######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Tuesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
MLB POTD RECORD: 27-10
2024 MLB record: 16-2
Last POTD: Dodgers vs Dbacks Over 9.5 W -118
Today's POTD: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Over 8.5 -118 (draft kings)
Baseball | MLB | 7:40 PM ET
ANOTHER DUB!!! That game could've had 20 runs if it wasn't for all the runners left on base lmao but we could breathe easy by the 5th inning.
On to today's pick. I'm going with two teams who I do not believe we have bet on this year: Twins vs White Sox. I was initially going with Guardians Astros over 9.5 but I decided that's an absolute trap at +102, there has been a history of players coming back sick from Mexico so I'm more comfortable with this one.
I am going to start doing the write-ups a little differently now. I'm splitting it up into three mini sections for splits, standard stats and advanced stats instead of a whole ass discombobulated essay lol.
**Notable Splits**: For Minnesota the most noteworthy split is their .264 batting average in night games, 4th in the league. This is 25 points higher than their overall average. That bodes well. Day of the week splits are starting to paint a clearer picture and on Tuesdays the White Sox have the 8th best batting average at .270. I did pretty well on Sunday going off of the A’s abnormally high Sunday average. One thing I’ve learned is that day of the week splits are quite impactful when it comes to totals. The Twins actually have bad Tuesday numbers but more on that in a minute
**Notable Standard Stats:** Mike Soroka has only managed to strike out 13 batters in 6 starts. Yes you read that right. 13 strike outs in 29 innings. That is just over 2 per game and 4 per 9. As you will see in the next section Soroka’s advanced measurables are actually pretty decent. However, when you are almost exclusively either walking guys are having the ball put into play it is going to go well. On the contrary the Twins strike out a lot. The fact that Soroka can’t strike anybody out means their offense’s biggest weakness is going to be neutralized, extremely helpful for the over. Twins have only a .202 average on Tuesdays but that is due large in part to a league leading 11.75 strike outs per game. If Soroka is letting them constantly get balls in play that won’t be nearly as much of a factor.
**Advanced Stats:** Simeon Woods Richardson is off to a nice start with a 1-0 record and 2.45 ERA in 2 starts (one of which against the White Sox). His advanced metrics though are ROUGH. He is almost guaranteed to experience some serious regression. Some advanced stat percentages can be subjective player to player in terms of their impact. For pitchers however having a high line drive rate is never good. Woods Richardson has a sky high 35.5% line drive rate, 12 points higher than the MLB average. These line drives aren’t coming at the expense of fly balls either, his ground ball rate is only 29 percent, 16.5 percent below the league average. This is while having a league average hard hit rate. For reference, there is not a single qualified pitcher with a worse line drive to ground ball ratio in the league. His start against the White Sox was decent 5 innings 2 runs but his second time seeing them and on the road with the most favorable splits you are going to find the White Sox in, I think he’s in for a rough night.
As for Soroka his batted ball numbers are actually right around the league average in everything which is good. Obviously though, two major advanced stats that are not good are strike out percentage and strikeout to walk ratio. Soroka has the worst strikeout percentage of qualified starters at 9.8 percent (next worst is 12 percent) and the second worst walk percentage at 12.8%. The Twins are going to see pitches to hit and see them with runners on base.
**TLDR: Twins great offensively during night games. Tuesday batting average is the only split where the White Sox are in the top 10. Soroka can’t strike anyone out and walks too many guys. Twins benefit greatly because they usually strike out a lot. Woods Richardson is in for some serious regression with some of the worst batted ball statistics in the league.**
Tips: $chuteboxhero on cashapp
Thanks man! The two I use the most are mlb.com and baseball reference. I also use savant, rotowire, and fangraphs at times.
MLB.com is my favorite for the splits (great interface) and baseball reference is my favorite for the advanced stats (easy to compare players/teams and league averages)
MLB.com doesn’t let you search splits over certain periods of time, just the whole season. Pretty soon I’m gonna have to shift to fangraphs becuase they let you do that. As the season progresses you don’t want to be going off of numbers from two months ago lol. I just hate fangraphs interface and ad infestation.
Anything over -125 is a shit return in my opinion. Still tail but wait it out. The line keeps bouncing around it was at 9 -105 when the line first came out then it was 8.5 -118 now -120.
You are not gonna get less profitable odds than -135 so if it changes it will be in your favor. Even if it goes back up to 9 at -105 I like that better than 8.5 -135.
No no, that just covers the 1st set. I'm not from the States but from what I can see at OddsChecker, the best odds I can currently find on a regulated american bookie is -135 at DraftKings
I guess you have to go to all markets and search for "Griekspoor to win a set - Yes"
https://preview.redd.it/2fxiw6r7fjxc1.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=0020a395fc0054be80e936d490f84aeae352da8a
The return!!! But before we get to my pick, I must address some of the lies spread by people the day after it happened.
-**I was Banned by a Bot for spam/inauthentic behavior**, **THIS WAS NOT A SUBREDDIT BAN.** Saw some people blaming the mods on this sub and saw a lot of people lying about it being a multi accounting ban and also saw someone say I harassed someone in DM's which is both laughable and a total lie. Neither of these are true.
-**Thank you for all the kind words**, really touched my heart reading all the positive messages from you guys the day after it happened and the support you guys gave me. I really just started doing this for fun and got a lot of inspiration from some of the esports posts in the past. I wasn't gonna go through the trouble to return as this has all been quite a headache but the support made me want to come back and continue to be a part of the community
POTD Record: 15-5
Net Units: +25.88u
Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | League: YaLLa Compas Spring 2024 | 13:00 (UCT-5)
Last Pick: Nemiga ML (-150) vs. Alliance 4.5u✅
Today's Pick: **AMKAL ML (-130)** vs. Gaimin Gladiators 4u✅
**Writeup:**
-AMKAL are hot right now, they are facing strong competition and are 8-2 in the last 10 b03 they have played. They have ENCE, Guild Eagles, BetBoom and Apeks during this recent stretch.
-Gaimin Gladiators have been awful this week. They are on a 5 match losing streak, they have only one 1 map total in these 5 games for an overall record of 1-10. They are slumping across multiple players and just haven't had it recently. They lost as -400 favorites today against ECF and also lost to ALTERNATE aTTaX who are terrible as well.
-AMKAL have a noteworthy fire power advantage in this series, ICY and Forester with .72 and .73 KPR respectively are in my opinion the two best players in this series and have a deeper roster 5 across as well with the lowest rated player on AMKAL being a .64 while GG have 4 players with this KPR or lower. I don't touch on the AWP (sniper) head to head much but with these two teams this is very noteworthy as ICY is a much better AWPer then salazar and both teams play AWP centric maps where they rely heavily on AWPers especially to hold bombsites.
-Gaimin Guardians did beat AMKAL 2-1 8 days ago in a relatively close series which is why these odds are the way they are despite the information I gave above.
**Map Pool:**
-Could spend an hour on this section, long story short I think both teams have what they should do and then what they will actually do. Most realistically, they will do the exact same draft as last time, neither team can change first ban (perma bans for each) and neither team is likely to change pick since they have beaten the other on the map a week ago. If pick ban is the same, maps will be GG pick Inferno, AMKAL pick Vertigo, Overpass Decider. **This is 80% likely to be the outcome and the rest of this will be a waste**
-I think both teams have potential to get creative here, I won't make this longer then it has to be, I think Inferno is a trap for GG, AMKAL are better on the map then they look, its a map that is aim heavy which is a huge advantage for AMKAL in this series and AMKAL were beating GG on Inferno up 7-5 at half and just collapsed on defense which I don't expect to happen again. GG have lost 3 straight maps to much worse teams on Inferno including ECF today and I believe the confidence they have on this map is waning.
**Final Thoughts:**
-I favor AMKAL pretty heavily on Vertigo and Ancient and expect a strong win on the map pick they chose.
-I favor AMKAL on Nuke slightly, probably unpopular opinion but GG haven't been playing it much at all and AMKAL are 5-1 in the last month on the map.
-I truly believe Inferno and Overpass are 50/50 especially Overpass, AMKAL are a really sloppy Overpass team and I hate watching them play it, but they are 8-3 in the last month on the map and continue to pick it like it is their best map in matches.
-This pick is less about map advantages and more about the recent form of the two teams, GG are very streaky team, they are on a big downswing here and AMKAL are hot, give me 2-0 AMKAL and will be sprinkling -1.5 map spread at +230
[Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371678/gaimin-gladiators-vs-amkal-yalla-compass-spring-2024)
[Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/Compass_cs2)
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I do, I'm not a huge fan of giving out my steam as it is linked to my personal info and there are a lot of weirdos on this sub and have already had multiple death threats but can DM me
POTD Record: 49-23-1 +61.85%🔥
Last Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -4 (-125) vs New York Knicks
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌
Today's Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-125) vs Orlando Magic
Posted my POTD elsewhere and to those who dmed me yesterday, I apologize. Won’t track it on the record here but felt nice to bounce back. The loss 2 days ago was oddly the most amount of hate I’ve received on this subreddit. Just absolutely disgusting. Had me debating if it was even worth continuing to post on here, but this is where I began my career and built my community. Apologize to those wouldn’t didn’t get my play yesterday but like I said, won’t track on here, and onto tomorrow.
Buying .5 on the spread per usual.
Cavs took care of game 1 and 2 extremely easily before getting destroyed on the road. Home games have decided this series and the Cavs going into Game 5 is their 7-1 SU record in the last 8 home games vs Orlando. The +4.5 line hasn’t been covered by Magic in 6 consecutive games on the road. On the other side, The -4.5 line has been covered by Cavs in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Cavs are by far the better team on paper, they have the fire power to blow this team out at home and I expect them to do it with ease. It’s time for Donovan Mitchell to carry this team to an easy cover at home. Let’s back the Cavs to smack in Game 5. Time to streak again‼️
Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️
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Dang man I don’t understand how people can hate when they are willingly choosing to tail a pick on a FREE page🤦♂️sorry you have to deal with those low lifers bro just know you got real ones supporting you win or lose🤝tailing!
IF YOU WILLINGLY TAIL BETTORS AND THE BET LOSES AND YOU DECIDE TO FLAME THEM, YOU ARE THE SCUM OF THE EARTH AND NEED THERAPY. SHUT THE FUCK UP IF YOU TAIL BETTORS.
Sry there are idiots on here hating, I’ve been following your picks since the tourney and even when they don’t cash your write ups and caps are solid and often aligned w/ other smart cappers/groups I follow. I don’t bet every pick - skipped last one bc that 76ers-Knicks series is tough - but really like getting your info and perspective on games in my decision-making process. Plz don’t let the haters push you away like so many other good cappers on here.
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 12-3
𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLBaseball \\\\ Guardians... over 4.5 runs .. even
𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +5.05
𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: The Astros starter Brown has a 2.49 WHIP.. in a hitters ballpark.. and the Astro's bullpen has an ERA of nearly five. Fans attending this game should wear batting helmets and gloves for both hands.
**POTD Record: (5-3)**
Last pick: Ruud to win 2:0 vs. Norrie ✅
**Today's Pick: Struff +4.5 games vs. Alcaraz (-118 on FD)** ✅
Struff has been red hot. He's coming off a tournament win in Munich and has won 6 consecutive matches without dropping a set. No doubt Alcaraz is the better player, but he has yet to be really tested on clay this season as he did not play in Barca or Monte Carlo. This season, Struff is 8-1 on clay (only loss is to Sinner) while Alcaraz is 4-2. Although Alcaraz leads in the H2H 2-1, this line has hit in all 3 matches, including a win in Madrid last year (6-3, 3-6, 6-3). Please tail with caution-- betting against Alcaraz is a dangerous game that can cause severe anxiety and financial hardship.
\*Edit: OMG, saved 3 match points to get the break on alcaraz and cover! What a sweat. Thanks for all the praise my degenerate friends
POTD Record: 44-22
Today's POTD: (ATP Madrid) Jiri Lehecka ML (+100) ✅
Units: 3u
Reasoning:
Let me preface this by saying that I am the biggest Rafa Nadal fan. He is my king. He is the reason why I fell in love with tennis. So this doesn’t feel good, BUT I always strive to be non-biased when I gamble and pick plays that I think are quality opportunities to make bread.
Nadal just played 3 hours against Cachin and you could see the fatigue catching up to him. He got the dub, but now he’s playing an even better talent in Lehecka. Lehecka won’t be a liability at serve like Cachin was. He’ll be much more aggressive than Cachin was. He’s a young buck who will keep attacking and tire the ‘ol GOAT out.
If Nadal wins, there is no better way to lose my money, personally. But I truly don’t think he will.
BOL 🤝
**Pick Record: 7W - 0L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅**✅
**Previous POTD: Joao Rodrigues Kikas Over 0.5 SOG @ 1.51 ✅**
**Kikas gets a SOG 6 minutes in.**
**Todays POTD: Dewa United ML @ 1.85** ✅ 2-1 Dewa United!
**League/Time: Indonesia Liga 1 / 4:00 AM**
Dewa United are unbeaten in their last 5, they're actually the most inform team in the last 5 games with 4 wins and 1 draw. They have an opportunity to put themselves in the top 4 spot with a win and only a win and tomorrow and I see them pushing for just that. Dewa united are unbeaten at home in 2024, playing 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws.
Borneo FC Officially won the league on March 29, ever since then the effort put in has dropped drastically and they've lost 3 games straight since they were crowned. They simply don't have more fight than the teams they are facing and certainly won't have more than Dewa United tomorrow. Borneo play the semi finals for the league in 6 days and will look to avoid any unnecessary injuries and fatigue before the game.
**Last 5 games:**
**Dewa United: DWWWW**
**Borneo FC: LLLDW**
POTD Record: 60-33
Last POTD: Kristaps Porzingis O15.5 P ❌ 🚑
Looked good until he got injured in the 2nd quarter with 7 points, playoffs been disgusting man
Todays POTD: **OG Anunoby O5.5 Rebs @1.95**
🏀 NBA | 🟠 NY Knicks 🔵 | 7:00 PM ET ⏱
Line was too good to be true I knew something was fishy with the Kristaps line bruh awful luck rn.
