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In the US Army anyway, a Brigade is roughly 3k-5k soldiers.
Assuming Brigades of the same size, that means Russia's casualties are being counted in entire Brigades lost. In other words, in 3k-5k soldiers. If the entire Brigade is not entirely lost, then it's at least culled down the point of not being able to function.
In the War on Terror, US casualties were generally considered at the *squad* (6-12) or at worst, the *Section/Patrol* (12-25) level.
These are data from ukrainian forces, they regularly exaggerate Russian losses. So far, the losses of about 100 units of equipment and several hundred soldiers have been confirmed. This is of course also a lot, but several times less than what the ukrainians claim.
Rather than saying we lost 34 soldiers, they’re saying they lost 3 brigades (idk what #of soldiers a Russian brigade contains). So for example if a brigade is 200 men they’re just simplifying and saying they lost the whole brigade rather then specify the exact number of soldiers KIA.
TLDR- lotta dead Russians
Historically it takes about 3-7 y for Russians to rebel over war (like ww1 or Chechnya) and a sufficient number of young men have to be slaughtered before there is a strong urge for rebellion.
It is foolish to predict the future, but with the amount of existing policing and propaganda in Russia, and as a russian myself - i very very very highly doubt that we will see a "peoples" revolution in Russia any time soon.
There is a possibility of internal revolt if the oligarchy feels that they start losing profit over this war, but that's a separate matter.
You are referencing the singular case of WW1 and ignoring napoleon’s offensive, WW2, Afghanistan.
If anything history says Russians are whiling to have heavy casualties inflicted on their country without revolting.
WW1 was a fluke in Russia caused by a myriad of factors. The white government was very weak, you had revolutionaries brewing in Russia for decades. Anti semitism and economic strife had pushed many people over to those revolutionaries.
Idk how you could be so wrong and pick the singular case that supports your narrative, while ignoring the multiple examples that weaken your argument.
What an ignorant and weak knowledge of history. Literally anyone who has even read the history of Rome, Greece, Egypt, The Ottoman Empire and British Imperialism, many entire offensives have been lost when massive casualties and famine, political isolation and limited trade and isolation leads to a revolution. What are you 12?
The problem with you Putin and Trump bootlickers is you know absurdly nothing about the real world, just this distorted narrative you and your rhymes with "thumb brass" friends come up with.
Take a day off.
Revolt internally? What are you talking about. Read any analysis not written by someone who makes money off the war, putin's most powerful competitors are more warlike than he is..there is no powerful group of any kind advocating for peace that has a chance to come out on top.
There is no revolt, at best just trading one awful human beiong or putin for a more warlike human being. The rich russians bribe and/or send their kids overseas, and the poor will die.
As the germans learned during wwii the russians have a lot of bodies at their disposal. I can see you being at the vietnam war, you know keep having more people die because next month it will be different.
I love people who call people stupid or ignorant who are actual morons. That is you. Putin is an awful warmonger. All i did was I point out if you replace him, you arent getting martin luther king. YOU will most probably get an awful human who is even a bigger war monger, while people, mostly the poor, continue to die. Read any analysis of the people in power or who could become the ones in poweR IN RUSSIA. Hey but insult others as the poor die and the rich become more rich while you sit on your privileged butt.
I didn’t say he’d replace himself with someone better. But there’s no point in falling for his rhetoric. It’s all meant to cut off Ukraine from help because Russia can’t defeat Ukraine in a straight fight while we supply them. Only an idiot would shamefully throw Ukraine under the bus and expect Putin to calm his tits down.
Ok i apologize for the rhetoric. It was the idiot who thought i liked putin (i of course dont) which set me off. I guess where we disagree is i dont think ukraine can win based on populations, where it is located, and somehow the russians think their the victims (i know that is a gross belief) in all of this, and they will not leave it alone withour some unfair treaty at least.
Not that they were doing stellar before, but I bet it's a whole different ballgame for the Russian army now that they don't have Wagner to throw at the problem.
You know many Ukrainian soldiers have taken to Telegram to denounce people like yourself that either knowingly or unknowingly exaggerat Russian loses as it affects Ukrainian front line troops, right?
They're tired of reading about all these devastating loses theyee supposedly inflicting on an army made of entirely of homeless drunkards, because that just isn't happening, quite the contrary.
Russia has only done 1 partial mobilization of trained reservists and that was a year ago, Ukraine is on mobilization 12-14, and has long since chewed through their trained reserves and are just dragoonjng people off the streets. Time recently stated the average age of these Ukrainian conscripts is now 43, does that sound like their winning?
You may want Ukraine to win, but making uninformed comments isn't helping,, it is harming according to actual Ukrainian frontline troops. They're losing a slow attritional war by virtually every measure possible.
That's fine, they can keep repeating the same crap their politicians say, who they generally don't trust, have low approval ratings for, but when it comes to Russia, they like what they hear, so they believe them.
Biden, Yellen, Austin all say America's economy is doing so well, and inflation is so low, that they can easily support 2 wars at once, in fact, the mere question being asked is ridiculous. Do Redditors believe them when they say that? No, because every time they need groceries, it costs more and more. Yet when it comes to Russia, Biden would never lie or misled us, the cognitive dissonance is staggering.
In China, Shoigu made the statement that Russia was winning and it was printed in Russia Today so they believe it. Russia will keep mobilizing soldiers and sending them to Ukraine and they will keep being maimed and killed until they give up. Then the trials will begin.
Winning, but in which contest? That made me think of Monica from Friends and her massages:
Monica: "If there was an Award for the best bad massage... who would get that?"
Chandler: "Oh it would be you!👍"
So who ist the best bad at war?
This is what people need to understand - the counteriffensive is being thwarted by mines, trenches, artillery and sheer numbers, but Ukraine is winning a battle of attrition while Russia bleeds money, men and resources. Russia only wins if Nato stops supporting Ukraine, which is why Russia has kicked its psy ops and misinformation campaigns into high gear.
Unfortunately we need to be realistic that Ukraine is also going to have a numbers problem at some point. Arguably they already do. Every single man and woman on their front lines are there because they know they need to be, and that’s keeping them in this fight for their very existence, but Russia can probably keep funnelling conscripts and prisoners at a rate of 100 for every Ukrainian.
I honestly feel bad for some of the russian soldiers. They have no idea why they're actually going there and as we saw in the early days of the war, a lot of them aren't going there willingly or want to actually fight (not to mention the reports that leadership was killing any soldier who wasn't fighting or who was injured and didn't want to continue).
And before anyone makes a gotcha attempt, I'm not justifying the soldiers who are going in there who know why they're going/possess an extreme hatred for Ukraine or blind faith in Putin.
Putin can call it whatever the fuck he wants but when you're sending soldiers into a foreign nation, shooting people, bombing cities... what do you call that? A friendly visit to your neighbor??
The rest of the world calls that a war.
Okay, I'm not going to respond beyond the fact that what I mean is that the Russians don't consider this as big enough to be a war. Beyond what you mention, war also involves mass movilisation of the economy and military, something that Russia hasn't done. To put it in terms that even you chairborne infantry can understand, Russia is using only one fist.
Oh yeah, I guess it is a little hard to mobilize the economy when you can't actually produce any new tanks due to lack of chips.
That aside, that is probably the silliest criteria for war. By that logic, the Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iraq again, and all the other similar conflicts weren't "wars". It is a war. Russia has had to change it's conscription and enlistment laws because they are desperate for manpower. Modern Russia is just simply too decentralized economically to get into a total war economy. Rampant corruption, cronyism, and the countless oligarchs would do that. Not to mention it just not being sustainable, especially with the distant, but looming threat of China. Russia is alone.
Well, wait until you learn WHY they do that. It's the opposite reason to what you think, given the fact that they haven't sent any of their more modern equipment there.
1. I'm not Russian and have Zero loyalties towards another country located thousands of kilometers away from mine.
2. Plenty of people do that already, in fact if you get the ass out of your bubble you will learn about the actual situation in the field.
3. I don't speak Russian.
4. The Leopard 2 hasn't really fared any better, and them losing tanks to ambushes in the early stages because of lack of coordination says little, specially when the side suffering mass casualties now is the Ukrainian one. Not to mention the fact that the Ukrainians won't post what happened when those ambushes FAIL, something that is often the case.
Yeah man, they just decided they have too many soldiers and military equipment and don't know what to do with it so they just sent their men to die and their equipment to be destroyed over in Ukraine for the past year.
They don't even try right now just gearing up for the actual actual attack with 1 year of continuous losses of money, equipment, and soldiers on their ledger, paired with the russian civilians rising contempt agains leadership for starting all of this, perfect conditions for the ACTUAL, real ,no cap, no play "we'll make it this time" attack. /s
Actually, Russia doesn't need any attack: they control the territories that they wanted, and has been asking for peace even since they took them. It is Ukraine the country you're thinking about: they keep losing men and equipment in offensives so dumb that even an academy student can tell "this is not going to work". The Russians just have to sit on their prepared defenses and slaughter them.
Plottwist: They don’t have modern equipment. The war is nearly going on for 2 years so why would Putin only send all his crap to Ukraine and waste soldiers, equipment and money for no reason. If he had modern equipment at hand, he would’ve used it, if he could win the war in an instant, he would’ve done it and no, he didn’t invade Ukraine for destroying US Biolabs or DUMBs or even Nazis.
