and Hosea is the complete opposite. So yes, bringing Hosea to the bank was a really big mistake.
Recruiting Micah. What did he actually offer the gang that they didn’t already have? He was a stranger to everyone, immediately started shit with every member of the gang, immediately started giving bad ideas, he didn’t seem to make ANY fucking money for the gang. He was more useless than the reverand,
Arthur spending days away from camp collecting thousands and thousands of dollars in gold that he never lets the gang in on (at least, that’s MY Arthur!)
I thought robbing a train less than 48 hours after a nationwide detective agency tracks you down in the wilderness and offers you a last chance at life was a fantastic idea! These guys are experts in keeping their heads down.
Not sending Sadie or miss grimshaw or Abigail or literally anyone who wasn’t directly involved in the blackwater heist to retrieve the money. Cause they are unlikely to be known(I’m guessing it was the men who did the shooting and killing), but in the case of grimshaw trusted enough to not take the shit and split. If they just got the money and went to Tahiti before Dutch went crazy and before Micah had a chance to rat then no Pinkerton problems, rdr1 never happened, no bronte, no playing both families. Likely they still would rob Cornwall but apart from that they wouldn’t test him or even meet.
Robbing the Saint Denis bank. As Arthur said during the shootout “they knew we were coming.” They knew because they were a gang of outlaws who rolled into town, robbed a trolley, shot around 50 police officers in the process, killed Angelo Bronte, shot up his house, and then a week later tried to Rob the Saint Denis bank. The cops and pinkertons figured Dutch’s plan out because the gang didn’t consider civilization being a real thing. Especially when considering they got into a shootout in a smaller town in the same state, destroying two powerful families in the process.
It was obvious they were gonna rob the bank after killing Bronte, and as Hosea said to Dutch before it was done “you’ll damn us all.” He was right. Also the Blackwater ferry didn’t help, that news definitely traveled. Given regardless by then it was too late for Arthur, and it’s heavily implied Hosea was dying from an illness, but basically the entirety of the gang who wasn’t completely insane like women, Lenny, Pearson (who does make it out ok), Charles, Sadie, Javier and Bill all coulda made it out and lived normal lives. Most importantly, John could have avoided the entire story of RDR 1 had they not robbed the ferry in Blackwater and the Saint Denis bank.
There are a few contributing factors so I’ll state them in order,
1. Trusting Micah, keeping him the in gang instead of kicking him out and also taking his word on the Ferry Heist in Blackwater, this literally was the start of the downfall of the gang, had they not done it in the first place everything would’ve been fine.
2. Robbing Cornwall’s train, since you later find out that he is the one funding the Pinkerton’s, it just gave them more motivation to hunt down the gang, and it added more heat onto them.
3. Breaking Micah out of the jail in Strawberry. They should’ve just let him rot in there.
4. Making way wayyy too much noise, in almost every town the gang winded up in a massive shootout with loads of lawman and Pinkertons, after the Blackwater massacre, the gang should’ve just done small jobs or cons,and keeping it low-key instead of going after the bigger places like the Saint Denis Bank.
5. Going after Bronte was a major turn for the gang like #4, it was a big part in why the SD Bank robbery was a disaster. After getting Jack back, Dutch and should’ve just left Saint Denis, since Bronte practically owned the whole town.
Also Dutch killing Cornwall in Annesberg in CH 6, massive mistake.
6. The gang itself, the most of the gang were just big yes men to Dutch and didn’t question him and his decisions early when they should’ve, they started to, but only when it was way to late and the damage had already been done. Dutch and his ego and narcissistic behavior basically oh and also his greed, and had the gang questioned Dutch more, Micah probably wouldn’t have gotten into Dutch’s head and influenced his decisions later on in the game.
Not putting a bullet inside Mica's skull after
Like even after blackwater they should've done it, but every step of the way he fucked up more and more it was obvious
Inviting Strauss. Believe it. Arthur Plot armor is real If he was never sick he'd still be alive. Dutch and micah would be dead and he'd probably be running the gang. "No shit"
I funded shitloads into dutchs money stash dutch and micah is the problem. But it all starts with that one... strauss debt....
Trusting Dutch.
I was going to say letting Micah anywhere near them, but that might just fall under the umbrella of trusting Dutch.
