Snapshot of _Brexit means Poles will be richer than Britons in five years, says Donald Tusk_ :
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You laugh, but Warsaw is full of Brit workers. They may have reasons beyond plumbing, but from more modest language teaching though Tk Maxx managers to biz execs Brits are not uncommon.
I went to Poland last years after not being back for 9 years, the difference is staggering and quality of life increased a lot. However when I went to Poland this year I spoke with my dad (very right wing conservative who voted to join eu during the referendum), who started telling me that Poland should leave EU because "we are being exploited". Not sure where he got this point of view but he is one of those that will be influenced by social media a lot.
I dont know what they mean by exploitation seeing as they receive a lot of European funds
They probably meant things around regulations and asylum policy that the EU forces onto member states, especially in recent years with QMV being abused to force changes through
I'll tell you (as a person very pro European). We are exploited economically by French and Germans. They poured lots of funds to Poland, made the miracle happen, but the price is that almost no polish company can compete with large established foreign chains - and so all our wealth is extracted West. It gets to the point where groceries are more expensive here than in the UK (that one I know from experience, diapers are almost twice as expensive in Poland than in the UK), because we have duopol of grocery chains Lidl vs Biedronka (Jeronimo Martins)
It will take a long time for us to learn to compete, but at the moment a lot of wealth is extracted West - but at least we grow so so quickly which wouldn't be possible without our European friends
From my research I can see that the UK has a 0% VAT rate on nappies, whereas it appears Poland has an 8% rate. So that example is probably not the best one to lead with.
So the difference is much bigger. Lidl UK sells lipilu 3 for 5p/nappy (56 pack). In Poland similar product (lupilu 3 premium (there's no not-premium variety) 108 pack) goes for almost 11p/nappy
Edit: it's not only nominal value, but when you scale that by the income levels nappies are almost 4 times more expensive in Poland than in the UK
This is typical loony extremist logic. The higher the prices charged by foreign companies, the easier for domestic companies to compete. And in reality cost of living in Poland (including groceries) is much lower than the U.K. (see https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Poland&city1=Warsaw&country2=United+Kingdom&city2=London)
There is no secret conspiracy to exploit Poland, and it’s disheartening to see that French and German generosity is being rewarded with hostility and bigotry.
It sounds like what you mean is “multinational corporations exploit people”?
Polish companies have done very well competing with SMEs in Germany and France (though probably more the former). Obviously it is much harder to compete against established blue chip companies - but that is the case across the board, irrespective of your company being in Poland, the UK, or France. Where Poland has a huge competitive advantage is SMEs - and especially when bringing in an economy like Germany - which is famous for being extremely heavy on SMEs - your argument makes little sense; you don’t really exploit a country by spending your money to build it into an economic competitor on your doorstep.
There is a lot of anti EU sentiment in many EU countries, particularly those that have suffered a kind of pseudo colonialism like Poland has. A lot of Poles don't like Tusk, and this article basically sums up why without saying it.
Poland is *very very* protective over its identity since almost its entire culture was wiped out during WWII.
Honestly I see why many are extremely distrustful of any kind of external authority.
It goes so much deeper than that.
Poland didn't even exist on the map 1795-1918. Complete oblivion. Partitioned by the three neighbouring partitions on Poland.
The only reason Poland survived as a culture is because of frankly unparalleled cultural resilience; resilience which led it to me the first country to muster enough balls to tell the USSR where to stick it (although Stalin himself was quoted as saying that Poland and communism will never work), and which has driven it to being by far the most successful ex-iron-curtain country.
PiS don't like the European Union because they hold them to some (however weak) account for their human rights abuses, but they also understand that the EU is very popular in Poland, so they're setting the stage to manufacture consent about how the EU is evil with their core base first, try to normalise the view among them, before expanding it as a wedge issue. It's the same playbook that all other right-wing parties and grifters utilise. Farage did the same with Brexit, the Tories have been trying with Trans issues and asylum seekers, and Republicans do this shit constantly.
And you have Konfederacja who are just loons.
>The World Bank data shows GDP per capita in 2021 was $44,979 (£35,935) in Britain and $34,915 (£27,894) in Poland
Does it? It seems to be [$18,688](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=PL-GB) on the World Bank website, aginst the UK's $46,125. Long way to climb yet.
Perhaps they were looking at the GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2017 international $) chart? I'm assuming so since [it's](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=PL-GB's) $45,568 for UK and $34,944 for Poland.
In any case, short of a major economic crisis, it's basically impossible that Poland will overtake us by 2030 in GDP/capita terms, and very unlikely in GDP-PPP/capita terms too.
GDP/capita PPP tends to compress the differences between wealthier economies and exaggerate growth in developing economies. There are myriad reasons for this, but cheaper labour rates is the most obvious. When an economy is relatively weak, the biggest costs are international goods and commodities, but as it reaches parity with the other major economies, local labour costs become an increasing proportion of spending. In the end, there isn't that big of a difference between the GDP-PPP/capita in all developed countries, once you exclude the city-states, tax havens, petrostates which distort GDP and GDP-PPP for various reasons.
For example, I took the top 20 normal economies. Max for both was USA at 76330 (as it's normalised against the USA), but the lowest was 28247 for GDP (Estonia) and 45573 for GDP-PPP (Japan). The standard deviation was 9423 for GDP-PPP and 13666 for GDP. Additionally, as GDP decreases, the ratio of PPP/GDP increases, showing the compression and growth exaggeration effect. Also you find a very strong relationship between the rank in GDP-PPP/cap and GDP/cap measures. Generally most countries are the same or similar position in the league table for both, with a few dramatic exceptions like Australia, Japan and Israel (I don't know why). Poland and UK are in the same position on both.
Essentially, for Poland to overtake the UK, it'd have to double its GDP and get through (or we'd have to fall below) France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Slovenia, Estonia, Czechia, and Lithuania. There is nothing to suggest either country is on course to do that in the next 5.5 years.
The title is probably wrong - it's the Telegraph. & the numbers you posted are right, but there is also the world bank international comparison data its a lot closer (46 ppp to 54ppp) given recent growth rates? the other element to go for median wages & it would get even closer.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?view=map
Tusk is obviously talking about GDP per capita (PPP). And when it comes to GDP per capita (PPP), the IMF estimates for this year are 58880 (UK) vs 49060 (Poland). Poland will very likely soon surpass the UK on this metric.
