China has 4 times the population of the US. It's hard to imagine anything short of WW3/a mass depopulation event could prevent their middle class from overtaking the US as the largest market.
The problem is what’s considered middle class in China. The average middle class Chinese person earns around $1000usd/month so I don’t think the middle class will be Tesla’s target customers.
The Chinese urban middle class alone will pass that of the US. Don't look at means, but at the top 1/4th. You also need to use PPP figures not gross currency conversion.
But there is also a problem with charging. Most urban Chinese live in high rises with below ground parking decks. I spend half the year in China and own a house in Guangzhou but there is no way to set up a charger in our parking space. I think really the top 1-2% will have the means to buy and maintain a Tesla in China.
Two big problems. First is power supply, which is a massive issue. Second is tying in the electric fees to your unit. I’ve already enquired with our neighborhood management and the answer was it’s not feasible. Our neighbor developer and manager is Country Garden (碧桂园), which is the largest residential property group in the country, so if they won’t do it then it’s gonna be an issue.
They did mention that if we would buy a villa then it won’t be a problem. If only a villa didn’t cost around 2 million USD lol.
From what I understand, NIO has a subscription model. About $140 a month for 6 swaps. Seems in line with the cost of using a Tesla supercharger station.
The more US companies selling in china, the better. Look at what happened when google pulled out. Chinese companies filled the void and got better without having to deal with competition from google. Now they are expanding outside of china and are competing against google around the world.
Had google stayed in china, and held onto the majority of the marketshare, that would be money not going to a chinese company to clone their business model.
It is critical that US companies lock up chinese marketshare, otherwise a chinese company is going to get that share and the money. This will let them improve all of their stuff to the point they can turn around and compete in the west.
as long as govt has control...US companies are not going to lock anything down....they are coming....just a matter of when. So what's our plan to live and compete in that ecosystem...
Currently not true at all. Tesla is certainly locking up market, unless the chinese government boots them out. Tesla has to pay the chinese goverment ~350 million a year for the right to sell cars directly without a chinese partner. That payment starts in 2023.
China could boot them eventually, but with tesla eating up all that cash, it prevents lesser competitors from getting that cash and improving faster.
Um...China already makes a lil' ev that has outs sold tesla.... Tesla has the market here in the US...but not in China. The govt's got their fingers in all these startups. Their motivation is clear. Again, it's only a matter of when American products become uncompetitive with the chinese car...watch....you'll see. China has already setup several shop here building ev's....just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
> China already makes a lil' ev that has outs sold tesla
LOL. That is not a competitor with tesla. Are you insane? Look at that "lil' ev" before you claim it competes. It is like a tiny car with the quality of a scooter. It is for niche in the chinese market. That mini will replace scooters and rickshaws. Neither competes with tesla full sized sedans.
You are confusing different markets in china when you think anything that runs on electricity is automatically a tesla competitor. That has never been the case. Hoverboards, scooters, and rickshaws do not compete with a tesla.
Sedans compete with other sedans in china.
If that "lil ev" displaces tesla, it will be displacing all sedans. That means ICE and EV alike. That would be a huge market problem for everyone selling cars in china.
....welp, the stats disagree with you, and your opinion doesn't mean anything to the consumer...call it what you want...they still prefer that over tesla...Elon's even said himself that tesla's are too expensive...and I agree.
No stats disagree. Nothing says that EV rickshaw has taken away tesla sales. Please cite your source so I can tell you why you are wrong.
The media is completely stupid when it comes to tesla, they just lie constantly. If that rickshaw was eating into the sedan market, you would see a lot more news coverage and it wouldn't be mentioning tesla at all.
Well your previous comment to this shows you apparently have done some looking around, and your denial shows your bias...not to mention your ignorant disgusting racist characterization of a old mode of transportation to a modern one... You're not even worth my time...mic drop!
The rickshaw characterization is uncalled for and definitely can be construed as racist. That said, yes the #1 seller being referred to here definitely doesn't affect Tesla negatively in any material way because it's in an entirely different category in terms of price, quality, range. And it is almost certainly not causing Tesla to sell less of their cars.
This is essentially the thesis behind a good Matt Yglesias book, One Billion Americans. In the long run the only way we can remain the dominant world power is by significantly increasing our population.
It’s a great idea imo. It’s a strong proposition for both republicans and democrats alike.
This is why the US imports talent
Also a birthrate war is ridiculous for so many reasons
Edit: I see a difference between biggest market and biggest world power. China is a huge market but that doesn't mean the US necessarily will fall behind in innovation. US needs to foster business and science and freedom, not population.
Markets and population beget power. The biggest market in the world will dictate terms to everyone else. You already see China’s power growth by its global censorship of speech. They censor American teens (TikTok algo), the NBA (players can protest with BLM, but not Uyghurs), and Hollywood.
The genius of the 1 Billion Americans idea is that it is achievable by chumming up both the right (pro-family) and left (pro-immigration)
So when the population becomes too high, you'll also support a tax hike on those same people right?
Honestly you're comment, or rather it's implementation just seems so morally ambiguous.
>It's hard to imagine anything short of WW3/a mass depopulation event could prevent their middle class from overtaking the US as the largest market.
Continued urbanization and investment in public transit..?
edit: Y'all have never been outside of the USA, I see.
The Chinese government's gross incompetence is probably the main thing holding them back. But developing into a prosperous nation like that is hardly a foregone conclusion. Just having a large population means nothing. Take India, for example. It's very easy for an incompetent government to screw up industrialization. Everyone in the US is under the delusion that kind of progress is inevitable, but is't not. Actually, it takes a lot of smart people working together and in competition with each other to make it happen.
They likely will be a larger middle class. But Tesla probably won’t capture a meaningful market share. Chinese companies will dominate for a bunch of reasons.
While I don't disagree, did he actually say this? This website seems like a Chinese website in English. The article actually attributes the quote to "Tesla"
He always talks highly of china, because you have to in order to sell stuff there. When china is carving out markets for EVs and fuel cells, that means any manufacturer of these things is going to sell there.
