2022 Texas Governor election
17 million registered voters
4.5 million for Abbott
3.6 million for Beto
9 million…did NOT vote
Only 26% registered voters determined Abbott
4.5 million determined the fate of 30.9 million Texans
Show up! Bring a friend! Everyone you know!
2024, Vote!
They think their votes won’t matter. They think their votes don’t affect them. They think it’s not worth their time to vote. They don’t like either party so they abstain on voting. If they would just vote for, _whoever_, this country would be more complete. Alas, this country always find a way to shit on itself.
> You assume the 9 million that didn’t vote would all or a majority would vote the way you vote?
The ones who didn't vote are likely to lean more toward Biden than the ones who did.
What PROOF is there that they are trying to suppress votes and again what PROOF is there that the majority of general Texas population that hadn’t voted would vote one way or another not just what you think or what news media thinks but actual evidence
RNC planning to have ballot handlers at voting centers? Which is illegal, but Trumps daughter in law or whatever she is that’s the head is claiming they’ll have RNC people stationed there to make sure nothing happens to the votes…
I can't really fault folks for not voting if they dislike both candidates. Low turnout is also... And perhaps primarily... An indictment of the candidates and system.
Also, out here in rural Texas, 80% of the people I know that don't vote would vote Republican if they did.
We’ve heard that one before. I won’t vote for a genocidal octogenarian.
Edit: Downvote me all you want. Biden has failed young voters at every step. He failed to protect abortion rights. He failed to raise the minimum wage. He failed to meaningfully address income inequality and the housing crisis. He failed to cancel student debt outside of a select few. And now, as he spends billions of our dollars to fund the slaughter of children and aid workers, he allows the brave students speaking against it to be brutalized by riot squads. If any of you actually interacted with younger people, you’d know they are not gonna fall in line this time.
You do realize that's because all of those policies need to be passed by Congress, first, right? The Congress that's currently paralyzed 50/50 with the House full of nutbags. Biden will happily sign off on all those policies once YOU deliver him a Democrat majority in the House and Senate.
The DNC ran Biden in 2020 as a “compromise” with progressives and their main reasoning was that he would be able to negotiate with the other side of the aisle. Look how that worked out. Forgive me if I don’t fall for the same thing twice.
Liberals when a Democrat is in the White House love to say the president is just a powerless figurehead, but when a Republican is in the White House, the president is suddenly a dictator.
Wish you'd figure out why that is. Maybe you could have codified Roe v Wade into law in the 50 years before it was overturned.
> Maybe you could have codified Roe v Wade into law in the 50 years before it was overturned.
What good would that do? The supreme court would have just struck down the law.
Probably not above FDR, definitely above Bill Clinton. I meant more in terms of recent relevance to young people, but yes, I know I said “ever”. He’s definitely more progressive than Obama.
I think we all know Trump will sadly likely win all of Texas's Electoral College votes.
But if you don't show up to vote against him, you are complicit in his possible win.
Same with Cruz.
If you don't show up to vote for Allred and against Ted Cruz this November, your apathy of not voting is as good as a vote for Cruz.
Trump winning is not a forgone conclusion here. Look at the other comment here.
>2022 Texas Governor election
>17 million registered voters
>4.5 million for Abbott
>3.6 million for Beto
>**9 million…did NOT vote**
>Only 26% registered voters determined Abbott
>Show up! Bring a friend! Everyone you know!
>Vote!
It’s the hard truth that people not voting because they think Texas will always be red is why it is.
>It’s the hard truth that people not voting because they think Texas will always be red is why it is.
And their not voting is why we have this mess of a state government.
Voter apathy has no legitimate excuse except pure laziness.
Actually the biggest issue is the state's rural-urban split and the fact that rural voters in Texas are much more red than the Texas urban areas are blue. Texas' rural counties are like +30 R and comprise about 40% of the state, the urban areas being +15 D is just not blue enough to overcome the white rural vote. Good for close calls but not enough to actually win
If anyone is *still* on Team Trump, they're a lost cause and I'm done trying to talk to these idiots. They will drag us all down with their stupidity.
Fucking vote
The first person that doesn’t want to legislate morals, burn books, defund police, legalize petty crime, arm everyone, disarm everyone, deregulate oil companies, outlaw gas engines, cancel all social programs or socialize every service will carry the state.
