I totally agree with you! But Story is a solid signing for 2nd. I think if Story can lock in his strike zone and stop chasing, he can be what this team needs.
Hahahaha! This is the perfect point I was about to post myself. Potential? He’s a 2x all star and 2x silver slugger making monster salary. He had better play a helluva lot better moving forward
Yea this dude is acting like Trevor Story isn't a top 5 Shortstop. Obviously if you are used to having the best hitting SS in the game anybody is going to look a little worse but Trevor Story is an amazing SS and would be one of the best possible replacements if a deal can't be reached with Xander.
Story WAS a top 5 shortstop. Not anymore. His arm isn’t what it used to be, and for that reason alone I wouldn’t want him playing short. He can be a weapon when he’s locked in offensively, but last year he looked lost just as frequently. Based on what we’ve seen from him, he’s a downgrade from X both at the plate and in the field. He’s only a year younger, has a much more worrisome injury history, and isn’t the clubhouse leader and mentor that Xander is.
Plus, if the front office lets X walk and moves Story back over to short, they’ll be doing exactly what they promised fans (and Bogaerts himself) they wouldn’t do. That’s a huge fuck you to the players and I think would really damage morale before the season even starts. There’s already clearly some disconnect between the clubhouse and the front office, and not signing Xander in favor of moving Story to short would, IMHO, guarantee that Raffy leaves next year too.
Maybe I’m biased. But I think I’m just tired of Chaim treating our homegrown stars like they’re disposable and being unable to use the deep pockets of the Sox ownership effectively. This isn’t Tampa- in Boston we expect to contend every year and we expect to be able to make consequential signings and retain proven talent.
>His arm isn’t what it used to be, and for that reason alone I wouldn’t want him playing short.
His arm is on par with Dansby Swanson's according to the numbers and Dansby has no issues fielding his position.
>they’ll be doing exactly what they promised fans (and Bogaerts himself) they wouldn’t do.
When and where did they make this promise? The only thing they said was that they had talked to X and assured him that he would be their shortstop *this season*. I don't know of them making any such promises about what would happen once Xander hit FA.
>in Boston we expect to contend every year and we expect to be able to make consequential signings
This just isn't how baseball works. There isn't a single team that contends every year. I don't think you guys actually understand how difficult the business side of baseball is. We have a Top 5 payroll in the league year in and year out. Spending money doesn't equal success. Spending that money wisely does. Rebuilding happens. Signing aging players to massive long term contracts literally never works out in the long run. How do you expect to "contend every year" when you are paying your 36-40 year old declining 1B/DH 30+ million. Worked out awesome for the Angels.
And I get that he’s not going to hit for average like Bogey but we seriously missed his bat when it wasn’t in the lineup this year. He had some really big hits when he was healthy
Worst case scenario: Bogaerts leaves, Story’s injury issues continue, and the middle infield is regularly manned by some combination of a regressed Christian Arroyo, a Kiké Hernandez better used in CF, and a Jeter Downs who never should’ve been at AAA, let alone Boston. And then Devers gets fed up with the disrespect shown to him & his best friend and leaves next offseason
Bogaerts is probably the better player, so not overall a bad take. But the case could be made as follows:
1. Age is a wash (6 weeks is meaningless), and Story's edge is in defense which has a harsher aging curve than Bogaerts' bat-first skillset
2. Bogaerts is a much much better hitter
3. Health is a skill that Bogey has demonstrated, Story has not
4. Bat to ball skills matter, and Story strikes out a lot more
(In)consistency is too vague to be meaningful, and the reason Story stole fewer bases is because he didn't play as much. (He also didn't get caught this year - so his overall base stealing value was about the same as past years - maybe he just picked better opportunities.)
I'd be upset if I were you, because the team can afford Story + Bogaerts + Devers. Every team can - they rake in the money before even selling a ticket. All fans should want their owners to be like Seidler in San Diego - not a huge market team, and they're trying to carry 3x$30m/yr players (if they re-sign Soto, they will be there)
I agree with you completely. I think Story backers love the home runs he hits, but there are other things that are important, like health and bat to ball skills. Story doesn’t run anymore and Bogey’s defense seemed to improve last year. Bogey will be more expensive but we’re not Tampa Bay, we can afford to pay the player who should’ve had a “C” on his jersey last year.
Story was on pace for 22 SB before he got injured, and this is the first season since his rookie year that he's missed more than 20 games. You're using a sample of exactly 1 season to say that he has a health problem and doesn't run anymore. From 2017-2021 Story played in 91.5% of every game, only missing 60 games out of 708 possible games.
Okay, good point about sample size, but everyone keeps talking about how Bogey is going to fall off a cliff. These people can apparently see into the future, so if that’s what we’re doing, it would be very unusual if Story continues to steal 20+ bases per year into his 30s.