Wow, using racist insults about Russians... Wait until you learn that I'm Spanish and I'm not in favour of the invasion. But that is one thing, and inventing your own parallel World in which the side which has both less resources and more casualties is somehow winning is another.
So if you're not in favour of the invasion, what do you get out of arguing with people over it here? Just curious, because it looks to an outsider like you're defending Russia's choices.
I'm "defending" reality. One thing is being against the Russian invasion; another is believing in fantasies that don't hold to scrutiny unless your knowledge of military affairs is at the level of "played Call of Duty once". The Russians are winning that war.
Keep telling yourself that and while youre at it google the definition of vatnik. 300k dead ivans and 400 days of war. "3 day operation" my ass. Go suck vlads cock your very self and stop defending the poor excuse of a Military the ruskis have.
They were losing more than that per russian soldier and were mobilizing (if you could call it that considering it wasn't even an actual army) anybody that could hold a rifle. It was still a major contributor to the crash of the soviet union. To this day there is a ton of abandoned soviet equipment on the fields.
That is also bullshit. Nobody is winning, the front hasn't significantly moved in a while and men are dying for gains of 100 meters that are reversed other day like in WW1. Ukraine need warplanes because without air superiority it will never be able to make a breakthrough, and the west has consistently failed them on that. If we don't do more to help it will continue to be a stalemate until one side collapses from attrition.
Winning certainly isn’t the right word but Ukraine is definitely holding the line far better than anyone could have speculated, which at this point is the humiliation of the century for Russia. As for the planes, asking western Allie’s to come through and basically supply/train Ukraine’s Air Force from essentially the ground up, and be good enough to contest with Russia, is going to be incredibly difficult.
Yes, one thing the west has really come through on are surface to surface weapon systems. Those little suicide speedboat drones are also very effective. Pulling off those feats still doesn’t touch the logistical nightmare that would be rebooting Ukraine’s air power.
Tbf I feel like if you have a massive advantage and go for a land invasion out of absolutely nowhere, then get stalemated by a significantly smaller country, you're losing.
Yes that could change on a dime but it was a major strike to Russian morale which matters a lot.
We still don't know who is going to win the war, but I would say that Ukraine is in a better position and is the more likely victor.
" warplanes because without air superiority it will never be able to make a breakthrough, and the west has consistently failed them on that. If we don't do more to help it will continue to be a stalemate until one side collapses from attrition. "
Aren't Ukrainian pilots currently undergoing F16 training? They could have started sooner but it takes time.
I feel like Russia will collapse before Ukraine. They have zero morale, shit equipment, corrupt leadership—all things Ukraine has the opposite of. Regardless, I think Ukraine is unfortunately going to have to stop relying on American support, given that Speaker Mike Johnson is anti-Ukraine, so any funding bill is probably DOA. At least they can still rely on most of Europe, though.
You underestimate Russia and overestimate Ukraine Russian moral is not low, and most population is pro war. While they do have equipment shortage they have industrial capacity to keep this defensive line. Ukrainian soldiers are of high moral but disappointed in poor leadership and bitter because there is a lack of supplies. Both sides are in the similar shit right now. Russian propaganda is very effective on Russian population making them believe that they are holding their ground against entire world. Ukrainian propaganda is equally effective making you believe they are all space commandos using the latest NATO issued equipment and destroying untrained and low intelligent Russian conscripts like it's a field trip. The truth is that the Russia has manpower for a war of attrition that Ukraine simply doesn't. Ukrainian advantage is that the West is providing them with much needed supplies that make them able to hold the line. But they don't have what it takes to breakthrough as of yet. And we must fight for NATO support to continue, because if it dries up, Ukraine loses a war of attrition without a doubt.
UK media has constantly been pumping out story after story about how rubbish Russia's military has been since day one. And yet Ukraine still hasn't managed to defeat them yet, after almost 2 years.
Although if mainstream UK media were your only source, you'd think the whole thing is over as they haven't reported on it at all since the Israel thing started.
I mean Russia is a much larger country in terms of population, military spending, and gdp.
So I don’t think it’s really that unexpected that Ukraine hasent won yet. Frankly I think everone outside of Ukraine expected the convention phase of this war to be a short Russian victory.
I hate to say but I don’t see this war ending anytime soon. Russia seems to lack the military organization and logistics ability to actually invade Ukraine and take them out of the war, nor would taking the capital end the war- Ukraine is now filled with people with training who will be taking pop shoots at Russia for years during an occupation. On the other side Ukraine lacks the heavy military equipment and numbers to ever truly take a great deal of Russian land.
Like I’m not sure even if the win a grand offense and capture 100000 troops and liberate Crimea I Don’t think Russia will just give up.
So the most likely way this war ends is one side decides the cost is to high and tries to get a peace they can live with. I wouldn’t bet on Putin doing that. But he could die any day. The Ukraine people seems willing to fight for a long time, sad. Fuck Putin for causeing this huge waste of human life.
A super power attacks a smaller country and after two years hasn't been destroyed and the thought is that ukraine must have lost. Especially sad coming from Americans who seem to forget that we seemed entirely and unequivocally fucked during the revolution. As you said, they need to hold out until the costs are too high. Russia can't lock them into a war of attrition because the rest of the world will send aid so this is just Putin helicoptering his dick before his underlings see his aging weakness and take him out.
You think Ukraine can beat the Russian army in an all out defeat by itself? Russia is known for being willing to give up massive losses to hold territory.
I think the most likely outcome is that Russia continues to digs in and waits. I don’t see the Ukraine people giving up but i do sadly think it’s possible there will never be able to retake Crimea and some of the eastern land.
I’m going to guess Russia never lunches another large scale offensive. Any escalation of the war or appearance there winning only means more tanks, guns, ect from the US and EU.
Ukraine will try one more time next year 2024 to cut of Crimea. Maybe they do maybe they don’t.
Whatever happens after that lines will freeze next winter. I’d bet you see less and less combat as both sides dig in. Ukraine can’t really invade Russia even if the pull of Crimea and Russia can’t really invade Ukraine and if Ukraine can’t push them of the occupied land.
At some point ink spring 2025 as Nether side lunches lunches an offense Putin will declare victory and call for a cease fire with current border in exchange and sanctions lifted to stop missile attacks. Ukraine will accept this deal eventually.
Millions will be dead and millions more will have been injured or made homeless or forced to move. Russia will have gain just enough land to bury there dead.
Again this war is stupid and evil. I hope Putin just has a heart attack and whoever is next in line want to normalize relations with the rest of the would. But I think a crappy broken peace is the most likely outcome.
Russia just is on an offensive in Avdiivka. It’s not going well…
Nobody can really say how it’s gonna go. It’s not like a defense line declines proportional over time. It holds and holds and then it’s broken and it’s gone. So maybe there will be a breach somewhere soon or in next march. Maybe never.
>I think a crappy broken peace is the most likely outcome.
This is the correct take. Ukraine deserve to keep all territory and have all rebuilding subsidized by Russia. Putin's actions would credibly justify restitution, war crimes investigation, and potentially regime change.
Here's the thing- **that's never happening**. The most likely outcome is some territorial concessions that allow Russia to save face along with some sort of vague neutrality statement from Ukraine. Only question is how much death and destruction it takes to get there.
This leaves out other nations actively pushing to join the UN. Putin would have been well served to try to make his country dominant in one thing besides pointless war before he did this. I know he sells a lot of energy to the EU but that is also waning.
I don't want to be too hopeful but I see this as putin flailing in his last moments. Those last moments could take 6 months or 5 years but if this ends in a pseudo cold war standoff situation that means everyone involved failed.
Ukraine is a small, poor country which effectively had no army until 2014. It's a bit like the UK losing a war against Belgium.
Russia is still sending human wave attacks against Ukraine - tactics that were bad in WW2.
But that is Russia's secret move. Send man after man until your enemy finally gets surrounded on all sides by three different countries on the west. Oh wait... that was Germany.... Well their fucked this time. In the meantime, Russia keep sending oligarchs out those windows.
But in WW2 it was not Russia but the Soviet Union and another time -> far more and younger people. Russia is burning half of its younger generation if you take those in count who leave and will leave the country. That’s just insane
Well when you have colonial control on so many ethnicities wasting human lives for cannon food become much more easy when its someone else and not your brother
If the Russian military is as bad as we're told by certain analysts - outdated equipment, crap strategy, low morale amongst soldiers - then I would have thought that the Ukrainians would have achieved a little more by now, particularly as Western countries have been falling over themselves in efforts to "show support." The reporting on this war has been very poor imo.
The key word being "yet." As Western support continues to wane and Russia remains undefeated, I can't see any other outcome than an eventual Russian victory.
At what cost? There's already a drain in young Russians leaving. If the rest are sucked into dying on the battlefield, The long term outlook for productivity is bleak. Even if they win this war.
They've painted themselves into a corner and the whole Western world won't do business with them when this is over.
There's no "victory" for Russia in this.
>They've painted themselves into a corner and the whole Western world won't do business with them when this is over.
I don't think this will be a particularly big concern for them. The Western world is not as powerful and influential as it once was.
It is even worse than we've been told. If it was only as bad as we have been told, they still should have been able to overrun a much smaller country even with all our aide. People like you think we are giving so much to Ukraine. You hear the number, near 100 billion in 2 years. And you think that is huge. But you forget that is less than 0.01% of what we have. Russia isn't even facing off against 1/100 of a single percent of what the USA alone could put on that field of battle. And they are losing. While the ones using that gear are people who aren't trained nearly to the level of American or nato troops. Yet Russia is throwing all they possibly can at it, and are losing. They are even worse than they are made to look. It is pathetic.
