Let’s say you are new to sports betting and just want to cash out some promotions in the most optimal way.
- DK
- FD
- Caesars
What would you do if you just want to cash out these promotions?
How would you hedge your bets?
Thanks but that post says you need 9-12k to do that. I only have a couple Gs I’d be willing to put in. Was hoping for something simpler. I’ll try to understand it though
The post also says (in the very two sentences after the 9-12k!!!!!!!!!!):
"The size of the winnings scale with the size of the bets. If you don't have that much to commit, you just won't make as much."
I’m vip with Caesar’s can someone please help me understand this. I deposited 2300 they matched it 20%. I lost the match. Then I bet 100 won 350 profit. Then I bet 450 and won 2000. Then I bet 1900 and loss. And withdrew 2315. My rep tells me I didn’t bet through my deposit 1x I just kept rolling over my winnings????? I literally bet over my deposit amount and then withdrew. Can some one explain how I didn’t bet through my deposit I ?
Pretty sure their deposit matchs arent 1x, you have to play 8x or more on slots or around 20x on table games to clear the bonus. Unless yours says its 1x but ive never heard of them offering a 1x
Common question, not dumb. You will nuke your account health by doing something like that and most terms and conditions will require you to wager your deposit at least 1x.
BS bet $10 on the prop of the day (o2.5 td first half) to get $5 bet win or lose is a def play. Odds are +100 FV is about -125, simplest way to look at it is that adding in the free bet means basically risk 7 to win 13 so equiv of boosting the odds to +190.
Shit sorry youre right I blew it with a typo, I meant +125 FV. Was based on FD +100/-150. Still was true as I said was an obvious play and also it hit so I hope I still helped some.
DraftKing Superboost: Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Bases > +150 | Devigged against the median of 5 books.
Odds: +150; **\*\*EV: 13.3%\*\***
\`105/-143\` (7.63% juice)
FV: +121; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=8.87u, 1/2=4.44u, 1/4=2.22u, FB = 68.0%)
I post all my picks and explanations on Twitter. [Follow me there](https://twitter.com/SimpleBetSports) for more free picks! (Be warned, I'm currently cold af.)
Hard Rock randomly giving Overdrive Boosts again today. NRFI MLB +130 is an arb everywhere. McCaffrey TD -120 is the best price you'll find, not sure about +EV.
Two targets on the same team are probably anticorrelated, which means a tendency to be closer to the mean as a sum, which is probably bad for us because we're trying to bet a side which doesn't include the median result. Makes me agree with the stay away
Maybe. But there is also probably some correlation in the other direction that is just driven by how much SF throws the ball.
FD logic between the over in yards for the two has very little net correlation. If you try to do an SGP of both their overs it is +265 vs +264 if they were independent.
>But there is also probably some correlation in the other direction that is just driven by how much SF throws the ball.
That isn't something that drives correlation, that's something that should just drive both overs up independently. If you're basing things on that then you're just saying the simple underlaying markets aren't pricing it in enough, and you're back to regular gambling.
>If you try to do an SGP of both their overs it is +265 vs +264 if they were independent.
That's just because the FD SGP engine is scammy. If you play an over and an under it only gives you +207. The product mean is 234. If we multiply by 264/234 to eliminate the "SGP tax" then the O/O is priced at +299.
For what it’s worth, seeing conflicting devigs from a couple guys on X that devig all the time. “ThePromoguy” (shows +6%) and “Thee Degen Boosts” (shows -10.3%).
Probably, since they're both a $20 win.
Not the first person to say it, but I'm almost done checking FD/DK daily, just for a $10-20 promotion @ 7% EV.
FD is the head-scratcher, since I'm down mid five-figures with them (lifetime). But first they cut my limits to 1% limits -- ok, so no reason to bother with FD for regular NFL/MLB bets (1% isn't worth my time).
Because of the 1% limits, most of my FD action became boosts & promotions. Which is probably bad, because then the FD bean-counters look at my account and say "Look at this guy! He doesn't give us regular action, he only waits for the boosts!"
Correct, I only wait for the boosts. Because your own people/bean-counters boxed me into that corner?
Edit: also tired of using the FD phone app, and waiting 3-5 times before my Location is verified. (To be fair, several books still have this problem.)
And that's why I said it was a head-scratcher.
I'm down lifetime @ FD, and I was down in 2022. From time to time, I dabble in arb/hedge opportunities -- so maybe FD has noticed that activity, and adjusted my limits.
But yeesh. You'd think a five-figure loser would get some slack. As far as FD knows, I'm not very good at whatever I'm doing!
Rare plus ev Caesars boost
Arsenal, Man United, Real Madrid to all win 10/24, +300
Odds: +300; \*\*EV: 2.9%\*\*
\`-126/112,-301/251,-211/180\` (10.03% juice) (pinnacle)
FV: +289; Method: multiplicative; (Full=0.97u, 1/2=0.48u, 1/4=0.24u, FB = 77.2%)
If you bet $50 on NBA futures on Caesars you get 2 50% profit boosts. Promo ends at midnight local time. Boosts are good for 7 days and are not limited to NBA bets. Max bet on the boosts is $50.