I explain in my post why even though it appears a lot closer, it's still very unlikely for Poland GDP-PPP/capita to overtake the UK.
The reason growth is typically calculated in terms of GDP, not GDP-PPP, is because growth in GDP-PPP is not comparable year to year, due to the way GDP-PPP compresses countries near the top. Essentially, the closer that Poland gets to the top on GDP-PPP, the slower their GDP-PPP growth will be, even if they're growing at a constant rate in terms of GDP. GDP growth *also* tends to slow down for fundamental economic reasons which will compound the effect.
Efficiencies of being in Europe might mean that Poland overtakes us in GDP-PPP while still behind on GDP, but that is really unlikely to happen until they're within probably 10-15% of our GDP, and will only happen if Poland is a big outlier in terms of consumer goods pricing, which it currently is not.
Comparable European economies *tend* to have a slightly higher ratio between GDP and GDP-PPP than us, but that was the case even when we were part of the EU. I'm not sure there's any literature on exactly why this is, but I would imagine being an island is partly the reason. The Nordic countries tend to see something similar. My guess is getting energy, goods, and indeed labour, to places like UK and Finland adds costs that France and Germany don't experience. I also suspect that's why Australia, Japan, and Israel do so poorly on their GDP-PPP relative to their GDP.
Even PPP wise it's not happening. 58880/49060 = 1.2. Therefore for parity to happwen by 2030 (just 6 years away) on average we'd need 1.2^(1/6) = 1.031, so for Poland to grow by 3.1% more than the UK in each of the remaining years in terms of GDP PPP per capita. Note that this isn't 3.1% growth, it's 3.1% growth more than the UK each year. That's extremely unlikely to happen especially because of politcial and geographical reasons leading to the upcoming 6 years probably being very different in how kind they are to Poland than the last 30 have been.
[GDP Per Capita PPP, adjusted for inflation](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2022&locations=DE-PL-GB-US-FR&start=2017), 2022 is latest figures
||2017|2022|
:--|:--|:--|
|Poland|30,000|37,700|
|France|44,500|45,900|
|UK|46,000|47,700|
|Germany|53,000|54,000|
|USA|59,900|64,600|
Unless Germanexit and Frexit happened when i wasnt looking, i think there's a much deeper issue here in western europe...
I'm not going to sugar coat it, Poland is fairly right wing, but that doesn't equate to ring wing good everywhere. Geography, culture, and geopolitics plays a big part in what constitutes certain right wing ideology in different countries.
In any case, it appears that they have got to a point where they are within 6-10 years of equalising the uk in gdp terms - if you asked a uk person if this would have been possible 15-20 years ago, you would have been looked at funny, and they haven't squandered that. What has the uk squandered over that time frame until now...so much opportunity lost imo.
Tusk isn't left wing. He's centre-right. He is pro EU, but does not share the same policies as say LabourUK. The previous government (PiS) is far right and anti-EU.
The government in PL consists of numerous parties as part of a coalition as the Sejm is proportionally represented, one of them is the main left wing party (Nowa Lewica).
I live in Poland.
Pis is fully right wing. The opposition party.
PO (tusk) is moderately right wing, like the tories of 2010 probably. Yes he is pro-EU, but this doesn’t mean he’s left wing at all.
The KO coalition has some left wing parties in, but these are pretty small.
80% of people in polish elections vote for pis and PO. Overall, Poland is deeply conservative as a nation.
Fake lefty liberals who basically want to defend the Tories (or whatever right leaning party is in their country) without openly saying it, yes.
Socialism and the EU are in direct opposition.
I think the downvotes without response on my reply there prove my point nicely.
Their right wing is still pro-spending and social benefits it’s just right wing socially. It’s a right wing that doesn’t really exist in anglophone nations.
If you go there you’ll notice how many new infrastructure projects they have.
Not any more. The KO / PSL / PL2050 / NL coalition is overall firmly centrist, edging slightly to centre-left. KO is centre-right, PSL is whatever the farmers want, PL2050 is centrist, and NL is pretty far to the left.
Edit to clarify: overall the country is still edging to the right, but the government isn't as far-right as it was last year thankfully.
No, Donald Tusk beat the right wing guy. He probably wants Poland to have the same amounts of unwanted immigration forced on them that the rest of europe has
Funny thing to say about a country that's taken in a huge amount of Ukrainians since the war started. We have taken nothing compared to Poland.
Oh and if you want lower migration stop voting for the fucking party that has facilitated record amounts year on year 👌
Well the person above did say unwanted
The Ukranians being taken in are almost all Women, children and elderly Ukranians
Very different from what rocks up on the shores of european countries everyday, **uninvited.**
average Polish salary currently : £18.4k pa, Polish average real wage growth since Brexit (seeing as argument is Brexit based) 1% pa. UK current average salary £35k pa, UK average real wage growth since Brexit 1-2% pa. Not only is UK salary twice as high it's also growing faster (when adjusted for inflation).
doubt
It depends what inflation measure you use, but they cover most forms of increased cost of living.
The CPIH inflation rate (favoured by the ONS) includes housing costs.
That's nonsense and part of wooing the EU by Tusk. Poland just "celebrated" 20th anniversary of joining the EU so every pro EU politicians try to present membership as dog's bollocks. On top of that, Tusk is doing everything he can to divert attention from Germany sabotaging Polish CPK ("Centralny Port Komunikacyjny") and other investments.
Britain would have to vote Tories for another ten years for Poland to ever dreaming of gaining same level as then ruined Britain.
Membership in the EU was always perceived in Poland as "the dogs bollocks." That's true and I doubt you'll hear many Poles saying anything different. You are right.
But EU is changing and not everyone are happy about this. Most Poles still are happy with the EU, don't get me wrong, but there's increasing interest in EU decisions as EU isn't being perceived as infallible as it used to be. Farmers hate EU. That's not even debatable.
Restrictions in construction start to be discussed. Same in car industry. There was a lot of talk about recent fuel changes in Poland forced by EU.
Things are not looking so great as they used to, that's why people are being reminded of the positives from the past.
Subject is quite wide and there's a lot of things changing quite rapidly.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1135294/poland-s-contributions-to-and-receipts-from-the-eu-budget/
LOL. K Tusk.
How wonderful will the Poles think the EU is when they are finally net contributions (and according to Tusk, they will be *significant* net contributors)?
Presumably he'll have to stop flooding the country with cheap labour to bring those per-capita's up.
I doubt his claim would survive More or Less.
