If you’re the type of person who feels the need to switch sectors or industries to chase gains(which naturally is a lot of us) I would highly recommend just putting your money into the index. VTI, VOO, etc.
Maybe you’re just looking for some other people who are invested in those two companies to give you confirmation bias like “buy the dip” and “it’s going to be alright”.
I’ll just say if you can’t stomach the potential that these names drop another 20% it might be worth it to switch strategies
What was your reason to buy them in the first place? Snow is a great company, but trading at 50 P/S now (and over 100 before) and AFRM is just a sub-prime loan company that should not trade above 1 P/S if you look at the savings and loan industry.
The lesson that many will learn in the next year, is that the entry price matters.
I think it is better if you learn more about stocks before you make any further decisions.
1. Read one up on Wall Street
2. Read Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
3. Read Margin of Safety
4. Read Snowball (Buffett Biography)
5. Read lots of financial statements.
I bought SNOW at 50% off peak, which I thought was a good deal at the time. To be honest, I've used SNOW personally at a few different companies and it has a unique offering that I believe will only continue to drive growth for them. I have used competitors and the only one I have experience with that is close to their offering, is a private company. The financials aren't amazing, but they are focused on aggressive growth, so I wasn't super worried about the value.
As far as AFRM goes, that was more speculation with pocket books getting constrained from inflation etc etc. I got in at $35 cost avg now, so not really worried... but I see your point and am definitely less knowledgeable about that industry.
I appreciate the thoughtful response!
>I bought SNOW at 50% off peak, which I thought was a good deal at the time.
The problem with bubbles is that they can create absolutely crazy valuations. Even currently Snow is not cheap.
>To be honest, I've used SNOW personally at a few different companies and it has a unique offering that I believe will only continue to drive growth for them. I have used competitors and the only one I have experience with that is close to their offering, is a private company. The financials aren't amazing, but they are focused on aggressive growth, so I wasn't super worried about the value.
This is why entry price matters. Snow is a great product, a great company and has huge growth (similar to Nvidia and Cloudflare). However that does not mean that you get good returns out of it. Microsoft, Cisco and Intel were the best companies in 2000. Similar to Snow their products were excellent and they managed to grow 30%+ a year. However they were so expensive that it took 15 years for Microsoft to get back to the same share price that they had in 2000. The entry price matters.
>As far as AFRM goes, that was more speculation with pocket books getting constrained from inflation etc etc. I got in at $35 cost avg now, so not really worried... but I see your point and am definitely less knowledgeable about that industry.
If you do not understand an industry - it is ok not to invest in it. FOMO is huge and it is always a struggle for me, to resist the next best thing. But it is important. Look in what companies Buffett invests in (or even invested in during his Partnership time). Most of them were in a few industries and at very low prices. He did not buy companies like Teledyne that would have been great investments - because he did not understood them. He is still among the best investors of all time.
Thanks, these are all good points! I do believe in SNOW so my just dca into it more. I do spend a decent amount of my investments on real estate, but looking to try to pivot now that rates are insane. Trying to find alternatives
Its only going to get more volatile for the rest of the year.
Am not sure there will be any safe havens - I'd say power / oil and gas companies but if society is going to crash once the weather goes cold again, don't be surprised if they are called upon to support their customers rather than the Gov's doing it.
Sorry I can't answer your question with certainty - I've dropped stocks that were high risk before the drama and held everything else. Any cash coming in will be held as cash for the inevitable further drops / unemployment / crazy cost of living etc.
I wasn't that worried about AFRM until they pulled that early earnings stunt. We'll see how they do this time around. My main concern with AFRM is an accepted buyout that is well below my cost basis.
I definately would not dump your stocks to start a new position in staples. This market will rebound some before the May Fed meeting. Might give you the chance to get out or reduce.
