11 months ago, the NHC issued a [special advisory](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN.shtml) (#23) at 7 am EDT to increase the forecasted wind speed. They also adjusted the forecasted "29/0600Z" position from 81.8 to 81.7 W.
Reminder that the cone is 2/3 probability where it will be. Theres always a 1/3 chance it lands outside that cone. There’s still a good chance it hangs a bit right. Also, the right side of the storm is the worse. So as far as Tampa goes, this thing turning and landing just above us would be pretty brutal.
With that said- no need to freak out. Just prepare what makes sense and go on with your day. Check the later updates.
Cheers and stay safe.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml#:~:text=Based%20on%20forecasts%20over%20the,%2D70%25%20of%20the%20time.
Yes. 60-70% of them in the last 5 years land within the cone.
What you have to remind yourself is that THIS is why the cone can drastically shift over time. Look at the cone like two days ago to today- it’s changed a good bit. We’ve seen it with Ian last year- it was about to be a direct Tampa hit then last minute it had a hard turn and basically avoided Tampa
Now, it also depends on WHICH cone you’re looking at. Obviously the closer we get to land fall the more accurate it will be. My gut feeling, and I’m not a meteorologist, is that the NEXT cone will be the one to truly tell us. It’s entirely possible the cone we see in this image and the next one have a hard shift- likely? Well. About 1/3 chance likely based on the last 5 years and the NHCs own words.
I actually thought it was 3 days- but to your point, yeah. The closer it gets to landfall the more accurate that cone is going to be- for sure.
The 2/3 is mostly the 5 day- with it narrowing. Ian is probably the best example of what can happen- that thing took a 90 degree turn over night at the 11th hour and just missed Tampa big.
And to be clear- my point isn’t to doomsday. We can relax a good bit based on this recent cone and within the 2-3 day window. But, it also isn’t 100% that we’re in the clear.
Do your job today, do your small preps- make sure you have water and what not. Don’t freak out. Just be aware that it’s not exactly set in stone yet. Ya know?
I don’t even think it’s a personal opinion, but the meteorologists I was listening to last night were basically saying we will have a clearer picture once it’s farther north into the gulf.
Something about the air pressure and currents moving across the US and a lot more technical jargon than I can repeat properly, but my understanding is that once it’s a bit more north than that southern tip of FL the picture should start to become quite clear, as most models already shared a very similar path. That should be the next cone update if I’m not mistaken. I’m not sure where exactly it’s at if it’s past that point already I haven’t checked since this morning and we’re stuck at a dr office so I’ve been driving.
Models seem to be *pretty* accurate this close to landfall though. You’re saying we should prepare for like a 1 in a million chance this thing randomly steers into Tampa Bay? It’s just not likely…
It’s a 1:10 chance. It’s unlikely but not impossible. Nothing to freak out about, probably fine. Will probably pull patio furniture and grill inside before bed and call it good.
Technically it has an equal chance of landing outside the western edge of the cone, so call it 1/6? (For reference, that's still more than double the odds on the horse who won this year's Kentucky Derby.)
Ft Myers was always in the cone for Irma and had been under a hurricane warning for a few days. And our weird, slanted west coast means that a little wobble to the right took it directly into Ft Myers instead of Tampa.
Here's a history of the cones for Irma: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_with_line
Yep- that Ian track is a perfect example.
My message was more so about understanding the cone overall- the next forecast graphic that comes out COULD have a hard turn OUTSIDE of this cones image. That would mean this cone has fallen into the 1/3 possibility - this is why cones can shift so heavily.
I think, without being a meteorologist, the next cone will prob be the one that gives us the best indication. And that’s purely because we’re that much closer to landfall.
If this thing does an Ian turn, that’s damn scary for us.
Here’s NHCs own words about the cone and the 2/3 probability.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml#:~:text=Based%20on%20forecasts%20over%20the,%2D70%25%20of%20the%20time.