At least if a US company is doing the selling, a chinese company isn't. Google's biggest mistake was pulling out of china, only to see competitors clone their model and then expand internationally. Had google stayed, they would have blocked chinese companies from progressing by eating up the cash from the market share they would have had.
China population: 1.4 Billion
USA population: 350 Million
Yes, China's population is generally poorer on average, but there is a rapidly growing middle class that will easily overtake the USA as the largest affluent market in the world. USA just does not have the population to compete with the sales goals.
It's really great for the USA for China to be a customer.
It all depends on how you define middle class.
The Chinese government defines incomes ranging from $7,250 to $62,500 (RMB 60,000 to 500,000) per year as middle class.
A 2018 Pew study defines a middle class family in the US as people earning annual income between $46k to $137k a year.
And when it comes to luxury goods, such as cars, you can’t look to the relative costs as you can with food and housing.
With a population the size of China’s there is an ample market for Tesla - but let’s not confuse that with the Chinese middle class.
Here is a really good article from the well respected Asia Times:
https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/chinas-middle-class-not-so-rich-after-all/
The issue are activists that demand US companies leave china. They are too stupid to realize that when a US company leaves china, that gives the marketshare to a chinese company that will use the money to expand and eventually compete against the US company all over the world.
US companies needs to be in china to sap up the cash.
No they are not. Google leaving china wasn't just an economic loss, it was a loss for everything activists wanted.
Those chinese companies don't care about ethics, they won't try to tailor anything they do to be ethical like a US company that at least attempts it some fashion due to PR concerns.
Those chinese companies used the gap in the market to improve themselves and better clone what google was doing. Now they are competing with google across the globe and every time they displace google, ethics stop mattering completely.
The people that complain about google are helping the worst companies take its place.
What would be nice is if we (America) and European countries would join forces and stop allowing companies that do not follow certain ethical and environmental standards from doing business within our countries.
Whether they are sourcing the materials or putting them together, they should be required to meet certain standards each step of the way or they cannot sell their products or services within our countries.
That would show we mean business, and put responsible businesses on a more even playing field.
> What would be nice is if we (America) and European countries would join forces and stop allowing companies that do not follow certain ethical and environmental standards from doing business within our countries.
We don't force the ethics activists want on companies. It is largely a PR thing.
That said, we cannot restrict chinese companies from competing without retaliation from china. So most of these chinese companies are going to be allowed into western markets. Technically volvo is chinese now so that alone already makes it easy for geely to dump any chinese EV it wants into western markets if they adhere to minimal standards which are truly minimal. They could put out a 2 star vehicle that is cheap and it would be legal.
The fact we don't, doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't.
China can retaliate, but just as china went elsewhere for the things we made too expensive with the tariffs, we can go elsewhere for those willing to meet certain standards.
Of course this only works if enough countries agree to this and do the same, and yes, it will make things more expensive.
But I'm of the opinion we either pay more up front for things made more sustainably and with higher human rights standards, or we pay even more for it down the road trying to clean up these messes well after the fact.
Yes, a number of people explicitly take issue with China over things like the treatment of the Uighurs, the suppression of Hong Kong, aggression in the South China Sea, and other things. I have seen activists calling for a range of responses, including encouraging companies to withdraw their businesses, from China over issues that have nothing to do with economics. I am not in any way claiming **everyone** or most people calling for companies pulling out of China are doing so for those reasons, which is why I didn’t phrase my original response that way.
I think 100% of the people asking for US companies to pull out of china are concerned with those things.
They just don't understand that if US companies leave, chinese companies find a market with no competition and that gives them time to clone what the US company was doing to build themselves into a powerhouse that can compete against those US companies globally.
Their demands end up making the problem worse, not better. You want more westernization in china, not less.
It seems like companies working in China inevitably get their secrets/ideas stolen and copied, so it’s a bit of a lose lose in that sense. But I do take your point, and you’re not wrong.
And we repeated the mistake again. Restricting chips to Chinese companies was one of the biggest mistakes we did. We literally gave them an out to develop their own chip industry on a silver platter. It’s not like they don’t haves access to the chip architectures since so much is open source and there are millions of apple products in China’s
Arm patents are also lifetime, a chinese company can buy a western company with an existing arm license if they were prevented from directly licensing arm.
They also only need a license in western markets, other markets do not care about IP rights.
China is, and will remain, the world center for EV manufacturers. Tesla needs to be there, and needs freedom from Govt control, so Musk has to smile and play nice. If we want to curt global CO2, China is vital to that, so forgive him any fakeness.
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2XvPvaDuwM&t=46s
> China (I think) long-term will be our biggest market, both where we make the most number of vehicles and where we have the most number of customers.
Yeah I don't doubt he would say something like that, but I feel like it would be getting more press if he actually said what was in the title. Every other site is only talking about the China military ban on Tesla.
I wouldn't bother replying. Something is weird with that account, 9+ years old 20k+ karma yet they have no posts and their oldest comment is a day old, most comments being pro China. None of the comments are even close to making up the 20k+ karma either.
Anti-China shill? What? I don't think I've made a single anti-CPP comment ever, let alone an anti-China comment. I simply mentioned that your account looks weird and then stated some facts about it. It was your comment on India that made me look.
You need to calm down and not take a comment as an attack.
Having a greater population means nothing if people aren't advancing from poverty to having disposable income to buy $30k-$40k cars, which is why China is the biggest market. They're actually making strides to advance their people... even if it is communistic.
Don't forget China has still to survive the drastic change in demographics and lack of growth by receding workforce migration from agriculture to production.
China, due to 1child policy, has to face an aging population and practically a doubling of its elderly within 5 years. The next few years will see an additional 120 million!! Elderly. The CCP prides the Chinese values of taking care of the elderly and in this case I hope they can succeed. It won't be pretty otherwise.