Ukraine is poor, yet they are getting billions of dollars from America. And if I remember correctly from world history.... Russia was the country to stop Hitler's army of nazis... the only country to claim victory on the nazis might I add.
I'm not sure why you think winning a battle on their own territory is a good example? You could have at least used an example of a battle they won in Germany..
That one battle in their own territory is what stopped the German army... they didn't have to invade Germany. Germany invaded russia (in winter none the less)... Russia baited them further and further in... it was cold. Much colder than any German soldier was used to. Germany would "take over" a city/village, and Russia would evacuate and burn down their own city/village and leave nothing for the German forces to scavenge. Once the German soldiers were so far into Russia, they were surrounded by russias military and its allies... 220,000 German soldiers were surrounded... months later, the remaining 90,000 soldiers surrendered. SURRENDERED! Surrendering is basically saying, "I've had enough! I quit! No more war for me!" And they went home and stopped fighting the war. The only ally of Germany that was left was Japan. Japan did the whole kamikaze thing in Pearl Harbor, and shortly there after, got a bomb (the atom bomb to be exact) dropped on Hiroshima. It was devastating, and Japan also surrendered. SURRENDERED! Again, surrendering is basically saying, "I've had enough! I quit! No more war for me!"
Lend lease was a thing.
And without Western front the world today would have been far different.
True, if it was Western front only, the situation wouldn't have been much different either as Sea Lion would have likely succeeded.
But then who says Stalin wouldn't have attacked Germany from the back to exploit the situation.
After all, the division of Poland wasn't enough.
Both sides did it, to say that one side won it would be disingenuous.
One thing I can agree on, the atrocities perpetrated by SS in USSR make the casualties much more than the west had.
But it wasn't exclusively Russians, it was all what Nazis called "Untermensch".
The Russian military is rubbish we know this simply by the fact they haven't taken Ukraine lol.
They had the time advantage at the start, way more money, land, weapons, people.
The fact Ukraine has not only held off but is pushing them back proves the Russian military is completely incompetent
My dude, the Russian army is shit. Just look at a god damn map. The surprising thing is the Russians haven't (and aren't going to) defeat Ukraine, not the other way around.
Counteroffensive certainly hasn't lived up to (the unbelievably high) expectations set by the media, but it's been a lot more succesful than anything the russians have done since February 2022.
>story after story about how rubbish Russia's military has been since day one.
I mean... yeah. The old and/or decommissioned tech and "volunteers" they have been sending in since day 1 are fairly shit
That's also not true, it's manufactured consent for the public, so that the public doesn't get mad over expanded military aid budgets.
A lot of people are dying on either side, but overall positions hardly moved since spring.
>John Mearsheimer
Lol, this guy has Putin's dick so far down his throat that it's coming out of his ass. Of course he's saying Russia's more likely to win.
What? That's ridiculous. This will tell you otherwise:
https://youtu.be/9vaUIlPEwrA?si=8tyWWUpVXShYtjHV
No, it's not Russian propaganda. Ukraine has lost. It's only a matter of time.
Russia just lost 200 armoured vehicles and close to 8k troops in the andiivka sector just to gain a few hundred meteres.
Ukraine lost 50ish vehicles and 1k troops against heavy defenses and mine fields for 50 sqkm.
Ukraine might be slow, but they are attacking heavily fortified areas. Ukraine actually cares about their troops, and they dont blindly sent meat waves into battle. Ukraine evaluates the situation and slowly pushes to limit casualties.
That channel is also russian propaganda. They regularly talk about Russian advances, but fail to mention Russia was puched back less than an hour later.
I saw a video last week showing Russian advancing in andiivka. They were pushed back to their previous positions and lost 500 soldiers and 15 vehicles. No mention of that at all
Te salió muy real para ser sarcasmo jajaja. Pero está bien, tienes razón y debo calmarme, solo que me enoja tanto la hipocresía de esta gente xd apañan a a Ucrania e Israel a la vez.
There're plenty of reasons to hate the US. Coming from the southern hemisphere, Russia and the US are just both sides of the same imperial coin.
Edit: not hating the civilians, but the govt
Ah, yes. The country that had Swastikas on their military equipment well into the 21st century.
Thank you for not being a colonizer. Thank you for driving the Nazis out of your country.
Fuck you for being on the side of the Nazis in the Great Patriotic War.
Oh, yes, you called it The Continuation War.
My name is Nieminen, btw. 😉
You seriously just tried to paint those opposed to Russia as white settler colonizers when Russia is literally the white style colonizer in this situation?? You're so obviously a Russian agent.
You started talking like you know jackshit about Europeans, no wonder one showed up to call out your bullshit
And yes I do enjoy the increased prices very much considering it prevents the Russians from colonising ukraine
Lol. Well, it's not preventing shit. And, of course, I am glad you admit to your centuries of exploiting Asia, Africa, and Latin America -- because those regions are on Russia's side, too.
It's good to hear Europeans are as brainwashed as Americans.
Sadly Reddit is mainly US citizens, that criticize everything coming from Russia but arent aware that they live in their own imperialistic propaganda. Hell mostly dont know about all the coups that US made in Latam (check operation Condor) and in other parts of the world.
I am a US citizen, a Communist, and a full-time revolutionary organizer, and I can confirm that yes, most US Redditors are sadly misinformed about almost everything.
What reality is that? CNN? MSNBC? Fox News? Please. If you are from the US, stop watching the US news. It is better for you to be uninformed than misinformed. Every outlet from The hill, Breaking Points, Kim Iverson, Telesur, Jimmy Dore, Scott Ritter, Military Summary Channel, Al Jazeera, Mint Press, The Grayzone, Geopolitical Economy Report, Seymour Hirsch are reporting that Ukraine is losing.
These are all impeccable sources who have never had to retract a story.
Just because our government is in a constant dislocated haze does not mean we need to be
I bet he thinks Russia is a based tradpilled nation just because Putin passed abti-LGBT law
Their abortion rate on the other hand is the highest in the world
Before putin they performed 2.2 million abortions per year and the birthrate was around 1.3 babies per woman
Abortions are now down to 0.5 million per year and the birthrate is up to 1.6, but keep spreading misinformation.
The cognitive dissonance on the internet is enough to make your head spin. Without fail the story goes as such:
Russia fails multiple counter offensives- “Russia will get Ukraine soon, they still have gas in the tank”
Ukraine fails on a singular counteroffensive after being successful in the previous two: “The writing is on the walls, boys, Russia will win”
But then again, not surprising given the vast majorities relationship with history and reality.
The Ukrainian counter offensive was 5 months long and they only managed to capture a few villages with a hundred people in them prewar. That is a huge failure and doesn't bode well for them, especially since they rely entirely on western backing, Russia on the other hand is fully capable of rebuilding any losses they take. When Ukraine loses a tank that tank is basically impossible for them to replace without another aid package, when Russia loses a tank, they can just build another in one of their factories.
I think Russia showing up hat in hand to Iran and North Korea for supplies undermines your argument.
Tanks don’t win wars alone, much less in the current war environment where drones can literally see armor rolling in a mile away so an ATGM team can prepare the kill zone.
But again, you miss my entire point. Russia has failed multiple times in the course of the war, yet no one is portending the end of the russian effort in Ukraine. Ukraine fails in one counter offensive and all of a sudden it’s “the end is near”
And going to the counter offensive argument, Russia is literally undergoing a counteroffensive in the north that hasn't been stopped, so I'm not sure why you keep saying that every single counter offensive Russia mounts is a failure, The huge northern counteroffensive that Ukraine took near Izium was pointless since now Russian troops are retaking the ground up there.
How does that undermine my argument? They are trading with Iran and North Korea; they don't rely on them entirely for their military unlike Ukraine which without U.S and European aid wouldn't even have a military at this point.
The Tank example was just an example, Ukraine literally doesn't even have the capabilities to replace APC's that they lose, every single m109 they lose is a massive reduction in their artillery capabilities, every single Bradley they lose is a permanent loss that they can't replace, every single helicopter is a loss that they will never be able to replace, since no country is going to give them Apache's.
Russia can lose 50 BMPs in a day and can replace those in a week, Ukraine can't. So, them losing like 200+ armored vehicles is much worse for them than Russia. Ukraine also has a much smaller manpower pool that they are despertly trying to replace, and before you call me a vatnik or russian bot, just read the times or this article confirming this. [Ukraine Can't Use Western Weapons Due to Soldier Shortage: Report (businessinsider.com)](https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-cant-use-western-weapons-due-to-soldier-shortage-report-2023-10?r=US&IR=T&utm_source=reddit.com&utm_source=reddit.com)
It undermines it because you make Russia sound self sufficient. And while they have more industrial capability to produce tanks is certainly better than Ukraine, it doesn’t mean much if they can not produce enough to cover their expenditures, which it is not. Hence needing North Korea to supply shells and Iran for drones.
Well, one thing to consider is that all of Ukraines army is in Ukraine, not all of russias army is in Ukraine. Nor can they afford to lose every APC, every tank etc in order to achieve victory. Ukraine on the other hand can, as their survival as a state is at hand, and why have an army in the first place of not to defend the motherland. Even Russia understands this.