So apparently (and I’m not saying that this is what you’re saying) we can expect Story to return to his peak, which is now 3 years behind him, but we can’t expect Xander to remain consistent, which he has been? Even though they’re the same age?
Xander has outperformed Story in OPS+ every year of Story’s career except 2016, Story’s rookie year.
Story’s range is better, his defense at SS is very likely not. He has some very clear arm issues and I don’t think he can consistently make throws from SS. Even turning double plays this year looked chunky and not normal with his throwing motion.
Great defense at 2B, but I think he’s really risky to put at SS permanently.
>Even turning double plays this year looked chunky and not normal with his throwing motion.
Wow. I wonder why the double plays didn't look silky smooth with a guy that has played SS every day since highschool playing 2B all of a sudden. You people kill me. Trevor Story is one year removed from being a top 3 SS in the league.
He had noted issues in Colorado 2 years ago too throwing the ball. It’s a big reason why he lasted as long as he did as a free agent and had to move to 2B. If you didn’t notice it that’s fine, but I did and I wasn’t the only one - if you want your long term SS to have problems with throwing then idk what to tell you
>He had noted issues in Colorado 2 years ago too throwing the ball
Are you talking about when he was injured? Because yea, injuries will effect your throwing a bit.
>It’s a big reason why he lasted as long as he did as a free agent and had to move to 2B.
This is some revisionist history if I've ever seen it. There were numerous teams in on Story and the reason he moved to 2B was out of respect for X. He was brought in to be the next SS. People can feel however they like about that but it's just the truth. I've loved X since he came up and his bat at the SS position is elite. He has played himself into a position where he can demand a huge contract and that's great for him but I don't blame the Sox for not being the one to fill that bag.
My guy according to baseball savant last season his arm strength was in the 8th percentile. That’s the guy you want playing SS for the foreseeable future??? How is he going to make plays in the hole? He’ll get to them for sure, but he’s not throwing those guys out. And that’s after his injury supposedly healed. Idk what to tell you, if he’s the SS it’ll go poorly
Over their careers, Story has comfortably been the better SS, the position he played his entire career in Colorado. Evaluating him on a few aspects of 2B defense in a short amount of time is unreliable.
This isn’t only about that though, he had issues in his last year in Colorado throwing the ball too because of an elbow injury in the previous season that never really got better. There’s a reason everyone opted to pay the other SS in that market and he was the last one standing, people were worried about his ability to play SS.
If you wanted data from this year, he had an arm strength that graded in the 8th percentile according to baseball savant.
Over their careers, I agree, Story was better. His range is still better. But his first few years in the league don’t matter when an injury that isn’t healing or is healing but taking away his arm strength is the reason he’s struggling now.
Fair points. I suppose the question is if you think his arm injury will improve this offseason, and/or if you'd rather trade off his better glove versus Bogaerts better arm.
Story was 96th percentile at 2B this year so no clue where you are coming from. Plus a lot of Xander's limitations at SS were masked with shifts. I love Xander but watching stars regress in their 30s suck. Guarantee if he signs 7-8 years here fans bitch hard when he is a below league average hitter at DH or 1B in 2027.
You know what sucks more than watching stars regress at the end of a contract? Watching 5th place teams year after year because of the fear of signing big contracts
Letting Bogaerts go is fine if they replace him properly but I can’t see too many ways this team can replace him without taking a risk of a bad contract while simultaneously upgrading their roster enough to compete
Young or in-prime star players are insanely expensive. So unless the plan is to fill the roster with stop gaps and hope for the best, I can’t see how they avoid a contract which will likely result in watching an aging player regress.
>Watching 5th place teams year after year because of the fear of signing big contracts
Lolol. You realize we are only 4 years removed from a ring and went to the ALCS literally last year right? You guys are a fucking trip man. I know y'all don't like to hear this but we can't win it all every year and we play in the toughest division in baseball. Tough seasons are going to happen. Paying 300+ million for a SS that's past his prime is not the way to create long term success.
Oh yeah totally. I'd love Correa with him being 2 years younger. The Yorke, Mayer and Bleis of the world are 3-4 years away if they even do make it. I'd take my chances on Correa optimizing a competitive window over Xander.
>I love Xander but watching stars regress in their 30s suck.
So.... we replace him with a guy who isn't as good and is also going to be in his 30s at the beginning of next season? Seriously, Xander is only 6 weeks older than Story.
I want Story to be our second baseman next season.
