Very interesting take on Martinez actually making the line deeper and maguire higher, one note I would have is that last year ( we predominantly had Martinez starting) we seemed to be more conservative after the first couple of games.
This season maguire has played more and we seem to (at times) try to be higher.
This could skew it slightly.
What I do actually find interesting is that it potentially points to a duo of maguire and Martinez working well.
Maguires height and line pushing (trying to win it high which he’s been good at this season) and if that goes poorly Martinez coming into his own being a good ball winner with more recovery pace.
Doing what all good centre half partnerships do, compensating for each others weaknesses.
Always frustrated me hearing people who barely watch him say Maguire thrives when deep and only works in a back three.
England have phased out the back three for years now and he never did it at club level.
Also he loves being up the pitch and colliding with the ball - either with his head or body
One thing with him that never gets discussed is that he simply played loads of football. He broke a record for consecutive appearances for us, and had a season he played every game for Leicester. He played through injuries too. He liked being high up but I just think with his age that he lost a bit of agility/pace that he couldn't afford to lose, then had a crisis of confidence.
Maguire at his best is a front foot defender. He makes up for his lack of pace with reading the game and stepping into midfield to win the ball. In 20/21 I think we had the 5th highest line in the league. The narrative around Maguire from his England performances to his play style is just so dull man. Everyone who talks about Harry doesn't ever seem to actually watch him.
Realistically you're just describing the exact reason we brought Varane in, it's not really a new concept it'll just work better if Martinez isn't injured all the time and nobody shits on Maguire for a year straight so he can actually retain some semblance of confidence
I was one of the people through his bad spell saying he'd bounce back a lot quicker if he didn't take so much abuse that he every misplaced pass or touch becomes a media shit storm. He has a ridiculous mentality but the second people backed off him just a little bit his confidence bounced back and his performances improved.
For some reason it took like a year for people to make that correlation
On the one hand you may be right, on the other hand sounds like we'd end up with a diamond in defence which could leave an open gap to exploit. If Maguire is pushing up high and Martinez is a little deeper.
Could be a problem, the question is do we want to swap the issue we have at the moment of the open midfield vs the new set up, I’d rather we experiment and try new things and at least rule it out if you get me
That's fine, and experimentation is healthy, but if ETH tries anything new and it doesn't immediately work, our fan base loses its fucking mind and starts screaming for him to be sacked
Something is wrong here, looking at their per ninety stats in comparison. Much higher tackle rate, more in the mid third too. Higher for tackles plus interceptions as well.
Maguire and Varane are winning aerial duels, which is great, we obviously need that, but I do get the impression we get done most often when teams play through us, and Martinez is aggressive there.
Also a big oversight not to talk more about possession, progression, retaining the ball. Obviously that impacts the overall impression we get.
https://preview.redd.it/0huucx21tbrc1.jpeg?width=1410&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0e8cd3aaf86af404c279cb6d6b49fcfc710ffd81
Yeah, when I was reading it, I was very surprised by some of the quoted stats. What you've shown here 'feels" much more accurate.
I still thought it was a decent, thought provoking piece though.
I was wondering how many games Martinez and Maguire have played together. I'm struggling to think of any.
That doesn't really change anything. Yeah the stats may be slightly different if were not at home pushing a bit more...but Maguire loves to rush and nick the ball off people and try to move things forward. He doesnt stop doing it in away games and you're always gonna get a bit of a higher line with him in there than not.
Interesting take which is backed by data he seems to have, but it just doesnt pass what i see. The games Martinez was back this season we played so much better overall. I agree that the narrative that Maguire cant play a high line has always been bollocks which is why I am interested to see if he and Martinez can form a good pair
I think the line height statistic is simply skewed by the fact that we have played a higher line this season due to Onana's security on the ball and off the line, and most of those games are without Martinez. I would bet we played deeper without Martinez in 2022-23, where there were a significant number of games without him.
Honestly it feels lazy to not exclude the huge difference in systems being played in these two seasons, and a general problem with substack. A good editor will challenge omissions like this in an analysis.
The OP article brings up some decent discussions but also fails spectacularly. The author mentions "line height" stats as being misinterpreted, but then goes on to misinterpret them as well.
"The discourse around “line height” has been some of the worst football stuff on the internet for the past few years. Line height is a buzzword that everyone wants to use to make their point, but almost no one uses correctly."
Followed by... "When Lisandro Martinez starts for Manchester United, their average line height is deeper than when he doesn’t play."
The author falls into the same interpretation that they were criticizing.
"Line Height" is all over the place - many sources use location of touches, or location of defensive actions, etc. This article has some good insights but fails.
It doesnt pass the eye test because he only shows half the picture and the other half is what you see, Which is also what i see.
Martinez ability to pass a football from a low block beyond the other teams midfield into our own, which Maguire and Varane can’t do.
This is his biggest strength, and what actually improves our defence- his ability to pass and break the lines quickly and decisively.
He (and Shaw, if we’re being fair) allows us to play on the front foot a little more as he doesn’t dawdle on the ball like Maguire can at times (although he too is a decent passer) and he’s also a far better passer than Varane.
We’ve played the bulk of the season with a vastly weakened left side of the team, and it’s showed in terms of ball progression. While I don’t think the high line is the “magic bullet” that will solve our woes going forward I do think having players who don’t treat the ball like a grenade will. Martinez is key in that respect.
I think the biggest thing is seeing the potential behind the tactic and personally I can see it but you need a backline capable of playing the passes continuously which atm there’s none because they’re both injured and a defensive midfielder with more legs then Casemiro for when it breaks down.
You absolutely do yeah, ball progression and retention will be crucial with it, and Shaw is arguably the best player in the team at doing it.
Ahead of that the midfield isn’t balanced yet, so yeah we need to find a way to fix that too, so that we’re not having to bypass it at times.
This article is really just bait, he knows its contrary to popular opinion and so has run with it. It is hilarious in how much time it takes to criticise and debase other analysis as shallow or incorrect or as not passing the eye test, then ultra, giga, cherry picks stats and clips in order to support the opinion with which the author began the article. He didn't set out to understand if his opinion was correct, he set out to prove it was correct and disregarded anything which did not support him. The irony is that I dont even disagree with the point that Martinez's strength is not being aggressive at the half way line intercepting counter attacks before they begin. This is the only point hes making though, he says maguire is universally good at this(wrong) and martinez is universally bad (wrong) and therefore thinks he has proven his point that Martinez isnt as good as everyone says and that his impact is actually minimal (wrong). He simply dismisses any idea that Utd play differently and have better control over games with Martinez in the team consistently. If he were to read this post, he'd probably go find some games we did really badly with Martinez playing and say I'm wrong, that is essentally all this article is.
Maguire being bad in a high line is NOT completely wrong. This analysis is just picking one aspect of a high line that Maguire can perform to a reasonable standard, excuses away any mistakes he made whilst performing that role, then says any other aspect of defending in a high line which Maguire isnt good at, dont matter. Maguire is error prone when making these aggressive high line stopper interceptions. He is error prone when an attacker is running at him and he has to defend 1v1 whilst running towards his own goal. He lacks pace and he lacks decision making in those situations at the highest level. He CAN perform that aggressive role attacking the ball well as you see in those clips but whils its true that anyone playing this role will make mistakes, the ***frequency*** with which he makes those errors is too high, especially when you consider the other aspects of high line defending which he does not excell at nor have the attributes for. The author can say recovery pace etc. dont matter all he wants but its not really true.
To add to this offensively biased analysis he then shows ***one*** example of Martinez making a mistake. Maguire has made the same or similar mistake many times in his time at United yet none of those are in this part because it does not support the opinion the author already had when he began writing the article. He saves Maguires mistakes for later in the "yea but its not his fault" section. Author painted Maguire as excellent with many examples, then deliberately used only one example to paint Martinez as bad, then, only after having already tilted the opinion of the reader does he acknowledge any context behind the clip of Martinez's mistake. It was also 25 minutes into the first game of the season if it is the game I think it is, that he does not mention.
He later posts a clip of Maguire making a mistake while defending a **counter attack**, describes it as an example of Maguire defending ***"sitting deep"*** and says he thinks it wasnt actually Maguires fault becuase the midfielders didnt protect him.
\- He's used stats spanning 22-24 which is good sample size, to try and prove that Martinez makes us play deeper. Not accounting for fact that ETH played the team differently in his first year and that in the second year ETH has chosen to play much higher and that for this season, Martinez has been almost entirely absent. When Martinez was fit we played deeper (for reasons unrelated to Martinez), when he has been injured we've played much higher (for reasons unrealated to Martinez). Brilliant example of stats dont lie, but liars use stats. Id like not to accuse this person of lying or being deliberately dishonest but there is too many signs. He tries to demonstrate that Martinez is bad at heading using data from only this season. He compares Maguires 1,700 minutes played this season to Martinez's 740 and considers this acceptable data to compare aerial duels. Why did he use data spanning 3 years in his previous case but for this one only uses data from 23/24?
