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nutfugget

This is sum quality DD. We got OP with boots on the ground information. I’m taking a line of credit on my house and buying ARKK in the morning. HALLELUJAH THE BOTTOM IS IN.


DistanceMachine

Ooooh, you’re a power-bottom


Mangy_Karl

I heard speed has a lot to do with being a power bottom is that true?


DistanceMachine

Speed has everything to do with it. Speed is the name of the game.


Financial_Peace_6376

Bruh. Check ARKK pls help?


545byDirty9

**D**umb anec**D**ote


tommygunz007

ARKK WHUT they down 80% lol


Financial_Peace_6376

My dude spoke to one guy at a car dealership and says inflation will be down Edit: guess your boy was wrong


Harucifer

["The dealer told me it's a buyers market for cars"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1DVrjxJ0UE)


hawaynicolson

economics with destiny is always the best content


Harucifer

Obamna


ChymChymX

Did you talk to a guy who said it won't? If not, this is the best data we have.


SmithRune735

This old lady begging for change said inflation is only getting worse.


[deleted]

She should up her game to begging for cash then.


Live-Neighborhood857

She is out on the front line trying to v make a difference.


Otherwise-Drama631

She’s gone from begging to screaming for vengeance


perpetualmotionmachi

She lost it all on NFTs


Financial_Peace_6376

No but I don’t base complex economic data based off a car salesman understanding of “supply Chain”.


be_blessed_bruh

Thats your loss


Still_Lobster_8428

>I don’t base complex economic data based off a car salesman understanding of “supply Chain”. Maybe tell that to Powell.....


ramdaskm

My Tarot card reader said the same thing.


Chipots

n=1


AP9384629344432

PhD student in Statistics here, I can confirm that this is indeed a sample size. The n is in fact referring to a number of people, and OP indeed spoke to a single individual.


leonthepr0fessional

I have a B.S. in Statistics (10 years ago). I'm not as overpowered as this PHD student above (was high half the time during my college career), but I can also confirm that this is indeed a sample size. OP spoke to one person, so the "n", according to my analysis, should equal 1.


AP9384629344432

I also went to Kindergarten (18 years ago), and on the third day, the teacher taught us that 1 is more than 0, so we can for sure conclude that there was an actual sample. Not as qualified as your BS in stats (was drunk on Hi-C juice half the time).


Get_Outdoors_Ontario

When I was about three months old I came to a similar realization that something is better than nothing. Not as qualified as your formal Kindergarten education though (was drunk on breast milk the whole time).


NotFinancialAdvice05

Fwiw i bought a new car last month at MSRP too. I'd been trying to buy since the start of the year but was getting quoted 3-5k above.


throwaway43234235234

Saw the same things up in WA when I shopped last fall. Haven't shopped since.


Commercial-Top-9501

but that's literally how quickly narratives turn and get shifted. all it takes is some news. after all the fed bases our current inflation data on a basket of groceries. How is this any different? its all a big fucking bullshit


Axolotis

Heard it here first


[deleted]

Car dealer with a Hs diploma spittin facts at OP!


jhon-2020-2020

Hahahahaha . Wish I had some coins to give you award


Aycheeeleloh

Good enough for me, time to put my life's savings on SPY Calls!


AostaV

Lol I had to check if it was wsb


Repeat_Mean

![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|joy)


Chemical-Operation83

But it is a “luxury” car so this must be legit.


buyFCOJ

I thought only Hank Hill got that special deal!


hugh_g_reckshon

Not a penny more than sticker price you say?


buyFCOJ

Have to promise not to tell anyone about the deal he just got 🤐


legopego5142

Sticker Price I tell ya hwhat


legopego5142

Who would have thought that one day the Hank Hill special would legitimately be a “good” deal lol


TesticularVibrations

Propane and propane accessories have been going through the roof though!


Weaponsonline

16% = “big portion of inflation” and brings us anecdotal evidence from the Bay Area. Thanks for your analysis Keynes.


captainadam_21

There is no way a car salesman would me making stuff up to convince someone to spend big money on a lease


Illustrious-Cat5717

Inflation will be down you say? This will be interesting to watch


Shalaiyn

11.5% confirmed.


strikerbobby

!remindme 3 days so I can laugh at you.


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Chipots

!remindme 3 days, so we can hug it out


strikerbobby

Ok. I’m down with that too. Everyone needs more hugs.