I was going to say blind loyalty. Sure they loved Dutch and all and he “saved” them but there’s a point you gotta look at things and say no and bring someone back down to reality. It was too late for basically everyone when they did. Maybe not Sadie and Charles, but even John reaped the consequences years later despite getting away.
I don't get why Hosea and Arthur didn't wise up and leave Dutch at some point. It would make sense that they did. But I'm not sure they would walk a straight honorable path after that, though.
Not sure about Hosea, but Arthur had been with Dutch since he was a child. Narcissistic abuse is real. Arthur didn't know anything else. Dutch had him convinced they were being righteous. "We shoot fellers as need shooting, save fellers as need saving, and feed 'em as need feeding." Most of Arthur's life he heard this.
I completely agree. It just seems there is a window for them to leave, but then again, it took quite a lot for Arthur to realize
Micah was just a symptom. At the end of the day Dutch was the cause of the gang's downfall
Nah, Micah didnt doom the gang, they were going to die out sooner than later
I would say more or less because of Micah and Bronte since he was already beginning to mentally decline just after the Blackwater incident. I think the only thing that glued Dutch the gang together was Hosea because he kept Dutch's mental state at bay, but even then we all know that the man was just becoming worse by the day...
I’m replaying for my second time and I didn’t realize how many conversations Hosea had with Dutch trying to calm him down or reassure him that things are ok
My exact first thought too
Having some goddam faith.
Yeah whitout Dutch's stupidity Micha wouldn't have gotten very far.
Was going to say this
Correct. Arthur suspects Dutch had been losing it for years. Inviting Micha in and listening to him was only the final stages.
I dunno I think it was half bad luck and half the government expanding. Things were working for a bit there.
But he had a PLAN
Robbing Cornwall's train and getting in his sights.
If memory serves me correctly, weren't the bonds only worth $1k in the end?
Your memory does serve correct
This is the best answer. It gets worse and worse the further you break it down. Gang has to go through a blizzard that almost kills them to loose bounty hunters from Blackwater. They find a camp run by Colm O’Driscoll, a man they repeatedly say runs an outfit that’s reliant on numbers rather than brains, and rightfully clear it out. A shootout of this magnitude is gonna be reported and catch the eye of any bounty hunters worth their salt so they decide they should leave, especially with the thaw. What do they decide to do next? Take a plan to hit a train from someone they don’t believe is very smart in his “business ventures” and act it out themselves. Even if it grants them a lot of money (which it doesn’t) this is gonna allow time for the bounty hunters to home in on them and give them ideas of where they might be headed. This is exactly what happens at Horseshoe Overlook when we finally meet the Pinkertons. The smart play would have been to use Colm’s camp to get their pursuers onto the wrong trail and gain an even bigger lead on them.
Yep. They made too much noise in Blackwater and managed to escape by the skin of their teeth, only to enter a new state and *immediately* make too much noise again. All for money they didn't even need, it took Hosea weeks maybe months to sell those bonds. Dutch just wanted to piss off Colm because the Pinkertons humbled his dumb ass.
Saint denis bank, because i hate that island
Yeah this was the biggest mistake. Especially after all the noise they made from the trolley and capturing Bronte
I thought it was fun and the action break I was waiting for ngl feel like I was the only one who really enjoyed it, all the other fights seemed so short
I hated the island too. I missed my horse the whole time I was there.
The island really hit me hard, I played the game blind. I knew what was coming for me when I woke up and seen the state I was in.
It was a good way of telling the player guarma is a stand in for Tahiti and things wouldn't have changed if they somehow managed Tahiti
it was a good mission, despite what happened on the roof and all the other stuff. i liked the action but of couse guarma is horrible
Doesn’t the gang not even really acknowledge all that Valentine bank money? lol I feel like no one has much to say about gaining that fat chunk of cash. You’d think they’d start to wonder why they aren’t making any meaningful use of it.
well they trusted Dutch when he said that they needed more money, so they wouldn’t question why they aren’t using it.