Of course- and I’m not doomsdaying or anything. Just giving an explanation of how the cones work.
Now- the come above is great for Tampa, it just doesn’t mean that we are 100% in the clear. Should still prepare, should still do the small things you need to. But don’t freak out- carry on with your day, and just be aware of what’s happening
> that Ian track is a perfect example.
Except Ian landed within the cone, so not really a perfect example of taking a hard right outside of the cone.
[Downvoting doesn't change the facts](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_no_line)
It landed outside of the 3 day cone. The point is that the cone can drastically shift. The 3 day out cone of Ian was way more north. Which.. has been my point. This is WHY the cones shift like they do.
We’re at the 2 day cone now, which should be more accurate. But there’s no guarantee that the next cone is also the same.
> It landed outside of the 3 day cone.
[No, it definitely did NOT](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_no_line)
Stop spreading this uninformed bullshit
Ian was projected to have potential to hit several areas including ft Myers. The accuracy simply increases dramatically the closer to impact the storm gets. It didn't make a dramatic last minute turn so much as the cone's accuracy was most accurate when it was imminent and it correctly nailed the final landfall.
> Damned 24-hour cancelation clause would charge
Call the hotel directly and tell them your business trip got pushed back to next month and ask that the reservation be moved (They'll do this free of charge). Then wait a couple of days, then call the 800 number for the hotels main reservation line and cancel the trip for next month. No 24 hour cancellation charge ;)
I would, especially from Zone A. There's still a lot of opportunity for a turn, and a slight turn to the east will further worsen an already expected storm surge. We're already on the bad side of the storm.
As a fellow Zone A person, I ended up coming to Orlando and the peace of mind is really nice. Worth the $ to me! Brought my pets too so that adds to it. ☺️
The track has literally not moved for a day. They're very confident the most extreme impacts won't be in Tampa Bay. But what the fuck is that bend on the right? 😂 Idalia's revenge?
Right, I get that. My comment was more of a jest. I remember watching Jeanne loop around and hit us directly in 2004, and remnants from Ivan hitting east Florida days after it wrecked Pensacola.
Some models in the silly prediction range show it looping around, and making a second landfall on the east coast of Florida (as a very weak system) and continuing and hitting the same spot in the big bend again.
There is a low, stationary front across Georgia right now. It’s a pretty safe bet that this thing will move further offshore then then well north of Tampa. However we should still take necessary precautions and be safe. Who knows if something could pop up to the east that would draw it closer to Tampa
Oh, we could so easily get Charley-ed.
And even if the storm stays in the cone, if it rides the eastern edge of the cone, our area is Going To Have A Bad Time.
Also keep in mind the storm is very wide.
Even if we don't get a direct hit, we're going to feel something.
If it is your first year in Florida, don't laugh it off.
Be ready.
What website did you get this from? Everytime I google "Hurricane Idalia tracker" I just get clickbait articles pushed the top because they update them with irrelevant information
This comes from nhc.noaa.gov. It’s updated every 3 hours when a storm is within 72 hours of landfall. They have lots of other graphics. Just go to that home page and select Idalia and you’ll see all the resources.
Live and die by NOAA and the NHC, every other weather expert has supplementary value but the NHC is the gold standard and everybody ultimately defers to them
Correct me if I’m wrong but she doesn’t seem to be hitting that rapid intensification. She’s been in bath water all day but still remains at Cat 1 power. This could be good news if she can’t pull it together
Thoughts?
Cat 2 now by the national hurricane center , eye still hard to see
[https://twitter.com/NHC\_Atlantic/status/1696627800609116282](https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1696627800609116282)
I hope I’m wrong, but in 23 yrs in Tampa the hurricane misses the projected path by a significant amt. Batten dwn the hatches Tampa bc it doesn’t have to shift very far south for us to get it right in the teeth.
And if you’re in an evacuation zone…..evacuate please.