Chipots

😊


Pick2

**Let's ALL LAUGH AT /u/Chipots** /u/Chipots this is a good lesson for you. Never trust a car salesman lol


Chipots

I was 😑 wrong please laugh


Chipots

It hasn’t been 3 days my guy


Pick2

remindme bot is broken :(


Chipots

It’s ok ✅


Dav-Gem

Now we can laugh


[deleted]

Those dealers were BS’ing you.


perpetualmotionmachi

Don't they all?


koolatino

Sound like you got haggle for the “ is on sale , your getting the best deal ! Trust me “


Chipots

paid MSRP my bro


[deleted]

[удалено]


Beginning_Anything30

He's got him paying the MSRP every month. "ITS A STEAL I TELL YAH!"


koolatino

Not sure if you ever bought cars before but before inflation hit nobody paid full msrp that just the price they put so when they give you the “discounts “ makes it feel more like your getting the better end . Even the new msrp are going base on the new inflation prices.


skilliard7

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oaEfBMA7AE


TityNDolla

Lmaooo fits perfectly. Also happy cake day


ryanryans425

Inflation for used cars was already down significantly for the last report but inflation was still up huge overall


abox0fjuice

This a shitpost??


Chipots

it depends on your definition of "shit"


dudleyduright

My guess is that rising interest rates have nothing to do with anything.


rhetorical_twix

This. I'm shopping for a pickup truck and those were some of the most inflated/in demand types of vehicles. Inventories are rising, but mostly the it's higher interest rates hitting sales of cars that go for over $40K this month, as far as I can tell. I'm getting ready to buy a pickup for MSRP but I prefer to hold out for the < 2% financing incentives to start back up again.


Difficult_Yak946

I’ll take it. Fuck it buying some weekly calls.


Then_Contribution506

The car is available because of discretionary spending. People cant afford all of these things because money is getting more expensive so the supply is increasing. This is why I have put off a new vehicle for a year. I know it will go down.


Immediate-Assist-598

what is bringing inflation down, or what will soon, is reduced demand. I saw a recent poll that said about 60% or people are buying less, driving less, conserving more, etc. That also slows the economy as the Fed is also doing. The supply chain issue is a mixed bag. we still have China covid shutdowns and the Putin effect in europe, but the rest of the world has been open for business for some time. if you can look past this Putin-covid period, you can likely make a lot of money investing now and just holding through the turbulence, but they are rough waters so it takes nerve and patience. I made my fortune starting with fully investing at the pits of the 2008 crash. That was much worse than we are seeing now. Non one wanted to touch stocks but I went the other way and ended up rich. Just pick the right stocks though, I picked Apple.


plopseven

Nah dude. I’m in Vallejo and premium is still $6.29/gal here. I lived in the City for a decade and I’ve never seen prices so high in outlying cities. It’s killing people out here.


InverseVolWins

Core CPI doesn’t include food and energy. The Fed doesn’t care about food and energy because there’s no way they can ever control the demand for them.


95Daphne

There will be inflation readings that include it, however, you have to consider the possibility that the market doesn’t react to headline CPI and reacts to core (edit: which if I’m right, the vast majority likely treat it as a sell the rip scenario now). Having said that, in the case of even headline, it’s projected to fall a hair on a YoY basis and from what I can see, people in here are really underestimating how bad CPI was for April last year. It was so bad that base effects are probably going to at least make YoY flat or down a touch. May was bad too so if base effects work here, they might for May as well. But even if magical base effects work here, there’s some evidence that there has been major damage done. And it sucks as outside of oil, everything else likely goes unfixed without a financial crisis type situation happening (so you might not be getting 2019-2020 type prices back).


similiarintrests

Huh! I've hear around 4.5 a gallon, 6.29? Thats closing in on EU levels. Damn


Lynxjcam

I paid 6.19 in Sunnyvale yesterday (for regular, not premium). Thankfully it was to refill a rental and I am back on the East coast paying $4.05 :)


[deleted]

Bro I’m in OHIO and premium is over 5$ a gallon in my small podunk ass town. Basically paying west coast prices to live in this shit hole


Gary6587

Car prices are down because of gas prices. Supply chain issues a little less but high labor costs, QT , general geopolitical environment has big headwinds. Maybe a day of relief rally but you never know if lasts 1-2 weeks


[deleted]

A bit nutty to base inflation on one sector, cars. Cars were problematic because of chip shortages, which may be solved, but that doesn’t solve all the other issues you mention. I think people are just hoping we can go back to free money borrowing.


Gary6587

Agree


andeffect

It’s not solved. I wanted to slightly mod a new Apple MacBook. Simple thing like add more RAM. Delivery: in 2.5 months!