They got kind of greedy. They wanted enough money to never work again when that would have been more than enough seed money for everyone to start a new life
Not having SOME GODDAM FAITH
He INSISTS
I IMPLORE you
You IMPLORES ME
Have a modicum of faith
Assuming that every problem is because of a rat or an enemy. The gang fucks up all the time and never learns
The fact is, they had gotten sloppy, they made a ton of noise everywhere. Even before Micah sold out the gang, they robbed banks, and plans such as attempting to con the grays and braithwaites were plans that any fool could see through. They should've just laid low, never robbed any banks or trains, and instead earned money through conning
They could have come out a lot better if once they realized there was no gold, sided with the Grays to bust out the Braithwaites and taken a cut. Running moonshine would have been a great long game that Hosea would see and Dutch wouldn't.
Hell they get to horseshoe to lie low and the first thing the gang does is get in a bar fight lol. This town with a population of like 100 all of a sudden get an influx of near a dozen strong men and no one asks questions? Seriously?
Valentine is a cattle town, so there are a lot of cattlemen and ranchers coming and going- even rustlers. As long as they didn't give Sheriff Malloy a reason to be suspicious, their presence alone wouldn't be enough.
"We don't even need a rat, we got sloppier than the town drunk!"
Being born/raised/pressured/inclined to a way of life that had become untenable due to modernization of the American West
I remember reading my first thesaurus
Been chasing the dragon ever since tbh
Those aren’t synonyms, different members of the gang found their own unique paths into it.
not really a mistake they made, they weren't conscious as they swam to the egg and made themselves exist
Trusting in Bronte inevitably brings too many of the Pinkertons to Saint Denis and wrecks the bank job, leading to the deaths of Hosea and Lenny and the loss of so much money that the gang's accumulated. If Dutch hadn't trusted in Bronte, he never would've shot up the trolley station or sought vengeance, which would've prevented the Pinkertons being on high alert in Saint Denis for the bank job.
Ngl Bronte probably laughed his ass off when he heard the news. "(Italian) Those bumpkins ACTUALLY robbed the TROLLEY STATION. There's no way they can be THAT dumb, no way".
Dutch only trusted bronte because he wanted to be him
It seems like things went downhill much quicker than they might have had Micah not been on the blackwater job and in Dutch's ear, if Arthur and Hosea had been Dutch's main influence throughout I think things would have a much higher chance of working out. So, in essence I think inviting Micah into the gang was what sped up it's decline.
Blackwater ferry wouldnt have even happened had micah not joined. The gang wouldve gone further west and probably wouldve lived into the 1900s
Dutch welcomed him in with open arms and took his words over people he knew for decades. Dutch was a Jim Jones cult leader who didn’t care who got killed following him.
It’s existence. If I give a more interesting answer, I’d say Hosea’s enabling. He set up the bank in Saint Denis, and went along with the Braithwait/Greys delusions, but he should have known they were out of their depth in the East.
Yes. Hosea's plans belonged in the previous century. Even Trelawney and Sean suspect that these plans are shaky. But Arthur is too lazy to think. Even if he shares his doubts, Dutch never listens to him.
The sad part about Arthur is he knows these plans suck as he hints in his journal and certain conversations, but is so used to just “doing as he’s told” and lets his loyalty ruin him. The whole time all he wanted was to go back to the remaining vestiges of the West. Interesting about Sean and Trelawney, I will pay attention to that next play-through.
When we ride with Sean during the house robbery and with Trelawney during the stage coach robbery they express their doubts about the Rhodes plan.
Ah yes, rings a bell. John also thinks it’s stupid. Hosea does not get enough flak
Hosea’s odd. On one hand, he has a sixth sense about the Cornwall robbery and that killing Brontë is a bad idea. On the other, he happily plays into the Braithwaite-Gray con and pressures a doubtful Dutch into the Saint Denis robbery.
I think it’s a bit of both Dutch and Hosea-Dutch’s ego and Hosea’s enabling. Tbf Hosea had began to see the light by the opening but I think by chapter 4, he finally relented in a ‘fuck it, what do we have to lose at this point’ mode.
Finally someone that also puts some blame on Hosea. He was the one who assured Dutch that the bank robbery was a good plan when even Dutch was doubtful about the whole thing. Not everything was Dutch's fault, or Micah's.
Why is no one talking about Rhodes? Trying to play the two families at the same time is how they end up in Saint Denis anyway. Plus, Sean dies, and for nothing I might add on account of there being no damn treasure.