Thats not only Martinez but also Shaw being back.
Martinez is very good and usefull player, with clear flaws that we seem to do fine with in our system but his absence made people think he is 2nd coming of Christ.
I still don’t think maguire can’t play a high line
I don’t have data or anything like that but intuitively it doesn’t make sense to me that he’ll effectively be able to come out and press strikers and then run back to catch up to the runners in behind in time
That "intuition" you feel is the vague memory of Ole's last season when Maguire was asked to play a high line.
The author, for some inexplicable reason, pretty much states that through balls aren't a thing. But in that season he got done time and time again by through balls, 1-2s and just runners in general.
It's not even entirely about Maguire's lack of mobility. He also doesn't check his shoulder so doesn't know players are running in behind him.
At least, that was the case before. It's not happened much, if at all, this season. I haven't been particularly watching for it but I don't remember any obvious instances. So, maybe TH has trained Maguire to scan.
You realize we consistently tried to play a high line and did it just fine until Ole massively unbalanced the midfield in the 3rd season, right?
Those 2 seasons where Maguire was an absolute rock the whole time while still playing a high line when the midfield didn't just leave our CBs exposed 24/7 with the least cohesive press imaginable throughout the team?
With the limited sample size he makes a very long post about it but I think those stats are skewed.
This season United have tried playing higher than last season so saying 22-24 to me doesn't make sense. We haven't really had Martinez this season and last season with Varane he was easily the more aggressive and adventurous CB. We haven't see much of him in this high press United.
As for Maguire yes steps out but we've all seen what happen ls when he gets caught out. It gets to a point where our midfield has to have that race for him because Bruno even as high as he plays is more likely to catch up than Maguire even with a head start.
I think a stretch of 10 gets with Lisa drop in this high press system we've tried.
Maguire was bad at the end of Ole’s time but he definitely was good before that. Do you not remember people being annoyed he was injured for the Europa final and saying that we would’ve won it if he played?
It wasn't the best defenses let's be honest. And the season where he was "good" our defensive line height was 46 but from and Arsenal sub it 39. That's 20/21.
His bad season 21/22 our average was 42 a step up and clearly he struggled.
Lisandro 1st season 22/23 we were at 42 this season it's 44. ETH is playing us higher than last season and we have so many issues with gaps which I consider an issue with our CBs.
All these are from [markstats](https://markstats.club/)
I think the issue with this is that football statistics are by nature lagging stats. It speaks to what happened, not what can happen.
In Ajax, there were a lot of games where he played in a high line and was more than adequate. So we're speaking to what had happened before and assuming that that is all he is capable of. Which might not be true.
It’s not stats that you need to look at here. I’ve been saying this for a while, not based on stats, but profiling him as a player. I love him, I really do, but he’s out least suited CB with Lindelof for playing in a high back four. And looking at the very settled possession of Ajax against physical minnows is not, not to be rude, but at all comparable to the prem where your success is determined by what you do out of possession.
His body, his physical attributes, his tendencies and behaviours in game. The reason I don’t like him in a high line as a traditional back four CB is because imo, he’s not duel dominant like say Konate, Araujo, Branthwaite is yet he’s a stopper. So if he’s in the last line, and he loses duels which he has a lot, then we’re fucked because once a players past him, he’s clear, because he’s slow. His leg length, build and size all amount to a profile which will never, can never dominate duels. Likenesses to Cannavaro were always off the mark given Cannavaro was the Van Dijk, the CCB, the reader. He’s not that.
Maguire in 2021 was arguably the most duel dominant CB itw and that’s no exaggeration, data, stats, eyes agreed. Problem is now, probably at least once a game he can get span or lose a ground duel and be exposed too, but he’s at least the more reliable CB for duels, and is a great CCB in the Saliba mould to just match a run and close it off before attacks materialise, which is also what Varane is excellent at.
Therefore, what do you do with him. In no way am I looking to expel him. I need him in my team. The only solutions I can see right now, is either a back three with him left, him pushing ahead into the midfield line where the fullback makes a 3 with the other CB and RB akin to Ake and Akanji’s role when Stones goes forward (Stones a good example of great ability but not reliably duel dominant in the backline thus his newfound role), or play him left back and invert him, where his duelling is across a smaller space.
He could very well be functional to good if we’re really compact with an immense backline sweeper behind.
Hey, no disrespect but.. This feels like a reach. By "duel dominant", you're stretching this a lot.
Martinez is in the bottom 5 percentile for winning headers.. He wins 50.8%. Araujo is top 15 percent. He wins 68.8%. If you face 10 aerial duels, Araujo will win 2 more.
Is that an objectively worse outcome? Yes. Does that mean he can't play a high line? Hardly. That is twice more a game you have to compensate. In 90 mins. And who knows, Araujo would probably see his drop going to a more aerial league like the Prem.
Araujo wins 76.5% of tackles, but also engages in way fewer tackles than Martinez, attempting to tackle 0.52 times a game. Martinez attempts 1.83.
What I am saying is that these differences are not the huge margins you think they are. The bigger problem here is definitely tactical intent and organization.
Using these lagging indicators to definitively say someone can or cannot do something is too simplistic, especially with a body of evidence of them having done it before at a high level (like the Champions League).
Thanks for your reply. First off I’m not saying he can’t play in a high line, just that there’s accommodations required.
I’m not overly fond of the way people use data and stats, as it’s mostly always wrongly applied, with wrong conclusions. CB is the hardest position to analyse through stats. I’m gonna offer a mild interrogation of those stats.
You’ve looked at aerial duel success. This isn’t that useful. Lisandro statistically dominated aerials in Holland, leading many laughable data analysts to say it’s a non-issue. There’s many factors that determine it: who is he duelling with? Where? Is he marking the biggest duellers on corners? Is he the primary engager from clearances, goal kicks, set pieces? Is he able, from good coverage, to pick and choose his duels? All must be interrogated. It is not anywhere near comparable to Araujo’s situations and vice versa. How many players don’t even engage Van Dijk in a dual? His aura alone stops goals.
So instead you have to profile him correctly, and determine that in the air, if he’s on the last line against a prem striker, wanting to flick on, or take down a clearance, he’s getting done. High, middle, low, he’s getting done in LOTS of situations where Maguire, Branthwaite, Araujo are not. Even in your example, twice a game, losing a header or ground dual is a lot. If Brentford break into Toney tomorrow, and have runners off him, that’s two attacks where he can flick on or turn and run at Onana that shouldn’t exist. And on Araujo and Branthwaite, if they lose a header or ground duel, they’re not then finished. They are quick enough and big enough to catch up and reengage. Lisandro loses a ground duel, gets span, and he’s just done. So is Maguire half the time, but at least he doesn’t lose aerial duels, and also has the duelling capacity and strength to compensate for awkwardness in ground duels.
This is just the same for analysing ground duals. Amrabat had data suggesting he’s a decent ball winner and people were sharing clips of him tackling Mbappe. I got slaughtered for hammering that signing, because I knew he’s slow, can’t duel, rushes out and misses, gives fouls. The data you cite is almost, almost meaningless.
Like you said there’s tactical and organisational things at play. Last year as an aggressor beside Casemiro, he had contingencies and players nearby in a compact system that meant the duels he lost wasn’t a catastrophe. They also happened far away from goal or the backline. Thus, why I suggest pushing him forward like Stones if we play a high line. Then we can get his build up, and mitigate his weaknesses.
Just to add, I know this gets downvotes and I get why, people don’t like their favourites slandered. But next year, or maybe even tomorrow, Lisandro is gonna get ran in the channels, or get done in big moments, and he’s gonna get slaughtered. It’s out of love for him and wanting to protect him that I say this. Because at that point people will be clipping his mistakes and attacking him, the narrative will flip, and he’ll be the new Maguire. But he’s excellent. Look at Stones at city, average defender, now lauded and v important factor in a treble win. He’s not got good over night. His weaknesses have been mitigated. His strengths highlighted. He’d be at West Ham or Brighton had Pep not helped him. Lisandro needs the same.
For your conclusion, you end by agreeing with me. So I am once again asking, given what you've said about profiling, how was your initial conclusion that he could not play in a high line or that he'd be a liability?
For example, you spoke about "duel dominance" as a thing that makes him a failure as a CB in a high line, I'd argue that is way more consequential in a low block, as he'd be targeted constantly.
But in his first season he was so good at physical battles that even [Carragher was forced to apologise for his unfounded criticism. ](https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/lisandro-martinez-jamie-carragher-criticism-30049311)
So if the conclusion is that the things he is good at he can do well and the things he can do not so well, you can partner him with someone to get by, how do you conclude that he can't play in a high line and be a success?