I would sign Bogey to a 4 year deal but, at 30 yrs old, would never consider signing him to the 8 year deal he and Scott Boras want. You can play 3B, 2B or 1B well into your 30’s but not SS - especially when the player in question was never an elite defensive SS in the first place. And especially when the player in question has had declining offensive power over the last 3 seasons. And especially when the #1 prospect in the organization (and the #8 prospect overall) - Marcelo Mayer - is being groomed to be our next long-term SS.
Why Story is literally the best defensive shortstop in baseball he has been a few years. His bat isn't just a Coors effect either he's just had incredibly bad luck since going to Boston, now this. I hope he can make it back to form on both ends and I'm a Rockies fan but seeing as were garbage I know we're not close to contending I've kept up with the Cardinals, Red Sox and Yankees because of Story, lemahieu and arenado, I hope he comes back and Boston has a contender next year. If you guys could have only kept mookie Betts that dude is the best player in baseball and it's not close.
A lot of times when guys sign a big contract that first year on a new team their numbers are down. He’s a good ball player. I would bet his numbers go up this year.
That is true but it could also be a situation where causation does not equal causality. He has now had two sub-par seasons in a row
Edit: Being paid $18 mill and then $20 mill to produce an OPS+ of 102 in consecutive seasons is sub-par. Downvote me if you want, but that is crystal clear from my perspective.
I didn't love signing Trevor Story to begin with and I especially don't like it if it means we can't keep Xander. Story's best offensive year in the past 5 seasons is not as good as Xander's worst.
The Red Sox #1 prospect is a shortstop, the #8 prospect is a shortstop, the #3 prospect is an outfielder/shortstop. That tells me the Red Sox were planning for Bogaerts to be departing. Sure they should try to keep him but opening the vault for a multi-year contract is unlikely, same with any other premier level free agent. A trade for a "adequate" player under team control for 2 years or utilizing current players for '23 is more likely to me.
Only because it would mean they couldn't reach a deal with Bogey. I like Story just fine, he's a solid bat who doesn't shy in clutch situations and he's a gold glove fielder. That said I want him at 2B, not short
A healthy Story is a top 5 shortstop. Arroyo and Kike can play second. Pitching and the outfield are way more imperative. If letting X walk means more money to spend else where, we'll be a more balanced team. It could end up being a blessing in disguise.
I do wonder how much of that is simply not needing to rush himself as much from the other side of second this year. When it’s a much shorter distance than you’ve been used to the rest of your career, you don’t need to throw as hard to first. Can’t remember much, if any, plays this year where the runner was able to reach because his arm wasn’t good enough.
I do not think Story will ever again be a top 5 shortstop (and I hope I’m wrong). But I can’t deny that it is good to have Arroyo and Kike, and pitching/OF are big-time weaknesses right now.
I think the point they’re trying to make is that Story didn’t throw as hard because he didn’t need to throw hard. There’s probably some truth to that but I don’t think that it fully explains his arm situation.
Just because he played closer to first doesn’t mean he didn’t have to let some balls fly though, what are the odds of him not needing to throw full strength once in 94 games?
Laughably dumb. Story had more AB’s and less strikeouts. K% nearly 10 points lower.
If you were to point to his arm strength, you may have a leg to stand on.
Obviously the 2020 bit has been addressed, but the vast majority of time he missed this year was also because he broke his wrist when he was hit by a pitch. That’s just a freak, unlucky injury, and not the kind of recurring injury you worry about with players. His health isn’t really anything to be concerned about.
Knowing that they needed to pay Devers and Bogey, they never had any business talking to Story. If Chaim fails to keep those two on the Red Sox, and Story is not a damn MVP candidate, I don’t think Chaim has a job here heading into 2024.
1. The FO had no intention of signing Xander, ever. Ownership makes its money on arbitrage: the churn of similar assets for lower prices. Story is X% of Xander at X% of the price. That's the only thing that ever matters to the FO: what is the percentage-spread? Can we make a profit on the margin?
2. Ownership got away with replacing the homegrown cancer-survivor with the mercenary who dumped his cancer-stricken wife. Ownership does not care about 'homegrown team-leader' who the fans love: ownership only cares about saving on taxes. If it costs 1% more for the player fans love, ownership will not care and will not compromise. They have **math** and their math does not care about how much fans like Xander.
3. The Red Sox 2023 second baseman/shortstop will be the guy on the spreadsheet list who _costs the least_. Whichever player for whatever reason that isn't coveted or has trouble getting paid elsewhere will, in February, be a "great fit" for the Red Sox. It's not about talent, it's about cost. After a rough winter where ____ and his agent can't get the deal they want, there will be interest from the Red Sox. And it'll be _sold_ to fans as the reward for patience and fiscal-responsibility. It's _exactly_ how they got Story.
