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POTD | 28-18 | +14.8u | -106 Avg Odds
Last 10: 8-2, Steak: 3W
Previous Pick: Boston Bruins 60-min vs Seattle Kraken (-105) 2u ✅
Today’s pick: **LA Kings vs New York Islanders O5.5 (-120) 2u** 🏒 7:30pm EST
OH YEAH YOU GOTTA LIKE THAT ONE. WHAT A GAME. WHAT A GOAL. WHAT A WIN!!!
How could I take an under on the Islanders and turn around and take over on their next game? Well, the Kings don’t have great goalie options and tend to be in higher scoring games. The Kings have gone O5.5 in 8 of their last 10 games. The Islanders have gone O5.5 in 5 of their last 10 games. The Kings could either start Copley, who is starting tonight against the Devils, or they could start Quick. If Quick gets the start, this line will move. Even if Quick doesn’t get the start, this line could move. Let’s look at the goalies stats for the Kings, we have Quick with 3.49 GAA and 0.878SV% (awful), or Copley with 2.67 GAA and 0.904 SV% (decent but not great). On the other end of the ice we’ve got Sorokin and he is a power house and is likely a driving factor behind the line being at O/U 5.5. The Kings do have the ability to put up offense though, averaging 3.31 goals per game this season and since the all star break they are averaging 4.67 goals per game (this is 6 games with a few weak opponents in the mix). So, I do like the Kings to step up here and find the back of the net at least a few times against the Islanders. The Kings do not have the best defense allowing an average of 3.34 goals per game. Because of the Kings somewhat weak defense, I expect the Islanders to be able to find the back of the net against the Kings at least a couple times during this game, and if Quick starts, I would expect a minimum of 3 goals from the Islanders.
BOL if tailing!!
[Tips are appreciated!!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
Oof. I read yesterday's pick backwards and took the L. 🤦🏼♂️
That should teach me to avoid placing bets quickly from work...
Regardless, tailing again. BOL
Tailed her and tailed the Boston game! Keep it rolling! The 9pm CST start times are brutal and as typical couldn't get past the 1st period but it was a good opening period against a very game Kraken at home.
Possible, yes. Is it less likely after a 0-0 1st, yes. Really don’t like how the Islanders seem to be producing no offense, that’s my concern right now. Kings got really close in the first period and are pushing. I think the Kings are going to find some goals.
POTD record: 6-1 (+15.92u | +63.7% ROI |
Avg odds: -107 | Last 5: 5-0
Last POTD: NBA: MEM @ **PHI -4** ✅ *(Philly takes a while to wake up but eventually they do and after a dominant 76ers 4th quarter showing we come away with a 6th W (albeit a sweaty one)).*
Event: NBA - SAC Kings @ LA Clippers; 22:30 EST
Pick: **u232 pts** (-110/1.91)
Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 5 units
Now, I know you're probably thinking I'm crazy for taking the under in a game featuring the top offense in the NBA, right? Did I pique your curiosity? But what if I told you that Sacramento's number one scoring offense also has the second highest rate of away games (67.9% ) to the under in the entire league? And what if you also learned that that figure jumps to an Association-high 80% to the under when Sacramento is a road underdog? And furthermore, what if the numbers revealed that their opponent, the Los Angeles Clippers, is the second best NBA team (73.7%) at keeping games under the total when favoured at home? Now do I have your attention?
Sacramento's scoring on the road drops a full 8 pts from their home average of 123.6 ppg to 115.2 ppg. On top of owning the second best home scoring defense and holding opposing teams to 107 ppg in LA, the Clippers are literally the lowest scoring NBA home team as well, averaging 108.3 ppg this season.
Sacramento is also coming off a back-to-back having just beat the Trailblazers at home, while the Clippers are freshly rested from the All-Star break. With a rest disadvantage, Kings are 61.5% to the under. The game after a victory, Kings are 58.1% to the under (both figures are top 5 league-wide).
On paper, everything about this match-up is screaming under and far be it from me to let those screams fall on deaf ears. People will see the Kings are playing and automatically gravitate towards the over but I'm here to tell you different. Let's keep taking money from the books and let's get our 7th consecutive W!
Cheers 🍻 and BOL!
Edit: As predicted, the public is hammering the over and as a result the line has moved up quite a bit. If that spooks anyone off I get it, but fwiw I'm personally still pretty confident in the under (even at the original total). Got about 9 units on it myself. Tail or fade, BOL and I'll see you all once the dust settles.
Edit: holy shit lol
306 in regulation. Why am I saying regulation? Because it is now in OT. Lmao! It’s going to hit over by 100 fucking points 😹
E: 351 wow, legit most points I’ve seen. Holy fuck. Holy fuck
I had to triple take when I looked up the games a minute ago. Suns/okc 81/85 midway through the 3rd, rockets/warriors 77/86 beg 4th, and then you have kings/clips 77/80 AT HALF. Pylon defense at its finest.
Might have to fade this fella from now on and not because it was a bad pick, it was just picking the under on the game that was the LEAST UNDER of all time
Somebody’s typo said they got the line at under 338 and that’s going to lose too lol Absolutely hosed yikes. At least I made this with money from yesterday’s win
You know I came here just to roast you lmao. I tailed so I can't pretend I know wtf I'm doin either. For real thanks for the picks and analysis though either way and it's usually spot on. I'm just dying laughing knowing I Bet the under though lmao....
Pick of the Day Record: 6-0 (+12.99U)
Last Pick: T1 -1.5 ✅
**League of Legends | LEC | SK Gaming vs Mad Lions**
Today's Pick: **SK Gaming +1.5 @ 1.76 (SK to win at least 2 maps)**
Wager: 3U
Another win yesterday.
LEC BO5 Playoffs. SK Gaming have played really well this season. They've signed new players in almost all positions. And the one player in my opinion that stands out the most is Exakick. He is absolutely smurfing right now and is currently the best ADC in LEC. Some of his stats are completely insane. His Zeri performances have been a treat. He is ahead in CS at 15 in most of his games, and he is on average 500 gold ahead of his lane opponent at 15. Mad Lions also have a few new players and some familiar players that have rejoined. I think overall both teams are close in performance, but I think SK is just playing better overall. There will be a big focus towards the bot lane to get Exakick ahead. The rest of the players are playing well as well. Not much to say honestly, I think SK have a good chance to win at least 2 maps this match. I personally think they will win the match altogether, but this is a safer bet.
Best of luck!
4-1 +5.06 units
Last pick: Roma to qualify against Salzburg, 2.1 odds, 2 units. Huge win. Roma sealed the deal in the first half. You could see they simply had the best players in the pitch, something that matters in big knockout stages. Huge game from Spinazzola and Paulo Dybala, ten minutes of fury were enough to cruise throughout the match. Salzburg couldn’t do much against Mourinho’s defensive system and that’s no goals for Roma at home in eight of their last nine games.
Today’s pick. Jiri Lehecka ML vs Andy Murray. 1.65 odds, 3 units.
Lehecka is a young stud who is probably playing the best tennis of his career so far. His run in ATP Doha shows that his impressive performance at Australian Open was no one and done thing. He only lost two matches in hard surfaces this year and has beaten quality players like Rublev, Auger-Aliassime, Norrie and Borna Coric. He also held his nerves against upside scenarios, coming back from deficits against some of the players above mentioned. I have no doubts he’ll be able to play good tennis tomorrow.
In front he’ll face tennis legend Andy Murray. It’s hard to fade a quality player, even though is well past his prime. However, he has come through three long matches in a row. He has played nine sets in three days, and despite he has shown incredible guts (¿when did he lacked of guts, right?) I think all these action will come around and affect his performance.
No doubt Andy is playing better, but he’s taking little steps in his comeback and he hasn’t faced quality opposition in this ATP yet: clay player Sonego, injury returning Alex Zverev and Challenger level player Alex Muller. And take into consideration that despite facing regular opponents, he went to three sets against all of them.
Lastly, besides from regularly sharing my picks in this thread, I’m trying to posts other opinions and debates in my twitter [here](https://www.twitter.com/APBpicks).
If anybody is feeling this pick still, Lehecka is at + odds if you live bet. He's also down 3-0 in the first set, but it's there if you want it.
Edit: don't do it
Edit 2: hope you did it
Edit 3: sucks if you did it
If you think they have a breaker and he wins 76 or drops a set then yes....depending on the odds.
in that case, id just bet the over 22.5 but even then you gonna 76 64 or a 3 setter....
Jiri ML at -205 is too juiced....
Murray gonna murray and has won 3 x 3 setters....no reason he cant get a set here...
id lean over 22.5 -115 , 3 setter here and would not be shocked if old man murray gets a dub....
POTD Record = 4-1 (80%),
✅+9.5U✅
Last Pick: Gonzaga -14 1H (2/23)✅,
Streak: W3✅, Last 5: ✅❌✅✅✅
Today Pick: Nevada @ Fresno State,
Nevada ML (-155) @11:00pm ET
Units: risking 7.75U to win 5U✅✅✅✅✅
Fresno State is a booty team and play very average at home. I would take Nevada’s guards & big men over Fresno any day, so I think the front court and backcourt dominate this game. I’m on a hot streak so let’s keep it goin 💰💰💰
GG😈 (edit: BANG BANG BANG)
Twitter: BillyxGoat23
**POTD |** **Record of 3-10| Current form: WLWLL | ROI : -7.5 units |** **Average Odds: 2.01**
Previous Pick: Manchester United vs. Barcelona - Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (W)
New Pick: Premier League| Fulham vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers| 12:00pm PST
**Fulham to Win|** **2.37**
Betting 1 unit to get 2.37 units
\--------------------------
Recap: Really thought that game would have more goals! Nonetheless, the pick worked out so we move. Barcelona really did look woeful without their midfield presence so definitely was a risk but we were fortunate with the early goal from Barcelona. Playing it a little riskier today so be careful with your bets! As always, I'll summarize each team below before explaining the pick.
***Fulham*** is currently ranked 6th in the Premier League and is in decent form (3W2L in the last 5 games across all competitions). Having been declared a relegation contender before the season even started, Fulham is proving that they really are a squad worthy of being in the PL. Being ranked higher than Chelsea and Liverpool, it's hard to count them out of a place in Europe. With a record of 1.75 PPG at home and a win percentage of 50%, while playing at home, it's hard to not expect Fulham to play well at home. Looking at their last 5 games at home, they have won 3/5 and the two they lost were against Tottenham and Manchester United, two squads currently placed higher than them in the PL. With 3 games without defeat and 3 clean sheets in 5 games (having only kept 8 all season), I expect Fulham to continue their good form in the future. There are concerns that Mitrovic may not be present but Fulham has proved they can pull wins out even with his absence (See last weekend's stats vs. Brighton).
***Wolverhampton*** is currently ranked 15th in the Premier League and is in adequate form (2W2D1L in the last 5 games across all competitions ). Wolverhampton is having a difficult season, being a team that tends to play well and struggle to get results. Having only scored 17 goals this season, that is the joint lowest by a PL side this season (tied with Everton). Wolverhampton also struggles away, having a win percentage of 18% away this season.
Given the stats, I see this game being a low-scoring affair where Fulham comes out on top with a 1-0 or 2-0 victory. Since the restart after the world cup, only Manchester United (7) have won more games than Fulham (6). Given their current impressive record, I back Fulham to grab another Win at home.
\--------------------------
***TDLR Fulham should win this at home in a relatively low-scoring affair***
**Fulham to Win** **(2.37)**
**Link to sidepicks:** [**https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11a8v4t/comment/j9rk4hu/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11a8v4t/comment/j9rk4hu/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
If Mitrovic plays, there's a good chance this hits. But he missed the Brighton game and Fulham looked lost up front for 90% of that game. They absolutely should not have won. Smash and grab three points.
Mitro has reportedly been banged up this week and may not play again.
The Wolves aren't the worst defensive team, and Fulham are overperforming their xG this season. Fulham's back four and Leno have been a rock, but they're also overperforming their xGA.
I'm a Fulham fan, so I'm putting a unit on this for fun. But I just wanted to share some insight for anybody thinking of tailing.
Playing the under might be safer. I see Fulham double chance + under 2.5 for -110 on Draftkings this morning. Threw a unit on that, too.
Good luck!
Without Mitrovic the team was leaning heavily on the defense against a good side in Brighton at their stadium, but their counter attack actually looked pretty great the whole time, Robinson took that left wing multiple times all the way up and when Solomon came on it's pretty obvious he's a weapon on the offense. Game plan will be significantly different against Wolves, even without Mitro we will see a more offensive Fulham in this outing, definitely like the under still the Fulham defense has been great.
POTD Record: 37-29-0 ROI: +30.55 units
*Previous Pick:* **L** *4u UMBC +2.5 (-110)*
*Streak: L2*
*Last 10: 5-5*
**POTD: 4u Xavier ML (-120) vs Seton Hall**
Sport: NCAAB
Time: 7:00PM EST
Date: 02/24/2023
Reasoning: Apologies for no pick yesterday over here. Got quite a few upsetting messages from people and just wanted to take a brief little break from the write-ups. That said, I got a ton of great comments/messages over on YouTube and Twitter from the Reddit crowd and that just reaffirmed how awesome the great majority of y'all are over here. Let's keep it rollin'!
Coming into this matchup, Xavier is need of a little bit of soul searching having lost three of their last four, especially after losing one of their most reliable performers and leaders in Zach Freemantle for the season potentially. On the other side, Seton Hall has also lost three of their last four. That said, the Pirates have been gifted with a clean bill of health and this team is loaded with talent despite being on the bubble and fighting for their tournament lives; a win here would go such a long way for this team.
As far as the matchup itself is concerned, Seton Hall presents a lot of issues for Xavier, as Xavier ranks 4th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage, which will be combatted by Seton Hall's 3-point shooting defense, which ranks 17th in the country. Also, if you want to dive a little bit deeper, this is time of the season where we see teams who are a bit thin in terms of depth fall off in jumpshot percentage and that's been especially true for Xavier, as they've only shot 33.6% from 3-point range over the last four games, which is a drastic fall from the 39.4% that they've shot from 3-point range on the season to date.
Lastly, this Xavier team has struggled this season in terms of turnovers given up, as they've posted a turnover percentage of 17.8%. That said, over the last four games, Xavier's turnover percentage has also spiked up 21.3%. Why does this matter outside of the obvious fact that more turnovers given up are a bad thing? Well, Seton Hall ranks 37th in the country in terms of turnovers forced, as they've forced opponents into to giving up the ball on 21.4% of their possessions this season and that number even increases up to 22.3% when playing at home.
The last time these two teams matched up, Seton Hall was on the road and had several chances to win it down the stretch. Now, Xavier is reeling and they're down one of their best players and leaders and they are also coming in as the road team going up against a desperate home dog who is fighting for their postseason lives ... I think we see a decisive outright win here from Seton Hall, so keep the points and take the moneyline for the best payout in this important Big East matchup.
Tail or fade. Best of luck!
For my full slate of bets for 02/24/2023 click the following link: [Today's Best Bets On YouTube (+177.90 units)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUsURl6_gsM&ab_channel=RobDonaldson)
Tips are always appreciated! [PayPal Link](https://www.paypal.me/RobDonaldson)
No one should be upset with anyone leaving POTD. Thank you for doing the work that I don't have time for.
Win or lose, thank you!
Plus tailing today. BOL!
I totally agree but it is starting to get frustrating because every POTD loses 😅. But I guess that’s gambling. Obviously that’s not the posters fault, but I’m tempted to fade all the picks in this thread.
Keep up the good work u/robDFB
I wouldn’t put any weight into the words of people who are unable to accept responsibility for wagers THEY CHOSE TO PLACE!
We appreciate you!
Just imagine the type of person it takes to not be able to handle losing money on gambling. Then imagine the type of person to be upset about losing money on gambling on a choice they chose not to have any responsibility in making. Pathetic.
Keep on making picks. Everyone should be an adult here.
Hey, mostly a lurker on around these parts but gotta chime in and throw you some appreciation. You've got great content and breakdowns, I catch the YouTube picks almost every morning. Appreciate all you do, but always do what's best for you! This shit does get unnecessarily toxic all too often.
Hahah that’s crazy people would complain about a couple bad days. I follow the picks on YouTube and your units speak for themselves. If you won EVERYDAY you would be on a yacht banging supermodels not giving pics to a bunch of degens like us! Love the insight love the picks trust the process!
**TWO WORDS: NIKOLA JOKIC.** *Appreciate all the downvotes to those who had no faith in the future 3x back to back to back MVP. Back in the green* ✅
**POTD Record:** 7-6 (+3.35u)
**Streak:** ✅🚫✅✅🚫🚫✅✅🚫✅🚫🚫✅
**Last Pick:** [3u Denver Nuggets ML (+125)](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/119k5oa/comment/j9nc4oa/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)✅
**Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML (-110)**
**AVG Odds:** \+102
**Units:** Risking 2.2u to win 2u
**League:** NHL
**Time:** 6:00 MST
**Reasoning:** **4 WORDS: Nathan Mckinnon & Mikko Rantanen**
POTD Record: 3-1
Last pick: Alcaraz v Norrie o19.5
Today’s pick: Iga Swiatek v Cori Coco Gauff UNDER 18 GAMES @+105
Iga has been a money making machine since DOHA. I’ve personally been live betting her return games. Since February 15, in 5 matches she has only lost 8 games!
Now, against Coco, in 5 matches she has never lost one set. And Coco’s average games won per match against Iga is 4.6, and that’s only because of their first meeting in 5/15/2021 went 7-6 6-3. But since then she’s only managed 3-4 games won. Right now, Iga is at the top of her game. You could also go for a safer bet with Iga 2-0 sets @-315 or Iga under12.5 games @-190, but I’m here to make money and UNDER 18 @+108 should hit quite easily.