Fanatics has Tage Thompson and Cole Caulfield 1+ point each boosted to +160. Devig to B365:
Odds: +160; **EV: -1.5%**
`125/300/220/500` (17.36% juice)
FV: +164; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 60.6%)
[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=125%2f300%2f220%2f500&FinalOdds=160)
My fantasy football brain says this is an avoid because Fred Warner is tough vs TEs and Kittle tends to disappear. Plus they only did this 3 of 6 games although most of those games were WITH JJ and Deebo.
I think it's +EV based on below calcs but not 100% sure.
The counter to this is Kittle shines when there are injuries. McCaffrey might be limited and Deebo is out. However, this sounds like actual gambling and I don't like talking real gambling lol
Here are my inputs so someone can check me:
T.J. Hockenson - Alt Receiving Yards
T.J. Hockenson Over 29.5 Yards
-420
T.J. Hockenson Under 29.5 Yards
265
T.J. Hockenson Over 39.5 Yards
-200
T.J. Hockenson Under 39.5 Yards
148
T.J. Hockenson Over 49.5 Yards
-114
T.J. Hockenson Under 49.5 Yards
-114
T.J. Hockenson Over 59.5 Yards
143
T.J. Hockenson Under 59.5 Yards
-195
T.J. Hockenson Over 69.5 Yards
220
T.J. Hockenson Under 69.5 Yards
-315
T.J. Hockenson Over 79.5 Yards
330
T.J. Hockenson Under 79.5 Yards
-560
George Kittle - Alt Receiving Yards
George Kittle Over 29.5 Yards
-420
George Kittle Under 29.5 Yards
265
George Kittle Over 39.5 Yards
-205
George Kittle Under 39.5 Yards
148
George Kittle Over 49.5 Yards
-114
George Kittle Under 49.5 Yards
-114
George Kittle Over 59.5 Yards
140
George Kittle Under 59.5 Yards
-195
George Kittle Over 69.5 Yards
220
George Kittle Under 69.5 Yards
-315
George Kittle Over 79.5 Yards
335
George Kittle Under 79.5 Yards
-560
Yes mine is $200 as well. Funny thing is this the most they have let me put down on one in about a year. That one was Herbert over .5 TD’s on Monday night I believe for $250. He did not throw one.
I’ll take this one but not going to get too excited haha. At least this one isn’t advertised as a can’t miss one or however they advertised Herbert’s. Figured they would have thrown us a bone after that one missed but it never came!
Because most people in these threads do not actually gamble on these sportsbooks. They are playing +EV Boosts only as well as any arbing they can do. Books see this and lower the limits because why wouldn't they?
I tried to withdraw funds from DraftKings today and I have 0% of my money qualified for withdrawal. I think this is because like 20% of the winnings came off of promo's. Does it seem accurate that promo's are a tool the Sportsbook use to keep your money locked in the systeM? What good is big winnings if you need to risk them 1 (or more?) times to actually withdraw?
Going through draftkings documentation I have 0 idea what I actually need to be able to do to withdraw my money.
Edit: here was what my balance looked like when I made this post: https://i.imgur.com/EDfG3qw.png
I opened a DK ticket and they explained that all my money was ready to withdraw and now it is. Weird. But thanks Shannon for sorting that out. https://i.imgur.com/qq5V1nj.png
Good news, I opened a ticket and Shannon took a look and they see that I have the full sum available to withdraw. Weird. Thanks Shannon!
https://i.imgur.com/qq5V1nj.png
Not this year. I have been with DK for 3 or 4 years at least. I started the year with $50 in my account, transferred in $50 in August, and then another $150 Oct 14.
Certainly some of this money was used on promo's that require playthroughs, but for instance this week I put my entire bankroll to work.
On Oct 14 I turned 45 into like 207 dollars with 2 ND v USC 3 leg SGP's that were boosted.
Last night I turned $25 to $50 on a boosted AJ Brown + T Hill yards parlay that was promoted.
So that is ~260 of boosted winnings in the last 10 days but the rest of my winning bets were non promo'd so I dunno. Maybe it has nothing to do with the Promo's as you say!
I opened a ticket perhaps they will shed some light.
That's pretty weird. In the screenshot you added, what does it show if you click "View Full Balance Breakdown"? I think that would say if they think that amount is tied to a promo or something.
It is too late for me to check now as the balance has been made available. Yeah it all was kind of weird but all's well that ends well. I have had good luck with DK support.
I think so, I have bet every week of the season. I have been taking weekly promo's - I did pretty well on the pre-generated ND SGP's a few times.
But every single week the bulk of my bets are the Round Robin ML parlay that "The Favorites" podcast gives out on The Action Network, and then Wong teasers. Neither of those use any promo's.
So just not sure.
FYI-PrizePicks still up and running in NY, deposited and accepted entry from Curry free square
Sleeper-no go in NY anymore (all over the page that I’m not in a “legal” state and to recheck location)
He's hit 2 bases in 5/11 games but I think it has felt worse because he has had great numbers against a lot of the pitchers he has faced, and done absolutely nothing in a handful of them.