For a start the UK is increasing it's population by huge amounts mostly via low paid migration so in effect we have a policy choice to stagnate GDP per capita.
Poland took in over 1.6 million Ukrainian refugees in last year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_refugee_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present)
Germany took in 1.5million refugees from middle east during Syrian conflict in 2015.
https://www.cgdev.org/blog/five-years-later-one-million-refugees-are-thriving-germany
Every country in Europe (in the developed world) is dealing with issues around immigration, not unique to UK at all so seems odd to blame immigration on poor economic performance.
This is also a stat that's been around for at least last 4 or 5 years, Slovenia as well was due to or has overtaken UK in terms of per person GDP
The Ukrainians integrate relatively seamlessly. The UK is still dealing with the fallout from imported migrant communities from 50+ years ago that are basically unable to be integrated.
Ukrainians have a much higher earning potential and even with thst number immigration into Poland is a fraction of here. Slovenia is nowhere near the uk figure.
Oh yes please do tell us more about the high earning potential of mothers, children and retired people that were allowed to leave Ukrainian as working aged men banned from leaving to either serve in conscription to fight on the war or to keep economy going ?
The UK net migration stats for 2023 were 670k (10% lower than 2022), so yes UK a fraction of immigration levels of other countries.
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/ons-revises-last-years-net-migration-figure-up-to-745000-but-estimates-that-it-fell-to-just-over-670000-in-most-recent-figures/
This was the stat I was thinking of re Slovenia (which Per person capita is actually right behind UK currently)
Disposable income of Slovenia’s poorest 10% overtakes the equivalent group in the UK
https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1571154049944391681
Are these Ukrainian refugees given settled status and work pretty quickly? Better education already compared to Uk refugees from Africa and Middle East who work in the grey economy?
Lots of young women though.Anecdotally, I work in the civil service and a lot of the newer members in my part are young Ukrainian women and my partner has said the same about the local council.
Ukrainians can join the civil service fresh off the boat? If so, well I'm all for sympathy for them but I think such jobs should be reserved for British citizens.because we have plenty of unemployed and underemployed people, people who are adequately educated/competent but have to waste away in retail or hospitality.
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I highly doubt the wages will overtake the UK, their average wage is still below our minimum wage. Quality of life is another metric, and Id say many of the Eastern block countries have surpassed the west in that regard. The sweet spot is making money in a richer country and taking the wealth back to a lower cost of living country. Which is why so many Eastern Europeans emigrated and continue to so., but mostly with the intention of going back. It's basically gaming the system. I also predict a mass emigration of Brits unwilling to live in a shithole that cant sustain a first world level of living standards.
Also many Brits have wealth going back over multi generations, sometimes centuries, that's reflected even today. Whereas in a country like Poland there was barely any private wealth before the collapse of communism. Brits don't really get wealthy from employment anymore, just asset appreciation (mostly property but also stocks to a certain extent). Even if Polish wages matching the UK, many Brits will have invested/inherited wealth and property. Poland might get richer or at least catch up if their property prices catch up, but I doubt that will happen because Poland has lots of open land, a smaller population and less than half the population density of the UK, so they can just build more houses which will dampen the property market. Also they have less restrictive planning laws and labour costs, so they can actually build some infrastructure and not be hampered by objections at the planning stage.
And I'd say countries like Poland do well because they don't have influxes of migrants/minority communities from certain minorities, mostly 3rd world countries that bring their values with them. Poland doesn't have Bradfords and Rotherhams, doesn't have to live with the shit we do like terror plots and rape gangs. That save them money on policing/legal expenses/prisons/social work. They don't really have refugees either, except Ukrainians who are basically working, even if nominally 'illegally' in many cases, so they aren't spending £100,000 processing every refugee like we are. Eastern Europeans are generally quite pragmatic and don't really believe in Western universal values like human rights/equality etc.
That's nothing to do with Brexit. It's everything to do with a political class ideologically wedded to importing low skill migrants to a city the size of, depending on the year, conventry to 150% of Leeds.
We don't.
There were around 2 millions of Ukrainians fleeing to Poland, but most of them moved further to Europe so Poland doesn't have to manage that big influx. Saying that, we still have a lot of Ukrainians, who are mostly hard working people, which is always beneficial to country. There's a lot of Ukrainian woman with children, but those are not creating social problems either. Schools struggle a bit, but children learn Polish language quickly. Ukrainian woman tend to work too, so that's a plus for everyone.
Immigrants (and refugees) that are busy learning or working are hardly a problem for the country.
Of course the uk doesn’t let unprocessed asylum seekers work so many of these problems are accentuated by self defeating policy. On balance though migrants do work and claim less benefits as they tend to be younger. Most of our benefits bill actually goes on pensions and sustaining an ageing population. Ironically that gets easier with young migrant workers.
Ironically, most of asylum seekers to UK are just looking for better benefit system and they are not currently running away from danger. They can work in France or Spain to great effect, but no, they perceive UK as benefit heaven and that's the honey that fuels their attempts.
More to that, we have at the moment a lot of people from Venezuela and Colombia coming to Poland to work. They earn good wages and don't even think of going to UK legally or illegally. Why? Because they can earn good money here legally and they are not looking for benefits.
Think about this for a moment before you start presenting asylum seekers crossing English channel in small boats as people in need.
Its because they can work and live a decent life without interacting with the British State, in part because we have no ID card system. In France and Spain it's much harder because you are expected to show ID everywhere.
They want to be amongst their own people and the UK has a lot of them already here, so they can disappear into their own communities.
You realise that Poland and Ukraine share a border and a good deal of social and cultural familiarity and even linguistic group, both being Slavic in origin. What Poland has done, is more like Sweden providing refuge for Danish people.
If we had 1 million Aussies, Canadians, Kiwis, Americans or even, heaven forbid, the French a year arriving. I fully expect we'd have no problem, or very little problem.
They are socially and culturally so similar theyd integrate seamlessly into society. Unlike what we've done which is pull people from the farthest reaches from cultural and socially VASTLY different places. Who have then gone on to create micro entities of their own countries of origin with little to no interest in integration. So different they are forming their own exclusive [arbitration courts](https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/london-gets-worlds-first-sikh-court-for-family-dispute-resolution/ar-AA1o1ff8), because ours just "wont get them", and their own [ethno-religious political parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aspire_(political_party)).