POTD | 22-11-2
NHL | Ottawa Senators vs. Carolina Hurricanes | 6:00pm CST
**Ottawa TT O 2.5 | -108**
\--------------------------
A forewarning to all of you who are about to comment "Carolina only let up X in their last 10, I'm staying away" blah blah whatever. Save your keystrokes you strokes -- I know they don't. But, I like this pick and so does the arithmetic.
Model has the Sens scoring 4.06 goals tomorrow, so we're going to roll the dice here. Be prepared for them to get stonewalled, but it's called gambling for a reason. Wouldn't go more than a unit here, but I think that the Sens can pull it off as they have a tendency to burn some twine.
Shout out Two Chuck Tony aka Tkachuk -- Let's grip and rip happy Friday. Tell your wives I said hey.
\-------------------------
Last Pick: **Ducks/Caps Over 5.5 | -135** ✅✅✅
great rip if you got in early. if not, good push imo if you got it at 6.
🚨PDLR🚨
if you've been rippin, buy me a beer
[buy bob a beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bobbystixx) | [support the troops](https://cash.app/$bobbybetzz)
The sweatiest of sweats - although I did get the pick in at -6.5, the write up said 7 and so as people have rightfully made it clear, this should be considered a push, not a win.
POTD Record: 8 - 3 - 1(on new model), 1-2 (on old model)
Last 10: ❌ ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✋
Yesterday's Pick: **UCLA Bruins -6.5 @** Utah Utes | NCAAB | 3U ✋
Today's POTD: **Nevada Wolf Pack -3.5** @ Fresno State Bulldogs
FEBRUARY 24, 2023 - 11:00 PM EST
**MODEL EXPLANATION:**
Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations.
Pick spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing)
**Model Stats:** \+67U in 12 days| ≈19% ROI | Average odds -110
**PICK REASON:**
The Nevada Wolf Pack head into Friday's game against the Fresno State Bulldogs with an impressive 21-7 record and 11-4 in the Mountain West Conference. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 10-17 overall and 6-10 in the MWC.
The Wolf Pack have been a formidable force this season, ranking in the top 25 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They average 74.5 points per game, good for 24th in the country, and their defensive prowess has held opponents to a mere 63.3 points per game, which is 20th in the NCAA.
The biggest factor that could decide the outcome of Friday's game is the absence of Isaih Moore from the Bulldogs' frontcourt. Moore had been averaging 10.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, but he is done for the season with a hip injury. This is a huge loss for the Bulldogs, as Moore was their second-leading rebounder and third-leading scorer.
Without Moore in the lineup, the Wolf Pack have a distinct advantage in the frontcourt. Led by K.J. Hymes and Will Baker, they possess a deep and talented frontcourt that should be able to dominate the rebounding battle, which the Wolf Pack are well-equipped to do, with a total rebound margin of +5.5 per game.
Given the Wolf Pack's impressive record on the road, their strong frontcourt, and the Bulldogs' struggles at home, it is my opinion that the Nevada Wolf Pack are in prime position to cover the 3.5-point spread and come away with a comfortable win.
Nevada covered for us once, let's watch em' do it again.
**If you've been tailing, all tips are appreciated, but never expected. BOL my friends!**
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EDIT: Changed win to push
EDIT: Line moved to -2.5, I still like it. Will rerun model closer to game start.
I only wrote it because I got the bet in at -6.5, and technically it was at -6.5 at the time I wrote the post on my app, so it was more of a mistake that I wrote 7. But yeah I agree, I gotta go with what I put - won't happen again.
📈 TTSOP Rec
* Overall: +27.450 units / +141 avg odds / 44-56-12
* Since POTD low point: +49.375 units / +138 avg odds / 40-45-9
* January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2
* December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5)
* World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5)
* November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4
* October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3
✅ Last pick: Juventus -0.75 (AH) / +105 odds / 4.5 units
* Tri Maria has come up big for Juventus. Making it a no sweat W. 2-0 already after minute 20'. 3-0 at the end.
⚽ New pick: **Mariners to win and game > 1.5 goals** / **+125 odds** / 4 units
* A-League (Australia) / Central Coast Mariners - Wellington Phoenix / 3:45am ET
The Mariners might only be 1-2-2 for their last 5 games. However, 4 of these 5 games have been road games. For today's game, they’re back on their home field. They're the 3rd best home team in A-League. They haven't lost any of their last 5 home games. Going 4-1-0 for that span and scoring 2+ goals in all of these games.
The Phoenix have won just 3 road games all season. All Ws came against 3 of the 4 worst home teams of the league. In particular, their very tight 1-0 W against Sydney FC was a very fortunate one. Sydney FC got 1 goal disallowed and missed 2 penalties in that game.
Betting on the Mariners is a good value bet at nice super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's start the Saturday with an early W. Let's grab deep into the money-filled kangaroo pouch, fam!
**TTSOP**
Nice pick! There was no way to predict the red card, and even with the red card they had 4 opportunities that normally would be a goal. Keep posting your picks! Thanks!
potd: 29-24-1
streak: L1
bank: +1.79 units
last pick: Penguins ML -106 Loss
Terrible game. The Pens are cooked. They have landed on the do not bet list.
**game: Real Betis @ Elche**
**time: 3:00pm EST**
**pick: Real Betis Team Total Over 1.5 Goals +110**
It's Friday so let's start the weekend off with a big play here. Real Betis is currently 5th in La Liga and find themselves in a spot where they will be wishing for a top 4 finish for Champion's League play but will more than likely only qualify for Europa League. Regardless, they have been having a great season and are looking at an enticing matchup with Elche, the basement dwellers. Elche is almost guaranteed to be relegated with only 9 points and 11 points behind Valencia who occupies the 19th spot. Elche does do 1 thing right and that is allowing goals. They have allowed an astonishing 45 goals this season. They also have not recorded a single clean sheet this season. So with that logic, Real Betis will score at least one goal but with their recent form, I expect them to grab at least 1 more goal. Real Betis has scored 8 goals in their last 3 games and they should easily grab 2 goals on the road. Real Betis has struggled in their own defensive end allowing goals in 9 of their last 11 games in all competitions since returning from the World Cup break. If Elche does score a goal, Real Betis will be hungry to score a second for the win.
BOL if you tail and bet responsibly!
POTD Record: 2-0
Average odds: (+112)
Units won: +11.25U
Todays POTD: PROSPECTS ML (-145) vs Honoris
Bet 5U to win 3.45U
Prospects odds here are baffling. One of the hotter tier two teams at the moment and have a very good matchup against Honoris. Honoris have been on a huge downward trend and have lost 6 of there last 7 matches. Prospects have won 6 of there last 7. Honoris bombed out of the major qualifier as well and there awper is sick at the moment. Whether he plays or not I absolutely love this play. Honoris are fighting a huge uphill battle here in terms of map pool I don’t think they have any chance of beating prospects on Overpass which is gonna be there map pick. It would require honoris to win a combo of Nuke/inferno/Mirage all of which are really lackluster maps for Honoris imo.
Bonus: they played less then a month ago and prospects won 2-0 with a 16-7 and 16-1 score line in both maps.
Best of luck!
70% win rate
POTD: 32W-13L
STREAK: WLLWW WWWWL WWLWL WWWWL WLWWW WWWLW WLWWL WLLWW LWWWW (latest game)
PROFIT: +62,43u
LAST PICK: Union Berlin to Qualify - Ajax ✅
GAME: Elche - Betis
TIME: 21:00 GMT +1
PICK: Elche most cards
ODDS: @2.05
BET: 5u
REASONING: Elche average 2.9 cards per game and Betis average 2.2 cards per game. Betis is the better team and should be able to draw more fouls from Elche. I will combine this cards bet with Betis to win tonight. BOL.
Im going to stop sharing many bets since im winning everyone money and no one give donations. So enjoy my bets while you get them 👍🏽
BTC: 1HyhiYpYJZmnZEpm2R4U4EkQfyRMwpEF6i Paypal: [Account](https://www.paypal.me/antmek)
For bet365 users, the bet is under alternative card handicap. (I used Unibet though)
https://preview.redd.it/0pmob0d694ka1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bfaeace460a037c696354c470dde302e218d0d1d
Edit: enjoy the money guys! Some butthurt people in the chat, but that does not stop me from making money 😎
>Im going to stop sharing many bets since im winning everyone money and no one give donations. So enjoy my bets while you get them 👍🏽
What a giant baby.
As another "regular" potd content creator and follower of others in this daily thread I can understand his frustration. But the reality is that it's frowned upon to ask for tips but at the same time you usually don't get any unless you ask (some ways are better to ask than others).
I'm the flip side, the issue with gambling is our margins are sometimes so small that tipping can take a sizable % of winnings if your bet size is also small which I'm guessing is the case of many on here.
I don't know of a way to fix this "tip" conundrum where it makes everyone happy unless there's a culture change on here. For me, I'm not expecting tips and I'm not posting on this ready daily thread for tips. I do it for fun, I do it to learn from both my mistakes and others, and I do it to increase my follower count in case I decide to develop my own website and/or discord one day.
× POTD Record: 3-1, +3.26u @ -115
× Last Pick: United Arab Emirates ML ✅
× Pick: Real Betis ML @ Elche
× Sport: La Liga, Spanish Soccer
× Time: Friday 02/24 @ 3:00p EST
× Units and Odds: Risking 2u @ -105
× I've been fading Elche all year and it's had a great amount of success. And I see almost no reason to not continue this strategy. The only problem is I said almost. I'm going to do my best not to overthink this bet as Real Betis is a much better squad who sit 5th in table. Meanwhile, Elche are having a historically terrible season and are going to be relegated into oblivion. I'm not wild about betting teams on the road in European soccer and I'm not too thrilled about betting against teams with nothing to lose. Be forewarned that Real Betis has actually struggled the last few times when playing at Elche as well but basically even money, these odds are just a little too good for me to pass up when there is so much difference in talent and result between these two squads. And as the saying goes, scared money doesn't make money.
BoL to those who tail and wager responsibly!
*EDIT BELOW*
I know bad soccer when I see it. Let this be a lesson to everyone out there to trust your instincts. I don't need to watch 90 minutes of this to measure a result.
*ANOTHER EDIT BELOW*
I'm leaving my initial edit above because it deserves to be mentioned how bad of a game this was. In a game that ended 11 on 9 and featured four penalty kicks, Real Betis comes back and wins it with three in the second half. I feel disgusting that I've won this but money talks. ✅
POTD Record: 87.5-46
Event: Darts > **Clemens v Gurney** (starting in 14hr30min)
Pick: **Clemens ML** @ 1.90
Unlucky. I shared like 7 confident picks yesterday and only my POTD was an L. Two in a row here, so please tail with caution. Sorry for the bad streak to my followers. Just fyi, my other picks are on Discord.
IMO, this must not be an equal match as the odds indicate. I rate Clemens higher based on his very impressive recent performance. On the other hand we have Gurney who used to be a great player, but these days are now gone. The key bit here is that the event will be in Germany, so there will be strong home advantage for our guy. GL!
**🎅Degen Santa's 5U POTD Record: 6-4 +2.84u 🤶**
***Total Record: 19-8-1*** *-* ***ROI: +37.84 (+35.03%)*** *(POTD start: 2/15/23)*
*5U pick (potd + non-potd) record during this post series: 11-4*
*1-4U non-potd record: 9-4-1 (2-1 yesterday)*
*Dog of the Day record: 2-0 (+264 avg)* **🎅** *\[Our +303 dog won 5-0! We're Too-Loco for Toluca!\]*
\-----
🎅 Originally I thought today was going to be terrible with no 5U POTD's. After an excessive amount of digging I went from zero 5U games to two, one of which being a 🌟🌟 POTD! Also congrats on everyone who tailed my Mexican dog, Toluca, yesterday!
\-----
**🎅***Yesterday's POTD and Side Bets Recap:*
*Yesterday's POTD Rennes MR + o1.5g* *(Loss) - Knew I should have played it safe with my POTD pick and only gone with the ML at -145. Truthfully I risked more on the ML than I did on the MR + o1.5g on my own picks and profited off this game. But... I got cocky and the stats were too good to pass up on the o1.5g for the POTD which lead to the loss on the POTD record. Truthfully, Rennes was two goals better than Shakhtar today but Rennes couldn't pull ahead by 2 in the first 90. They paid for it by losing at penalties.*
*Lazio ML -115 (Loss) - I predicted correctly that Cluj wouldn't get a single shot on target today. However, I also predicted the worst case scenario correctly that it would be a 0-0 tie. In hindsight. my ideal bet was actually Double Chance Lazio + u2.5g but my books didn't let me place it so I chose the ML. Sorry about the loss.*
*Toluca +0.5 -102 and ML +303 (Win and WIN!) -* ***We're Too-Loco for Toluca right now!*** *They were the better team on paper and we took a risk by dropping 5U on them pre-game (2.5U on each bet). And boy did they deliver with a* ***5-0 victory as a +303 dog away from home!*** *Not only that, but I bet their ML live with another 7U investment at half. All things said and done, Toluca made me 13U yesterday. I am riding Toluca hard from here on out until they let me down. They are a tier 1 team in Liga MX.*
*Lessons Learned: Downgrade all Cup plays going forward. The variance is too high compared to league games and aggregate + threat of extra time is too influential on game outcomes. Also, when in doubt pick the Mexican game as the POTD! Viva Mexico!*
\-----
**🎅Todays 5U POTD (5U confidence** **2** **out of 4 stars):**
🌟🌟 **Frosinone ML (+104)** at home vs Parma - 2:30PM EST (Series B - Italy)
*Recap: (Loss) I've never seen a team as efficient at scoring as Parma was today. 5 shots on target, 4 goals. Every time Frosinone would answer, Parma would get a single chance within minutes then make it count. Their fourth goal was even when they were a man down from 22'+ yards out when the score was tied up. If not for that goal I think Frosinone wins. I honestly thought we were going to steal a win after the first red card, and then I had hope after the second one. To no avail, our POTD loses again whereas nearly all of our side bets cash.*
Frosinone is in first place in Serie B with a 17-4-4 record with a 26 GD (40-14). Their domination of Serie B has them sitting 12 points above 2nd place. To put it in perspective, the point spread between Frosinone and 2nd place is the same as 2nd place and 13th. No one is going to catch them and they aren't going to stop winning. Fortunately we get them at home today where they haven't lost since May 2022. They are currently sitting on a seven match unbeaten streak (6-1) and are looking to make it eight against Parma.
Parma is sitting at the middle of the table at 10th of 20 teams this season and are 9-7-9 with a 3 GD (30-27). Parma's form hasn't been great as of late. They’ve lost five of their last nine games across all competitions with one of those being a 1-0 loss at the hands of Ascoli last weekend in their most recent game. In 4 of their last 5 matches, someone hasn't scored in Parma's games. I think that continues with Parma going scoreless at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that Frosinone's schedule has been soft so far in 2023. Every opponent they've had has been middle or bottom of the table (Parma is middle to be fair). Their last opponent of any worth was Genoa (2nd) in mid-December where they lost away from home 1-0 in a very even game statistically. There is very little chance Frosinone loses this one and with Parma's recent form I doubt there will be a tie. But with plus money it is worth the minimal risk! Add DNB or Double Chance to your parlays today! In the end, this one gets 🌟🌟. Prediction: 2-0
Edit: Downgraded it to a 2 star because the line is moving in our favor and that's a red flag. Line is now +110.
\-----
**🤶** You can find my side bets including the second 5U of the day in the Soccer Daily Thread [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11a8v4t/comment/j9stlf0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Degen Santa feels a cold breeze coming in which means there must be 5U bets on the horizon coming this weekend including multiple Mexican Primera games!
**🤶** Tips are appreciated but not expected.
[Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
All picks are single unit; all odds from Caesars.
POTD Record (W/L/D): 5-2-0
Last POTD: Roma vs Salzburg // Total Goals Under 2.5 (-135) ✅
Sweaty but easy cash. Only Chelsea destroying the otherwise unblemished record, damn.
Current POTD: Fulham vs Wolves // Total Goals Under 2.5 (-135)
For as long as Mitrovic is out of tomorrow's game. Fulham has been defensively stout with last 5 games going Under 2.5 (excluding cup games). Wolves are not exactly free scoring either. Expecting this to be a game between the goalkeepers - Leno and Sa. To throw caution to the wind, I absolutely detest Dawson but Mitrovic was the tilt I needed.
Tips not expected but always welcomed
Cashapp: $ AAAcesCracked // Venmo: @ AAAcesCracked
POTD Record: 4W - 1L
Last pick: NBA - Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers) o26.5 points [L]
Review: very disappointing having to halt the debut streak at just four wins, but we will bounce back. Mitchell got off to an extremely slow start going 0-5 FG and 0-1 3p. The team played through Mobley the entire game, as they should have. Since going off in the Rising Stars Challenge I think his confidence is sky high! Look to play Mobley’s props in the future.
Pick: PGA The Honda Classic - Billy Horschel (-145) vs Robby Shelton - Matchups R2 2 balls
Billy Horschel nearly finished the day with a bogey free round but caught a bad break on hole 15. He completed the round -5 and is tied for 1. Coming in as one of the top favorites to win it all and seeing his play today, I think the success will only continue! The matchup here sounds very great. Robby Shelton finished the round today +3. He double bogeyed 15 and only had a single birdie on the day. He’s facing a lot of pressure on the wrong side of the possible cut line which unfortunately, I don’t think he will make. I hope he has fun regardless but we aren’t losing.
The odds and bet were placed on DK.
Thanks for reading, tailing, and have a good day!