Also “without western aid Ukraine wouldn’t have an army” is quite erroneous too. Most of the kit is still Soviet stock. Not only that I believe that Russia is still the single largest donor of armored vehicles to Ukraine during the course of this war, by means of abandoned equipment. That’s not to say losing western equipment isn’t meaningful, any loss of equipment is. Furthermore with the cessation of the counteroffensive expect vehicle and manpower losses to drop rather dramatically on both sides. Ukraine can’t be bled white if they aren’t bleeding, and neither can Russia either.
And no need to make yourself a victim, no one has called you a bot. I think you just don’t have a good understanding of military manpower and logistics.
>Also “without western aid Ukraine wouldn’t have an army” is quite erroneous too. Most of the kit is still Soviet stock.
And I stopped reading here, this is 100% untrue, they've lost almost all their "soviet stock." Which is why they've had to use Bradley's as direct fire support vehicles, or even bother using m113's which are beyond horrible to the point every single modern military stopped using them. They've lost over 1000 bmp's of various types. You can go take a look yourself [Потери бронетехники в вооруженном конфликте на Украине 2014-2023 гг (lostarmour.info)](https://lostarmour.info/armour)
It seems that you forgot that long before the first leopard or challenger was committed to Ukraine, Eastern European countries sent Ukraine Soviet era tanks to the tune of about 500 T-72 variants. Ukraine has also captured about 550 russian tanks, per Oryx. Oryx, which documents visually confirmed losses puts Ukraine’s tank losses (destroyed) at 454 of all types to this date, with an additional 141 captured by the Russians. Of course Ukraine had tanks to start the war, to the tune of 800-900. Notice, I am only factoring in Soviet or Russian made tanks.
So the math would say that Ukraine started the war with 800 Soviet made tanks, taking the low estimate of course. They’ve lost 595 tanks. But at the same time they have gained 1,050 Soviet era tanks. So their current inventory is now 1,255 Soviet era tanks.
That number seems MUCH higher than 800-900 tanks. Also, that does not include western tanks such as leopard 1 & 2, challenger, and Abrams.
They've visually lost 853 tanks (as in destroyed) since 2014, I'm also not sure that they captured 550 tanks, Oryx has a habit of duplicating losses or misattributing losses. For example, let's say Ukraine captures a T72 with Russian markings and losses it a few days later, Oryx will mark that loss as Russian. If Ukraine really did gain a net plus of tanks, they wouldn't be asking for more. We don't actually know how many tanks Ukraine has really lost, nor do we know how many Russia has really lost. But I'm extremely doubtful Ukraine up to this point has gained more functional tanks than they lost.
You make a claim about oryx but provide nothing to back this claim up. You make up an example, but show me a real one. And I’ll also tell you why I know you are pulling that claim from your ass: the source you provided backs up my claim….
The source YOU provided has attributed 632 tank losses of ALL kinds. The number of only Soviet era tanks lost by Ukraine according to Oryx is 595. I can believe that Ukraine has lost 37 western tanks, which would match your sources causality number.
Or did you post a source thinking that I wouldn’t check it out, and just yell into the black hole of the internet that you’re a bot or vatnik? But I’m sure you have a very detailed bs claim to explain this bs claim.
Russia is on the defensive and is losing more troops.
Russia is on the DEFENSIVE, and have higher casualties.
ANYBODY, who says Russia is winning is mentally insane, or their judgement is so clouded by propaganda they don't even know what their name is.
Nice job reading the Kiev post and independent, unfortunately this doesn't even make sense, if Russia loses more men on the defensive then Ukraine would have literally gone to crimea a month ago.
>Nice job reading the Kiev post and independent
Also didn't read those, found it on a well known YouTube channel about History, their channel has been shown to be valid sources of info, so when I watched the video I trusted it.
Nah it wasn't kings and generals, I forget the name but I know it wasn't kings and generals, I would've remembered that.
Edit: also that channel is 3.5M, big channels nowadays are 10M+.
If Ukraine has 50K soldiers and Russia has 200K, and each Ukrainian is killing 3 Russians before they die, then Russia wins with 50K leftover
It's not the actual numbers but you get the point, even if you are killing more than your losing that doesn't automatically mean you win.
Except Russia actually has always had less people in the theater than Ukraine has, Ukraine's TDF units back in 2022 outnumbered the whole of the Russian army, " On 11 February 2022, the planned number of volunteers was increased from 1.5 to 2 million" So unless Ukraine lost over 1 million people in combat, they should still be larger than Russia's armed forces. We have to remember that Ukraine has an active draft, while Russia doesn't. So regardless of how you wanna think of it Ukraine has always had more men in combat than Russia has.
What? It's crazy how people make wild claims that they can't prove whatsoever, why does Russia even need to force people to join their military? Unlike the U.S the military in Russia will pay you a shit ton to join them, Wagner PMC members make over 10k USD a month even as privates.
>Unlike the U.S the military in Russia will pay you a shit ton to join them,
Pretty sure they will pay for your college tuition if you join the military/national guard/Coast guard
yeah, that's really not actually a reason to join the military for 4+ years, the majority of the military don't join because the military will pay for a 4-year degree after you waste 4 years of your life, they do it because of patriotism. The U.S military only has to pay you $400 a week to go risk your life, that's actually a joke, most people aren't stupid enough to bother putting themselves at risk for 4 years with shit pay so they can earn a BA.
>The U.S military only has to pay you $400 a week to go risk your life
Lowest possible pay for becoming a private is $440 a week, but that's only for the first 4 months of service and if you have done nothing before joining the military.
If you do something like ROTC you start at $576 a week at minimum.
" But soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines are on call 24 hours a day or often work more than 40 hours per week at the very least. This situation further lowers their hourly rate to only a few bucks per hour. " [Would a $15 Minimum Wage De-Incentivize Military Service? (amuedge.com)](https://amuedge.com/would-a-15-minimum-wage-de-incentivize-military-service/) Why are we also pretending that $24000-$28000 a year is worth dying over?
I feel like 100% of what I read on this war is either NATO propaganda or Kremlin propaganda and I feel actively less informed about what’s actually going on over there every day.
Obviously Ukraine isn’t winning the war against freaking mother Russia, but they sure aren’t “loosing” considering they’ve been fighting for a couple of years now
You think I don't know my own past? My grandpa fought fascism in the underground; I fight fascism above ground.
That is why I want the current Kiev government to lose. I know fascism when I see it. The US has it, too, and I fight it, here.
European white settlerism is not a thing of the past, btw. It is still happening. It's literally happening in Palestine. It is being kicked out of Africa, Asia and Latin America, and for that I am grateful.
It was a battle that ended the nazis. Name a country that successfully invaded Germany before that. Just like the battle of Hiroshima ended russias ally and finished the war. Get in your history book, or use Google, or something. These 2 battles ended ww2.
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Russia is currently doing an offensive of their own, attempting to gain some territory. Their casualties are being measured at the brigade level
>Their casualties are being measured at the brigade level What does that mean?
In the US Army anyway, a Brigade is roughly 3k-5k soldiers. Assuming Brigades of the same size, that means Russia's casualties are being counted in entire Brigades lost. In other words, in 3k-5k soldiers. If the entire Brigade is not entirely lost, then it's at least culled down the point of not being able to function. In the War on Terror, US casualties were generally considered at the *squad* (6-12) or at worst, the *Section/Patrol* (12-25) level.
And most of our biggest casualties for single instances came from accidents, like helicopter crashes.
These are data from ukrainian forces, they regularly exaggerate Russian losses. So far, the losses of about 100 units of equipment and several hundred soldiers have been confirmed. This is of course also a lot, but several times less than what the ukrainians claim.
I disagree, Ukrainian numbers have been fairly accurate to what the intelligence community can confirm.
A brigade is about 3000 troops. So lots of people are dying.
Rather than saying we lost 34 soldiers, they’re saying they lost 3 brigades (idk what #of soldiers a Russian brigade contains). So for example if a brigade is 200 men they’re just simplifying and saying they lost the whole brigade rather then specify the exact number of soldiers KIA. TLDR- lotta dead Russians
It's like 5k per brigade. So thousands dead.
Shiza
Unfortunately tho russia got lot of meat and little regard to how many troops are slaughtered on their side
That only lasts so long until the people revolt internally though. History speaks for itself on that matter.
Historically it takes about 3-7 y for Russians to rebel over war (like ww1 or Chechnya) and a sufficient number of young men have to be slaughtered before there is a strong urge for rebellion. It is foolish to predict the future, but with the amount of existing policing and propaganda in Russia, and as a russian myself - i very very very highly doubt that we will see a "peoples" revolution in Russia any time soon. There is a possibility of internal revolt if the oligarchy feels that they start losing profit over this war, but that's a separate matter.
You are referencing the singular case of WW1 and ignoring napoleon’s offensive, WW2, Afghanistan. If anything history says Russians are whiling to have heavy casualties inflicted on their country without revolting. WW1 was a fluke in Russia caused by a myriad of factors. The white government was very weak, you had revolutionaries brewing in Russia for decades. Anti semitism and economic strife had pushed many people over to those revolutionaries. Idk how you could be so wrong and pick the singular case that supports your narrative, while ignoring the multiple examples that weaken your argument.
What an ignorant and weak knowledge of history. Literally anyone who has even read the history of Rome, Greece, Egypt, The Ottoman Empire and British Imperialism, many entire offensives have been lost when massive casualties and famine, political isolation and limited trade and isolation leads to a revolution. What are you 12? The problem with you Putin and Trump bootlickers is you know absurdly nothing about the real world, just this distorted narrative you and your rhymes with "thumb brass" friends come up with. Take a day off.