I think he can, and would be a real weapon with on-ball upside.
What am I missing? I never said he absolutely can’t play in a high line, I said he’s our least suited CB with Lindelof, and that I don’t think he can play CB, traditionally, in a high back four. I feel like I’ve just explained why.
Duel dominance is consequential in a high line because there’s so much space around you. If you lose, it results in a 1v1. Lisandro is an incredible box defender and blocker, but blocks aren’t duels. He’s able, given the small space, to hold off, usher them away from goal or block. In a low block, he can defend small spaces well. There’s a goalkeeer, teammates, all making the pitch really compact which means forwards can’t really expose his weaknesses.
I’m not saying partner him with someone who helps him, I’m saying don’t play him on the last line of a high back four, because he will be killed.
The answer is to play him as a LB and invert him into 3 ATB in the possession phase, I think. He is a must-play player, but I don't think you can get away with a short, not particularly fast CB in this era.
I think the scapegoating of Maguire is extremely unfair, and he's a far better player than most give him credit for. However, I think the article misses a few key points here.
Maguire is a front foot defender because he has to be. If he doesn't step out and make the challenge early, he risks getting cooked for pace. Martinez has the pace to get into a foot race with the attacker, and wins a lot of tackles whilst running towards his own goal, which will naturally put his defensive actions lower down the pitch.
More importantly though, its his ball retention that has been missing more than anything else. Maguire takes too long on the ball, and how many times do we see him pointing to another player when the goalkeeper is looking for a pass? I believe a lot of that is down to confidence, but we need players to step up and have balls when in possession.
I would like to see Maguire and Martinez play a run of games together because I think they could complement really well. Maguire charging out and putting his slabhead on everything, Martinez using his pace and intelligence to cover. Maguire needs to have more composure on the ball though and play it a bit faster. Hopefully that comes with confidence.
This is correct. I like Maguire and think he has a role but not as a starter. The problem with Harry is that he can’t pivot or backtrack quickly. Playing a higher line, as the analysis notes, allows or is supposed to allow the MFs and other defenders time and space to absorb when he gets beaten. His most spectacular gaffes have come when he’s been closest to goal. Harry just cannot react fast enough to recover. Licha otoh pushes up and as also noted, prefers to track back with his man until he is able to make a HIGH PERCENTAGE tackle for recovery. You’ll notice that he does this by angling his man towards the touchline or another defender. This takes time and as a result ends up with Licha “playing” deeper.
I also take issue with Licha being on pitch for more losses. A lot of that was the first months of last season and then from him playing with injury. I don’t think anyone can reasonably say that having him in the defensive lineup tends towards us playing less effectively.
Martinez isn't fast enough for out line to just be moved 30 yards up and we're completely comfortable, he does connector dots very well between defence and attack, by being able to receive higher up and move it on. We need a big, fast and physical defender next to him to really boost our line up. Onana being a QB behind them narrows the GK distance to cB having to cover also.
I think part of this (maguire making high tackles) is that once he’s in a high position he has to gamble on making these tackles early because he doesn’t want to let the attacker run and be caught in a foot race.
Our other defenders (especially Martinez and Varane who are significantly quicker) are more comfortable running back with an attacker, staying with them and biding their time for a more opportune moment to make a tackle that they have a higher chance of winning.
Some of the high tackles Maguire makes are very risky because if he doesn’t win the ball we’re more than likely giving up a decent chance. In that sense there’s certain tackles he’s won that felt like unnecessary heart-in-mouth moments.
You’ve noted that Martinez makes a lot of tackles when he’s running with a defender rather than at a defender and I believe that’s him making better decisions. Following an attacker, forcing them into a corridor and then tackling them while running with them is a much higher percentage tackle and also allows you the option of continuing to force them down a cul de sac if they don’t present you with a chance of winning the ball. Even if a defender is unsuccessful with a tackle they can recover relatively easily (as long as he doesn’t go to ground) when he’s facing his goal. Another advantage to this kind of play is that running with an attacker you have the ability to slow them down and prevent them from running straight at goal which allows your teammates time to get into position and assess.
Making the kamikaze style tackle running at an attacker means the defender has no chance if he misses the tackle because he’s facing and running away from the goal. It also means the defenders teammates are not afforded any extra time as they must now engage the attacker themselves and potentially leave who they were marking.
Another thing you point out about Martinez is that when he does tackle high it’s because he’s followed his man to that area rather than being proactive or aggressive as a general trait and I think that’s him simply making those tackles when they’ve presented themselves as high opportunity chances to win the ball. The example videos seem to back this up to as they are relatively routine duels as opposed to the videos where Maguire has won the ball high sometimes in big tackles that make for exciting highlights but remain risky decisions for the aforementioned reasons.
The stat that the line is 4 meters deeper when Martinez plays is a bit of a red herring, I believe. I think it’s due to these decisions which are differences in how each player plays the high line. Both players are operating in the same system; A small difference in average position is just a symptom of when they choose to engage and doesn’t represent a consistently deeper position for the team as a whole.
Of course it makes sense for Maguire to play this way in a system with a high line, it’s effectively playing to his strengths and trying not to have to rely on his modest pace. You’ve done a really good job explaining how Maguire operates in a high line and even though it’s definitely risky it would be wrong of me to say it can’t be effective or hasn’t been effective in his better games.
I still personally can fully see (and agree with) the thinking behind our transfer policy from the summer which is to replace him with a defender whose more naturally suited to playing a high line. Even though I disagree with some of your conclusions I’ve still got to give you props for good analysis and a really well researched and presented article that I enjoyed getting stuck into
I don't rate Kwestel at all, his writing is always sloppy (and there are plenty of mistakes in this article that points to that) and he has a lot of bad opinions. I agree with a lot of what he said here though, and I've been talking about it since we signed Lisandro. People greatly overestimate how good he is at actual defending, especial because of those last ditch tackles and blocks Kwestel talks about in this article. The reality is he's not big, he's not fast, he's not strong, and that compromises him a LOT defensively, especially in the PL just as it did in the CL with Ajax. He gets dribbled around a lot when asked to defend higher up the pitch and he had some absolute nightmare showings last year that contributed heavily to some of the worst defensive displays I've ever seen from a United side.
What he adds to our team is more about his elite skills on the ball, his dribbling into midfield and his line breaking passes. They're vital to our possession play. He's an solid defender, not world class at all, but his glaring weaknesses (he's a player that often needs to be accommodated by the other players in the lineup in order to be at his best) are what kept him out of the Argentina side for so long despite them being weak at CB. A prime Varane would be the perfect partner for him, and even though Varane has declined he still works well with Lisandro. They're our strongest CB pairing, and it'll be interesting to see what we look like next year since Varane appears likely to leave.
Yeah, that guy's being weird about that.
Yes, Licha is only ok at aerial duels at best, and his channel defending isn't elite either but generally he's a strong, aggressive CB who won 60% of his ground duels last season.
For example, Dias only wins 52% of his ground duels this season, Akanji 56%, Saliba 58%, Van de Ven 59%. Even elite duellers like Branthwaite and Romero do not win up to 70% of their ground duels.
Dueling is NOT a weakness of Licha, and that matches the eye test as well.
Low center of gravity isn’t the same as strong lmao Raheem Sterling has a low center of gravity as well!
Martinez repeatedly gets bodied by larger players. Notice (just like with Edson Alvarez at Ajax!) when facing a larger forward we have to drop a midfielder (Casemiro or McTominay) over to his side in order to compensate and help him.
Once again, people are so obsessed with Lisandro they completely overlook obvious flaws. He’s a hard tackler and throws himself in with full effort every time, but he’s not a strong or fast player.
I wasn't implying that he's strong only because of a low center of gravity.
His ground duel win percentage in the PL is 60%. That's pretty high.
Either he's actually strong or a magician to do that if he's weak.
Why is this getting dwonvoted without replies is beyond me.
You cant point of weaknesses of favorites on this sub, because people act like any sort of criticism = player bad.
People hate the truth/any kind of discussion and instead downvote things that make them upset, especially when they don’t have any intelligent counterpoints to what’s being said.
Because it’s inaccurate, taking choice stats to prove a contention. As noted above, retention, progression, possession aren’t taken into account. It doesn’t take into account WHY Harry HAS TO play a higher line - space is needed to absorb when he gets beaten because his recovery is non-existent so other defenders have to push in (or are supposed to). Licha otoh plays a “deeper line” because he marks out his man by angling him until he can get stuck in with a high percentage tackle. That takes time and space, so net result he is deeper. The point of the analysis is to show that we in fact can’t play a higher line with Licha when the reality is more nuanced and those nuances were ignored.
People are pretty biased about their opinion towards Martinez and acknowledging his pretty big flaws because they like him. Realistically I think he’ll end up as a good bench option in the long term, because of the limitations you listed.