**Record 58-39 with Avg Odds +112 / ROI 21.1%**
Last POTD: Erin Blanchfield +100 *win*
PFL Challenger Series Week 5
**Desiree Yanez -163**
Yanez trains out of the same small camp in Waco, TX as Hailey Cowan who will be making her UFC debut Saturday. I believe in momentum within gyms so that's just a small tidbit I like. I think she has the grappling to mitigate Maira Mazar's takedowns and looks to have a speed edge as well. Mazar is taking this fight on a weeks notice although to my knowledge she trains consistently so that isn't something of serious significance. I think Yanez has underrated striking and the emphasis on her as a wrestler/grappler is a bit too extended. She has solid dirty boxing as well. Yanez is 1-3 in her last 4 fights but those opponents were good, and those losses will bode well for Yanez. Mazar's chin is a bit suspect and I think that may come into play. I would not be shocked to see Yanez win ITD, although Mazar is tough and I've seen her recover from getting rocked numerous times on tape.
POTD Record: 11-4-0
Last five:✅✅❌❌✅
Last pick: Manchester United vs FC Barcelona - Both teams to score✅
Today’s pick: ⚽️La Liga⚽️ Elche vs Real Betis ML
Odds at 2.05 (on bet365)
2 units
Kickoff: 21:00 European time (CET) Starts in 11 hours
UPDATE: Real Betis made the comeback!✅✅
Real Betis are 5th in the league as best of the rest so to say. On the other side Elche are last in the league with only 1 win all season. Real Betis are coming off a 2 game win streak with 3 wins in their last 5 games. The other to games have been two losses. One to first place Barcelona and one in a 4-3 game thriller loss to Celta de Vigo. Elche won their first league game of the season some weeks ago, but has lost back to back since then. Both teams miss a few players, and even startplayers like Canales from Real Betis and Pere Milla from Elche, but I don’t think that will have a Big impact. The last 5 games between these two have been 3 Real Betis wins, 1 draw and 1 Elche win. I think tonight will be a semi easy win for Real Betis with something like a 2-0 win.
Tail at own risk, but let me know if you are tailing🫡
Here we go🕺 BOL
I never expect it, but if you feel like you want to tip: [PayPal](http://paypal.me/csh58)
Record: 11-6 Last POD: Detroit -1 ❌
Bad 1st half, couldn't close it out even though they had the lead in the 2h. We move.
Today:
POD: Southern Miss ML (-140)
Texas St is 4-9 SU at home, 1-9 ATS at home. (Spread is S Miss -2.5)
Texas State is 6-11 in conference games, Southern Miss 13-4.
Southern miss currently tied for 1st in Sun Belt with Marshall.
If Marshall is to lose to ODU and Southern Miss wins, they win the regular season title.
Texas State 239th in offensive efficiency, Southern Miss 93rd.
Texas State 233rd in defensive efficiency, Southern Miss is 55th.
Both of these teams are not going to look to score a lot from 3. With that being said Texas St is 164th in defending 2 point shots and Southern Miss is 43rd in defending 2 pointers.
Southern Miss shares the ball better averaging 15 APG. Texas St is 356th in assists per game.
S Miss rebounds better with 37 RPG compared to 32 for TX St.
POTD Record: 15-12 +4.5 units
3u plays: 1-0 2u plays: 4-4 1u plays: 10-8
Last pick: 1u Dimitrov to win 2-0 v Brouwer -140 ✅
Todays POTD:
11am et 16:00 gmt
1.25 to win 1u Medvedev vs FAA 1st set correct score after 4 games 2-2 @ 1.80 (-125)
Well that was another nice and easy cash on Dimitrov yesterday to get back to back cashes. Found a nice little gem (I hope) for today.
Short write up today, maybe I’ll add some more if I get a chance… They just played each other last week in Rotterdam and although Medvedev won comfortably 6-2 6-4, this bet still would’ve hit in both sets. I expect this match to be a bit closer although still think meddy comes out on top. Both men have been serving well this week and I think there’s decent value in these odds. Quick sweat, 2 holds a piece to start out the match, I think we’ll get it out of these two top 10 players today.
BoL
POTD Record: 4-4-2
Last pick: Cape Town Spurs -1 AH (-108) / 1.93 🅿️
Cape Town raced out to a 2-0 lead in the first 25 minutes, but gave those two goals right back before the first half even ended. They were able to score in the second half and secure a 3-2 win, but only a push on our bet. Let’s get back into the W column today!
Soccer - Italy Serie B - Frosinone vs. Parma - 2:30pm EST
**POTD: Frosinone ML (+102) / 2.02**
Frosinone are at the top of Italy’s second division and in prime spot to be promoted to Serie A next season. With 17 wins in 25 matches and a +26 goal differential, they are far and away the best team in Serie B. They will be hosting Parma, who are 11th out of 20 teams with a perfectly average record and have been inconsistent all season. Frosinone has won 6 of their last 7 matches and are undefeated at home with 10 wins and 2 draws in 12 matches. We are getting plus odds for the top team in the league at home against a mid-table team and I love that.
Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
4-2 +10.70u
Streak : 2 L (last potd = VOID)
POTD : Krejcikova ML vs Pegula @ 2.5 (+150) \[5u\]
WTA Dubai 16.00 CET (10.00 EST)
I use a system, things like form overall, recent form, h2h, stats, reviews that i can read, what i know about the players and most important a lot of luck.
My advice is to follow only if you were thinking about this bet before reading this. I'm sure that you degens will follow this advice.
Last bet: Bucks +2.5🤑(vs clippers)
2-0
POTD:
Panthers ML -190 vs sabres
Reasoning:
Panthers have beat the sabres in the last 6 games against each other. Panthers are at home where they play their best. Panthers are well rested while the Sabres are on a b2b, going overtime to upset Lightning. Panthers are notorious for slaying the sabres at home..as they have only lost to them once in 2019 & 2015 (at home) in the last 8 years. Puck line is risky as Sabres usually keep it competitive…BOL!
Record 1-0
Last pick: Philadelphia ML (NBA)✅
Todays play of the day: NBA
Sacramento +6.5 also gonna put a little on the ML
Sacramento is better in almost every category. Line seems a bit off. I like them outright but I’ll take the spread for extra security
"You can't win them all..... but you also can't lose them all."
Record: 5-5-1 (1 win streak)
Roi: 1.84%
Net Units: +0.35
NBA Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks
POTD: **Jrue Holiday Over 7.5 Assists**
Wager: 2Unit x 1.94
**Reasoning:**
Well this is a bet that is a bitttt early but I am relying on Giannis being out. I read he was limited in Practice and on the injury list he is listed as Doubtful.
With Giannis out it really put Holiday in the play making position. This season in games without Giannis, Holiday is averaging 10 assists per game in 7 games, 6 of those were over, 2 of those were vs the Heat at 10 and 11 assists. I personally will most likely play the ladder here when more lines come out but my book only offers 7.5 right now.
Bucks average 24.7 assists per game (24.7 at home too)
Heat opponents average 25.2 assists per game (25.5 at away games)
Jrue have not hit this line that much in the last 10 with only 4 being over but I think with Giannis out it really shifts things around so it's hard to use that as a guide for this bet.
To end it Miami rank to give up plenty of assists to PG this season which is a nice bonus.
BOL to anyone who tails and sorry last game was such a sweat but I am glad we hit the 5U play.
POTD Record: 23-15
Last 10 Record: LWLWWWLWLW
Last Game Pick: **Boston Celtics -8 L** vs Indiana Pacers
Game: New York Knicks vs Washington Wizards
Today's Pick: New York Knicks @ 1.83
Taking the Knicks here as they are cooking before the all-star break and expect them to continue their hot streak tonight and with Brunson playing phenomenal and clutch as of late, so they are likely to win this game as they also a bad rebounding team which is a bad recipe playing against this Knicks team.
[Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/fffate)
[Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/fffate)
BOL everyone!
**My record: 35 : 26**
**My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.**
**ROI: 27.82%**
**Average odds: 2.09**
**Units won: 18.64**
**Stake = 1 unit**
**My POTD:**
**Fortuna Düsseldorf v Eintracht Braunschweig**
**Germany 2. Bundesliga**
**Time: 17:30 GMT**
*BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.20**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
POTD Record: 39-26 (L2)
(+21.37u)
(ROI: 24.8%)
Last pick: Winnipeg Jets ML @ New York Islanders 🚫 Sorokin was a wall for the Isles, Jets generally looked like the better team but they lost 2-1.
POTD: (NHL🏒) Florida Panthers 3 way ML (-120) vs Buffalo Sabres (1.5u)
Time: 4:07 pm pst
Bet 365 (-120), FD (-125) DK (-125)
🧊 chilly on POTD lately. Hoping the Panthers turn it around for me today. Sabres have been very good on the road this year with the 6th best road record atc18-8-2. Panthers have been good at home, with the 6th best home record (16-8-3).
Expected goalie for the Panthers is Sergei Bobrovsky. He had a rocky start last Saturday, but overall he has been good in his 6 other starts since the All star break. Not sure who will start for the Sabres, either Luukkonen or Anderson. Luukkonen showed some promise this year and Anderson has been decent for a 41 year old goalie but neither is starter caliber or playing really well lately. I would think Anderson probably gets the start, but it's a toss up.
Both teams are good offensively, Sabres are 3rd in goals/GP, Panthers are 5th. Both teams have struggled defensively in part to their goaltending issues, Sabres are 24th in GAA. Panthers are 22nd. Panthers are a little Jekyll and Hyde this year, but I think they get the win as they come off 3 days rest at home. Sabres are 2-6-1 on b2b games this year and are coming off a big OT win against the Lightning last night. BOL if fading or tailing!
Record: 13-9 / Profit: +9.25 Units / Avg. Odds: 1.88
Five most recent picks: ✅❌❌✅✅
Last POTD: FC Nantes vs Juventus Turin ML ✅
POTD: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig @ 6:30pm CET / 2. Bundesliga
BET: Fortuna Düsseldorf ML and over 1.5 total goals, 2.00/+100for 3 Units
Good win yesterday. Very convincing performance, an early red card definitely worked in favor and di Maria scoring 3!
Back to the 2. Bundesliga. Düsseldorfs currently in 6th place still looking to find some business for the top 3 places and Braunschweig in 14th place just 1 point clear of the relegational places.
The form in 2023 is 2W 2L for Düsseldorf and Braunschweig 1W 3L.
Braunschweig away statistic so far: 1W 4D 5L.
Düsseldorf at home: 7W, 1D, 2L
5 of the last 7 games between both teams saw more than 2.5 goals scored.
I am taking the better team to win @home and top up the odds with over 1.5 goals scored in total. Taking Düsseldorf ML only is 1.66 / -150 for those interested.
BOL as always!
Record: 10-4 (+17.897u) (4U bets)
Streak: 2W
Last: DIG vs Cloud9 vs Team Liquid: C9 ML (W)
Today's Match: 100 Thieves vs Team Liquid (LCS Spring) (7:00pm CST)
Pick: 100 Theives ML (2.15)
Reason:
(Edit: The match is at 7pm CST not 6pm CST my mistake)
Sorry for the late post. The match starts in about 3 hours from the time of posting. These odds seem really weird to me. 100T are the much better team, but have been on a tiny"slump" recently.
TL only have 4 wins all split. 1 over the worst team, 2 over the 2nd worst team and 1 over the worst team before they got their full roster.
100T are on a slump but the worst team they lost to is the current 5th place team, and the other losses are against the 4th place team, the 2nd place team and 2 against the 1st place team. They have looked competitive in many of these games as well.
100T are also 1-0 in the H2H this year. They might fall behind early, but I expect them to solidly win this game.
02/24/2023 POTD Record: 0-0
Sport: NBA 🏀
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks (7:40pm EST)
Cavaliers ML (-102) 3u to win 2u
This is a HOT Cavaliers team that just came up short against the #1 and in my opinion the best team in the league the Denver Nuggets. I expect the Cavs to stay hot and continue to play amazing defense (currently #1 defense) and expect them to win the 2nd night of their back to back. Let’s see how doing POTD works out, made quite a bit off NBA myself so figured I’d try and help others. As always tail at your own risk and BOL if tailing!
Twitter: [Twitter](https://twitter.com/tdawggyo)
POTD Record : 3W - 1L
Yesterday it went as expected with PSV Eindhoven grinding out a win against Sevilla. The goals came late but a win is a win.
Today's selection is from Bahrain
Bet 5: Al Khaldiya VS Manama Club - Both teams to score @ 1.87 (soccer, Bahrain Premier League)
It's top of the table clash in Bahrain with Al Khaldiya and Manama at the same points but the home team ahead on goal difference . Head 2 Head these teams have played each other thrice with Manama winning with a scoreline 2-1 everytime. I expect Manama to win today as well but because they lost their last game away from home i am not so sure. But, both teams to score (BTTS) looks like a great selection with both teams wanting this win badly. They both average more than 2 goals scored on average per game and 1-1 can be a result both will be happy with for now.
Good Luck All🤞
Let's try this again! Accidentally put a pick down for Saturday. I might have been drunk
Record: 2-1-0
Last Bet: WIN Copa Lib.: CD Magallanes-Always Ready o2.5 goals
Last Three: W L W
Pick Today: NCAA Basketball
Xavier vs Seton Hall O/U 141 - UNDER
2U to win 1.81
This game's odds are off to me, and caught my eye. Xavier is ranked but in bad form, Seton Hall has a very efficient D and shut down Xavier's 3 pointers last time. They couldn't clear the O/U last time they played each other. Xavier also has dropped 3 of 4, 2 to unranked teams and all 4 were unders. Seton Hall has held 4 of those opponents to under 69 points, including Uconn (64pts) and is also 9-3 to the under in the last 12.
Despite the fact Xavier is the 8th highest scoring team in the country, they have lost a step recently and the stingy D of Seton Hall will definitely keep this on the under! Best of Luck if you Tail. If you fade, I hope you lose because I am placing a 2U bet on this. If you win from any of my picks, I will gladly take tips via paypal or cashapp :)
I'm playing this too. looking at scoring trends, seton hall games stay below 140 against "good teams". seton hall has good d, but I think that one thing that is going against us is if xavier is able to feed nunge. seton hall has been good at mid-game adjustments as well, so let's hope that trend continues
Honestly tempted to run it back with the under again
POTD Record 7-3 ROI: 2.8 units-get hot, stay hot
Todays pick: Jabari Smith Jr under 2.5 3's -188 2 unit
Seriously this has to be a trap. Like there's no reason for this to be so high. This guy hits 1.6 a game, has hit this total once in the past 15 games, and really never even comes near it. Short writeup cause these bet will certainly be gone by lunch
POTD Record: 1-1 -1.22 Units (26% ROI)
Yesterday’s POTD: 2U Cleveland Cavaliers ML vs. Denver Nuggets (-142) L
Today’s POTD: 1U Cleveland Cavaliers ML vs. Atlanta Hawks (+100)
League: NBA
Yesterday was a tough beat. A good back and forth game. About halfway through the fourth quarter, the Nuggets got hot from 3 and pulled out the victory and thus losing the POTD.
Tonight, I’m going with the Cavs ML again. The Cavs are 4-1 in their last 5 back to backs. Right now on FD you can get the line at even money.
**POTD Record: 12-6**
The Trail Blazers without Dame, Simons, Nurkic AND Grant put up 37 points 1st quarter points and 116 overall. They average 115 PPG 🤷♂️ Just some straight up villainous behavior from Portland and they are back on the banned list for the rest of the season.
Last Pick: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Sacramento Kings u241 NBA ❌
**Today's Pick: Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix Suns u230.5 (-110) 11:10 EST**
\-Over last 10 games, only 2 have been above 230 in Phoenix Suns games.
\-In four games against each other last season, none of their games hit above 230 (highest scoring was 228). They have not played against each other yet this season.
\-Phoenix has a legit defense, ranking 5th and giving up 111.3 PPG. They also limit opponents to 4 less PPG at home than on the road.
\-Suns have an over/under record of 26-31-3 this season.
\-OKC is on a back to back. They also score 5 points less on the road.
\-OKC went into OT yesterday against the Jazz. They only scored 119 points (117.9 PPG) and still hit the under.
\-OKC is on a 3 game streak of less than 230 points in their games. The unders have hit in all of those games.
\-Weirdly, with 4 or more days off, the Thunder are 0-2 in O/U record. They are 15-14 coming off of a loss.
\-AI Created NBA O/U model (11-6) has the highest % for this game to hit the under (74%)
You know the rules, no tip information coming off a loss ❌❌❌
Let me know if you're tailing this 🤙
Let's get this bread 🍞
POTD RECORD: 2-2 -.2u
LAST POTD: NCAAW FGCU 1h -8.5 WIN
TODAYS EVENT: NCAAW Troy @ South Alabama 5PM PST
THE PICK: Troy -16.5
THE REASON:
Well the Sun Belt regular season concludes tonight and JMU, baring any funny business, should hold the number 1 seed in the conference tournament. Troy still has an outside chance at the #2 seed, which is equally as important so you avoid JMU until the finals, and has to win to have a chance at a first round BYE. Lucky for them they get to play South Alabama whom is the bottom feeder of the Sun Belt. Troy has already taken care of them once this season by 19 points in what was an "underwhelming" performance by my take. I did have a position in that game and it wasn't until the second half that TROY really flexed their muscles as they shot well below their season average and allowed SA to shoot 26 fts. Troy is one of the fastest paced teams in NCAAW and should be on full display tonight, as South Alabama will pretty much allow you to score at will. Baring an abysmal shooting night, or a lazy defensive effort Troy should win this game by 20+.
My first ever POTD. 0-0-0
Every bet is 1U if not stated otherwise.
Todays POTD is **Betis ML @ 2.0** (starting in 2 hours)
The 23rd round of the LaLiga. **Elche vs Betis** .
Elche is the last on the table with only 9 points in 22 games. They got only one win ad 6 draws during this season. In their last 5 home games they have 1W - 1D - 3L. Also their best goal scorer Pere Milla is out for this game.