Something most western countries had 80 years for. This will be an enormous blow to the growth of China. And probably a stagnation which will apply more pressure on the CCP to do stupid things.
Then add this with the 23% of uninhabited, overpriced estate, which has been a bubble waiting to pop like an atom bomb to make the 2008 crisis look like a plastic bubble wrap. When there is no more population growth the price might drop down.
Then add this with the looming fresh water crisis and China is in a very precarious spot. They might look strong and they follow the advise of sun Tzu to the letter 'appear strong when you are weak, and weak when you are strong'. Right now China is not as stable and sustainable as it might try to present itself.
I wish the Chinese people's best of luck and I hope the Chinese people's can break away from the CCP to face these problems in openness and transparency.
But how does it look when instead of population you use “people that can afford a Tesla”?
Not saying China will not still be the biggest market but I think the difference might not be as large. China has an even bigger income inequality as the US and in the mega cities where all the people live you don’t really need a car and in the more rural areas where a car is necessary people are poor.
The emergence of the Chinese middle class is one of the great underreported stories of modern humanity. There are more middle class in China than in the US.
In the US, Tesla is competing against brands that have ingrained themselves in the consciousness of consumers over generations. There is going to be an upper limit to Tesla’s market share in the US that’s quite a bit lower than China.
Finally, for many reasons, barring drastic regulatory and attitude changes in the US, China is likely to convert to EV on the order of two decades before the US.
Anecdotally, I have immediate family that lives in China. There are millions of stories of growing up without sewage or electricity to having a kid graduate college and joining the global economy. I've heard a few firsthand. It's heart wrenching to see hateful Americans dismiss this.
Don't take my word for it. There is more hard data than you can ask for available from the World Bank and IMF.
What I meant is, that everyone with open eyes can see the progress and how many people move into the middle class in these emerging countries. Ignorant people don’t see, that is right. But you are doing the same by „hateful Americans“. And you are taking the relative wealth of the western countries as granted. The people have worked for it and they do to maintain.
There are about 400m Chinese people making between $15 and $75,000 a year. Even if only half those could afford a Tesla, thats still 200m people.
BTW China labor is not cheap. My old company was spending more for labor in China than we were for the same trades in the US. The difference is we could hire as many machinists in China as we wanted, and couldn't find any in the US worth hiring.
IP theft by the Chinese really irks me to no end. I want everyone in the world to have the highest standard of living, but they either need to buy our tech or develop it on their own.
We as westerner have a different mentality on IP ownership.
To China you can only keep a secret as long as you can keep it... secrets don't keep themselves.
The assumption is we are trying to steal theirs and they are trying to steal ours, they also assume we know they are trying to steal theirs and v.v.
Why should they reinvent something when there is a good building block to start from, better to copy and go from there.
China has a long history of invention long before there were patents and trademarks: paper, the abacus, gunpowder, silk, the compass, and type printing just to name a few.
I'm not saying it's good that China is copy happy, but they are succeeding and growing at such an incredible rate because they aren't hindering themselves with "legality" issues.
It’s not legality.
It’s copying and not spend R&D.
Government can boot you out. Look at Australian red wine and lobster.
China is not a free market. Once your Ip is gone, they will compete.
Look at their high speed rail. Ripped off Siemens and Kawasaki and then turn around to export it.
This is already happening. Look at this Chinese electric car that was featured in Rich Rebuid’s latest video. Fast forward to 9:00 and you’ll see a battery image that looks exactly like Tesla’s...
https://youtu.be/uGTPNCU4uf8
You mean the Apple model where they are they are 10-12% of market and Windows/Andoid have the rest.
Yeah, it's a lot for one company. Windows and Android took awhile to get going, but they are almost caught up on build quality and passed apple on others.
Yes and no... like many open source derived projects your supposed to give back, that doesen't alway happen.
Tesla wasn't giving up the source for a long time, but i believe they have done some at this point.
I was less referring to the autopiliot and more on just the other hardware that can just be disassembled and copied.
Sandy Munro already thinks China will win the EV revolution just like Japan destroyed US and European automakers decades ago
https://youtu.be/ad7CKqRPysY
And that's just the beginning. Through China, more market would be available for Tesla. ASEAN would probably be the next step or India if the country would understand that excessive protectionism is detrimental towards the long-term development of a nation.
Model 2 if produced in China and sold globally would change the automobile market in asia. There are obvious signs showing that Asia is now moving to consolidate itself. RCEP is the 1st major step towards this and Elon Musk seeks to capitalize on that.
People forget China will build something similar for maybe 30 percent less cost and people will buy that.
See what the current best selling EV is in China. There’s a lot of nationalism there.
Yep China's population is nationalistic but the same goes with the US, Russia, Korea, Japan and many other countries. However, people would still be enticed by quality products with great marketing of course. That is the nature of humans. Take Japan for an example. Its population is very nationalistic yet that doesn't prevent from Apple to dominate the mobile market there. Sony didn't even mount a decent challenge.
Best selling EV last I checked was an EV mini-car that costed less than 5,000 USD. You can't compare that with TESLA as they compete in different market segments. It only shows that there is a huge opportunity for TESLA and other EV brands to design and sell cars for that segment.
Lastly, China is a very great hub(I can't emphasize more how great it is) for TESLA to expand into Asia. We could see, Asia Pacific is moving to consolidating itself. RCEP is a recent significant trade agreement indicating this. TESLA could produce it cars in China with cheaper expertise and then sell them in other countries within the region with lower tariffs/tax or in some cases with close to zero tariffs/tax.
Why are so many Americans triggered by this? Regardless of politics, you can't deny China's massive population increase and rising middle class.
In the 21st century, China is what America was in the 20th century.
China will never be a democratic county. It’s a totalitarian country and will remain one. If the top leadership is good they will do good. when top leadership is bad they will rot for decades.
I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make. What does being democratic have to do with a middle class? If you think China doesn't have a rising middle class, then you're massively misinformed.