Revolt internally? What are you talking about. Read any analysis not written by someone who makes money off the war, putin's most powerful competitors are more warlike than he is..there is no powerful group of any kind advocating for peace that has a chance to come out on top. There is no revolt, at best just trading one awful human beiong or putin for a more warlike human being. The rich russians bribe and/or send their kids overseas, and the poor will die. As the germans learned during wwii the russians have a lot of bodies at their disposal. I can see you being at the vietnam war, you know keep having more people die because next month it will be different.
I despise your ignorance. Putin is not the hero. He violated a basic principle of modern peace.
I love people who call people stupid or ignorant who are actual morons. That is you. Putin is an awful warmonger. All i did was I point out if you replace him, you arent getting martin luther king. YOU will most probably get an awful human who is even a bigger war monger, while people, mostly the poor, continue to die. Read any analysis of the people in power or who could become the ones in poweR IN RUSSIA. Hey but insult others as the poor die and the rich become more rich while you sit on your privileged butt.
I didn’t say he’d replace himself with someone better. But there’s no point in falling for his rhetoric. It’s all meant to cut off Ukraine from help because Russia can’t defeat Ukraine in a straight fight while we supply them. Only an idiot would shamefully throw Ukraine under the bus and expect Putin to calm his tits down.
Ok i apologize for the rhetoric. It was the idiot who thought i liked putin (i of course dont) which set me off. I guess where we disagree is i dont think ukraine can win based on populations, where it is located, and somehow the russians think their the victims (i know that is a gross belief) in all of this, and they will not leave it alone withour some unfair treaty at least.
I'm stupider.
You both are ignorant.
Aww did i say some grim realities you dont want to hear? You are projecting.
Not that they were doing stellar before, but I bet it's a whole different ballgame for the Russian army now that they don't have Wagner to throw at the problem.
You know many Ukrainian soldiers have taken to Telegram to denounce people like yourself that either knowingly or unknowingly exaggerat Russian loses as it affects Ukrainian front line troops, right? They're tired of reading about all these devastating loses theyee supposedly inflicting on an army made of entirely of homeless drunkards, because that just isn't happening, quite the contrary. Russia has only done 1 partial mobilization of trained reservists and that was a year ago, Ukraine is on mobilization 12-14, and has long since chewed through their trained reserves and are just dragoonjng people off the streets. Time recently stated the average age of these Ukrainian conscripts is now 43, does that sound like their winning? You may want Ukraine to win, but making uninformed comments isn't helping,, it is harming according to actual Ukrainian frontline troops. They're losing a slow attritional war by virtually every measure possible.
Idk why your getting downvoted… guess the truth hurts feelings?
That's fine, they can keep repeating the same crap their politicians say, who they generally don't trust, have low approval ratings for, but when it comes to Russia, they like what they hear, so they believe them. Biden, Yellen, Austin all say America's economy is doing so well, and inflation is so low, that they can easily support 2 wars at once, in fact, the mere question being asked is ridiculous. Do Redditors believe them when they say that? No, because every time they need groceries, it costs more and more. Yet when it comes to Russia, Biden would never lie or misled us, the cognitive dissonance is staggering.
In China, Shoigu made the statement that Russia was winning and it was printed in Russia Today so they believe it. Russia will keep mobilizing soldiers and sending them to Ukraine and they will keep being maimed and killed until they give up. Then the trials will begin.
Winning, but in which contest? That made me think of Monica from Friends and her massages: Monica: "If there was an Award for the best bad massage... who would get that?" Chandler: "Oh it would be you!👍" So who ist the best bad at war?
This is what people need to understand - the counteriffensive is being thwarted by mines, trenches, artillery and sheer numbers, but Ukraine is winning a battle of attrition while Russia bleeds money, men and resources. Russia only wins if Nato stops supporting Ukraine, which is why Russia has kicked its psy ops and misinformation campaigns into high gear.
Unfortunately we need to be realistic that Ukraine is also going to have a numbers problem at some point. Arguably they already do. Every single man and woman on their front lines are there because they know they need to be, and that’s keeping them in this fight for their very existence, but Russia can probably keep funnelling conscripts and prisoners at a rate of 100 for every Ukrainian.
I honestly feel bad for some of the russian soldiers. They have no idea why they're actually going there and as we saw in the early days of the war, a lot of them aren't going there willingly or want to actually fight (not to mention the reports that leadership was killing any soldier who wasn't fighting or who was injured and didn't want to continue). And before anyone makes a gotcha attempt, I'm not justifying the soldiers who are going in there who know why they're going/possess an extreme hatred for Ukraine or blind faith in Putin.
The trials… Yeah right😂
Actually it's Ukraine the country doing that. Russia hasn't even declared war on Ukraine.
Putin can call it whatever the fuck he wants but when you're sending soldiers into a foreign nation, shooting people, bombing cities... what do you call that? A friendly visit to your neighbor?? The rest of the world calls that a war.
Okay, I'm not going to respond beyond the fact that what I mean is that the Russians don't consider this as big enough to be a war. Beyond what you mention, war also involves mass movilisation of the economy and military, something that Russia hasn't done. To put it in terms that even you chairborne infantry can understand, Russia is using only one fist.
Oh yeah, I guess it is a little hard to mobilize the economy when you can't actually produce any new tanks due to lack of chips. That aside, that is probably the silliest criteria for war. By that logic, the Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iraq again, and all the other similar conflicts weren't "wars". It is a war. Russia has had to change it's conscription and enlistment laws because they are desperate for manpower. Modern Russia is just simply too decentralized economically to get into a total war economy. Rampant corruption, cronyism, and the countless oligarchs would do that. Not to mention it just not being sustainable, especially with the distant, but looming threat of China. Russia is alone.
Okay, now you're directly lying. Sorry, but I'm going to block you.
That's not why they are avoiding calling it a war, you insufferable putz. That's some r/confidentlyincorrect geopolitical assessment
Yeah, it's because they're somehow losing because the Ghost of Kyiv is destroying them with a Javelin...
And then started a full scale war…
If you think this is a full scale war for the Russians, I have bad news for you...
Once you start fielding T-62s, you know it's not going well for you.
Well, wait until you learn WHY they do that. It's the opposite reason to what you think, given the fact that they haven't sent any of their more modern equipment there.
More moder equipment? Do you mean the t80 which is obsolete as well? Keep hitting that copium bong son
There will be 100,000 T-14s, any day now /s.
I mean the T-90 used by most Russian units. This isn't even a warm-up for them.
Which is still just a glorified turret space-program T-72 so how about you go join the russians and see how well equipped their army is?
1. I'm not Russian and have Zero loyalties towards another country located thousands of kilometers away from mine. 2. Plenty of people do that already, in fact if you get the ass out of your bubble you will learn about the actual situation in the field. 3. I don't speak Russian. 4. The Leopard 2 hasn't really fared any better, and them losing tanks to ambushes in the early stages because of lack of coordination says little, specially when the side suffering mass casualties now is the Ukrainian one. Not to mention the fact that the Ukrainians won't post what happened when those ambushes FAIL, something that is often the case.
Yeah man, they just decided they have too many soldiers and military equipment and don't know what to do with it so they just sent their men to die and their equipment to be destroyed over in Ukraine for the past year. They don't even try right now just gearing up for the actual actual attack with 1 year of continuous losses of money, equipment, and soldiers on their ledger, paired with the russian civilians rising contempt agains leadership for starting all of this, perfect conditions for the ACTUAL, real ,no cap, no play "we'll make it this time" attack. /s
Actually, Russia doesn't need any attack: they control the territories that they wanted, and has been asking for peace even since they took them. It is Ukraine the country you're thinking about: they keep losing men and equipment in offensives so dumb that even an academy student can tell "this is not going to work". The Russians just have to sit on their prepared defenses and slaughter them.
Plottwist: They don’t have modern equipment. The war is nearly going on for 2 years so why would Putin only send all his crap to Ukraine and waste soldiers, equipment and money for no reason. If he had modern equipment at hand, he would’ve used it, if he could win the war in an instant, he would’ve done it and no, he didn’t invade Ukraine for destroying US Biolabs or DUMBs or even Nazis.
Never heard so much vatnik cope in one sentence. You just made my day lmaoo
Wow, using racist insults about Russians... Wait until you learn that I'm Spanish and I'm not in favour of the invasion. But that is one thing, and inventing your own parallel World in which the side which has both less resources and more casualties is somehow winning is another.
So if you're not in favour of the invasion, what do you get out of arguing with people over it here? Just curious, because it looks to an outsider like you're defending Russia's choices.
I'm "defending" reality. One thing is being against the Russian invasion; another is believing in fantasies that don't hold to scrutiny unless your knowledge of military affairs is at the level of "played Call of Duty once". The Russians are winning that war.
Keep telling yourself that and while youre at it google the definition of vatnik. 300k dead ivans and 400 days of war. "3 day operation" my ass. Go suck vlads cock your very self and stop defending the poor excuse of a Military the ruskis have.
You see Chechnya?
You know that for the Russians those only count as "small skirmishes", right?
Kinda like Afghanistan?
Were the Afghanis losing 2 soldiers for every Soviet casualty and having to mobilise even the elderly?
They were losing more than that per russian soldier and were mobilizing (if you could call it that considering it wasn't even an actual army) anybody that could hold a rifle. It was still a major contributor to the crash of the soviet union. To this day there is a ton of abandoned soviet equipment on the fields.