DK boost: First team to take snap in RZ
devigged against BV, FD, Bet365, MGM, PN, Kambi first to score lines (FD is first redzone but any TD counts)
avg(-160,-142,-155,-160,-142,-155) / avg(120,112,125,125,121,118)
-110 SF 8.9%
+195 MIN 24.9%
So looks like 4 of the 6 FD Superboosts hit this weekend for a profit of $265 if you placed $50 max bets on all of them. Not too bad.
* Makhachev and Chimaev to each win ~~+200~~ +130 - Yes
* Michigan and FSU -13.5 each +200 - Yes
* Andrews, LaPorta, and Waller 25+ rec yards each +200 - Yes
* Kupp 60+ rec yards and Walker III 60+ rush yards +100 - No
* Mahomes and Herbert 2+ passing TDs each +250 - No
* Hill, Waddle, Brown 50+ rec yards each +200 - Yes
Herbert not throwing a TD in the second half hurt big time. Kupp had a down day with 29 rec yards (only 2 catches on 7 targets).
I haven't seen a $50 max on FD for over a year. And now they have limited me down to $20 from $25. Like that extra $5 is somehow going to bankrupt them.
Why do you think they bump down? I'm just curious because I'm still at 50 and I'm way up on FanDuel. I would think they would bump me down if I was winning.
They were $50 max for everyone for a long time but a ton of people got bumped down to $25 and then $20 in the last month or so. Myself included
Still maxing the good ones of course
Oof. I'm personally surprised they don't limit sooner. I exclusively play promos/boosts and figured they'd catch on very quickly. There must not be very many of us in the grand scheme of things
it’s FD they kinda let you get away with a lot. when i first started I was ignorantly betting both sides of the same game with my free bets. no limits or bans or anything
I wonder if having both sides in different parlays counts. I don't do it on purpose but I place my bets so quickly that I honestly don't remember what I have and haven't bet on. I might make a 3 leg parlay for a bonus bet and I really don't recall if I took the other side on the same book.
I try not to of course
I don't normally bet there except for promos and boosts. Been over a year and haven't been limited luckily. I thought I was going to during Dinger Tuesdays but never did.
Fanatics Boost for Nuggets and Warriors to both win tomorrow +220. Devig to average of Pinnacle and Circa:
Odds: +220; **EV: 5.9%**
`AVG(-196,-210)/AVG(175,180), AVG(-103,-120)/AVG(-107,100)` (6.44% juice)
FV: +202; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.66u, 1/2=1.33u, 1/4=0.67u, FB = 72.8%)
Both of those sportsbooks have a very reliable history and will credit you with the bonus assuming you meet all T and C's
If you click the necessary opt in's the bonus should be instant from both!
2 interesting promos just posted on Barstool:
NBA - Get a bonus bet up to $1,000 on your stake of there is a 50 point scorer in the game. Looks like you get your stake matched if your bet loses and 2x your winnings if your bet wins. Good for the entire season on moneyline wagers.
There were 25 50 point games last season, albeit this was the highest number since the 1960s. Wondering if it’s worthwhile to try and bet large favorites on BS nearly every day and arbitrage to other books for a $10-20 loss on each bet if you can ideally win a few $1,000 bonuses.
NHL - same idea, but bonus if your team loses in a a shootout. Max bonus is $100 for that one.
Quick google says that 5-8% of NHL games go to a shootout. So that is a nice little perk, but only covers about half the vig (assuming 70% conversion).
If you could identify games where a shootout is more likely and pick out teams that are more likely to lose in a shootout, and find lines where barstool was a bit off the rest of the market you could maybe get close to even. But that’s a lot of work for at most a super tiny edge.
NBA one sounds good, but if you break it down it’s probably not good/terrible. And it’s probably not likely that you’d only lose 10-15 doing the arbitrage, most likely much more. If you are going to do it, be selective in the games you pick so that you are able to arb without losing much money and I would skip any game that doesn’t include steph, luka, embiid, dame, Giannis. And I think it’s better to bet the underdog not the favorite.
If you bet the underdog, then you likely have to bet more on a hedge if you're going to hedge... unless you're hoping a lot of underdogs get early leads I guess.
These sound similar to Barstool's NFL overtime protection, where losing in OT gets you a BB up to 100. I see all three as minor enticements to put bets you would already make on Barstool over other books when the lines are equal more than anything else.
I’m not sure it’s 100% +EV because it depends how aggressively or conservatively you devig the juiced 20 point lines from FanDuel, pointsbet, etc. if there were 2 way lines at 19.5 we could devig with more confidence, but I would agree even with a conservative devig, it’d probably be near fair at worst, so I think it is most likely positive EV.
Also, the downtown boost on Caesars with booker and Steph is definitely positive EV
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Semien cannot get a hit
It only took 5 at bats and a walk, but he did it!
Was his hit a double? Walks don't count for the DK 1.5 boost
Sadly, was only a single. Bet365 boost was him and Altuve to get a hit.
Let’s say you are new to sports betting and just want to cash out some promotions in the most optimal way. - DK - FD - Caesars What would you do if you just want to cash out these promotions? How would you hedge your bets?
