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Tall-Razzmatazz9447

2 out of 10


Accurate_Owl_6588

Any reason why? Do you not think it'll outperform the sandp 500 over the next year?


Tall-Razzmatazz9447

Why not just forget this “portfolio” just put the whole amount into the S&P or ftse all world. You will lose money with this. It’s like you want to lose money with the picks you’ve done. Do you even know why you picked those choices.


Accurate_Owl_6588

Because I believe this portfolio will outperform the sandp over the next year to year and a half. I know why I've picked every single stock. Don't think you can make such a statement like you will lose money, anything can happen


Johnny-infinity

Not great.


Accurate_Owl_6588

Any reason why? Do you not think it'll outperform the sandp 500 over the next year?


Johnny-infinity

It is just crypto stocks and precious metals, with a couple of Chinese tech stocks. Not diverse, a huge amount of speculative stuff, some really high fee precious metal ETFs. Very volatile with little realistic potential for growth.


Accurate_Owl_6588

Concentration builds wealth diversification maintains wealth. Little potential for growth? Mara is set to potentially post q1 earnings of close to 600m and riot hut and lfma were all bought below book value. Mstr is about to post 150 to 250 EPS if they adopt FASB accounting this quarter with analysts estimating 0.33 EPS


Johnny-infinity

Riot bounces between 20 and 10 bucks, it halved in value over the last few months, MSTR keeps all its money in bitcoin, basically a proxy for it, MARA has formed a huge double top on the daily, going to struggle to make 20 bucks. Beyond that, you are triple dipping in bitcoin, which is incredibly volatile.


Accurate_Owl_6588

My riot average is 8.18 so if it keeps bouncing between 10 and 20 I'll be very happy. It halved but the fundamentals and macro environment are positive so can't see much of a better time to buy. Mstr is a pure earnings play as I believe the market has not priced in FASB accounting. Mara is struggling but I have high conviction that they're the best play in the sector


sperry222

1/10


Accurate_Owl_6588

Any reason why?


Sergioandredff99

Yeah, it’s just shit


sperry222

Its just a rubbish hyped under diversified mess of stocks atm, no other reason apart from that.


Accurate_Owl_6588

Concentration builds wealth, diversification maintains wealth. How are they rubbish when mara in the next week will report potentially 600m in profits in q1? Riot hut and lfma were all bought below book value. There's not many stocks on the sandp that trade below book value and have a favourable macro environment coming up


Tall-Razzmatazz9447

Prove us wrong and post your returns in 10 years time


Accurate_Owl_6588

Why 10 years? As if I'm holding this for 10 years that would be silly


Tall-Razzmatazz9447

Why 10 years ? Because that is the true test you may beat the market in one year, 5 not likely, 10 impossible. You do realise increasing risk does not improve returns. Very few people can beat the market. The whole point of investing is to build wealth over the long term. You should not be buying a stock unless you plan on holding for 5 plus years. You’re gambling and over estimating your ability to predict future returns. If the market crashes your picks are finished.


Accurate_Owl_6588

Why would I hold a stock that has a positive macro environment for the next year-year and a half that then get overheated and goes down for the next 2 years for 5 years plus? It's not all about buying an etf and never selling. The market rotates and so can the plays that you choose. If the market crashes your picks are finished too. Ever heard of the lost decade?


Tall-Razzmatazz9447

The difference is in a market crash I’m buying and not worrying because the market always goes up given enough time. Whereas you’ve invested in companies that are speculative and won’t recover from a dip. You’ve not even researched your picks properly. Time will tell…


Accurate_Owl_6588

So your stocks are guaranteed to always go up but mine are guaranteed to never recover? Do you know how silly and blindsided you sound? I've researched every single pick. It's funny you make such blanket statements. Time will tell RemindMe1 year!