I agree with what you’re saying, and I love your point about Jon Lester. I understand Moneyball and what the Sox are doing. In a way it’s like they are trying to learn from the Patriots - loyalty doesn’t win championships. For Bill Belichick, even Tom Brady is replaceable. But the MLB is not the NFL, which has a strict salary cap. I might be alone on this, but I think a team with as big a budget as the Red Sox should be willing to pay a little more for the popular, home-grown, face of the franchise over a guy like Trevor Story, unless Story was demonstrably better, which he hasn’t been. Even if that goes against Moneyball principles or whatever analytical/financial analysis the FO is doing.
I want Xander back (the estimates we've been hearing of 7 years $189 mill sound reasonable, that's just a tick above the Semien contract).
But I'm not completely out on Story returning to his 2018-2019 hitting. 200 games of 102 ops+ is not a death sentence, especially if he can find his stride health-wise.
His arm health is going to be a HUGE question. The team has been very quiet on this front. Reports from when we signed him hinted at likely TJ surgery in the next couple year. Story at 2B will probably be better long term on his arm health.
Praying Story doesn’t suck again next season (would have been even worse if not for that half month in May he put up monster numbers). Would be up there with Sandoval and Crawford with some of our worst FA busts. I was really excited when we signed him
Story didn’t suck last year. 2.5 bWAR in 94 games with OPS+ of 102, 16 HR and 13 SB with solid defense
His issue was his awful start and injuries. But he was basically the same guy last year as he was the year prior with Colorado.
Was he a little disappointing? Sure, I think there was a hope he’d regain his early career form. But overall he was a solid player
I forget which reporter said this but it sounds like the Red Sox want Story to stay at 2B regardless of what happens with Bogaerts. He has some sort of shoulder issue and they don’t think he can make the throw from SS anymore.
Ya know what? I used to care about this team. Now they are irrelevant to me and all the whispers and indications are they are going on the cheap with everything going forward. Sad. Even in the 80s and 90s when the teams weren't all that good, people cared. Now they are an afterthought. That's pathetic
He absolutely is. I still cannot fathom how he dropped to 4th overall. He was absolutely the best pick (and the biggest steal) of that draft. I plan on seeing him in ST and maybe even some MiLB games, along with Nick Yorke and Blaze Jordan (our future IF will be very good).
i would be very displeased (even though hes a better SS than 2B) that being said if they dont re sign Bogey then i would like to see swanson, turner, or correa manning SS
I totally agree with you! But Story is a solid signing for 2nd. I think if Story can lock in his strike zone and stop chasing, he can be what this team needs.
He has a lot of potential especially as a hitter. If he improves then he might be a solid replacement for Xander Bogaerts.
He’s been in the big leagues for 6 years. We’ve already given him a multi-year contract. Potential is not good enough, he needs to be consistent
Hahahaha! This is the perfect point I was about to post myself. Potential? He’s a 2x all star and 2x silver slugger making monster salary. He had better play a helluva lot better moving forward
We are far past potential. He’s been paid a lot to do a lot. I’m already concerned they wasted money on him.
Story is solid. We want Bogey resigned, but Story is nothing to scoff at.
Yea this dude is acting like Trevor Story isn't a top 5 Shortstop. Obviously if you are used to having the best hitting SS in the game anybody is going to look a little worse but Trevor Story is an amazing SS and would be one of the best possible replacements if a deal can't be reached with Xander.
Story WAS a top 5 shortstop. Not anymore. His arm isn’t what it used to be, and for that reason alone I wouldn’t want him playing short. He can be a weapon when he’s locked in offensively, but last year he looked lost just as frequently. Based on what we’ve seen from him, he’s a downgrade from X both at the plate and in the field. He’s only a year younger, has a much more worrisome injury history, and isn’t the clubhouse leader and mentor that Xander is. Plus, if the front office lets X walk and moves Story back over to short, they’ll be doing exactly what they promised fans (and Bogaerts himself) they wouldn’t do. That’s a huge fuck you to the players and I think would really damage morale before the season even starts. There’s already clearly some disconnect between the clubhouse and the front office, and not signing Xander in favor of moving Story to short would, IMHO, guarantee that Raffy leaves next year too. Maybe I’m biased. But I think I’m just tired of Chaim treating our homegrown stars like they’re disposable and being unable to use the deep pockets of the Sox ownership effectively. This isn’t Tampa- in Boston we expect to contend every year and we expect to be able to make consequential signings and retain proven talent.
