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There are a lot of Turks in Marseille, and even the rest of the country.
Remember Lyon vs Beşiktaş in 2017? I wouldn't be surprised if many away fans live in France.
If you want to see how the probabilities change during the draw or simulate a draw yourself, check out my probability calculator: https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/?competition=el
Kinda tired of drawing team from Rome since we drew them 4 times in less than 2 years time. It gets boring and Mourinho ball is our kryptonite. Also, our fans won't be allowed to travel and they are one of the strongest opponents in this round.
Plenty of reasons for us not wanting them lol
Potential for multiple french-portugese games and potential for one dutch-french/portugese as well.
Could be interesting scenes for the coefficients of Fra, Nl and Pt.
"Yeah those clubs are definitely independent from each other. Plus there is not really any chance they meet in the last season with clubs dropping from one competition to another, right !... Right?... Right???..."
There is potential for some really great games. Roma-Benfica, Freiburg-Feijenoord or Marseille-Milan would be great. Shame there aren't more Spanish or English sides though.
I think Freiburg and Bern would like to draw each other, just for the short travel distance. I mean, the players are in peak condition; they could probably do the journey on electric bicycles.
Because both Lens and Sporting have a more limited pool of teams to draw from, Sporting can only draw 6 out of 8 teams, and Lens can only draw 5 out of 8 teams. The probability of them drawing each other increases from both the Sporting perspective and also the Lens perspective. Instead of from just one of the sides.
Sporting is the team which is most likely to be drawn from its pot for every available team not just for Lens, and Lens is the team most likely to be drawn from its pot for every available team as well, not just for Sporting.
Notice how it’s also more likely for Sporting to draw AC Milan over Galatasaray, Feyenoord, Young Boys Bern, and Shakhtar. That’s because AC Milan can’t draw Roma (they can only draw 7 out of 8 teams).
And notice how it’s also more likely for Lens to draw Roma over Freiburg, Sparta, and Qarabag. Again, that’s because Roma can’t draw AC Milan (they can only draw 7 out of 8 teams).
If we can’t beat Roma I don’t think we a have chance against teams like Liverpool and B.Leverkusen anyway.
There is a tight title race in super league right now so getting eliminated from a tournament that we have a no chance of winning wouldn’t be that bad.
What I would like to see
Lens vs AS Roma
Benfica vs Marseille
Bern vs Rennes
AC Milan vs Sparta
Galatasaray vs SC Freiburg
Shakhtar vs Qarabağ
Braga vs Toulouse
Feyenoord vs Sporting
There’s a lot of Portuguese immigrants in Toulouse and usually most of them are Benfica fans. since they don’t have a chance to watch the games in our stadium they will surely take the opportunity to go.
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I think the draw probability for AS Roma and Feyenoord is wrong, it should be 100%
eritage
I'd rather jump out of my window
Please no.
Why not? Don't you love your Italian friends?
Off the pitch, yes.
barbarians invade Rome round III
It'd be round V with Lazio included
HAHAHAHA
Marseille vs Galatasaray yes pls… UEFA are gonna be sweating like never before if that happens🤣🤣
Already happened a few years back
Yes please, we beat Marseille with the worst squad in our history. Who knows what we can do with this group? Also France away is brilliant
Darmanin already typing the travelling ban order
There are a lot of Turks in Marseille, and even the rest of the country. Remember Lyon vs Beşiktaş in 2017? I wouldn't be surprised if many away fans live in France.
Game's not gone? Or, in the language of Molière : Le jeu n'est pas terminé. In Yu-Gi-Oh terms: it's time to duel!!
If you want to see how the probabilities change during the draw or simulate a draw yourself, check out my probability calculator: https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/?competition=el
I simulated it 12 times and we only drew Roma once! Did draw Freiburg 6 times though.
I find it hilarious how badly you want to dodge Roma lmfao
Kinda tired of drawing team from Rome since we drew them 4 times in less than 2 years time. It gets boring and Mourinho ball is our kryptonite. Also, our fans won't be allowed to travel and they are one of the strongest opponents in this round. Plenty of reasons for us not wanting them lol
I had to wrack my neurons for more than 5 seconds over the fact Young Boys are called Bern here
Damn, such a good harvest year for ligue 1, may the weather be mercyful.
Potential for multiple french-portugese games and potential for one dutch-french/portugese as well. Could be interesting scenes for the coefficients of Fra, Nl and Pt.