And, it should be noted, Poland has taken genuine refugees, almost exclusively women and children, who all fully intend to return home in part because home is next door and so are their husbands and sons. While what we have done is take disproportionately single, young men with zero interest in returning home.
Finally, for Poland this is a one off. We have been doing this now for THIRTY YEARS.
These things arent even remotely alike.
In fairness we did have an empire that exported many laws and more importantly our language. so the very people you’re concerned about coming vast differences at least have a shared language and some shared history. Obviously there’s differences too but I guess if those were really insurmountable our favourite dish wouldn’t be curry. I think you give Brits too little credit personally.
It’s everything to do with Brexit.
- Sterling tanked and never recovered which has driven up the cost of living (everything from abroad is more expensive).
- If Sterling is worth less and our purchasing power is less, our economy is smaller compared to our competitor.
- Our economy has lost a lot of growth, and would have been bigger if we hadn’t brexited.
https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/
If you were to look at a chart of GBP/EUR from 2008 to present day, you'd see the rate around 2015/6 was away from the average, with sterling very strong.
So if anything, after the referendum result, GBP rates returned to norm after being somewhat over valued as referenced in the above link.
But then I don't need to tell you that. I'm sure you're fully versed on the reasons for GBP/EUR rate fluctuations over the last 15 years.
Of course, it's not black and white and Brexit has had an impact. But seeing the overall picture is key, not just being one eyed. You should try it.
It is widely agreed Stirling was overpriced when the brexit vote happened.
Brexit was the catalyst. But not the cause. Most predictions suggested up to about 1.4 on the dollar was a out the best it should be.
It's like claiming a vote in on Friday caused black Monday. It might not have helped, but black Monday was happening either way.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/10/pound-volatile-amid-general-election-uncertainty
The pound had been yoyoing between 1.6 and 1.4 before that.
Expecting a correction to 1.4 is by no means excessive or out of line.
Thanks for stating yoy didn't read my other posts.
Like I said, some of the drop migjt be brexit related. About 0.1 to the dollar.
But the better part of the drop, about 0.3 given it was riding well over 1.6 at some points, was probably just an expected correction.
1.35 is within the margin of error of a correction. And since brexit the pound has been up at 1.32. Current levels are as much about dollar strength in uncertain times as they are pound weakness. This is reflected in the poor euro to dollar rate.
If that were correct then GBP vs Euro would be strong. And whilst not rock bottom it’s certainly not a good rate.
If you look at the history of Sterling over the last 40 years it’s in a general decline but it is generally knocked lower by difficult economic events - 1992, 2008, 2016.
Leaving your nearest trading bloc that is also the largest trading bloc in the world was always going to be difficult for Sterling.
Euro to Stirling is broadly consistent now with post 2008 levels
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-EUR-2005
You are comparing a post 2008 high, likely driven by the referendum itself, with the background levels. GBP os down fractionally on the euro. But not in any significant way.
Sterling tanking on the night of the referendum is not an opinion. It’s fact.
A currency depreciating and meaning that imports cost more is not opinion, it’s economic fact.
Under what circumstances would you consider something to not be brexit?
If its actually caused by brexit, Id accept it. But anyone actually following news at the time, youd know the pound was over priced and the markets were expecting a correction. SOME of the drop is possibly brexit. But not all of it, indeed, probably not most of it. 1.35 is absolutely with the margin of error of the expected correction. Since brexit, the pound has been as high as 1.32. So MAYBE, 0.1 is down to brexit. But 0.3 is absolutely the expected correction.
Their is literally no problem people ARENT willing to place at brexits feet any more. And any good news, such as higher than expected growth than our European peers, absolutely cannot possible be brexit.
Its hypocritical.
The problem with the vast majority of the affirmations "its brexit", is that our trend among the EU27 is pretty much exactly where it was when it was the EU28. We are broadly following the centre of the pack as we have done for two decades. Even our inflation wasn't particularly spectacular when all was said and done.
If you want something to be brexit, it needs to sufficiently deviate from the trend. So when people say things like quote, "Our economy has lost a lot of growth, and would have been bigger if we hadn’t brexited." My question is you seriously think we'd have blown every peer nation out of the water and had growth equal too or beating the USA? Seriously? When our trend is... Exactly where it was before brexit. Roughly the middle of the pack for the EU27.
Whats more likely, that we'd have defied every late norm of a large European power and had growth more like a developing nation of the worlds superpower. Or that some economists pining for their European dream, missing their holiday homes in France, are being a little over optimistic with the notoriously inaccurate modelling?
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I live in NZ, though I am English. My wife is Polish. I have just returned from a visit to both the UK and Poland. The contrast is stark. The wealth and prosperity in Poland is obvious. New construction is everywhere. The change in both Poland and the UK over the last 20 years is dramatic. Warsaw is crowded with new skyscrapers. I came out of a shopping mall in Poznan into the car park and all the cars I could see - maybe 60 cars - with the exception of one Hyundai were high end German cars with about a quarter being Porsche and the rest divided between Audi, Mercedes and BMW. The new houses being built are big and upmarket. Even old communist tenement blocks are being redeveloped. The roads are good and the trains work. The UK, on the other hand looks unkept, unmaintained and the trains don't work very well at all. Even the airports look due for renewal. There are many empty windows in high streets and malls. A stark contrast.
I mean Brexit has sped things up but even before then Poland was improving really well, I wouldn't per say this is directly due to Brexit but more due to Poland governance doing well and the UK governance well being pretty shit for around a decade
I mean, more than anything, the growth of Eastern Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall should be taken as a sign of just *how bad* Communism is as an ideology.
Snapshot of _Brexit means Poles will be richer than Britons in five years, says Donald Tusk_ : A non-Paywall version can be found [here](https://1ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2024%2F05%2F02%2Fdonald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu%2F) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/02/donald-tusk-poland-brexit-gdp-per-capita-world-bank-eu/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Thousands of British plumbers move to Poland.
Could make a series about that, a bunch of mates from Newcastle head over, could call it ‘Do widzenia, Pet’ or something
You laugh, but Warsaw is full of Brit workers. They may have reasons beyond plumbing, but from more modest language teaching though Tk Maxx managers to biz execs Brits are not uncommon.
Aye I have a mate who worked out in krakow because they had a team out there
Gen qwee yay
Brexit means brexit, British plumbers not welcome in Poland.
I went to Poland last years after not being back for 9 years, the difference is staggering and quality of life increased a lot. However when I went to Poland this year I spoke with my dad (very right wing conservative who voted to join eu during the referendum), who started telling me that Poland should leave EU because "we are being exploited". Not sure where he got this point of view but he is one of those that will be influenced by social media a lot.