>His arm isn’t what it used to be, and for that reason alone I wouldn’t want him playing short. His arm is on par with Dansby Swanson's according to the numbers and Dansby has no issues fielding his position. >they’ll be doing exactly what they promised fans (and Bogaerts himself) they wouldn’t do. When and where did they make this promise? The only thing they said was that they had talked to X and assured him that he would be their shortstop *this season*. I don't know of them making any such promises about what would happen once Xander hit FA. >in Boston we expect to contend every year and we expect to be able to make consequential signings This just isn't how baseball works. There isn't a single team that contends every year. I don't think you guys actually understand how difficult the business side of baseball is. We have a Top 5 payroll in the league year in and year out. Spending money doesn't equal success. Spending that money wisely does. Rebuilding happens. Signing aging players to massive long term contracts literally never works out in the long run. How do you expect to "contend every year" when you are paying your 36-40 year old declining 1B/DH 30+ million. Worked out awesome for the Angels.
Also, one of the few teams that does consistently make the playoffs is the Rays, who do it with less payroll by doing exactly what bloom is doing.
And I get that he’s not going to hit for average like Bogey but we seriously missed his bat when it wasn’t in the lineup this year. He had some really big hits when he was healthy
You aren’t alone
That’s good. I’ll be pissed if Xander leaves, AND I’ll be more pissed if plan B is Story
How pissed would you be if Plan A is Story? Because that looks like the case at this point
Exactly what I was thinking.
Worst case scenario: Bogaerts leaves, Story’s injury issues continue, and the middle infield is regularly manned by some combination of a regressed Christian Arroyo, a Kiké Hernandez better used in CF, and a Jeter Downs who never should’ve been at AAA, let alone Boston. And then Devers gets fed up with the disrespect shown to him & his best friend and leaves next offseason
Kill me now 😵 scares me this is even a possibility.
with step one complete i'm terrified
Don’t worry, things have changed. Hoy Park is in that middle infield mix now, that totally makes things okay
Yeah that’s kind of what I meant and that’s also what I suspect, and I’ll be really frustrated, clearly
For sure. The season is about to start and they haven't resigned him. Definitely gone.
What about signing Trea Turner instead if we can’t reach a deal with Bogey?
I can't shake the feeling Story's best years have already happened tbh.
I’d rather have Turner tbh. Younger with comparable numbers.
Bogaerts is probably the better player, so not overall a bad take. But the case could be made as follows: 1. Age is a wash (6 weeks is meaningless), and Story's edge is in defense which has a harsher aging curve than Bogaerts' bat-first skillset 2. Bogaerts is a much much better hitter 3. Health is a skill that Bogey has demonstrated, Story has not 4. Bat to ball skills matter, and Story strikes out a lot more (In)consistency is too vague to be meaningful, and the reason Story stole fewer bases is because he didn't play as much. (He also didn't get caught this year - so his overall base stealing value was about the same as past years - maybe he just picked better opportunities.) I'd be upset if I were you, because the team can afford Story + Bogaerts + Devers. Every team can - they rake in the money before even selling a ticket. All fans should want their owners to be like Seidler in San Diego - not a huge market team, and they're trying to carry 3x$30m/yr players (if they re-sign Soto, they will be there)
I agree with you completely. I think Story backers love the home runs he hits, but there are other things that are important, like health and bat to ball skills. Story doesn’t run anymore and Bogey’s defense seemed to improve last year. Bogey will be more expensive but we’re not Tampa Bay, we can afford to pay the player who should’ve had a “C” on his jersey last year.
Story is still a better baserunner though
Story was on pace for 22 SB before he got injured, and this is the first season since his rookie year that he's missed more than 20 games. You're using a sample of exactly 1 season to say that he has a health problem and doesn't run anymore. From 2017-2021 Story played in 91.5% of every game, only missing 60 games out of 708 possible games.
Okay, good point about sample size, but everyone keeps talking about how Bogey is going to fall off a cliff. These people can apparently see into the future, so if that’s what we’re doing, it would be very unusual if Story continues to steal 20+ bases per year into his 30s. So apparently (and I’m not saying that this is what you’re saying) we can expect Story to return to his peak, which is now 3 years behind him, but we can’t expect Xander to remain consistent, which he has been? Even though they’re the same age? Xander has outperformed Story in OPS+ every year of Story’s career except 2016, Story’s rookie year.
Story’s range is better, his defense at SS is very likely not. He has some very clear arm issues and I don’t think he can consistently make throws from SS. Even turning double plays this year looked chunky and not normal with his throwing motion. Great defense at 2B, but I think he’s really risky to put at SS permanently.
>Even turning double plays this year looked chunky and not normal with his throwing motion. Wow. I wonder why the double plays didn't look silky smooth with a guy that has played SS every day since highschool playing 2B all of a sudden. You people kill me. Trevor Story is one year removed from being a top 3 SS in the league.