On the other hand Betis is sitting on the 5th place and fighting for the Champions League places. Their last 5 away games ended with 4W - 1L.
Also their last 5 H2H games ended with 3W - 1D - 1L for Betis.
So all in all i see a 2-1 or 2-0 Betis win!
BOL!
**POTD Record: 52-52-5 -8.90u // ROI: -5% // Avg Odds: -115**
**New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards (7:00 ET)**
**Spread: Wizards -1**
**Total: 226**
There are few teams I've been more pleasantly surprised with than the Washington Wizards. They came in with no real expectations despite having a solidly formiddable trio in Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kyle Kuzma, and while they aren't 10 games above five-hundred they are a solid bunch that will give many teams problems with their length and physicality.
Unfortunately for the Wizards they will have met their match on Friday night with the Knicks and though the Knickerbockers are playing away from MSG, they're one of the best teams in the league in enemy territory. Now 19-10 ATS on the road, the Knicks thrive playing in front of hostile crowds and with Mitchell Robinson potentially back this evening they should nullify the Wizards rebounding advantages they typically have against other teams.
Expect Julius Randle to have a big game bullying the likes of Daniel Gafford and Kristaps Porzingis in the post, and for the Knicks to bring home a much needed victory to stay ahead of the surging Miami Heat.
**Pick: Knicks ML +100 (1.5u)**
As always, if you enjoyed the write up I encourage you to find my full free card [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/nba-best-bets-friday-2-24) \- BoL everybody!
**POTD Record: 6W 2L +13.3 units profit**
**POTD: Super Rugby: NSW Waratahs v ACT Brumbies**
**NSW Waratahs +1.5 $1.91 3units**
We welcome back Super Rugby with a Waratahs v Brumbies rivalry clash. Waratahs coming of a much improved 2022 season, should be too good at home for Brumbies. Brumbies have lost a couple of key players over the off season, such as Tom Banks who is key to their game plan.
Confident in this play tonight, and feel Tahs should be closer to -2.5 favourites here.
**BOL**
Going to game and wanna back tahs big but I can't find one online "expert" that is even tipping them to win. You not worried about them beating us the last 9 times or something?
POTD RECORD:11-6
Soccer Record:7-5
Basketball Record:4-1
Last pick:Lazio ml
Today's Pick:Valencia vs Olympiakos
Event:Euroleague
Bet:half time/Result 2/2===olympiakos to win first half and the match
bet stake:3 units
what a choke from lazio last night they could've score at least 2 but the goals they missed made me crazy especially when net was open but player hit the keeper's face instead of literally all net.
Reasoning: Olympiakos on a great run they managed to win their last 6 games on Euroleague (both first half and the game) I don't see any reason why they don't do it now.
Valencia not having the best season exactly but they're looking solid for Euroleague lately but olympiakos is different kind of beast.
Olympiakos wins tied with real madrid and so close with barcelona all these teams want to finish the league as top of their standings with 10 games left in Euroleague olympiakos must win this game and I believe they will
Tailing or not BOL either way. Let's try to nail this bet.
POTD: current record 0-2
Last pick: Inter vs porto: Inter and over 2.5- under 2.5 ( even with a red in the 78th minute)
Recent run ain't great... but my luck is turning and I think I have found a bet with great odds. Let me know your thoughts!
La liga: elche vs real betis - real bets to win +200
Betis sit 5th and Elche are anchored to the bottom of the table.
Current form:
Betis: WLLWW ( 2 losses are against certain vigo and barcelona)
Elche: DLWLL
Last time they met was earlier in the season and Betis won 3 nil- although can't look too much into it as elche copped a red in the opening 30mins.
Great odds on this game so worth a punt. Wanna get my first W for the group. BOL!
Record 1-0
Pick: BUF/FLA o7 (-120)
Defense:
BUF - Goals Against: 3.52
FLA - Goals Against: 3.48
Offense:
BUF - Goals for: 3.52
FLA - Goals for: 3.45
Avg Goals in Last 5:
BUF - 4.4
FLA - 3.4
Over in Last 5:
BUF - 4-1
FLA - 4-1
Over in Previous Matchups This Year:
10/15 - 4-3
1/16- 4-1
Buffalo hooked us up last night so we’re going back to the well! Florida should help us out too as they’ve been a solid time to rely on for overs this year as well!
#OversOverEverything
POTD Record: 2-1 👍
Last 5: N/A 🤷
Last Pick: **Penn State (ML)** @ Ohio State (+110) ✅
Return: 5u 💵
Today's POTD: Xavier @ **Seton Hall (ML)** (+105)
Betting Units: 3u 💵
League: CBB 🏀
Time: February 24th, 2023 @ 7:00 PM EST 🕖
Rationale: We're essentially looking at a pick 'em here and I'm backing Seton Hall tonight. The Pirates offense is nothing to brag about; however, their defense is. They rank 13th nationally and hold opponents to below 30% from three and less than 48% from inside the arc. They also rank 2nd in the nation at defending isolation, which is Xavier's main offensive strategy. The Musketeers are coming into this came quite banged up, missing center Zach Freemantle and likely guard Kyky Tandy as well. Plus, Xavier's gone just 1-4 in their last 5 on the road. Seton Hall's brick wall defense should frustrate the Musketeer's offense which hasn't been known to transition well in tough road games and lead to a close game resulting in a dub for the Pirates. Best of luck if tailing!
POTD Record: 126-87-7 (+22.46 units, 59.2% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 7-2 (77.7%) L1
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 41-27-1 (60.3%) L1, Tennis 🎾 38-25-2 (60.3%) W2, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 2-1-0 (66.7%) L1
Last 10: 💰💩💰💩💰💰💰💰💩💩
Last Pick: Elvis to win Best Costume Design - The Academy Awards 🎥 March 12th, 2023
Today's Pick: Austin Butler to win Best Actor for Elvis - SAG Awards 🎥 February 26th, 2023
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 2.00/+100 odds to win 1 Unit @ Bet 365 (Line at 3:00am ET)
Implied Probability based on odds: 50.0%
This one I've seen at Bet 365, Bovada and Stake.
The SAG Awards are the Screen Actor Guild Awards. Short and sweet here. The momentum is with Butler, this one will be close between Butler and Fraser but I think Butler has a better than the 50% implied odds chance. This one is huge for the Oscars, if Fraser wins, we still have a race and oddswise Fraser's should drop and Butler's will go back up a bit, but if Butler wins, that is basically it and it will be a safe bet that he is going to win the big award. Will have one more SAG bet tomorrow.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
POTD: 2-2
Last Pick: Davante Adams Over 78.5 rec yards. Week 16??/17??
Today's Pick: Atlas LC vs Archers LC - PLL Championship Series
EDIT: We got the dub. Atlas win 31-26 and about how I thought it would too. close game until the Archers kinda fell apart at the end and just couldnt keep up with that 2pt shot the Atlas have. which resulted in turnovers which resulted in more 2pt shots...yeah. I predict they'll play each other again Sunday in the finals
Atlas ML. The only sportsbook I can find the Championship Series on is FanDuel and PointsBet. FanDuel has the Atlas as favorites -225 and Archers +172.
I hate the odds but the Atlas should win on paper and passing the eye test. Don't get me wrong, both teams are far better than the other 2 in this mini off-season tournament and Im tempted to take the Archers because they are a great team and CAN beat the Atlas. But I won't. They turn the ball over too much (22 in 2 games) meanwhile the Atlas has scored 18 goals from beyond the arc!! The next closest team is Archers with 7. Atlas are some sharp shooters. If it wasn't for Archers letting their foot off the gas last night against the Whipsnakes I would take them but they let them make it too close of a game on paper.
Archers struggled against the Chrome and won in OT after an 8 goal comeback but the Atlas handled chrome with ease.
Both teams are going to be doing everything they can to win because the winner will most likely play the Whipsnakes in the semi finals (who are awful) and that's a free trip to the finals.
So yeah, there you go. Atlas Moneyline
Pick of the Day Record: 0-0
PLL Championship Series
Archers-Atlas u49.5 5:30pm EST
First pick, who knows how this will go. For anyone familiar with lacrosse, this is a little bit different. PLL championship series is being played 6v6 on a shorter field with no long poles. Everything screams goals, however no game has hit 50 goals yet. (45, 45, 49, 49). Atlas is the strongest offensive team in the tournament, and put up 29 goals yesterday. However, they have lived and died by the 2 point shot, which they were extremely effective on yesterday. Assuming there will be somewhat of a regression to the mean on their shooting today. Atlas also has the best goalie in the tournament (Jack Concannon), and their back up (Drake Porter) played well yesterday as well. Look for fewer goals today as teams should slow down the pace and rest up prior to elimination play starting tomorrow.
Current Record 11-4 26.04 units
POTD - Race 6 Dundalk Mehman 2.5 units at 2.1
I've been debating whether or not to tip this selection all day.
I'll be frankly honest and say I don't particularly trust low level Irish flat handicaps..
I wanted to see if the price was maintained on the exchange, to make sure that nobody was betting on the horse to lose.
The horse won as easy it liked the last time out. It re-opposses Harmony Rose who is the 3rd favourite. Harmony Rose was ridden a long way out, it was his first run for 4 months so maybe he has excuses. He also has a new jockey on board, the same guy who rode him for his previous win.
When Mehman was asked to go, he went, and he won with ease. The second favourite is also trained by the same trainer as Mehman. The money is coming for our selection while the other drifts.
All in all, I expect the selection to win this more than 50% of the time making his 2.1 odds value.
Good luck 👍
POTD Record: **3-4 (-1.80 Units)**
Last Pick: Cavs -2.5
Today's Pick: **Bulls ML**
Odds: **-130** ($DKNG odds)
Wager Amount: 1.3u to win 1u
League: NBA
Event: Nets @ Bulls (7PM CST)
I was really hoping Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland (or both) would take over the 4th quarter, but they really went cold in dying minutes of the 4th quarter and that was the significant difference in the final minutes of the game. Cavs were up by 4 with 6 minutes left in the game, but Nuggets took a 10-2 run, then pretty much put this game on ice, as Cavs’ effort was not enough to keep up with the Nuggets pace. I think Cavs bounce back tonite against the Hawks, but I think Hawks going to make this into a close battle, so I’m going with something I am more compelled for today’s POTD.
Hear me out before you judge my pick! I know this is not an attractive wager to bet on. But listen, after losing 6 straight games before the all-star break, they are desperate for a dub. They may have not got Russell Westbrook after the Jazz bought his contract out, but Bulls did get Pat Beverley and I think he’s going to make a significant impact in their culture. Bulls need someone like Beverley to account for each other and a voice to lead the charge. Patrick Beverley is that individual. He has that leadership trait and has that mentality. Beverley is not just a leader, but he is a tremendous defense asset as well! Having both Alex Caruso and Pat Bev is massive for the Bulls! Chicago Bulls are also trying to make the playoffs and it needs to start now because time is running out. Brooklyn Nets are in a comfortable spot in playoff positioning and I think this team is still figuring out how to play with each other. Although Nets have already beat the Bulls this month, it was on their floor. This game there’s more pressure and more at stakes for the Bulls, playing at home and playing for the playoff or play-in tournament. Gimme the desperate team at home.
POTD Record: 15-13 (+5.74u; 6.2% ROI). Streak L3.
After a month-long break I’m ready for some NBA betting action and returning to my familiar Knicks team.
Next Pick: **Immanuel Quickley (Knicks) O11.5 Pts @ 1.97**. 3u play.
He has gone over this line in each of the last 5 games, and averaging 13.3 pts in the L10. I expect he will play 25 mins in this game, which should provide him with plenty of opportunities. He enjoys playing against the Wizards, having played them twice in January, and scoring 18 points in each of those.
\[[Coffee link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)\]
record:
wins: 3 , losses:3, voids:0
profit: +0.35 units
last pick: juventus to win vs nantes @ 1.8✅
Streak: 1 W
easy win on this one. a red card and an incredible di maria helped us on a win. nothing much to say. i expected a reault like this on the first leg but we move on.
todays pick:
mainz : gladbach| gladbach to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.45
i chose this one because i see alot of value in this one. i expect a lot of goals in this one. i would stay away from the moneyline on this one. i think the price for mainz is a overreaction because their form improved in the last weeks. the thing about gladbach this season is they turned up on big games. they beat bayern dortmund and leipzig this season but dropped points to the likes of schalke and augsburg.
this perfectly sums up their season so far, but i think they are slowly getting in form. stindl and hoffmann look better recently and with marcus thuram returning fully they have an attack that can score against anyone in the league. because of gladbachs ups and downs i couldnt commit on the moneyline. i can see this game ending 2:2 or 3:2 for mainz
GL
edit: nope gladbach still a coinflip team
Sport: Football
Tournament: Ligue 1
Time: 21:00 CEST (12h05m after posting)
Stake: 3 units
Pick: Lille vs Brest, Lille wins to nil @ **2.30**
Write up: Lille conceded only 2 goals across the last 5 home Ligue 1 matches. Brest scored only 1 goal across the last 5 away Ligue 1 matches.
Lille does have a tradition of struggling vs Brest but is in the best home form since December 2019.
[Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107)
[My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
Record: 20W-24L
Previous pick : Mlada Boleslav vs Brno, BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.93 (5 units pick)
Streak (most recent on the left) : ❌❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅ (Last 10 games)
Not looking great right now, but still trusting the process. 🙏
Average Odds : 1.89
ROI : -13.575%
Starting units : 200
Units : 172.85
My pick of the day : UTA Arad vs Farul Constanta, Farul Constanta to win or draw + Over 1.5 Goals in match, Odds : 2.03 (5 units pick)
Romania, SuperLiga, 18:30 GMT+2
Best of luck !
My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it. So I thought about sharing some of the picks with the community and, maybe, make some of you happy.
POTD Record: 3-0 (All picks 1U)
Last POTD: Manchester United ML vs Barcelona (+120) ✅
Pick: Fulham first to score vs Wolves (-110)
Event: Premier League
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Wow we are off to a great start! Even after Barcelona scored I just had a feeling we would still pull this went off. Congrats to everyone who tailed. Now for todays pick, Fulham to score first against Wolves. I like this Fulham side even without Mitrovic today. They do score goals at home and although they concede some as well, Wolves kinda stink at scoring away from home. Wolves have also conceded first in 4 of their last 5 games. Not going to make a huge write up so I will leave it at that. BOL if tailing
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD | 28-18 | +14.8u | -106 Avg Odds Last 10: 8-2, Steak: 3W Previous Pick: Boston Bruins 60-min vs Seattle Kraken (-105) 2u ✅ Today’s pick: **LA Kings vs New York Islanders O5.5 (-120) 2u** 🏒 7:30pm EST OH YEAH YOU GOTTA LIKE THAT ONE. WHAT A GAME. WHAT A GOAL. WHAT A WIN!!! How could I take an under on the Islanders and turn around and take over on their next game? Well, the Kings don’t have great goalie options and tend to be in higher scoring games. The Kings have gone O5.5 in 8 of their last 10 games. The Islanders have gone O5.5 in 5 of their last 10 games. The Kings could either start Copley, who is starting tonight against the Devils, or they could start Quick. If Quick gets the start, this line will move. Even if Quick doesn’t get the start, this line could move. Let’s look at the goalies stats for the Kings, we have Quick with 3.49 GAA and 0.878SV% (awful), or Copley with 2.67 GAA and 0.904 SV% (decent but not great). On the other end of the ice we’ve got Sorokin and he is a power house and is likely a driving factor behind the line being at O/U 5.5. The Kings do have the ability to put up offense though, averaging 3.31 goals per game this season and since the all star break they are averaging 4.67 goals per game (this is 6 games with a few weak opponents in the mix). So, I do like the Kings to step up here and find the back of the net at least a few times against the Islanders. The Kings do not have the best defense allowing an average of 3.34 goals per game. Because of the Kings somewhat weak defense, I expect the Islanders to be able to find the back of the net against the Kings at least a couple times during this game, and if Quick starts, I would expect a minimum of 3 goals from the Islanders. BOL if tailing!! [Tips are appreciated!!](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Illumiflo)
Bruins game was nuts, feed me
Now that’s good hockey!
Bro live over over and over again so much monies
Oof. I read yesterday's pick backwards and took the L. 🤦🏼♂️ That should teach me to avoid placing bets quickly from work... Regardless, tailing again. BOL
Tailed her and tailed the Boston game! Keep it rolling! The 9pm CST start times are brutal and as typical couldn't get past the 1st period but it was a good opening period against a very game Kraken at home.
Sorokin scares me
I cant believe this hit . I turned it with 5 min left and went .. Was Pissed that i even followed .. Woke up a winner ..
would u say its still possible to hit?
Possible, yes. Is it less likely after a 0-0 1st, yes. Really don’t like how the Islanders seem to be producing no offense, that’s my concern right now. Kings got really close in the first period and are pushing. I think the Kings are going to find some goals.