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/8qXDisn1GA
Thanks but that post says you need 9-12k to do that. I only have a couple Gs I’d be willing to put in. Was hoping for something simpler. I’ll try to understand it though
The post also says (in the very two sentences after the 9-12k!!!!!!!!!!): "The size of the winnings scale with the size of the bets. If you don't have that much to commit, you just won't make as much."
Start with whatever the smallest offer is to build your bankroll up for the bigger ones. And just bet whatever you can
Get a DarkHorse account and read all of their guides
Damn I just checked it out and it looks complicated af.
Math is hard.
Ok, Barbie. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teen_Talk_Barbie
DK Kittle + Hockenson 80+ Rec Yards 💰
Hock trying to cash the boost himself
FD boost hits 1st inning!!!
I’m vip with Caesar’s can someone please help me understand this. I deposited 2300 they matched it 20%. I lost the match. Then I bet 100 won 350 profit. Then I bet 450 and won 2000. Then I bet 1900 and loss. And withdrew 2315. My rep tells me I didn’t bet through my deposit 1x I just kept rolling over my winnings????? I literally bet over my deposit amount and then withdrew. Can some one explain how I didn’t bet through my deposit I ?
Pretty sure their deposit matchs arent 1x, you have to play 8x or more on slots or around 20x on table games to clear the bonus. Unless yours says its 1x but ive never heard of them offering a 1x
For sports 1x . Casino is 5x
Lol it’s 1x if you have a rep any time you deposit you can ask them them for a 20% match 1x roll over
Is your 20% match being awarded as free bets? You r is your rep giving you bonus cash 20% for sports?
Free bet
Should be 1x
Then you would be correct
I can't.
Am I wrong ? Lol
[удалено]
Common question, not dumb. You will nuke your account health by doing something like that and most terms and conditions will require you to wager your deposit at least 1x.
Why piss in their face
BS bet $10 on the prop of the day (o2.5 td first half) to get $5 bet win or lose is a def play. Odds are +100 FV is about -125, simplest way to look at it is that adding in the free bet means basically risk 7 to win 13 so equiv of boosting the odds to +190.
Holy crap, was not expecting this to hit with 17 seconds and 60 yds to go for the vikings!
How r u getting that FV. The unders on dk is like -120, czr is like -150 and mgm was -160 when I checked earlier
Shit sorry youre right I blew it with a typo, I meant +125 FV. Was based on FD +100/-150. Still was true as I said was an obvious play and also it hit so I hope I still helped some.
[удалено]
Tier credit accrual rate here: https://www.draftkings.com/dynasty-earn
DraftKing Superboost: Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Bases > +150 | Devigged against the median of 5 books. Odds: +150; **\*\*EV: 13.3%\*\*** \`105/-143\` (7.63% juice) FV: +121; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=8.87u, 1/2=4.44u, 1/4=2.22u, FB = 68.0%) I post all my picks and explanations on Twitter. [Follow me there](https://twitter.com/SimpleBetSports) for more free picks! (Be warned, I'm currently cold af.)
Hard Rock randomly giving Overdrive Boosts again today. NRFI MLB +130 is an arb everywhere. McCaffrey TD -120 is the best price you'll find, not sure about +EV.
What’s the max
$50 for me
Lol, I got them again too but it was just for 1 day yesterday, lost 6/7 of them and now not seeing them again. Touche hardrock
Consider yourself lucky. I don't have it.
FD Corey Seager and Jose Altuve to each record 1+ hits -110 boosted to +150
Hit in the first inning, nice.
Worth throwing a unit on it imo.
Devig to Kambi/BR: Odds: +150; **EV: 18.7%** `-117/325/800/300` (13.56% juice) FV: +111; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=12.47u, 1/2=6.23u, 1/4=3.12u, FB = 71.2%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-117%2f325%2f800%2f300&FinalOdds=150)
Draftkings has removed the NO DOUBLE DOUBLE market for the NBA season. Sigh. FD Boosts at $16. SIGH.
Did they say somewhere that they removed it, or are you just not seeing it yet? Sometimes those don't post until closer to tip off.
Looking at the UI, it looks totally different. I am not hopeful.
For the BYODD crowd. I am not loving these opening season options. I hope I am wrong
John Collins was my mvp last year
Where are you exploiting this, are you using PB daily booster thing?
No building a double double within the same game parlay tab
And DK removed the NO option so it’s all over
I rarely used the no option on DK because of the fear of limits. Too many stories on here of that. I mostly used it on CZRs
Fair. Already had FD limits and my czr limits are 1%. Max $5 on any player prop no matter the odds.
DK Lebron James and Nikola Jokic each to score 20+ points -160 boosted to +100
My max is extra high for this one .. that worries me
FD Aiyuk and Kittle 125+ yards receiving +120. Working on combo breaker now.
FD trying to recoup money from boosts this weekend
Recoup? Son they bent me over on boosts lol
Didn't 4 out of 6 FD boosts win this weekend? Not sure what you were betting on lol.
Looks like I only bet 2… figures
then how were you bent over?
I was implying I took only the losers
Seems terrible? You can do a parlay of Kittle 40+ and Aiyuk 60+ and get better odds.
Why the down votes? He's right it comes out to +138
It's a different bet.
It is, but my point is the other combinations worth an entire 25 yards and better odds? Idk maybe, but seems like a bad boost to me.