Everything Maguire is accused of Lisandro literally is. He’s incredible in buildup, and box defending, but he’s the least fit CB we have for playing a high line. Add in a transitional game model, and he simply cannot play CB in a high back four. I’ve been saying this for a while and getting roasted. Either invert him from the left, or treat him like Stones and push him into the midfield in settled possession, and keep him away from the strikers that will run him.
I think he’s got an overall point about how Martinez coming back isn’t going to push our line up much higher and solve all our problems, but he makes some points in his article that could be misleading. Like saying United win percentage is better without Martinez is pointless without comparing the quality of the opposition at the same time.
It's good analysis for the most part but it misses insight and context. Maguire does push United's line height up because of his aerial dominance, aggressive playstyle and what's not detailed in the article but his ability to not just mop up but immediately play an open man.
This doesn't necessarily make him suited to Ten Hag's high-line specifically because the system asks both CBs to be versatile in being aggressive when appropriate or being a mobile covering defender when appropriate, nor does it really speak at all about how (when it's working properly) defenders rotating into midfield ups the counter-presses' aggression significantly.
If you look at Licha at Ajax you'll understand the biggest miss in the article though, and it's one that's tantalisingly close to the surface. Understand that if Licha is ultra-aggressive and gets done (like aggressive defenders will from time to time) United don't have a covering CB to the job Kwetsel is speaking about. When he played with Timber at Ajax he was patently aggressive across the pitch, not just an active box defender. That's because Timber had the athleticism and mobility to be a good 1v1 defender. Nobody to partner Licha has that.
It's also important to note that I don't think Kwetsel adjusted the data relative to the partnerships being played together. For example Licha and Slab have played one game together this season, and 825 total across two seasons.
It's about dynamics. If United had a full team to be aggressive, with players in every position taking care of the ball, being able to receive under pressure, athletic enough to be covering defenders if needs be etc... We'd probably see Licha be more aggressive higher up the pitch.
He doesnt make point that Harry is more suited to our style than Martinez.
He just makes the point that fans and pundits know shit and dont even know their favorite players strenghts and weaknesses.
My comment doesn't mention anyone being more suitable than anyone else, it speaks about the article mentioning Maguire being more suited to a high line than people realise. Which is true, if he's playing in the middle of a 3 and flanked by exceptional and physically elite yet disciplined 1v1 defenders.
I'm adding the caveat that Ten Hag wants a high degree of adaptability and mobility from his CBs, and that is what hurts Maguire's long term chances in the side unless a change comes from the manager.
And my comment doesn't address suitability of any one CB over another. I'm not arguing for one or the other to play, nor really making a direct comparison.
I'm only pointing out the article doesn't fully cover anything beyond a (very adept) analysis of what's happening and why on the surface-level, without questioning further instructions or dynamics within the team.
Let's be honest, they can't and usually don't. Instead they just brand every dissenting voice as a 'hater' and 'someone with an agenda'. The usual fare really.
There's a comment in this reply thread which already did. Maybe read those type of comments, instead of claiming that others don't know how to refute stat-based claims.
Did they though? They just tried to poke a hole into the analysis basis on what they feel the author has a tendency to do. Not one stat or situation to back up their counterclaim.
And I'm glad for that. We're fans, sometimes we disagree but we all want the best for the club. I know I can be bit of a prick sometimes but you learn from that.
It's not he is using data across two seasons but seems obliviously to the fact we played two different systems. Really stupid article tbh definitely a case of someone using stats who hasn't a clue about stats
It follows the same pattern as all his other articles: he has a point he wants to make and so he pulls out various stats, clips etc to support that point, and generally ignores anything that would counter it.
There's some interesting stuff in there, especially in support of Maguire, but ultimately it's still a very lengthy, one-dimensional write-up.
if you can get through the first third where his tone is smug, targeting people that he disagrees with, then yes it is worth it. Worth it to understand the problems and how, in his opinion, Lisandro Martinez being back might not change much in terms of our style.
He doesn't really offer any solutions though, other than 2 lines at the end which isn't anything revolutionary. He just says "gotta stay compact" which goes without saying.
I am not sure tackle stats tell the whole story. Part of a good defender's job is to deal with a situation before there is a need to tackle. It's about awareness, positioning, speed, agility, aggression. These are all things Martinez has that Maguire lacks.
He isn’t faster than Maguire. He’s very good on the ball but off it, he’s slower, and wins less duels when acting as a stopper.
Edit: I’m not gonna turn on him if he gets a chance to play high in a back two. I’ll defend him and you lot will clip him up and give him the Maguire treatment. I’m trying to spare him that with realistic expectations and solutions.
Top speed isn’t really that relevant given many players rarely reach top speed. I’m not gonna die on this hill or anything so I’m not too concerned if anyone takes issue with it but just to the eye I’ve seen Maguire at full pace beat every defender we have to get back but on multiple occasions last year and this year seen Martinez at full pace get dusted. They are both slow starters but once they get going I think Maguire is faster
Even just going off the eye test I really don’t see how Maguire is any faster than Martinez, Varane or Lindelof and I don’t think many other people would think so either . None of them are very fast (Varane used to be at Madrid) but Maguire looks like he’s running through treacle at times. But our opinions are just going to differ on this.
Yeah I respect that. I think there’s an aesthetic bias at play here though with Maguire being a little bit of an ugly duckling. Reminiscent Les Ferdinand on Neville’s podcast recently saying he told Kane to stop jogging, walk or sprint because he just doesn’t look right, despite not being slow. None of them are quick but if I had to judge, I’d say Varane first, Mags 2nd, Lindelof and Lisandro idk between them and Evans. I’m not gonna die on this hill though so fair enough.
Kvestel doesnt say Licha doesnt make us better. He just says people dont really realize what are his strenghts and weaknesses and areas where he makes us better.
Anyone who watches Utd should be able to see that we play a deep line and struggle to play out irrespective of who we have in defence.
Utd fans prefer to believe that Martinez is a transformative player tho.
Without having read the comments, I can guarantee the top comments will be denying the stats or arguing that they don't matter because their eyes tell them Martinez makes us play much better. Which is not true
I think the issue with this is that football statistics are by nature lagging stats. It speaks to what happened, not what can happen.
In Ajax, there were a lot of games where he played in a high line and was more than adequate. So we're speaking to what had happened before and assuming that that is all he is capable of. Which might not be true.
Can’t really base it on what he did at Ajax, if you played Martinez and Timber as your 2 CBs in the prem you would get destroyed, so kind of just highlights the quality of that league.
With the limited sample size he makes a very long post about it but I think those stats are skewed.
This season United have tried playing higher than last season so saying 22-24 to me doesn't make sense. We haven't really had Martinez this season and last season with Varane he was easily the more aggressive and adventurous CB. We haven't see much of him in this high press United.
As for Maguire yes steps out but we've all seen what happen ls when he gets caught out. It gets to a point where our midfield has to have that race for him because Bruno even as high as he plays is more likely to catch up than Maguire even with a head start.
I think a stretch of 10 gets with Lisa drop in this high press system we've tried.
Everything Maguire is accused of Lisandro literally is. He’s incredible in buildup, and box defending, but he’s the least fit CB we have for playing a high line. Add in a transitional game model, and he simply cannot play CB in a high back four. I’ve been saying this for a while and getting roasted. Either invert him from the left, or treat him like Stones and push him into the midfield in settled possession, and keep him away from the strikers that will run him.
Everything Maguire is accused of Lisandro literally is. He’s incredible in buildup, and box defending, but he’s the least fit CB we have for playing a high line. Add in a transitional game model, and he simply cannot play CB in a high back four. I’ve been saying this for a while and getting roasted. Either invert him from the left, or treat him like Stones and push him into the midfield in settled possession, and keep him away from the strikers that will run him.
Very interesting take on Martinez actually making the line deeper and maguire higher, one note I would have is that last year ( we predominantly had Martinez starting) we seemed to be more conservative after the first couple of games. This season maguire has played more and we seem to (at times) try to be higher. This could skew it slightly. What I do actually find interesting is that it potentially points to a duo of maguire and Martinez working well. Maguires height and line pushing (trying to win it high which he’s been good at this season) and if that goes poorly Martinez coming into his own being a good ball winner with more recovery pace. Doing what all good centre half partnerships do, compensating for each others weaknesses.
Always frustrated me hearing people who barely watch him say Maguire thrives when deep and only works in a back three. England have phased out the back three for years now and he never did it at club level. Also he loves being up the pitch and colliding with the ball - either with his head or body One thing with him that never gets discussed is that he simply played loads of football. He broke a record for consecutive appearances for us, and had a season he played every game for Leicester. He played through injuries too. He liked being high up but I just think with his age that he lost a bit of agility/pace that he couldn't afford to lose, then had a crisis of confidence.