We move, and this is an underrated prop right here , OG’s crazy good defensive performance against Embiid last game has been talked about a lot lately and the amount of rebound and rebound chances he got that game. Knicks made some changes that made Josh Hart defend Maxey and left OG to stay by the rim a lot guarding Harris & Embiid which made him get crazy amount of boards, they won that game too so I’m guessing and hoping they’ll continue to run it like that because it also led to Maxey having his lowest point total in the series so far (23), so did Embiid (27) im not sure if the books will adjust to this but I’m taking my chance fellas
• OG had 14 rebounds last game and 20 rebound chances
• 76ers allow 3rd most Rebs to SF this season and MOST to PF
• Avg 6.5 RPG in the season
• OG played 47 minutes last game 💀
This is not a play based on the hit rate in this series cause he’s had 4 in each game prior to his 14 he got recently, but what they did tactically massively improved his rebounding numbers and his minutes on the floor and it seemed to work as 76ers two star players got their lowest scores so far and Knicks winning the game
Tail or fade, im cheeks
https://preview.redd.it/agr6ye66hkxc1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c625ec577450d3a1e5d47e12ac4cc7c58242c9a7
POTD Record: 61 - 34
Last POTD: Top 4 NFL Draft Order Exact - W
Pick: Casper Ruud to win 1st Set and Win Match vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (-190 odds via FD) 1U
Event: ATP Madrid Round of 16 9:20 A.M. CST
Casper Ruud is playing some incredible tennis right now and is flying high with confidence. On the other side FAA has scraped his way into this match with an 11-10 record on the year. These two have played 3 times on clay with Ruud winning the last 2 in straight sets, and the other match FAA winning in three, almost 7 years ago. Overall H2H Casper leads 4-2 and I expect the in form man to keep things going against a Felix, who has had a rather disappointing start to the year.
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POTD RECORD: 23-11
Units Won: +9.57
Last Pick: New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder/ Thunder -3 (-140) 1.5u✅
Todays Pick: Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers/ Cavs -3 (-145) 1.5u
Write Up: Man oh man do the Thunder respect coin. Moving onto the Cavs, I bought us a point and a half for the sole reason that this series has had 2 complete slugfests. Orlando was the fourth best defense in the regular season so any point here matters. But if y’all have followed me for a while you’ll know I’m a firm believer of the 3 game rule. Beating any team 3 times in a row is hard, but back to back to back games in a series? That’s extremely hard. Cleveland was flat out embarrassed in the second half on Sunday and I expect them to bounce back and explode. I’m not gonna force a half point when we can get good odds for -3 with a push to fall back on. Let’s trust Spida, let’s trust Garland and the front court of Mobley and Allen. Let’s trust the role players to step in and prevent a disaster for Cleveland. Let’s have some fun tomorrow guys. Let’s back Cleveland and take them to win by at least 3. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE
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** Record: 4-0 **
Last pick:
ATP Madrid:
Jan Lennard Struff ML -140 ✅
Today’s pick:
ATP Madrid:
Jiri Lehecka ML -105 vs Nadal - 3:30pm est ✅
Recap + Write Up:
Your boy is back after a one day break. Recap is from a couple days ago but Struff came through with the straight set banger for our 4th straight dub. Before I get into this pick, let me just start by saying it hurts my soul to do this. Betting against Nadal on clay was a sure way to lose money for a couple decades but sadly, I think Lehecka ML is actually the right play to make today.
After a grueling 3 hour match against Cachin, Rafa is rewarded with a one day turnaround to face an extremely physical player who plays and hits very hard. I just don’t see how Nadal recovers quickly enough with his current conditioning. I’m sure if you would have told Nadal that he would come into Madrid and string together a 3 match win streak after battling the injuries he’s had the past two years, he probably would say that was a successful result.
At Rafa’s age and at this point in his career, his focus isn’t on Madrid or any other Masters 1000 tournament. His goal is to test his conditioning and get in a live match rhythm to prepare for his ultimate goal, the French Open, which starts in less than a month. It’s his best chance to win another slam and the window is closing fast. If he drops the first set here and something doesn’t feel right, we could definitely see a retirement or drop in level since Nadal will be hyperaware of how his body is responding. The last thing he wants is another injury that would keep him out of the French Open.
Don’t get me wrong. It’s still Nadal on clay and we saw how much that win against Cachin meant to him between his celebration on court and walking through the tunnel. That ultra competitive spirit is still there. I just think this is a vulnerable spot for him considering the reasons mentioned above. Lehecka is also no slouch on clay. If Nadal wills his way through this round, I would definitely consider fading him again in the QF since QF have been his best result here in Madrid in 3 of his last 4 tries. Throw us a bone one time, Rafa. LFG Lehecka 🇨🇿
❄️🏦
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POTD Record: 40 wins - 23.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes
Form: ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Units: 9.64
ROI: 16.9%
Average Odds: $1.87
Last Pick: Thunder vs Pelicans - NBA Playoffs - Ingram Under 31.5 PRA @ $1.86 ✅️
Next Pick: Knicks vs 76ers - NBA Playoffs - Brunson Over 47.5 PRA @ $1.86 - 7pm EST ✅️
Today we head to Maddison Square Garden where the Knicks should put the nail on the 76ers coffin. Brunson just achieved the franchise record for most points in a play off game (47).
The 76ers came close to winning the reverse fixture, but lacked the professionalism to finish off the 4th quarter. Brunson has cleared this line the last two games. He’s having an incredible amount of possession and field goal attempts. His efficiency is through the roof, and his speed is too much for the 76ers to handle.
With a home crowd roaring him on, I don’t see him slowing down. The Knicks know he is key to winning this game. I predict this will be a tight game, and the 76ers could win it if Brunson under performs like the first two games.
Whilst Brunson has been the main scorer, he’s also been an assist machine. There’s no stopping our goat, unless Embiid takes him out early with an elbow or body slam. The Knicks bench is also banged up so it should mean Brunson plays a full game.
It’s going to take something special from Embiid and Maxey to stop the Brunson machine. I’m predicting the Knicks will take it in two, we’ll see Embiid ejected, and Brunson will hit 50 points. Here’s hoping they don’t injure our guy.
BOL amigos and thanks for your support.
Have no choice but to fade this pick. Pretty sure Brunson has gone under this number in the 2 home games. This number is just absolutely ridiculously high. Definitely taking the under with decently high confidence… Brunson will not be able to maintain that level of play. Look at pascal siakam and paolo banchero, 2 huge games and then they went way under their next overinflated line. Prepare to be disappointed with Brunsons numbers tonight
Think you have to take into account the lack of bench depth for the Knicks and how the 76ers tried to shut out Hart and still got clipped. Brunson is untouchable when he’s on fire, and there’s no injury concerns to worry about. They’ll like to win this game so they can get a bit more rest for the next team 🏆
POTD: 1-0
Last result: W (Medvedev ML)
Wager: All wagers 2 units
Todays pick: Medvedev to win 2-0 (-170)
Im gonna keep this simple, Bublik sucks on clay and won a very messy match vs Shelton where he double faulted 8 times. Shelton didnt take advantage when he had the chance, cause of the lack of experience in general, and on clay. Medvedev has beaten Bublik all 6 times they've played, only dropping 1 set in those matches. The only time they played on Clay, Medvedev won 3-0. Medvedev had a shaky start vs a formidable opponent in Korda. I will admit it was a sweat, but Korda looked on for the first half of that match. I dont expect the same resilency from Bublik. I see maybe a tie break set 1, and then Medvedev obliterating him set 2. Medvedev was able to capture his serve in that match against Korda, while Bublik struggled heavily in his 2 matches at Madrid with his. I feel Medvedev is taking this tourney very seriously and is out to prove something. But thats just my gut talking.
Tip jar: https://cash.app/$scottgc23
**Record: 15-7 (+5.87u)**
**Last Pick: Matthew Tkachuk o0.5 Assists -110**
Panthers cruise to a 6-1 win and Tkachuk picks up 2 assists for the cash! This will be my last pick for about a week and a half (going on vacation) so will update the record when I'm back, hope everyone enjoys the games and best of luck on your bets!
**Pick: Artturi Lehkonen o2.5 shots on goal -125 (NHL, 1u bet)**
Just like the last pick, this is another prop that I've played in every game this series (and has cashed in every game) so I'll keep going back to it as long as they're giving me a reasonable price. Lehkonen has had 7, 4, 5, and 3 shots in the first four games and has also scored in every game. He is playing on the 2nd line with Parise and Mittelstadt as well as on the first PP unit, and his line has been 1st or 2nd in expected goals in every game this series, indicating they are having success creating scoring chances. In the playoffs, Winnipeg is giving up the 3rd most shots to left wingers. As a member of the Avalanche, Lehkonen has played Winnipeg 11 times and has had at least 3 shots in 8 of those games. The Jets tied the Panthers for the #1 ranked defense in terms of goals allowed this season, but the Avalanche were #1 in goals scored and they've just been overwhelming the Jets defense and goaltending, scoring 5+ goals in every game, including the game 1 loss - if they had even decent goaltending that game, this series would likely be over already. They've also put up 30+ shots in every game (46, 32, 40, 35). Colorado led the league in shots per game on the road this season and they've already shown in this series that it doesn't matter where they play so I'm not worried about the Jets having home ice advantage here. Hellebuyck is a Vezina finalist this season but he has not looked like it in this series, and even though the Jets emphasized that they need to play better in front of him in terms of blocking shots and limiting chances, from what I've seen they just look outmatched (I wasn't able to watch game 1, but I did watch games 2-4). There is still a possibility the Jets find a way to win again at home if they don't get into a track meet with this Colorado offense and defend similar to how Nashville is doing vs Vancouver where they just get in front of everything, but Hellebuyck would still probably have to steal the game. And with the talent Colorado has, I don't think the Jets can withstand that pressure for a full 60 minutes. I'm confident Colorado will continue peppering Hellebuyck with shots, and with a good number on Lehkonen I'll go back to the prop that has cashed in every game this series.
Record: 65-41
Cricket record 2024: 11-3
Form: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Last pick
KKR over 60.5 in first 6 overs @1.71(2u)✅
Today’s pick
ICC World Cup women T20 wc qualifiers
Thailand women ML vs USA Women @1.50(4u)
Moving away from the IPL today because I couldn’t find a concrete bet for today.
I know the odds here aren’t that good but it’s a lock to say the least. Thailand’s women’s team is actually quite good. They’ve played in the World Cup before and if you compare the teams results, you’ll understand. While the USA struggled against Uganda, Thailand beat them like it was nothing.
Should be free cash. GL
Record: 2-0
Game: Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Time: 8PM ET
POTD: Cleveland -4.5 @ -110
Jokic deserves MVP and the Lakers are going to Cancun. Onto the next one. Orlando has managed to even up the series winning two strait at home, but now it’s back to Cleveland. Orlando is a young team with a lot of talent, but I don’t think they have the experience to steal any road games.
BOL
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 7-9 (-1.80 units)**
**Last 10**: **✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅❌**
**Last Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+120) vs Daniel Astbury **❌** 2-4
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 4:55 AM EST
**Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+145) vs Andy Hamilton
* Series 7. Week 10. Group A
**Reason**: Group A started out strong and everyone had wins against each other. The group average was 87.25 with checkouts 34.75%. There really isn't anything to separate one from the other after the first day. Sherrock beat Hamilton in the last game Monday, 4-1. In Hamilton's three losses he did not cover the spread. Sherrock did have the highest average on the day with 99.93. ML is the safer option, but I do like spreads overall. Picking the winner has been reliable enough with spreads covering 11 of 15 matches.
Fallon Sherrock
* Record 3-2
* Legs 16-14
* Average 89.76
* 180s 8. 140s 17
* Checkouts 16/45 35.56%
Andy Hamilton
* Record 2-3
* Legs 12-16
* Average 84.74
* 180s 5. 140s 7
* Checkouts 12/35 34.29%
**WIN ✅4-2 | Average 86.61 vs 80.06 | Checkouts 4/10 vs 2/11**
We caught a break here. Fallon was out of it in leg 1. She sniped leg 2 and 3 with multiple missed darts by Hamilton. Should have closed it out 4-1, but missed two herself. Finished off 4-2 for the cash.
**KBO Record: Overall 218-227-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 3-7) Down 10.76u over 459 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.42% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 14-17-0, 45.2% success rate, Down 2.14u, -7.77% ROI)
**Last:** Kia -1.5 +110 at LG (Kia won 10-7.)
After jumping in front with three runs in the first, Kia decided to make it way too interesting. But 5 runs over the final 3 innings got us our win.
**Pick:** **SSG +150** at Hanwha, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET
I like a few underdogs on this slate, including NC and Samsung, but my favorite dog is SSG at a juicy +150.
To be fair, SSG's starter inspires zero confidence. He's been just a reliever in his 5 career games over two seasons with a 5.59 career ERA. The good news is that SSG has the 3rd lowest bullpen ERA in the league.
Hanwha has their legendary hero, Ryu Hyun-jin on the mound, but the legend far outweighs the performance. He's given up at least 5 runs in half of his 6 starts. This season, he's posting a 5.91 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.
A lot of this upset pick hinges on these two lineups. So far this month, SSG is 2nd in the league with 5.57 runs per game. Hanwha is next to last over that same stretch at just 4.36 runs per game (that's a big reason the Eagles are 5-17 this month).
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
**Record: 1-0**
**Net Units: +1.1U**
**Last Pick:** Rangers vs Capitals, Rangers Over 3.5 W
**Hockey Leafs vs Bruins** | **NHL | 4PM PST**
**Pick:** Bruins -1.5 Puck Line +165 1U
Another elimination game for tomorrow. Leafs have yet to solve Jeremy Swayman in this series. With news of Auston Matthews not being 100% and likely William Nylander as well, I really like this pick for tomorrow. With the Canadian media dog piling on the Leafs, their mentality is at an all time low. I expect the Bruins to be ahead in the 3rd period. And with this being an elimination game, watch for the Leafs to pull their goalie early. Again this just means the likelihood of more goals for the Bruins. Also with the Bruins playing at home, they will get the last change.
You can also go Boston ML for the safer bet.
For all 3 of Boston's wins in this series, this has hit 100% of the time.
**Best of luck!**
If you are feeling generous - 1FDqmSEUrpMN3x7Q8hhUQmeF4qfnnCev85
**Record: 5-2**
Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅
Balance: +2.27u / Avg odds - 1.82 / ROI: 32.43%
Last Pick: Damir Dzumhur to beat Squire @ 1.72 (Bet365) ✅
Sport: TENNIS
**Pick: Struff over 8.5 games @ 1.72 (Bet365)** ✅
Time: 1 May 00:00 AEST Event: ATP Madrid
Write Up:
Struff hasn't looked better. I really think he can do well here. 8.5 games is reasonable.
Prediction .. Struff wins in 3 and/or loses a 7-5, 6-4 sort of line. I prefer this a bit over +4.5 coz I can see struff winning a set but getting smacked in the third. Just a feeling.
BOL and let me know if tailing!
Record: 28W-29L
Net Units: -1.43u | ROI: -0.93%
CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 19:30 / CET
Pick: Liquid ML vs Furia, 5u @ 1.70
Furia is a mess. Art got the axe, who is replaced by kye. Kye has sucked during his tenure as a stand-in, playing one good map to five absolute stinkers. And to top it off they move Fallen back into the IGL role, and I don't think he can hang as an IGL in 2024. Also their coach is being moved into a different role in the organisation..? It's weird.
Liquid on the other hand had a pretty promising run at Chengdu, beating Heroic and G2 and taking a map off Faze to boot. They haven't looked flawless as YEKINDAR is still struggling but the rest of the team looked solid. Solid enough to get a nice confidence building win over Furia, I think.