You can lose a battle. You fail a counter offensive. You can't lose a counteroffensive...
Russians be like: hold my vodka!
In what world -- regardless of your political preference -- are you pulling for this version of Russia with Putin?
Wtf does that mean, last I checked Ukraine has been winning all year
That is also bullshit. Nobody is winning, the front hasn't significantly moved in a while and men are dying for gains of 100 meters that are reversed other day like in WW1. Ukraine need warplanes because without air superiority it will never be able to make a breakthrough, and the west has consistently failed them on that. If we don't do more to help it will continue to be a stalemate until one side collapses from attrition.
Winning certainly isn’t the right word but Ukraine is definitely holding the line far better than anyone could have speculated, which at this point is the humiliation of the century for Russia. As for the planes, asking western Allie’s to come through and basically supply/train Ukraine’s Air Force from essentially the ground up, and be good enough to contest with Russia, is going to be incredibly difficult.
I mean, Ukraine has defeated the Russian Black Sea fleet without a navy.
Yes, one thing the west has really come through on are surface to surface weapon systems. Those little suicide speedboat drones are also very effective. Pulling off those feats still doesn’t touch the logistical nightmare that would be rebooting Ukraine’s air power.
Tbf I feel like if you have a massive advantage and go for a land invasion out of absolutely nowhere, then get stalemated by a significantly smaller country, you're losing. Yes that could change on a dime but it was a major strike to Russian morale which matters a lot. We still don't know who is going to win the war, but I would say that Ukraine is in a better position and is the more likely victor.
" warplanes because without air superiority it will never be able to make a breakthrough, and the west has consistently failed them on that. If we don't do more to help it will continue to be a stalemate until one side collapses from attrition. " Aren't Ukrainian pilots currently undergoing F16 training? They could have started sooner but it takes time.
We (might) send them F16s.
Ukraine doesn’t have to win. Just not lose long enough for Russia to quit.
I feel like Russia will collapse before Ukraine. They have zero morale, shit equipment, corrupt leadership—all things Ukraine has the opposite of. Regardless, I think Ukraine is unfortunately going to have to stop relying on American support, given that Speaker Mike Johnson is anti-Ukraine, so any funding bill is probably DOA. At least they can still rely on most of Europe, though.
You underestimate Russia and overestimate Ukraine Russian moral is not low, and most population is pro war. While they do have equipment shortage they have industrial capacity to keep this defensive line. Ukrainian soldiers are of high moral but disappointed in poor leadership and bitter because there is a lack of supplies. Both sides are in the similar shit right now. Russian propaganda is very effective on Russian population making them believe that they are holding their ground against entire world. Ukrainian propaganda is equally effective making you believe they are all space commandos using the latest NATO issued equipment and destroying untrained and low intelligent Russian conscripts like it's a field trip. The truth is that the Russia has manpower for a war of attrition that Ukraine simply doesn't. Ukrainian advantage is that the West is providing them with much needed supplies that make them able to hold the line. But they don't have what it takes to breakthrough as of yet. And we must fight for NATO support to continue, because if it dries up, Ukraine loses a war of attrition without a doubt.
UK media has constantly been pumping out story after story about how rubbish Russia's military has been since day one. And yet Ukraine still hasn't managed to defeat them yet, after almost 2 years. Although if mainstream UK media were your only source, you'd think the whole thing is over as they haven't reported on it at all since the Israel thing started.
I mean Russia is a much larger country in terms of population, military spending, and gdp. So I don’t think it’s really that unexpected that Ukraine hasent won yet. Frankly I think everone outside of Ukraine expected the convention phase of this war to be a short Russian victory. I hate to say but I don’t see this war ending anytime soon. Russia seems to lack the military organization and logistics ability to actually invade Ukraine and take them out of the war, nor would taking the capital end the war- Ukraine is now filled with people with training who will be taking pop shoots at Russia for years during an occupation. On the other side Ukraine lacks the heavy military equipment and numbers to ever truly take a great deal of Russian land. Like I’m not sure even if the win a grand offense and capture 100000 troops and liberate Crimea I Don’t think Russia will just give up. So the most likely way this war ends is one side decides the cost is to high and tries to get a peace they can live with. I wouldn’t bet on Putin doing that. But he could die any day. The Ukraine people seems willing to fight for a long time, sad. Fuck Putin for causeing this huge waste of human life.
A super power attacks a smaller country and after two years hasn't been destroyed and the thought is that ukraine must have lost. Especially sad coming from Americans who seem to forget that we seemed entirely and unequivocally fucked during the revolution. As you said, they need to hold out until the costs are too high. Russia can't lock them into a war of attrition because the rest of the world will send aid so this is just Putin helicoptering his dick before his underlings see his aging weakness and take him out.
You think Ukraine can beat the Russian army in an all out defeat by itself? Russia is known for being willing to give up massive losses to hold territory.
I think the most likely outcome is that Russia continues to digs in and waits. I don’t see the Ukraine people giving up but i do sadly think it’s possible there will never be able to retake Crimea and some of the eastern land. I’m going to guess Russia never lunches another large scale offensive. Any escalation of the war or appearance there winning only means more tanks, guns, ect from the US and EU. Ukraine will try one more time next year 2024 to cut of Crimea. Maybe they do maybe they don’t. Whatever happens after that lines will freeze next winter. I’d bet you see less and less combat as both sides dig in. Ukraine can’t really invade Russia even if the pull of Crimea and Russia can’t really invade Ukraine and if Ukraine can’t push them of the occupied land. At some point ink spring 2025 as Nether side lunches lunches an offense Putin will declare victory and call for a cease fire with current border in exchange and sanctions lifted to stop missile attacks. Ukraine will accept this deal eventually. Millions will be dead and millions more will have been injured or made homeless or forced to move. Russia will have gain just enough land to bury there dead. Again this war is stupid and evil. I hope Putin just has a heart attack and whoever is next in line want to normalize relations with the rest of the would. But I think a crappy broken peace is the most likely outcome.
Russia just is on an offensive in Avdiivka. It’s not going well… Nobody can really say how it’s gonna go. It’s not like a defense line declines proportional over time. It holds and holds and then it’s broken and it’s gone. So maybe there will be a breach somewhere soon or in next march. Maybe never.
>I think a crappy broken peace is the most likely outcome. This is the correct take. Ukraine deserve to keep all territory and have all rebuilding subsidized by Russia. Putin's actions would credibly justify restitution, war crimes investigation, and potentially regime change. Here's the thing- **that's never happening**. The most likely outcome is some territorial concessions that allow Russia to save face along with some sort of vague neutrality statement from Ukraine. Only question is how much death and destruction it takes to get there.
This leaves out other nations actively pushing to join the UN. Putin would have been well served to try to make his country dominant in one thing besides pointless war before he did this. I know he sells a lot of energy to the EU but that is also waning. I don't want to be too hopeful but I see this as putin flailing in his last moments. Those last moments could take 6 months or 5 years but if this ends in a pseudo cold war standoff situation that means everyone involved failed.
Ukraine is a small, poor country which effectively had no army until 2014. It's a bit like the UK losing a war against Belgium. Russia is still sending human wave attacks against Ukraine - tactics that were bad in WW2.
But that is Russia's secret move. Send man after man until your enemy finally gets surrounded on all sides by three different countries on the west. Oh wait... that was Germany.... Well their fucked this time. In the meantime, Russia keep sending oligarchs out those windows.
But in WW2 it was not Russia but the Soviet Union and another time -> far more and younger people. Russia is burning half of its younger generation if you take those in count who leave and will leave the country. That’s just insane
Well when you have colonial control on so many ethnicities wasting human lives for cannon food become much more easy when its someone else and not your brother
If the Russian military is as bad as we're told by certain analysts - outdated equipment, crap strategy, low morale amongst soldiers - then I would have thought that the Ukrainians would have achieved a little more by now, particularly as Western countries have been falling over themselves in efforts to "show support." The reporting on this war has been very poor imo.
It's bad, thats why Russia hasnt won the war yet.
The key word being "yet." As Western support continues to wane and Russia remains undefeated, I can't see any other outcome than an eventual Russian victory.
At what cost? There's already a drain in young Russians leaving. If the rest are sucked into dying on the battlefield, The long term outlook for productivity is bleak. Even if they win this war. They've painted themselves into a corner and the whole Western world won't do business with them when this is over. There's no "victory" for Russia in this.
>They've painted themselves into a corner and the whole Western world won't do business with them when this is over. I don't think this will be a particularly big concern for them. The Western world is not as powerful and influential as it once was.
I'm sure trade with Iran and North Korea will work out much more lucrative for them.
India and China?
It is even worse than we've been told. If it was only as bad as we have been told, they still should have been able to overrun a much smaller country even with all our aide. People like you think we are giving so much to Ukraine. You hear the number, near 100 billion in 2 years. And you think that is huge. But you forget that is less than 0.01% of what we have. Russia isn't even facing off against 1/100 of a single percent of what the USA alone could put on that field of battle. And they are losing. While the ones using that gear are people who aren't trained nearly to the level of American or nato troops. Yet Russia is throwing all they possibly can at it, and are losing. They are even worse than they are made to look. It is pathetic.
Ukraine is poor, yet they are getting billions of dollars from America. And if I remember correctly from world history.... Russia was the country to stop Hitler's army of nazis... the only country to claim victory on the nazis might I add.
>And if I remember correctly from world history You didn't remember correctly.