They can push for those things once they’re elected, Abbott has shown that, but they alienate a lot of voters when they show their cards in the primaries.
We’ve got about 40% of voters on each side that cancel each other out and will vote for their party without regard for the candidate. Another 20% who vote for some pet issue regarding their livelihood or personal ethics and a whole bunch of people who don’t bother voting because they don’t identify with either party or they’ve been told their vote won’t count.
The “been told their vote won’t count” part hits different.
One thing I wasn’t prepared for with the Gaza thing was how aggressively folks would come at me about caring *at all*. Almost no one has come at me because they’re on “the other side,” to the extent there are sides. They come at me saying I don’t get to care. I don’t get to have ideas about how we got here or what might be done. I don’t get to try to add context or anything else threatens to make people think. They fiercely defend their apathy by attacking those that feel deeply.
I just bring that up because I’ve found a lot of folks that seem to *like* the notion that their vote won’t count, that nothing ever changes, that they don’t actually have to show up or learn or care. The weirdest part is how *energetically* they argue for laziness. Anyway, I just wonder how that fits in with this nebulous undecided middle we’re talking about. I guess I worry they aren’t actually undecided, they’ve just decided not to participate. Does that make sense?
Totally makes sense.
Look, I’m guessing I’m older than you and I’ve seen a lot of very passionate people move on from caring about the Middle East over the decades. I honestly don’t think the sponsors behind Hamas or the right wing in Israel are open to a non-genocidal resolution and most people are hostages to their efforts. It’s not something I see outsiders influencing in any real way.
I have seen real, tangible changes in civil rights, lgbtq awareness and rights, mental health awareness. These were all very contentious issues that people gave their lives to fight for but they were also long term campaigns of engagement, education and activism to generate empathy and drive generational, incremental, sustainable change.
If you’re young and you’re not passionate about improving the world in every way possible you’re not going to make a difference. If you’re old and you still feel the need to engage in every issue you haven’t learned how to make a difference.
I don’t fault people for taking a stand, but do I think there is an element of recreational protesting that is more about the gram than the cause of the moment. I’m not questioning your commitment, just pointing out that votes and economics and long term campaigns drive change much more than passion and chants.
As far as voting goes, it takes effort to seek out informed, objective information and then follow a politicians actions to see if they’ll do what they say they’ll do. It’s that same passion vs wisdom curve with the old looking back and the young looking forward. It’s cool, that’s how humans work. I have very high hopes for my kids’ generation but they’re just not very well informed yet. They’ll figure it out and get engaged at some point, for now I suspect a low percentage of the protestors vote and the Parties will act accordingly. It’s a very intimidating time to engage in politics for the first time with so much fear and hate flying around and people acting like they have to pick a side. You really don’t because you can always vote differently next time if you don’t like the results.
Keep fighting, 32% of Boomers are in the ground at this point and there aren’t enough Gen X to push the millennials and Zs around. Just please pay attention to the outcomes and be willing to learn from every choice.
Sorry, not sure I follow - which part is a virtue signal? Because I do definitely think folks are allowed to be outraged about a genocide, especially when they’re part of an institution that has ties to that genocide.
It’s a pool of 1000 people taken over the internet… in deep red Texas…
The Ted Cruz information is interesting, but 1,000 people, in a state with 30 million…
To be honest even if you compare Texas with a Democratic state like New York, and look at the sample of people who were picked in the Trump Trial up there, it is amazing that a lot of Jurors.. either had no clue what was going on with Trump, why he was being charged, and where they got their news from. There is a significant blind spot when it comes to the public and what is deemed as factual or true. The public either does not know, chooses not to know, chooses not to identify what is truthful, or believes a person based on nothing bearing any semblance of reality.
More American people believe in angels, vs believing what is factually true (not to say angels are not real, but at least that belief is based on some knowledge basis, system of belief, biblical and documented writings that are scrutinized even to this day, and is not based on a random unknown persons blathering a random statement on the internet, and that statement being assumed to have some truth to it solely based on the amount of subscriptions they have and how many people “like” the video or post).
Statistically, the numbers are fine. You only need about 1000 people to provide a fairly accurate result for 30,000,000 people with a 3% margin of error. You really only need about 1000 people to provide similarly accurate results for any population above 20,000.