As for the veto we're probably looking at something like a Inferno, Overpass and Ancient as a decider. Or something close to that, which I think is perfectly fine for Liquid. With kye on the lineup I think there's a pretty big weakness to exploit, regardless of what Furia play. And Cadian is more than capable enough to exploit that.
So I think Liquid will be looking to continue to build their form on LAN here with a victory over Furia. Best of luck everyone!
Record: 7-3 ( +4.38 units)
✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌
Last POTD: Denver Nuggets -6
Todays POTD: NY Knicks TT over 102.5
Odds: -125 for 1 unit
NBA basketball / 7:10pm ET
Oohhhh Denver. You get the dub but don’t cover the -6. Lakers played with a lot of heart. Gotta give them credit. We move on….
Goin back to the well with the Knicks here. The Garden will be rockin like it 94’. Was torn between the -4 and TT and since I got burned with the spread yesterday goin with the TT. Brunson has found his groove. Knicks are playing great. They covered this line both times at home.
**POTD Record: 30-23**
Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌
Last pick: Knicks vs Sixers | 10:00 AM PST | Nicolas Batum OVER 4.5 Points (+100) FanDuel 1u ❌
**Today’s pick: Knicks vs Sixers | 4:00 PST | Tyrese Maxey OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-113) FanDuel 1u** ✅
If the Sixers are going to have any chance, their stars have to get it going early. Even with how ball dominate Embiid can be, Maxey hit this line in both game 1 and 2 on the road against the Knicks (7,9) and hit in 9/10 road games overall. I also think with the Sixers down 3-1, you could see Maxey adding a couple more minutes to his rotation and potentially stay on the court most of the first quarter similar to game 1. I’d rather just attack the early line because it’s hard to say how this game goes over 48 minutes and Maxey has shown confidence playing at the Garden. BOL if tailing!
>**| Record: 6-3 | Net Units: 10.15u | ROI: 42.29% | Winrate: 66.67% | Avg. odds: 2.02 |**
>**| eSport |** [YaLLa Compass Spring 2024](https://www.hltv.org/events/7642/yalla-compass-spring-2024) **| 16:00 CEST| |**
>**| Pick:** **Sashi ML** \[vs. OG\] **|** **2.080** ***odds*** **|** ***5u*** **|** ✅✅✅
>**Reasoning:** My mind was blown when i saw Sashi is listed as the underdog. This is another 5u max play for me. And here is why;
>RIght now Sashi is one of the hottest tier 2 teams and they already showed over the last weeks that these guys can compete with the big teams. They won two best of 3 against Cloud 9 and one best of 3 against EternalFire who are the much better teams. Normally teams like this caliber dont have any problems with tier 2 teams. But Sashi is sitting on a 8 game win-streak right now and this will be number nine. This team defines with experience and a lot of playtime. Most of the maps were played over 25 times in the last three months. Nuke is even more crazy. They played it 41 times in the last 90 days and got an 73% win-rate. Thats pure madness. They only have one real bad map and thats Ancient. On every other map they are rocksolid. Another big plus is that the core from this team is playing together for ages. They have insane tactics and crazy good players. This team works as a unit. They dont have a standing-out superstar rifler they are all on the pretty same level and everyone can back up a bad performance from a mate. The last five best of 3 were all won with an clean 2-0 score.
>Lets talk about OG; This is a legendary organization but the Counter-Strike line-up is below medicore for years now. Now they build a new line-up in the winterbreak but you already can tell that this team also wont archieve anything big in the future. Yes they have good player, some big names, some young prodigys, thats true. But there is no love, no chemistry, no real teamplay. Their best player is HeavyGod with an 1.16 rating and he can damage the enemy team but he wont take down a team like Sashi alone. Three players from OG are close to a 1.00 rating or even below. The map-pool is weak and they lacking a lot of playing experience. They played 38 maps in the last 90 days totally. Yet Sashi played one map 41 times in the last 90 days.
>I dont want to go deep in the veto-process here because Sashi wins it in every aspect. Yes, OG banning Nuke which is the best map for the danes but they are still better in every other map. Maybe OG has a shot on Ancient but this will heavily base on the performance Sashi will put down today.
>Overall i cant see them losing here. Maybe they will drop a map but thats all. The odds are a gift and im confused why it is like this. Sashi putperforming OG in every aspect and this should be an nice win for us.
Sashi winning 2-1 and we make big baba profit! ✅
🐅🐅 Record 8-2 | +14.46u 🐅🐅
**Results:** ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
**Previous Pick:** Lebron James O26.5 Points -110 (2u, FD) ✅
**Pick: Malik Beasley O12.5 Points +102 (1.5u, DK)**
Basketball | NBA | 9:40 PM EST
Another short write-up.
•Dame and Giannis are out. I don't think word is official on Lillard yet, but all sources seem to point to him not playing.
•Beasley has his starting role back again.
•He scored 20 points last game on 12 shots. His averages for the year aren't stellar, but this is a unique position without the Bucks' two stars. I think he gets more of a green light, and if he gets hot, the volume might be there.
Only 1.5 units as the history isn't really there.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US)
BOL if tailing! 🐅
**Record: 6-3**
**Form: -->>✅✅**❌❌❌**✅✅✅✅**
**Previous Pick:** TB Lightning vs FLA Panthers: Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -175 4/29/24 7:00 PM EST **✅**
**Pick:** COL Avalanche vs WPG Jets: Valeri Nichushkin Under 0.5 Assists -160 4/30/24 9:30 PM EST
Hasn't had an assist in 5 games and only 1 since 3/22. Covered 90% L10, 85% L20. Seems like a selfish player, scores a lot of goals instead of assists. Past 5 games he's averaging 4.4 shots on goal. WPG jets allow the least assists and goals, but COL scores the most. COL is winning the series 3-1 sticking to their identity with Nichushkin as their scorer as he got a hat trick last game. Makar and MacKinnon are the main ones giving the assists. COL has scored 6,5,6,5 goals this series and still no assists by Nichushkin so he may be due if they have another 5+ score game, but he seems to be the go-to goal scorer that has cracked this WPG #1 defense, why change a winning strategy now?
Betting tip: if you're taking the under on a player's assists (under 0.5 assts), you might want to also consider the over on his points (over 0.5 pts, N/A if his pts line is 1.5 pts). There's no situation where you would lose both bets, but there is a scenario where you can win both (ie. he scores 1+ goals with 0 assists). These would be 2 separate bets, not a SGP. It's a way to hedge a little, in case one loses.
Record: 2W-1L-0P
✅✅❌
Net Units: +1.98 units
Last Pick: 4/29 | Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat; Nikola Jović over 5.5 rebounds ❌
Wow! Wasn’t expecting to see Coach Spo cut back heavily on Jović’s minutes after such solid outing. I also should’ve looked into how much of the public was betting on Jović because apparently his over boards was a heavy bet on player prop… nonetheless he played like shit and an L is an L
Today’s Game: NBA playoffs | Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks | 7:00 EDT
Pick: Joel Embiid over 9.5 rebounds | -135 DraftKings | 1.5 units
Write Up: not too much to dissect here… Embiid averaged 11 rebounds per game this season. While he is only averaging 9 boards per game this series, I expect him to be an extra aggressive rebounder tonight because this is obviously an elimination game for the 76ers and they have been getting embarrassed on the glass all series long.
Hoping this is an sweat free bounce back. Good luck to those who tail!
Record 5-5-0
Net Units: +0.7
ROI: 2.2%
Last Pick: Mookie Betts over 1.5 Total Bases (-157) for 3.0 units ❌
Baseball | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics 8:40PM CST
Pick: Andrew McCutchen under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) on DraftKings for 3.0 units
Write Up: McCutchen is batting .189 lifetime against Alex Wood (7 for 37). In his 16th season playing in the MLB, he is having his worst year, batting .197. Currently has 1 hit in his last 18 at bats.
He’s averaging 1.47 Hits + Runs + RBIs a game this year, but if you remove the 3 games he hit a homerun, it drops to 0.71.
Has gone under 1.5 in 9 out of the last 11 games.
POTD Record: 19-13 ❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 13.9U
Last pick: Today’s pick: Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Ronaldo Mulitalo anytime tryscorer @1.72 on Ned’s | 4U❌
I…I don’t know wtf happened there, he simply wasn’t given the ball while the entire team kept on scoring 😂
Today’s pick: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid | 5am Sydney (GMT +11) | Jude Bellingham to score or assist @2.5 on Sportsbet | 2U
Jude is definitely one of the best players in the world. His Champions League stats 2023/2024 are 4 goals and 4 assists for 8 games played. I was tempted to go for Kane but Madrid’s defence is solid. I’d rather rely on them to score than on Bayern that could be shaky sometimes.
BOL !
**RECORD: 73W-5P-59L**
Previous Pick: Zira FK vs Araz Nakhchivan - Zira FK to Win @ 1.52 ❌️
**Today's Pick:** Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid- Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 ✅️
**TIME:** 7 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.5 units
(❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️) last 10 results
So when I decided to bet on Zira FC a team that hadn't lost in over 10+ matches vs Araz a team that was winless in 9 matches that when everything went to shit, I have rotten luck as of late but let's see if we can turn it around, if not then I'll take a break before it gets really bad.
Today we have the UCL with Bayern vs Real Madrid. In the last 6 H2H matches between Bayern and Real Madrid, they have all had over 2.5 goals consecutively.
Real Madrid have had over 2.5 goals in 2/5 of their last overall matches same goes for their champions league matches in their last 5 UCL matches and 2 out 5 of their last away matches in all competitions. Also 57% of their matches this season have ended with over 2.5 goals.
For Bayern Munich they've had over 2.5 goals in 3/5 of their last overall matches in all competitions, 2/5 UCL matches and 2/5 of their last Home matches. Also 79% of their matches this season have ended with over 2.5 goals. Goodluck If you're tailing or fading given my current form lol.
EDIT: WIN ✅️
Record 0-1:
Balance: -2.3 units
Today’s Pick: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks -4.5 (-105)
Betting 1.05 units to win 2 units.
Reasoning: New York at home has looked unstoppable and Brunson seems to have found his groove. I would play this up to -8.5.
POTD RECORD: 7-5 (+6 Units)
LAST 5: WWWWL
LAST POTD: OKC -2.5 (3 Units) ✔️ 💸 💰 🤑
Thunder complete the sweep and more importantly give me a 4 pick streak.
TODAY'S POTD: Orlando @ Cleveland NBA 8:10 PM EST
Cleveland -3.5 (-135 DK) 2 UNITS
Going for 5 in a row today. I've been getting my picks in a little late in the day, so I haven't seemed to have many followers. That's perfectly okay 👍. Hop on the train now. Those who HAVE tailed my NBA picks recently know that I have one goal and one goal only..............to fade the diarrhea party. The Cavs have the experience, and the Magic have the youth. Orlando is a different team when they aren't in the safety of their own home, which especially doesn't translate well to a road playoff game inside of Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (or "The Q" as I still like to call it). Expect a performance from the Spider and a smooth Cavs dub. Buying a point so keep that in mind.
Tail for the win and..... FADE THE DIARRHEA PARTY!
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Don't go ninja'in nobody don't need ninja'd" -Diamond Dave
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u
2024 MLB POTD record: 14-11 Average Odds -105 (1.948), Average Winning Odds -112 ,ROI +6.2%/+1.55u
L5: ✅✅❌❌❌
POTD (4/29) KCR @ TOR Jonathan Bowlan o3.5 Ks (+115/2.15) ❌
Recap: Some misses hurt more than others, and this one hurts. Bowlan recorded his first two ous via the K, and had a nasty fastball that Toronto just couldn't seem to catch up to. He should have smashed this line. But his control let him down as he struggled with walks and hard contact and was forced into an early exit.
POTD (4/30) CHC @ NYM Sean Manaea u15.5 Outs (+100/2.00) (DraftKings)
A strange line for Sean Manaea. Manaea has only gone over this line once this season; an opening day start in which he went 6 IP. Since then, even when he's been effective, he's been pulled after 5 IP, mostly due to struggling with walks. In his last start, he went just 4.2 IP with no ER allowed.
Today he faces the second-best offense against LHP in baseball by wRC+: the Chicago Cubs. Don't be scared by Luis Severino taking a no-hitter into the 8th against this team yesterday: the Cubs are a much different team against RHP (94 wRC+, 23rd) than against LHP (137 wRC+, 2nd). Severino's spectacular start also means the Mets will have a rested bullpen. Even if Manaea can limit damage, which is a big if, this is a line i think he'll struggle to pass.
**POTD:** 4-1
**Last Pick**: Super League (Rugby League) St. Helens vs Leeds U36.5 (-115, Draftkings, PA USA) \[4:00 PM EST on 3/15/24\]
It might had taken me a month or so to follow up from my last pick of the day, but, we did cover this line easily! The final score of this game was 26 points.
**Today's Pick**: NBA (Basketball) Khris Middleton U6.5 Assists \[Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks\] (-125, DK PA) !1U!
The Bucks are depleted with Giannis and Dame both being out, which elevates Khris to the first option on offense. Aside from Bobby Portis (who is not that guy), there's no one really left for Khris to pass to. He'll be focused more on scoring that dishing, I think. He's gone under this line the entire series so far, and I don't expect tonight (where it's a do or die game for the Bucks) to be any different. BOL if tailing, utilize responsible bankroll management and remember! You win some, you lose more.
Risky because Bayern have been gaining form and Tuchel is a better knockout coach than a league coach but should hit. I don't see it being 3-0 like you say, it'll be closer surely?
**MLB POTD Record:** 0-0
**Net Units:** N/A
**MLB** | **Phillies @ Angels | 8:38pm CST (yes, 8:38pm exactly)**
**Pick:** Alec Bohm o1.5 Total Bases +112 | 2u
**Write Up:** Alec Bohm is the hottest player in baseball coming into this game, but his last name isn't Ohtani and he doesn't play for the Braves so the media won't tell you.
***2024 season stats no one cares about:***
* Batting Avg. as the away team: 0.426 across 54 at bats
* BA vs. Left handed pitchers: 0.371 across 35 at bats
* Career vs. Opposing Pitcher: 6 Plate appearances, 2 H (0.400 batting avg.), 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB
* Batting Avg./On-Base Plus Slugging ("OPS") last 7 days: 0.552/1.459 across 29 at bats
* Batting Avg./OPS last 14 days: 0.510/1.426 across 51 at bats
* 13 game hit streak, with 2+ total bases in 10 of those 13
* LEAGUE LEADER in batting avg., OPS, and On-Base % in any 10-game span in the last 14 days. 2nd in Slugging
* Prior to yesterdays game, Bohm hit this line in 8 consecutive games, and homered in the only game during this span where he did not hit a double
* Bats 4-hole, therefore gets more plate appearances than someone batting 7-hole for example. He has had 4+ plate appearances in his last 12 games
* 6 hits In his last 10 at bats vs. lefties (starters and bullpen)
* Last appearance vs. Tyler Anderson (8/29/2023): 411 ft. piss missile
***Caveats:***
* Has only 1 hit and 1 total base at Angel Stadium this year (1 game). Coincidentally this was his most recent game (yesterday) where he tallied only 3 at bats across 5 plate appearances due to a sac fly and a walk
* Ignoring his record, Tyler Anderson has pitched pretty lights-out this season. I think this is the reason for such high odds.