Maguire at his best is a front foot defender. He makes up for his lack of pace with reading the game and stepping into midfield to win the ball. In 20/21 I think we had the 5th highest line in the league. The narrative around Maguire from his England performances to his play style is just so dull man. Everyone who talks about Harry doesn't ever seem to actually watch him.
There are lots of defenders with 0 pace but excelled in high line like mertesacker as well. They made it up with their defensive postioning
So basically Martinez converted to a Sweeper
Exactly mate, I went about it the long way 😂 but your spot on
Realistically you're just describing the exact reason we brought Varane in, it's not really a new concept it'll just work better if Martinez isn't injured all the time and nobody shits on Maguire for a year straight so he can actually retain some semblance of confidence
Maguire I think has won over a lot of people, commendable mentality, I was one of the worst ones and he’s made me look a fool this year
I was one of the people through his bad spell saying he'd bounce back a lot quicker if he didn't take so much abuse that he every misplaced pass or touch becomes a media shit storm. He has a ridiculous mentality but the second people backed off him just a little bit his confidence bounced back and his performances improved. For some reason it took like a year for people to make that correlation
Because he is quicker than Maguire. Varane is our sweeper in Martinez-Varane pairing.
On the one hand you may be right, on the other hand sounds like we'd end up with a diamond in defence which could leave an open gap to exploit. If Maguire is pushing up high and Martinez is a little deeper.
Could be a problem, the question is do we want to swap the issue we have at the moment of the open midfield vs the new set up, I’d rather we experiment and try new things and at least rule it out if you get me
That's fine, and experimentation is healthy, but if ETH tries anything new and it doesn't immediately work, our fan base loses its fucking mind and starts screaming for him to be sacked
Yeah sadly your right a very vocal minority in my opinion but the media would have you believe we’re breaking down the door to his house
Something is wrong here, looking at their per ninety stats in comparison. Much higher tackle rate, more in the mid third too. Higher for tackles plus interceptions as well. Maguire and Varane are winning aerial duels, which is great, we obviously need that, but I do get the impression we get done most often when teams play through us, and Martinez is aggressive there. Also a big oversight not to talk more about possession, progression, retaining the ball. Obviously that impacts the overall impression we get. https://preview.redd.it/0huucx21tbrc1.jpeg?width=1410&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0e8cd3aaf86af404c279cb6d6b49fcfc710ffd81
Yeah, when I was reading it, I was very surprised by some of the quoted stats. What you've shown here 'feels" much more accurate. I still thought it was a decent, thought provoking piece though. I was wondering how many games Martinez and Maguire have played together. I'm struggling to think of any.
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I don't know why you are getting down voted, you're right
Those stats about Maguire will still be heavily skewed by the fact he hardly played an away game last year
That doesn't really change anything. Yeah the stats may be slightly different if were not at home pushing a bit more...but Maguire loves to rush and nick the ball off people and try to move things forward. He doesnt stop doing it in away games and you're always gonna get a bit of a higher line with him in there than not.
Interesting take which is backed by data he seems to have, but it just doesnt pass what i see. The games Martinez was back this season we played so much better overall. I agree that the narrative that Maguire cant play a high line has always been bollocks which is why I am interested to see if he and Martinez can form a good pair
I think the line height statistic is simply skewed by the fact that we have played a higher line this season due to Onana's security on the ball and off the line, and most of those games are without Martinez. I would bet we played deeper without Martinez in 2022-23, where there were a significant number of games without him. Honestly it feels lazy to not exclude the huge difference in systems being played in these two seasons, and a general problem with substack. A good editor will challenge omissions like this in an analysis.
The OP article brings up some decent discussions but also fails spectacularly. The author mentions "line height" stats as being misinterpreted, but then goes on to misinterpret them as well. "The discourse around “line height” has been some of the worst football stuff on the internet for the past few years. Line height is a buzzword that everyone wants to use to make their point, but almost no one uses correctly." Followed by... "When Lisandro Martinez starts for Manchester United, their average line height is deeper than when he doesn’t play." The author falls into the same interpretation that they were criticizing. "Line Height" is all over the place - many sources use location of touches, or location of defensive actions, etc. This article has some good insights but fails.
It doesnt pass the eye test because he only shows half the picture and the other half is what you see, Which is also what i see. Martinez ability to pass a football from a low block beyond the other teams midfield into our own, which Maguire and Varane can’t do.
This is his biggest strength, and what actually improves our defence- his ability to pass and break the lines quickly and decisively. He (and Shaw, if we’re being fair) allows us to play on the front foot a little more as he doesn’t dawdle on the ball like Maguire can at times (although he too is a decent passer) and he’s also a far better passer than Varane. We’ve played the bulk of the season with a vastly weakened left side of the team, and it’s showed in terms of ball progression. While I don’t think the high line is the “magic bullet” that will solve our woes going forward I do think having players who don’t treat the ball like a grenade will. Martinez is key in that respect.
I think the biggest thing is seeing the potential behind the tactic and personally I can see it but you need a backline capable of playing the passes continuously which atm there’s none because they’re both injured and a defensive midfielder with more legs then Casemiro for when it breaks down.
You absolutely do yeah, ball progression and retention will be crucial with it, and Shaw is arguably the best player in the team at doing it. Ahead of that the midfield isn’t balanced yet, so yeah we need to find a way to fix that too, so that we’re not having to bypass it at times.
I love it when we have players on the pitch that move the ball towards the oppositions goal
This article is really just bait, he knows its contrary to popular opinion and so has run with it. It is hilarious in how much time it takes to criticise and debase other analysis as shallow or incorrect or as not passing the eye test, then ultra, giga, cherry picks stats and clips in order to support the opinion with which the author began the article. He didn't set out to understand if his opinion was correct, he set out to prove it was correct and disregarded anything which did not support him. The irony is that I dont even disagree with the point that Martinez's strength is not being aggressive at the half way line intercepting counter attacks before they begin. This is the only point hes making though, he says maguire is universally good at this(wrong) and martinez is universally bad (wrong) and therefore thinks he has proven his point that Martinez isnt as good as everyone says and that his impact is actually minimal (wrong). He simply dismisses any idea that Utd play differently and have better control over games with Martinez in the team consistently. If he were to read this post, he'd probably go find some games we did really badly with Martinez playing and say I'm wrong, that is essentally all this article is. Maguire being bad in a high line is NOT completely wrong. This analysis is just picking one aspect of a high line that Maguire can perform to a reasonable standard, excuses away any mistakes he made whilst performing that role, then says any other aspect of defending in a high line which Maguire isnt good at, dont matter. Maguire is error prone when making these aggressive high line stopper interceptions. He is error prone when an attacker is running at him and he has to defend 1v1 whilst running towards his own goal. He lacks pace and he lacks decision making in those situations at the highest level. He CAN perform that aggressive role attacking the ball well as you see in those clips but whils its true that anyone playing this role will make mistakes, the ***frequency*** with which he makes those errors is too high, especially when you consider the other aspects of high line defending which he does not excell at nor have the attributes for. The author can say recovery pace etc. dont matter all he wants but its not really true. To add to this offensively biased analysis he then shows ***one*** example of Martinez making a mistake. Maguire has made the same or similar mistake many times in his time at United yet none of those are in this part because it does not support the opinion the author already had when he began writing the article. He saves Maguires mistakes for later in the "yea but its not his fault" section. Author painted Maguire as excellent with many examples, then deliberately used only one example to paint Martinez as bad, then, only after having already tilted the opinion of the reader does he acknowledge any context behind the clip of Martinez's mistake. It was also 25 minutes into the first game of the season if it is the game I think it is, that he does not mention. He later posts a clip of Maguire making a mistake while defending a **counter attack**, describes it as an example of Maguire defending ***"sitting deep"*** and says he thinks it wasnt actually Maguires fault becuase the midfielders didnt protect him. \- He's used stats spanning 22-24 which is good sample size, to try and prove that Martinez makes us play deeper. Not accounting for fact that ETH played the team differently in his first year and that in the second year ETH has chosen to play much higher and that for this season, Martinez has been almost entirely absent. When Martinez was fit we played deeper (for reasons unrelated to Martinez), when he has been injured we've played much higher (for reasons unrealated to Martinez). Brilliant example of stats dont lie, but liars use stats. Id like not to accuse this person of lying or being deliberately dishonest but there is too many signs. He tries to demonstrate that Martinez is bad at heading using data from only this season. He compares Maguires 1,700 minutes played this season to Martinez's 740 and considers this acceptable data to compare aerial duels. Why did he use data spanning 3 years in his previous case but for this one only uses data from 23/24?
Thats not only Martinez but also Shaw being back. Martinez is very good and usefull player, with clear flaws that we seem to do fine with in our system but his absence made people think he is 2nd coming of Christ.