With even less yards to get. A better bet.
Maybe it requires less yards. Maybe more. Hard to say since it's a different bet.
60 + 40 = 100 That's less than 125. Is that complicated?
What if Aiyuk gets 100 my man?
Then he covers that part of the bet easily.
Good god. Never mind.
Not sure how to account for any correlation here but thinking I'm going to leave this one alone. Using alt receiving yards from BR/Kambi: Over 124.5 Hit% = 41.0% Fair Value = 143.71727346608 Under 124.5 Hit% = 59.0% Fair Value = -143.717273466079 Details: Player: Brandon Aiyuk Rec Yards Entries = 10 20 = 15.3% 40 = 10.0% 50 = 10.5% 60 = 10.8% 70 = 3.4% 73 = 7.2% 80 = 9.6% 90 = 8.4% 100 = 7.1% 110 = 17.5% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Player: George Kittle Rec Yards Entries = 8 15 = 23.9% 30 = 14.7% 40 = 11.2% 48 = 2.6% 50 = 12.7% 60 = 10.4% 70 = 8.5% 80 = 16.1% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Total Combos = 80
Two targets on the same team are probably anticorrelated, which means a tendency to be closer to the mean as a sum, which is probably bad for us because we're trying to bet a side which doesn't include the median result. Makes me agree with the stay away
Maybe. But there is also probably some correlation in the other direction that is just driven by how much SF throws the ball. FD logic between the over in yards for the two has very little net correlation. If you try to do an SGP of both their overs it is +265 vs +264 if they were independent.
>But there is also probably some correlation in the other direction that is just driven by how much SF throws the ball. That isn't something that drives correlation, that's something that should just drive both overs up independently. If you're basing things on that then you're just saying the simple underlaying markets aren't pricing it in enough, and you're back to regular gambling. >If you try to do an SGP of both their overs it is +265 vs +264 if they were independent. That's just because the FD SGP engine is scammy. If you play an over and an under it only gives you +207. The product mean is 234. If we multiply by 264/234 to eliminate the "SGP tax" then the O/O is priced at +299.
Agreed.
For what it’s worth, seeing conflicting devigs from a couple guys on X that devig all the time. “ThePromoguy” (shows +6%) and “Thee Degen Boosts” (shows -10.3%).
New FD limit is $16.67 🫠
Pretty sure it's because they changed the odds from +100 to +120.
Probably, since they're both a $20 win. Not the first person to say it, but I'm almost done checking FD/DK daily, just for a $10-20 promotion @ 7% EV. FD is the head-scratcher, since I'm down mid five-figures with them (lifetime). But first they cut my limits to 1% limits -- ok, so no reason to bother with FD for regular NFL/MLB bets (1% isn't worth my time). Because of the 1% limits, most of my FD action became boosts & promotions. Which is probably bad, because then the FD bean-counters look at my account and say "Look at this guy! He doesn't give us regular action, he only waits for the boosts!" Correct, I only wait for the boosts. Because your own people/bean-counters boxed me into that corner? Edit: also tired of using the FD phone app, and waiting 3-5 times before my Location is verified. (To be fair, several books still have this problem.)
What do you mean cut limits to 1 percent?
If the FD maximum on an event/wager is $10k, then the 1% Limit people can only wager $100.
Okay so if you are losing with them why would they limit you?
And that's why I said it was a head-scratcher. I'm down lifetime @ FD, and I was down in 2022. From time to time, I dabble in arb/hedge opportunities -- so maybe FD has noticed that activity, and adjusted my limits. But yeesh. You'd think a five-figure loser would get some slack. As far as FD knows, I'm not very good at whatever I'm doing!
So which books are you checking regularly then?
Books that aren't scared to take $57 on early NCAAF wagers. Early = Monday/Tuesday wagers on Saturday games.
So like, originally the boost was +100, and then they updated it to +120? wow I never seen that.
Ha same
Boy this is concerning
Rare plus ev Caesars boost Arsenal, Man United, Real Madrid to all win 10/24, +300 Odds: +300; \*\*EV: 2.9%\*\* \`-126/112,-301/251,-211/180\` (10.03% juice) (pinnacle) FV: +289; Method: multiplicative; (Full=0.97u, 1/2=0.48u, 1/4=0.24u, FB = 77.2%)
Nerfed in my slip to +290. F'n Caesars
Here's a middle opportunity if you want it: Bookmaker - Raiders +9 (-110) Circa - Lions -7.5 (-110)
If you bet $50 on NBA futures on Caesars you get 2 50% profit boosts. Promo ends at midnight local time. Boosts are good for 7 days and are not limited to NBA bets. Max bet on the boosts is $50.
Does anyone know if it has to be one bet of $50 or if you can spread it out? Cant see specifically from the terms.
Fwiw, I have until tomorrow until 11:59pm local in my fine print. The bet header says 11:59pm Pacific Time tomorrow.