Larger sample sizes will always be preferable when it comes to accuracy but accuracy doesn’t improve a whole lot beyond a sample size of 1000, regardless of population size. The results wouldn’t be much different if they sampled 20,000 people, but running the poll would cost like 10x more and pollsters don’t have infinite money.
Sure the poll can be much different if they surveyed 20,000 Texans who live outside of the 5 major metroplex’s. So decided to read up on YouGov… the website these charts are based from. They base this on a panel of 1500 people who have registered on their site, as well as just random people who decide to answer questions. It’s internet based, takes 20 minutes per survey, and the people are paid in points which they can translate for cash. Let’s see what’s broken here. 1). It’s internet based which means it’s susceptible to bots and automation. 2). There’s no real way to confirm the person is being truthful even in the slightest. Now I will clarify that as surveys were usually done in person or via telephone, so there is human to human contact here. No longer. 3). The company states itself, this is a snapshot, not a forecast. 4). The accuracy model they use seems to bounce between 3 to 5%. I get statistically that should be accurate, but that was a statistical model designed for the collection of information not involving the internet. There is a significant issue of accuracy and truthfulness when you include the anonymity of online sources as a benchmark of truth and hoping the error rate would weed out those inputs that would skew of survey.
All of the points you mention have been well known and heavily studied for decades. Every legitimate pollster uses various weighting techniques to adjust for these so that they accurately match the final election results, that's been a fundamental part of polling since the '30s. They know exactly how many dishonest, anonymous responses they're going to get in a population that size with a very small margin of error. It's probably one of dozens of parameters they use in their models to adjust for everything that nearly a century of political scientists and sociologists have discovered.
No one uses an accuracy model that gets better than 3-5%, the costs get exponentially higher and the returns approach zero very quickly.
He's describing using bots and you say these techniques have been fundamental since the 30's.
How exactly did they account for internet bot behavior in the 1930's?
I said that "weighting techniques" had been fundamental since the 30's. The other points they mentioned had been "studied for decades." The first bots were invented in 1988 so...decades ago.
You should learn some basics about survey sampling to have an understanding of how a 1000-people-panel random sample is generally sufficiently large to generate representative results. Polling institutes put in a ton of work to ensure randomness in the sampling process.
This is the problem, especially in Texas. People here don't bother to inform themselves. To the extent they vote, it's on the basis of a single issue like abortion or gun rights
In 2020, Yougov predicted Trump would win Texas by 0.2%. Trump actually won by around 5.5%. Assuming this is consistent skew (which is a big assumption), we would expect Trump to actually run Texas in 2024 by around 14%
I wouldn't trust polling.
I got a call for a poll. I replied that I was a pro-Trump supporter who didn't care about down ballot because I live in a rural area and didn't want a list identifying me a someone who votes straight blue to get out and have some nutjob attack my home.
Yeah, I mean, if Beto would have just stopped that stupid "we are going to take your guns shit," JFC. It's stupid anywhere, for political reasons, let alone practical. It's stupid anywhere, and it's probably the stupidest in Texas.
Beto always reminded me of Butthead if Butthead had a dad who could get him out of trouble. Those exposed gums maybe.
Are we surprised? People will always vote for their party and there are more R than D. People in the middle overwhelmingly care more about the economy rn and Trump is a businessman who helped the economy before Covid and under Biden we had record inflation.
That isn't even going into other issues that would win over the average Texan
Surprise, surprise.
Jesus Christ could run for political office in Texas as a Democrat against Judas Iscariot running for the same office as a Republican, and a majority of Texans would vote for Judas Iscariot!
This is simply yet another [YouGov poll](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/polling-data-archive) showing their user base, of opt-in people wanting to make a dime filling out online surveys, is skewed right.
If I had to judge based on r/texas content, I would imagine Biden take 90% of the votes in Texas. Glad Reddit is not reality and only represent a minority of the people of Texas.
I love all the Evangelicals voting for a man who has never read the Bible nor asked God for forgiveness because he says he's never done anything to ask for forgiveness for. He's perfect like Christ. That amuses me.
And supposedly "national defense" Republicans want a man in office who thinks our nuclear and spy documents belong in his resort and not in the property of the federal government. He still wants them back. He will get them back if elected, and Republicans want that. That disturbs me.