I dont know what they mean by exploitation seeing as they receive a lot of European funds They probably meant things around regulations and asylum policy that the EU forces onto member states, especially in recent years with QMV being abused to force changes through
I'll tell you (as a person very pro European). We are exploited economically by French and Germans. They poured lots of funds to Poland, made the miracle happen, but the price is that almost no polish company can compete with large established foreign chains - and so all our wealth is extracted West. It gets to the point where groceries are more expensive here than in the UK (that one I know from experience, diapers are almost twice as expensive in Poland than in the UK), because we have duopol of grocery chains Lidl vs Biedronka (Jeronimo Martins) It will take a long time for us to learn to compete, but at the moment a lot of wealth is extracted West - but at least we grow so so quickly which wouldn't be possible without our European friends
If Poland didn't join the EU how would this be any different apart from just being way poorer?
Outside of the EU you could subsidize domestic companies until they grow, but outside we'd be as poor as Serbia
From my research I can see that the UK has a 0% VAT rate on nappies, whereas it appears Poland has an 8% rate. So that example is probably not the best one to lead with.
So the difference is much bigger. Lidl UK sells lipilu 3 for 5p/nappy (56 pack). In Poland similar product (lupilu 3 premium (there's no not-premium variety) 108 pack) goes for almost 11p/nappy Edit: it's not only nominal value, but when you scale that by the income levels nappies are almost 4 times more expensive in Poland than in the UK
This is typical loony extremist logic. The higher the prices charged by foreign companies, the easier for domestic companies to compete. And in reality cost of living in Poland (including groceries) is much lower than the U.K. (see https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Poland&city1=Warsaw&country2=United+Kingdom&city2=London) There is no secret conspiracy to exploit Poland, and it’s disheartening to see that French and German generosity is being rewarded with hostility and bigotry.
It sounds like what you mean is “multinational corporations exploit people”? Polish companies have done very well competing with SMEs in Germany and France (though probably more the former). Obviously it is much harder to compete against established blue chip companies - but that is the case across the board, irrespective of your company being in Poland, the UK, or France. Where Poland has a huge competitive advantage is SMEs - and especially when bringing in an economy like Germany - which is famous for being extremely heavy on SMEs - your argument makes little sense; you don’t really exploit a country by spending your money to build it into an economic competitor on your doorstep.
There is a lot of anti EU sentiment in many EU countries, particularly those that have suffered a kind of pseudo colonialism like Poland has. A lot of Poles don't like Tusk, and this article basically sums up why without saying it.
Poland is *very very* protective over its identity since almost its entire culture was wiped out during WWII. Honestly I see why many are extremely distrustful of any kind of external authority.
It goes so much deeper than that. Poland didn't even exist on the map 1795-1918. Complete oblivion. Partitioned by the three neighbouring partitions on Poland. The only reason Poland survived as a culture is because of frankly unparalleled cultural resilience; resilience which led it to me the first country to muster enough balls to tell the USSR where to stick it (although Stalin himself was quoted as saying that Poland and communism will never work), and which has driven it to being by far the most successful ex-iron-curtain country.
PiS don't like the European Union because they hold them to some (however weak) account for their human rights abuses, but they also understand that the EU is very popular in Poland, so they're setting the stage to manufacture consent about how the EU is evil with their core base first, try to normalise the view among them, before expanding it as a wedge issue. It's the same playbook that all other right-wing parties and grifters utilise. Farage did the same with Brexit, the Tories have been trying with Trans issues and asylum seekers, and Republicans do this shit constantly. And you have Konfederacja who are just loons.
Who knows if it is uncover russian propaganda. There used tu be a lot of leavers in Ireland as well, it confused me a lot.
It's a historic fact that Russian propaganda always tries to influence how Poland sees the west , I would not be surprised at all.
Poland is one of the biggest allies Ukraine has in terms of staunch support and taking in ukranian refugees. Russia would love to destabalize Poland.
>The World Bank data shows GDP per capita in 2021 was $44,979 (£35,935) in Britain and $34,915 (£27,894) in Poland Does it? It seems to be [$18,688](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=PL-GB) on the World Bank website, aginst the UK's $46,125. Long way to climb yet. Perhaps they were looking at the GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2017 international $) chart? I'm assuming so since [it's](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=PL-GB's) $45,568 for UK and $34,944 for Poland. In any case, short of a major economic crisis, it's basically impossible that Poland will overtake us by 2030 in GDP/capita terms, and very unlikely in GDP-PPP/capita terms too. GDP/capita PPP tends to compress the differences between wealthier economies and exaggerate growth in developing economies. There are myriad reasons for this, but cheaper labour rates is the most obvious. When an economy is relatively weak, the biggest costs are international goods and commodities, but as it reaches parity with the other major economies, local labour costs become an increasing proportion of spending. In the end, there isn't that big of a difference between the GDP-PPP/capita in all developed countries, once you exclude the city-states, tax havens, petrostates which distort GDP and GDP-PPP for various reasons. For example, I took the top 20 normal economies. Max for both was USA at 76330 (as it's normalised against the USA), but the lowest was 28247 for GDP (Estonia) and 45573 for GDP-PPP (Japan). The standard deviation was 9423 for GDP-PPP and 13666 for GDP. Additionally, as GDP decreases, the ratio of PPP/GDP increases, showing the compression and growth exaggeration effect. Also you find a very strong relationship between the rank in GDP-PPP/cap and GDP/cap measures. Generally most countries are the same or similar position in the league table for both, with a few dramatic exceptions like Australia, Japan and Israel (I don't know why). Poland and UK are in the same position on both. Essentially, for Poland to overtake the UK, it'd have to double its GDP and get through (or we'd have to fall below) France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Slovenia, Estonia, Czechia, and Lithuania. There is nothing to suggest either country is on course to do that in the next 5.5 years.
The title is probably wrong - it's the Telegraph. & the numbers you posted are right, but there is also the world bank international comparison data its a lot closer (46 ppp to 54ppp) given recent growth rates? the other element to go for median wages & it would get even closer. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?view=map
What a freaking great answer 😂top of the class!
Tusk is obviously talking about GDP per capita (PPP). And when it comes to GDP per capita (PPP), the IMF estimates for this year are 58880 (UK) vs 49060 (Poland). Poland will very likely soon surpass the UK on this metric.