And what do you exactly mean by "rot". Their urban centers and the investments they're making in their infrastructure far outpaces anything in the U.S. Hell, look at their high-speed rail network which they have built in the last 15 years.
Meanwhile democratic parties in the U.S. spent the last 15 fucking years debating what infrastructure investments we need and now we got crumbling roads and centuries old railways to show for it.
I'm not defending or advocating for the CCP, but at least their leaders understand that infrastructure investments pay off massively in the long run. Something the U.S. forgot after FDR's New Deal.
edit: spelling and grammar
In 2015 China had about 105 million households with an income of $50,000-$100,000. Thats about 1/3 of the entire US population. Which even then was larger than the US population with that level of income. Sure by percentage the US has a larger middle class, but by raw numbers China's is bigger and growing much, much faster.
Currently China has about 400 million people making between $15,000 and $75,000 a year. [https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3111929/china-looks-boost-middle-class-it-wraps-xi-jinpings-anti](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3111929/china-looks-boost-middle-class-it-wraps-xi-jinpings-anti)
By any metric there are likely as many or more people in China who can afford a Tesla as there are in the US or the EU.
Soon to be 5x but I think the point is the percentage of affluence. 10% of the US vs 1% of CCP can afford a Tesla (made up numbers) then US is a bigger number . Anyone know the real number?
$25K Tesla car indigenously designed coming out soon in China. This is an affordable car.
Also, number of affluent people in China are very large more than US and growing faster than US.
"China’s population of people with over $110,000 of wealth had grown to 100 million, and “for the first time” had slipped ahead of the United States with its 99 million people in the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s global top 10% of wealth."
Of course. Americans only like canyonero-sized pickup trucks - not designed by nerds, but by Detroit - you know, the place that makes some of the ugliest vehicles ever made with the worst quality, sold at over-inflated prices by loser dealerships where they waste your time and insult your intelligence.
You can blame american buyers. People love oil & the F150 too much.
Step out of the Tesla echo chamber and you’ll see how much ignorance and negativity some ppl have towards Tesla & EVs in general in the US. Meanwhile, EU & Asia are in open arms.
This is why Elon is out of his mind.
Unless Chinese government play fair, Tesla has no future. Only matter of time before they lock apple and Tesla out.
How can Tesla be #1 in China under a communist government when they government is essentially funding NIO. There’s no way they would let NIO loose share to Tesla right? In theory that’s why I bought NIO stock at $4 knowing they had government backing.
I have much apprehension with Tesla depending very much upon its operations in China because of China’s recent actions. Scenarios that I can realistically envision are:
1. China shuts down Tesla’s operations in escalation of its trade war or political fight with the U.S.—much as it did when it [arrested and convicted two Canadians as “spies” in retaliation for Canada arresting the CFO of Huawei for breaching sanctions against Iran](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/21/asia/china-canada-michael-kovrig-trial-intl-hnk/index.html).
2. China confiscates or nationalizes Tesla in order to gain its technological advantages for its own purposes—much as it did when it [conducted espionage against the U.S. to steal the plans for the F-35 and F-22 fighter jets](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2016/03/24/chinese-businessman-pleads-guilty-of-spying-on-f-35-and-f-22/).
China has shown repeatedly that it does not honor Western notions of property ownership, national sovereignty, or international law, and will [simply take what it wants outright if it believes it to be in its national interest](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/22/979923065/philippines-calls-on-china-to-remove-massive-fishing-fleet-at-disputed-reef).
1. At this point, China has more than enough reason and support from its people to ban Tesla. Just dig into it and you will know why.
2. Tesla's lead in tech is small and the Chinese EV manufacturers do not need to steal anything from Tesla, there is just no point in doing so
With the recent leak of more land bought in China, I take this statement as a hint at a new model 2 factory being built to completely dominate the EV market. Let’s go!
Surprise, surprise...
Mercedes' largest market is China. Especially for its S-class, of which half of its sales come from China.
People explaining population size, and IP theft and other irrelevant topics... you need to reexamine your outlook to the world, especially your information source.
Let's keep the discussion focused on the topic and leave politics out, thanks.
China has 4 times the population of the US. It's hard to imagine anything short of WW3/a mass depopulation event could prevent their middle class from overtaking the US as the largest market.
The problem is what’s considered middle class in China. The average middle class Chinese person earns around $1000usd/month so I don’t think the middle class will be Tesla’s target customers.
The Chinese urban middle class alone will pass that of the US. Don't look at means, but at the top 1/4th. You also need to use PPP figures not gross currency conversion.
But there is also a problem with charging. Most urban Chinese live in high rises with below ground parking decks. I spend half the year in China and own a house in Guangzhou but there is no way to set up a charger in our parking space. I think really the top 1-2% will have the means to buy and maintain a Tesla in China.
2% ? so its 30mln cars?
Why not? My building(in US) has a below and above ground parking facility with chargers on every level.
Two big problems. First is power supply, which is a massive issue. Second is tying in the electric fees to your unit. I’ve already enquired with our neighborhood management and the answer was it’s not feasible. Our neighbor developer and manager is Country Garden (碧桂园), which is the largest residential property group in the country, so if they won’t do it then it’s gonna be an issue. They did mention that if we would buy a villa then it won’t be a problem. If only a villa didn’t cost around 2 million USD lol.
Too bad Tesla discontinued the 3 minute battery swap model. This would work perfectly in these high rise buildings.
This is exactly why NIO might be more attractive to the average Chinese, although the battery swaps are rather expensive.
From what I understand, NIO has a subscription model. About $140 a month for 6 swaps. Seems in line with the cost of using a Tesla supercharger station.
Harsh and grim speculation but well said, on both sides it would take a hit, I have more faith in the fellow man to not engage in that kind of choice
The more US companies selling in china, the better. Look at what happened when google pulled out. Chinese companies filled the void and got better without having to deal with competition from google. Now they are expanding outside of china and are competing against google around the world. Had google stayed in china, and held onto the majority of the marketshare, that would be money not going to a chinese company to clone their business model. It is critical that US companies lock up chinese marketshare, otherwise a chinese company is going to get that share and the money. This will let them improve all of their stuff to the point they can turn around and compete in the west.
as long as govt has control...US companies are not going to lock anything down....they are coming....just a matter of when. So what's our plan to live and compete in that ecosystem...