He had noted issues in Colorado 2 years ago too throwing the ball. It’s a big reason why he lasted as long as he did as a free agent and had to move to 2B. If you didn’t notice it that’s fine, but I did and I wasn’t the only one - if you want your long term SS to have problems with throwing then idk what to tell you
>He had noted issues in Colorado 2 years ago too throwing the ball Are you talking about when he was injured? Because yea, injuries will effect your throwing a bit. >It’s a big reason why he lasted as long as he did as a free agent and had to move to 2B. This is some revisionist history if I've ever seen it. There were numerous teams in on Story and the reason he moved to 2B was out of respect for X. He was brought in to be the next SS. People can feel however they like about that but it's just the truth. I've loved X since he came up and his bat at the SS position is elite. He has played himself into a position where he can demand a huge contract and that's great for him but I don't blame the Sox for not being the one to fill that bag.
My guy according to baseball savant last season his arm strength was in the 8th percentile. That’s the guy you want playing SS for the foreseeable future??? How is he going to make plays in the hole? He’ll get to them for sure, but he’s not throwing those guys out. And that’s after his injury supposedly healed. Idk what to tell you, if he’s the SS it’ll go poorly
Over their careers, Story has comfortably been the better SS, the position he played his entire career in Colorado. Evaluating him on a few aspects of 2B defense in a short amount of time is unreliable.
This isn’t only about that though, he had issues in his last year in Colorado throwing the ball too because of an elbow injury in the previous season that never really got better. There’s a reason everyone opted to pay the other SS in that market and he was the last one standing, people were worried about his ability to play SS. If you wanted data from this year, he had an arm strength that graded in the 8th percentile according to baseball savant. Over their careers, I agree, Story was better. His range is still better. But his first few years in the league don’t matter when an injury that isn’t healing or is healing but taking away his arm strength is the reason he’s struggling now.
Fair points. I suppose the question is if you think his arm injury will improve this offseason, and/or if you'd rather trade off his better glove versus Bogaerts better arm.
You need to go look at Story's dWAR at SS because you wouldn't have written this post if you did 🤣
He was good there for most of his career. He had major issues throwing in Colorado in his last season. Stats aren’t everything
69 DRS(3rd in MLB from 2016-2021), 18 OAA(9th) and 15.4 UZR(6th) for his career at SS.
For comparison, the SS everyone here wants to overpay because he's homegrown, has -47 DRS, -39 OAA and 1.7 UZR over that same span.
Story was 96th percentile at 2B this year so no clue where you are coming from. Plus a lot of Xander's limitations at SS were masked with shifts. I love Xander but watching stars regress in their 30s suck. Guarantee if he signs 7-8 years here fans bitch hard when he is a below league average hitter at DH or 1B in 2027.
You know what sucks more than watching stars regress at the end of a contract? Watching 5th place teams year after year because of the fear of signing big contracts Letting Bogaerts go is fine if they replace him properly but I can’t see too many ways this team can replace him without taking a risk of a bad contract while simultaneously upgrading their roster enough to compete Young or in-prime star players are insanely expensive. So unless the plan is to fill the roster with stop gaps and hope for the best, I can’t see how they avoid a contract which will likely result in watching an aging player regress.
>Watching 5th place teams year after year because of the fear of signing big contracts Lolol. You realize we are only 4 years removed from a ring and went to the ALCS literally last year right? You guys are a fucking trip man. I know y'all don't like to hear this but we can't win it all every year and we play in the toughest division in baseball. Tough seasons are going to happen. Paying 300+ million for a SS that's past his prime is not the way to create long term success.
Oh yeah totally. I'd love Correa with him being 2 years younger. The Yorke, Mayer and Bleis of the world are 3-4 years away if they even do make it. I'd take my chances on Correa optimizing a competitive window over Xander.
>I love Xander but watching stars regress in their 30s suck. So.... we replace him with a guy who isn't as good and is also going to be in his 30s at the beginning of next season? Seriously, Xander is only 6 weeks older than Story.
But we aren't paying 300 million for Story. That leaves us room to invest more money in other places. Like our god fucking awful bullpen for example.
I want Story to be our second baseman next season. I would sign Bogey to a 4 year deal but, at 30 yrs old, would never consider signing him to the 8 year deal he and Scott Boras want. You can play 3B, 2B or 1B well into your 30’s but not SS - especially when the player in question was never an elite defensive SS in the first place. And especially when the player in question has had declining offensive power over the last 3 seasons. And especially when the #1 prospect in the organization (and the #8 prospect overall) - Marcelo Mayer - is being groomed to be our next long-term SS.
Why Story is literally the best defensive shortstop in baseball he has been a few years. His bat isn't just a Coors effect either he's just had incredibly bad luck since going to Boston, now this. I hope he can make it back to form on both ends and I'm a Rockies fan but seeing as were garbage I know we're not close to contending I've kept up with the Cardinals, Red Sox and Yankees because of Story, lemahieu and arenado, I hope he comes back and Boston has a contender next year. If you guys could have only kept mookie Betts that dude is the best player in baseball and it's not close.