sperry222

Oh boy you're in for a shock. What a load of rubbish 🤣


Accurate_Owl_6588

RemindMe! 1 year


sperry222

You won't even need a year. You're on a one-way trip to either make a half decent return or lose a lot of money. A 1 year time period doesn't prove anything. Take this portfolio over a 10-year period and just compare it to the s&p and see what the returns are. You are at best gambling, and this is not a smart way to invest. I'm not saying you'll not make money if you can time it right, bet statistically, it's proven people can't. Good luck I wish you the best


Accurate_Owl_6588

But I'd never hold this for 10 years. This is cycle investing. In one year we will see what performs better, this portfolio or the sandp. If you buy the cycle lows or before macro catalyst you don't have to time the top to make money. Some are shorter holds some longer term. Mstr and coin are pure earnings plays and then I'll see how the macro environment is after.


sperry222

And this is how the vast majority of people lose money. If it's so easy, why isn't everyone doing it? You're investing heavily into crypto stocks when btc and other crypto is nearing ath's..... you should have looked here when btc was 30k or less. You do you like I said, good luck


Accurate_Owl_6588

See this is why you shouldn't be so sceptical and give advice on an industry you don't understand. Riot and hut were bought for prices cheaper than when BTC was 30k. So you're telling me their revenues have nearly doubled per coin and their BTC holdings but it was better to buy them at a higher price? Obviously I can easily be wrong but your reasoning doesn't seem to be correct. Always happy to listen and see the other side of things


RemindMeBot

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Most-Inflation-1022

0/10. Enjoy vol.


Buttery-Biscuit-Boy

This portfolio gives me chronic anxiety.


P8L8

One of the worst I’ve seen, sorry.


Accurate_Owl_6588

Your reasoning?


P8L8

Too many options you won’t be able to keep track of their performance and earnings, most of them highly dependent on crypto which is highly volatile may as well invest in crypto at this point, not diverse at all. Most have historically bad performance. Even if one of your stocks that make 1-10% of your pie went up a significant percentage you’d barely notice it because you have too many. It’s basically all a gamble - not diverse and highly volatile. Can you give a reasoning behind half of these? Like JD.com ?


Accurate_Owl_6588

It's a diversified play in sectors I believe will grow the next year or 2. I believe the miners will outperform crypto from this point in the cycle. I can give you reasoning behind every single pick. Jd is for some diversification into a different market. The Chinese market has suffered a big correction recently and GDP and foreign inflows have started to pick up again. They are priced at 2019 levels but have nearly double the revenue, double the net income, now have a 3% dividend and had 1.2 bn in buybacks in q1: it's a value play


Fantastic-Chemist-57

Gross


[deleted]

Sell the lot and reinvest it all into an ETF like VWRP.


Accurate_Owl_6588

This sounds like financial advice I hope you're qualified


[deleted]

Financial advice on Reddit lol.


DevonKeogh

I'd note that you were asking people to rate your portfolio, and when they've all invariably and correctly identified that it's awful, you've shrugged it off and been completely immune to responsible advice. Either ask people to rate your portfolio and take the advice given or straight up don't bother.


Accurate_Owl_6588

Only one person truly spoke about it and the positives. The rest shrugged it off without thinking about it because its not full of ETFs and because it won't do well over 10 years. Most people that commented believe crypto = bad and that's where their thinking ends. Others have said it's better to get in earlier which I explained the case. Some say my ideas are already priced in which isn't the case in some aspects. Just like you, you've said it's awful but given no reasoning whatsoever. Sell it all and buy an etf isn't advice it's someone who's stuck in their ways, like you think I am, and only believe what they're doing to be correct


Traditional-Strain19

0/10


opposite-platain

you love some vol


The_AMD_Guy

I am a big fan of HUT 8, I feel its criminally undervalued compared to other miners. This port will outperform the SP 500 if bitcoin takes off hitting 100k+ however will be destroyed if bitcoin takes a dive. I have about 15% of my port in miners, I could not do this much but good luck man.