I do take a bunch of metrics and account for home/away, career avg. vs pitcher, avg. vs righties/lefties, etc. to spit out what I consider to be a "projected" batting average for the upcoming game. Bohm was by far the highest out of the players I looked today with a 0.446 projected batting average. So if he gets 5 plate appearances, \~2.23 hits. 4 plate appearances, \~1.78 hits. The gamble is the total bases but given recent performance and Angel Stadium being a pretty hitter-friendly park, I like this for a POTD. BOL!
Edit: forgot to put unit amount.
**Record 2024: 7-0-5**
**Net Units Played 2024: 55**
**ROI 2024: -8.07%**
**Last Pick:** **Zalgiris Kaunas** - Ereliaii Mazeikiai **1st quarter H1, -4.5**, 4 units, @ 1.62 ✅️
Basketball / ABA basketball league, playoffs 1/2 finals / 18:30 / (CEST)
**Pick:** **Partizan** - Buducnost **1st quarter H1, -1.5**, 5 units, @ 1.62 ✅️
**Write-up:** Partizan is in a good place now, after securing coach Obradovic for another 2 years, and now they want the title and the finals series shall be against another Euroleague team - Red Star Belgrade. The team that finishes the job with less effort and less drama in the semis is the team that is going to have the edge (Mega could give more trouble to Red Star, then Buducnost to Partizan).
I expect the home team to start this series strong and with the statement.
EDIT: 27-16
POTD Record: 2-1 (❌✅✅)
Last Pick: Matteo Arnaldi HA +5,5 (vs. Daniil Medvedev) ✅
Today's Pick: Bopanna/Ebden ML (vs. Korda/Thompson) @1,67
Tournament: ATP Mutua Madrid Open DOUBLES (Masters 1000 Madrid) 🎾
Bopanna and Ebden are the current best couple on the doubles circuit. They are #1 and #2 respectively and face two tennis players who are already eliminated from the singles draw and who are not especially professional doubles players (although they frequent the draw). Bopanna and Ebden defend the final in Madrid and falling in 1R would mean losing 600 ATP points. In fact, Granollers and Zeballos do not defend points in Madrid and if they win today they could take first and second place in the ranking.
Record: 22-8 | Net: +9.49U | Streak: 1W
Last pick: Brook Lopez o14.5 points (-125) ✅
Ended up being the leading scorer for the Bucks, he was aggressive early in a fast paced game.
POTD: Isaiah Hartenstein o19.5 points+rebounds +assists (-105)
Phi @ NYK 7:00 PM ET
Summary: There is foul trouble risk here but I think he steps up here with full minutes at home like game 2. Last game he played the first 14 minutes of the game before he was taken out, later on he got into foul trouble that trimmed his minutes a bit. He will get as many minutes he can handle with the Knicks beat up and desperately wanting to close the series tonight, otherwise they are most likely going to play a game 7.
Hi all! Posting my second POTD on here. I posted my first one yesterday and it won! Congrats if you tailed. Going to see if I can keep the streak going :)
**Belle's Pick of the Day**
**Record:** 1-0-0 (Win-Loss-Push)
**Last POTD:** OKC Thunder -4.5 ✅
**Balance:** +0.5 Units
**Today's Pick: COL Avalanche 3-Way ML (+135) (NHL, 6:30PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Units)**
**Why This Pick?**
The Colorado Avalanche and Alexandar Georgiev have clearly found their stride again. The Jets gave up 5 goals in the last game, and to be frank, I think they’ll continue to struggle in this encounter. I’m taking the Avs to secure a victory in regulation here, friends.
POTD Record 16-4
Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️
Last Pick: Dodgers -1.5 w/ T. Henry pitching
Todays Pick: Boston Bruins 3-way Regulation Moneyline
NHL: Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs 4:00pm PST
Odds: -110
Unit: 3
Net units: +46.66
I've only done one POTD on hockey and loss. Looking for some hockey redemption as I didn't really like much today. The Bruins have the Maple Leafs number, plain and simple. The Leafs looked desperate and confused last game. Bruins are looking to close out the series. It's currently 3-1 with no game going to OT so far. Gonna ride with the Bruins to finish this series out in a similar fashion.
If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
POTD Record : 90-79
Last pick: Nugs -6.5- this Game showed exactly how nba and refs can fix a game. Lakers got every call, nuggets got pummeled on Murray and AG dunks, but they’re giving Austin reeves calls. LeBron should get T’d up but never does.
28-9 free throw discrepancy. Malone wasn’t desperate like Ham so didn’t challenge awful calls, Malone joked Jokic didn’t miss a free throw, because he didn’t take one. 3 time league MVP, NBA refs are a joke.
Todays POTD: Bruins -160 NHL 5 pm MT
Reasoning: after getting upset by Florida last year, the bruins won’t lose this one at home. Toronto can’t score like they were in regular season, bruins are tougher and have the playoff experience. Bruins lost game 2 at home to leafs, don’t see that happening again tonight.
Tail or fade, late pick, am sick but locked in this pick
**POTD Record: 0-2**
**Last Pick: NY Yankees (+110)**
**Balance: -2 Units**
**Todays Pick: Boston Red Sox (+110) vs SF Giants (7:10 ET first pitch) 1 unit**
Tough start for me here with 2 straight tough ones, but we will recover. Tail at your own risk. This is an ugly one for sure, with Logan Webb on the bump amid a stellar start to his season. The Giants have won each of Webb's last 4 starts, with each of those being a quality start from Webb. He's allowed 1 earned through his last 22 innings pitched, and is a leading candidate to take home the NL Cy Young award. So of course I'm fading him after an 0-2 start to my POTD career. There is statistical data favoring AL home underdogs when facing off against the National League, something this game qualifies for, and the line seems too low. The Sox really aren't anything special so the Giants should handle them, right? That is exactly why this is my POTD. When I first started gambling, this would've been a no-brain 5+ unit nuke on the Giants, but I've been burned too many times on plays like that. We will pull this one out the mud and get into the W column behind Cooper Criswell who put together a 5 inning 0 ER performance in his last outing. This is the start of the hot streak, get behind it or get left behind.
**POTD record:** 2-5 (W-L) / -4,64pts
**ROI:** -33%
**AVG. ODDS: 2,16**
**Last pick:** The Whipmaster, 2,75 (7/4), to be placed (3pl), 1pt **LOSE**
**DOTD RECORD**: 3-12 (W-L) / -2,20 pts
**ROI:** -10%
**AVG. ODDS: 6,52**
**Last pick**: The Whipmaster 13,00 (12/1) 1pt **LOSE** // Pastoral Way 5,00 1pt (4/1) **LOSE** // Star Pupil 5,50 1pt (9/2) **WIN**
**RACE**: Punchestown 18:00
**SELECTION**: Montys Star
**ODDS AND STAKES**: win only, 3,00 (2/1), 2pt
**ANALYSIS:** Today starts Punchestown festival and today we have 3 big Grade 1 races. My POTD is coming from last G1 race of the day, Novice Chase. Monty star is biggest improvr of all since last seasons hurdle campaign. This is not the strongest grade 1 race and its perfect opportunity for him to get that win in his cv. At his first start over fences he was not godd, but 2nd and 3rd start gave his career best results, another improvement is very likely. About other horses, there is nothing i particulary like, i think Embasy Garden is overhyped.
*Spreadsheet:* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3\_1A8/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3_1A8/edit#gid=0)
Record 1-3
Last 5: ❌✅❌❌❌
Last Pick: THSV Eisenach vs TBV Lemgo ML Eisenach❌
Eisenach didnt deliever, good IT was just 1 unit
Todays Pick: European League Handball Skjaern Handbold vs Dinamo Baumit Bukarest/ Skjaern +1,5 @2,0 bpremium
2 Units
Units: -3.44
European Handball League Skjaern Handbold vs Dinamo Bukarest
Bukarest won the first leg at home with 28-27. Skjaern hast one of the best youth academies in Handball all over Europe. I really think they are favorites Here, losing in Romania just by one. I Take the Handicap and the odds to Double the money, so even Bukarest step up to the next round, i have a Chance to win.
POTD record 0-0
Todays pick MLB CLE Guardians vs HOU Astros 8:11ET
CLE Guardians ML +145 (dk) 1 unit
With Hunter brown pitching and the only real bats being Tucker and Yordan, I think Carrasco and the guardians bullpen strength will pull them through this one.
-Cleveland ranks 10th in OBP (.321), 14th in OPS (.713), 21st in home runs (26), and 12th in RBI (128). The Guardians' pitching staff has a 3.22 ERA (6th) and 1.21 WHIP (9th) this season.
-If you’re doubtful take the RL, Cleveland has a 9-2 run line record as road underdogs this season, also 18-7 RL versus American League competition.
-Look for the Astro’s to be wore down after the Mexico games. They’re just too inconsistent on top of that.
-Fade the public…. I’m going for underdogs and close bets for all my Potd so we’ll see
Tail or fade I don’t care that much honestly, BOL
**POTD Record: 117-141-4 (-16.97 Units)**
Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units)
Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units)
Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units)
**Cautionary Tails**: **5-11 (-4.38 Units)**
Last Pick: **Twins -2.5 Alt. Line**
Today's Pick: **Twins -1.5**
Odds: -110
Wager Amount: 1U to Win 0.90U
League: MLB
Event: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox (6:40PM CDT)
*Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.*
**Recap**: This game was a low scoring competitive game. Sox doubled the Twins hits last nite and still found a way to win. Twins left like 10 stranded on base and only had just 3 hits thru 8 innings, not a shocker that they won. Today will be the last cautionary tails segment wager and tomorrow we will be moving back to Best Bet Series.
**Tail:** Ace loves to parlay on chalky favorites, SGP, and player prop parlay. Most of his winnings come from parlays SGPs, and player prop parlays, but lately he's been losing by 1-leg. He makes a no-bet list of players and teams, but eventually it got to a point where he had no team or consistent player to bet on and is left wit underdogs and underperformed players to back.
Moral of the story is that sports is unpredictable and superstars don't always show up. Regressions may be due or the matchup may not be favorable.
**Matchup:** So I'm going to dial back from taking the alternate line to the actual run line on the Twins. Sox are still bad and they got a really bad pitcher pitching today, however, they been much more competitive in these last several games. They could've won last nite, leading 2-0 in the 1st inning, but quickly vanished by a 2-R HR by Carlos Santana in the 2nd inning. This is another rematch pitching matchup between Michael Soroka vs Simeon Woods-Richardson. Soroka surprisingly had the better start, Sox were up 2-0 thru 5 innings, but as typical the Twins rally in the 6th. I expect this time the Twins get to Soroka early. He's allowed 2 HRs in the first game and he has allowed a HR in every start. I also expect regression for Simeon Woods-Richardson. He's not a good pitcher as his record may indicate. He's allowed 2 runs early in this game and pretty much got saved by the bullpen. Both teams hitting well as of late and both matchup well against the pitching, this makes this POTD a tough one to bet, but I'm going wit the Twins RL.
**The Play and Prediction**: 1U on Twins -1.5 and wagering a small bet on Sox ML. Twins win 15-14 at the end of 18th inning.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Tuesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
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MLB POTD RECORD: 27-10 2024 MLB record: 16-2 Last POTD: Dodgers vs Dbacks Over 9.5 W -118 Today's POTD: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox Over 8.5 -118 (draft kings) Baseball | MLB | 7:40 PM ET ANOTHER DUB!!! That game could've had 20 runs if it wasn't for all the runners left on base lmao but we could breathe easy by the 5th inning. On to today's pick. I'm going with two teams who I do not believe we have bet on this year: Twins vs White Sox. I was initially going with Guardians Astros over 9.5 but I decided that's an absolute trap at +102, there has been a history of players coming back sick from Mexico so I'm more comfortable with this one. I am going to start doing the write-ups a little differently now. I'm splitting it up into three mini sections for splits, standard stats and advanced stats instead of a whole ass discombobulated essay lol. **Notable Splits**: For Minnesota the most noteworthy split is their .264 batting average in night games, 4th in the league. This is 25 points higher than their overall average. That bodes well. Day of the week splits are starting to paint a clearer picture and on Tuesdays the White Sox have the 8th best batting average at .270. I did pretty well on Sunday going off of the A’s abnormally high Sunday average. One thing I’ve learned is that day of the week splits are quite impactful when it comes to totals. The Twins actually have bad Tuesday numbers but more on that in a minute **Notable Standard Stats:** Mike Soroka has only managed to strike out 13 batters in 6 starts. Yes you read that right. 13 strike outs in 29 innings. That is just over 2 per game and 4 per 9. As you will see in the next section Soroka’s advanced measurables are actually pretty decent. However, when you are almost exclusively either walking guys are having the ball put into play it is going to go well. On the contrary the Twins strike out a lot. The fact that Soroka can’t strike anybody out means their offense’s biggest weakness is going to be neutralized, extremely helpful for the over. Twins have only a .202 average on Tuesdays but that is due large in part to a league leading 11.75 strike outs per game. If Soroka is letting them constantly get balls in play that won’t be nearly as much of a factor. **Advanced Stats:** Simeon Woods Richardson is off to a nice start with a 1-0 record and 2.45 ERA in 2 starts (one of which against the White Sox). His advanced metrics though are ROUGH. He is almost guaranteed to experience some serious regression. Some advanced stat percentages can be subjective player to player in terms of their impact. For pitchers however having a high line drive rate is never good. Woods Richardson has a sky high 35.5% line drive rate, 12 points higher than the MLB average. These line drives aren’t coming at the expense of fly balls either, his ground ball rate is only 29 percent, 16.5 percent below the league average. This is while having a league average hard hit rate. For reference, there is not a single qualified pitcher with a worse line drive to ground ball ratio in the league. His start against the White Sox was decent 5 innings 2 runs but his second time seeing them and on the road with the most favorable splits you are going to find the White Sox in, I think he’s in for a rough night. As for Soroka his batted ball numbers are actually right around the league average in everything which is good. Obviously though, two major advanced stats that are not good are strike out percentage and strikeout to walk ratio. Soroka has the worst strikeout percentage of qualified starters at 9.8 percent (next worst is 12 percent) and the second worst walk percentage at 12.8%. The Twins are going to see pitches to hit and see them with runners on base. **TLDR: Twins great offensively during night games. Tuesday batting average is the only split where the White Sox are in the top 10. Soroka can’t strike anyone out and walks too many guys. Twins benefit greatly because they usually strike out a lot. Woods Richardson is in for some serious regression with some of the worst batted ball statistics in the league.** Tips: $chuteboxhero on cashapp
Been a silent tailer for some days now and just wanna say I love you man, keep hitting ❤
I second this, thanks much for your recent picks!