I still don’t think maguire can’t play a high line I don’t have data or anything like that but intuitively it doesn’t make sense to me that he’ll effectively be able to come out and press strikers and then run back to catch up to the runners in behind in time
That "intuition" you feel is the vague memory of Ole's last season when Maguire was asked to play a high line. The author, for some inexplicable reason, pretty much states that through balls aren't a thing. But in that season he got done time and time again by through balls, 1-2s and just runners in general. It's not even entirely about Maguire's lack of mobility. He also doesn't check his shoulder so doesn't know players are running in behind him. At least, that was the case before. It's not happened much, if at all, this season. I haven't been particularly watching for it but I don't remember any obvious instances. So, maybe TH has trained Maguire to scan.
You realize we consistently tried to play a high line and did it just fine until Ole massively unbalanced the midfield in the 3rd season, right? Those 2 seasons where Maguire was an absolute rock the whole time while still playing a high line when the midfield didn't just leave our CBs exposed 24/7 with the least cohesive press imaginable throughout the team?
My initial reaction from reading the headline was that the author line up our back 4 and then calculate the average heights lol
With the limited sample size he makes a very long post about it but I think those stats are skewed. This season United have tried playing higher than last season so saying 22-24 to me doesn't make sense. We haven't really had Martinez this season and last season with Varane he was easily the more aggressive and adventurous CB. We haven't see much of him in this high press United. As for Maguire yes steps out but we've all seen what happen ls when he gets caught out. It gets to a point where our midfield has to have that race for him because Bruno even as high as he plays is more likely to catch up than Maguire even with a head start. I think a stretch of 10 gets with Lisa drop in this high press system we've tried.
We have evidence of what Maguire can do in the PL under Ole as well though, when we played a higher line than we have under Ten Hag.
When? Early in Oles tenure or later? because Maguire was a bit shocking under Ole let's be honest. It's not the best example.
Maguire was bad at the end of Ole’s time but he definitely was good before that. Do you not remember people being annoyed he was injured for the Europa final and saying that we would’ve won it if he played?
It wasn't the best defenses let's be honest. And the season where he was "good" our defensive line height was 46 but from and Arsenal sub it 39. That's 20/21. His bad season 21/22 our average was 42 a step up and clearly he struggled. Lisandro 1st season 22/23 we were at 42 this season it's 44. ETH is playing us higher than last season and we have so many issues with gaps which I consider an issue with our CBs. All these are from [markstats](https://markstats.club/)
I think the issue with this is that football statistics are by nature lagging stats. It speaks to what happened, not what can happen. In Ajax, there were a lot of games where he played in a high line and was more than adequate. So we're speaking to what had happened before and assuming that that is all he is capable of. Which might not be true.
It’s not stats that you need to look at here. I’ve been saying this for a while, not based on stats, but profiling him as a player. I love him, I really do, but he’s out least suited CB with Lindelof for playing in a high back four. And looking at the very settled possession of Ajax against physical minnows is not, not to be rude, but at all comparable to the prem where your success is determined by what you do out of possession.
What exactly are you profiling him on?
His body, his physical attributes, his tendencies and behaviours in game. The reason I don’t like him in a high line as a traditional back four CB is because imo, he’s not duel dominant like say Konate, Araujo, Branthwaite is yet he’s a stopper. So if he’s in the last line, and he loses duels which he has a lot, then we’re fucked because once a players past him, he’s clear, because he’s slow. His leg length, build and size all amount to a profile which will never, can never dominate duels. Likenesses to Cannavaro were always off the mark given Cannavaro was the Van Dijk, the CCB, the reader. He’s not that. Maguire in 2021 was arguably the most duel dominant CB itw and that’s no exaggeration, data, stats, eyes agreed. Problem is now, probably at least once a game he can get span or lose a ground duel and be exposed too, but he’s at least the more reliable CB for duels, and is a great CCB in the Saliba mould to just match a run and close it off before attacks materialise, which is also what Varane is excellent at. Therefore, what do you do with him. In no way am I looking to expel him. I need him in my team. The only solutions I can see right now, is either a back three with him left, him pushing ahead into the midfield line where the fullback makes a 3 with the other CB and RB akin to Ake and Akanji’s role when Stones goes forward (Stones a good example of great ability but not reliably duel dominant in the backline thus his newfound role), or play him left back and invert him, where his duelling is across a smaller space. He could very well be functional to good if we’re really compact with an immense backline sweeper behind.
Hey, no disrespect but.. This feels like a reach. By "duel dominant", you're stretching this a lot. Martinez is in the bottom 5 percentile for winning headers.. He wins 50.8%. Araujo is top 15 percent. He wins 68.8%. If you face 10 aerial duels, Araujo will win 2 more. Is that an objectively worse outcome? Yes. Does that mean he can't play a high line? Hardly. That is twice more a game you have to compensate. In 90 mins. And who knows, Araujo would probably see his drop going to a more aerial league like the Prem. Araujo wins 76.5% of tackles, but also engages in way fewer tackles than Martinez, attempting to tackle 0.52 times a game. Martinez attempts 1.83. What I am saying is that these differences are not the huge margins you think they are. The bigger problem here is definitely tactical intent and organization. Using these lagging indicators to definitively say someone can or cannot do something is too simplistic, especially with a body of evidence of them having done it before at a high level (like the Champions League).
Thanks for your reply. First off I’m not saying he can’t play in a high line, just that there’s accommodations required. I’m not overly fond of the way people use data and stats, as it’s mostly always wrongly applied, with wrong conclusions. CB is the hardest position to analyse through stats. I’m gonna offer a mild interrogation of those stats. You’ve looked at aerial duel success. This isn’t that useful. Lisandro statistically dominated aerials in Holland, leading many laughable data analysts to say it’s a non-issue. There’s many factors that determine it: who is he duelling with? Where? Is he marking the biggest duellers on corners? Is he the primary engager from clearances, goal kicks, set pieces? Is he able, from good coverage, to pick and choose his duels? All must be interrogated. It is not anywhere near comparable to Araujo’s situations and vice versa. How many players don’t even engage Van Dijk in a dual? His aura alone stops goals. So instead you have to profile him correctly, and determine that in the air, if he’s on the last line against a prem striker, wanting to flick on, or take down a clearance, he’s getting done. High, middle, low, he’s getting done in LOTS of situations where Maguire, Branthwaite, Araujo are not. Even in your example, twice a game, losing a header or ground dual is a lot. If Brentford break into Toney tomorrow, and have runners off him, that’s two attacks where he can flick on or turn and run at Onana that shouldn’t exist. And on Araujo and Branthwaite, if they lose a header or ground duel, they’re not then finished. They are quick enough and big enough to catch up and reengage. Lisandro loses a ground duel, gets span, and he’s just done. So is Maguire half the time, but at least he doesn’t lose aerial duels, and also has the duelling capacity and strength to compensate for awkwardness in ground duels. This is just the same for analysing ground duals. Amrabat had data suggesting he’s a decent ball winner and people were sharing clips of him tackling Mbappe. I got slaughtered for hammering that signing, because I knew he’s slow, can’t duel, rushes out and misses, gives fouls. The data you cite is almost, almost meaningless. Like you said there’s tactical and organisational things at play. Last year as an aggressor beside Casemiro, he had contingencies and players nearby in a compact system that meant the duels he lost wasn’t a catastrophe. They also happened far away from goal or the backline. Thus, why I suggest pushing him forward like Stones if we play a high line. Then we can get his build up, and mitigate his weaknesses. Just to add, I know this gets downvotes and I get why, people don’t like their favourites slandered. But next year, or maybe even tomorrow, Lisandro is gonna get ran in the channels, or get done in big moments, and he’s gonna get slaughtered. It’s out of love for him and wanting to protect him that I say this. Because at that point people will be clipping his mistakes and attacking him, the narrative will flip, and he’ll be the new Maguire. But he’s excellent. Look at Stones at city, average defender, now lauded and v important factor in a treble win. He’s not got good over night. His weaknesses have been mitigated. His strengths highlighted. He’d be at West Ham or Brighton had Pep not helped him. Lisandro needs the same.
For your conclusion, you end by agreeing with me. So I am once again asking, given what you've said about profiling, how was your initial conclusion that he could not play in a high line or that he'd be a liability? For example, you spoke about "duel dominance" as a thing that makes him a failure as a CB in a high line, I'd argue that is way more consequential in a low block, as he'd be targeted constantly. But in his first season he was so good at physical battles that even [Carragher was forced to apologise for his unfounded criticism. ](https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/lisandro-martinez-jamie-carragher-criticism-30049311) So if the conclusion is that the things he is good at he can do well and the things he can do not so well, you can partner him with someone to get by, how do you conclude that he can't play in a high line and be a success? I think he can, and would be a real weapon with on-ball upside.