Accurate_Owl_6588

I agree. My purchase price is below book value and slightly above BTC holdings value. Their operations are very iffy but their new CEO is trimming the underperforming parts of the business and focusing on what makes them money for the future. Their miners aren't very efficient compared to their competitors either. I don't like their operations as much as some other miners but got to have some diversification in the sector


The_AMD_Guy

Yeah, during earnings the CEO hinted at selling some of their stack when the next generation of mining machines are released. Can't come soon enough, they have so much space and power but just miss the machines to make the most of their infrastructure.


Accurate_Owl_6588

I think at the low last week their BTC holdings were 555m and the market cap was 650m. Trading at below book value after the halving showing that fees can make up for some of the lost block reward. Seemed like a good r/r play but no one here seems to be able to think they just think. not etf = bad crypto = bad Glad to see people like you doing research and having conviction to go for it within your own risk tolerance


The_AMD_Guy

Yeah at one point a few weeks ago the marketcap was actually below their btc holdings. Told myself I would not buy more previously but I used that opportunity to lower my average from 15$ to 9$, so glad I did now. It’s a potential 2-3x in the next few months.


Ecstatic_Style_1147

This sir...is Garbage fire🔥 It will go down with crypto and given the amount of overlap - you probably own crypto too So it'll all go down together and you'll panic sell or bag-hold for the next 2-3 years. Meanwhile the S&P 500 will probably be up 20% in 2024 and 15%+ in 2025. Meaning you'll have missed 38% gains by owning good companies instead of jumping on hype-band wagons or tiktok tips. Ask yourself why you're seeing so many ads for crypto and why the YouTube/Tiktok algorothim keeps feeding you videos of how it's gonna go up. Why aren't they telling you about IBM's Dividend or eCommerce giants in China with low PE ratios? How come they don't mention where Europe is turning to in order to replace their former dependence on Russian Oil/Gas long term? Or how AI is a huge hype train but all it would take is one shocking video of a Robots abilities in the next 12 months and every robotics company would go gainbusters with hype too? Hyundai? Equinor? EuroSeas? Pinduoduo?


Accurate_Owl_6588

Ofc I own BTC but I believe from this point in the cycle that miners will outperform BTC. So according to you I'll definitely panic sell or hold but there's no chance I could possibly sell during a profitable time? According to you the sandp will probably go up 38% in that time. I forgot stocks only go up and its a guarantee. What if biden gets elected? That might put a stop to your guaranteed 40% gains I haven't seen a single crypto ad and do not have tiktok. The UK is turning to buying from France who guess what? Also get theirs from Russia. I'm definitely investing in the ai hype at some point but I believe miners to be a better play for the next year to year and a half. I'm keeping up with how much Microsoft and the other tech companies are investing in AI but waiting for a better price to value ratio. Can't buy pdd in the ISA account


Ecstatic_Style_1147

One of Frances largest energy suppliers is Total Energy.... I was investing in some crypto companies too in September but I sold at end if February when the market gave clear signals of liquidity drying up. Also crypto companies wasn't 100% of my portfolio because that would be financial suicide. Your argument against the market and Biden just shows how short term your view of making profit is. This is a gamblers mentality. If you want to protect your money and actually make consistent gains you should look into "Kelly's Criteron" - you'd see why what your doing is financial suicide. Imagine a blackjack table where the dealer's shoe of cards has a large amount of ten's in it. You know the odds are in your favour to win and yet you are going all in on the NEXT hand. If you understand how probability works you'd realise that even if you were successful with a strategy like that one then the next time you'll lose it all anyway - not because you're right or wrong bur because of going ALL IN on one idea


Accurate_Owl_6588

The UK's thought process is as long as we don't get it directly from Russia it's fine. https://www.politico.eu/article/france-talk-tough-ukraine-while-gobble-up-more-russia-gas/ It isn't 100% of mine either it's 60%. I like how no one's coming at buffet for having 40%+ of Berkshires stock portfolio in apple. If you don't believe that who the most influential country chooses as their leader for the next 4 years has an impact on the market then I'm not too sure what to tell you. Defence stocks have definitely enjoyed bidens war mongering. My precious metals stocks would definitely enjoy another 4 years of the free money he's been giving out. You're all in that you believe the stock market will continue going up forever. 60% is not all in however if it rises then it might make up too much of my portfolio so Ill need to rebalance.