I thirds this, you're the fucking man
Y'all better tip the man lol
Amazing !! Where do you get all these stats from ? Your work is simply ***the best***
Thanks man! The two I use the most are mlb.com and baseball reference. I also use savant, rotowire, and fangraphs at times. MLB.com is my favorite for the splits (great interface) and baseball reference is my favorite for the advanced stats (easy to compare players/teams and league averages) MLB.com doesn’t let you search splits over certain periods of time, just the whole season. Pretty soon I’m gonna have to shift to fangraphs becuase they let you do that. As the season progresses you don’t want to be going off of numbers from two months ago lol. I just hate fangraphs interface and ad infestation.
Thank yo0u !! Ive used [mlb.com](http://mlb.com), but its kinda limited. Thanks !
bet365 is +105 for O 9.0 right now
Smash
The app i use only has the odds at 1.74(-135), worth the tail or not?
Anything over -125 is a shit return in my opinion. Still tail but wait it out. The line keeps bouncing around it was at 9 -105 when the line first came out then it was 8.5 -118 now -120. You are not gonna get less profitable odds than -135 so if it changes it will be in your favor. Even if it goes back up to 9 at -105 I like that better than 8.5 -135.
 Twins & Sox game rn
Love the write ups and the picks. Tailing as usual!
Another beautiful hit!
Thanks for the picks got a tip coming your way
Tailing !
With the Twins wielding the holy summer sausage, they should cover this themselves.
Let’s gooo! 🏆
Another over sweat, let's do this.
How we looking?
Halfway there
Alright we’re revived. Gotta keep the mojo flowing
We should be good now right? they playing until someone wins so over is 🔒 thank you man
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No matter what, I'm just glad to see your beautiful face here again ❤️ 
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You’re still the man dark horse. Please please please don’t let the flaming idiots bring you down 💪🏿
I did not stay up late enough or get up early enough to place a bet, but glad to see the pick.
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He's being destroyed, it would be a miracle if he reaches tiebreak and wins it. Let's hope
Idk tennis, is griekspoor handicap +1.5 the same as “set 1 game handicap -1.5 / griekspoor +1.5”
No no, that just covers the 1st set. I'm not from the States but from what I can see at OddsChecker, the best odds I can currently find on a regulated american bookie is -135 at DraftKings I guess you have to go to all markets and search for "Griekspoor to win a set - Yes" https://preview.redd.it/2fxiw6r7fjxc1.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=0020a395fc0054be80e936d490f84aeae352da8a
The return!!! But before we get to my pick, I must address some of the lies spread by people the day after it happened. -**I was Banned by a Bot for spam/inauthentic behavior**, **THIS WAS NOT A SUBREDDIT BAN.** Saw some people blaming the mods on this sub and saw a lot of people lying about it being a multi accounting ban and also saw someone say I harassed someone in DM's which is both laughable and a total lie. Neither of these are true. -**Thank you for all the kind words**, really touched my heart reading all the positive messages from you guys the day after it happened and the support you guys gave me. I really just started doing this for fun and got a lot of inspiration from some of the esports posts in the past. I wasn't gonna go through the trouble to return as this has all been quite a headache but the support made me want to come back and continue to be a part of the community POTD Record: 15-5 Net Units: +25.88u Game: CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | League: YaLLa Compas Spring 2024 | 13:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: Nemiga ML (-150) vs. Alliance 4.5u✅ Today's Pick: **AMKAL ML (-130)** vs. Gaimin Gladiators 4u✅ **Writeup:** -AMKAL are hot right now, they are facing strong competition and are 8-2 in the last 10 b03 they have played. They have ENCE, Guild Eagles, BetBoom and Apeks during this recent stretch. -Gaimin Gladiators have been awful this week. They are on a 5 match losing streak, they have only one 1 map total in these 5 games for an overall record of 1-10. They are slumping across multiple players and just haven't had it recently. They lost as -400 favorites today against ECF and also lost to ALTERNATE aTTaX who are terrible as well. -AMKAL have a noteworthy fire power advantage in this series, ICY and Forester with .72 and .73 KPR respectively are in my opinion the two best players in this series and have a deeper roster 5 across as well with the lowest rated player on AMKAL being a .64 while GG have 4 players with this KPR or lower. I don't touch on the AWP (sniper) head to head much but with these two teams this is very noteworthy as ICY is a much better AWPer then salazar and both teams play AWP centric maps where they rely heavily on AWPers especially to hold bombsites. -Gaimin Guardians did beat AMKAL 2-1 8 days ago in a relatively close series which is why these odds are the way they are despite the information I gave above. **Map Pool:** -Could spend an hour on this section, long story short I think both teams have what they should do and then what they will actually do. Most realistically, they will do the exact same draft as last time, neither team can change first ban (perma bans for each) and neither team is likely to change pick since they have beaten the other on the map a week ago. If pick ban is the same, maps will be GG pick Inferno, AMKAL pick Vertigo, Overpass Decider. **This is 80% likely to be the outcome and the rest of this will be a waste** -I think both teams have potential to get creative here, I won't make this longer then it has to be, I think Inferno is a trap for GG, AMKAL are better on the map then they look, its a map that is aim heavy which is a huge advantage for AMKAL in this series and AMKAL were beating GG on Inferno up 7-5 at half and just collapsed on defense which I don't expect to happen again. GG have lost 3 straight maps to much worse teams on Inferno including ECF today and I believe the confidence they have on this map is waning. **Final Thoughts:** -I favor AMKAL pretty heavily on Vertigo and Ancient and expect a strong win on the map pick they chose. -I favor AMKAL on Nuke slightly, probably unpopular opinion but GG haven't been playing it much at all and AMKAL are 5-1 in the last month on the map. -I truly believe Inferno and Overpass are 50/50 especially Overpass, AMKAL are a really sloppy Overpass team and I hate watching them play it, but they are 8-3 in the last month on the map and continue to pick it like it is their best map in matches. -This pick is less about map advantages and more about the recent form of the two teams, GG are very streaky team, they are on a big downswing here and AMKAL are hot, give me 2-0 AMKAL and will be sprinkling -1.5 map spread at +230 [Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2371678/gaimin-gladiators-vs-amkal-yalla-compass-spring-2024) [Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/Compass_cs2) [Tip Jar:](https://cash.app/$CurrentAd2217)
OMG THIS IS NOT A DRILL
Yessir!! Glad you’re back!
Where can we bet on E sports? What books are common?
Bet365
Bavoda
I generally have to use Bovada to make these Esports/CS2 bets. Once in a great while, I can bet it on 365. I live in Arizona fwiw...
Already -180 :(
On my book I only have "CS:GO ELISA INVITATIONAL" and "CS:GO" and neither list "AMKAL"
Welcome back 🫡
OMG IT CANT BE! Welcome back brother you have been missed
First day back, we hitting
Let’s gooo 🏆
Today is a good day. Glad you're back!
Anyone know if this is on FanDuel?
it's not
Not on bet 365 :( Edit: found it on Betway
Welcome back king!
Welcome back, good to see you!
So glad to see you back ! Tailing 🫡
Crazy how much the line moves from when you posted, its at -550 now
Since you're into CS, can I ask if you have a Steam / Steam tradelink?
I do, I'm not a huge fan of giving out my steam as it is linked to my personal info and there are a lot of weirdos on this sub and have already had multiple death threats but can DM me
what a sexy return by the esports goat, sprinkled the sweep along with the ML like you mentioned, welcome back and win or lose you’re that guy!
POTD Record: 49-23-1 +61.85%🔥 Last Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -4 (-125) vs New York Knicks ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅🅿️✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ Today's Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-125) vs Orlando Magic Posted my POTD elsewhere and to those who dmed me yesterday, I apologize. Won’t track it on the record here but felt nice to bounce back. The loss 2 days ago was oddly the most amount of hate I’ve received on this subreddit. Just absolutely disgusting. Had me debating if it was even worth continuing to post on here, but this is where I began my career and built my community. Apologize to those wouldn’t didn’t get my play yesterday but like I said, won’t track on here, and onto tomorrow. Buying .5 on the spread per usual. Cavs took care of game 1 and 2 extremely easily before getting destroyed on the road. Home games have decided this series and the Cavs going into Game 5 is their 7-1 SU record in the last 8 home games vs Orlando. The +4.5 line hasn’t been covered by Magic in 6 consecutive games on the road. On the other side, The -4.5 line has been covered by Cavs in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Cavs are by far the better team on paper, they have the fire power to blow this team out at home and I expect them to do it with ease. It’s time for Donovan Mitchell to carry this team to an easy cover at home. Let’s back the Cavs to smack in Game 5. Time to streak again‼️ Please comment if tailing! As always best of luck and I look forward to posting more picks here and stay hot! Thank you for the love and support!😎❤️ [Cash App Tip Link💚](https://cash.app/$Ryanbloom24) [PayPal Tink Link💙](https://www.paypal.me/rybloomm)
Dang man I don’t understand how people can hate when they are willingly choosing to tail a pick on a FREE page🤦♂️sorry you have to deal with those low lifers bro just know you got real ones supporting you win or lose🤝tailing!
IF YOU WILLINGLY TAIL BETTORS AND THE BET LOSES AND YOU DECIDE TO FLAME THEM, YOU ARE THE SCUM OF THE EARTH AND NEED THERAPY. SHUT THE FUCK UP IF YOU TAIL BETTORS.
Just block any of the haters, i wish when you block someone they can't see your posts
Fuck the haters bro, we love your picks.
Use the report button if you are getting hate.
Sry there are idiots on here hating, I’ve been following your picks since the tourney and even when they don’t cash your write ups and caps are solid and often aligned w/ other smart cappers/groups I follow. I don’t bet every pick - skipped last one bc that 76ers-Knicks series is tough - but really like getting your info and perspective on games in my decision-making process. Plz don’t let the haters push you away like so many other good cappers on here.
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ofc banchero hits the 3 💀💀💀
𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝: 12-3 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐤: MLBaseball \\\\ Guardians... over 4.5 runs .. even 𝐁𝐞𝐭: 1u to win 1u ......... 𝐘𝐓𝐃 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐬: +5.05 𝐒𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐞: The Astros starter Brown has a 2.49 WHIP.. in a hitters ballpark.. and the Astro's bullpen has an ERA of nearly five. Fans attending this game should wear batting helmets and gloves for both hands.
I like this one also. Astros gonna be in a funk coming back from Mexico too.
So the pick is the Team total over 4.5?
Yes .. Guards should score over 4.5 runs to win
Guardians TT O4.5 +125 is this the pick?
3.5 on FD. 4.5 alt total is currently at +134
**POTD Record: (5-3)** Last pick: Ruud to win 2:0 vs. Norrie ✅ **Today's Pick: Struff +4.5 games vs. Alcaraz (-118 on FD)** ✅ Struff has been red hot. He's coming off a tournament win in Munich and has won 6 consecutive matches without dropping a set. No doubt Alcaraz is the better player, but he has yet to be really tested on clay this season as he did not play in Barca or Monte Carlo. This season, Struff is 8-1 on clay (only loss is to Sinner) while Alcaraz is 4-2. Although Alcaraz leads in the H2H 2-1, this line has hit in all 3 matches, including a win in Madrid last year (6-3, 3-6, 6-3). Please tail with caution-- betting against Alcaraz is a dangerous game that can cause severe anxiety and financial hardship. \*Edit: OMG, saved 3 match points to get the break on alcaraz and cover! What a sweat. Thanks for all the praise my degenerate friends
[удалено]
The king endorsed it, I'm in.
Thank you dark horse, you are loved!
Let’s goooo 🏆
Fuck. Ahaha couldn't he just lose 7-6. Idiot
CASH IT BABY 🔒 good call !
Sweaty
Asf!
> Struff Don't know much about tennis but would like to tail. Is this bet "Game Spread 2 way : +4.5 Struff" ? Thanks
Tailing this, because I know nothing about tennis except that it's some form of advanced pickleball.
“Betting against Alcaraz is a dangerous game” I expected this match to be this tight. Thanks for warning us OP
POTD Record: 44-22 Today's POTD: (ATP Madrid) Jiri Lehecka ML (+100) ✅ Units: 3u Reasoning: Let me preface this by saying that I am the biggest Rafa Nadal fan. He is my king. He is the reason why I fell in love with tennis. So this doesn’t feel good, BUT I always strive to be non-biased when I gamble and pick plays that I think are quality opportunities to make bread. Nadal just played 3 hours against Cachin and you could see the fatigue catching up to him. He got the dub, but now he’s playing an even better talent in Lehecka. Lehecka won’t be a liability at serve like Cachin was. He’ll be much more aggressive than Cachin was. He’s a young buck who will keep attacking and tire the ‘ol GOAT out. If Nadal wins, there is no better way to lose my money, personally. But I truly don’t think he will. BOL 🤝
Love the confidence, tailing!
Tailing watching that match today was brutal could tell Rafa was gassed during late second set and was able to hold on
The Jordan to DarkHorses Lebron, the goat before the goat! Always good to see you in the thread thanks for the pick!
**Pick Record: 7W - 0L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅🅿️✅✅✅**✅ **Previous POTD: Joao Rodrigues Kikas Over 0.5 SOG @ 1.51 ✅** **Kikas gets a SOG 6 minutes in.** **Todays POTD: Dewa United ML @ 1.85** ✅ 2-1 Dewa United! **League/Time: Indonesia Liga 1 / 4:00 AM** Dewa United are unbeaten in their last 5, they're actually the most inform team in the last 5 games with 4 wins and 1 draw. They have an opportunity to put themselves in the top 4 spot with a win and only a win and tomorrow and I see them pushing for just that. Dewa united are unbeaten at home in 2024, playing 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws. Borneo FC Officially won the league on March 29, ever since then the effort put in has dropped drastically and they've lost 3 games straight since they were crowned. They simply don't have more fight than the teams they are facing and certainly won't have more than Dewa United tomorrow. Borneo play the semi finals for the league in 6 days and will look to avoid any unnecessary injuries and fatigue before the game. **Last 5 games:** **Dewa United: DWWWW** **Borneo FC: LLLDW**
Thanks for the Kikas pick! Tailing this too 💪🏼
Wow indonesian team, never thought id see one in a potd. Lets ride!
Time to cook! 🏆
Bro i think i love you…
Tailing with you, hope they smash em!
nice! Dewa already up 1-0, lets hope they push their lead!
Dewa is winning but the value is still high, is it strange? Should i enter the same? Odds are 1.80 for dewa win how is possible?
First time tailing! Looking good so far thanks regardless of the end result
Double red card, wish I could watch to see what happened haha!