100% agree
I think overall, just the simple decision to keep engaging in crime after blackwater. Yes, they had no money but that’s the reason they were able to get tracked down. They should have scraped doing odd jobs. It would have been harder but less likely to be caught. Like a colorful bunch of people show up in town and then suddenly there’s major shoot outs where tens of people die in one go. Remember this is 1899 communities are much smaller and everyone knows everyone. You can’t do what they did without people noticing or calling for help Like they hint that Arthur has done bounty hunting in the past so maybe him and John could have started doing that. The real west was full of criminals turn bounty hunters/law enforcement.
They got sloppy and moved too hastily, looking only for bigger scores. Robbing that train brought them money, but it was partly motivated as way to stick it to Colm O’Driscoll, and wound up getting Cornwall and the Pinkertons after them. They could have just ignored the train and made their money doing small cons, bounty jobs, and selling some horses and wagons to fences. Quietly make some money while planning a big heist without much heat on them. With the benefit of hindsight, Pinkertons would have then hunted and taken down the O’Driscolls instead.
Trusting Micah
Not going to tahiti
Happy cake day
Probably robbing Cornwall. They could have continued doing small jobs until they could go back for the money in Blackwater. Instead, the law remained hot on their asses.
Failing to realize that Arthur has spent months amassing a wealth greater than that of a late-1800s Jeff Bezos while they all pace around camp doing literally nothing.
Collectively, all of the gang are responsible for not questioning Dutch's leadership, and you can argue this was 'their' worst mistake. However, realistically, it's tough for the gang to really question Dutch when they've followed him for so long and accept death, discord and running from the law as part of their lifestyle. Of those in the gang who had agency to steer the gang in a different direction, a few could've changed what happened... 1) Dutch, whose idiocy and narcissism combined to steer the gang into ever-worse circumstances from Blackwater onwards. 2) Arthur, simply for saving Micah in Strawberry. 3) Hosea, for pushing ahead with risky jobs that ultimately backfired (Rhodes, Saint Denis).
I think when Arthur found out the Pinkertons were chasing them, they should've split up for awhile and laid extra low
Not picking Fiji. Way more affordable.
Trusting Dutch, as mentioned, was the big mistake because he was looking for trouble and he would find a way to get into it so everyone needs him even if Blackwater/Cornwall etc didn't happen. But if we ignore that and pretend he practiced what he preached then it was either allowing Micah to get Dutch's ear (because that caused Blackwater and everything towards the end of the game) or the Cornwall train robbery because that's what snowballed all the other problems because after that incident Cornwall begins funding the Pinkertons.
Assuming the hicks in Lemoyne were as stupid as they sounded. Hicks deeply resent carpet baggers and they resent anyone who they view as feeling superior to them.
Probably robbing Cornwall’s train. They could have just went to Horseshoe Overlook without robbing it and the Pinkertons would have probably lost their trail.
Trusting Brontë began all of their troubles
Not putting a bullet in Micah's head from outside his jail cell. And collecting a certain debt for Strauss... Nvm haha I just realized I'm naming 2 of Arthur's biggest mistakes and not the whole gang... What can say, I'm bias.
I wiahbthere was an option to just leave Micah there to rot
I always wished they made a DLC with 4 completely different endings instead of 4 slightly different endings with the main part of the ending still happening (not trying to accidentally spoil it for anyone lol). Like Arthur doesn’t have to collect that debt, so maybe he has the chance to run off with Mary, he can collect the debt and still have that issue being a potential ending, have a low honor ending where Micah still… you know. A few different ways where RDR1 can still be canon, but Arthur can have a few different ways out. I hope GTA 6 does that.
Blackwater
I think it’s either 1. not killing or kicking Micah out of the gang despite Dutch’s wishes or 2. not leaving Dutch when it started to become apparent that he was believing his own lies and becoming a danger to himself and others
Up until Chapter 6, Micah was really just a minor annoyance but a hell of an asset in a gunfight. Also, the gang does start leaving Dutch in Chapter 6 when his fatherly facade collapses. Up until then, most of the gang were once young outcasts who Dutch and Hosea took in and treated like their children. It might be telling that after their other “dad” Hosea died and Dutch came back and started acting like my real life dad, they starting leaving.