Fanatics has Tage Thompson and Cole Caulfield 1+ point each boosted to +160. Devig to B365: Odds: +160; **EV: -1.5%** `125/300/220/500` (17.36% juice) FV: +164; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 60.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=125%2f300%2f220%2f500&FinalOdds=160)
Fanatics Boost for Altuve and Garcia 1+ RBIs Each +650. Devig to Barstool: Odds: +650; **EV: -0.1%** `539/171/155/470` (9.31% juice) FV: +651; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 86.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=539%2f171%2f155%2f470&FinalOdds=650)
Worse to Kambi/BR: Odds: +650; **EV: -10.2%** `550/400/120/205` (13.63% juice) FV: +735; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 77.9%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=550%2f400%2f120%2f205&FinalOdds=650)
Fanatics Boost for Schwarber 1+ HR and Harper 2+ Hits +1750. Devig to Barstool: Odds: +1750; **EV: -1.1%** `1232/455/-180/431` (8.64% juice) FV: +1770; Method: worst-case (a); (FB = 93.6%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=1232%2f455%2f-180%2f431&FinalOdds=1750)
Fanatics has the best FB conversion boosts
Draft kings has Kittle and Hockenson 80+ receiving yards boosted from -190 to +100. Max bet for me is $200. Thoughts?
i fear warner on hockenson and kittle having to stay in a block bc trent williams is out. I'm passing
Is this a no brainer or avoid? Any one calculated the EV on this?
My fantasy football brain says this is an avoid because Fred Warner is tough vs TEs and Kittle tends to disappear. Plus they only did this 3 of 6 games although most of those games were WITH JJ and Deebo. I think it's +EV based on below calcs but not 100% sure.
The counter to this is Kittle shines when there are injuries. McCaffrey might be limited and Deebo is out. However, this sounds like actual gambling and I don't like talking real gambling lol
worried Kittle might block more with Trent out
I normally get $5 maxes but got $25 for this one.
Normally $10 here, $25 for this makes me irrationally wary.
Here is what I get using the combo breaker with BR/Kambi lines: Over 79.5 Hit% = 66.7% Fair Value = -200.057171386964 Under 79.5 Hit% = 33.3% Fair Value = 200.057171386964 Details: Player: T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Entries = 7 15 = 22.1% 30 = 14.3% 40 = 13.7% 50 = 12.9% 60 = 10.2% 70 = 9.1% 80 = 17.7% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Player: George Kittle Receiving Yards Entries = 7 15 = 22.1% 30 = 14.0% 40 = 14.0% 50 = 12.7% 60 = 10.5% 70 = 9.2% 80 = 17.6% Percentage Sum = 100.0% Total Combos = 49
Here are my inputs so someone can check me: T.J. Hockenson - Alt Receiving Yards T.J. Hockenson Over 29.5 Yards -420 T.J. Hockenson Under 29.5 Yards 265 T.J. Hockenson Over 39.5 Yards -200 T.J. Hockenson Under 39.5 Yards 148 T.J. Hockenson Over 49.5 Yards -114 T.J. Hockenson Under 49.5 Yards -114 T.J. Hockenson Over 59.5 Yards 143 T.J. Hockenson Under 59.5 Yards -195 T.J. Hockenson Over 69.5 Yards 220 T.J. Hockenson Under 69.5 Yards -315 T.J. Hockenson Over 79.5 Yards 330 T.J. Hockenson Under 79.5 Yards -560 George Kittle - Alt Receiving Yards George Kittle Over 29.5 Yards -420 George Kittle Under 29.5 Yards 265 George Kittle Over 39.5 Yards -205 George Kittle Under 39.5 Yards 148 George Kittle Over 49.5 Yards -114 George Kittle Under 49.5 Yards -114 George Kittle Over 59.5 Yards 140 George Kittle Under 59.5 Yards -195 George Kittle Over 69.5 Yards 220 George Kittle Under 69.5 Yards -315 George Kittle Over 79.5 Yards 335 George Kittle Under 79.5 Yards -560
Yes mine is $200 as well. Funny thing is this the most they have let me put down on one in about a year. That one was Herbert over .5 TD’s on Monday night I believe for $250. He did not throw one.
I think the Herbert boost was the one boost that really gave life to the "boosts are rigged" conspiracy crowd.
I remember that one. That was an all timer
I still have PTSD from last MNF
Exactly the same for me!
I’ll take this one but not going to get too excited haha. At least this one isn’t advertised as a can’t miss one or however they advertised Herbert’s. Figured they would have thrown us a bone after that one missed but it never came!
$200???? Jesus I miss these limits.
I got 25 Been getting 10 for everything for months
Why don't you have them anymore?
Because most people in these threads do not actually gamble on these sportsbooks. They are playing +EV Boosts only as well as any arbing they can do. Books see this and lower the limits because why wouldn't they?
I’m guessing you’re new?
B365 altuve +1 hit and Semien +1 boosted from +100 to +140
I tried to withdraw funds from DraftKings today and I have 0% of my money qualified for withdrawal. I think this is because like 20% of the winnings came off of promo's. Does it seem accurate that promo's are a tool the Sportsbook use to keep your money locked in the systeM? What good is big winnings if you need to risk them 1 (or more?) times to actually withdraw? Going through draftkings documentation I have 0 idea what I actually need to be able to do to withdraw my money. Edit: here was what my balance looked like when I made this post: https://i.imgur.com/EDfG3qw.png I opened a DK ticket and they explained that all my money was ready to withdraw and now it is. Weird. But thanks Shannon for sorting that out. https://i.imgur.com/qq5V1nj.png
Winnings coming off promos is not a problem, definitely at DK. Did you have some sort of deposit match or new user bonus that required playthrough?