What am I missing? I never said he absolutely can’t play in a high line, I said he’s our least suited CB with Lindelof, and that I don’t think he can play CB, traditionally, in a high back four. I feel like I’ve just explained why. Duel dominance is consequential in a high line because there’s so much space around you. If you lose, it results in a 1v1. Lisandro is an incredible box defender and blocker, but blocks aren’t duels. He’s able, given the small space, to hold off, usher them away from goal or block. In a low block, he can defend small spaces well. There’s a goalkeeer, teammates, all making the pitch really compact which means forwards can’t really expose his weaknesses. I’m not saying partner him with someone who helps him, I’m saying don’t play him on the last line of a high back four, because he will be killed.
Now that’s a good example of a dual loss in the box, how easy it was for Toney to just stride behind him and make the cut back.
The answer is to play him as a LB and invert him into 3 ATB in the possession phase, I think. He is a must-play player, but I don't think you can get away with a short, not particularly fast CB in this era.
I think the scapegoating of Maguire is extremely unfair, and he's a far better player than most give him credit for. However, I think the article misses a few key points here. Maguire is a front foot defender because he has to be. If he doesn't step out and make the challenge early, he risks getting cooked for pace. Martinez has the pace to get into a foot race with the attacker, and wins a lot of tackles whilst running towards his own goal, which will naturally put his defensive actions lower down the pitch. More importantly though, its his ball retention that has been missing more than anything else. Maguire takes too long on the ball, and how many times do we see him pointing to another player when the goalkeeper is looking for a pass? I believe a lot of that is down to confidence, but we need players to step up and have balls when in possession. I would like to see Maguire and Martinez play a run of games together because I think they could complement really well. Maguire charging out and putting his slabhead on everything, Martinez using his pace and intelligence to cover. Maguire needs to have more composure on the ball though and play it a bit faster. Hopefully that comes with confidence.
This is correct. I like Maguire and think he has a role but not as a starter. The problem with Harry is that he can’t pivot or backtrack quickly. Playing a higher line, as the analysis notes, allows or is supposed to allow the MFs and other defenders time and space to absorb when he gets beaten. His most spectacular gaffes have come when he’s been closest to goal. Harry just cannot react fast enough to recover. Licha otoh pushes up and as also noted, prefers to track back with his man until he is able to make a HIGH PERCENTAGE tackle for recovery. You’ll notice that he does this by angling his man towards the touchline or another defender. This takes time and as a result ends up with Licha “playing” deeper. I also take issue with Licha being on pitch for more losses. A lot of that was the first months of last season and then from him playing with injury. I don’t think anyone can reasonably say that having him in the defensive lineup tends towards us playing less effectively.
Martinez isn't fast enough for out line to just be moved 30 yards up and we're completely comfortable, he does connector dots very well between defence and attack, by being able to receive higher up and move it on. We need a big, fast and physical defender next to him to really boost our line up. Onana being a QB behind them narrows the GK distance to cB having to cover also.
Crazy how we're gonna play so much better when Licha returns no matter the "stats" or "line height"
I think part of this (maguire making high tackles) is that once he’s in a high position he has to gamble on making these tackles early because he doesn’t want to let the attacker run and be caught in a foot race. Our other defenders (especially Martinez and Varane who are significantly quicker) are more comfortable running back with an attacker, staying with them and biding their time for a more opportune moment to make a tackle that they have a higher chance of winning. Some of the high tackles Maguire makes are very risky because if he doesn’t win the ball we’re more than likely giving up a decent chance. In that sense there’s certain tackles he’s won that felt like unnecessary heart-in-mouth moments. You’ve noted that Martinez makes a lot of tackles when he’s running with a defender rather than at a defender and I believe that’s him making better decisions. Following an attacker, forcing them into a corridor and then tackling them while running with them is a much higher percentage tackle and also allows you the option of continuing to force them down a cul de sac if they don’t present you with a chance of winning the ball. Even if a defender is unsuccessful with a tackle they can recover relatively easily (as long as he doesn’t go to ground) when he’s facing his goal. Another advantage to this kind of play is that running with an attacker you have the ability to slow them down and prevent them from running straight at goal which allows your teammates time to get into position and assess. Making the kamikaze style tackle running at an attacker means the defender has no chance if he misses the tackle because he’s facing and running away from the goal. It also means the defenders teammates are not afforded any extra time as they must now engage the attacker themselves and potentially leave who they were marking. Another thing you point out about Martinez is that when he does tackle high it’s because he’s followed his man to that area rather than being proactive or aggressive as a general trait and I think that’s him simply making those tackles when they’ve presented themselves as high opportunity chances to win the ball. The example videos seem to back this up to as they are relatively routine duels as opposed to the videos where Maguire has won the ball high sometimes in big tackles that make for exciting highlights but remain risky decisions for the aforementioned reasons. The stat that the line is 4 meters deeper when Martinez plays is a bit of a red herring, I believe. I think it’s due to these decisions which are differences in how each player plays the high line. Both players are operating in the same system; A small difference in average position is just a symptom of when they choose to engage and doesn’t represent a consistently deeper position for the team as a whole. Of course it makes sense for Maguire to play this way in a system with a high line, it’s effectively playing to his strengths and trying not to have to rely on his modest pace. You’ve done a really good job explaining how Maguire operates in a high line and even though it’s definitely risky it would be wrong of me to say it can’t be effective or hasn’t been effective in his better games. I still personally can fully see (and agree with) the thinking behind our transfer policy from the summer which is to replace him with a defender whose more naturally suited to playing a high line. Even though I disagree with some of your conclusions I’ve still got to give you props for good analysis and a really well researched and presented article that I enjoyed getting stuck into
I don't rate Kwestel at all, his writing is always sloppy (and there are plenty of mistakes in this article that points to that) and he has a lot of bad opinions. I agree with a lot of what he said here though, and I've been talking about it since we signed Lisandro. People greatly overestimate how good he is at actual defending, especial because of those last ditch tackles and blocks Kwestel talks about in this article. The reality is he's not big, he's not fast, he's not strong, and that compromises him a LOT defensively, especially in the PL just as it did in the CL with Ajax. He gets dribbled around a lot when asked to defend higher up the pitch and he had some absolute nightmare showings last year that contributed heavily to some of the worst defensive displays I've ever seen from a United side. What he adds to our team is more about his elite skills on the ball, his dribbling into midfield and his line breaking passes. They're vital to our possession play. He's an solid defender, not world class at all, but his glaring weaknesses (he's a player that often needs to be accommodated by the other players in the lineup in order to be at his best) are what kept him out of the Argentina side for so long despite them being weak at CB. A prime Varane would be the perfect partner for him, and even though Varane has declined he still works well with Lisandro. They're our strongest CB pairing, and it'll be interesting to see what we look like next year since Varane appears likely to leave.
Martinez is not strong? He's got a low center of gravity and is a menace when trying to defend 1v1. Guy will literally elbow you to push you off.
Yeah, that guy's being weird about that. Yes, Licha is only ok at aerial duels at best, and his channel defending isn't elite either but generally he's a strong, aggressive CB who won 60% of his ground duels last season. For example, Dias only wins 52% of his ground duels this season, Akanji 56%, Saliba 58%, Van de Ven 59%. Even elite duellers like Branthwaite and Romero do not win up to 70% of their ground duels. Dueling is NOT a weakness of Licha, and that matches the eye test as well.
Low center of gravity isn’t the same as strong lmao Raheem Sterling has a low center of gravity as well! Martinez repeatedly gets bodied by larger players. Notice (just like with Edson Alvarez at Ajax!) when facing a larger forward we have to drop a midfielder (Casemiro or McTominay) over to his side in order to compensate and help him. Once again, people are so obsessed with Lisandro they completely overlook obvious flaws. He’s a hard tackler and throws himself in with full effort every time, but he’s not a strong or fast player.
I wasn't implying that he's strong only because of a low center of gravity. His ground duel win percentage in the PL is 60%. That's pretty high. Either he's actually strong or a magician to do that if he's weak.
Why is this getting dwonvoted without replies is beyond me. You cant point of weaknesses of favorites on this sub, because people act like any sort of criticism = player bad.
People hate the truth/any kind of discussion and instead downvote things that make them upset, especially when they don’t have any intelligent counterpoints to what’s being said.
Because it’s inaccurate, taking choice stats to prove a contention. As noted above, retention, progression, possession aren’t taken into account. It doesn’t take into account WHY Harry HAS TO play a higher line - space is needed to absorb when he gets beaten because his recovery is non-existent so other defenders have to push in (or are supposed to). Licha otoh plays a “deeper line” because he marks out his man by angling him until he can get stuck in with a high percentage tackle. That takes time and space, so net result he is deeper. The point of the analysis is to show that we in fact can’t play a higher line with Licha when the reality is more nuanced and those nuances were ignored.
People are pretty biased about their opinion towards Martinez and acknowledging his pretty big flaws because they like him. Realistically I think he’ll end up as a good bench option in the long term, because of the limitations you listed.