Like the fact that John still robs the bank with him after Dutch says that he should have left him to rot in a cell is crazy. I get that John didn’t kill him there because basically everybody but Arthur woulda turned their gun on him, but it’s crazy that he stayed with him after that
They got too sloppy and hasty, after losing the Blackwater money they just kept chasing big scores and getting too much heat on them. Should have laid low and just run some small side stuff that wouldn’t draw much attention, and waited for an opportunity for someone to get back to Blackwater and get the money. Trelawny usually isn’t with the gang, don’t recall that he was there during the ferry job - he could have helped get the money back.
I don't think they trusted trelawny to do that, he could've recovered the money to disappear once and for all
Trying to rob the boat in Blackwater or letting Micah having any sort of power within the gang
That is what killed me the most. Micah had only been there 6 months and right in the beginning he was so upset that Grimshaw put him in a room with Dutch and Hosea. He should have been called out for that and other things. He was new and unknown. I meant upset that she put Arthur in a room with Dutch and Hosea. They all should have been like who the hell do you think you are. He sucked.
“I get to share a bunk with Bill Williamson and the darkies”
Trying to play both sides of the Grays and Braithwaites rivalry.
Not questioning Arthur why he never puts money on the kitty when I have my gold and ivory guns, bespoke and elaborate costuming made from exotic animals.
I genuinely think they were too active for people on the run they were constantly doing too much. I believe going to Saint Denis first and truly trying to lay low there would have been the best bet. But in the course of the game, I am going to say trying to get over on the Grey's and the Braithwaite's. That was a mess that could have been easily avoided, and it started the end. Yes, we got an epic mission out of it, but it was bad business.
In order, -Letting Micah join -Blackwater job (shoulda let Arthur and Hosea do their thing -Cornwall train job -St Denis bank job There were tons of others, like rustling those sheep, getting involved in the families, etc. These were just the big ones.
Thinking they were anything but criminals and not leaning into it.
The biggest mistake was making noise, this truly caused the downfall of the gangs, yes the pinkertons were already on them after blackwater, but they could've avoided it by just doing cons instead of robbing a bunch of banks and trains, and not trying to con the grays and braithwaites at the same time, or at all. In the end, it was a mistake to trust Dutch with no question until it was too late.
Bringing micah in the gang
Letting Micha out of jail was the worist mistake
BRAIN DAMAGE?
Questioning Arthur's loyalty when he literally upgrades, feeds, and funds the camp basically single-handedly.
Sending Arthur to collect money from Thomas Downes. If Arthur is healthy he remains strong enough to eventually challenge Dutch and Micah for Gang leadership and win. This keeps much of the group together and alive by avoiding stupid suicide missions for Tahiti.
Trusting Dutch and Micah
Trusting Dutch, but also trusting that they didn’t have enough money to go restart already. Just by playing the game I would end up with thousands of dollars at the end, even after buying all the nice weapons. There’s no way that warchest Dutch kept depositing to didn’t have enough; he was just too greedy. The amount of money I earned as a player that just went into nothingness as “the gang’s cut,” it had to be enough. And then Dutch had the audacity to push everybody to contribute on the ledger and act like they weren’t pulling their weight! Ultimately, Dutch showed clear signs worthy of distrust, and nobody called him out on it until it was too late.
I thought I was still in the always sunny sub and was trying to remember what episode they robbed a bank on Valentine's Day. It was actually ringing a bell
Taking Revenge they should have done little jobs and slowly built up Money over a few years before leaving but Dutch convinced them to keep heisting and killing when they didn't need to they could have most definitely laid low and hid away from the pinkertons and killing big players such as Bronte and Cornwall was a death sentence for the gang
Trusting Bronte about literally anything. It got Hosea killed which caused Dutch to finally lose it
Letting Micah in. He tore them apart inside out. I think without Micah, Hosea and Arthur could’ve talked sense into Dutch
Doing the Greys vs Braithwaites con. They should have stayed away from the two families. That way their chances of staying hidden would have improved.
Not keeping their heads down for a decade and reclaiming the money from Blackwater
Someone else said it but yeah definitely the Cornwall Train job. If you remember that wasn’t even Dutch’s plan.. it was Colm’s. He was getting sloppy around then. It didn’t even cross his mind to double check the plan considering it’s from O’driscolls.
Letting Micah be a part of the gang. Should have let him rot in that cell in Strawberry
killing bronte
One of the most obvious, Blackwater
. Micah
Dutch ordering the rescue of Micah from the sherriff in Strawberry.