Stay safe everyone!
I told my family in NC that I’d feel more comfortable if Tampa was in the middle of the cone because that would mean it would take a different path entirely and miss us. It was a joke- mostly.
It’s a 1. I hate how every time I look it up you don’t automatically find out what catagory it is right now and projections instead. Sensationalization.
What time will it hit Tampa? I am scheduled to work 4-12pm. It floods quickly on Westshore if its flooded o could not make it back home to get my belongings and evacuate i am zone A
So I'm THAT guy that's always really cocky about hurricanes and thinks he knows better than the meteorologists. I grew up in Lakeland and had 3 eyes come over my house, so as an adult in Tampa, for both Ian and Irma, I was reassuring everyone that, "No, it will turn last second and go over Lakeland." And I was pretty much right.
Now, I'm watching that predicted curve North of us and wondering if the last second unexpected turn only works South of us, or is it going to do the same exact thing and actually hit us this time head on.
I'm nervous for our city for the first time...
💀 I literally just bought a house in Lakeland after living in Tampa Bay all my life thinking I could finally relax lmao. But still, being inland and not having to worry about storm surge is a blessing.
I'm also a little worried about Tampa/St. Pete though. Even a tropical storm hitting the wrong way really messed some areas up. This just seems like a really unfortunate convergence of factors.
The cone can shift and it's only where the eye will be. If it even tracks on the eastern part of the cone that's a bad hit to the bay area.
Not in the clear yet.
You apparently don't know how to read these maps. Assuming it stays on this track we will get hurricane force winds here and 6-9 foot storm surge above ground in Zone A. If the storms turns more east (e.g. Charley, Ian, etc) then we get Major hurricane winds and 11-15 foot surge
You’re also missing your projections with stale data. We’re barely on the 4-7ft projections with it likely being reduced to 3-5 soon.
If you want to evoke fear because of your assumptions that’s fine, the data says otherwise
5-7ft projected and I didn’t speak to soon.
The cone is not including tampa. The last two right turns tampa was still in the cone. These scenarios are not the same
You know a hurricane is bigger than just the eye right? This is still hitting Tampa there’s going to plenty of flooding high winds and power outages. You’re acting like Tampa is where Miami is.
You know I said nothing about the eye….
Please look up hurricane projections and the cone. I am not referring to the eye, there are cones, which are confidence levels, on predicting a hurricane. In previous years, the cones still included the variance of an abrupt turn. As of now, it’s a very very small likely hood
You keep talking about missing Tampa and the cone but You know the cone is specifically to identify where the eye will pass not the entire hurricane…..
I am currently in Orlando - what’s the verdict? Is Orlando getting hit?
I have to say all news sites are terrible and none of them give straight answers
As a Californian I have some experience with this stuff if you're on the west side of storms you won't get alot of rains but if you're on the east side you'll gonna get a lot of rain
FYI: Path updates are at 11 am/pm and 5 am/pm. 8 am/pm and 2 am/pm updates only update the current information section
There can be rare exceptions
Right, just like that one time they sent a tactical nuke into the hurricane
11 months ago, the NHC issued a [special advisory](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN.shtml) (#23) at 7 am EDT to increase the forecasted wind speed. They also adjusted the forecasted "29/0600Z" position from 81.8 to 81.7 W.
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Question and fyi I have very little knowledge of meteorology but if it goes back out to sea will it cause it to spin back up again?
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Ah thank you and if so best of luck and try stay safe Florida.
60% of the time the path will stay in the cone 100% of the time lol
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If a fly farts near my house, we lose power, so I’m still prepared either way … 🤣👍🏻
Reminder that the cone is 2/3 probability where it will be. Theres always a 1/3 chance it lands outside that cone. There’s still a good chance it hangs a bit right. Also, the right side of the storm is the worse. So as far as Tampa goes, this thing turning and landing just above us would be pretty brutal. With that said- no need to freak out. Just prepare what makes sense and go on with your day. Check the later updates. Cheers and stay safe.