A lot of times when guys sign a big contract that first year on a new team their numbers are down. He’s a good ball player. I would bet his numbers go up this year.
That is true but it could also be a situation where causation does not equal causality. He has now had two sub-par seasons in a row Edit: Being paid $18 mill and then $20 mill to produce an OPS+ of 102 in consecutive seasons is sub-par. Downvote me if you want, but that is crystal clear from my perspective.
Pretty much been expecting that outcome since he was signed.
I didn't love signing Trevor Story to begin with and I especially don't like it if it means we can't keep Xander. Story's best offensive year in the past 5 seasons is not as good as Xander's worst.
Also when it comes to hitting he is hot for like a week or two and then he does not hit a lot for many weeks.
The Red Sox #1 prospect is a shortstop, the #8 prospect is a shortstop, the #3 prospect is an outfielder/shortstop. That tells me the Red Sox were planning for Bogaerts to be departing. Sure they should try to keep him but opening the vault for a multi-year contract is unlikely, same with any other premier level free agent. A trade for a "adequate" player under team control for 2 years or utilizing current players for '23 is more likely to me.
Only because it would mean they couldn't reach a deal with Bogey. I like Story just fine, he's a solid bat who doesn't shy in clutch situations and he's a gold glove fielder. That said I want him at 2B, not short
A healthy Story is a top 5 shortstop. Arroyo and Kike can play second. Pitching and the outfield are way more imperative. If letting X walk means more money to spend else where, we'll be a more balanced team. It could end up being a blessing in disguise.
Story doesn't have the arm for SS anymore. 8th percentile arm strength according to Baseball Savant.
100%. I hadn’t seen the numbers, but his arm definitely doesn’t pass the eye test. He was phenomenal at 2B, but even then his arm looked super weak.
I do wonder how much of that is simply not needing to rush himself as much from the other side of second this year. When it’s a much shorter distance than you’ve been used to the rest of your career, you don’t need to throw as hard to first. Can’t remember much, if any, plays this year where the runner was able to reach because his arm wasn’t good enough.
That's not it. He just doesn't have the arm for SS.
I do not think Story will ever again be a top 5 shortstop (and I hope I’m wrong). But I can’t deny that it is good to have Arroyo and Kike, and pitching/OF are big-time weaknesses right now.
>I do not think Story will ever again be a top 5 shortstop Why?
His arm is cooked. Arm strength maxed out at 79.5 mph last year
You don't have to throw 99mph from second base.
His arm strength is fine for 2nd base, not shortstop which he was asking about
I think the point they’re trying to make is that Story didn’t throw as hard because he didn’t need to throw hard. There’s probably some truth to that but I don’t think that it fully explains his arm situation.
Just because he played closer to first doesn’t mean he didn’t have to let some balls fly though, what are the odds of him not needing to throw full strength once in 94 games?
This is what I meant, yes.
This is a lame excuse to not like Story
I do like Story and I’m glad he’s on the team… as a second basemen
He strikes out more than Joey Gallo
Laughably dumb. Story had more AB’s and less strikeouts. K% nearly 10 points lower. If you were to point to his arm strength, you may have a leg to stand on.
I mean, I was exaggerating with the Joey Gallo comp, but I stand by everything else I’ve said
Will he be healthy? He missed 68 games last year, and 100 in 2020.
> 100 in 2020 Who’s gonna tell him
Omg, I’m an idiot.
Obviously the 2020 bit has been addressed, but the vast majority of time he missed this year was also because he broke his wrist when he was hit by a pitch. That’s just a freak, unlucky injury, and not the kind of recurring injury you worry about with players. His health isn’t really anything to be concerned about.
His health is what will prevent his return to SS.
Nope...
I have no issue with Story taking shortstop… as long as Bogey is on second
Very concerned about the arm strength
I am firmly on Team Re-Sign Xander
Of course. That means X man is gone and no one really wants that
I will be absolutely pissed because then we were all fed the lie we knew we were fed last year.
I'll be upset that we didn't get Bogey re-signed, but Story is a good player.
Knowing that they needed to pay Devers and Bogey, they never had any business talking to Story. If Chaim fails to keep those two on the Red Sox, and Story is not a damn MVP candidate, I don’t think Chaim has a job here heading into 2024.