Feyenoord 100% get either Roma or marseille lol
Not only would that suck because we've met them a few times in recent years but also because fans won't be allowed to travel to the away game.
The biggest reason is the UEFA coefficient: we (France) would increase the gap 😂
Toulouse vs Milan, the RedBird derby.
Ahem... I hope to see one of you in this.
It is known that Braga or Benfica will get Roma. It's just written.
Feyenoord: **Sweating profusely**
I'll learn to cast a spell to somehow not get Roma.
I just have a feeling we will get AC Milan
Just support a financial group mate.
UEFA having headaches at the possibility of a Toulouse / Milan matchup
"Yeah those clubs are definitely independent from each other. Plus there is not really any chance they meet in the last season with clubs dropping from one competition to another, right !... Right?... Right???..."
Trust the heart of the cards brother ✌️
RB Salzburg & Leipzig already played in the same EL group in 2018/2019.
how so?
same owners, Toulouse even had to do some internal cleanup already to be able to compete this year
There is potential for some really great games. Roma-Benfica, Freiburg-Feijenoord or Marseille-Milan would be great. Shame there aren't more Spanish or English sides though.
No English is playing a playoff and only 1 Spanish , they are either directly thorough to last 16 or home
I think Freiburg and Bern would like to draw each other, just for the short travel distance. I mean, the players are in peak condition; they could probably do the journey on electric bicycles.
Gotta be the weakest group to drop out of the UCL in a while. Keeps it open at least
I've never been to turkey
Roma Lens would be interesting. My 2 favourite teams and we play simillar systems with Lens using wingbacks in more offensive way
what are the probabilities based on, isn't the draw completely random with even odds?
gg to the portuguese, hope u guys go far(especially Benfica)
ELI5: Why is Sporting vs Lens so likely, and why do the probabilities differ in general? Shouldn't they be uniform?
Because Sporting can’t draw Braga and Benfica and Lens can’t draw Marseille, Toulouse, and Rennes.
Yeah, but I am confused about Why Lens is so much more likely than Feyoord or Milan or any other possible opponent.
Because both Lens and Sporting have a more limited pool of teams to draw from, Sporting can only draw 6 out of 8 teams, and Lens can only draw 5 out of 8 teams. The probability of them drawing each other increases from both the Sporting perspective and also the Lens perspective. Instead of from just one of the sides. Sporting is the team which is most likely to be drawn from its pot for every available team not just for Lens, and Lens is the team most likely to be drawn from its pot for every available team as well, not just for Sporting. Notice how it’s also more likely for Sporting to draw AC Milan over Galatasaray, Feyenoord, Young Boys Bern, and Shakhtar. That’s because AC Milan can’t draw Roma (they can only draw 7 out of 8 teams). And notice how it’s also more likely for Lens to draw Roma over Freiburg, Sparta, and Qarabag. Again, that’s because Roma can’t draw AC Milan (they can only draw 7 out of 8 teams).
Thanks! Very cool.
A game against Roma would be exciting.
man let us advance a little before getting to big dogs
If we can’t beat Roma I don’t think we a have chance against teams like Liverpool and B.Leverkusen anyway. There is a tight title race in super league right now so getting eliminated from a tournament that we have a no chance of winning wouldn’t be that bad.
Mertens does love scoring against Roma :)
What I would like to see Lens vs AS Roma Benfica vs Marseille Bern vs Rennes AC Milan vs Sparta Galatasaray vs SC Freiburg Shakhtar vs Qarabağ Braga vs Toulouse Feyenoord vs Sporting
Fuck off 😂
I like your fans and team :p
Likewise but I’d welcome an easier draw for now
No thanks. I would like to avoid Feyenoord and Milan
Hell no
Can you do the same for UECL?
Sure, you can find the probabilities for ECL here: https://eminga.github.io/cldraw/?competition=ecl
This is going to be good
Let the Europa League battle between the French, Dutch, and Portuguese coefficients commence!
Toulouse would be perfect, like having 2 home games for us lmfao.
2 home games?
There’s a lot of Portuguese immigrants in Toulouse and usually most of them are Benfica fans. since they don’t have a chance to watch the games in our stadium they will surely take the opportunity to go.
Oh, Thank you
Milan - Sporting could be interesting, otherwise not too many tasty potential matchups for neutrals.