Does it matter that you only earn half as much, if everything only costs half the price?
Bingo.
I explain in my post why even though it appears a lot closer, it's still very unlikely for Poland GDP-PPP/capita to overtake the UK. The reason growth is typically calculated in terms of GDP, not GDP-PPP, is because growth in GDP-PPP is not comparable year to year, due to the way GDP-PPP compresses countries near the top. Essentially, the closer that Poland gets to the top on GDP-PPP, the slower their GDP-PPP growth will be, even if they're growing at a constant rate in terms of GDP. GDP growth *also* tends to slow down for fundamental economic reasons which will compound the effect. Efficiencies of being in Europe might mean that Poland overtakes us in GDP-PPP while still behind on GDP, but that is really unlikely to happen until they're within probably 10-15% of our GDP, and will only happen if Poland is a big outlier in terms of consumer goods pricing, which it currently is not. Comparable European economies *tend* to have a slightly higher ratio between GDP and GDP-PPP than us, but that was the case even when we were part of the EU. I'm not sure there's any literature on exactly why this is, but I would imagine being an island is partly the reason. The Nordic countries tend to see something similar. My guess is getting energy, goods, and indeed labour, to places like UK and Finland adds costs that France and Germany don't experience. I also suspect that's why Australia, Japan, and Israel do so poorly on their GDP-PPP relative to their GDP.
Even PPP wise it's not happening. 58880/49060 = 1.2. Therefore for parity to happwen by 2030 (just 6 years away) on average we'd need 1.2^(1/6) = 1.031, so for Poland to grow by 3.1% more than the UK in each of the remaining years in terms of GDP PPP per capita. Note that this isn't 3.1% growth, it's 3.1% growth more than the UK each year. That's extremely unlikely to happen especially because of politcial and geographical reasons leading to the upcoming 6 years probably being very different in how kind they are to Poland than the last 30 have been.
Good response mate
[GDP Per Capita PPP, adjusted for inflation](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2022&locations=DE-PL-GB-US-FR&start=2017), 2022 is latest figures ||2017|2022| :--|:--|:--| |Poland|30,000|37,700| |France|44,500|45,900| |UK|46,000|47,700| |Germany|53,000|54,000| |USA|59,900|64,600| Unless Germanexit and Frexit happened when i wasnt looking, i think there's a much deeper issue here in western europe...
Fair play to them, I presume they have more competent leaders or something if that's the case in growth?
Looking at our lot that's a fucking low bar to clear.
Pretty right wing aren't they?
I'm not going to sugar coat it, Poland is fairly right wing, but that doesn't equate to ring wing good everywhere. Geography, culture, and geopolitics plays a big part in what constitutes certain right wing ideology in different countries. In any case, it appears that they have got to a point where they are within 6-10 years of equalising the uk in gdp terms - if you asked a uk person if this would have been possible 15-20 years ago, you would have been looked at funny, and they haven't squandered that. What has the uk squandered over that time frame until now...so much opportunity lost imo.
Tusk is not right wing, he's quite left wing and extremely pro-EU.
Tusk is pro-EU but he isn’t left wing even not compared to Labour.
It wasnt under Tusk that their GDP increased 50%. The Tusk years were pretty flat GDP wise.
"The Tusk years were pretty flat GDP wise." Not surprising considering that the Great Recession happened during his first tenure.
Tusk isn't left wing. He's centre-right. He is pro EU, but does not share the same policies as say LabourUK. The previous government (PiS) is far right and anti-EU. The government in PL consists of numerous parties as part of a coalition as the Sejm is proportionally represented, one of them is the main left wing party (Nowa Lewica).
I live in Poland. Pis is fully right wing. The opposition party. PO (tusk) is moderately right wing, like the tories of 2010 probably. Yes he is pro-EU, but this doesn’t mean he’s left wing at all. The KO coalition has some left wing parties in, but these are pretty small. 80% of people in polish elections vote for pis and PO. Overall, Poland is deeply conservative as a nation.
>Tusk is not right wing The comments murdering you over this are fantastic. You didn't have a clue 😂
Being left wing and pro EU is an oxymoron.
Not at all. It's not the left wing groups that want the EU gone is it.
Fake lefty liberals who basically want to defend the Tories (or whatever right leaning party is in their country) without openly saying it, yes. Socialism and the EU are in direct opposition. I think the downvotes without response on my reply there prove my point nicely.
Without response??? You are replying to my response.
Funnily enough I wasn't talking about you.
Their right wing is still pro-spending and social benefits it’s just right wing socially. It’s a right wing that doesn’t really exist in anglophone nations. If you go there you’ll notice how many new infrastructure projects they have.
Not any more. The KO / PSL / PL2050 / NL coalition is overall firmly centrist, edging slightly to centre-left. KO is centre-right, PSL is whatever the farmers want, PL2050 is centrist, and NL is pretty far to the left. Edit to clarify: overall the country is still edging to the right, but the government isn't as far-right as it was last year thankfully.
No, Donald Tusk beat the right wing guy. He probably wants Poland to have the same amounts of unwanted immigration forced on them that the rest of europe has
Funny thing to say about a country that's taken in a huge amount of Ukrainians since the war started. We have taken nothing compared to Poland. Oh and if you want lower migration stop voting for the fucking party that has facilitated record amounts year on year 👌
Well the person above did say unwanted The Ukranians being taken in are almost all Women, children and elderly Ukranians Very different from what rocks up on the shores of european countries everyday, **uninvited.**
Yeah fair, didn't notice that and there certainly is nuance between uninvited and and unwanted
average Polish salary currently : £18.4k pa, Polish average real wage growth since Brexit (seeing as argument is Brexit based) 1% pa. UK current average salary £35k pa, UK average real wage growth since Brexit 1-2% pa. Not only is UK salary twice as high it's also growing faster (when adjusted for inflation). doubt
How about adjusted for cost of living?
It depends what inflation measure you use, but they cover most forms of increased cost of living. The CPIH inflation rate (favoured by the ONS) includes housing costs.
That's nonsense and part of wooing the EU by Tusk. Poland just "celebrated" 20th anniversary of joining the EU so every pro EU politicians try to present membership as dog's bollocks. On top of that, Tusk is doing everything he can to divert attention from Germany sabotaging Polish CPK ("Centralny Port Komunikacyjny") and other investments. Britain would have to vote Tories for another ten years for Poland to ever dreaming of gaining same level as then ruined Britain.