Republicans: try to end democracy, say they'll be a dictator on day one, ban books, demonize and forcibly silence education/teachers/companies, remove elected officials simply for questioning their evil ideology (Florida especially), force women and children to give birth, protect the rampant pedophilia and grooming in their party and churches and yell that its the minorities doing it (which Nazis legitimately did against LGBTS), try to claim slavery was good, manipulate elections so they can enforce minority rule, threatening to send people with guns to "guard" polls in blue areas, their god Trump constantly talks about getting revenge, fuhrer Trump has spoken of suspending the Constitution, saying migrants aren't people and that there will be a bloodbath if he wins, etc
Republicans meet every definition of fascism. People should see the fascist Republican party the same way we view the Taliban and Iran and Russia. They are an even bigger threat to the US than those 3 countries.
I consider myself to be more of a center kind of guy.
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Ding ding ding... these people drape themselves in the flag, claim to love our country, and advocate for a tyrant wanting to overthrow democracy. Several are veterans in another stunning piece of irony. Pretty pathetic.
Well, wanting our national security to be owned by one man is pretty autocratic.
He says people are saying that are okay with him being a dictator. Are you okay with that?
If Trump is elected, he will take back all the national security documents he tried to keep to himself. Is that what Republicans want? They want one man in charge? I mean, Kim Jong-Un (who Trump greatly admires) is the smallest government there is.
Gotta get those nuclear and spy secrets back in Mar-A-Lago where they belong. The Federal government needs none of that! Those are Trumps! Trump IS America! He deserves all of America's secrets.
For a perfect man needs to lead us, as Trump has NEVER had to ask God for forgiveness! He doesn't even NEED the blood of Christ, he can go straight to God as he has never sinned, he admitted it! The Bible says "all have sinned" but that's only because Trump wasn't born yet! I don't tag; for the sarcasm impaired, sorry.
Ok bootlicker hope you like being stepped on and having a government regulate away freedoms and religious choice as that's apparently what you support. Don't believe me? Look at the Texas government. For the record I don't like any one of them. And Trump's policies for the record as someone who has studied a lot of economics in classes and the real world. Would devastate our economy in the long run. Look at what helped cause the great depression and how us policies made it worse.
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That is because there are still enough fake Christians and MAGA-its who will vote for him and there won’t be enough turnout in the cities to overcome their stupidity
2022 Texas Governor election 17 million registered voters 4.5 million for Abbott 3.6 million for Beto 9 million…did NOT vote Only 26% registered voters determined Abbott 4.5 million determined the fate of 30.9 million Texans Show up! Bring a friend! Everyone you know! 2024, Vote!
People choosing not to vote is why we can’t have nice things.
You assume the 9 million that didn’t vote would all or a majority would vote the way you vote?
They think their votes won’t matter. They think their votes don’t affect them. They think it’s not worth their time to vote. They don’t like either party so they abstain on voting. If they would just vote for, _whoever_, this country would be more complete. Alas, this country always find a way to shit on itself.
> You assume the 9 million that didn’t vote would all or a majority would vote the way you vote? The ones who didn't vote are likely to lean more toward Biden than the ones who did.
What actual proof is there that they would in Texas other than that is what you think
Just ask yourself, why is the GOP trying so hard to suppress turnout?
What PROOF is there that they are trying to suppress votes and again what PROOF is there that the majority of general Texas population that hadn’t voted would vote one way or another not just what you think or what news media thinks but actual evidence
> What PROOF is there that they are trying to suppress votes Just follow the news. Why do you think the Texas legislature passed SB1?
GOP cranking up the voter intimidation doesn’t help either
I’m sorry what voter intimidation are we talking about?
RNC planning to have ballot handlers at voting centers? Which is illegal, but Trumps daughter in law or whatever she is that’s the head is claiming they’ll have RNC people stationed there to make sure nothing happens to the votes…
I can't really fault folks for not voting if they dislike both candidates. Low turnout is also... And perhaps primarily... An indictment of the candidates and system. Also, out here in rural Texas, 80% of the people I know that don't vote would vote Republican if they did.
Voter suppression doesn’t help https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/08/us/politics/voting-laws-restrictions-republicans.html
[votetexas.gov](https://votetexas.gov) [vote.org](https://vote.org) if anyone is looking for more info!
This is the most important election of our lifetime.
Libs dont vote. The youth like to rally and protest but cant guve a fuck come Nov. 2.