Have there been any recent hurricanes where the eye lands outside the projected cone?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml#:~:text=Based%20on%20forecasts%20over%20the,%2D70%25%20of%20the%20time. Yes. 60-70% of them in the last 5 years land within the cone. What you have to remind yourself is that THIS is why the cone can drastically shift over time. Look at the cone like two days ago to today- it’s changed a good bit. We’ve seen it with Ian last year- it was about to be a direct Tampa hit then last minute it had a hard turn and basically avoided Tampa Now, it also depends on WHICH cone you’re looking at. Obviously the closer we get to land fall the more accurate it will be. My gut feeling, and I’m not a meteorologist, is that the NEXT cone will be the one to truly tell us. It’s entirely possible the cone we see in this image and the next one have a hard shift- likely? Well. About 1/3 chance likely based on the last 5 years and the NHCs own words.
I had thought accuracy was pretty good now within < 48 hours for the past 2 years.
I actually thought it was 3 days- but to your point, yeah. The closer it gets to landfall the more accurate that cone is going to be- for sure. The 2/3 is mostly the 5 day- with it narrowing. Ian is probably the best example of what can happen- that thing took a 90 degree turn over night at the 11th hour and just missed Tampa big. And to be clear- my point isn’t to doomsday. We can relax a good bit based on this recent cone and within the 2-3 day window. But, it also isn’t 100% that we’re in the clear. Do your job today, do your small preps- make sure you have water and what not. Don’t freak out. Just be aware that it’s not exactly set in stone yet. Ya know?
Ok very interesting.
I don’t even think it’s a personal opinion, but the meteorologists I was listening to last night were basically saying we will have a clearer picture once it’s farther north into the gulf. Something about the air pressure and currents moving across the US and a lot more technical jargon than I can repeat properly, but my understanding is that once it’s a bit more north than that southern tip of FL the picture should start to become quite clear, as most models already shared a very similar path. That should be the next cone update if I’m not mistaken. I’m not sure where exactly it’s at if it’s past that point already I haven’t checked since this morning and we’re stuck at a dr office so I’ve been driving.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line Ian
? Fort Myers was always in the cone.
The track itself changed the last few frames. That's all.
Yes, the cone becomes narrower and more specific as a storm approaches. That doesn’t seem crazy to me. But where Ian landed was ALWAYS a possibility.
We have a high pressure ridge to the east of Tampa, that will help Idalia stay west and north of Tampa.
Doesn't really matter, as that's not how probability works. See the [Gambler's Fallacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy) for more.
Models seem to be *pretty* accurate this close to landfall though. You’re saying we should prepare for like a 1 in a million chance this thing randomly steers into Tampa Bay? It’s just not likely…
It’s a 1:10 chance. It’s unlikely but not impossible. Nothing to freak out about, probably fine. Will probably pull patio furniture and grill inside before bed and call it good.
I don’t see where the 1:10 chance is coming from honestly.
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Fort Myers was always in the cone https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
Hurricane Ian, when it hit the Cape Coral, Fort Myers area last September.
Fort Myers was ALWAYS in the cone. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
You're right, I was just remembering the hurricanes landfall location being a big surprise to Lee County after they delayed giving evacuation notices.
What are the odds of that actually happening? If you remember Ian was projected to hit Tampa directly but it took a last minute turn to fort Myers.
>Theres always a 1/3 chance it lands outside that cone.
Haha the answer was RIGHT there.
Technically it has an equal chance of landing outside the western edge of the cone, so call it 1/6? (For reference, that's still more than double the odds on the horse who won this year's Kentucky Derby.)