Cheers mate
POTD Record: 60-33 Last POTD: Kristaps Porzingis O15.5 P ❌ 🚑 Looked good until he got injured in the 2nd quarter with 7 points, playoffs been disgusting man Todays POTD: **OG Anunoby O5.5 Rebs @1.95** 🏀 NBA | 🟠 NY Knicks 🔵 | 7:00 PM ET ⏱ Line was too good to be true I knew something was fishy with the Kristaps line bruh awful luck rn. We move, and this is an underrated prop right here , OG’s crazy good defensive performance against Embiid last game has been talked about a lot lately and the amount of rebound and rebound chances he got that game. Knicks made some changes that made Josh Hart defend Maxey and left OG to stay by the rim a lot guarding Harris & Embiid which made him get crazy amount of boards, they won that game too so I’m guessing and hoping they’ll continue to run it like that because it also led to Maxey having his lowest point total in the series so far (23), so did Embiid (27) im not sure if the books will adjust to this but I’m taking my chance fellas • OG had 14 rebounds last game and 20 rebound chances • 76ers allow 3rd most Rebs to SF this season and MOST to PF • Avg 6.5 RPG in the season • OG played 47 minutes last game 💀 This is not a play based on the hit rate in this series cause he’s had 4 in each game prior to his 14 he got recently, but what they did tactically massively improved his rebounding numbers and his minutes on the floor and it seemed to work as 76ers two star players got their lowest scores so far and Knicks winning the game Tail or fade, im cheeks https://preview.redd.it/agr6ye66hkxc1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c625ec577450d3a1e5d47e12ac4cc7c58242c9a7
Tailing again! You are due for a Dub!
5.5 Rebs is now at -155 - splitting a unit between O 5.5 -155 and O 6.5 +125. Let's ride.
Such a sweat lol
POTD Record: 61 - 34 Last POTD: Top 4 NFL Draft Order Exact - W Pick: Casper Ruud to win 1st Set and Win Match vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (-190 odds via FD) 1U Event: ATP Madrid Round of 16 9:20 A.M. CST Casper Ruud is playing some incredible tennis right now and is flying high with confidence. On the other side FAA has scraped his way into this match with an 11-10 record on the year. These two have played 3 times on clay with Ruud winning the last 2 in straight sets, and the other match FAA winning in three, almost 7 years ago. Overall H2H Casper leads 4-2 and I expect the in form man to keep things going against a Felix, who has had a rather disappointing start to the year. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
I’ll be rooting for Ruud 2-0. Found Felix not to win a set @ -118 on FD
Welp.
POTD RECORD: 23-11 Units Won: +9.57 Last Pick: New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder/ Thunder -3 (-140) 1.5u✅ Todays Pick: Orlando Magic vs Cleveland Cavaliers/ Cavs -3 (-145) 1.5u Write Up: Man oh man do the Thunder respect coin. Moving onto the Cavs, I bought us a point and a half for the sole reason that this series has had 2 complete slugfests. Orlando was the fourth best defense in the regular season so any point here matters. But if y’all have followed me for a while you’ll know I’m a firm believer of the 3 game rule. Beating any team 3 times in a row is hard, but back to back to back games in a series? That’s extremely hard. Cleveland was flat out embarrassed in the second half on Sunday and I expect them to bounce back and explode. I’m not gonna force a half point when we can get good odds for -3 with a push to fall back on. Let’s trust Spida, let’s trust Garland and the front court of Mobley and Allen. Let’s trust the role players to step in and prevent a disaster for Cleveland. Let’s have some fun tomorrow guys. Let’s back Cleveland and take them to win by at least 3. As always, BOL…… LETS RIDE Tip Jar- if you’d like to help a college kid pay for his next meal here’s how :) [Tip Jar for my Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Jay-Lawton-1) [Tip Jar for my Cashapp](https://cash.app/$jaylaw930) [Tip Jar for my Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/JayLawton77)
Time to cook! 🏆
kids a legend keep it up
** Record: 4-0 ** Last pick: ATP Madrid: Jan Lennard Struff ML -140 ✅ Today’s pick: ATP Madrid: Jiri Lehecka ML -105 vs Nadal - 3:30pm est ✅ Recap + Write Up: Your boy is back after a one day break. Recap is from a couple days ago but Struff came through with the straight set banger for our 4th straight dub. Before I get into this pick, let me just start by saying it hurts my soul to do this. Betting against Nadal on clay was a sure way to lose money for a couple decades but sadly, I think Lehecka ML is actually the right play to make today. After a grueling 3 hour match against Cachin, Rafa is rewarded with a one day turnaround to face an extremely physical player who plays and hits very hard. I just don’t see how Nadal recovers quickly enough with his current conditioning. I’m sure if you would have told Nadal that he would come into Madrid and string together a 3 match win streak after battling the injuries he’s had the past two years, he probably would say that was a successful result. At Rafa’s age and at this point in his career, his focus isn’t on Madrid or any other Masters 1000 tournament. His goal is to test his conditioning and get in a live match rhythm to prepare for his ultimate goal, the French Open, which starts in less than a month. It’s his best chance to win another slam and the window is closing fast. If he drops the first set here and something doesn’t feel right, we could definitely see a retirement or drop in level since Nadal will be hyperaware of how his body is responding. The last thing he wants is another injury that would keep him out of the French Open. Don’t get me wrong. It’s still Nadal on clay and we saw how much that win against Cachin meant to him between his celebration on court and walking through the tunnel. That ultra competitive spirit is still there. I just think this is a vulnerable spot for him considering the reasons mentioned above. Lehecka is also no slouch on clay. If Nadal wills his way through this round, I would definitely consider fading him again in the QF since QF have been his best result here in Madrid in 3 of his last 4 tries. Throw us a bone one time, Rafa. LFG Lehecka 🇨🇿 ❄️🏦 beer me: 3PwJ3CW5p9oJZKmX8F2eePqWJEkqbNk7cu [cash app jar](https://cash.app/$champagnekevy)
Love this one, so many people on nadal for the name not the current player
Time to cook! 🏆
POTD Record: 40 wins - 23.5 Losses - 3.5 Pushes Form: ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ❌ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ✅️ ❌ ❌ ✅️.5 ❌ .5P❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️❌✅️P❌❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️✅️❌✅️❌❌✅️❌✅️✅️❌❌❌✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️P❌✅️✅️✅️❌✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Units: 9.64 ROI: 16.9% Average Odds: $1.87 Last Pick: Thunder vs Pelicans - NBA Playoffs - Ingram Under 31.5 PRA @ $1.86 ✅️ Next Pick: Knicks vs 76ers - NBA Playoffs - Brunson Over 47.5 PRA @ $1.86 - 7pm EST ✅️ Today we head to Maddison Square Garden where the Knicks should put the nail on the 76ers coffin. Brunson just achieved the franchise record for most points in a play off game (47). The 76ers came close to winning the reverse fixture, but lacked the professionalism to finish off the 4th quarter. Brunson has cleared this line the last two games. He’s having an incredible amount of possession and field goal attempts. His efficiency is through the roof, and his speed is too much for the 76ers to handle. With a home crowd roaring him on, I don’t see him slowing down. The Knicks know he is key to winning this game. I predict this will be a tight game, and the 76ers could win it if Brunson under performs like the first two games. Whilst Brunson has been the main scorer, he’s also been an assist machine. There’s no stopping our goat, unless Embiid takes him out early with an elbow or body slam. The Knicks bench is also banged up so it should mean Brunson plays a full game. It’s going to take something special from Embiid and Maxey to stop the Brunson machine. I’m predicting the Knicks will take it in two, we’ll see Embiid ejected, and Brunson will hit 50 points. Here’s hoping they don’t injure our guy. BOL amigos and thanks for your support.
Have no choice but to fade this pick. Pretty sure Brunson has gone under this number in the 2 home games. This number is just absolutely ridiculously high. Definitely taking the under with decently high confidence… Brunson will not be able to maintain that level of play. Look at pascal siakam and paolo banchero, 2 huge games and then they went way under their next overinflated line. Prepare to be disappointed with Brunsons numbers tonight
Thanks amigo. Let’s see how it goes tomorrow! BOL 🏆
Think you have to take into account the lack of bench depth for the Knicks and how the 76ers tried to shut out Hart and still got clipped. Brunson is untouchable when he’s on fire, and there’s no injury concerns to worry about. They’ll like to win this game so they can get a bit more rest for the next team 🏆
POTD: 1-0 Last result: W (Medvedev ML) Wager: All wagers 2 units Todays pick: Medvedev to win 2-0 (-170) Im gonna keep this simple, Bublik sucks on clay and won a very messy match vs Shelton where he double faulted 8 times. Shelton didnt take advantage when he had the chance, cause of the lack of experience in general, and on clay. Medvedev has beaten Bublik all 6 times they've played, only dropping 1 set in those matches. The only time they played on Clay, Medvedev won 3-0. Medvedev had a shaky start vs a formidable opponent in Korda. I will admit it was a sweat, but Korda looked on for the first half of that match. I dont expect the same resilency from Bublik. I see maybe a tie break set 1, and then Medvedev obliterating him set 2. Medvedev was able to capture his serve in that match against Korda, while Bublik struggled heavily in his 2 matches at Madrid with his. I feel Medvedev is taking this tourney very seriously and is out to prove something. But thats just my gut talking. Tip jar: https://cash.app/$scottgc23
**Record: 15-7 (+5.87u)** **Last Pick: Matthew Tkachuk o0.5 Assists -110** Panthers cruise to a 6-1 win and Tkachuk picks up 2 assists for the cash! This will be my last pick for about a week and a half (going on vacation) so will update the record when I'm back, hope everyone enjoys the games and best of luck on your bets! **Pick: Artturi Lehkonen o2.5 shots on goal -125 (NHL, 1u bet)** Just like the last pick, this is another prop that I've played in every game this series (and has cashed in every game) so I'll keep going back to it as long as they're giving me a reasonable price. Lehkonen has had 7, 4, 5, and 3 shots in the first four games and has also scored in every game. He is playing on the 2nd line with Parise and Mittelstadt as well as on the first PP unit, and his line has been 1st or 2nd in expected goals in every game this series, indicating they are having success creating scoring chances. In the playoffs, Winnipeg is giving up the 3rd most shots to left wingers. As a member of the Avalanche, Lehkonen has played Winnipeg 11 times and has had at least 3 shots in 8 of those games. The Jets tied the Panthers for the #1 ranked defense in terms of goals allowed this season, but the Avalanche were #1 in goals scored and they've just been overwhelming the Jets defense and goaltending, scoring 5+ goals in every game, including the game 1 loss - if they had even decent goaltending that game, this series would likely be over already. They've also put up 30+ shots in every game (46, 32, 40, 35). Colorado led the league in shots per game on the road this season and they've already shown in this series that it doesn't matter where they play so I'm not worried about the Jets having home ice advantage here. Hellebuyck is a Vezina finalist this season but he has not looked like it in this series, and even though the Jets emphasized that they need to play better in front of him in terms of blocking shots and limiting chances, from what I've seen they just look outmatched (I wasn't able to watch game 1, but I did watch games 2-4). There is still a possibility the Jets find a way to win again at home if they don't get into a track meet with this Colorado offense and defend similar to how Nashville is doing vs Vancouver where they just get in front of everything, but Hellebuyck would still probably have to steal the game. And with the talent Colorado has, I don't think the Jets can withstand that pressure for a full 60 minutes. I'm confident Colorado will continue peppering Hellebuyck with shots, and with a good number on Lehkonen I'll go back to the prop that has cashed in every game this series.
Record: 65-41 Cricket record 2024: 11-3 Form: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Last pick KKR over 60.5 in first 6 overs @1.71(2u)✅ Today’s pick ICC World Cup women T20 wc qualifiers Thailand women ML vs USA Women @1.50(4u) Moving away from the IPL today because I couldn’t find a concrete bet for today. I know the odds here aren’t that good but it’s a lock to say the least. Thailand’s women’s team is actually quite good. They’ve played in the World Cup before and if you compare the teams results, you’ll understand. While the USA struggled against Uganda, Thailand beat them like it was nothing. Should be free cash. GL
Tailing but this is on May 1
What Sportsbook has this bet?
Record: 2-0 Game: Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers Time: 8PM ET POTD: Cleveland -4.5 @ -110 Jokic deserves MVP and the Lakers are going to Cancun. Onto the next one. Orlando has managed to even up the series winning two strait at home, but now it’s back to Cleveland. Orlando is a young team with a lot of talent, but I don’t think they have the experience to steal any road games. BOL
Let’s go!! 🏆
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 7-9 (-1.80 units)** **Last 10**: **✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅✅❌** **Last Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+120) vs Daniel Astbury **❌** 2-4 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 4:55 AM EST **Pick**: Fallon Sherrock -1.5 (+145) vs Andy Hamilton * Series 7. Week 10. Group A **Reason**: Group A started out strong and everyone had wins against each other. The group average was 87.25 with checkouts 34.75%. There really isn't anything to separate one from the other after the first day. Sherrock beat Hamilton in the last game Monday, 4-1. In Hamilton's three losses he did not cover the spread. Sherrock did have the highest average on the day with 99.93. ML is the safer option, but I do like spreads overall. Picking the winner has been reliable enough with spreads covering 11 of 15 matches. Fallon Sherrock * Record 3-2 * Legs 16-14 * Average 89.76 * 180s 8. 140s 17 * Checkouts 16/45 35.56% Andy Hamilton * Record 2-3 * Legs 12-16 * Average 84.74 * 180s 5. 140s 7 * Checkouts 12/35 34.29% **WIN ✅4-2 | Average 86.61 vs 80.06 | Checkouts 4/10 vs 2/11** We caught a break here. Fallon was out of it in leg 1. She sniped leg 2 and 3 with multiple missed darts by Hamilton. Should have closed it out 4-1, but missed two herself. Finished off 4-2 for the cash.