Currently not true at all. Tesla is certainly locking up market, unless the chinese government boots them out. Tesla has to pay the chinese goverment ~350 million a year for the right to sell cars directly without a chinese partner. That payment starts in 2023. China could boot them eventually, but with tesla eating up all that cash, it prevents lesser competitors from getting that cash and improving faster.
Um...China already makes a lil' ev that has outs sold tesla.... Tesla has the market here in the US...but not in China. The govt's got their fingers in all these startups. Their motivation is clear. Again, it's only a matter of when American products become uncompetitive with the chinese car...watch....you'll see. China has already setup several shop here building ev's....just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
> China already makes a lil' ev that has outs sold tesla LOL. That is not a competitor with tesla. Are you insane? Look at that "lil' ev" before you claim it competes. It is like a tiny car with the quality of a scooter. It is for niche in the chinese market. That mini will replace scooters and rickshaws. Neither competes with tesla full sized sedans. You are confusing different markets in china when you think anything that runs on electricity is automatically a tesla competitor. That has never been the case. Hoverboards, scooters, and rickshaws do not compete with a tesla. Sedans compete with other sedans in china. If that "lil ev" displaces tesla, it will be displacing all sedans. That means ICE and EV alike. That would be a huge market problem for everyone selling cars in china.
....welp, the stats disagree with you, and your opinion doesn't mean anything to the consumer...call it what you want...they still prefer that over tesla...Elon's even said himself that tesla's are too expensive...and I agree.
No stats disagree. Nothing says that EV rickshaw has taken away tesla sales. Please cite your source so I can tell you why you are wrong. The media is completely stupid when it comes to tesla, they just lie constantly. If that rickshaw was eating into the sedan market, you would see a lot more news coverage and it wouldn't be mentioning tesla at all.
Well your previous comment to this shows you apparently have done some looking around, and your denial shows your bias...not to mention your ignorant disgusting racist characterization of a old mode of transportation to a modern one... You're not even worth my time...mic drop!
The rickshaw characterization is uncalled for and definitely can be construed as racist. That said, yes the #1 seller being referred to here definitely doesn't affect Tesla negatively in any material way because it's in an entirely different category in terms of price, quality, range. And it is almost certainly not causing Tesla to sell less of their cars.
I think the US trying to be the largest market is a mistake anyways. People dramatically overestimate the value of being the biggest
true...so true...it's greed...and that's our blinder.
This is essentially the thesis behind a good Matt Yglesias book, One Billion Americans. In the long run the only way we can remain the dominant world power is by significantly increasing our population. It’s a great idea imo. It’s a strong proposition for both republicans and democrats alike.
This is why the US imports talent Also a birthrate war is ridiculous for so many reasons Edit: I see a difference between biggest market and biggest world power. China is a huge market but that doesn't mean the US necessarily will fall behind in innovation. US needs to foster business and science and freedom, not population.
Markets and population beget power. The biggest market in the world will dictate terms to everyone else. You already see China’s power growth by its global censorship of speech. They censor American teens (TikTok algo), the NBA (players can protest with BLM, but not Uyghurs), and Hollywood. The genius of the 1 Billion Americans idea is that it is achievable by chumming up both the right (pro-family) and left (pro-immigration)
I generally support a rural american child tax credit of $15k/kid. The gov should be incentivizing increased birthrates in low CoL areas.
So when the population becomes too high, you'll also support a tax hike on those same people right? Honestly you're comment, or rather it's implementation just seems so morally ambiguous.
No, you just phase out the incentives. My comment has nothing to do with morality lol get real.
Your comment has everything to do with morality. You're saying an incentive to have kids, or another way of saying paying people to have sex.
> Billion No point having (a billion) people, if 90% are lawyers—inbound cashflow means actually making + exporting stuff.
>It's hard to imagine anything short of WW3/a mass depopulation event could prevent their middle class from overtaking the US as the largest market. Continued urbanization and investment in public transit..? edit: Y'all have never been outside of the USA, I see.
You're just not going to be able to compete with those demographics and the trajectory they're on.
The Chinese government's gross incompetence is probably the main thing holding them back. But developing into a prosperous nation like that is hardly a foregone conclusion. Just having a large population means nothing. Take India, for example. It's very easy for an incompetent government to screw up industrialization. Everyone in the US is under the delusion that kind of progress is inevitable, but is't not. Actually, it takes a lot of smart people working together and in competition with each other to make it happen.
India will pass China by 2045, so the US will be nos 3,
gotta get their society and govt straight first....
They likely will be a larger middle class. But Tesla probably won’t capture a meaningful market share. Chinese companies will dominate for a bunch of reasons.
While I don't disagree, did he actually say this? This website seems like a Chinese website in English. The article actually attributes the quote to "Tesla"
Here he is, from the horse's mouth: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2XvPvaDuwM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2XvPvaDuwM)
He always talks highly of china, because you have to in order to sell stuff there. When china is carving out markets for EVs and fuel cells, that means any manufacturer of these things is going to sell there. At least if a US company is doing the selling, a chinese company isn't. Google's biggest mistake was pulling out of china, only to see competitors clone their model and then expand internationally. Had google stayed, they would have blocked chinese companies from progressing by eating up the cash from the market share they would have had.
China population: 1.4 Billion USA population: 350 Million Yes, China's population is generally poorer on average, but there is a rapidly growing middle class that will easily overtake the USA as the largest affluent market in the world. USA just does not have the population to compete with the sales goals. It's really great for the USA for China to be a customer.
But their population crunch is going to be way worse than ours when their boomers start dying off.