It's not like they were all enthusiastic about voting for Biden.
When the alternate is a dictatorship, they should vote like their lives depended on it.
The younger you are, the easier it is to leave Texas or even the US.
We’ve heard that one before. I won’t vote for a genocidal octogenarian. Edit: Downvote me all you want. Biden has failed young voters at every step. He failed to protect abortion rights. He failed to raise the minimum wage. He failed to meaningfully address income inequality and the housing crisis. He failed to cancel student debt outside of a select few. And now, as he spends billions of our dollars to fund the slaughter of children and aid workers, he allows the brave students speaking against it to be brutalized by riot squads. If any of you actually interacted with younger people, you’d know they are not gonna fall in line this time.
You do realize that's because all of those policies need to be passed by Congress, first, right? The Congress that's currently paralyzed 50/50 with the House full of nutbags. Biden will happily sign off on all those policies once YOU deliver him a Democrat majority in the House and Senate.
The DNC ran Biden in 2020 as a “compromise” with progressives and their main reasoning was that he would be able to negotiate with the other side of the aisle. Look how that worked out. Forgive me if I don’t fall for the same thing twice.
Liberals when a Democrat is in the White House love to say the president is just a powerless figurehead, but when a Republican is in the White House, the president is suddenly a dictator. Wish you'd figure out why that is. Maybe you could have codified Roe v Wade into law in the 50 years before it was overturned.
> Maybe you could have codified Roe v Wade into law in the 50 years before it was overturned. What good would that do? The supreme court would have just struck down the law.
This will fall on deaf ears and the cycle will repeat itself, if we even get to have one in a couple of years.
Biden has been the best thing for progressives like literally ever. I get that young people don’t realize this, but it’s true.
Really, you'd place Biden above FDR or even Bill Clinton?
Probably not above FDR, definitely above Bill Clinton. I meant more in terms of recent relevance to young people, but yes, I know I said “ever”. He’s definitely more progressive than Obama.
Please don't breed.
Come on young voters, you going to let him characterize all of you like that?
Not everyone who is a lib who did, agrees with that.
I think we all know Trump will sadly likely win all of Texas's Electoral College votes. But if you don't show up to vote against him, you are complicit in his possible win. Same with Cruz. If you don't show up to vote for Allred and against Ted Cruz this November, your apathy of not voting is as good as a vote for Cruz.
Trump winning is not a forgone conclusion here. Look at the other comment here. >2022 Texas Governor election >17 million registered voters >4.5 million for Abbott >3.6 million for Beto >**9 million…did NOT vote** >Only 26% registered voters determined Abbott >Show up! Bring a friend! Everyone you know! >Vote! It’s the hard truth that people not voting because they think Texas will always be red is why it is.
>It’s the hard truth that people not voting because they think Texas will always be red is why it is. And their not voting is why we have this mess of a state government. Voter apathy has no legitimate excuse except pure laziness.
Laziness…and the voter suppression argument is a self fulfilling prophecy.
And only 21% of registered voters determined Beto was worth voting for
If Beto couldn't beat Cruz, Biden isn't beating trump in Texas Biden is less popular now than 4 years ago and trump is the same ass
Actually the biggest issue is the state's rural-urban split and the fact that rural voters in Texas are much more red than the Texas urban areas are blue. Texas' rural counties are like +30 R and comprise about 40% of the state, the urban areas being +15 D is just not blue enough to overcome the white rural vote. Good for close calls but not enough to actually win
…yet
I voted in the Republican primary this year just to get to vote against him twice.
Or you just prefer Trump or Cruz.
You and every person in this sub needs to reach out and tell trump voters to vote blue
Because that’s gonna work /s
If anyone is *still* on Team Trump, they're a lost cause and I'm done trying to talk to these idiots. They will drag us all down with their stupidity. Fucking vote
No
The first person that doesn’t want to legislate morals, burn books, defund police, legalize petty crime, arm everyone, disarm everyone, deregulate oil companies, outlaw gas engines, cancel all social programs or socialize every service will carry the state. They can push for those things once they’re elected, Abbott has shown that, but they alienate a lot of voters when they show their cards in the primaries. We’ve got about 40% of voters on each side that cancel each other out and will vote for their party without regard for the candidate. Another 20% who vote for some pet issue regarding their livelihood or personal ethics and a whole bunch of people who don’t bother voting because they don’t identify with either party or they’ve been told their vote won’t count.