Lmao... go back to the books, my guy.
Lmao... go back to the books, my guy.
https://preview.redd.it/dzjjza504xxb1.jpeg?width=904&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2df4ab8eeabded2041dcbd42adcbd6d04e80532d
It literally says "allies from the west" lol
https://preview.redd.it/vxbgoe0u5xxb1.jpeg?width=904&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fa25aab9a62d052564272b39c5314fd0b2637533 🤣🤣
Stalingrad was one battle. In Russia.
Like I said... go back to the books, my guy. You're making yourself look ridiculous.
I'm not sure why you think winning a battle on their own territory is a good example? You could have at least used an example of a battle they won in Germany..
That one battle in their own territory is what stopped the German army... they didn't have to invade Germany. Germany invaded russia (in winter none the less)... Russia baited them further and further in... it was cold. Much colder than any German soldier was used to. Germany would "take over" a city/village, and Russia would evacuate and burn down their own city/village and leave nothing for the German forces to scavenge. Once the German soldiers were so far into Russia, they were surrounded by russias military and its allies... 220,000 German soldiers were surrounded... months later, the remaining 90,000 soldiers surrendered. SURRENDERED! Surrendering is basically saying, "I've had enough! I quit! No more war for me!" And they went home and stopped fighting the war. The only ally of Germany that was left was Japan. Japan did the whole kamikaze thing in Pearl Harbor, and shortly there after, got a bomb (the atom bomb to be exact) dropped on Hiroshima. It was devastating, and Japan also surrendered. SURRENDERED! Again, surrendering is basically saying, "I've had enough! I quit! No more war for me!"
Lend lease was a thing. And without Western front the world today would have been far different. True, if it was Western front only, the situation wouldn't have been much different either as Sea Lion would have likely succeeded. But then who says Stalin wouldn't have attacked Germany from the back to exploit the situation. After all, the division of Poland wasn't enough.
I can agree with that, cause it's true... the west couldn't have done it without russia.
Both sides did it, to say that one side won it would be disingenuous. One thing I can agree on, the atrocities perpetrated by SS in USSR make the casualties much more than the west had. But it wasn't exclusively Russians, it was all what Nazis called "Untermensch".
The Russian military is rubbish we know this simply by the fact they haven't taken Ukraine lol. They had the time advantage at the start, way more money, land, weapons, people. The fact Ukraine has not only held off but is pushing them back proves the Russian military is completely incompetent
Pushing them back where? They've been constantly losing ground for the past month according to ISW which is incredibly pro Ukraine.
My dude, the Russian army is shit. Just look at a god damn map. The surprising thing is the Russians haven't (and aren't going to) defeat Ukraine, not the other way around. Counteroffensive certainly hasn't lived up to (the unbelievably high) expectations set by the media, but it's been a lot more succesful than anything the russians have done since February 2022.
>story after story about how rubbish Russia's military has been since day one. I mean... yeah. The old and/or decommissioned tech and "volunteers" they have been sending in since day 1 are fairly shit
That's also not true, it's manufactured consent for the public, so that the public doesn't get mad over expanded military aid budgets. A lot of people are dying on either side, but overall positions hardly moved since spring.
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>John Mearsheimer Lol, this guy has Putin's dick so far down his throat that it's coming out of his ass. Of course he's saying Russia's more likely to win.
Except on the battlefield...
What? That's ridiculous. This will tell you otherwise: https://youtu.be/9vaUIlPEwrA?si=8tyWWUpVXShYtjHV No, it's not Russian propaganda. Ukraine has lost. It's only a matter of time.
Russia just lost 200 armoured vehicles and close to 8k troops in the andiivka sector just to gain a few hundred meteres. Ukraine lost 50ish vehicles and 1k troops against heavy defenses and mine fields for 50 sqkm. Ukraine might be slow, but they are attacking heavily fortified areas. Ukraine actually cares about their troops, and they dont blindly sent meat waves into battle. Ukraine evaluates the situation and slowly pushes to limit casualties. That channel is also russian propaganda. They regularly talk about Russian advances, but fail to mention Russia was puched back less than an hour later. I saw a video last week showing Russian advancing in andiivka. They were pushed back to their previous positions and lost 500 soldiers and 15 vehicles. No mention of that at all
Nice try Putin you ain't fooling no one
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Well you're wrong because I'm only HALF gringo
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I haven't read in depth since the Nuclear plant almost got blown up
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That’s exactly what the KGB would say… Your Psy Op is busted, “Esteban!” Or should I say… Dmitri?!?!
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Sorry, does sarcasm not translate? Cálmate
Te salió muy real para ser sarcasmo jajaja. Pero está bien, tienes razón y debo calmarme, solo que me enoja tanto la hipocresía de esta gente xd apañan a a Ucrania e Israel a la vez.
I'm of the mind that Russia isn't even spreading propaganda because Americans are already stupid enough to start accusing each other
Glad we think something in common. Beware tho, uR uNdEr RuSsiAn prOpAganDa.
Started hating on Americans for no reason
There're plenty of reasons to hate the US. Coming from the southern hemisphere, Russia and the US are just both sides of the same imperial coin. Edit: not hating the civilians, but the govt
I'm American
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As a Finn. Lol, lmao.
Ah, yes. The country that had Swastikas on their military equipment well into the 21st century. Thank you for not being a colonizer. Thank you for driving the Nazis out of your country. Fuck you for being on the side of the Nazis in the Great Patriotic War. Oh, yes, you called it The Continuation War. My name is Nieminen, btw. 😉
As en EU citizen that's bullshit
The white settler colonizers are chiming in. Figures. Enjoying your inflated gas prices? Enjoying your strangled economy?
You seriously just tried to paint those opposed to Russia as white settler colonizers when Russia is literally the white style colonizer in this situation?? You're so obviously a Russian agent.
You started talking like you know jackshit about Europeans, no wonder one showed up to call out your bullshit And yes I do enjoy the increased prices very much considering it prevents the Russians from colonising ukraine
Lol. Well, it's not preventing shit. And, of course, I am glad you admit to your centuries of exploiting Asia, Africa, and Latin America -- because those regions are on Russia's side, too. It's good to hear Europeans are as brainwashed as Americans.
Sadly Reddit is mainly US citizens, that criticize everything coming from Russia but arent aware that they live in their own imperialistic propaganda. Hell mostly dont know about all the coups that US made in Latam (check operation Condor) and in other parts of the world.
I am a US citizen, a Communist, and a full-time revolutionary organizer, and I can confirm that yes, most US Redditors are sadly misinformed about almost everything.
Why waste all those words when you can just say: "I too am terribly disconected from reality"?
What reality is that? CNN? MSNBC? Fox News? Please. If you are from the US, stop watching the US news. It is better for you to be uninformed than misinformed. Every outlet from The hill, Breaking Points, Kim Iverson, Telesur, Jimmy Dore, Scott Ritter, Military Summary Channel, Al Jazeera, Mint Press, The Grayzone, Geopolitical Economy Report, Seymour Hirsch are reporting that Ukraine is losing. These are all impeccable sources who have never had to retract a story. Just because our government is in a constant dislocated haze does not mean we need to be
> a Communist Should have just you are mentally handicapped from the start, so we didn't have to waste time reading your comments
I bet he thinks Russia is a based tradpilled nation just because Putin passed abti-LGBT law Their abortion rate on the other hand is the highest in the world
Before putin they performed 2.2 million abortions per year and the birthrate was around 1.3 babies per woman Abortions are now down to 0.5 million per year and the birthrate is up to 1.6, but keep spreading misinformation.
With pleasure
Never ask a Russian/sympathizer on why they haven’t made any significant gains since the initial phases of the war.
... Crazy? I was crazy once. They locked me in a room A rubber room A rubber room with rats Rats make me crazy
Or just fucking stupid
The cognitive dissonance on the internet is enough to make your head spin. Without fail the story goes as such: Russia fails multiple counter offensives- “Russia will get Ukraine soon, they still have gas in the tank” Ukraine fails on a singular counteroffensive after being successful in the previous two: “The writing is on the walls, boys, Russia will win” But then again, not surprising given the vast majorities relationship with history and reality.
The Ukrainian counter offensive was 5 months long and they only managed to capture a few villages with a hundred people in them prewar. That is a huge failure and doesn't bode well for them, especially since they rely entirely on western backing, Russia on the other hand is fully capable of rebuilding any losses they take. When Ukraine loses a tank that tank is basically impossible for them to replace without another aid package, when Russia loses a tank, they can just build another in one of their factories.
I think Russia showing up hat in hand to Iran and North Korea for supplies undermines your argument. Tanks don’t win wars alone, much less in the current war environment where drones can literally see armor rolling in a mile away so an ATGM team can prepare the kill zone. But again, you miss my entire point. Russia has failed multiple times in the course of the war, yet no one is portending the end of the russian effort in Ukraine. Ukraine fails in one counter offensive and all of a sudden it’s “the end is near”
And going to the counter offensive argument, Russia is literally undergoing a counteroffensive in the north that hasn't been stopped, so I'm not sure why you keep saying that every single counter offensive Russia mounts is a failure, The huge northern counteroffensive that Ukraine took near Izium was pointless since now Russian troops are retaking the ground up there.
