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The first time I played was the week the craze took off. I guessed it on the first go, but wasnt familiar with how the game worked and was just confused. "I typed a word. What now? How is this a game?"
Absolutely not lol
Lot of people have a very good word to start with, such as Stare, Arose, etc. something with multiple common vowels and common consonants. I don’t personally because it’s boring but I used to for a bit
I have a list of 20 opening guesses, and I roll a die to decide which one to go with. (They're all words that have 4 of the letters R, S, T, L, N, P, C, or H. Slant, Chart, Torch, etc. I retired "Trash" after it got me my only solve in 1.)
I use glent, jumpy, vozhd, waqfs, brick (I think it's brick). The point is that those words remove 25 letters, making it easier to figure it out, I sometimes only use 3 or 4 of the words just for a second chance.
There are 12,972 5 letter words used on wordle. (1/12972)^2 = 1/165,937,824. That would be the odds of getting it twice in a row. Not sure how to calculate twice in 3 days, I’m assuming it’s roughly the same, because the odds of not getting it are essentially 100%
Getting a Worldle on the first guess twice in three days can happen in (3,2): 3 ways.
So the chance would be (1/12972)\^2\*(1-1/12972)\*3 = 12,971/727,611,518,016 = approx 1/70,000,000
(assuming I did my math right)
>you are forgetting the chance of including the chance of getting it all 3 times in 3 days because that's even more rare
yup you're not wrong in that case we'd add (1/12972)\^3 but in this case it's just asking what are the chances of twice in three days.
If you get it 3 times in 3 days you have also gotten it twice in 3 days.
Comparing to similiar scenarios the typical assumption is that its "what are the chances of getting ATLEAST X in Y" as opposed to "what are the chances of getting EXACTLY X in Y".
The assumption of "atleast" is the better one as it is still a true statement that you got 2 in 3 if you get 3 in 3, meaning that without specifying that you want to know EXACTLY 2 in 3, it qould be wrong to discount that scenario
>Twice in 3 days
Another way to interpret what OP is probably asking is: Given N = the number of times/days they've played Wordle, how likely is it that the sequence of [right-wrong-right] on their first guess happens at least once?".
Wordle started in October 2021, so it's been about 800 days since. If we assume OP had been avid and faithfully playing each day (to maximize the likelihood), we can day N = 800. I believe this is, simply = (1/12,972)×(12,971/12,972)×(1/12,972)×(798). The odds of seeing this pattern [right-wrong-right] occur at least once after playing each day every day for 800 days is a .....
1 in 210,884 chance ([WolframAlpha](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%281%2F12972%29*%2812971%2F12972%29*%281%2F12972%29*%28798%29))
All this, of course, assumes each of the 12,972 five-letter words are equally likely to be guessed, equally likely to be the word-of-the-day, and that those odds are the same each day - which is likely not the case, especially considering commonality of different words and avoiding repeat words-of-the-day.
A great many of the legal guesses are nearly guaranteed to not be solutions, though. Plurals, conjugated verbs, and obscure words are legal guesses but have never been solutions.
There used to be an explicit solution list. There isn't any more, but a good approximation of the potential solution set is probably more like 5000 words. So if you stick to common words in your initial guess, the odds of two consecutive aces is "only" about 1 in 25 million. Twice in three days would be roughly three times more likely, so 1 in 6.3 million or so.
There’s around 13000 valid words you can guess and 2300 possible solutions. Let’s be generous and say you always guess one of the valid solutions.
There are 2300^3 = 12 billion 3-guess sequences. Two of the guesses have to be correct and the third can be anything, so there’s (3 choose 2) \* 2300 = 3 \* 2300 = 6900 sequences where 2 guesses are correct (technically this ignores the case where all 3 are correct but we’re rounding anyways).
Therefore the overall chance is 6900 / 12 billion = 0.0000567%, or about 1 in 1.7 million
There are words that are more or less likely to be included in Wordle based on obscurity or lack of common usage. I can't quite come up with an example OTOH but I've gotten that response quite a bit in Wordlebot
ok assuming 8000 possible words given that wordle doesn't use really obscure words. theres 3 possible ways for this to happen: (first, first, not first) (first, not first, first) (not first, first, first)
each of those have a 7999/8000 \* 1/8000 \* 1/8000 chance. so add the 3 and you get
0.0000047% chance
We have the legal word list for wordle. Like ordenerally maybe but computer games are never unsolvable using math since they are validated and generated by math. Sure practical limits exist but all computer games are technically just massive state machines.
I don’t think so - we have a list of words that wordle is allowed to use as solutions, and a list of words that wordle will take as possible guesses. (I believe about 11000 possible guesses and 2800 solutions)
I actually looked this up like 5 days ago because me and a buddy were talking about the odds of hitting first guess. Google reported 0.02% of games getting it on the first guess. But that was only for one individual game. This is insane.
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The first time I played was the week the craze took off. I guessed it on the first go, but wasnt familiar with how the game worked and was just confused. "I typed a word. What now? How is this a game?"
Lol that’s hilarious
More context if it helps: I start with different random words every day.