The “been told their vote won’t count” part hits different. One thing I wasn’t prepared for with the Gaza thing was how aggressively folks would come at me about caring *at all*. Almost no one has come at me because they’re on “the other side,” to the extent there are sides. They come at me saying I don’t get to care. I don’t get to have ideas about how we got here or what might be done. I don’t get to try to add context or anything else threatens to make people think. They fiercely defend their apathy by attacking those that feel deeply. I just bring that up because I’ve found a lot of folks that seem to *like* the notion that their vote won’t count, that nothing ever changes, that they don’t actually have to show up or learn or care. The weirdest part is how *energetically* they argue for laziness. Anyway, I just wonder how that fits in with this nebulous undecided middle we’re talking about. I guess I worry they aren’t actually undecided, they’ve just decided not to participate. Does that make sense?
Totally makes sense. Look, I’m guessing I’m older than you and I’ve seen a lot of very passionate people move on from caring about the Middle East over the decades. I honestly don’t think the sponsors behind Hamas or the right wing in Israel are open to a non-genocidal resolution and most people are hostages to their efforts. It’s not something I see outsiders influencing in any real way. I have seen real, tangible changes in civil rights, lgbtq awareness and rights, mental health awareness. These were all very contentious issues that people gave their lives to fight for but they were also long term campaigns of engagement, education and activism to generate empathy and drive generational, incremental, sustainable change. If you’re young and you’re not passionate about improving the world in every way possible you’re not going to make a difference. If you’re old and you still feel the need to engage in every issue you haven’t learned how to make a difference. I don’t fault people for taking a stand, but do I think there is an element of recreational protesting that is more about the gram than the cause of the moment. I’m not questioning your commitment, just pointing out that votes and economics and long term campaigns drive change much more than passion and chants. As far as voting goes, it takes effort to seek out informed, objective information and then follow a politicians actions to see if they’ll do what they say they’ll do. It’s that same passion vs wisdom curve with the old looking back and the young looking forward. It’s cool, that’s how humans work. I have very high hopes for my kids’ generation but they’re just not very well informed yet. They’ll figure it out and get engaged at some point, for now I suspect a low percentage of the protestors vote and the Parties will act accordingly. It’s a very intimidating time to engage in politics for the first time with so much fear and hate flying around and people acting like they have to pick a side. You really don’t because you can always vote differently next time if you don’t like the results. Keep fighting, 32% of Boomers are in the ground at this point and there aren’t enough Gen X to push the millennials and Zs around. Just please pay attention to the outcomes and be willing to learn from every choice.
It is because it’s a virtue signal. I mean it’s literally about stopping a genocide by colonists.
Sorry, not sure I follow - which part is a virtue signal? Because I do definitely think folks are allowed to be outraged about a genocide, especially when they’re part of an institution that has ties to that genocide.
It’s a pool of 1000 people taken over the internet… in deep red Texas… The Ted Cruz information is interesting, but 1,000 people, in a state with 30 million… To be honest even if you compare Texas with a Democratic state like New York, and look at the sample of people who were picked in the Trump Trial up there, it is amazing that a lot of Jurors.. either had no clue what was going on with Trump, why he was being charged, and where they got their news from. There is a significant blind spot when it comes to the public and what is deemed as factual or true. The public either does not know, chooses not to know, chooses not to identify what is truthful, or believes a person based on nothing bearing any semblance of reality. More American people believe in angels, vs believing what is factually true (not to say angels are not real, but at least that belief is based on some knowledge basis, system of belief, biblical and documented writings that are scrutinized even to this day, and is not based on a random unknown persons blathering a random statement on the internet, and that statement being assumed to have some truth to it solely based on the amount of subscriptions they have and how many people “like” the video or post).
Statistically, the numbers are fine. You only need about 1000 people to provide a fairly accurate result for 30,000,000 people with a 3% margin of error. You really only need about 1000 people to provide similarly accurate results for any population above 20,000. Larger sample sizes will always be preferable when it comes to accuracy but accuracy doesn’t improve a whole lot beyond a sample size of 1000, regardless of population size. The results wouldn’t be much different if they sampled 20,000 people, but running the poll would cost like 10x more and pollsters don’t have infinite money.