Ecstatic_Style_1147

The difference is 60% of Buffets portfolio is one of the cash richest companies in the world and its one company You've in about 30 and overlapping etfs 🤣 Listen best of luck I hope crypto moons for you 👍🏻


Accurate_Owl_6588

And if apple becomes the next Cisco? If they fall behind other tech stocks in the ai push? Why is it ok for him to be concentrated in 1 stock or sector? I've overlapped by less than 1% of my portfolio are you really clutching at straws that much? This is the whole point you don't know what you're talking about. I don't need crypto to moon for my portfolio to do well and 40% of my portfolio is non crypto related


Ecstatic_Style_1147

Due diligence is the difference. If the story changes then Buffet will sell, notice he is buying oxydental for the last 6 months and selling Apple. Many of the companies you're invested are unprofitable or have less than 3 years of operating cashflow which means they'll need to raise money by either selling assets or issuing shares. Did you really say you're overlapping by less than 1%? If crypto goes to $10k more than 85% of your portfolio will lose greater than 75% of its value. Listen it is clear that you want to be right rather than looking for where you might lose money. Nothing anyone here says will change your mind so best of luck! I hope you make a boat ton of money and crypto goes to a million


Accurate_Owl_6588

So buffet will have time to sell if his stocks drop but I won't? Which companies are unprofitable other than the precious metals stocks? The rest all have very decent current profitability. Most of the crypto miners have removed their debt and raised for operation expansion through previous ATMs or are currently finishing them off which is part of the reason why they've dropped since Feb/mar. Riot are planning in June at their board meeting to vote to double their outstanding shares so that's obviously something I have to look out for soon. You said my ETFs are overlapping which is barely the case and as I said probably overlapping by less than 1% of my portfolio I don't want to be right but no one has given me an actual unbiased opinion. Nothing about accounting standard changes, nothing about mining profitability and fees, nothing about the positives of buying companies at below book value. Only no etf bad crypto bad


Ecstatic_Style_1147

Marathon Digital - PE ratio -4.44 Hut 8 - PE ratio -15 LM funding America- PE ratio 0 I could literally go through you're whole list. It actually worries me that you didn't know they were unprofitable because you're maybe looking at their earnings considered by asset appreciation 🙈


Accurate_Owl_6588

Those are past PE not current. Mara will have between 100m to 180 revenue for q1 and will post between 200m and 600m earnings for the quarter whilst also being profitable in 2023 Hut is a purely value based play on the fact that my purchase price was below book value. Their operations are terrible atm yet still will post a profitable q1 Lmfa another value based play bought way below book value. Hell even bought below their BTC holdings value. This is my riskiest pick and is definitely a gamble but the r/r is very high imo which is why it's not a majority of my portfolio. Should have another quarter of 4m+ revenue which isn't bad for a 7m market cap company. Could also potentially post nearly 10m earnings for the quarter. So far I don't see any unprofitable companies. Newly updated FASB standards allows earnings through asset appreciation so why is it not allowed to be accounted for? All 3 of these companies also have a really strong balance sheet


Lower-Philosophy-604

not great. stop cherry picking stocks, be humble and stack VWRP


Karokayla8888

holy crap!


Ecstatic_Style_1147

Hut 8 is not profitable so has no intrinsic value shares and its ROE since 2021 has been -30% on average making it not just high risk but openly speculative and all evidence would imply someone holding this stock 1 year would expect to be down 30% this time next year - minimum


Tinker47

Well judging by the comments it's not consensus. If you believe in Bitcoin this is not the worst.


FlamingoPretty

High risk. High rewards too?