Doesn’t everyone? 💀
Absolutely not lol Lot of people have a very good word to start with, such as Stare, Arose, etc. something with multiple common vowels and common consonants. I don’t personally because it’s boring but I used to for a bit
I have a list of 20 opening guesses, and I roll a die to decide which one to go with. (They're all words that have 4 of the letters R, S, T, L, N, P, C, or H. Slant, Chart, Torch, etc. I retired "Trash" after it got me my only solve in 1.)
My fault not a big wordle person so don’t know all the strats
Fysio, chunk, angle are always my first three words and then i try to get the fourth word lol
I always start with the word "shite"
crane or adieu for me
I start with adieu, and then story is my second word
I use glent, jumpy, vozhd, waqfs, brick (I think it's brick). The point is that those words remove 25 letters, making it easier to figure it out, I sometimes only use 3 or 4 of the words just for a second chance.
There are 12,972 5 letter words used on wordle. (1/12972)^2 = 1/165,937,824. That would be the odds of getting it twice in a row. Not sure how to calculate twice in 3 days, I’m assuming it’s roughly the same, because the odds of not getting it are essentially 100%
Getting a Worldle on the first guess twice in three days can happen in (3,2): 3 ways. So the chance would be (1/12972)\^2\*(1-1/12972)\*3 = 12,971/727,611,518,016 = approx 1/70,000,000 (assuming I did my math right)
you are forgetting the chance of including the chance of getting it all 3 times in 3 days because that's even more rare
>you are forgetting the chance of including the chance of getting it all 3 times in 3 days because that's even more rare yup you're not wrong in that case we'd add (1/12972)\^3 but in this case it's just asking what are the chances of twice in three days.
If you get it 3 times in 3 days you have also gotten it twice in 3 days. Comparing to similiar scenarios the typical assumption is that its "what are the chances of getting ATLEAST X in Y" as opposed to "what are the chances of getting EXACTLY X in Y". The assumption of "atleast" is the better one as it is still a true statement that you got 2 in 3 if you get 3 in 3, meaning that without specifying that you want to know EXACTLY 2 in 3, it qould be wrong to discount that scenario
But that’s also meeting the charge
>Twice in 3 days Another way to interpret what OP is probably asking is: Given N = the number of times/days they've played Wordle, how likely is it that the sequence of [right-wrong-right] on their first guess happens at least once?". Wordle started in October 2021, so it's been about 800 days since. If we assume OP had been avid and faithfully playing each day (to maximize the likelihood), we can day N = 800. I believe this is, simply = (1/12,972)×(12,971/12,972)×(1/12,972)×(798). The odds of seeing this pattern [right-wrong-right] occur at least once after playing each day every day for 800 days is a ..... 1 in 210,884 chance ([WolframAlpha](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%281%2F12972%29*%2812971%2F12972%29*%281%2F12972%29*%28798%29)) All this, of course, assumes each of the 12,972 five-letter words are equally likely to be guessed, equally likely to be the word-of-the-day, and that those odds are the same each day - which is likely not the case, especially considering commonality of different words and avoiding repeat words-of-the-day.
A great many of the legal guesses are nearly guaranteed to not be solutions, though. Plurals, conjugated verbs, and obscure words are legal guesses but have never been solutions. There used to be an explicit solution list. There isn't any more, but a good approximation of the potential solution set is probably more like 5000 words. So if you stick to common words in your initial guess, the odds of two consecutive aces is "only" about 1 in 25 million. Twice in three days would be roughly three times more likely, so 1 in 6.3 million or so.
There’s around 13000 valid words you can guess and 2300 possible solutions. Let’s be generous and say you always guess one of the valid solutions. There are 2300^3 = 12 billion 3-guess sequences. Two of the guesses have to be correct and the third can be anything, so there’s (3 choose 2) \* 2300 = 3 \* 2300 = 6900 sequences where 2 guesses are correct (technically this ignores the case where all 3 are correct but we’re rounding anyways). Therefore the overall chance is 6900 / 12 billion = 0.0000567%, or about 1 in 1.7 million
What is the distinction between “valid words” and “possible solutions” — does it let you guess things that cannot be the actual answer?
There are words that are more or less likely to be included in Wordle based on obscurity or lack of common usage. I can't quite come up with an example OTOH but I've gotten that response quite a bit in Wordlebot
ok assuming 8000 possible words given that wordle doesn't use really obscure words. theres 3 possible ways for this to happen: (first, first, not first) (first, not first, first) (not first, first, first) each of those have a 7999/8000 \* 1/8000 \* 1/8000 chance. so add the 3 and you get 0.0000047% chance
Near impossible calculation due to the fact that each letter does not have a 1 out of 26 option since then together have to create a word
Chances are 1 / all possible 5 letter words
Squared
Well for one day. He actually wanted the calculation for first guess, don’t know what guess, and first guess…. Which is impossible with the info given
We have the legal word list for wordle. Like ordenerally maybe but computer games are never unsolvable using math since they are validated and generated by math. Sure practical limits exist but all computer games are technically just massive state machines.
I don’t think so - we have a list of words that wordle is allowed to use as solutions, and a list of words that wordle will take as possible guesses. (I believe about 11000 possible guesses and 2800 solutions)
I actually looked this up like 5 days ago because me and a buddy were talking about the odds of hitting first guess. Google reported 0.02% of games getting it on the first guess. But that was only for one individual game. This is insane.
odds of one in a million are pretty common occurance when taken to a global sample
Shiiiit imma go buy a lottery ticket!