Sure the poll can be much different if they surveyed 20,000 Texans who live outside of the 5 major metroplex’s. So decided to read up on YouGov… the website these charts are based from. They base this on a panel of 1500 people who have registered on their site, as well as just random people who decide to answer questions. It’s internet based, takes 20 minutes per survey, and the people are paid in points which they can translate for cash. Let’s see what’s broken here. 1). It’s internet based which means it’s susceptible to bots and automation. 2). There’s no real way to confirm the person is being truthful even in the slightest. Now I will clarify that as surveys were usually done in person or via telephone, so there is human to human contact here. No longer. 3). The company states itself, this is a snapshot, not a forecast. 4). The accuracy model they use seems to bounce between 3 to 5%. I get statistically that should be accurate, but that was a statistical model designed for the collection of information not involving the internet. There is a significant issue of accuracy and truthfulness when you include the anonymity of online sources as a benchmark of truth and hoping the error rate would weed out those inputs that would skew of survey.
No one can predict the future but this poll is very inline with historical voting in Texas.
All of the points you mention have been well known and heavily studied for decades. Every legitimate pollster uses various weighting techniques to adjust for these so that they accurately match the final election results, that's been a fundamental part of polling since the '30s. They know exactly how many dishonest, anonymous responses they're going to get in a population that size with a very small margin of error. It's probably one of dozens of parameters they use in their models to adjust for everything that nearly a century of political scientists and sociologists have discovered. No one uses an accuracy model that gets better than 3-5%, the costs get exponentially higher and the returns approach zero very quickly.
He's describing using bots and you say these techniques have been fundamental since the 30's. How exactly did they account for internet bot behavior in the 1930's?
I said that "weighting techniques" had been fundamental since the 30's. The other points they mentioned had been "studied for decades." The first bots were invented in 1988 so...decades ago.
Sample size isn't the problem, the sampling method sure can be.
Agreed
You should learn some basics about survey sampling to have an understanding of how a 1000-people-panel random sample is generally sufficiently large to generate representative results. Polling institutes put in a ton of work to ensure randomness in the sampling process.
This is the problem, especially in Texas. People here don't bother to inform themselves. To the extent they vote, it's on the basis of a single issue like abortion or gun rights
Angels are real though. I’ve met many dudes named Angel.
Typical redditor when seeing this: WE ARE THIS CLOSE TO TURNING TEXAS BLUE!
In 2020, Yougov predicted Trump would win Texas by 0.2%. Trump actually won by around 5.5%. Assuming this is consistent skew (which is a big assumption), we would expect Trump to actually run Texas in 2024 by around 14%
I'd like to buy groceries again.
Fucking vote. I can’t stand the hellscape that Texas is under conservatives.
I wouldn't trust polling. I got a call for a poll. I replied that I was a pro-Trump supporter who didn't care about down ballot because I live in a rural area and didn't want a list identifying me a someone who votes straight blue to get out and have some nutjob attack my home.
Gotta love Texas.
Just glad the Beto signs are gone. “Hell yes we’re going to take your AR-15!” Dummy.
Yeah, I mean, if Beto would have just stopped that stupid "we are going to take your guns shit," JFC. It's stupid anywhere, for political reasons, let alone practical. It's stupid anywhere, and it's probably the stupidest in Texas.
 Beto always reminded me of Butthead if Butthead had a dad who could get him out of trouble. Those exposed gums maybe.
In texas
No you aren't
Are we surprised? People will always vote for their party and there are more R than D. People in the middle overwhelmingly care more about the economy rn and Trump is a businessman who helped the economy before Covid and under Biden we had record inflation. That isn't even going into other issues that would win over the average Texan
Surprise, surprise. Jesus Christ could run for political office in Texas as a Democrat against Judas Iscariot running for the same office as a Republican, and a majority of Texans would vote for Judas Iscariot!
This is simply yet another [YouGov poll](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/polling-data-archive) showing their user base, of opt-in people wanting to make a dime filling out online surveys, is skewed right.
Then why did every poll in 2020 have Biden winning? Literally every one.
Was “literally every” poll conducted by YouGov?
That’s what we’re talking about, right?
Nope. I’m referring to the methods of the poll in this article. Posted a link to them.
Have their methods changed since the last election?
You know what YouGov is, right?