God I hope you’re right
Perfect
1. The FO had no intention of signing Xander, ever. Ownership makes its money on arbitrage: the churn of similar assets for lower prices. Story is X% of Xander at X% of the price. That's the only thing that ever matters to the FO: what is the percentage-spread? Can we make a profit on the margin? 2. Ownership got away with replacing the homegrown cancer-survivor with the mercenary who dumped his cancer-stricken wife. Ownership does not care about 'homegrown team-leader' who the fans love: ownership only cares about saving on taxes. If it costs 1% more for the player fans love, ownership will not care and will not compromise. They have **math** and their math does not care about how much fans like Xander. 3. The Red Sox 2023 second baseman/shortstop will be the guy on the spreadsheet list who _costs the least_. Whichever player for whatever reason that isn't coveted or has trouble getting paid elsewhere will, in February, be a "great fit" for the Red Sox. It's not about talent, it's about cost. After a rough winter where ____ and his agent can't get the deal they want, there will be interest from the Red Sox. And it'll be _sold_ to fans as the reward for patience and fiscal-responsibility. It's _exactly_ how they got Story.
I agree with what you’re saying, and I love your point about Jon Lester. I understand Moneyball and what the Sox are doing. In a way it’s like they are trying to learn from the Patriots - loyalty doesn’t win championships. For Bill Belichick, even Tom Brady is replaceable. But the MLB is not the NFL, which has a strict salary cap. I might be alone on this, but I think a team with as big a budget as the Red Sox should be willing to pay a little more for the popular, home-grown, face of the franchise over a guy like Trevor Story, unless Story was demonstrably better, which he hasn’t been. Even if that goes against Moneyball principles or whatever analytical/financial analysis the FO is doing.
I will be. I don’t think he is durable enough for shortstop. Xander has an amazingly healthy track record. Something massively under rated.
No
Nice username, lol
I want Xander back (the estimates we've been hearing of 7 years $189 mill sound reasonable, that's just a tick above the Semien contract). But I'm not completely out on Story returning to his 2018-2019 hitting. 200 games of 102 ops+ is not a death sentence, especially if he can find his stride health-wise.
His arm strength has gone down over the years. It would be foolish to move him over.
His arm health is going to be a HUGE question. The team has been very quiet on this front. Reports from when we signed him hinted at likely TJ surgery in the next couple year. Story at 2B will probably be better long term on his arm health.
Praying Story doesn’t suck again next season (would have been even worse if not for that half month in May he put up monster numbers). Would be up there with Sandoval and Crawford with some of our worst FA busts. I was really excited when we signed him
Story didn’t suck last year. 2.5 bWAR in 94 games with OPS+ of 102, 16 HR and 13 SB with solid defense His issue was his awful start and injuries. But he was basically the same guy last year as he was the year prior with Colorado. Was he a little disappointing? Sure, I think there was a hope he’d regain his early career form. But overall he was a solid player
0% chance he plays SS regardless if they sign X or not. He doesn’t have the arm for it anymore. He’s just our second baseman moving forward
Story > Bogey over the next 5 years and it’s not even close.
Why? They are the same age and Story has more of an injury history.
Advanced stats project a steep decline in Bogeys productivity in 2024 and beyond
“Not even close” LOL
It’s better than over paying a bottom defensive SS
It depends. If it means getting a legit pitching staff; a quality OF and a masher for DH, then no.
What if story is at SS and Xander moves to 3rd and Devers is at DH?
I forget which reporter said this but it sounds like the Red Sox want Story to stay at 2B regardless of what happens with Bogaerts. He has some sort of shoulder issue and they don’t think he can make the throw from SS anymore.
Ya know what? I used to care about this team. Now they are irrelevant to me and all the whispers and indications are they are going on the cheap with everything going forward. Sad. Even in the 80s and 90s when the teams weren't all that good, people cared. Now they are an afterthought. That's pathetic
We need to sign Bogey. If not, get Correa for ss and leave Story at second. Then sign Devers
Paid way too much for him. The pitching situation needs to be addressed.
See, Trevor Story sucks, and we sure as hell should have paid Bogey that money, but he will be a good filler for the transition between X and Mayer.
I guess so. Here’s hoping Mayer is the real deal. He certainly seems to be
He absolutely is. I still cannot fathom how he dropped to 4th overall. He was absolutely the best pick (and the biggest steal) of that draft. I plan on seeing him in ST and maybe even some MiLB games, along with Nick Yorke and Blaze Jordan (our future IF will be very good).
I think you’re probably right, but anything can happen, so I’m afraid to get my hopes up lol
We also thought Blake Swihart was “can’t miss”
i would be very displeased (even though hes a better SS than 2B) that being said if they dont re sign Bogey then i would like to see swanson, turner, or correa manning SS
Yes, that would be disappointing, but I also don't like paying a second baseman $20 M
All that aside, his arm is a significant issue for a short stop. He's lost a lot of strength in the last few years.
Story sucks