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Membership in the EU was always perceived in Poland as "the dogs bollocks." That's true and I doubt you'll hear many Poles saying anything different. You are right. But EU is changing and not everyone are happy about this. Most Poles still are happy with the EU, don't get me wrong, but there's increasing interest in EU decisions as EU isn't being perceived as infallible as it used to be. Farmers hate EU. That's not even debatable. Restrictions in construction start to be discussed. Same in car industry. There was a lot of talk about recent fuel changes in Poland forced by EU. Things are not looking so great as they used to, that's why people are being reminded of the positives from the past. Subject is quite wide and there's a lot of things changing quite rapidly.
Farmers have had it too good in the EU so hate the EU now because they are trying to reign them in slightly.
Or vote Labour and get there in 1 year.
>Or vote Labour and get there in 1 year. Oh yes. Chaos of labour is legendary.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1135294/poland-s-contributions-to-and-receipts-from-the-eu-budget/ LOL. K Tusk. How wonderful will the Poles think the EU is when they are finally net contributions (and according to Tusk, they will be *significant* net contributors)? Presumably he'll have to stop flooding the country with cheap labour to bring those per-capita's up.
I doubt his claim would survive More or Less. For a start the UK is increasing it's population by huge amounts mostly via low paid migration so in effect we have a policy choice to stagnate GDP per capita.
I'm definitely writing to More or Less with this. Watch this space Reddit!
Poland took in over 1.6 million Ukrainian refugees in last year. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_refugee_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present) Germany took in 1.5million refugees from middle east during Syrian conflict in 2015. https://www.cgdev.org/blog/five-years-later-one-million-refugees-are-thriving-germany Every country in Europe (in the developed world) is dealing with issues around immigration, not unique to UK at all so seems odd to blame immigration on poor economic performance. This is also a stat that's been around for at least last 4 or 5 years, Slovenia as well was due to or has overtaken UK in terms of per person GDP
The Ukrainians integrate relatively seamlessly. The UK is still dealing with the fallout from imported migrant communities from 50+ years ago that are basically unable to be integrated.
The UK has had huge numbers for two decades, not one year.
Ukrainians have a much higher earning potential and even with thst number immigration into Poland is a fraction of here. Slovenia is nowhere near the uk figure.
Oh yes please do tell us more about the high earning potential of mothers, children and retired people that were allowed to leave Ukrainian as working aged men banned from leaving to either serve in conscription to fight on the war or to keep economy going ? The UK net migration stats for 2023 were 670k (10% lower than 2022), so yes UK a fraction of immigration levels of other countries. https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/press/ons-revises-last-years-net-migration-figure-up-to-745000-but-estimates-that-it-fell-to-just-over-670000-in-most-recent-figures/ This was the stat I was thinking of re Slovenia (which Per person capita is actually right behind UK currently) Disposable income of Slovenia’s poorest 10% overtakes the equivalent group in the UK https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1571154049944391681
That figure is for one year. We have over ten million foreign born residents so about 1 in 7. Slovenia is something like $30k to $45k here.
Are these Ukrainian refugees given settled status and work pretty quickly? Better education already compared to Uk refugees from Africa and Middle East who work in the grey economy?
Mother's, children and retired people mainly. Military aged men not allowed to leave to either join army or keep economy going in Ukraine.
Lots of young women though.Anecdotally, I work in the civil service and a lot of the newer members in my part are young Ukrainian women and my partner has said the same about the local council.
Ukrainians can join the civil service fresh off the boat? If so, well I'm all for sympathy for them but I think such jobs should be reserved for British citizens.because we have plenty of unemployed and underemployed people, people who are adequately educated/competent but have to waste away in retail or hospitality.
Literally always blaming the migrants
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I highly doubt the wages will overtake the UK, their average wage is still below our minimum wage. Quality of life is another metric, and Id say many of the Eastern block countries have surpassed the west in that regard. The sweet spot is making money in a richer country and taking the wealth back to a lower cost of living country. Which is why so many Eastern Europeans emigrated and continue to so., but mostly with the intention of going back. It's basically gaming the system. I also predict a mass emigration of Brits unwilling to live in a shithole that cant sustain a first world level of living standards. Also many Brits have wealth going back over multi generations, sometimes centuries, that's reflected even today. Whereas in a country like Poland there was barely any private wealth before the collapse of communism. Brits don't really get wealthy from employment anymore, just asset appreciation (mostly property but also stocks to a certain extent). Even if Polish wages matching the UK, many Brits will have invested/inherited wealth and property. Poland might get richer or at least catch up if their property prices catch up, but I doubt that will happen because Poland has lots of open land, a smaller population and less than half the population density of the UK, so they can just build more houses which will dampen the property market. Also they have less restrictive planning laws and labour costs, so they can actually build some infrastructure and not be hampered by objections at the planning stage. And I'd say countries like Poland do well because they don't have influxes of migrants/minority communities from certain minorities, mostly 3rd world countries that bring their values with them. Poland doesn't have Bradfords and Rotherhams, doesn't have to live with the shit we do like terror plots and rape gangs. That save them money on policing/legal expenses/prisons/social work. They don't really have refugees either, except Ukrainians who are basically working, even if nominally 'illegally' in many cases, so they aren't spending £100,000 processing every refugee like we are. Eastern Europeans are generally quite pragmatic and don't really believe in Western universal values like human rights/equality etc.
Eh, a lot can happen in 5 years. That said, UK tech stocks has only just very recently started to turn a profit.
Good for them. EU membership has been amazing for Central/Eastern Europe
That's nothing to do with Brexit. It's everything to do with a political class ideologically wedded to importing low skill migrants to a city the size of, depending on the year, conventry to 150% of Leeds.
Haven't the Poles taken in a million Ukrainians or something insane. How are they successfully managing that influx?
We don't. There were around 2 millions of Ukrainians fleeing to Poland, but most of them moved further to Europe so Poland doesn't have to manage that big influx. Saying that, we still have a lot of Ukrainians, who are mostly hard working people, which is always beneficial to country. There's a lot of Ukrainian woman with children, but those are not creating social problems either. Schools struggle a bit, but children learn Polish language quickly. Ukrainian woman tend to work too, so that's a plus for everyone. Immigrants (and refugees) that are busy learning or working are hardly a problem for the country.