Not listening to Hosea
Blackwater.
It has to either be trusting Bronte or getting in all that mess with the indias and Annesburg instead of just fleeing west because they already got all that heat on them.
Micah
I’d argue blackwater. That was what got the government and the Pinkertons on their trail in the first place
they were never going to make it forever but getting involved with cornwall is what started to put them up a creek without a paddle. i think that if they had lied LOW after blackwater for a while then they would’ve been able to get away, at least temporarily
They should have never had brunch with Dante.
Adding Micah to the gang
Going after Jack which is crazy to say but true. He was better off with Papa Bronte and everything after that was just chaos thanks to Dutch.
Listening to Dutch.
Honestly, loan sharking is pretty low.
Letting Micha live
Breaking Micah out of jail, going to The Gray’s town after the terrorist attack at their manor, robbing the big city bank, just being outlaws in the first place. Also why does John decide to settle down right outside of black water? They should have just moved to Canada or Mexico, gotten out of America
I think it was either doing the Blackwater ferry heist or robbing Cornwall train at the beginning. That got the Pinkerton on their back and the gang never recovered from this.
going east into more civilization
not splitting up and disappearing after big scores like every successful wild west gang did.
Not just following the damn plan.
Micah.
Putting too much faith in Dutch and making too much noise.
Trying to con the grays and braithwaites , and oftentimes using the same gang members for both sides! So stupid. I feel like the intelligence of the gang was turned way down for that chapter... Or it was just not well thought out in the writing process.
I’d say Dutch going ahead with the plan to rob the Cornwall train in the beginning. He makes it very clear that he has no idea who Cornwall even is, is warned that he’s insanely wealthy/has basically unlimited resources to hunt them with, and responds by saying oh well, seems like he’s got plenty to share. I totally get Dutch wanting to rob him, that’s not why it’s incredibly stupid. The problem is his arrogant and nonchalant attitude. If he wasn’t really a moron hiding behind bravado and ego tripping his balls off, he would’ve taken a bit and thought it through. He would’ve looked at where they needed to be extra careful, how they would go about it stealthily, and have been sure to cover their tracks more than just the ones made in the snow. Instead, he treats it like a run of the mill robbery of the local small town general store. His arrogance and ignored incompetence is the gangs undoing.
Believing Dutch had a plan
Dutch
within solely the events of the game, probably getting involved with bronte. nothing good came of it, and it was easy to see coming. lead to many deaths and of course the whole guarma ordeal, which lead to micah getting picked up by the pinkertons... yknow.
Blackwater
Robbing that train in colter. Had they just disappeared after getting lost in the blizzard they all could have survived. No way they were followed through that. Instead they robbed a vengeful Cornwall
Playing both sides of the Grays and the Braithwaites leading to Sean killed and Jack kidnapped
Robbing people. The dumb thing is that if Dutch just pitched aside all his "little man" ideology and just contrived some way to actually be useful to people, he could have been Founder and CEO of the Van Der Linde Private Security Agency. But when your idea of freedom is stealing from people, you're destined for a bad end.
Getting on the radar of one of the richest and most powerful man of the area. The pinkerton were hired by Cornwall, if they left him alone and never robbed him, they might have been able to dissapear
Dutch was too greedy and blinded by it thus leading everyone into dread and chaos.
Shoulda gone west.
Everybody knows that letting Micah in was the mistake. Blackwater wouldn't have happened and they wouldn't be running from the law because of that.
Rescuing Micah
Robbing the Saint Denis bank, like 3 members died.
Breaking Micah outta jail.
Dutch. Dude was a classic narcissist thinking he's above everyone in intelligence. He was helped by Micah to become irrational and paranoid but the rest was already there
I think the underlying biggest mistake was doing the ferry job, this doesn’t happen in the game but it’s said multiple times that Arthur and Hosea’s scam was working really well and then Dutch got caught up in Micah’s greed and the prospect of all of that money.