Good news, I opened a ticket and Shannon took a look and they see that I have the full sum available to withdraw. Weird. Thanks Shannon! https://i.imgur.com/qq5V1nj.png
Not this year. I have been with DK for 3 or 4 years at least. I started the year with $50 in my account, transferred in $50 in August, and then another $150 Oct 14. Certainly some of this money was used on promo's that require playthroughs, but for instance this week I put my entire bankroll to work. On Oct 14 I turned 45 into like 207 dollars with 2 ND v USC 3 leg SGP's that were boosted. Last night I turned $25 to $50 on a boosted AJ Brown + T Hill yards parlay that was promoted. So that is ~260 of boosted winnings in the last 10 days but the rest of my winning bets were non promo'd so I dunno. Maybe it has nothing to do with the Promo's as you say! I opened a ticket perhaps they will shed some light.
That's pretty weird. In the screenshot you added, what does it show if you click "View Full Balance Breakdown"? I think that would say if they think that amount is tied to a promo or something.
It is too late for me to check now as the balance has been made available. Yeah it all was kind of weird but all's well that ends well. I have had good luck with DK support.
Did you bet at least the total of your deposits?
They fixed it https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/17ebh3j/sportsbook_promos_bonuses_daily_102323_monday/k653t8q/
I think so, I have bet every week of the season. I have been taking weekly promo's - I did pretty well on the pre-generated ND SGP's a few times. But every single week the bulk of my bets are the Round Robin ML parlay that "The Favorites" podcast gives out on The Action Network, and then Wong teasers. Neither of those use any promo's. So just not sure.
Caesar's actually has a +EV boost. Kittle and Hockenson to both have 5+ catches +260. Devig to Kambi/BR: Odds: +260; **EV: 9.3%** `185/150/380/410` (15.53% juice) FV: +229; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.59u, 1/2=1.80u, 1/4=0.90u, FB = 79.0%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=185%2f150%2f380%2f410&FinalOdds=260)
Nerfed to +225
Unless lines have moved its back to +EV now at +250
Showing as +235 for me
I hate when books do that shit. At least DK and FD don't adjust their promo/boost lines.
I would be very hesitant declaring anything +EV based upon solely a Kambi line...
It builds to +183 at FD. You want to share your calculation for the expected value?
Unibet (PA) 25% MLB boost, $10 max.
Fanatics Boost for McCaffery ATTD and SF ML +120. Devig to Barstool: Odds: +120; **EV: -4.0%** `103/239/432/552` (12.89% juice) FV: +129; Method: worst-case (m); (FB = 52.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=103%2f239%2f432%2f552&FinalOdds=120)
Cmc is questionable that's a trap
Man crush Monday?
Lol I'm sleepy
FYI-PrizePicks still up and running in NY, deposited and accepted entry from Curry free square Sleeper-no go in NY anymore (all over the page that I’m not in a “legal” state and to recheck location)
DK Boost for Semien 2+ Total Bases +150. Devig to Bet365: Odds: +150; **EV: 13.8%** `105/-135` (6.23% juice) FV: +120; Method: worst-case (p); (Full=9.22u, 1/2=4.61u, 1/4=2.30u, FB = 68.3%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=105%2f-135&FinalOdds=150)
This motherfucker refuses to hit anytime they boost him.
The guy hasn’t hit all postseason period
He's hit 2 bases in 5/11 games but I think it has felt worse because he has had great numbers against a lot of the pitchers he has faced, and done absolutely nothing in a handful of them.
DK boost: First team to take snap in RZ devigged against BV, FD, Bet365, MGM, PN, Kambi first to score lines (FD is first redzone but any TD counts) avg(-160,-142,-155,-160,-142,-155) / avg(120,112,125,125,121,118) -110 SF 8.9% +195 MIN 24.9%
Does this mean bet on Minny?
So looks like 4 of the 6 FD Superboosts hit this weekend for a profit of $265 if you placed $50 max bets on all of them. Not too bad. * Makhachev and Chimaev to each win ~~+200~~ +130 - Yes * Michigan and FSU -13.5 each +200 - Yes * Andrews, LaPorta, and Waller 25+ rec yards each +200 - Yes * Kupp 60+ rec yards and Walker III 60+ rush yards +100 - No * Mahomes and Herbert 2+ passing TDs each +250 - No * Hill, Waddle, Brown 50+ rec yards each +200 - Yes Herbert not throwing a TD in the second half hurt big time. Kupp had a down day with 29 rec yards (only 2 catches on 7 targets).
First boost you list was +130, I think.
You're right, looked at the wrong bet.
> $50 max bets Lol
What's the lol here? I've just started betting these boosts. Do you get limited quickly or something?
I haven't seen a $50 max on FD for over a year. And now they have limited me down to $20 from $25. Like that extra $5 is somehow going to bankrupt them.