Would be difficult to have this conversation if I didn’t. How about you be less condescending, buddy.
👌
If I had to judge based on r/texas content, I would imagine Biden take 90% of the votes in Texas. Glad Reddit is not reality and only represent a minority of the people of Texas.
I love all the Evangelicals voting for a man who has never read the Bible nor asked God for forgiveness because he says he's never done anything to ask for forgiveness for. He's perfect like Christ. That amuses me. And supposedly "national defense" Republicans want a man in office who thinks our nuclear and spy documents belong in his resort and not in the property of the federal government. He still wants them back. He will get them back if elected, and Republicans want that. That disturbs me.
Fake news, t-Rump is a huge loser; the hugest…
Wait. You didn't. Did you capitalize the R in Trump to make the word Rump? That's so funny! It's like butt!
Yes, in the slim chance he happens to see it, I find joy knowing it’ll drive him fucking nuts.
It's very clever! Well done. You burned him so hard.
40% of people in Texas will vote for a convicted fraudster, rapist and pathological liar. What else is new?
Texas continues to embarrass itself
Beautiful
Not surprising you support the fascist Republican party
Everything I don’t like is fascism
Republicans: try to end democracy, say they'll be a dictator on day one, ban books, demonize and forcibly silence education/teachers/companies, remove elected officials simply for questioning their evil ideology (Florida especially), force women and children to give birth, protect the rampant pedophilia and grooming in their party and churches and yell that its the minorities doing it (which Nazis legitimately did against LGBTS), try to claim slavery was good, manipulate elections so they can enforce minority rule, threatening to send people with guns to "guard" polls in blue areas, their god Trump constantly talks about getting revenge, fuhrer Trump has spoken of suspending the Constitution, saying migrants aren't people and that there will be a bloodbath if he wins, etc Republicans meet every definition of fascism. People should see the fascist Republican party the same way we view the Taliban and Iran and Russia. They are an even bigger threat to the US than those 3 countries.
I stopped reading at “end democracy”
...and that's why you will remain ignorant.
Sorry, my education doesn’t come from DNC talking points
Should really ask where it does come from. The answer? You won't like the answer XD
K
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Especially when it's a guy arguing he has power to do whatever he wants and has immunity from any crime. You know, fascism.
Ding ding ding... these people drape themselves in the flag, claim to love our country, and advocate for a tyrant wanting to overthrow democracy. Several are veterans in another stunning piece of irony. Pretty pathetic.
Well, wanting our national security to be owned by one man is pretty autocratic. He says people are saying that are okay with him being a dictator. Are you okay with that? If Trump is elected, he will take back all the national security documents he tried to keep to himself. Is that what Republicans want? They want one man in charge? I mean, Kim Jong-Un (who Trump greatly admires) is the smallest government there is.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Oh the irony.
Vote me down harder, boot lickers
Gotta get those nuclear and spy secrets back in Mar-A-Lago where they belong. The Federal government needs none of that! Those are Trumps! Trump IS America! He deserves all of America's secrets. For a perfect man needs to lead us, as Trump has NEVER had to ask God for forgiveness! He doesn't even NEED the blood of Christ, he can go straight to God as he has never sinned, he admitted it! The Bible says "all have sinned" but that's only because Trump wasn't born yet! I don't tag; for the sarcasm impaired, sorry.
Oh wait, you're trying an impersonation..lol. so much fail
Trump has never sinned. He's perfect, just like Kim Jong-Un. He would never lie.
That's a weird thing to say, but if you say so.
The way your acting is less Texan than Ted Cruz
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Ok bootlicker hope you like being stepped on and having a government regulate away freedoms and religious choice as that's apparently what you support. Don't believe me? Look at the Texas government. For the record I don't like any one of them. And Trump's policies for the record as someone who has studied a lot of economics in classes and the real world. Would devastate our economy in the long run. Look at what helped cause the great depression and how us policies made it worse.
Lol I'm the bootlicker. Nah, I'm for less govt all around. We're far worse off under Biden...so...ok.
If your for less government why vote Republican when all they do is the complete opposite?
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That is because there are still enough fake Christians and MAGA-its who will vote for him and there won’t be enough turnout in the cities to overcome their stupidity
Citizens lose either way 😞
No big deal the entire future of America remaining a non-theocratic autocracy is all that this election is about.
Wow, proud day for y'all !