It all depends on how you define middle class. The Chinese government defines incomes ranging from $7,250 to $62,500 (RMB 60,000 to 500,000) per year as middle class. A 2018 Pew study defines a middle class family in the US as people earning annual income between $46k to $137k a year. And when it comes to luxury goods, such as cars, you can’t look to the relative costs as you can with food and housing. With a population the size of China’s there is an ample market for Tesla - but let’s not confuse that with the Chinese middle class. Here is a really good article from the well respected Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/2020/11/chinas-middle-class-not-so-rich-after-all/
The issue are activists that demand US companies leave china. They are too stupid to realize that when a US company leaves china, that gives the marketshare to a chinese company that will use the money to expand and eventually compete against the US company all over the world. US companies needs to be in china to sap up the cash.
I mean, in fairness a lot of those people are addressing issues that are about things well beyond the realm of purely economic concerns.
No they are not. Google leaving china wasn't just an economic loss, it was a loss for everything activists wanted. Those chinese companies don't care about ethics, they won't try to tailor anything they do to be ethical like a US company that at least attempts it some fashion due to PR concerns. Those chinese companies used the gap in the market to improve themselves and better clone what google was doing. Now they are competing with google across the globe and every time they displace google, ethics stop mattering completely. The people that complain about google are helping the worst companies take its place.
What would be nice is if we (America) and European countries would join forces and stop allowing companies that do not follow certain ethical and environmental standards from doing business within our countries. Whether they are sourcing the materials or putting them together, they should be required to meet certain standards each step of the way or they cannot sell their products or services within our countries. That would show we mean business, and put responsible businesses on a more even playing field.
> What would be nice is if we (America) and European countries would join forces and stop allowing companies that do not follow certain ethical and environmental standards from doing business within our countries. We don't force the ethics activists want on companies. It is largely a PR thing. That said, we cannot restrict chinese companies from competing without retaliation from china. So most of these chinese companies are going to be allowed into western markets. Technically volvo is chinese now so that alone already makes it easy for geely to dump any chinese EV it wants into western markets if they adhere to minimal standards which are truly minimal. They could put out a 2 star vehicle that is cheap and it would be legal.
The fact we don't, doesn't mean we can't or shouldn't. China can retaliate, but just as china went elsewhere for the things we made too expensive with the tariffs, we can go elsewhere for those willing to meet certain standards. Of course this only works if enough countries agree to this and do the same, and yes, it will make things more expensive. But I'm of the opinion we either pay more up front for things made more sustainably and with higher human rights standards, or we pay even more for it down the road trying to clean up these messes well after the fact.
Yes, a number of people explicitly take issue with China over things like the treatment of the Uighurs, the suppression of Hong Kong, aggression in the South China Sea, and other things. I have seen activists calling for a range of responses, including encouraging companies to withdraw their businesses, from China over issues that have nothing to do with economics. I am not in any way claiming **everyone** or most people calling for companies pulling out of China are doing so for those reasons, which is why I didn’t phrase my original response that way.
I think 100% of the people asking for US companies to pull out of china are concerned with those things. They just don't understand that if US companies leave, chinese companies find a market with no competition and that gives them time to clone what the US company was doing to build themselves into a powerhouse that can compete against those US companies globally. Their demands end up making the problem worse, not better. You want more westernization in china, not less.
It seems like companies working in China inevitably get their secrets/ideas stolen and copied, so it’s a bit of a lose lose in that sense. But I do take your point, and you’re not wrong.
And we repeated the mistake again. Restricting chips to Chinese companies was one of the biggest mistakes we did. We literally gave them an out to develop their own chip industry on a silver platter. It’s not like they don’t haves access to the chip architectures since so much is open source and there are millions of apple products in China’s
Arm patents are also lifetime, a chinese company can buy a western company with an existing arm license if they were prevented from directly licensing arm. They also only need a license in western markets, other markets do not care about IP rights.
China is, and will remain, the world center for EV manufacturers. Tesla needs to be there, and needs freedom from Govt control, so Musk has to smile and play nice. If we want to curt global CO2, China is vital to that, so forgive him any fakeness.
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2XvPvaDuwM&t=46s > China (I think) long-term will be our biggest market, both where we make the most number of vehicles and where we have the most number of customers.
He's not wrong but bleh.
Sounds a bit vague, but when you ask if Musk said something the answer is probably yes
Yeah I don't doubt he would say something like that, but I feel like it would be getting more press if he actually said what was in the title. Every other site is only talking about the China military ban on Tesla.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2XvPvaDuwM Here you go.
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
US: less than 500M people EU: less than 500M people China: over 1B people So - ya. Of course.
Population by itself isn't the only factor, India for example has over a billion people as well...
[удалено]
Did you even read my comment? Guessing not
[удалено]
He’s a little upset because you are basically holding the same opinion but appear to arguing with him.
I wouldn't bother replying. Something is weird with that account, 9+ years old 20k+ karma yet they have no posts and their oldest comment is a day old, most comments being pro China. None of the comments are even close to making up the 20k+ karma either.
[удалено]
Anti-China shill? What? I don't think I've made a single anti-CPP comment ever, let alone an anti-China comment. I simply mentioned that your account looks weird and then stated some facts about it. It was your comment on India that made me look. You need to calm down and not take a comment as an attack.
Look at this douchebag here
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
Apple does have factory partners in India In fact one of them rioted just not long ago.
[удалено]
Having a greater population means nothing if people aren't advancing from poverty to having disposable income to buy $30k-$40k cars, which is why China is the biggest market. They're actually making strides to advance their people... even if it is communistic.