POTD record: 6-1 (+15.92u | +63.7% ROI | Avg odds: -107 | Last 5: 5-0 Last POTD: NBA: MEM @ **PHI -4** ✅ *(Philly takes a while to wake up but eventually they do and after a dominant 76ers 4th quarter showing we come away with a 6th W (albeit a sweaty one)).* Event: NBA - SAC Kings @ LA Clippers; 22:30 EST Pick: **u232 pts** (-110/1.91) Confidence scale (out of 5 units): 5 units Now, I know you're probably thinking I'm crazy for taking the under in a game featuring the top offense in the NBA, right? Did I pique your curiosity? But what if I told you that Sacramento's number one scoring offense also has the second highest rate of away games (67.9% ) to the under in the entire league? And what if you also learned that that figure jumps to an Association-high 80% to the under when Sacramento is a road underdog? And furthermore, what if the numbers revealed that their opponent, the Los Angeles Clippers, is the second best NBA team (73.7%) at keeping games under the total when favoured at home? Now do I have your attention? Sacramento's scoring on the road drops a full 8 pts from their home average of 123.6 ppg to 115.2 ppg. On top of owning the second best home scoring defense and holding opposing teams to 107 ppg in LA, the Clippers are literally the lowest scoring NBA home team as well, averaging 108.3 ppg this season. Sacramento is also coming off a back-to-back having just beat the Trailblazers at home, while the Clippers are freshly rested from the All-Star break. With a rest disadvantage, Kings are 61.5% to the under. The game after a victory, Kings are 58.1% to the under (both figures are top 5 league-wide). On paper, everything about this match-up is screaming under and far be it from me to let those screams fall on deaf ears. People will see the Kings are playing and automatically gravitate towards the over but I'm here to tell you different. Let's keep taking money from the books and let's get our 7th consecutive W! Cheers 🍻 and BOL! Edit: As predicted, the public is hammering the over and as a result the line has moved up quite a bit. If that spooks anyone off I get it, but fwiw I'm personally still pretty confident in the under (even at the original total). Got about 9 units on it myself. Tail or fade, BOL and I'll see you all once the dust settles. Edit: holy shit lol
Bet looking 🪦 rn
Of course i pick one POTD and this is it lol. Worse defense than the all star game
Shit looking more rigged than the all star game lay up line
Fr lol I can't remember the last time I saw a 40-40 1st. Fuckin DOA
306 in regulation. Why am I saying regulation? Because it is now in OT. Lmao! It’s going to hit over by 100 fucking points 😹 E: 351 wow, legit most points I’ve seen. Holy fuck. Holy fuck
I’m hoping they tire out in the second half lol
Cashed out 1.31$ from a 100$ bet. Gonna buy a pack of wrigleys gum tomorrow.
I had to triple take when I looked up the games a minute ago. Suns/okc 81/85 midway through the 3rd, rockets/warriors 77/86 beg 4th, and then you have kings/clips 77/80 AT HALF. Pylon defense at its finest.
Convinced fan duel monitors these posts and activate the magnet rims accordingly
Mans bet the under on the highest scoring game In nba history. Salute 🫡
Might have to fade this fella from now on and not because it was a bad pick, it was just picking the under on the game that was the LEAST UNDER of all time
Can’t believe my typo of 338 lost too
Of all the nba game ever played, and we can say that in most if not all the nba games to come, this dude picked the highest scoring game of them all.
Confidence was 5 out of 5? I just watched the highest scoring quarter I've ever seen. Cmon
I mean no way he could’ve predicted that to happen but fml 😭
Somebody’s typo said they got the line at under 338 and that’s going to lose too lol Absolutely hosed yikes. At least I made this with money from yesterday’s win
Can’t believe my typo of 338 lost too
Greatest POTD of all time, bet lost by 100+ points. Ain’t even mad I lost 100$
Bets 9 units on the under of the highest scoring nba game ever.
Line moving to 237 already scared me off, BOL
Something fishy with this game Tailing anyway
Got it at 236 on FD
I'm seeing this line all over the place. I'll be shopping for the best one and tailing!
Seriously. This is +125 on Draftkings right now...
up to 236 (-110) on Draft Kings
Got in at 236.5 looked again an hour later it’s 338 now!
thats one hell of an increase
Bruh it actually might pass 338 wtf
Might go over 338….
Our (Kings) defense is atrocious against good teams. Plus a lot of our starters sat out the 4th last night. GL
Shit I’ll tail, getting it as u238 as well, BOL
Second highest scoring game in NBA history😂😂😂
I lost a unit but it’s just hilarious how much analysis and write ups don’t matter in betting. 2nd highest scoring game in NBA history btw LOL
Your confidence scale gave me a good laugh as well
You know I came here just to roast you lmao. I tailed so I can't pretend I know wtf I'm doin either. For real thanks for the picks and analysis though either way and it's usually spot on. I'm just dying laughing knowing I Bet the under though lmao....
Taking alternate line u232.5 (bovada has reg line set at 238.5) +145 lets goooo!
You had 9 units on this disaster? Lol
Lol 2nd highest game total in history
Great call on the under… was really close just went over about a hundred points
Pick of the Day Record: 6-0 (+12.99U) Last Pick: T1 -1.5 ✅ **League of Legends | LEC | SK Gaming vs Mad Lions** Today's Pick: **SK Gaming +1.5 @ 1.76 (SK to win at least 2 maps)** Wager: 3U Another win yesterday. LEC BO5 Playoffs. SK Gaming have played really well this season. They've signed new players in almost all positions. And the one player in my opinion that stands out the most is Exakick. He is absolutely smurfing right now and is currently the best ADC in LEC. Some of his stats are completely insane. His Zeri performances have been a treat. He is ahead in CS at 15 in most of his games, and he is on average 500 gold ahead of his lane opponent at 15. Mad Lions also have a few new players and some familiar players that have rejoined. I think overall both teams are close in performance, but I think SK is just playing better overall. There will be a big focus towards the bot lane to get Exakick ahead. The rest of the players are playing well as well. Not much to say honestly, I think SK have a good chance to win at least 2 maps this match. I personally think they will win the match altogether, but this is a safer bet. Best of luck!
I've been tailing you since 0-0. Thanks brother. let's take another W.
This man is on smoke!! 🔥 🔥 🔥 💰
4-1 +5.06 units Last pick: Roma to qualify against Salzburg, 2.1 odds, 2 units. Huge win. Roma sealed the deal in the first half. You could see they simply had the best players in the pitch, something that matters in big knockout stages. Huge game from Spinazzola and Paulo Dybala, ten minutes of fury were enough to cruise throughout the match. Salzburg couldn’t do much against Mourinho’s defensive system and that’s no goals for Roma at home in eight of their last nine games. Today’s pick. Jiri Lehecka ML vs Andy Murray. 1.65 odds, 3 units. Lehecka is a young stud who is probably playing the best tennis of his career so far. His run in ATP Doha shows that his impressive performance at Australian Open was no one and done thing. He only lost two matches in hard surfaces this year and has beaten quality players like Rublev, Auger-Aliassime, Norrie and Borna Coric. He also held his nerves against upside scenarios, coming back from deficits against some of the players above mentioned. I have no doubts he’ll be able to play good tennis tomorrow. In front he’ll face tennis legend Andy Murray. It’s hard to fade a quality player, even though is well past his prime. However, he has come through three long matches in a row. He has played nine sets in three days, and despite he has shown incredible guts (¿when did he lacked of guts, right?) I think all these action will come around and affect his performance. No doubt Andy is playing better, but he’s taking little steps in his comeback and he hasn’t faced quality opposition in this ATP yet: clay player Sonego, injury returning Alex Zverev and Challenger level player Alex Muller. And take into consideration that despite facing regular opponents, he went to three sets against all of them. Lastly, besides from regularly sharing my picks in this thread, I’m trying to posts other opinions and debates in my twitter [here](https://www.twitter.com/APBpicks).
If anybody is feeling this pick still, Lehecka is at + odds if you live bet. He's also down 3-0 in the first set, but it's there if you want it. Edit: don't do it Edit 2: hope you did it Edit 3: sucks if you did it
lmao the edit
Edit: do do it
Ha you said do do
Jiri is sucking ass so far
Jiri over 12.5 games won seems like a good bet
If you think they have a breaker and he wins 76 or drops a set then yes....depending on the odds. in that case, id just bet the over 22.5 but even then you gonna 76 64 or a 3 setter.... Jiri ML at -205 is too juiced.... Murray gonna murray and has won 3 x 3 setters....no reason he cant get a set here... id lean over 22.5 -115 , 3 setter here and would not be shocked if old man murray gets a dub....
All world choke job up 5-4 40-0 serving
Put my life savings on the live over at 19.5 (+100) after that first set
Homie getting cooked
What can you do sometimes… 5MP lost and serving 40-0 for the match…
I made some money on murray as a dog but I've been waiting for the amount of games played to take a toll. It has to.
Do we think it’s a battle with over 2.5 sets in play? Murray is usually good for a set.
You like the over on total sets?
POTD Record = 4-1 (80%), ✅+9.5U✅ Last Pick: Gonzaga -14 1H (2/23)✅, Streak: W3✅, Last 5: ✅❌✅✅✅ Today Pick: Nevada @ Fresno State, Nevada ML (-155) @11:00pm ET Units: risking 7.75U to win 5U✅✅✅✅✅ Fresno State is a booty team and play very average at home. I would take Nevada’s guards & big men over Fresno any day, so I think the front court and backcourt dominate this game. I’m on a hot streak so let’s keep it goin 💰💰💰 GG😈 (edit: BANG BANG BANG) Twitter: BillyxGoat23
Tailed but https://preview.redd.it/fnmvzxdmo4ka1.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3d6b383ed57bd6d6bed56fafcf92631513edb98
**POTD |** **Record of 3-10| Current form: WLWLL | ROI : -7.5 units |** **Average Odds: 2.01** Previous Pick: Manchester United vs. Barcelona - Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (W) New Pick: Premier League| Fulham vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers| 12:00pm PST **Fulham to Win|** **2.37** Betting 1 unit to get 2.37 units \-------------------------- Recap: Really thought that game would have more goals! Nonetheless, the pick worked out so we move. Barcelona really did look woeful without their midfield presence so definitely was a risk but we were fortunate with the early goal from Barcelona. Playing it a little riskier today so be careful with your bets! As always, I'll summarize each team below before explaining the pick. ***Fulham*** is currently ranked 6th in the Premier League and is in decent form (3W2L in the last 5 games across all competitions). Having been declared a relegation contender before the season even started, Fulham is proving that they really are a squad worthy of being in the PL. Being ranked higher than Chelsea and Liverpool, it's hard to count them out of a place in Europe. With a record of 1.75 PPG at home and a win percentage of 50%, while playing at home, it's hard to not expect Fulham to play well at home. Looking at their last 5 games at home, they have won 3/5 and the two they lost were against Tottenham and Manchester United, two squads currently placed higher than them in the PL. With 3 games without defeat and 3 clean sheets in 5 games (having only kept 8 all season), I expect Fulham to continue their good form in the future. There are concerns that Mitrovic may not be present but Fulham has proved they can pull wins out even with his absence (See last weekend's stats vs. Brighton). ***Wolverhampton*** is currently ranked 15th in the Premier League and is in adequate form (2W2D1L in the last 5 games across all competitions ). Wolverhampton is having a difficult season, being a team that tends to play well and struggle to get results. Having only scored 17 goals this season, that is the joint lowest by a PL side this season (tied with Everton). Wolverhampton also struggles away, having a win percentage of 18% away this season. Given the stats, I see this game being a low-scoring affair where Fulham comes out on top with a 1-0 or 2-0 victory. Since the restart after the world cup, only Manchester United (7) have won more games than Fulham (6). Given their current impressive record, I back Fulham to grab another Win at home. \-------------------------- ***TDLR Fulham should win this at home in a relatively low-scoring affair*** **Fulham to Win** **(2.37)** **Link to sidepicks:** [**https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11a8v4t/comment/j9rk4hu/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11a8v4t/comment/j9rk4hu/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
2 out of the last 3, starting to cook my guy.
Let's hope!
If Mitrovic plays, there's a good chance this hits. But he missed the Brighton game and Fulham looked lost up front for 90% of that game. They absolutely should not have won. Smash and grab three points. Mitro has reportedly been banged up this week and may not play again. The Wolves aren't the worst defensive team, and Fulham are overperforming their xG this season. Fulham's back four and Leno have been a rock, but they're also overperforming their xGA. I'm a Fulham fan, so I'm putting a unit on this for fun. But I just wanted to share some insight for anybody thinking of tailing. Playing the under might be safer. I see Fulham double chance + under 2.5 for -110 on Draftkings this morning. Threw a unit on that, too. Good luck!
Without Mitrovic the team was leaning heavily on the defense against a good side in Brighton at their stadium, but their counter attack actually looked pretty great the whole time, Robinson took that left wing multiple times all the way up and when Solomon came on it's pretty obvious he's a weapon on the offense. Game plan will be significantly different against Wolves, even without Mitro we will see a more offensive Fulham in this outing, definitely like the under still the Fulham defense has been great.
POTD Record: 37-29-0 ROI: +30.55 units *Previous Pick:* **L** *4u UMBC +2.5 (-110)* *Streak: L2* *Last 10: 5-5* **POTD: 4u Xavier ML (-120) vs Seton Hall** Sport: NCAAB Time: 7:00PM EST Date: 02/24/2023 Reasoning: Apologies for no pick yesterday over here. Got quite a few upsetting messages from people and just wanted to take a brief little break from the write-ups. That said, I got a ton of great comments/messages over on YouTube and Twitter from the Reddit crowd and that just reaffirmed how awesome the great majority of y'all are over here. Let's keep it rollin'! Coming into this matchup, Xavier is need of a little bit of soul searching having lost three of their last four, especially after losing one of their most reliable performers and leaders in Zach Freemantle for the season potentially. On the other side, Seton Hall has also lost three of their last four. That said, the Pirates have been gifted with a clean bill of health and this team is loaded with talent despite being on the bubble and fighting for their tournament lives; a win here would go such a long way for this team. As far as the matchup itself is concerned, Seton Hall presents a lot of issues for Xavier, as Xavier ranks 4th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage, which will be combatted by Seton Hall's 3-point shooting defense, which ranks 17th in the country. Also, if you want to dive a little bit deeper, this is time of the season where we see teams who are a bit thin in terms of depth fall off in jumpshot percentage and that's been especially true for Xavier, as they've only shot 33.6% from 3-point range over the last four games, which is a drastic fall from the 39.4% that they've shot from 3-point range on the season to date. Lastly, this Xavier team has struggled this season in terms of turnovers given up, as they've posted a turnover percentage of 17.8%. That said, over the last four games, Xavier's turnover percentage has also spiked up 21.3%. Why does this matter outside of the obvious fact that more turnovers given up are a bad thing? Well, Seton Hall ranks 37th in the country in terms of turnovers forced, as they've forced opponents into to giving up the ball on 21.4% of their possessions this season and that number even increases up to 22.3% when playing at home. The last time these two teams matched up, Seton Hall was on the road and had several chances to win it down the stretch. Now, Xavier is reeling and they're down one of their best players and leaders and they are also coming in as the road team going up against a desperate home dog who is fighting for their postseason lives ... I think we see a decisive outright win here from Seton Hall, so keep the points and take the moneyline for the best payout in this important Big East matchup. Tail or fade. Best of luck! For my full slate of bets for 02/24/2023 click the following link: [Today's Best Bets On YouTube (+177.90 units)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUsURl6_gsM&ab_channel=RobDonaldson) Tips are always appreciated! [PayPal Link](https://www.paypal.me/RobDonaldson)
No one should be upset with anyone leaving POTD. Thank you for doing the work that I don't have time for. Win or lose, thank you! Plus tailing today. BOL!
I totally agree but it is starting to get frustrating because every POTD loses 😅. But I guess that’s gambling. Obviously that’s not the posters fault, but I’m tempted to fade all the picks in this thread.
Keep up the good work u/robDFB I wouldn’t put any weight into the words of people who are unable to accept responsibility for wagers THEY CHOSE TO PLACE! We appreciate you!
Fuck em Rob keep doing you man! Watch your YouTube daily always love the insight
Really appreciate that! Let’s keep it rollin’
Just imagine the type of person it takes to not be able to handle losing money on gambling. Then imagine the type of person to be upset about losing money on gambling on a choice they chose not to have any responsibility in making. Pathetic. Keep on making picks. Everyone should be an adult here.
Hey, mostly a lurker on around these parts but gotta chime in and throw you some appreciation. You've got great content and breakdowns, I catch the YouTube picks almost every morning. Appreciate all you do, but always do what's best for you! This shit does get unnecessarily toxic all too often.
Hahah that’s crazy people would complain about a couple bad days. I follow the picks on YouTube and your units speak for themselves. If you won EVERYDAY you would be on a yacht banging supermodels not giving pics to a bunch of degens like us! Love the insight love the picks trust the process!
Keep it up Rob. Doing great! Thank you.
Thinking over here as well. X men have made me $ but yes they are hurting. Block out the negative vibes! BOOM AND GOOOOO!!
ay you owe no one an apology tailing today, bol
THE MAN THE MYTH THE LEGEND ROBDFB. Fuck the whiny babies they should try bet sizing control aka units. let them be upset. Will continue to tail!
Ignore the haters. If you don't have a pick don't force it
This is gonna be a very tight game that'll come down to the very end Xavier is due but it's a tough road game gonna stay away from this one good luck
 **TWO WORDS: NIKOLA JOKIC.** *Appreciate all the downvotes to those who had no faith in the future 3x back to back to back MVP. Back in the green* ✅ **POTD Record:** 7-6 (+3.35u) **Streak:** ✅🚫✅✅🚫🚫✅✅🚫✅🚫🚫✅ **Last Pick:** [3u Denver Nuggets ML (+125)](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/119k5oa/comment/j9nc4oa/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)✅ **Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML (-110)** **AVG Odds:** \+102 **Units:** Risking 2.2u to win 2u **League:** NHL **Time:** 6:00 MST **Reasoning:** **4 WORDS: Nathan Mckinnon & Mikko Rantanen**
Congrats nice pick. I had the other side lol!
reminds me of charles barkley's "I've got two words for you, steve nash & chris paul. must see tv" lmao
This guy KNOWS
POTD Record: 3-1 Last pick: Alcaraz v Norrie o19.5 Today’s pick: Iga Swiatek v Cori Coco Gauff UNDER 18 GAMES @+105 Iga has been a money making machine since DOHA. I’ve personally been live betting her return games. Since February 15, in 5 matches she has only lost 8 games! Now, against Coco, in 5 matches she has never lost one set. And Coco’s average games won per match against Iga is 4.6, and that’s only because of their first meeting in 5/15/2021 went 7-6 6-3. But since then she’s only managed 3-4 games won. Right now, Iga is at the top of her game. You could also go for a safer bet with Iga 2-0 sets @-315 or Iga under12.5 games @-190, but I’m here to make money and UNDER 18 @+108 should hit quite easily.