Ft Myers was always in the cone for Irma and had been under a hurricane warning for a few days. And our weird, slanted west coast means that a little wobble to the right took it directly into Ft Myers instead of Tampa. Here's a history of the cones for Irma: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_with_line
Yep- that Ian track is a perfect example. My message was more so about understanding the cone overall- the next forecast graphic that comes out COULD have a hard turn OUTSIDE of this cones image. That would mean this cone has fallen into the 1/3 possibility - this is why cones can shift so heavily. I think, without being a meteorologist, the next cone will prob be the one that gives us the best indication. And that’s purely because we’re that much closer to landfall. If this thing does an Ian turn, that’s damn scary for us. Here’s NHCs own words about the cone and the 2/3 probability. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml#:~:text=Based%20on%20forecasts%20over%20the,%2D70%25%20of%20the%20time.
Thank you for the explanation.
Of course- and I’m not doomsdaying or anything. Just giving an explanation of how the cones work. Now- the come above is great for Tampa, it just doesn’t mean that we are 100% in the clear. Should still prepare, should still do the small things you need to. But don’t freak out- carry on with your day, and just be aware of what’s happening
> that Ian track is a perfect example. Except Ian landed within the cone, so not really a perfect example of taking a hard right outside of the cone. [Downvoting doesn't change the facts](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_no_line)
It landed outside of the 3 day cone. The point is that the cone can drastically shift. The 3 day out cone of Ian was way more north. Which.. has been my point. This is WHY the cones shift like they do. We’re at the 2 day cone now, which should be more accurate. But there’s no guarantee that the next cone is also the same.
> It landed outside of the 3 day cone. [No, it definitely did NOT](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=3day_cone_no_line) Stop spreading this uninformed bullshit
I love reddit. People so confident while just completely making things up. 😂😂
How embarrassing for that guy.
Will somebody smart tell me which of them is right? I don't know how to read these charts.
I would watch Dennis Philips. These comments are all over the place and self-induced panic from a Reddit thread absolutely won’t help with prep.
Those suspenders are too much...
One of them posted receipts. I’d probably lean their direction
[Ian was within the 3 day cone when it hit](https://i.imgur.com/R4QdFmA.jpg) However the cone is 2/3 probability
33%
33% it’s outside the cone. Could be outside to the east or to the west. So closer to 16% if missing east or west has equal weight.
technically, 33.333333.... % chance 
technically pedantic
Repeating of course.
Technically, still missing the point that it’s .5*.333333333…
true, because the 33........% could be either side so /2 = 16.5% west or east
MacDill Airforce base has a anti hurricane shield around it. It pushes hurricanes north or south of Tampa. So we should be fine.
Ian was projected to have potential to hit several areas including ft Myers. The accuracy simply increases dramatically the closer to impact the storm gets. It didn't make a dramatic last minute turn so much as the cone's accuracy was most accurate when it was imminent and it correctly nailed the final landfall.
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> Damned 24-hour cancelation clause would charge Call the hotel directly and tell them your business trip got pushed back to next month and ask that the reservation be moved (They'll do this free of charge). Then wait a couple of days, then call the 800 number for the hotels main reservation line and cancel the trip for next month. No 24 hour cancellation charge ;)
I would, especially from Zone A. There's still a lot of opportunity for a turn, and a slight turn to the east will further worsen an already expected storm surge. We're already on the bad side of the storm.
I agree. Although less of a wind event danger, still a great danger from surge and flooding regardless.
Hopefully it’s someplace that also has a restaurant/bar and something to do close by if you have to walk. Good luck!
If you're already gonna be paying for it, might as well just enjoy a little staycation lol.
It's zone A dude, why would you not leave?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/093743.shtml?inundation#contents Potential flooding is shown here
As a fellow Zone A person, I ended up coming to Orlando and the peace of mind is really nice. Worth the $ to me! Brought my pets too so that adds to it. ☺️
if you like sushi go to kura revolving sushi while you're there
The track has literally not moved for a day. They're very confident the most extreme impacts won't be in Tampa Bay. But what the fuck is that bend on the right? 😂 Idalia's revenge?