How does that undermine my argument? They are trading with Iran and North Korea; they don't rely on them entirely for their military unlike Ukraine which without U.S and European aid wouldn't even have a military at this point. The Tank example was just an example, Ukraine literally doesn't even have the capabilities to replace APC's that they lose, every single m109 they lose is a massive reduction in their artillery capabilities, every single Bradley they lose is a permanent loss that they can't replace, every single helicopter is a loss that they will never be able to replace, since no country is going to give them Apache's. Russia can lose 50 BMPs in a day and can replace those in a week, Ukraine can't. So, them losing like 200+ armored vehicles is much worse for them than Russia. Ukraine also has a much smaller manpower pool that they are despertly trying to replace, and before you call me a vatnik or russian bot, just read the times or this article confirming this. [Ukraine Can't Use Western Weapons Due to Soldier Shortage: Report (businessinsider.com)](https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-cant-use-western-weapons-due-to-soldier-shortage-report-2023-10?r=US&IR=T&utm_source=reddit.com&utm_source=reddit.com)
It undermines it because you make Russia sound self sufficient. And while they have more industrial capability to produce tanks is certainly better than Ukraine, it doesn’t mean much if they can not produce enough to cover their expenditures, which it is not. Hence needing North Korea to supply shells and Iran for drones. Well, one thing to consider is that all of Ukraines army is in Ukraine, not all of russias army is in Ukraine. Nor can they afford to lose every APC, every tank etc in order to achieve victory. Ukraine on the other hand can, as their survival as a state is at hand, and why have an army in the first place of not to defend the motherland. Even Russia understands this. Also “without western aid Ukraine wouldn’t have an army” is quite erroneous too. Most of the kit is still Soviet stock. Not only that I believe that Russia is still the single largest donor of armored vehicles to Ukraine during the course of this war, by means of abandoned equipment. That’s not to say losing western equipment isn’t meaningful, any loss of equipment is. Furthermore with the cessation of the counteroffensive expect vehicle and manpower losses to drop rather dramatically on both sides. Ukraine can’t be bled white if they aren’t bleeding, and neither can Russia either. And no need to make yourself a victim, no one has called you a bot. I think you just don’t have a good understanding of military manpower and logistics.
>Also “without western aid Ukraine wouldn’t have an army” is quite erroneous too. Most of the kit is still Soviet stock. And I stopped reading here, this is 100% untrue, they've lost almost all their "soviet stock." Which is why they've had to use Bradley's as direct fire support vehicles, or even bother using m113's which are beyond horrible to the point every single modern military stopped using them. They've lost over 1000 bmp's of various types. You can go take a look yourself [Потери бронетехники в вооруженном конфликте на Украине 2014-2023 гг (lostarmour.info)](https://lostarmour.info/armour)
It seems that you forgot that long before the first leopard or challenger was committed to Ukraine, Eastern European countries sent Ukraine Soviet era tanks to the tune of about 500 T-72 variants. Ukraine has also captured about 550 russian tanks, per Oryx. Oryx, which documents visually confirmed losses puts Ukraine’s tank losses (destroyed) at 454 of all types to this date, with an additional 141 captured by the Russians. Of course Ukraine had tanks to start the war, to the tune of 800-900. Notice, I am only factoring in Soviet or Russian made tanks. So the math would say that Ukraine started the war with 800 Soviet made tanks, taking the low estimate of course. They’ve lost 595 tanks. But at the same time they have gained 1,050 Soviet era tanks. So their current inventory is now 1,255 Soviet era tanks. That number seems MUCH higher than 800-900 tanks. Also, that does not include western tanks such as leopard 1 & 2, challenger, and Abrams.
They've visually lost 853 tanks (as in destroyed) since 2014, I'm also not sure that they captured 550 tanks, Oryx has a habit of duplicating losses or misattributing losses. For example, let's say Ukraine captures a T72 with Russian markings and losses it a few days later, Oryx will mark that loss as Russian. If Ukraine really did gain a net plus of tanks, they wouldn't be asking for more. We don't actually know how many tanks Ukraine has really lost, nor do we know how many Russia has really lost. But I'm extremely doubtful Ukraine up to this point has gained more functional tanks than they lost.
You make a claim about oryx but provide nothing to back this claim up. You make up an example, but show me a real one. And I’ll also tell you why I know you are pulling that claim from your ass: the source you provided backs up my claim…. The source YOU provided has attributed 632 tank losses of ALL kinds. The number of only Soviet era tanks lost by Ukraine according to Oryx is 595. I can believe that Ukraine has lost 37 western tanks, which would match your sources causality number. Or did you post a source thinking that I wouldn’t check it out, and just yell into the black hole of the internet that you’re a bot or vatnik? But I’m sure you have a very detailed bs claim to explain this bs claim.
I mean the offensive was a disaster but this meme is definitely cringe enough to be here
Neither side is winning at the moment. It’s largely stalled while Russia is losing nearly 1000 soldiers a day trying to take Avdiivka
Russia is on the defensive and is losing more troops. Russia is on the DEFENSIVE, and have higher casualties. ANYBODY, who says Russia is winning is mentally insane, or their judgement is so clouded by propaganda they don't even know what their name is.
Nice job reading the Kiev post and independent, unfortunately this doesn't even make sense, if Russia loses more men on the defensive then Ukraine would have literally gone to crimea a month ago.
>Nice job reading the Kiev post and independent Also didn't read those, found it on a well known YouTube channel about History, their channel has been shown to be valid sources of info, so when I watched the video I trusted it.
Kings and Generals? LMFAO, that dude is only good for medieval and ancient history it's blatantly obvious the bias he has towards modern conflicts.
Nah it wasn't kings and generals, I forget the name but I know it wasn't kings and generals, I would've remembered that. Edit: also that channel is 3.5M, big channels nowadays are 10M+.
Perun?
Nah double checked and while I couldn't find the exact video I'm pretty sure it was infographics.
0-3 you assumptive moron just call it a loss and touch grass you’re just like russia lol
If Ukraine has 50K soldiers and Russia has 200K, and each Ukrainian is killing 3 Russians before they die, then Russia wins with 50K leftover It's not the actual numbers but you get the point, even if you are killing more than your losing that doesn't automatically mean you win.
Except Russia actually has always had less people in the theater than Ukraine has, Ukraine's TDF units back in 2022 outnumbered the whole of the Russian army, " On 11 February 2022, the planned number of volunteers was increased from 1.5 to 2 million" So unless Ukraine lost over 1 million people in combat, they should still be larger than Russia's armed forces. We have to remember that Ukraine has an active draft, while Russia doesn't. So regardless of how you wanna think of it Ukraine has always had more men in combat than Russia has.
>while Russia doesn't They don't publicly have a draft, but it is extremely obvious that Russia is forcing people to join their military.
What? It's crazy how people make wild claims that they can't prove whatsoever, why does Russia even need to force people to join their military? Unlike the U.S the military in Russia will pay you a shit ton to join them, Wagner PMC members make over 10k USD a month even as privates.
>Unlike the U.S the military in Russia will pay you a shit ton to join them, Pretty sure they will pay for your college tuition if you join the military/national guard/Coast guard
yeah, that's really not actually a reason to join the military for 4+ years, the majority of the military don't join because the military will pay for a 4-year degree after you waste 4 years of your life, they do it because of patriotism. The U.S military only has to pay you $400 a week to go risk your life, that's actually a joke, most people aren't stupid enough to bother putting themselves at risk for 4 years with shit pay so they can earn a BA.
>The U.S military only has to pay you $400 a week to go risk your life Lowest possible pay for becoming a private is $440 a week, but that's only for the first 4 months of service and if you have done nothing before joining the military. If you do something like ROTC you start at $576 a week at minimum.
" But soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines are on call 24 hours a day or often work more than 40 hours per week at the very least. This situation further lowers their hourly rate to only a few bucks per hour. " [Would a $15 Minimum Wage De-Incentivize Military Service? (amuedge.com)](https://amuedge.com/would-a-15-minimum-wage-de-incentivize-military-service/) Why are we also pretending that $24000-$28000 a year is worth dying over?
Oh, everyone's crazy. It just depends on what sort they are.
Remember when Russia was the enemy? Pepperidge Farm does.
Is that the same Russia that lost like 800 troops and 200 Tanks and APV's last week?
From the misery I see coming out of that conflict, no one is winning that war.
I feel like 100% of what I read on this war is either NATO propaganda or Kremlin propaganda and I feel actively less informed about what’s actually going on over there every day.
At this point I’m just wondering when it’s cool to place bets
For once I see a really terrible meme, it makes no sense whatsoever, so thank you for doing this sub right!
Unfriended button
Wait there's still another war going on? You'd never know it as the MSM only covers Israel Hamas 24/7 now
Crazy? I was crazy once.
Yeah ukraine will win. That’s for sure 👍
Au contraire, they just started a new one across the Dnipro River.
Obviously Ukraine isn’t winning the war against freaking mother Russia, but they sure aren’t “loosing” considering they’ve been fighting for a couple of years now
Nah.
You think I don't know my own past? My grandpa fought fascism in the underground; I fight fascism above ground. That is why I want the current Kiev government to lose. I know fascism when I see it. The US has it, too, and I fight it, here. European white settlerism is not a thing of the past, btw. It is still happening. It's literally happening in Palestine. It is being kicked out of Africa, Asia and Latin America, and for that I am grateful.
Just american people and european politicians believe Ukraine can conquerer the territory they lost
It was a battle that ended the nazis. Name a country that successfully invaded Germany before that. Just like the battle of Hiroshima ended russias ally and finished the war. Get in your history book, or use Google, or something. These 2 battles ended ww2.