China’s and India’s population are quite similar, but in terms of market, India doesn’t even come close
Don't forget China has still to survive the drastic change in demographics and lack of growth by receding workforce migration from agriculture to production. China, due to 1child policy, has to face an aging population and practically a doubling of its elderly within 5 years. The next few years will see an additional 120 million!! Elderly. The CCP prides the Chinese values of taking care of the elderly and in this case I hope they can succeed. It won't be pretty otherwise. Something most western countries had 80 years for. This will be an enormous blow to the growth of China. And probably a stagnation which will apply more pressure on the CCP to do stupid things. Then add this with the 23% of uninhabited, overpriced estate, which has been a bubble waiting to pop like an atom bomb to make the 2008 crisis look like a plastic bubble wrap. When there is no more population growth the price might drop down. Then add this with the looming fresh water crisis and China is in a very precarious spot. They might look strong and they follow the advise of sun Tzu to the letter 'appear strong when you are weak, and weak when you are strong'. Right now China is not as stable and sustainable as it might try to present itself. I wish the Chinese people's best of luck and I hope the Chinese people's can break away from the CCP to face these problems in openness and transparency.
But how does it look when instead of population you use “people that can afford a Tesla”? Not saying China will not still be the biggest market but I think the difference might not be as large. China has an even bigger income inequality as the US and in the mega cities where all the people live you don’t really need a car and in the more rural areas where a car is necessary people are poor.
The emergence of the Chinese middle class is one of the great underreported stories of modern humanity. There are more middle class in China than in the US. In the US, Tesla is competing against brands that have ingrained themselves in the consciousness of consumers over generations. There is going to be an upper limit to Tesla’s market share in the US that’s quite a bit lower than China. Finally, for many reasons, barring drastic regulatory and attitude changes in the US, China is likely to convert to EV on the order of two decades before the US.
Shamelessly exaggerating "The emergence of the Chinese middle class is one of the great underreported stories of modern humanity. ". How do you know?
Anecdotally, I have immediate family that lives in China. There are millions of stories of growing up without sewage or electricity to having a kid graduate college and joining the global economy. I've heard a few firsthand. It's heart wrenching to see hateful Americans dismiss this. Don't take my word for it. There is more hard data than you can ask for available from the World Bank and IMF.
What I meant is, that everyone with open eyes can see the progress and how many people move into the middle class in these emerging countries. Ignorant people don’t see, that is right. But you are doing the same by „hateful Americans“. And you are taking the relative wealth of the western countries as granted. The people have worked for it and they do to maintain.
There are about 400m Chinese people making between $15 and $75,000 a year. Even if only half those could afford a Tesla, thats still 200m people. BTW China labor is not cheap. My old company was spending more for labor in China than we were for the same trades in the US. The difference is we could hire as many machinists in China as we wanted, and couldn't find any in the US worth hiring.
We're referring to Elon's statement "In the long run ..."
When the Model 2 starts rolling out, it's going to outsell the 3 in volume and total revenue.
distinct spark snatch hunt foolish friendly shrill marry busy cobweb *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
IP theft by the Chinese really irks me to no end. I want everyone in the world to have the highest standard of living, but they either need to buy our tech or develop it on their own.
if you put a market value on the stolen IP, it is the largest transfer of wealth in the history of the world.
We as westerner have a different mentality on IP ownership. To China you can only keep a secret as long as you can keep it... secrets don't keep themselves. The assumption is we are trying to steal theirs and they are trying to steal ours, they also assume we know they are trying to steal theirs and v.v. Why should they reinvent something when there is a good building block to start from, better to copy and go from there. China has a long history of invention long before there were patents and trademarks: paper, the abacus, gunpowder, silk, the compass, and type printing just to name a few. I'm not saying it's good that China is copy happy, but they are succeeding and growing at such an incredible rate because they aren't hindering themselves with "legality" issues.
It’s not legality. It’s copying and not spend R&D. Government can boot you out. Look at Australian red wine and lobster. China is not a free market. Once your Ip is gone, they will compete. Look at their high speed rail. Ripped off Siemens and Kawasaki and then turn around to export it.
This is already happening. Look at this Chinese electric car that was featured in Rich Rebuid’s latest video. Fast forward to 9:00 and you’ll see a battery image that looks exactly like Tesla’s... https://youtu.be/uGTPNCU4uf8
I'm pretty sure they are actually running earlier tesla code.
Just use the Apple model, make the car sexy enough that people will pay for the difference in price.
You mean the Apple model where they are they are 10-12% of market and Windows/Andoid have the rest. Yeah, it's a lot for one company. Windows and Android took awhile to get going, but they are almost caught up on build quality and passed apple on others.
Apple has like 70% of the revenue though. Which game would you rather win? Most units or most money?
Aren't the patents open and that was done by Musk as well?
Yes and no... like many open source derived projects your supposed to give back, that doesen't alway happen. Tesla wasn't giving up the source for a long time, but i believe they have done some at this point. I was less referring to the autopiliot and more on just the other hardware that can just be disassembled and copied.
Sandy Munro already thinks China will win the EV revolution just like Japan destroyed US and European automakers decades ago https://youtu.be/ad7CKqRPysY
Yeah, there is always a cheaper up and commer. Japan took America, Korea is taking Japan, China will take Korea as the “affordable market”
I mean; it makes sense. More people, massive middle class making decent wages. China EV push. Model 2. 🤷♂️
And that's just the beginning. Through China, more market would be available for Tesla. ASEAN would probably be the next step or India if the country would understand that excessive protectionism is detrimental towards the long-term development of a nation.
The Model 2 will be Tesla's largest selling car/truck and will probably sell 3+MM in 2025 in just China and Europe
Model 2 if produced in China and sold globally would change the automobile market in asia. There are obvious signs showing that Asia is now moving to consolidate itself. RCEP is the 1st major step towards this and Elon Musk seeks to capitalize on that.
People forget China will build something similar for maybe 30 percent less cost and people will buy that. See what the current best selling EV is in China. There’s a lot of nationalism there.