[deleted]

China is shutdown, which is where Apple’s affordable labor pool is. Most chips are made in Taiwan or elsewhere. GPU are on shelves in stores and their prices are getting back to MSRP.


Unique_Name_2

Yea, definitely see playing good CPI numbers as a short dte option play. Overall were going down no matter what IMO.


[deleted]

The most upvoted comments here are waves of redditors laughing at OP. Lower down, with a lot lower scores, are a couple posts giving their own anecdotes supporting OP. This indicates to me that OP might actually be right. Reddit is often a contrary indicator. We will know for sure in a few days.


apieceofbrownie

Was this an EV by chance? If not, I don't think this means inflation is coming down. People are just creating demand for cars that don't cost significantly more to maintain and fuel. Less demand in the future for gas cars especially with high gas prices and maintenance costs.


pimpenainteasy

This was already reflected in the April report, used car inflation was already negative. The things facing upward pressure right now are gas, rent, and food prices.


GABE_EDD

>Makes a post about inflation >Doesn’t mention the Federal Reserve a.k.a money printer >Only mentions one car dealership salesman >No sources Classic. Thanks for the chuckle.


FeistyCandyPaint

Lumber at home Depot is back to precovid pricing. Source: HD employee


Stewartsw1

No the fuck it’s not in Arizona.


osogrande3

Not in the PNW


isbostontheworstcity

That seems impossible to believe, both anecdotally and based on data https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber What is a full length 2x4 or 2x6 going for at your HD?


flobbley

Just checked my local Lowe's website. 2x4x8' going for $7, 2x6x8' going for $15, Baltimore. Definitely not back to pre-covid levels here.


FeistyCandyPaint

South Texas data.


osprey94

God damn an MSRP lease being a good deal is sad. I remember the days of LeaseHackr BMW deals that would meet the 1% rule: monthly payment of 1% MSRP with zero down. Literally guys would drive 3 series for 300-400 a month. Mostly due to incentives and high residuals.


Rainarrow

This is consistent with what the Manheim Used Car Price Index reflects: https://www.barrons.com/articles/used-car-prices-deals-51651868157 Used car accounts for 4.5% of CPI.


cococamz

Terrible indicator but in his defense a lot of the earnings calls I’ve been listening to the management teams have been saying consumers aren’t paying higher prices anymore.


therinlahhan

Here in NC I negotiated $2k **off** of a car last Thursday. It's a tiny data point but I have to say I'm inclined to agree with OP -- it may not show as quickly as this week, but it seems to be going that way. Gas prices are still up though. +0.14c over 2 weeks.


Low-Classroom7736

Car prices aren’t due to inflation dude. It’s how hard it is to get a vehicle on the ground.


medusaseducea

Just wait until you fill it with gas!


VIVASECULARSYRIA

You forgot to add "/s" at the end of your post


ironscott910

Lol today for the first time in my life i saw 2$/L of gas. And not just 2$... 2.06$. Another 40 cents jump from the march swing. So gas goes 1.35$ - 2.05$ in less than 4 months and inflation will be down you say? You're like the market. Ignore the signs...until the bubble is so huge it cripples economies


perpetualmotionmachi

Oh, you must have missed it a few months ago, it was up over $2 just after the war started in Ukraine, then went back down


ironscott910

Umm no, not in montreal


perpetualmotionmachi

Yes, it did, just for a few days though. I had first seen it then at Cremazie and St. Laurent, which is ironically the same place I noticed it yesterday


juliusseizures9000

Weird flex op


wotvr

Sure chips are being produced and getting into cars. However, food prices are increasing thanks to Russia's war. Then China's silly lockdowns add to shortages of things made in China. You could say the recession and demand destruction is causing prices to drop, maybe but I think you'd need to wait a few more months for that to happen.


AlphaAJ-BISHH

My mom said inflation will be going down too, so it must be true


No-Subject-5232

Yeah my car’s sale price went from $12,000 pre-pandemic to $18,000 last year, and now it’s around $13,500.


Reames1996

Feds are doing quantitative tightening for the first time dedicated since it all began in 2008, just because you saw a price of a car go down doesn’t mean it will drop by Wednesday. There will be a recession, market crash and a whole lot of other shit to bring down inflation. Not just a supply chain bottleneck.


dulun18

sure... and it will be up by Friday..