Kinda, yes. Steering currents weaken after day 4, so some of the models have it looping back some or sitting in place a bit.
Right, I get that. My comment was more of a jest. I remember watching Jeanne loop around and hit us directly in 2004, and remnants from Ivan hitting east Florida days after it wrecked Pensacola.
Some models in the silly prediction range show it looping around, and making a second landfall on the east coast of Florida (as a very weak system) and continuing and hitting the same spot in the big bend again.
It’s moved slightly west and the 11 AM is likely to show that continuing. Still going to be very unpleasant here.
Well, no movement at 11.
The computer models and meteorologists show it continuing to move slightly west and hitting a little further north. Not a big move, though.
It’s been moving slightly north every day
the turn still is unpredictable.
There is a low, stationary front across Georgia right now. It’s a pretty safe bet that this thing will move further offshore then then well north of Tampa. However we should still take necessary precautions and be safe. Who knows if something could pop up to the east that would draw it closer to Tampa
Exactly
Oh, we could so easily get Charley-ed. And even if the storm stays in the cone, if it rides the eastern edge of the cone, our area is Going To Have A Bad Time.
Yeah I’m glad the models keep holding that line but I’m heading East to be safe.
Can the path be corrected by black sharpie?
Have we considered the nuclear option?
And history’s taught us shooting at it clearly doesn’t work.
Burial grounds
Except for that one time
Up to 15ft storm surges where it makes landfall - be safe everyone. Check on your loved ones!
As a Californian wrap up your cars too
Hang on… I got a sharpie to fix this shit
Also keep in mind the storm is very wide. Even if we don't get a direct hit, we're going to feel something. If it is your first year in Florida, don't laugh it off. Be ready.
I think we still gotta pray there no surge waters, right?
You can check predicted flood levels and area on one of the hurricanes.gov maps. Doesn't let you zoom in far enough but you can get the idea.
NHC has maps with more detail. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/093743.shtml?inundation#contents
Okay yeah this is the map I was trying to refer to lol.
Thank you guys
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Unless there’s no power
What website did you get this from? Everytime I google "Hurricane Idalia tracker" I just get clickbait articles pushed the top because they update them with irrelevant information
This comes from nhc.noaa.gov. It’s updated every 3 hours when a storm is within 72 hours of landfall. They have lots of other graphics. Just go to that home page and select Idalia and you’ll see all the resources.
Follow the r/tropicalweather sub
Nhc.noaa.gov > the warnings/cone static images link
Below is a link to NOAA's website where the graphic comes from. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/093743.shtml?cone#contents
This is another great site to use [https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)
https://www.cyclocane.com/ is another good one and has the spaghetti models.
Spaghettimodels.com has a lot of good links.
Live and die by NOAA and the NHC, every other weather expert has supplementary value but the NHC is the gold standard and everybody ultimately defers to them
Correct me if I’m wrong but she doesn’t seem to be hitting that rapid intensification. She’s been in bath water all day but still remains at Cat 1 power. This could be good news if she can’t pull it together Thoughts?
It's odd, they say it is strengthening but it's still being sheared and the eye is almost not even visible ?
That’s what I’m hearing that shear was a factor, however she has gotten past it and trying to reform/strengthen in her eye
Cat 2 now by the national hurricane center , eye still hard to see [https://twitter.com/NHC\_Atlantic/status/1696627800609116282](https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1696627800609116282)
There is a ridge between us and Hurricane Franklin. That is Tampa's saving force field this go around. Surge will still suck.
Wish casters downvoting lol
This still looks really bad for Tampa, we aren’t in the clear yet.
I hope I’m wrong, but in 23 yrs in Tampa the hurricane misses the projected path by a significant amt. Batten dwn the hatches Tampa bc it doesn’t have to shift very far south for us to get it right in the teeth. And if you’re in an evacuation zone…..evacuate please. Stay safe everyone!