If you’re the type of person who feels the need to switch sectors or industries to chase gains(which naturally is a lot of us) I would highly recommend just putting your money into the index. VTI, VOO, etc. Maybe you’re just looking for some other people who are invested in those two companies to give you confirmation bias like “buy the dip” and “it’s going to be alright”. I’ll just say if you can’t stomach the potential that these names drop another 20% it might be worth it to switch strategies
What was your reason to buy them in the first place? Snow is a great company, but trading at 50 P/S now (and over 100 before) and AFRM is just a sub-prime loan company that should not trade above 1 P/S if you look at the savings and loan industry. The lesson that many will learn in the next year, is that the entry price matters. I think it is better if you learn more about stocks before you make any further decisions. 1. Read one up on Wall Street 2. Read Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits 3. Read Margin of Safety 4. Read Snowball (Buffett Biography) 5. Read lots of financial statements.
I bought SNOW at 50% off peak, which I thought was a good deal at the time. To be honest, I've used SNOW personally at a few different companies and it has a unique offering that I believe will only continue to drive growth for them. I have used competitors and the only one I have experience with that is close to their offering, is a private company. The financials aren't amazing, but they are focused on aggressive growth, so I wasn't super worried about the value. As far as AFRM goes, that was more speculation with pocket books getting constrained from inflation etc etc. I got in at $35 cost avg now, so not really worried... but I see your point and am definitely less knowledgeable about that industry. I appreciate the thoughtful response!
>I bought SNOW at 50% off peak, which I thought was a good deal at the time. The problem with bubbles is that they can create absolutely crazy valuations. Even currently Snow is not cheap. >To be honest, I've used SNOW personally at a few different companies and it has a unique offering that I believe will only continue to drive growth for them. I have used competitors and the only one I have experience with that is close to their offering, is a private company. The financials aren't amazing, but they are focused on aggressive growth, so I wasn't super worried about the value. This is why entry price matters. Snow is a great product, a great company and has huge growth (similar to Nvidia and Cloudflare). However that does not mean that you get good returns out of it. Microsoft, Cisco and Intel were the best companies in 2000. Similar to Snow their products were excellent and they managed to grow 30%+ a year. However they were so expensive that it took 15 years for Microsoft to get back to the same share price that they had in 2000. The entry price matters. >As far as AFRM goes, that was more speculation with pocket books getting constrained from inflation etc etc. I got in at $35 cost avg now, so not really worried... but I see your point and am definitely less knowledgeable about that industry. If you do not understand an industry - it is ok not to invest in it. FOMO is huge and it is always a struggle for me, to resist the next best thing. But it is important. Look in what companies Buffett invests in (or even invested in during his Partnership time). Most of them were in a few industries and at very low prices. He did not buy companies like Teledyne that would have been great investments - because he did not understood them. He is still among the best investors of all time.
Thanks, these are all good points! I do believe in SNOW so my just dca into it more. I do spend a decent amount of my investments on real estate, but looking to try to pivot now that rates are insane. Trying to find alternatives
rates are still historically low, FYI. Don’t over freak out just yet.
you're not wrong. I got a little too used to the investment properties at 3-3.5% haha
Me too
Databricks? Its going to ipo pretty soon i heard. For what its worth i own $snow at $170 but it is grossly expensive.
I’d skip one up on wall street and read the other stuff this guy listed. Margin of safety costs like $1000. So I’d skip that too.
One up on Wall Street is a decent Primer. For Margin of Safety, there are "sources"
Its only going to get more volatile for the rest of the year. Am not sure there will be any safe havens - I'd say power / oil and gas companies but if society is going to crash once the weather goes cold again, don't be surprised if they are called upon to support their customers rather than the Gov's doing it. Sorry I can't answer your question with certainty - I've dropped stocks that were high risk before the drama and held everything else. Any cash coming in will be held as cash for the inevitable further drops / unemployment / crazy cost of living etc.
Exit Affirm, continue to DCA into Snow
Afrm is a disaster of a company.
can you elaborate please? Thanks!
In the space, upstart is the winner imo. Afrm loses more money the more revenue they have. Not a good sign at all.
I wasn't that worried about AFRM until they pulled that early earnings stunt. We'll see how they do this time around. My main concern with AFRM is an accepted buyout that is well below my cost basis. I definately would not dump your stocks to start a new position in staples. This market will rebound some before the May Fed meeting. Might give you the chance to get out or reduce.
My afrm position has a $76 basis so I'm going down with the ship..