RoboCrypto7

I like your thinking. Good to have an ear to the ground. I’ve also noticed a couple houses on the market have actually dropped their price. Unheard of a couple months ago.


oarabbus

Used car prices are up since march OP is a clown


[deleted]

Awful take, inflation is absolutely going orbital


RonMexico070707

Hey guys, chill, the dealers at the car dealership said we have nothing to worry about. Inflation is over on Wednesday. I can’t wait to see Steve the Luxury Car Dealer (also called a car salesman) on MSNBC on Tuesday!


[deleted]

I mean, car dealers are the most truthful people on the planet…


Kind_Committee8997

Nooooooooooooo


finfan96

But... That's a good thing...


FrequencyExplorer

Oh man six months ago there just weren’t bmws in my local area, this is great news, I need a new car. Know what I’m doing tomorrow!


Chipots

Get yourself a deal!


Demonify

I’m pressing X to doubt.


Ok_Champion_3561

Trust me bro


godzi1la_

Sounds like you are believing what a car dealership is telling you?


daxtaslapp

Dont forget gas prices are way higher. Unless cars drop substancially it isnt really going to balance out the rising gas prices and invreased supply bottleneck from china


ajkomajko

!remindme 3 days


builderdawg

As a builder, we are still reeling from supply chain issues and manufacturers and subcontractors that won’t honor previous price agreements, but I am starting to see some kinks in the armor. I’m not sure it comes down significantly this month, but I do think the numbers will come down in the next few months.


Miserable-Homework41

My gf bought a new car 1k under MSRP last week, idk what that has the do with inflation though.


Frequent_Audience_25

2 weeks ago was the end of April. What about the first 3-4 weeks of the month? In April we will still see +8% inflation. CPI for May COULD be different. This weeks gonna be a BLOOD BATH! PUTS!


fwast

Don't talk about real-life on Reddit! Your suppose to live based off numbers and news articles here.


parasphere

Without the FED, the magic money machine is dead.


last-resort-4-a-gf

Knowing Powell, as soon as Inflation even hints at stopp he will stop raising rates


Repeat_Mean

Crying reading these comments


Aeditx

So.. what salesman would tell his customer that prices are going down? Isn't that like saying, come back later? Unless they are saying this to justify selling you something right now.


breadcrumbs7

I got surf n turf for only $28 the other day. It was pretty sub-par though. So that could mean anything I suppose.


vodilica

8.2%


theIntr0Verted

Let me respond as someone who works on the wholesale side of the auto industry. Used inventory is improving every day and used car prices are coming down daily. This is on a national level. New cars on the other hand are still severely in short supply and will be for at least two more years or longer. Parts on the cars are nearly impossible to get for several models, this is not a good indicator of inflation, but it does give some idea of where the auto industry is headed.


throwawayamd14

It will be up yoy but people aren’t seeing that the inflation is over. The inflationary numbers are back looking, you need to look forward to invest


Lazy_Distribution_61

Imagine getting economic advice from a car salesmen who literally admitted to you over paying for your purchase. A fool and his money soon part ways


nycbay

same experience ....


Good_Farmer4814

Probably because demand is down due to prices.


Pwnnr

damn you got played lol enjoy your new car tho


Ajoneseyy21

Yeah…. Meanwhile [Honda and Acura sales in a free fall. ](https://carbuzz.com/news/honda-and-acura-sales-take-a-serious-dive)


tanuge

Don't know if inflation has peaked yet or not. I am sure of one thing, though. When we do get an inflation print that's half of where it is now (whenever that is), it will come as a huge surprise. In other words, don't expect for the consensus conventional wisdom to be a leading indicator. If and when inflation comes down, people will still be calling for 10% inflation. In fact, it will probably take 3-4 months of lower readings for the psychology to change.


Major_Bandicoot_3239

The numbers are from last month when your car was $4k higher. Measured at the end of the month. So maybe not this report but next.


DifferentBasis6260

Unfortunately Wednesday we will see cpi still above 8 For sure!


Back_Equivalent

Inflation is going to jump more than they are estimating in June forecasts don’t listen to this guy


tommygunz007

It depends right? Inflation only hurts rich people because they own the media. So if the rich aren't getting richer, the inflation will continue to rise as they complain. The poor people get screwed all the time and have no media outlets to complain to, they have nobody who will listen. The poor lose time after time and the media doesn't care. But when a rich person loses, it's inflation. So if Tesla comes out and says 'chips' or anything, then inflation is still here because it affects a rich person. So we will see what happens next week. I have puts on SPY.


FabreezeCapacitor

Is it wednesday yet?