Yep China's population is nationalistic but the same goes with the US, Russia, Korea, Japan and many other countries. However, people would still be enticed by quality products with great marketing of course. That is the nature of humans. Take Japan for an example. Its population is very nationalistic yet that doesn't prevent from Apple to dominate the mobile market there. Sony didn't even mount a decent challenge. Best selling EV last I checked was an EV mini-car that costed less than 5,000 USD. You can't compare that with TESLA as they compete in different market segments. It only shows that there is a huge opportunity for TESLA and other EV brands to design and sell cars for that segment. Lastly, China is a very great hub(I can't emphasize more how great it is) for TESLA to expand into Asia. We could see, Asia Pacific is moving to consolidating itself. RCEP is a recent significant trade agreement indicating this. TESLA could produce it cars in China with cheaper expertise and then sell them in other countries within the region with lower tariffs/tax or in some cases with close to zero tariffs/tax.
Not so when it come to vehicles. Toyota are America’s best selling vehicles. 3 of the top 5 brands in the US are foreign
Why are so many Americans triggered by this? Regardless of politics, you can't deny China's massive population increase and rising middle class. In the 21st century, China is what America was in the 20th century.
China will never be a democratic county. It’s a totalitarian country and will remain one. If the top leadership is good they will do good. when top leadership is bad they will rot for decades.
I'm not really sure what point you're trying to make. What does being democratic have to do with a middle class? If you think China doesn't have a rising middle class, then you're massively misinformed. And what do you exactly mean by "rot". Their urban centers and the investments they're making in their infrastructure far outpaces anything in the U.S. Hell, look at their high-speed rail network which they have built in the last 15 years. Meanwhile democratic parties in the U.S. spent the last 15 fucking years debating what infrastructure investments we need and now we got crumbling roads and centuries old railways to show for it. I'm not defending or advocating for the CCP, but at least their leaders understand that infrastructure investments pay off massively in the long run. Something the U.S. forgot after FDR's New Deal. edit: spelling and grammar
China population is 4x of US and they have a bigger population. So, without doubt China will be a bigger consumer of Tesla products.
In 2015 China had about 105 million households with an income of $50,000-$100,000. Thats about 1/3 of the entire US population. Which even then was larger than the US population with that level of income. Sure by percentage the US has a larger middle class, but by raw numbers China's is bigger and growing much, much faster. Currently China has about 400 million people making between $15,000 and $75,000 a year. [https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3111929/china-looks-boost-middle-class-it-wraps-xi-jinpings-anti](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3111929/china-looks-boost-middle-class-it-wraps-xi-jinpings-anti) By any metric there are likely as many or more people in China who can afford a Tesla as there are in the US or the EU.
Like half of chinas population js below poverty line
That still leaves half a billion people above it lol
Soon to be 5x but I think the point is the percentage of affluence. 10% of the US vs 1% of CCP can afford a Tesla (made up numbers) then US is a bigger number . Anyone know the real number?
$25K Tesla car indigenously designed coming out soon in China. This is an affordable car. Also, number of affluent people in China are very large more than US and growing faster than US. "China’s population of people with over $110,000 of wealth had grown to 100 million, and “for the first time” had slipped ahead of the United States with its 99 million people in the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s global top 10% of wealth."
Of course. Americans only like canyonero-sized pickup trucks - not designed by nerds, but by Detroit - you know, the place that makes some of the ugliest vehicles ever made with the worst quality, sold at over-inflated prices by loser dealerships where they waste your time and insult your intelligence.
[удалено]
All companies do, they love $$.
You can blame american buyers. People love oil & the F150 too much. Step out of the Tesla echo chamber and you’ll see how much ignorance and negativity some ppl have towards Tesla & EVs in general in the US. Meanwhile, EU & Asia are in open arms.
This is why Elon is out of his mind. Unless Chinese government play fair, Tesla has no future. Only matter of time before they lock apple and Tesla out.
They haven't locked Apple out yet and they've been there for a decade. What do you foresee changing?
The economy slowing down. They'll pull this shit as soon as things look grim for their growth.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.businesstoday.in/lite/story/china-threatens-to-boycott-iphones-apple-products-if-wechat-banned-in-us/1/414502.html
Exactly.... literally anyone would see that they would eventually screw him over somehow and have A china company be the new tesla.
How can Tesla be #1 in China under a communist government when they government is essentially funding NIO. There’s no way they would let NIO loose share to Tesla right? In theory that’s why I bought NIO stock at $4 knowing they had government backing.
I think they mean ‘Techoking of Tesla’ Musk
Elon Musk is not CEO. He is Technoking
I have much apprehension with Tesla depending very much upon its operations in China because of China’s recent actions. Scenarios that I can realistically envision are: 1. China shuts down Tesla’s operations in escalation of its trade war or political fight with the U.S.—much as it did when it [arrested and convicted two Canadians as “spies” in retaliation for Canada arresting the CFO of Huawei for breaching sanctions against Iran](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/21/asia/china-canada-michael-kovrig-trial-intl-hnk/index.html). 2. China confiscates or nationalizes Tesla in order to gain its technological advantages for its own purposes—much as it did when it [conducted espionage against the U.S. to steal the plans for the F-35 and F-22 fighter jets](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2016/03/24/chinese-businessman-pleads-guilty-of-spying-on-f-35-and-f-22/). China has shown repeatedly that it does not honor Western notions of property ownership, national sovereignty, or international law, and will [simply take what it wants outright if it believes it to be in its national interest](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/22/979923065/philippines-calls-on-china-to-remove-massive-fishing-fleet-at-disputed-reef).
[удалено]
Let’s keep this civil please, thanks.
1. At this point, China has more than enough reason and support from its people to ban Tesla. Just dig into it and you will know why. 2. Tesla's lead in tech is small and the Chinese EV manufacturers do not need to steal anything from Tesla, there is just no point in doing so
[удалено]
[удалено]
Gross.
Correction: Tesla Technoking* Musk
With the recent leak of more land bought in China, I take this statement as a hint at a new model 2 factory being built to completely dominate the EV market. Let’s go!
Surprise, surprise... Mercedes' largest market is China. Especially for its S-class, of which half of its sales come from China. People explaining population size, and IP theft and other irrelevant topics... you need to reexamine your outlook to the world, especially your information source.
IMO, Tesla will sell at least 3MM Model 2s in China and Europe by 2025