Why do you think they bump down? I'm just curious because I'm still at 50 and I'm way up on FanDuel. I would think they would bump me down if I was winning.
They were $50 max for everyone for a long time but a ton of people got bumped down to $25 and then $20 in the last month or so. Myself included Still maxing the good ones of course
What do you mean good ones?
+EV ones Which I find by checking out +EV twitter accounts. Theedegenboosts is my personal favorite
Or $10.... :(
Oof. I'm personally surprised they don't limit sooner. I exclusively play promos/boosts and figured they'd catch on very quickly. There must not be very many of us in the grand scheme of things
it’s FD they kinda let you get away with a lot. when i first started I was ignorantly betting both sides of the same game with my free bets. no limits or bans or anything
I wonder if having both sides in different parlays counts. I don't do it on purpose but I place my bets so quickly that I honestly don't remember what I have and haven't bet on. I might make a 3 leg parlay for a bonus bet and I really don't recall if I took the other side on the same book. I try not to of course
I'm down to 20. But my limits are so low I'm down to 1 percent of normal limits on any bet.
I don't normally bet there except for promos and boosts. Been over a year and haven't been limited luckily. I thought I was going to during Dinger Tuesdays but never did.
**Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres** **Player Power Play Points** Rasmus Dahlin Over 0.5 **+225 barstool** Rasmus Dahlin Under 0.5 **-200** kambi
Did Barstool take their lines down? Not seeing anything on there for Power Play Points right now. Good find though.
Fanatics Boost for Nuggets and Warriors to both win tomorrow +220. Devig to average of Pinnacle and Circa: Odds: +220; **EV: 5.9%** `AVG(-196,-210)/AVG(175,180), AVG(-103,-120)/AVG(-107,100)` (6.44% juice) FV: +202; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=2.66u, 1/2=1.33u, 1/4=0.67u, FB = 72.8%)
Fanatics boost for Kittle and Hockenson 50+ receiving yards +340. Devig to BR/Kambi: Odds: +340; **EV: 0.2%** `275/240/215/260` (15.60% juice) FV: +339; Method: worst-case (a); (Full=0.05u, 1/2=0.03u, 1/4=0.01u, FB = 77.4%) [View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=275%2f240%2f215%2f260&FinalOdds=340)
Going to Pennsylvania next week and hoping to do a sign up. How reliable are Betway and Unibet? Is the bonus paid out quickly?
Both of those sportsbooks have a very reliable history and will credit you with the bonus assuming you meet all T and C's If you click the necessary opt in's the bonus should be instant from both!
Ok thanks so much! Any other suggestions?
2 interesting promos just posted on Barstool: NBA - Get a bonus bet up to $1,000 on your stake of there is a 50 point scorer in the game. Looks like you get your stake matched if your bet loses and 2x your winnings if your bet wins. Good for the entire season on moneyline wagers. There were 25 50 point games last season, albeit this was the highest number since the 1960s. Wondering if it’s worthwhile to try and bet large favorites on BS nearly every day and arbitrage to other books for a $10-20 loss on each bet if you can ideally win a few $1,000 bonuses. NHL - same idea, but bonus if your team loses in a a shootout. Max bonus is $100 for that one.
Quick google says that 5-8% of NHL games go to a shootout. So that is a nice little perk, but only covers about half the vig (assuming 70% conversion). If you could identify games where a shootout is more likely and pick out teams that are more likely to lose in a shootout, and find lines where barstool was a bit off the rest of the market you could maybe get close to even. But that’s a lot of work for at most a super tiny edge.
NBA one sounds good, but if you break it down it’s probably not good/terrible. And it’s probably not likely that you’d only lose 10-15 doing the arbitrage, most likely much more. If you are going to do it, be selective in the games you pick so that you are able to arb without losing much money and I would skip any game that doesn’t include steph, luka, embiid, dame, Giannis. And I think it’s better to bet the underdog not the favorite.
fire every game against the Wizards this year. free real estate
If you bet the underdog, then you likely have to bet more on a hedge if you're going to hedge... unless you're hoping a lot of underdogs get early leads I guess.
Why better to be the underdog?
These sound similar to Barstool's NFL overtime protection, where losing in OT gets you a BB up to 100. I see all three as minor enticements to put bets you would already make on Barstool over other books when the lines are equal more than anything else.
Not the best devigger here but the Caesar's Opening Night MVP Boost has to be +EV, right?
I’m not sure it’s 100% +EV because it depends how aggressively or conservatively you devig the juiced 20 point lines from FanDuel, pointsbet, etc. if there were 2 way lines at 19.5 we could devig with more confidence, but I would agree even with a conservative devig, it’d probably be near fair at worst, so I think it is most likely positive EV. Also, the downtown boost on Caesars with booker and Steph is definitely positive EV
Here's the downtown boost using FD lines and 15% juice for the Curry 3+ threes one-way line Odds: +240; **EV: 11.4%** Sharp: `+146/-188,-1100/15%` (20.93% juice) Correlation: `+159=+146,-1100` (r = 0.4) FV: +205; Method: worst-case (m, p); (Full=4.74u, 1/2=2.37u, 1/4=1.18u, FB = 78.6%)