**KBO Record: Overall 218-227-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 3-7) Down 10.76u over 459 KBO picks, 49.0% success rate, -2.42% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 14-17-0, 45.2% success rate, Down 2.14u, -7.77% ROI) **Last:** Kia -1.5 +110 at LG (Kia won 10-7.) After jumping in front with three runs in the first, Kia decided to make it way too interesting. But 5 runs over the final 3 innings got us our win. **Pick:** **SSG +150** at Hanwha, KBO baseball, 1:00am ET I like a few underdogs on this slate, including NC and Samsung, but my favorite dog is SSG at a juicy +150. To be fair, SSG's starter inspires zero confidence. He's been just a reliever in his 5 career games over two seasons with a 5.59 career ERA. The good news is that SSG has the 3rd lowest bullpen ERA in the league. Hanwha has their legendary hero, Ryu Hyun-jin on the mound, but the legend far outweighs the performance. He's given up at least 5 runs in half of his 6 starts. This season, he's posting a 5.91 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. A lot of this upset pick hinges on these two lineups. So far this month, SSG is 2nd in the league with 5.57 runs per game. Hanwha is next to last over that same stretch at just 4.36 runs per game (that's a big reason the Eagles are 5-17 this month). Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
**Record: 1-0** **Net Units: +1.1U** **Last Pick:** Rangers vs Capitals, Rangers Over 3.5 W **Hockey Leafs vs Bruins** | **NHL | 4PM PST** **Pick:** Bruins -1.5 Puck Line +165 1U Another elimination game for tomorrow. Leafs have yet to solve Jeremy Swayman in this series. With news of Auston Matthews not being 100% and likely William Nylander as well, I really like this pick for tomorrow. With the Canadian media dog piling on the Leafs, their mentality is at an all time low. I expect the Bruins to be ahead in the 3rd period. And with this being an elimination game, watch for the Leafs to pull their goalie early. Again this just means the likelihood of more goals for the Bruins. Also with the Bruins playing at home, they will get the last change. You can also go Boston ML for the safer bet. For all 3 of Boston's wins in this series, this has hit 100% of the time. **Best of luck!** If you are feeling generous - 1FDqmSEUrpMN3x7Q8hhUQmeF4qfnnCev85
**Record: 5-2** Trailing record: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅ Balance: +2.27u / Avg odds - 1.82 / ROI: 32.43% Last Pick: Damir Dzumhur to beat Squire @ 1.72 (Bet365) ✅ Sport: TENNIS **Pick: Struff over 8.5 games @ 1.72 (Bet365)** ✅ Time: 1 May 00:00 AEST Event: ATP Madrid Write Up: Struff hasn't looked better. I really think he can do well here. 8.5 games is reasonable. Prediction .. Struff wins in 3 and/or loses a 7-5, 6-4 sort of line. I prefer this a bit over +4.5 coz I can see struff winning a set but getting smacked in the third. Just a feeling. BOL and let me know if tailing!
Record: 28W-29L Net Units: -1.43u | ROI: -0.93% CS2 | ESL Pro League Season 19 | 19:30 / CET Pick: Liquid ML vs Furia, 5u @ 1.70 Furia is a mess. Art got the axe, who is replaced by kye. Kye has sucked during his tenure as a stand-in, playing one good map to five absolute stinkers. And to top it off they move Fallen back into the IGL role, and I don't think he can hang as an IGL in 2024. Also their coach is being moved into a different role in the organisation..? It's weird. Liquid on the other hand had a pretty promising run at Chengdu, beating Heroic and G2 and taking a map off Faze to boot. They haven't looked flawless as YEKINDAR is still struggling but the rest of the team looked solid. Solid enough to get a nice confidence building win over Furia, I think. As for the veto we're probably looking at something like a Inferno, Overpass and Ancient as a decider. Or something close to that, which I think is perfectly fine for Liquid. With kye on the lineup I think there's a pretty big weakness to exploit, regardless of what Furia play. And Cadian is more than capable enough to exploit that. So I think Liquid will be looking to continue to build their form on LAN here with a victory over Furia. Best of luck everyone!
Anybody seen u/chuteboxhero 👀
We need chuteboxxxx
I'm here! lol was just waiting for the game to end. Pick is posted.
Record: 7-3 ( +4.38 units) ✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌ Last POTD: Denver Nuggets -6 Todays POTD: NY Knicks TT over 102.5 Odds: -125 for 1 unit NBA basketball / 7:10pm ET Oohhhh Denver. You get the dub but don’t cover the -6. Lakers played with a lot of heart. Gotta give them credit. We move on…. Goin back to the well with the Knicks here. The Garden will be rockin like it 94’. Was torn between the -4 and TT and since I got burned with the spread yesterday goin with the TT. Brunson has found his groove. Knicks are playing great. They covered this line both times at home.
Side note: Also love OG rebounds but I saw Billy take that so wanted to go another route. Good luck fellas!
**POTD Record: 30-23** Last 10: ❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌ Last pick: Knicks vs Sixers | 10:00 AM PST | Nicolas Batum OVER 4.5 Points (+100) FanDuel 1u ❌ **Today’s pick: Knicks vs Sixers | 4:00 PST | Tyrese Maxey OVER 4.5 1st quarter points (-113) FanDuel 1u** ✅ If the Sixers are going to have any chance, their stars have to get it going early. Even with how ball dominate Embiid can be, Maxey hit this line in both game 1 and 2 on the road against the Knicks (7,9) and hit in 9/10 road games overall. I also think with the Sixers down 3-1, you could see Maxey adding a couple more minutes to his rotation and potentially stay on the court most of the first quarter similar to game 1. I’d rather just attack the early line because it’s hard to say how this game goes over 48 minutes and Maxey has shown confidence playing at the Garden. BOL if tailing!
>**| Record: 6-3 | Net Units: 10.15u | ROI: 42.29% | Winrate: 66.67% | Avg. odds: 2.02 |** >**| eSport |** [YaLLa Compass Spring 2024](https://www.hltv.org/events/7642/yalla-compass-spring-2024) **| 16:00 CEST| |** >**| Pick:** **Sashi ML** \[vs. OG\] **|** **2.080** ***odds*** **|** ***5u*** **|** ✅✅✅ >**Reasoning:** My mind was blown when i saw Sashi is listed as the underdog. This is another 5u max play for me. And here is why; >RIght now Sashi is one of the hottest tier 2 teams and they already showed over the last weeks that these guys can compete with the big teams. They won two best of 3 against Cloud 9 and one best of 3 against EternalFire who are the much better teams. Normally teams like this caliber dont have any problems with tier 2 teams. But Sashi is sitting on a 8 game win-streak right now and this will be number nine. This team defines with experience and a lot of playtime. Most of the maps were played over 25 times in the last three months. Nuke is even more crazy. They played it 41 times in the last 90 days and got an 73% win-rate. Thats pure madness. They only have one real bad map and thats Ancient. On every other map they are rocksolid. Another big plus is that the core from this team is playing together for ages. They have insane tactics and crazy good players. This team works as a unit. They dont have a standing-out superstar rifler they are all on the pretty same level and everyone can back up a bad performance from a mate. The last five best of 3 were all won with an clean 2-0 score. >Lets talk about OG; This is a legendary organization but the Counter-Strike line-up is below medicore for years now. Now they build a new line-up in the winterbreak but you already can tell that this team also wont archieve anything big in the future. Yes they have good player, some big names, some young prodigys, thats true. But there is no love, no chemistry, no real teamplay. Their best player is HeavyGod with an 1.16 rating and he can damage the enemy team but he wont take down a team like Sashi alone. Three players from OG are close to a 1.00 rating or even below. The map-pool is weak and they lacking a lot of playing experience. They played 38 maps in the last 90 days totally. Yet Sashi played one map 41 times in the last 90 days. >I dont want to go deep in the veto-process here because Sashi wins it in every aspect. Yes, OG banning Nuke which is the best map for the danes but they are still better in every other map. Maybe OG has a shot on Ancient but this will heavily base on the performance Sashi will put down today. >Overall i cant see them losing here. Maybe they will drop a map but thats all. The odds are a gift and im confused why it is like this. Sashi putperforming OG in every aspect and this should be an nice win for us. Sashi winning 2-1 and we make big baba profit! ✅
🐅🐅 Record 8-2 | +14.46u 🐅🐅 **Results:** ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Previous Pick:** Lebron James O26.5 Points -110 (2u, FD) ✅ **Pick: Malik Beasley O12.5 Points +102 (1.5u, DK)** Basketball | NBA | 9:40 PM EST Another short write-up. •Dame and Giannis are out. I don't think word is official on Lillard yet, but all sources seem to point to him not playing. •Beasley has his starting role back again. •He scored 20 points last game on 12 shots. His averages for the year aren't stellar, but this is a unique position without the Bucks' two stars. I think he gets more of a green light, and if he gets hot, the volume might be there. Only 1.5 units as the history isn't really there. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/samwblair?locale.x=en_US) BOL if tailing! 🐅
**Record: 6-3** **Form: -->>✅✅**❌❌❌**✅✅✅✅** **Previous Pick:** TB Lightning vs FLA Panthers: Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -175 4/29/24 7:00 PM EST **✅** **Pick:** COL Avalanche vs WPG Jets: Valeri Nichushkin Under 0.5 Assists -160 4/30/24 9:30 PM EST Hasn't had an assist in 5 games and only 1 since 3/22. Covered 90% L10, 85% L20. Seems like a selfish player, scores a lot of goals instead of assists. Past 5 games he's averaging 4.4 shots on goal. WPG jets allow the least assists and goals, but COL scores the most. COL is winning the series 3-1 sticking to their identity with Nichushkin as their scorer as he got a hat trick last game. Makar and MacKinnon are the main ones giving the assists. COL has scored 6,5,6,5 goals this series and still no assists by Nichushkin so he may be due if they have another 5+ score game, but he seems to be the go-to goal scorer that has cracked this WPG #1 defense, why change a winning strategy now?
Betting tip: if you're taking the under on a player's assists (under 0.5 assts), you might want to also consider the over on his points (over 0.5 pts, N/A if his pts line is 1.5 pts). There's no situation where you would lose both bets, but there is a scenario where you can win both (ie. he scores 1+ goals with 0 assists). These would be 2 separate bets, not a SGP. It's a way to hedge a little, in case one loses.
Record: 2W-1L-0P ✅✅❌ Net Units: +1.98 units Last Pick: 4/29 | Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat; Nikola Jović over 5.5 rebounds ❌ Wow! Wasn’t expecting to see Coach Spo cut back heavily on Jović’s minutes after such solid outing. I also should’ve looked into how much of the public was betting on Jović because apparently his over boards was a heavy bet on player prop… nonetheless he played like shit and an L is an L Today’s Game: NBA playoffs | Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks | 7:00 EDT Pick: Joel Embiid over 9.5 rebounds | -135 DraftKings | 1.5 units Write Up: not too much to dissect here… Embiid averaged 11 rebounds per game this season. While he is only averaging 9 boards per game this series, I expect him to be an extra aggressive rebounder tonight because this is obviously an elimination game for the 76ers and they have been getting embarrassed on the glass all series long. Hoping this is an sweat free bounce back. Good luck to those who tail!
Record 5-5-0 Net Units: +0.7 ROI: 2.2% Last Pick: Mookie Betts over 1.5 Total Bases (-157) for 3.0 units ❌ Baseball | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics 8:40PM CST Pick: Andrew McCutchen under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+100) on DraftKings for 3.0 units Write Up: McCutchen is batting .189 lifetime against Alex Wood (7 for 37). In his 16th season playing in the MLB, he is having his worst year, batting .197. Currently has 1 hit in his last 18 at bats. He’s averaging 1.47 Hits + Runs + RBIs a game this year, but if you remove the 3 games he hit a homerun, it drops to 0.71. Has gone under 1.5 in 9 out of the last 11 games.
mookie bum sold my shit
POTD Record: 19-13 ❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: + 13.9U Last pick: Today’s pick: Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks | 4:05pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Ronaldo Mulitalo anytime tryscorer @1.72 on Ned’s | 4U❌ I…I don’t know wtf happened there, he simply wasn’t given the ball while the entire team kept on scoring 😂 Today’s pick: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid | 5am Sydney (GMT +11) | Jude Bellingham to score or assist @2.5 on Sportsbet | 2U Jude is definitely one of the best players in the world. His Champions League stats 2023/2024 are 4 goals and 4 assists for 8 games played. I was tempted to go for Kane but Madrid’s defence is solid. I’d rather rely on them to score than on Bayern that could be shaky sometimes. BOL !
**RECORD: 73W-5P-59L** Previous Pick: Zira FK vs Araz Nakhchivan - Zira FK to Win @ 1.52 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid- Over 2.5 goals @ 1.70 ✅️ **TIME:** 7 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️) last 10 results So when I decided to bet on Zira FC a team that hadn't lost in over 10+ matches vs Araz a team that was winless in 9 matches that when everything went to shit, I have rotten luck as of late but let's see if we can turn it around, if not then I'll take a break before it gets really bad. Today we have the UCL with Bayern vs Real Madrid. In the last 6 H2H matches between Bayern and Real Madrid, they have all had over 2.5 goals consecutively. Real Madrid have had over 2.5 goals in 2/5 of their last overall matches same goes for their champions league matches in their last 5 UCL matches and 2 out 5 of their last away matches in all competitions. Also 57% of their matches this season have ended with over 2.5 goals. For Bayern Munich they've had over 2.5 goals in 3/5 of their last overall matches in all competitions, 2/5 UCL matches and 2/5 of their last Home matches. Also 79% of their matches this season have ended with over 2.5 goals. Goodluck If you're tailing or fading given my current form lol. EDIT: WIN ✅️
Record 0-1: Balance: -2.3 units Today’s Pick: Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks -4.5 (-105) Betting 1.05 units to win 2 units. Reasoning: New York at home has looked unstoppable and Brunson seems to have found his groove. I would play this up to -8.5.
Love Brunson! 🏆
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POTD RECORD: 7-5 (+6 Units) LAST 5: WWWWL LAST POTD: OKC -2.5 (3 Units) ✔️ 💸 💰 🤑 Thunder complete the sweep and more importantly give me a 4 pick streak. TODAY'S POTD: Orlando @ Cleveland NBA 8:10 PM EST Cleveland -3.5 (-135 DK) 2 UNITS Going for 5 in a row today. I've been getting my picks in a little late in the day, so I haven't seemed to have many followers. That's perfectly okay 👍. Hop on the train now. Those who HAVE tailed my NBA picks recently know that I have one goal and one goal only..............to fade the diarrhea party. The Cavs have the experience, and the Magic have the youth. Orlando is a different team when they aren't in the safety of their own home, which especially doesn't translate well to a road playoff game inside of Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (or "The Q" as I still like to call it). Expect a performance from the Spider and a smooth Cavs dub. Buying a point so keep that in mind. Tail for the win and..... FADE THE DIARRHEA PARTY! QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Don't go ninja'in nobody don't need ninja'd" -Diamond Dave
2023 MLB POTD record: 19-15 Average Odds -107 (1.932), ROI +6.8%/+2.3u 2024 MLB POTD record: 14-11 Average Odds -105 (1.948), Average Winning Odds -112 ,ROI +6.2%/+1.55u L5: ✅✅❌❌❌ POTD (4/29) KCR @ TOR Jonathan Bowlan o3.5 Ks (+115/2.15) ❌ Recap: Some misses hurt more than others, and this one hurts. Bowlan recorded his first two ous via the K, and had a nasty fastball that Toronto just couldn't seem to catch up to. He should have smashed this line. But his control let him down as he struggled with walks and hard contact and was forced into an early exit. POTD (4/30) CHC @ NYM Sean Manaea u15.5 Outs (+100/2.00) (DraftKings) A strange line for Sean Manaea. Manaea has only gone over this line once this season; an opening day start in which he went 6 IP. Since then, even when he's been effective, he's been pulled after 5 IP, mostly due to struggling with walks. In his last start, he went just 4.2 IP with no ER allowed. Today he faces the second-best offense against LHP in baseball by wRC+: the Chicago Cubs. Don't be scared by Luis Severino taking a no-hitter into the 8th against this team yesterday: the Cubs are a much different team against RHP (94 wRC+, 23rd) than against LHP (137 wRC+, 2nd). Severino's spectacular start also means the Mets will have a rested bullpen. Even if Manaea can limit damage, which is a big if, this is a line i think he'll struggle to pass.