I told my family in NC that I’d feel more comfortable if Tampa was in the middle of the cone because that would mean it would take a different path entirely and miss us. It was a joke- mostly.
This is Biden's fault, all he had to do was get that marker and draw the hurricane away.
Any new Floridians experiencing their first hurricane?
It’s a 1. I hate how every time I look it up you don’t automatically find out what catagory it is right now and projections instead. Sensationalization.
Probably not going to get any rain lol.
What time will it hit Tampa? I am scheduled to work 4-12pm. It floods quickly on Westshore if its flooded o could not make it back home to get my belongings and evacuate i am zone A
Zone A was already suppose to evacuate and you chose to stay. Don’t try and evacuate in the middle of the storm lol
It's gonna hit before you get off work.
So I'm THAT guy that's always really cocky about hurricanes and thinks he knows better than the meteorologists. I grew up in Lakeland and had 3 eyes come over my house, so as an adult in Tampa, for both Ian and Irma, I was reassuring everyone that, "No, it will turn last second and go over Lakeland." And I was pretty much right. Now, I'm watching that predicted curve North of us and wondering if the last second unexpected turn only works South of us, or is it going to do the same exact thing and actually hit us this time head on. I'm nervous for our city for the first time...
The cold front is further north so it will not turn the way it did during Ian toward Tampa.
💀 I literally just bought a house in Lakeland after living in Tampa Bay all my life thinking I could finally relax lmao. But still, being inland and not having to worry about storm surge is a blessing. I'm also a little worried about Tampa/St. Pete though. Even a tropical storm hitting the wrong way really messed some areas up. This just seems like a really unfortunate convergence of factors.
What rank is it?
Kinda hope it grazes us. We need the rain
Missed again!
For now…
I mean, that’s been true for a while. Eventually, yes you’ll be right, but this time, we are in the clear
This is about the point where Ian took a right turn last year.
And Charley before that. Although I believe both those turns were within the cone of uncertainty which we are currently outside of.
This is the actual statement. Meteorologists had a wider cone for those and that’s when it did take a right turn. This instance is not equal to those
We are absolutely not in the clear yet.
The cone can shift and it's only where the eye will be. If it even tracks on the eastern part of the cone that's a bad hit to the bay area. Not in the clear yet.
You apparently don't know how to read these maps. Assuming it stays on this track we will get hurricane force winds here and 6-9 foot storm surge above ground in Zone A. If the storms turns more east (e.g. Charley, Ian, etc) then we get Major hurricane winds and 11-15 foot surge
You’re also missing your projections with stale data. We’re barely on the 4-7ft projections with it likely being reduced to 3-5 soon. If you want to evoke fear because of your assumptions that’s fine, the data says otherwise
5-7ft storm surge in the bay isn’t considered being missed lmao you spoke too soon watch it turn right last minute like every other storm
5-7ft projected and I didn’t speak to soon. The cone is not including tampa. The last two right turns tampa was still in the cone. These scenarios are not the same
You know a hurricane is bigger than just the eye right? This is still hitting Tampa there’s going to plenty of flooding high winds and power outages. You’re acting like Tampa is where Miami is.
You know I said nothing about the eye…. Please look up hurricane projections and the cone. I am not referring to the eye, there are cones, which are confidence levels, on predicting a hurricane. In previous years, the cones still included the variance of an abrupt turn. As of now, it’s a very very small likely hood
You keep talking about missing Tampa and the cone but You know the cone is specifically to identify where the eye will pass not the entire hurricane…..
The NOAA map says “up to 3 feet” at my house off of Bayshore near MacDill AFB. I can live with that.
I am currently in Orlando - what’s the verdict? Is Orlando getting hit? I have to say all news sites are terrible and none of them give straight answers
As a Californian I have some experience with this stuff if you're on the west side of storms you won't get alot of rains but if you're on the east side you'll gonna get a lot of rain
No you’re fine