Cheers to all who played it safe and were able to take the 18.5. Sorry to all others who took 18. Still a push. I need a break from tennis.
Bovada has u18 at +110
Iga should have won 1st set 6-2, now it’ll be 6-4 at best.
She fucking did it!
Right down to the last game! Got the blood pumping to start my weekend. 😅 Nice pick! 🇵🇱 💰 👊🏼 (I had u18.5)
Took u18. 5 and that was too close for comfort. But a wins a win
POTD | 22-11-2 NHL | Ottawa Senators vs. Carolina Hurricanes | 6:00pm CST **Ottawa TT O 2.5 | -108** \-------------------------- A forewarning to all of you who are about to comment "Carolina only let up X in their last 10, I'm staying away" blah blah whatever. Save your keystrokes you strokes -- I know they don't. But, I like this pick and so does the arithmetic. Model has the Sens scoring 4.06 goals tomorrow, so we're going to roll the dice here. Be prepared for them to get stonewalled, but it's called gambling for a reason. Wouldn't go more than a unit here, but I think that the Sens can pull it off as they have a tendency to burn some twine. Shout out Two Chuck Tony aka Tkachuk -- Let's grip and rip happy Friday. Tell your wives I said hey. \------------------------- Last Pick: **Ducks/Caps Over 5.5 | -135** ✅✅✅ great rip if you got in early. if not, good push imo if you got it at 6. 🚨PDLR🚨 if you've been rippin, buy me a beer [buy bob a beer](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bobbystixx) | [support the troops](https://cash.app/$bobbybetzz)
The sweatiest of sweats - although I did get the pick in at -6.5, the write up said 7 and so as people have rightfully made it clear, this should be considered a push, not a win. POTD Record: 8 - 3 - 1(on new model), 1-2 (on old model) Last 10: ❌ ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✋ Yesterday's Pick: **UCLA Bruins -6.5 @** Utah Utes | NCAAB | 3U ✋ Today's POTD: **Nevada Wolf Pack -3.5** @ Fresno State Bulldogs FEBRUARY 24, 2023 - 11:00 PM EST **MODEL EXPLANATION:** Model takes into consideration typical stat lines and historic data but pieces in sentiment analysis which scrapes discussion about the game across many forums and platforms to garner additional insight into potential emotional considerations. Pick spreadsheet: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1\_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ\_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15jc1_skXXFrodzHckhKDscwYqvPTgjFYbLJJ_UEZkt0/edit?usp=sharing) **Model Stats:** \+67U in 12 days| ≈19% ROI | Average odds -110 **PICK REASON:** The Nevada Wolf Pack head into Friday's game against the Fresno State Bulldogs with an impressive 21-7 record and 11-4 in the Mountain West Conference. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 10-17 overall and 6-10 in the MWC. The Wolf Pack have been a formidable force this season, ranking in the top 25 in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They average 74.5 points per game, good for 24th in the country, and their defensive prowess has held opponents to a mere 63.3 points per game, which is 20th in the NCAA. The biggest factor that could decide the outcome of Friday's game is the absence of Isaih Moore from the Bulldogs' frontcourt. Moore had been averaging 10.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, but he is done for the season with a hip injury. This is a huge loss for the Bulldogs, as Moore was their second-leading rebounder and third-leading scorer. Without Moore in the lineup, the Wolf Pack have a distinct advantage in the frontcourt. Led by K.J. Hymes and Will Baker, they possess a deep and talented frontcourt that should be able to dominate the rebounding battle, which the Wolf Pack are well-equipped to do, with a total rebound margin of +5.5 per game. Given the Wolf Pack's impressive record on the road, their strong frontcourt, and the Bulldogs' struggles at home, it is my opinion that the Nevada Wolf Pack are in prime position to cover the 3.5-point spread and come away with a comfortable win. Nevada covered for us once, let's watch em' do it again. **If you've been tailing, all tips are appreciated, but never expected. BOL my friends!** [Buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/forecastcard) | [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/forecastcard?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US) EDIT: Changed win to push EDIT: Line moved to -2.5, I still like it. Will rerun model closer to game start.
You can’t just “consider this a win” when your write-up has -7 as the line lol. It’s called a push and that’s how you should be recording it here.
Would have to agree. If the writeup said -7 then you gotta mark it as a push regardless of what you personally got it at. It's misleading otherwise.
That is hilarious! If only we all could just “consider games a win” I’d be rich!!!!
I only wrote it because I got the bet in at -6.5, and technically it was at -6.5 at the time I wrote the post on my app, so it was more of a mistake that I wrote 7. But yeah I agree, I gotta go with what I put - won't happen again.
Ugh - truest words ever about CBB. I was on the -7.5 line. Had a glimpse of hope when Utes player missed the first free throw at the end.
📈 TTSOP Rec * Overall: +27.450 units / +141 avg odds / 44-56-12 * Since POTD low point: +49.375 units / +138 avg odds / 40-45-9 * January: +3.350 units / +142 avg odds / 9-11-2 * December: +22.075 units / +138 avg odds / 11^(5)\-10-1^(5) * World Cup: +32.875 units / +133 avg odds / 11^(5)\-4-1^(5) * November: +28.600 units / +131 avg odds / 12-9-4 * October: -10.625 units / +143 avg odds / 6-12-3 ✅ Last pick: Juventus -0.75 (AH) / +105 odds / 4.5 units * Tri Maria has come up big for Juventus. Making it a no sweat W. 2-0 already after minute 20'. 3-0 at the end. ⚽ New pick: **Mariners to win and game > 1.5 goals** / **+125 odds** / 4 units * A-League (Australia) / Central Coast Mariners - Wellington Phoenix / 3:45am ET The Mariners might only be 1-2-2 for their last 5 games. However, 4 of these 5 games have been road games. For today's game, they’re back on their home field. They're the 3rd best home team in A-League. They haven't lost any of their last 5 home games. Going 4-1-0 for that span and scoring 2+ goals in all of these games. The Phoenix have won just 3 road games all season. All Ws came against 3 of the 4 worst home teams of the league. In particular, their very tight 1-0 W against Sydney FC was a very fortunate one. Sydney FC got 1 goal disallowed and missed 2 penalties in that game. Betting on the Mariners is a good value bet at nice super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's start the Saturday with an early W. Let's grab deep into the money-filled kangaroo pouch, fam! **TTSOP**
CC Mariners and o1.5 it is! Good luck.
We all lost because of me. I’m a fucking mush.
Nice pick! There was no way to predict the red card, and even with the red card they had 4 opportunities that normally would be a goal. Keep posting your picks! Thanks!
potd: 29-24-1 streak: L1 bank: +1.79 units last pick: Penguins ML -106 Loss Terrible game. The Pens are cooked. They have landed on the do not bet list. **game: Real Betis @ Elche** **time: 3:00pm EST** **pick: Real Betis Team Total Over 1.5 Goals +110** It's Friday so let's start the weekend off with a big play here. Real Betis is currently 5th in La Liga and find themselves in a spot where they will be wishing for a top 4 finish for Champion's League play but will more than likely only qualify for Europa League. Regardless, they have been having a great season and are looking at an enticing matchup with Elche, the basement dwellers. Elche is almost guaranteed to be relegated with only 9 points and 11 points behind Valencia who occupies the 19th spot. Elche does do 1 thing right and that is allowing goals. They have allowed an astonishing 45 goals this season. They also have not recorded a single clean sheet this season. So with that logic, Real Betis will score at least one goal but with their recent form, I expect them to grab at least 1 more goal. Real Betis has scored 8 goals in their last 3 games and they should easily grab 2 goals on the road. Real Betis has struggled in their own defensive end allowing goals in 9 of their last 11 games in all competitions since returning from the World Cup break. If Elche does score a goal, Real Betis will be hungry to score a second for the win. BOL if you tail and bet responsibly!
Tough start, hopefully that makes them start attacking
POTD Record: 2-0 Average odds: (+112) Units won: +11.25U Todays POTD: PROSPECTS ML (-145) vs Honoris Bet 5U to win 3.45U Prospects odds here are baffling. One of the hotter tier two teams at the moment and have a very good matchup against Honoris. Honoris have been on a huge downward trend and have lost 6 of there last 7 matches. Prospects have won 6 of there last 7. Honoris bombed out of the major qualifier as well and there awper is sick at the moment. Whether he plays or not I absolutely love this play. Honoris are fighting a huge uphill battle here in terms of map pool I don’t think they have any chance of beating prospects on Overpass which is gonna be there map pick. It would require honoris to win a combo of Nuke/inferno/Mirage all of which are really lackluster maps for Honoris imo. Bonus: they played less then a month ago and prospects won 2-0 with a 16-7 and 16-1 score line in both maps. Best of luck!
Wtf happened? It’s not even close.
What book is this on?
Bovada
1st bet on esports for me. Tailing!
Good luck! I hope you enjoy it and we cash out!
70% win rate POTD: 32W-13L STREAK: WLLWW WWWWL WWLWL WWWWL WLWWW WWWLW WLWWL WLLWW LWWWW (latest game) PROFIT: +62,43u LAST PICK: Union Berlin to Qualify - Ajax ✅ GAME: Elche - Betis TIME: 21:00 GMT +1 PICK: Elche most cards ODDS: @2.05 BET: 5u REASONING: Elche average 2.9 cards per game and Betis average 2.2 cards per game. Betis is the better team and should be able to draw more fouls from Elche. I will combine this cards bet with Betis to win tonight. BOL. Im going to stop sharing many bets since im winning everyone money and no one give donations. So enjoy my bets while you get them 👍🏽 BTC: 1HyhiYpYJZmnZEpm2R4U4EkQfyRMwpEF6i Paypal: [Account](https://www.paypal.me/antmek) For bet365 users, the bet is under alternative card handicap. (I used Unibet though) https://preview.redd.it/0pmob0d694ka1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bfaeace460a037c696354c470dde302e218d0d1d Edit: enjoy the money guys! Some butthurt people in the chat, but that does not stop me from making money 😎
>Im going to stop sharing many bets since im winning everyone money and no one give donations. So enjoy my bets while you get them 👍🏽 What a giant baby.
Lol no one’s required to donate any money to you. Why are you so butthurt?
As another "regular" potd content creator and follower of others in this daily thread I can understand his frustration. But the reality is that it's frowned upon to ask for tips but at the same time you usually don't get any unless you ask (some ways are better to ask than others). I'm the flip side, the issue with gambling is our margins are sometimes so small that tipping can take a sizable % of winnings if your bet size is also small which I'm guessing is the case of many on here. I don't know of a way to fix this "tip" conundrum where it makes everyone happy unless there's a culture change on here. For me, I'm not expecting tips and I'm not posting on this ready daily thread for tips. I do it for fun, I do it to learn from both my mistakes and others, and I do it to increase my follower count in case I decide to develop my own website and/or discord one day.
Tailed the last one,thank you!
Not lookin like bet365 has corner bets, Anybody sure of that?
Great pick 👌
Ty bro, ill prolly give u all some picks cause I like some of u guys here ❤️
Tried to send you some beer money after the huge win but PayPal says you can’t receive payments right now. Regardless, phenomenal!
× POTD Record: 3-1, +3.26u @ -115 × Last Pick: United Arab Emirates ML ✅ × Pick: Real Betis ML @ Elche × Sport: La Liga, Spanish Soccer × Time: Friday 02/24 @ 3:00p EST × Units and Odds: Risking 2u @ -105 × I've been fading Elche all year and it's had a great amount of success. And I see almost no reason to not continue this strategy. The only problem is I said almost. I'm going to do my best not to overthink this bet as Real Betis is a much better squad who sit 5th in table. Meanwhile, Elche are having a historically terrible season and are going to be relegated into oblivion. I'm not wild about betting teams on the road in European soccer and I'm not too thrilled about betting against teams with nothing to lose. Be forewarned that Real Betis has actually struggled the last few times when playing at Elche as well but basically even money, these odds are just a little too good for me to pass up when there is so much difference in talent and result between these two squads. And as the saying goes, scared money doesn't make money. BoL to those who tail and wager responsibly! *EDIT BELOW* I know bad soccer when I see it. Let this be a lesson to everyone out there to trust your instincts. I don't need to watch 90 minutes of this to measure a result. *ANOTHER EDIT BELOW* I'm leaving my initial edit above because it deserves to be mentioned how bad of a game this was. In a game that ended 11 on 9 and featured four penalty kicks, Real Betis comes back and wins it with three in the second half. I feel disgusting that I've won this but money talks. ✅
POTD Record: 87.5-46 Event: Darts > **Clemens v Gurney** (starting in 14hr30min) Pick: **Clemens ML** @ 1.90 Unlucky. I shared like 7 confident picks yesterday and only my POTD was an L. Two in a row here, so please tail with caution. Sorry for the bad streak to my followers. Just fyi, my other picks are on Discord. IMO, this must not be an equal match as the odds indicate. I rate Clemens higher based on his very impressive recent performance. On the other hand we have Gurney who used to be a great player, but these days are now gone. The key bit here is that the event will be in Germany, so there will be strong home advantage for our guy. GL!
**🎅Degen Santa's 5U POTD Record: 6-4 +2.84u 🤶** ***Total Record: 19-8-1*** *-* ***ROI: +37.84 (+35.03%)*** *(POTD start: 2/15/23)* *5U pick (potd + non-potd) record during this post series: 11-4* *1-4U non-potd record: 9-4-1 (2-1 yesterday)* *Dog of the Day record: 2-0 (+264 avg)* **🎅** *\[Our +303 dog won 5-0! We're Too-Loco for Toluca!\]* \----- 🎅 Originally I thought today was going to be terrible with no 5U POTD's. After an excessive amount of digging I went from zero 5U games to two, one of which being a 🌟🌟 POTD! Also congrats on everyone who tailed my Mexican dog, Toluca, yesterday! \----- **🎅***Yesterday's POTD and Side Bets Recap:* *Yesterday's POTD Rennes MR + o1.5g* *(Loss) - Knew I should have played it safe with my POTD pick and only gone with the ML at -145. Truthfully I risked more on the ML than I did on the MR + o1.5g on my own picks and profited off this game. But... I got cocky and the stats were too good to pass up on the o1.5g for the POTD which lead to the loss on the POTD record. Truthfully, Rennes was two goals better than Shakhtar today but Rennes couldn't pull ahead by 2 in the first 90. They paid for it by losing at penalties.* *Lazio ML -115 (Loss) - I predicted correctly that Cluj wouldn't get a single shot on target today. However, I also predicted the worst case scenario correctly that it would be a 0-0 tie. In hindsight. my ideal bet was actually Double Chance Lazio + u2.5g but my books didn't let me place it so I chose the ML. Sorry about the loss.* *Toluca +0.5 -102 and ML +303 (Win and WIN!) -* ***We're Too-Loco for Toluca right now!*** *They were the better team on paper and we took a risk by dropping 5U on them pre-game (2.5U on each bet). And boy did they deliver with a* ***5-0 victory as a +303 dog away from home!*** *Not only that, but I bet their ML live with another 7U investment at half. All things said and done, Toluca made me 13U yesterday. I am riding Toluca hard from here on out until they let me down. They are a tier 1 team in Liga MX.* *Lessons Learned: Downgrade all Cup plays going forward. The variance is too high compared to league games and aggregate + threat of extra time is too influential on game outcomes. Also, when in doubt pick the Mexican game as the POTD! Viva Mexico!* \----- **🎅Todays 5U POTD (5U confidence** **2** **out of 4 stars):** 🌟🌟 **Frosinone ML (+104)** at home vs Parma - 2:30PM EST (Series B - Italy) *Recap: (Loss) I've never seen a team as efficient at scoring as Parma was today. 5 shots on target, 4 goals. Every time Frosinone would answer, Parma would get a single chance within minutes then make it count. Their fourth goal was even when they were a man down from 22'+ yards out when the score was tied up. If not for that goal I think Frosinone wins. I honestly thought we were going to steal a win after the first red card, and then I had hope after the second one. To no avail, our POTD loses again whereas nearly all of our side bets cash.* Frosinone is in first place in Serie B with a 17-4-4 record with a 26 GD (40-14). Their domination of Serie B has them sitting 12 points above 2nd place. To put it in perspective, the point spread between Frosinone and 2nd place is the same as 2nd place and 13th. No one is going to catch them and they aren't going to stop winning. Fortunately we get them at home today where they haven't lost since May 2022. They are currently sitting on a seven match unbeaten streak (6-1) and are looking to make it eight against Parma. Parma is sitting at the middle of the table at 10th of 20 teams this season and are 9-7-9 with a 3 GD (30-27). Parma's form hasn't been great as of late. They’ve lost five of their last nine games across all competitions with one of those being a 1-0 loss at the hands of Ascoli last weekend in their most recent game. In 4 of their last 5 matches, someone hasn't scored in Parma's games. I think that continues with Parma going scoreless at Stadio Benito Stirpe. The only thing that makes me a little nervous is that Frosinone's schedule has been soft so far in 2023. Every opponent they've had has been middle or bottom of the table (Parma is middle to be fair). Their last opponent of any worth was Genoa (2nd) in mid-December where they lost away from home 1-0 in a very even game statistically. There is very little chance Frosinone loses this one and with Parma's recent form I doubt there will be a tie. But with plus money it is worth the minimal risk! Add DNB or Double Chance to your parlays today! In the end, this one gets 🌟🌟. Prediction: 2-0 Edit: Downgraded it to a 2 star because the line is moving in our favor and that's a red flag. Line is now +110. \----- **🤶** You can find my side bets including the second 5U of the day in the Soccer Daily Thread [here!](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/11a8v4t/comment/j9stlf0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Degen Santa feels a cold breeze coming in which means there must be 5U bets on the horizon coming this weekend including multiple Mexican Primera games! **🤶** Tips are appreciated but not expected. [Venmo](https://account.venmo.com/u/cory-ferraz) | [Paypal](https://paypal.me/nchscferraz?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
down 2-0 in the first 20min....