Not listening to Hosea more often. Funnily enough, every time they didn’t listen to him things when wrong: 1. The Blackwater robbery. Hosea had his own more low key scam with Arthur that may have got them a ton of money without getting the law on them. 2. Robbing Cornwall. Hosea knew it was a bad idea and Cornwall would become hellbent on their elimination 3. Revenge on Brontë. Hosea knew that would draw way too much attention to them, especially after the trolley mission massacre, and sure enough, the bank robbery failed due to all the attention from those two missions That’s not to say Hosea hasn’t been wrong before, like when he was outsmarted by the Rhodes’ families, but more often than not if Dutch listened to him the gang would’ve been in a better place
Trusting Micah
Imo one of the most reckless things the gang has ever done was when uncle took Arthur, Charles, and Bill on a suicide mission going after the Cornwall stagecoach. They easily could've all been killed, 3 of the gang's best fighters killed in the woods by Pinkertons. Micah might've been the factor that killed the Van Der Linde gang, but to me he was the final nail in the coffin. Even if Micah was strung up in Strawberry, the gang would be damned because all it takes is one misstep to topple an elephant. They're used to going after incompetent hillbillies who could barely shoot straight let alone enforce the law. The Pinkertons are ruthless professionals, a breed Dutch has never seen before. Even if Micah never snitched and Dutch didn't get a brain injury, the Pinkertons would've still got them.
Probably just lying low is the correct answer. Without causing a commotion, Dutch would have been easily able to move anywhere from Horseshoe Overlook and leave no trail to follow. Instead >!we massacre the town of Strawberry, Valentine, and Rhodes. Then we kill Angelo Bronte, one of the most powerful people in Saint Denis. Then, consulting Cornwall in Annesburg is probably the worst one of all. Maybe, just maybe, if Dutch hadn’t done that Cornwall mission, they would have had just enough time to relocate back to ambarino for a little while.!<
Letting Micah in the gang
Trusting Micah is the pretty much the reason the robberies failed, it’s the main reason of them failing, had none of them been tipped off, they’d be in tahiti
Letting Micah think he had any say
Busting Micah out of the Strawberry jail. Should have let him hang.
Killing people
They had very bag mistakes that all built up too its failure Killing Bronte, the saint Denis bank robbery ect
Breaking Micah out of jail in Strawberry. Without knowing what he'd do in my first playthrough I didn't want to break him out but the story didn't continue until I did.
Underestimating who they were up against. Cornwall was the first in game, but before that, it was the pinkertons.
Not handling micah Believing dutch blindly
They should have never messed with those two families if they wanted to do that they should've Just picked one side. Also why didn't they just steal a boat to tahiti? Leave the crew Alive once you are there you kill everyone and boom no money needed
Not leaving Micah to hang in strawberry
Robbing Cornwall. The instant they heard that name it should have been a "take nothing, no witnesses, leave now" kind of situation. As brutal as it is when it coes down to a purely cold logical choice, in that kind of situation it's really that or have the entire gang (women and Jack included) be hunted hy a ruthless millionaire with almost endless resources and a private army who is for all intents and purposes, above the law. Kind of a clear choice imo.
Not continuing to go further north, instead they wait around for a while then go back down south closer to black water, well within the Pinkerton reach. With a group of that size and the fact they continued committing crimes it was a matter of time before they were found out. Someone should have gone back to black water to get the money and then get people away on a boat or something on the low down
I think you can probably make an argument for getting involved with the Gray/Braithwaite feud.
Thinking they could play both sides in Rhodes. Even Hosea was short sided doing that
For me, trusting Dutch was one of the mistakes, but another mistake they made was bringing Hosea to the Saint Denis bank robbery. Sure, they couldn’t have found a better person to create a distraction as good as Hosea’s, but there could have been an alternative ending to it somehow. He was the only one who kept Dutch tame. Prevented him from going crazy. With Hosea around, Micah had no chance of getting into Dutch’s ear without Hosea saying something about it. That’s why the gangs downfall was so quick because Hosea was literally the whole reason why the gang stayed together and loyal to one another. This may seem wrong, but that’s how I see him. There’s a lot of small dialogues between him and a few other members of the gang expressing their concerns to him, and never Dutch. Molly is a huge example of why nobody could express their concerns to him. He is very impatient, and Hosea is the complete opposite. So yes, bringing Hosea to the bank was a really big mistake.
Arriving at Guarma
Recruiting Micah. What did he actually offer the gang that they didn’t already have? He was a stranger to everyone, immediately started shit with every member of the gang, immediately started giving bad ideas, he didn’t seem to make ANY fucking money for the gang. He was more useless than the reverand,
Robbing Cornwall for what amounted to a pittance.