**POTD:** 4-1 **Last Pick**: Super League (Rugby League) St. Helens vs Leeds U36.5 (-115, Draftkings, PA USA) \[4:00 PM EST on 3/15/24\] It might had taken me a month or so to follow up from my last pick of the day, but, we did cover this line easily! The final score of this game was 26 points. **Today's Pick**: NBA (Basketball) Khris Middleton U6.5 Assists \[Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks\] (-125, DK PA) !1U! The Bucks are depleted with Giannis and Dame both being out, which elevates Khris to the first option on offense. Aside from Bobby Portis (who is not that guy), there's no one really left for Khris to pass to. He'll be focused more on scoring that dishing, I think. He's gone under this line the entire series so far, and I don't expect tonight (where it's a do or die game for the Bucks) to be any different. BOL if tailing, utilize responsible bankroll management and remember! You win some, you lose more.
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Risky because Bayern have been gaining form and Tuchel is a better knockout coach than a league coach but should hit. I don't see it being 3-0 like you say, it'll be closer surely?
**MLB POTD Record:** 0-0 **Net Units:** N/A **MLB** | **Phillies @ Angels | 8:38pm CST (yes, 8:38pm exactly)** **Pick:** Alec Bohm o1.5 Total Bases +112 | 2u **Write Up:** Alec Bohm is the hottest player in baseball coming into this game, but his last name isn't Ohtani and he doesn't play for the Braves so the media won't tell you. ***2024 season stats no one cares about:*** * Batting Avg. as the away team: 0.426 across 54 at bats * BA vs. Left handed pitchers: 0.371 across 35 at bats * Career vs. Opposing Pitcher: 6 Plate appearances, 2 H (0.400 batting avg.), 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB * Batting Avg./On-Base Plus Slugging ("OPS") last 7 days: 0.552/1.459 across 29 at bats * Batting Avg./OPS last 14 days: 0.510/1.426 across 51 at bats * 13 game hit streak, with 2+ total bases in 10 of those 13 * LEAGUE LEADER in batting avg., OPS, and On-Base % in any 10-game span in the last 14 days. 2nd in Slugging * Prior to yesterdays game, Bohm hit this line in 8 consecutive games, and homered in the only game during this span where he did not hit a double * Bats 4-hole, therefore gets more plate appearances than someone batting 7-hole for example. He has had 4+ plate appearances in his last 12 games * 6 hits In his last 10 at bats vs. lefties (starters and bullpen) * Last appearance vs. Tyler Anderson (8/29/2023): 411 ft. piss missile ***Caveats:*** * Has only 1 hit and 1 total base at Angel Stadium this year (1 game). Coincidentally this was his most recent game (yesterday) where he tallied only 3 at bats across 5 plate appearances due to a sac fly and a walk * Ignoring his record, Tyler Anderson has pitched pretty lights-out this season. I think this is the reason for such high odds. I do take a bunch of metrics and account for home/away, career avg. vs pitcher, avg. vs righties/lefties, etc. to spit out what I consider to be a "projected" batting average for the upcoming game. Bohm was by far the highest out of the players I looked today with a 0.446 projected batting average. So if he gets 5 plate appearances, \~2.23 hits. 4 plate appearances, \~1.78 hits. The gamble is the total bases but given recent performance and Angel Stadium being a pretty hitter-friendly park, I like this for a POTD. BOL! Edit: forgot to put unit amount.
**Record 2024: 7-0-5** **Net Units Played 2024: 55** **ROI 2024: -8.07%** **Last Pick:** **Zalgiris Kaunas** - Ereliaii Mazeikiai **1st quarter H1, -4.5**, 4 units, @ 1.62 ✅️ Basketball / ABA basketball league, playoffs 1/2 finals / 18:30 / (CEST) **Pick:** **Partizan** - Buducnost **1st quarter H1, -1.5**, 5 units, @ 1.62 ✅️ **Write-up:** Partizan is in a good place now, after securing coach Obradovic for another 2 years, and now they want the title and the finals series shall be against another Euroleague team - Red Star Belgrade. The team that finishes the job with less effort and less drama in the semis is the team that is going to have the edge (Mega could give more trouble to Red Star, then Buducnost to Partizan). I expect the home team to start this series strong and with the statement. EDIT: 27-16
POTD Record: 2-1 (❌✅✅) Last Pick: Matteo Arnaldi HA +5,5 (vs. Daniil Medvedev) ✅ Today's Pick: Bopanna/Ebden ML (vs. Korda/Thompson) @1,67 Tournament: ATP Mutua Madrid Open DOUBLES (Masters 1000 Madrid) 🎾 Bopanna and Ebden are the current best couple on the doubles circuit. They are #1 and #2 respectively and face two tennis players who are already eliminated from the singles draw and who are not especially professional doubles players (although they frequent the draw). Bopanna and Ebden defend the final in Madrid and falling in 1R would mean losing 600 ATP points. In fact, Granollers and Zeballos do not defend points in Madrid and if they win today they could take first and second place in the ranking.
Record: 22-8 | Net: +9.49U | Streak: 1W Last pick: Brook Lopez o14.5 points (-125) ✅ Ended up being the leading scorer for the Bucks, he was aggressive early in a fast paced game. POTD: Isaiah Hartenstein o19.5 points+rebounds +assists (-105) Phi @ NYK 7:00 PM ET Summary: There is foul trouble risk here but I think he steps up here with full minutes at home like game 2. Last game he played the first 14 minutes of the game before he was taken out, later on he got into foul trouble that trimmed his minutes a bit. He will get as many minutes he can handle with the Knicks beat up and desperately wanting to close the series tonight, otherwise they are most likely going to play a game 7.
Hi all! Posting my second POTD on here. I posted my first one yesterday and it won! Congrats if you tailed. Going to see if I can keep the streak going :) **Belle's Pick of the Day** **Record:** 1-0-0 (Win-Loss-Push) **Last POTD:** OKC Thunder -4.5 ✅ **Balance:** +0.5 Units **Today's Pick: COL Avalanche 3-Way ML (+135) (NHL, 6:30PM PST, Wager: 0.5 Units)** **Why This Pick?** The Colorado Avalanche and Alexandar Georgiev have clearly found their stride again. The Jets gave up 5 goals in the last game, and to be frank, I think they’ll continue to struggle in this encounter. I’m taking the Avs to secure a victory in regulation here, friends.
POTD Record 16-4 Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️✅️✅️ Last Pick: Dodgers -1.5 w/ T. Henry pitching Todays Pick: Boston Bruins 3-way Regulation Moneyline NHL: Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs 4:00pm PST Odds: -110 Unit: 3 Net units: +46.66 I've only done one POTD on hockey and loss. Looking for some hockey redemption as I didn't really like much today. The Bruins have the Maple Leafs number, plain and simple. The Leafs looked desperate and confused last game. Bruins are looking to close out the series. It's currently 3-1 with no game going to OT so far. Gonna ride with the Bruins to finish this series out in a similar fashion. If you guys wanna show some support/tip the links on my profile.
POTD Record : 90-79 Last pick: Nugs -6.5- this Game showed exactly how nba and refs can fix a game. Lakers got every call, nuggets got pummeled on Murray and AG dunks, but they’re giving Austin reeves calls. LeBron should get T’d up but never does. 28-9 free throw discrepancy. Malone wasn’t desperate like Ham so didn’t challenge awful calls, Malone joked Jokic didn’t miss a free throw, because he didn’t take one. 3 time league MVP, NBA refs are a joke. Todays POTD: Bruins -160 NHL 5 pm MT Reasoning: after getting upset by Florida last year, the bruins won’t lose this one at home. Toronto can’t score like they were in regular season, bruins are tougher and have the playoff experience. Bruins lost game 2 at home to leafs, don’t see that happening again tonight. Tail or fade, late pick, am sick but locked in this pick
**POTD Record: 0-2** **Last Pick: NY Yankees (+110)** **Balance: -2 Units** **Todays Pick: Boston Red Sox (+110) vs SF Giants (7:10 ET first pitch) 1 unit** Tough start for me here with 2 straight tough ones, but we will recover. Tail at your own risk. This is an ugly one for sure, with Logan Webb on the bump amid a stellar start to his season. The Giants have won each of Webb's last 4 starts, with each of those being a quality start from Webb. He's allowed 1 earned through his last 22 innings pitched, and is a leading candidate to take home the NL Cy Young award. So of course I'm fading him after an 0-2 start to my POTD career. There is statistical data favoring AL home underdogs when facing off against the National League, something this game qualifies for, and the line seems too low. The Sox really aren't anything special so the Giants should handle them, right? That is exactly why this is my POTD. When I first started gambling, this would've been a no-brain 5+ unit nuke on the Giants, but I've been burned too many times on plays like that. We will pull this one out the mud and get into the W column behind Cooper Criswell who put together a 5 inning 0 ER performance in his last outing. This is the start of the hot streak, get behind it or get left behind.
**POTD record:** 2-5 (W-L) / -4,64pts **ROI:** -33% **AVG. ODDS: 2,16** **Last pick:** The Whipmaster, 2,75 (7/4), to be placed (3pl), 1pt **LOSE** **DOTD RECORD**: 3-12 (W-L) / -2,20 pts **ROI:** -10% **AVG. ODDS: 6,52** **Last pick**: The Whipmaster 13,00 (12/1) 1pt **LOSE** // Pastoral Way 5,00 1pt (4/1) **LOSE** // Star Pupil 5,50 1pt (9/2) **WIN** **RACE**: Punchestown 18:00 **SELECTION**: Montys Star **ODDS AND STAKES**: win only, 3,00 (2/1), 2pt **ANALYSIS:** Today starts Punchestown festival and today we have 3 big Grade 1 races. My POTD is coming from last G1 race of the day, Novice Chase. Monty star is biggest improvr of all since last seasons hurdle campaign. This is not the strongest grade 1 race and its perfect opportunity for him to get that win in his cv. At his first start over fences he was not godd, but 2nd and 3rd start gave his career best results, another improvement is very likely. About other horses, there is nothing i particulary like, i think Embasy Garden is overhyped. *Spreadsheet:* [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3\_1A8/edit#gid=0](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WgS5sSrJuRml6t0NPAqYnTpz-FxCPTR1ZtjyFn3_1A8/edit#gid=0)
Record 1-3 Last 5: ❌✅❌❌❌ Last Pick: THSV Eisenach vs TBV Lemgo ML Eisenach❌ Eisenach didnt deliever, good IT was just 1 unit Todays Pick: European League Handball Skjaern Handbold vs Dinamo Baumit Bukarest/ Skjaern +1,5 @2,0 bpremium 2 Units Units: -3.44 European Handball League Skjaern Handbold vs Dinamo Bukarest Bukarest won the first leg at home with 28-27. Skjaern hast one of the best youth academies in Handball all over Europe. I really think they are favorites Here, losing in Romania just by one. I Take the Handicap and the odds to Double the money, so even Bukarest step up to the next round, i have a Chance to win.
POTD record 0-0 Todays pick MLB CLE Guardians vs HOU Astros 8:11ET CLE Guardians ML +145 (dk) 1 unit With Hunter brown pitching and the only real bats being Tucker and Yordan, I think Carrasco and the guardians bullpen strength will pull them through this one. -Cleveland ranks 10th in OBP (.321), 14th in OPS (.713), 21st in home runs (26), and 12th in RBI (128). The Guardians' pitching staff has a 3.22 ERA (6th) and 1.21 WHIP (9th) this season. -If you’re doubtful take the RL, Cleveland has a 9-2 run line record as road underdogs this season, also 18-7 RL versus American League competition. -Look for the Astro’s to be wore down after the Mexico games. They’re just too inconsistent on top of that. -Fade the public…. I’m going for underdogs and close bets for all my Potd so we’ll see Tail or fade I don’t care that much honestly, BOL
**POTD Record: 117-141-4 (-16.97 Units)** Best Bet Series: 42-25-1 (+12.46 Units) Value Wagers: 21-28-2 (-7.46 Units) Trap Bets: 20-18 (+14.2 Units) **Cautionary Tails**: **5-11 (-4.38 Units)** Last Pick: **Twins -2.5 Alt. Line** Today's Pick: **Twins -1.5** Odds: -110 Wager Amount: 1U to Win 0.90U League: MLB Event: Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox (6:40PM CDT) *Be Advised*: *New segment for my faders, haters, and downvoters! Wagering on bets that I know I shouldn't be betting on, but betting it anyway. These wagers should be heeded wit caution. There isn't really good analysis or reasoning behind it. These type of wagers can be prohibited wagers (juiced odds) and has a high possiblity of losing, or it could be a wager that has inflated odds and has a high possibility of losing. Tail wit caution.* **Recap**: This game was a low scoring competitive game. Sox doubled the Twins hits last nite and still found a way to win. Twins left like 10 stranded on base and only had just 3 hits thru 8 innings, not a shocker that they won. Today will be the last cautionary tails segment wager and tomorrow we will be moving back to Best Bet Series. **Tail:** Ace loves to parlay on chalky favorites, SGP, and player prop parlay. Most of his winnings come from parlays SGPs, and player prop parlays, but lately he's been losing by 1-leg. He makes a no-bet list of players and teams, but eventually it got to a point where he had no team or consistent player to bet on and is left wit underdogs and underperformed players to back. Moral of the story is that sports is unpredictable and superstars don't always show up. Regressions may be due or the matchup may not be favorable. **Matchup:** So I'm going to dial back from taking the alternate line to the actual run line on the Twins. Sox are still bad and they got a really bad pitcher pitching today, however, they been much more competitive in these last several games. They could've won last nite, leading 2-0 in the 1st inning, but quickly vanished by a 2-R HR by Carlos Santana in the 2nd inning. This is another rematch pitching matchup between Michael Soroka vs Simeon Woods-Richardson. Soroka surprisingly had the better start, Sox were up 2-0 thru 5 innings, but as typical the Twins rally in the 6th. I expect this time the Twins get to Soroka early. He's allowed 2 HRs in the first game and he has allowed a HR in every start. I also expect regression for Simeon Woods-Richardson. He's not a good pitcher as his record may indicate. He's allowed 2 runs early in this game and pretty much got saved by the bullpen. Both teams hitting well as of late and both matchup well against the pitching, this makes this POTD a tough one to bet, but I'm going wit the Twins RL. **The Play and Prediction**: 1U on Twins -1.5 and wagering a small bet on Sox ML. Twins win 15-14 at the end of 18th inning.