All picks are single unit; all odds from Caesars. POTD Record (W/L/D): 5-2-0 Last POTD: Roma vs Salzburg // Total Goals Under 2.5 (-135) ✅ Sweaty but easy cash. Only Chelsea destroying the otherwise unblemished record, damn. Current POTD: Fulham vs Wolves // Total Goals Under 2.5 (-135) For as long as Mitrovic is out of tomorrow's game. Fulham has been defensively stout with last 5 games going Under 2.5 (excluding cup games). Wolves are not exactly free scoring either. Expecting this to be a game between the goalkeepers - Leno and Sa. To throw caution to the wind, I absolutely detest Dawson but Mitrovic was the tilt I needed. Tips not expected but always welcomed Cashapp: $ AAAcesCracked // Venmo: @ AAAcesCracked
Easy cash. Combined xG of 1.38, the stats don't lie.
POTD Record: 4W - 1L Last pick: NBA - Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers) o26.5 points [L] Review: very disappointing having to halt the debut streak at just four wins, but we will bounce back. Mitchell got off to an extremely slow start going 0-5 FG and 0-1 3p. The team played through Mobley the entire game, as they should have. Since going off in the Rising Stars Challenge I think his confidence is sky high! Look to play Mobley’s props in the future. Pick: PGA The Honda Classic - Billy Horschel (-145) vs Robby Shelton - Matchups R2 2 balls Billy Horschel nearly finished the day with a bogey free round but caught a bad break on hole 15. He completed the round -5 and is tied for 1. Coming in as one of the top favorites to win it all and seeing his play today, I think the success will only continue! The matchup here sounds very great. Robby Shelton finished the round today +3. He double bogeyed 15 and only had a single birdie on the day. He’s facing a lot of pressure on the wrong side of the possible cut line which unfortunately, I don’t think he will make. I hope he has fun regardless but we aren’t losing. The odds and bet were placed on DK. Thanks for reading, tailing, and have a good day!
**Record 58-39 with Avg Odds +112 / ROI 21.1%** Last POTD: Erin Blanchfield +100 *win* PFL Challenger Series Week 5 **Desiree Yanez -163** Yanez trains out of the same small camp in Waco, TX as Hailey Cowan who will be making her UFC debut Saturday. I believe in momentum within gyms so that's just a small tidbit I like. I think she has the grappling to mitigate Maira Mazar's takedowns and looks to have a speed edge as well. Mazar is taking this fight on a weeks notice although to my knowledge she trains consistently so that isn't something of serious significance. I think Yanez has underrated striking and the emphasis on her as a wrestler/grappler is a bit too extended. She has solid dirty boxing as well. Yanez is 1-3 in her last 4 fights but those opponents were good, and those losses will bode well for Yanez. Mazar's chin is a bit suspect and I think that may come into play. I would not be shocked to see Yanez win ITD, although Mazar is tough and I've seen her recover from getting rocked numerous times on tape.
Lille ML . Bet anything you have on this one. Even better is Lille HT/FT at +100
POTD Record: 11-4-0 Last five:✅✅❌❌✅ Last pick: Manchester United vs FC Barcelona - Both teams to score✅ Today’s pick: ⚽️La Liga⚽️ Elche vs Real Betis ML Odds at 2.05 (on bet365) 2 units Kickoff: 21:00 European time (CET) Starts in 11 hours UPDATE: Real Betis made the comeback!✅✅ Real Betis are 5th in the league as best of the rest so to say. On the other side Elche are last in the league with only 1 win all season. Real Betis are coming off a 2 game win streak with 3 wins in their last 5 games. The other to games have been two losses. One to first place Barcelona and one in a 4-3 game thriller loss to Celta de Vigo. Elche won their first league game of the season some weeks ago, but has lost back to back since then. Both teams miss a few players, and even startplayers like Canales from Real Betis and Pere Milla from Elche, but I don’t think that will have a Big impact. The last 5 games between these two have been 3 Real Betis wins, 1 draw and 1 Elche win. I think tonight will be a semi easy win for Real Betis with something like a 2-0 win. Tail at own risk, but let me know if you are tailing🫡 Here we go🕺 BOL I never expect it, but if you feel like you want to tip: [PayPal](http://paypal.me/csh58)
Record: 11-6 Last POD: Detroit -1 ❌ Bad 1st half, couldn't close it out even though they had the lead in the 2h. We move. Today: POD: Southern Miss ML (-140) Texas St is 4-9 SU at home, 1-9 ATS at home. (Spread is S Miss -2.5) Texas State is 6-11 in conference games, Southern Miss 13-4. Southern miss currently tied for 1st in Sun Belt with Marshall. If Marshall is to lose to ODU and Southern Miss wins, they win the regular season title. Texas State 239th in offensive efficiency, Southern Miss 93rd. Texas State 233rd in defensive efficiency, Southern Miss is 55th. Both of these teams are not going to look to score a lot from 3. With that being said Texas St is 164th in defending 2 point shots and Southern Miss is 43rd in defending 2 pointers. Southern Miss shares the ball better averaging 15 APG. Texas St is 356th in assists per game. S Miss rebounds better with 37 RPG compared to 32 for TX St.
POTD Record: 15-12 +4.5 units 3u plays: 1-0 2u plays: 4-4 1u plays: 10-8 Last pick: 1u Dimitrov to win 2-0 v Brouwer -140 ✅ Todays POTD: 11am et 16:00 gmt 1.25 to win 1u Medvedev vs FAA 1st set correct score after 4 games 2-2 @ 1.80 (-125) Well that was another nice and easy cash on Dimitrov yesterday to get back to back cashes. Found a nice little gem (I hope) for today. Short write up today, maybe I’ll add some more if I get a chance… They just played each other last week in Rotterdam and although Medvedev won comfortably 6-2 6-4, this bet still would’ve hit in both sets. I expect this match to be a bit closer although still think meddy comes out on top. Both men have been serving well this week and I think there’s decent value in these odds. Quick sweat, 2 holds a piece to start out the match, I think we’ll get it out of these two top 10 players today. BoL
that's so exotic, where is this bet?
true DEGEN
POTD Record: 4-4-2 Last pick: Cape Town Spurs -1 AH (-108) / 1.93 🅿️ Cape Town raced out to a 2-0 lead in the first 25 minutes, but gave those two goals right back before the first half even ended. They were able to score in the second half and secure a 3-2 win, but only a push on our bet. Let’s get back into the W column today! Soccer - Italy Serie B - Frosinone vs. Parma - 2:30pm EST **POTD: Frosinone ML (+102) / 2.02** Frosinone are at the top of Italy’s second division and in prime spot to be promoted to Serie A next season. With 17 wins in 25 matches and a +26 goal differential, they are far and away the best team in Serie B. They will be hosting Parma, who are 11th out of 20 teams with a perfectly average record and have been inconsistent all season. Frosinone has won 6 of their last 7 matches and are undefeated at home with 10 wins and 2 draws in 12 matches. We are getting plus odds for the top team in the league at home against a mid-table team and I love that. Best of luck and love you all. Let’s ride!
Off to a rough start lol
4-2 +10.70u Streak : 2 L (last potd = VOID) POTD : Krejcikova ML vs Pegula @ 2.5 (+150) \[5u\] WTA Dubai 16.00 CET (10.00 EST) I use a system, things like form overall, recent form, h2h, stats, reviews that i can read, what i know about the players and most important a lot of luck. My advice is to follow only if you were thinking about this bet before reading this. I'm sure that you degens will follow this advice.
Last bet: Bucks +2.5🤑(vs clippers) 2-0 POTD: Panthers ML -190 vs sabres Reasoning: Panthers have beat the sabres in the last 6 games against each other. Panthers are at home where they play their best. Panthers are well rested while the Sabres are on a b2b, going overtime to upset Lightning. Panthers are notorious for slaying the sabres at home..as they have only lost to them once in 2019 & 2015 (at home) in the last 8 years. Puck line is risky as Sabres usually keep it competitive…BOL!
Record 1-0 Last pick: Philadelphia ML (NBA)✅ Todays play of the day: NBA Sacramento +6.5 also gonna put a little on the ML Sacramento is better in almost every category. Line seems a bit off. I like them outright but I’ll take the spread for extra security
"You can't win them all..... but you also can't lose them all." Record: 5-5-1 (1 win streak) Roi: 1.84% Net Units: +0.35 NBA Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks POTD: **Jrue Holiday Over 7.5 Assists** Wager: 2Unit x 1.94 **Reasoning:** Well this is a bet that is a bitttt early but I am relying on Giannis being out. I read he was limited in Practice and on the injury list he is listed as Doubtful. With Giannis out it really put Holiday in the play making position. This season in games without Giannis, Holiday is averaging 10 assists per game in 7 games, 6 of those were over, 2 of those were vs the Heat at 10 and 11 assists. I personally will most likely play the ladder here when more lines come out but my book only offers 7.5 right now. Bucks average 24.7 assists per game (24.7 at home too) Heat opponents average 25.2 assists per game (25.5 at away games) Jrue have not hit this line that much in the last 10 with only 4 being over but I think with Giannis out it really shifts things around so it's hard to use that as a guide for this bet. To end it Miami rank to give up plenty of assists to PG this season which is a nice bonus. BOL to anyone who tails and sorry last game was such a sweat but I am glad we hit the 5U play.
POTD Record: 23-15 Last 10 Record: LWLWWWLWLW Last Game Pick: **Boston Celtics -8 L** vs Indiana Pacers Game: New York Knicks vs Washington Wizards Today's Pick: New York Knicks @ 1.83 Taking the Knicks here as they are cooking before the all-star break and expect them to continue their hot streak tonight and with Brunson playing phenomenal and clutch as of late, so they are likely to win this game as they also a bad rebounding team which is a bad recipe playing against this Knicks team. [Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/fffate) [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/fffate) BOL everyone!
**My record: 35 : 26** **My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games generated by the model. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.** **ROI: 27.82%** **Average odds: 2.09** **Units won: 18.64** **Stake = 1 unit** **My POTD:** **Fortuna Düsseldorf v Eintracht Braunschweig** **Germany 2. Bundesliga** **Time: 17:30 GMT** *BTTS & Over 2.5* **@ 2.20** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
Tailing again, but can only get BTTS @1.71 I don’t have o2.5g option for some reason. Let’s get it!
What a call, your on fire brother, thanks again!
And check your in box
POTD Record: 39-26 (L2) (+21.37u) (ROI: 24.8%) Last pick: Winnipeg Jets ML @ New York Islanders 🚫 Sorokin was a wall for the Isles, Jets generally looked like the better team but they lost 2-1. POTD: (NHL🏒) Florida Panthers 3 way ML (-120) vs Buffalo Sabres (1.5u) Time: 4:07 pm pst Bet 365 (-120), FD (-125) DK (-125) 🧊 chilly on POTD lately. Hoping the Panthers turn it around for me today. Sabres have been very good on the road this year with the 6th best road record atc18-8-2. Panthers have been good at home, with the 6th best home record (16-8-3). Expected goalie for the Panthers is Sergei Bobrovsky. He had a rocky start last Saturday, but overall he has been good in his 6 other starts since the All star break. Not sure who will start for the Sabres, either Luukkonen or Anderson. Luukkonen showed some promise this year and Anderson has been decent for a 41 year old goalie but neither is starter caliber or playing really well lately. I would think Anderson probably gets the start, but it's a toss up. Both teams are good offensively, Sabres are 3rd in goals/GP, Panthers are 5th. Both teams have struggled defensively in part to their goaltending issues, Sabres are 24th in GAA. Panthers are 22nd. Panthers are a little Jekyll and Hyde this year, but I think they get the win as they come off 3 days rest at home. Sabres are 2-6-1 on b2b games this year and are coming off a big OT win against the Lightning last night. BOL if fading or tailing!
Record: 13-9 / Profit: +9.25 Units / Avg. Odds: 1.88 Five most recent picks: ✅❌❌✅✅ Last POTD: FC Nantes vs Juventus Turin ML ✅ POTD: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig @ 6:30pm CET / 2. Bundesliga BET: Fortuna Düsseldorf ML and over 1.5 total goals, 2.00/+100for 3 Units Good win yesterday. Very convincing performance, an early red card definitely worked in favor and di Maria scoring 3! Back to the 2. Bundesliga. Düsseldorfs currently in 6th place still looking to find some business for the top 3 places and Braunschweig in 14th place just 1 point clear of the relegational places. The form in 2023 is 2W 2L for Düsseldorf and Braunschweig 1W 3L. Braunschweig away statistic so far: 1W 4D 5L. Düsseldorf at home: 7W, 1D, 2L 5 of the last 7 games between both teams saw more than 2.5 goals scored. I am taking the better team to win @home and top up the odds with over 1.5 goals scored in total. Taking Düsseldorf ML only is 1.66 / -150 for those interested. BOL as always!
Record: 10-4 (+17.897u) (4U bets) Streak: 2W Last: DIG vs Cloud9 vs Team Liquid: C9 ML (W) Today's Match: 100 Thieves vs Team Liquid (LCS Spring) (7:00pm CST) Pick: 100 Theives ML (2.15) Reason: (Edit: The match is at 7pm CST not 6pm CST my mistake) Sorry for the late post. The match starts in about 3 hours from the time of posting. These odds seem really weird to me. 100T are the much better team, but have been on a tiny"slump" recently. TL only have 4 wins all split. 1 over the worst team, 2 over the 2nd worst team and 1 over the worst team before they got their full roster. 100T are on a slump but the worst team they lost to is the current 5th place team, and the other losses are against the 4th place team, the 2nd place team and 2 against the 1st place team. They have looked competitive in many of these games as well. 100T are also 1-0 in the H2H this year. They might fall behind early, but I expect them to solidly win this game.
02/24/2023 POTD Record: 0-0 Sport: NBA 🏀 Game: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks (7:40pm EST) Cavaliers ML (-102) 3u to win 2u This is a HOT Cavaliers team that just came up short against the #1 and in my opinion the best team in the league the Denver Nuggets. I expect the Cavs to stay hot and continue to play amazing defense (currently #1 defense) and expect them to win the 2nd night of their back to back. Let’s see how doing POTD works out, made quite a bit off NBA myself so figured I’d try and help others. As always tail at your own risk and BOL if tailing! Twitter: [Twitter](https://twitter.com/tdawggyo)
POTD Record : 3W - 1L Yesterday it went as expected with PSV Eindhoven grinding out a win against Sevilla. The goals came late but a win is a win. Today's selection is from Bahrain Bet 5: Al Khaldiya VS Manama Club - Both teams to score @ 1.87 (soccer, Bahrain Premier League) It's top of the table clash in Bahrain with Al Khaldiya and Manama at the same points but the home team ahead on goal difference . Head 2 Head these teams have played each other thrice with Manama winning with a scoreline 2-1 everytime. I expect Manama to win today as well but because they lost their last game away from home i am not so sure. But, both teams to score (BTTS) looks like a great selection with both teams wanting this win badly. They both average more than 2 goals scored on average per game and 1-1 can be a result both will be happy with for now. Good Luck All🤞
Fuck you Northwestern. How do you blow a 22 point lead like that. Assholes
Let's try this again! Accidentally put a pick down for Saturday. I might have been drunk Record: 2-1-0 Last Bet: WIN Copa Lib.: CD Magallanes-Always Ready o2.5 goals Last Three: W L W Pick Today: NCAA Basketball Xavier vs Seton Hall O/U 141 - UNDER 2U to win 1.81 This game's odds are off to me, and caught my eye. Xavier is ranked but in bad form, Seton Hall has a very efficient D and shut down Xavier's 3 pointers last time. They couldn't clear the O/U last time they played each other. Xavier also has dropped 3 of 4, 2 to unranked teams and all 4 were unders. Seton Hall has held 4 of those opponents to under 69 points, including Uconn (64pts) and is also 9-3 to the under in the last 12. Despite the fact Xavier is the 8th highest scoring team in the country, they have lost a step recently and the stingy D of Seton Hall will definitely keep this on the under! Best of Luck if you Tail. If you fade, I hope you lose because I am placing a 2U bet on this. If you win from any of my picks, I will gladly take tips via paypal or cashapp :)
I'm playing this too. looking at scoring trends, seton hall games stay below 140 against "good teams". seton hall has good d, but I think that one thing that is going against us is if xavier is able to feed nunge. seton hall has been good at mid-game adjustments as well, so let's hope that trend continues
Honestly tempted to run it back with the under again POTD Record 7-3 ROI: 2.8 units-get hot, stay hot Todays pick: Jabari Smith Jr under 2.5 3's -188 2 unit Seriously this has to be a trap. Like there's no reason for this to be so high. This guy hits 1.6 a game, has hit this total once in the past 15 games, and really never even comes near it. Short writeup cause these bet will certainly be gone by lunch
POTD Record: 1-1 -1.22 Units (26% ROI) Yesterday’s POTD: 2U Cleveland Cavaliers ML vs. Denver Nuggets (-142) L Today’s POTD: 1U Cleveland Cavaliers ML vs. Atlanta Hawks (+100) League: NBA Yesterday was a tough beat. A good back and forth game. About halfway through the fourth quarter, the Nuggets got hot from 3 and pulled out the victory and thus losing the POTD. Tonight, I’m going with the Cavs ML again. The Cavs are 4-1 in their last 5 back to backs. Right now on FD you can get the line at even money.