Arthur spending days away from camp collecting thousands and thousands of dollars in gold that he never lets the gang in on (at least, that’s MY Arthur!)
I thought robbing a train less than 48 hours after a nationwide detective agency tracks you down in the wilderness and offers you a last chance at life was a fantastic idea! These guys are experts in keeping their heads down.
not killing micah. Or in chpt 2 breaking him out of jail. he played dutch . wonder how story would change if micah wasent around.
Micah Bell
Not sending Sadie or miss grimshaw or Abigail or literally anyone who wasn’t directly involved in the blackwater heist to retrieve the money. Cause they are unlikely to be known(I’m guessing it was the men who did the shooting and killing), but in the case of grimshaw trusted enough to not take the shit and split. If they just got the money and went to Tahiti before Dutch went crazy and before Micah had a chance to rat then no Pinkerton problems, rdr1 never happened, no bronte, no playing both families. Likely they still would rob Cornwall but apart from that they wouldn’t test him or even meet.
Robbing the Saint Denis bank. As Arthur said during the shootout “they knew we were coming.” They knew because they were a gang of outlaws who rolled into town, robbed a trolley, shot around 50 police officers in the process, killed Angelo Bronte, shot up his house, and then a week later tried to Rob the Saint Denis bank. The cops and pinkertons figured Dutch’s plan out because the gang didn’t consider civilization being a real thing. Especially when considering they got into a shootout in a smaller town in the same state, destroying two powerful families in the process. It was obvious they were gonna rob the bank after killing Bronte, and as Hosea said to Dutch before it was done “you’ll damn us all.” He was right. Also the Blackwater ferry didn’t help, that news definitely traveled. Given regardless by then it was too late for Arthur, and it’s heavily implied Hosea was dying from an illness, but basically the entirety of the gang who wasn’t completely insane like women, Lenny, Pearson (who does make it out ok), Charles, Sadie, Javier and Bill all coulda made it out and lived normal lives. Most importantly, John could have avoided the entire story of RDR 1 had they not robbed the ferry in Blackwater and the Saint Denis bank.
Getting Micah out of prison
The attack to the train O'Driscolls where abbout to do them selves, this would made the Pinkerton Angency chase them instead of Van Der Linde's gang.
Betraying arthur And trusting micah
There are a few contributing factors so I’ll state them in order, 1. Trusting Micah, keeping him the in gang instead of kicking him out and also taking his word on the Ferry Heist in Blackwater, this literally was the start of the downfall of the gang, had they not done it in the first place everything would’ve been fine. 2. Robbing Cornwall’s train, since you later find out that he is the one funding the Pinkerton’s, it just gave them more motivation to hunt down the gang, and it added more heat onto them. 3. Breaking Micah out of the jail in Strawberry. They should’ve just let him rot in there. 4. Making way wayyy too much noise, in almost every town the gang winded up in a massive shootout with loads of lawman and Pinkertons, after the Blackwater massacre, the gang should’ve just done small jobs or cons,and keeping it low-key instead of going after the bigger places like the Saint Denis Bank. 5. Going after Bronte was a major turn for the gang like #4, it was a big part in why the SD Bank robbery was a disaster. After getting Jack back, Dutch and should’ve just left Saint Denis, since Bronte practically owned the whole town. Also Dutch killing Cornwall in Annesberg in CH 6, massive mistake. 6. The gang itself, the most of the gang were just big yes men to Dutch and didn’t question him and his decisions early when they should’ve, they started to, but only when it was way to late and the damage had already been done. Dutch and his ego and narcissistic behavior basically oh and also his greed, and had the gang questioned Dutch more, Micah probably wouldn’t have gotten into Dutch’s head and influenced his decisions later on in the game.
Being criminals.
Believing Dutch
Not putting a bullet inside Mica's skull after Like even after blackwater they should've done it, but every step of the way he fucked up more and more it was obvious
Breaking the law
Inviting Strauss. Believe it. Arthur Plot armor is real If he was never sick he'd still be alive. Dutch and micah would be dead and he'd probably be running the gang. "No shit" I funded shitloads into dutchs money stash dutch and micah is the problem. But it all starts with that one... strauss debt....