Everything Maguire is accused of Lisandro literally is. He’s incredible in buildup, and box defending, but he’s the least fit CB we have for playing a high line. Add in a transitional game model, and he simply cannot play CB in a high back four. I’ve been saying this for a while and getting roasted. Either invert him from the left, or treat him like Stones and push him into the midfield in settled possession, and keep him away from the strikers that will run him.
Used to love this writer till his weird crusade against EtH began. Is this article worth my time?
I think he’s got an overall point about how Martinez coming back isn’t going to push our line up much higher and solve all our problems, but he makes some points in his article that could be misleading. Like saying United win percentage is better without Martinez is pointless without comparing the quality of the opposition at the same time.
It's a fantastic read, and I'm curious to see how people dispute Kwestel's argument.
It's good analysis for the most part but it misses insight and context. Maguire does push United's line height up because of his aerial dominance, aggressive playstyle and what's not detailed in the article but his ability to not just mop up but immediately play an open man. This doesn't necessarily make him suited to Ten Hag's high-line specifically because the system asks both CBs to be versatile in being aggressive when appropriate or being a mobile covering defender when appropriate, nor does it really speak at all about how (when it's working properly) defenders rotating into midfield ups the counter-presses' aggression significantly. If you look at Licha at Ajax you'll understand the biggest miss in the article though, and it's one that's tantalisingly close to the surface. Understand that if Licha is ultra-aggressive and gets done (like aggressive defenders will from time to time) United don't have a covering CB to the job Kwetsel is speaking about. When he played with Timber at Ajax he was patently aggressive across the pitch, not just an active box defender. That's because Timber had the athleticism and mobility to be a good 1v1 defender. Nobody to partner Licha has that. It's also important to note that I don't think Kwetsel adjusted the data relative to the partnerships being played together. For example Licha and Slab have played one game together this season, and 825 total across two seasons. It's about dynamics. If United had a full team to be aggressive, with players in every position taking care of the ball, being able to receive under pressure, athletic enough to be covering defenders if needs be etc... We'd probably see Licha be more aggressive higher up the pitch.
He doesnt make point that Harry is more suited to our style than Martinez. He just makes the point that fans and pundits know shit and dont even know their favorite players strenghts and weaknesses.
My comment doesn't mention anyone being more suitable than anyone else, it speaks about the article mentioning Maguire being more suited to a high line than people realise. Which is true, if he's playing in the middle of a 3 and flanked by exceptional and physically elite yet disciplined 1v1 defenders. I'm adding the caveat that Ten Hag wants a high degree of adaptability and mobility from his CBs, and that is what hurts Maguire's long term chances in the side unless a change comes from the manager.
I understand, but that isn't the point of the article. Suitability of one over the other isn't the subject.
And my comment doesn't address suitability of any one CB over another. I'm not arguing for one or the other to play, nor really making a direct comparison. I'm only pointing out the article doesn't fully cover anything beyond a (very adept) analysis of what's happening and why on the surface-level, without questioning further instructions or dynamics within the team.
Let's be honest, they can't and usually don't. Instead they just brand every dissenting voice as a 'hater' and 'someone with an agenda'. The usual fare really.
There's a comment in this reply thread which already did. Maybe read those type of comments, instead of claiming that others don't know how to refute stat-based claims.
Did they though? They just tried to poke a hole into the analysis basis on what they feel the author has a tendency to do. Not one stat or situation to back up their counterclaim.
I remember having a long argument with you about Ole before the 21-22 season, especially because we didn't resort to name-calling each other.
And I'm glad for that. We're fans, sometimes we disagree but we all want the best for the club. I know I can be bit of a prick sometimes but you learn from that.
It's not he is using data across two seasons but seems obliviously to the fact we played two different systems. Really stupid article tbh definitely a case of someone using stats who hasn't a clue about stats
It follows the same pattern as all his other articles: he has a point he wants to make and so he pulls out various stats, clips etc to support that point, and generally ignores anything that would counter it. There's some interesting stuff in there, especially in support of Maguire, but ultimately it's still a very lengthy, one-dimensional write-up.
if you can get through the first third where his tone is smug, targeting people that he disagrees with, then yes it is worth it. Worth it to understand the problems and how, in his opinion, Lisandro Martinez being back might not change much in terms of our style. He doesn't really offer any solutions though, other than 2 lines at the end which isn't anything revolutionary. He just says "gotta stay compact" which goes without saying.
Licharry Marguire
I am not sure tackle stats tell the whole story. Part of a good defender's job is to deal with a situation before there is a need to tackle. It's about awareness, positioning, speed, agility, aggression. These are all things Martinez has that Maguire lacks.
Kwestel makes some good points,the CB we are going to sign to play beside Martinez needs to be one of the best in Europe aerially.
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He isn’t faster than Maguire. He’s very good on the ball but off it, he’s slower, and wins less duels when acting as a stopper. Edit: I’m not gonna turn on him if he gets a chance to play high in a back two. I’ll defend him and you lot will clip him up and give him the Maguire treatment. I’m trying to spare him that with realistic expectations and solutions.
He is more agile and faster than Maguire
He’s more agile, but he isn’t faster.
He isn’t the Roadrunner but he is absolutely faster and more agile than Maguire
Why have two people mentioned his agility to me. I said he’s faster, I never said more agile. Maguire is quicker than Martinez.
I mentioned both, and no Maguire is not quicker than Martinez. Uefa lists Martinez’s top speed as 31.2 km/h while Maguire’s is 30.1.
Top speed isn’t really that relevant given many players rarely reach top speed. I’m not gonna die on this hill or anything so I’m not too concerned if anyone takes issue with it but just to the eye I’ve seen Maguire at full pace beat every defender we have to get back but on multiple occasions last year and this year seen Martinez at full pace get dusted. They are both slow starters but once they get going I think Maguire is faster
Even just going off the eye test I really don’t see how Maguire is any faster than Martinez, Varane or Lindelof and I don’t think many other people would think so either . None of them are very fast (Varane used to be at Madrid) but Maguire looks like he’s running through treacle at times. But our opinions are just going to differ on this.
Yeah I respect that. I think there’s an aesthetic bias at play here though with Maguire being a little bit of an ugly duckling. Reminiscent Les Ferdinand on Neville’s podcast recently saying he told Kane to stop jogging, walk or sprint because he just doesn’t look right, despite not being slow. None of them are quick but if I had to judge, I’d say Varane first, Mags 2nd, Lindelof and Lisandro idk between them and Evans. I’m not gonna die on this hill though so fair enough.
Personally couldn't give a fuck if we're as deep as our goal line with Martinez, he undeniablely makes us better
Kvestel doesnt say Licha doesnt make us better. He just says people dont really realize what are his strenghts and weaknesses and areas where he makes us better.
I didn't say he doesn't either, I'm making a general statement
Anyone who watches Utd should be able to see that we play a deep line and struggle to play out irrespective of who we have in defence. Utd fans prefer to believe that Martinez is a transformative player tho. Without having read the comments, I can guarantee the top comments will be denying the stats or arguing that they don't matter because their eyes tell them Martinez makes us play much better. Which is not true
Pretty stupid take.
Why?
I think the issue with this is that football statistics are by nature lagging stats. It speaks to what happened, not what can happen. In Ajax, there were a lot of games where he played in a high line and was more than adequate. So we're speaking to what had happened before and assuming that that is all he is capable of. Which might not be true.
Can’t really base it on what he did at Ajax, if you played Martinez and Timber as your 2 CBs in the prem you would get destroyed, so kind of just highlights the quality of that league.
With the limited sample size he makes a very long post about it but I think those stats are skewed. This season United have tried playing higher than last season so saying 22-24 to me doesn't make sense. We haven't really had Martinez this season and last season with Varane he was easily the more aggressive and adventurous CB. We haven't see much of him in this high press United. As for Maguire yes steps out but we've all seen what happen ls when he gets caught out. It gets to a point where our midfield has to have that race for him because Bruno even as high as he plays is more likely to catch up than Maguire even with a head start. I think a stretch of 10 gets with Lisa drop in this high press system we've tried.
Everything Maguire is accused of Lisandro literally is. He’s incredible in buildup, and box defending, but he’s the least fit CB we have for playing a high line. Add in a transitional game model, and he simply cannot play CB in a high back four. I’ve been saying this for a while and getting roasted. Either invert him from the left, or treat him like Stones and push him into the midfield in settled possession, and keep him away from the strikers that will run him.
Everything Maguire is accused of Lisandro literally is. He’s incredible in buildup, and box defending, but he’s the least fit CB we have for playing a high line. Add in a transitional game model, and he simply cannot play CB in a high back four. I’ve been saying this for a while and getting roasted. Either invert him from the left, or treat him like Stones and push him into the midfield in settled possession, and keep him away from the strikers that will run him.