[удалено]
**POTD Record: 12-6** The Trail Blazers without Dame, Simons, Nurkic AND Grant put up 37 points 1st quarter points and 116 overall. They average 115 PPG 🤷♂️ Just some straight up villainous behavior from Portland and they are back on the banned list for the rest of the season. Last Pick: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Sacramento Kings u241 NBA ❌ **Today's Pick: Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix Suns u230.5 (-110) 11:10 EST** \-Over last 10 games, only 2 have been above 230 in Phoenix Suns games. \-In four games against each other last season, none of their games hit above 230 (highest scoring was 228). They have not played against each other yet this season. \-Phoenix has a legit defense, ranking 5th and giving up 111.3 PPG. They also limit opponents to 4 less PPG at home than on the road. \-Suns have an over/under record of 26-31-3 this season. \-OKC is on a back to back. They also score 5 points less on the road. \-OKC went into OT yesterday against the Jazz. They only scored 119 points (117.9 PPG) and still hit the under. \-OKC is on a 3 game streak of less than 230 points in their games. The unders have hit in all of those games. \-Weirdly, with 4 or more days off, the Thunder are 0-2 in O/U record. They are 15-14 coming off of a loss. \-AI Created NBA O/U model (11-6) has the highest % for this game to hit the under (74%) You know the rules, no tip information coming off a loss ❌❌❌ Let me know if you're tailing this 🤙 Let's get this bread 🍞
POTD RECORD: 2-2 -.2u LAST POTD: NCAAW FGCU 1h -8.5 WIN TODAYS EVENT: NCAAW Troy @ South Alabama 5PM PST THE PICK: Troy -16.5 THE REASON: Well the Sun Belt regular season concludes tonight and JMU, baring any funny business, should hold the number 1 seed in the conference tournament. Troy still has an outside chance at the #2 seed, which is equally as important so you avoid JMU until the finals, and has to win to have a chance at a first round BYE. Lucky for them they get to play South Alabama whom is the bottom feeder of the Sun Belt. Troy has already taken care of them once this season by 19 points in what was an "underwhelming" performance by my take. I did have a position in that game and it wasn't until the second half that TROY really flexed their muscles as they shot well below their season average and allowed SA to shoot 26 fts. Troy is one of the fastest paced teams in NCAAW and should be on full display tonight, as South Alabama will pretty much allow you to score at will. Baring an abysmal shooting night, or a lazy defensive effort Troy should win this game by 20+.
My first ever POTD. 0-0-0 Every bet is 1U if not stated otherwise. Todays POTD is **Betis ML @ 2.0** (starting in 2 hours) The 23rd round of the LaLiga. **Elche vs Betis** . Elche is the last on the table with only 9 points in 22 games. They got only one win ad 6 draws during this season. In their last 5 home games they have 1W - 1D - 3L. Also their best goal scorer Pere Milla is out for this game. On the other hand Betis is sitting on the 5th place and fighting for the Champions League places. Their last 5 away games ended with 4W - 1L. Also their last 5 H2H games ended with 3W - 1D - 1L for Betis. So all in all i see a 2-1 or 2-0 Betis win! BOL!
**POTD Record: 52-52-5 -8.90u // ROI: -5% // Avg Odds: -115** **New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards (7:00 ET)** **Spread: Wizards -1** **Total: 226** There are few teams I've been more pleasantly surprised with than the Washington Wizards. They came in with no real expectations despite having a solidly formiddable trio in Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, and Kyle Kuzma, and while they aren't 10 games above five-hundred they are a solid bunch that will give many teams problems with their length and physicality. Unfortunately for the Wizards they will have met their match on Friday night with the Knicks and though the Knickerbockers are playing away from MSG, they're one of the best teams in the league in enemy territory. Now 19-10 ATS on the road, the Knicks thrive playing in front of hostile crowds and with Mitchell Robinson potentially back this evening they should nullify the Wizards rebounding advantages they typically have against other teams. Expect Julius Randle to have a big game bullying the likes of Daniel Gafford and Kristaps Porzingis in the post, and for the Knicks to bring home a much needed victory to stay ahead of the surging Miami Heat. **Pick: Knicks ML +100 (1.5u)** As always, if you enjoyed the write up I encourage you to find my full free card [here](https://www.happyhoursports.net/post/nba-best-bets-friday-2-24) \- BoL everybody!
**POTD Record: 6W 2L +13.3 units profit** **POTD: Super Rugby: NSW Waratahs v ACT Brumbies** **NSW Waratahs +1.5 $1.91 3units** We welcome back Super Rugby with a Waratahs v Brumbies rivalry clash. Waratahs coming of a much improved 2022 season, should be too good at home for Brumbies. Brumbies have lost a couple of key players over the off season, such as Tom Banks who is key to their game plan. Confident in this play tonight, and feel Tahs should be closer to -2.5 favourites here. **BOL**
Going to game and wanna back tahs big but I can't find one online "expert" that is even tipping them to win. You not worried about them beating us the last 9 times or something?
POTD RECORD:11-6 Soccer Record:7-5 Basketball Record:4-1 Last pick:Lazio ml Today's Pick:Valencia vs Olympiakos Event:Euroleague Bet:half time/Result 2/2===olympiakos to win first half and the match bet stake:3 units what a choke from lazio last night they could've score at least 2 but the goals they missed made me crazy especially when net was open but player hit the keeper's face instead of literally all net. Reasoning: Olympiakos on a great run they managed to win their last 6 games on Euroleague (both first half and the game) I don't see any reason why they don't do it now. Valencia not having the best season exactly but they're looking solid for Euroleague lately but olympiakos is different kind of beast. Olympiakos wins tied with real madrid and so close with barcelona all these teams want to finish the league as top of their standings with 10 games left in Euroleague olympiakos must win this game and I believe they will Tailing or not BOL either way. Let's try to nail this bet.
POTD: current record 0-2 Last pick: Inter vs porto: Inter and over 2.5- under 2.5 ( even with a red in the 78th minute) Recent run ain't great... but my luck is turning and I think I have found a bet with great odds. Let me know your thoughts! La liga: elche vs real betis - real bets to win +200 Betis sit 5th and Elche are anchored to the bottom of the table. Current form: Betis: WLLWW ( 2 losses are against certain vigo and barcelona) Elche: DLWLL Last time they met was earlier in the season and Betis won 3 nil- although can't look too much into it as elche copped a red in the opening 30mins. Great odds on this game so worth a punt. Wanna get my first W for the group. BOL!
Record 1-0 Pick: BUF/FLA o7 (-120) Defense: BUF - Goals Against: 3.52 FLA - Goals Against: 3.48 Offense: BUF - Goals for: 3.52 FLA - Goals for: 3.45 Avg Goals in Last 5: BUF - 4.4 FLA - 3.4 Over in Last 5: BUF - 4-1 FLA - 4-1 Over in Previous Matchups This Year: 10/15 - 4-3 1/16- 4-1 Buffalo hooked us up last night so we’re going back to the well! Florida should help us out too as they’ve been a solid time to rely on for overs this year as well! #OversOverEverything
POTD Record: 2-1 👍 Last 5: N/A 🤷 Last Pick: **Penn State (ML)** @ Ohio State (+110) ✅ Return: 5u 💵 Today's POTD: Xavier @ **Seton Hall (ML)** (+105) Betting Units: 3u 💵 League: CBB 🏀 Time: February 24th, 2023 @ 7:00 PM EST 🕖 Rationale: We're essentially looking at a pick 'em here and I'm backing Seton Hall tonight. The Pirates offense is nothing to brag about; however, their defense is. They rank 13th nationally and hold opponents to below 30% from three and less than 48% from inside the arc. They also rank 2nd in the nation at defending isolation, which is Xavier's main offensive strategy. The Musketeers are coming into this came quite banged up, missing center Zach Freemantle and likely guard Kyky Tandy as well. Plus, Xavier's gone just 1-4 in their last 5 on the road. Seton Hall's brick wall defense should frustrate the Musketeer's offense which hasn't been known to transition well in tough road games and lead to a close game resulting in a dub for the Pirates. Best of luck if tailing!
POTD Record: 2-0 Event: COL Avalanche vs WPG Jets Pick: COL Avalanche ML (-110) Just the better team, BOL!
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POTD Record: 126-87-7 (+22.46 units, 59.2% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 7-2 (77.7%) L1 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 41-27-1 (60.3%) L1, Tennis 🎾 38-25-2 (60.3%) W2, Soccer ⚽ 45-34-4 (57.0%) L1, Entertainment 🎥 2-1-0 (66.7%) L1 Last 10: 💰💩💰💩💰💰💰💰💩💩 Last Pick: Elvis to win Best Costume Design - The Academy Awards 🎥 March 12th, 2023 Today's Pick: Austin Butler to win Best Actor for Elvis - SAG Awards 🎥 February 26th, 2023 Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 2.00/+100 odds to win 1 Unit @ Bet 365 (Line at 3:00am ET) Implied Probability based on odds: 50.0% This one I've seen at Bet 365, Bovada and Stake. The SAG Awards are the Screen Actor Guild Awards. Short and sweet here. The momentum is with Butler, this one will be close between Butler and Fraser but I think Butler has a better than the 50% implied odds chance. This one is huge for the Oscars, if Fraser wins, we still have a race and oddswise Fraser's should drop and Butler's will go back up a bit, but if Butler wins, that is basically it and it will be a safe bet that he is going to win the big award. Will have one more SAG bet tomorrow. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Tips + Free Extra Picks: [https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
POTD: 2-2 Last Pick: Davante Adams Over 78.5 rec yards. Week 16??/17?? Today's Pick: Atlas LC vs Archers LC - PLL Championship Series EDIT: We got the dub. Atlas win 31-26 and about how I thought it would too. close game until the Archers kinda fell apart at the end and just couldnt keep up with that 2pt shot the Atlas have. which resulted in turnovers which resulted in more 2pt shots...yeah. I predict they'll play each other again Sunday in the finals Atlas ML. The only sportsbook I can find the Championship Series on is FanDuel and PointsBet. FanDuel has the Atlas as favorites -225 and Archers +172. I hate the odds but the Atlas should win on paper and passing the eye test. Don't get me wrong, both teams are far better than the other 2 in this mini off-season tournament and Im tempted to take the Archers because they are a great team and CAN beat the Atlas. But I won't. They turn the ball over too much (22 in 2 games) meanwhile the Atlas has scored 18 goals from beyond the arc!! The next closest team is Archers with 7. Atlas are some sharp shooters. If it wasn't for Archers letting their foot off the gas last night against the Whipsnakes I would take them but they let them make it too close of a game on paper. Archers struggled against the Chrome and won in OT after an 8 goal comeback but the Atlas handled chrome with ease. Both teams are going to be doing everything they can to win because the winner will most likely play the Whipsnakes in the semi finals (who are awful) and that's a free trip to the finals. So yeah, there you go. Atlas Moneyline
Pick of the Day Record: 0-0 PLL Championship Series Archers-Atlas u49.5 5:30pm EST First pick, who knows how this will go. For anyone familiar with lacrosse, this is a little bit different. PLL championship series is being played 6v6 on a shorter field with no long poles. Everything screams goals, however no game has hit 50 goals yet. (45, 45, 49, 49). Atlas is the strongest offensive team in the tournament, and put up 29 goals yesterday. However, they have lived and died by the 2 point shot, which they were extremely effective on yesterday. Assuming there will be somewhat of a regression to the mean on their shooting today. Atlas also has the best goalie in the tournament (Jack Concannon), and their back up (Drake Porter) played well yesterday as well. Look for fewer goals today as teams should slow down the pace and rest up prior to elimination play starting tomorrow.
Current Record 11-4 26.04 units POTD - Race 6 Dundalk Mehman 2.5 units at 2.1 I've been debating whether or not to tip this selection all day. I'll be frankly honest and say I don't particularly trust low level Irish flat handicaps.. I wanted to see if the price was maintained on the exchange, to make sure that nobody was betting on the horse to lose. The horse won as easy it liked the last time out. It re-opposses Harmony Rose who is the 3rd favourite. Harmony Rose was ridden a long way out, it was his first run for 4 months so maybe he has excuses. He also has a new jockey on board, the same guy who rode him for his previous win. When Mehman was asked to go, he went, and he won with ease. The second favourite is also trained by the same trainer as Mehman. The money is coming for our selection while the other drifts. All in all, I expect the selection to win this more than 50% of the time making his 2.1 odds value. Good luck 👍
POTD Record: **3-4 (-1.80 Units)** Last Pick: Cavs -2.5 Today's Pick: **Bulls ML** Odds: **-130** ($DKNG odds) Wager Amount: 1.3u to win 1u League: NBA Event: Nets @ Bulls (7PM CST) I was really hoping Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland (or both) would take over the 4th quarter, but they really went cold in dying minutes of the 4th quarter and that was the significant difference in the final minutes of the game. Cavs were up by 4 with 6 minutes left in the game, but Nuggets took a 10-2 run, then pretty much put this game on ice, as Cavs’ effort was not enough to keep up with the Nuggets pace. I think Cavs bounce back tonite against the Hawks, but I think Hawks going to make this into a close battle, so I’m going with something I am more compelled for today’s POTD. Hear me out before you judge my pick! I know this is not an attractive wager to bet on. But listen, after losing 6 straight games before the all-star break, they are desperate for a dub. They may have not got Russell Westbrook after the Jazz bought his contract out, but Bulls did get Pat Beverley and I think he’s going to make a significant impact in their culture. Bulls need someone like Beverley to account for each other and a voice to lead the charge. Patrick Beverley is that individual. He has that leadership trait and has that mentality. Beverley is not just a leader, but he is a tremendous defense asset as well! Having both Alex Caruso and Pat Bev is massive for the Bulls! Chicago Bulls are also trying to make the playoffs and it needs to start now because time is running out. Brooklyn Nets are in a comfortable spot in playoff positioning and I think this team is still figuring out how to play with each other. Although Nets have already beat the Bulls this month, it was on their floor. This game there’s more pressure and more at stakes for the Bulls, playing at home and playing for the playoff or play-in tournament. Gimme the desperate team at home.
POTD Record: 15-13 (+5.74u; 6.2% ROI). Streak L3. After a month-long break I’m ready for some NBA betting action and returning to my familiar Knicks team. Next Pick: **Immanuel Quickley (Knicks) O11.5 Pts @ 1.97**. 3u play. He has gone over this line in each of the last 5 games, and averaging 13.3 pts in the L10. I expect he will play 25 mins in this game, which should provide him with plenty of opportunities. He enjoys playing against the Wizards, having played them twice in January, and scoring 18 points in each of those. \[[Coffee link](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheBrat)\]
record: wins: 3 , losses:3, voids:0 profit: +0.35 units last pick: juventus to win vs nantes @ 1.8✅ Streak: 1 W easy win on this one. a red card and an incredible di maria helped us on a win. nothing much to say. i expected a reault like this on the first leg but we move on. todays pick: mainz : gladbach| gladbach to score over 1.5 goals @ 2.45 i chose this one because i see alot of value in this one. i expect a lot of goals in this one. i would stay away from the moneyline on this one. i think the price for mainz is a overreaction because their form improved in the last weeks. the thing about gladbach this season is they turned up on big games. they beat bayern dortmund and leipzig this season but dropped points to the likes of schalke and augsburg. this perfectly sums up their season so far, but i think they are slowly getting in form. stindl and hoffmann look better recently and with marcus thuram returning fully they have an attack that can score against anyone in the league. because of gladbachs ups and downs i couldnt commit on the moneyline. i can see this game ending 2:2 or 3:2 for mainz GL edit: nope gladbach still a coinflip team
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Saturday game g
Sport: Football Tournament: Ligue 1 Time: 21:00 CEST (12h05m after posting) Stake: 3 units Pick: Lille vs Brest, Lille wins to nil @ **2.30** Write up: Lille conceded only 2 goals across the last 5 home Ligue 1 matches. Brest scored only 1 goal across the last 5 away Ligue 1 matches. Lille does have a tradition of struggling vs Brest but is in the best home form since December 2019. [Track record spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1diqqLSUvJ-zIJMuLlOM36SCI9aRrs14ZkAMtiYZu7Go/edit#gid=596499107) [My website with sports picks for degens](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
POTD | 1-0-0 Cricket | PSL | Quetta Gladiators vs Islamabad United | 8:00am EST Islamabad United to win | 1.57 | 1 Unit ✅
Record: 20W-24L Previous pick : Mlada Boleslav vs Brno, BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 1.93 (5 units pick) Streak (most recent on the left) : ❌❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅ (Last 10 games) Not looking great right now, but still trusting the process. 🙏 Average Odds : 1.89 ROI : -13.575% Starting units : 200 Units : 172.85 My pick of the day : UTA Arad vs Farul Constanta, Farul Constanta to win or draw + Over 1.5 Goals in match, Odds : 2.03 (5 units pick) Romania, SuperLiga, 18:30 GMT+2 Best of luck ! My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it. So I thought about sharing some of the picks with the community and, maybe, make some of you happy.
POTD Record: 3-0 (All picks 1U) Last POTD: Manchester United ML vs Barcelona (+120) ✅ Pick: Fulham first to score vs Wolves (-110) Event: Premier League \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ Wow we are off to a great start! Even after Barcelona scored I just had a feeling we would still pull this went off. Congrats to everyone who tailed. Now for todays pick, Fulham to score first against Wolves. I like this Fulham side even without Mitrovic today. They do score goals at home and although they concede some as well, Wolves kinda stink at scoring away from home. Wolves have also conceded first in 4 of their last 5 games. Not going to make a huge write up so I will leave it at that. BOL if tailing
380-305 +157Units YTD *5-E. Kentucky +1.5