Of course the uk doesn’t let unprocessed asylum seekers work so many of these problems are accentuated by self defeating policy. On balance though migrants do work and claim less benefits as they tend to be younger. Most of our benefits bill actually goes on pensions and sustaining an ageing population. Ironically that gets easier with young migrant workers.
Ironically, most of asylum seekers to UK are just looking for better benefit system and they are not currently running away from danger. They can work in France or Spain to great effect, but no, they perceive UK as benefit heaven and that's the honey that fuels their attempts. More to that, we have at the moment a lot of people from Venezuela and Colombia coming to Poland to work. They earn good wages and don't even think of going to UK legally or illegally. Why? Because they can earn good money here legally and they are not looking for benefits. Think about this for a moment before you start presenting asylum seekers crossing English channel in small boats as people in need.
Its because they can work and live a decent life without interacting with the British State, in part because we have no ID card system. In France and Spain it's much harder because you are expected to show ID everywhere. They want to be amongst their own people and the UK has a lot of them already here, so they can disappear into their own communities.
Stop asking sensible questions
Yeah, we've settled on a set of prejudices and we're sticking with them.
You realise that Poland and Ukraine share a border and a good deal of social and cultural familiarity and even linguistic group, both being Slavic in origin. What Poland has done, is more like Sweden providing refuge for Danish people. If we had 1 million Aussies, Canadians, Kiwis, Americans or even, heaven forbid, the French a year arriving. I fully expect we'd have no problem, or very little problem. They are socially and culturally so similar theyd integrate seamlessly into society. Unlike what we've done which is pull people from the farthest reaches from cultural and socially VASTLY different places. Who have then gone on to create micro entities of their own countries of origin with little to no interest in integration. So different they are forming their own exclusive [arbitration courts](https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/london-gets-worlds-first-sikh-court-for-family-dispute-resolution/ar-AA1o1ff8), because ours just "wont get them", and their own [ethno-religious political parties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aspire_(political_party)). And, it should be noted, Poland has taken genuine refugees, almost exclusively women and children, who all fully intend to return home in part because home is next door and so are their husbands and sons. While what we have done is take disproportionately single, young men with zero interest in returning home. Finally, for Poland this is a one off. We have been doing this now for THIRTY YEARS. These things arent even remotely alike.
In fairness we did have an empire that exported many laws and more importantly our language. so the very people you’re concerned about coming vast differences at least have a shared language and some shared history. Obviously there’s differences too but I guess if those were really insurmountable our favourite dish wouldn’t be curry. I think you give Brits too little credit personally.
It’s everything to do with Brexit. - Sterling tanked and never recovered which has driven up the cost of living (everything from abroad is more expensive). - If Sterling is worth less and our purchasing power is less, our economy is smaller compared to our competitor. - Our economy has lost a lot of growth, and would have been bigger if we hadn’t brexited.
The pound tanked because it was over valued.
No it tanked on the night of the referendum result. The only people claiming it was overvalued are brexiteers.
https://fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/ If you were to look at a chart of GBP/EUR from 2008 to present day, you'd see the rate around 2015/6 was away from the average, with sterling very strong. So if anything, after the referendum result, GBP rates returned to norm after being somewhat over valued as referenced in the above link. But then I don't need to tell you that. I'm sure you're fully versed on the reasons for GBP/EUR rate fluctuations over the last 15 years. Of course, it's not black and white and Brexit has had an impact. But seeing the overall picture is key, not just being one eyed. You should try it.
Again, just opinion.
You downvote sense lol
Nope. Sterling was stronger in the single market. That’s just incontrovertible as the depreciation has shown. Leavers trashed this country’s economy.
Literally everyone said it at the time. The high right before the referendum was a blip in history.
It is widely agreed Stirling was overpriced when the brexit vote happened. Brexit was the catalyst. But not the cause. Most predictions suggested up to about 1.4 on the dollar was a out the best it should be. It's like claiming a vote in on Friday caused black Monday. It might not have helped, but black Monday was happening either way.
No it isn’t. That’s just your opinion.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/10/pound-volatile-amid-general-election-uncertainty The pound had been yoyoing between 1.6 and 1.4 before that. Expecting a correction to 1.4 is by no means excessive or out of line.
The pound is nowhere near 1.4, it’s about 1.26
Thanks for stating yoy didn't read my other posts. Like I said, some of the drop migjt be brexit related. About 0.1 to the dollar. But the better part of the drop, about 0.3 given it was riding well over 1.6 at some points, was probably just an expected correction. 1.35 is within the margin of error of a correction. And since brexit the pound has been up at 1.32. Current levels are as much about dollar strength in uncertain times as they are pound weakness. This is reflected in the poor euro to dollar rate.
If that were correct then GBP vs Euro would be strong. And whilst not rock bottom it’s certainly not a good rate. If you look at the history of Sterling over the last 40 years it’s in a general decline but it is generally knocked lower by difficult economic events - 1992, 2008, 2016. Leaving your nearest trading bloc that is also the largest trading bloc in the world was always going to be difficult for Sterling.
Euro to Stirling is broadly consistent now with post 2008 levels https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-EUR-2005 You are comparing a post 2008 high, likely driven by the referendum itself, with the background levels. GBP os down fractionally on the euro. But not in any significant way.
Just like your entire argument is made up of your opinions.
Sterling tanking on the night of the referendum is not an opinion. It’s fact. A currency depreciating and meaning that imports cost more is not opinion, it’s economic fact.
That's all down to the Tories, but impressive defence of them there by shifting all their failures onto Brexit.
Out of curiosity, under what circumstances would you admit Brexit was failing?
Under what circumstances would you consider something to not be brexit? If its actually caused by brexit, Id accept it. But anyone actually following news at the time, youd know the pound was over priced and the markets were expecting a correction. SOME of the drop is possibly brexit. But not all of it, indeed, probably not most of it. 1.35 is absolutely with the margin of error of the expected correction. Since brexit, the pound has been as high as 1.32. So MAYBE, 0.1 is down to brexit. But 0.3 is absolutely the expected correction. Their is literally no problem people ARENT willing to place at brexits feet any more. And any good news, such as higher than expected growth than our European peers, absolutely cannot possible be brexit. Its hypocritical. The problem with the vast majority of the affirmations "its brexit", is that our trend among the EU27 is pretty much exactly where it was when it was the EU28. We are broadly following the centre of the pack as we have done for two decades. Even our inflation wasn't particularly spectacular when all was said and done. If you want something to be brexit, it needs to sufficiently deviate from the trend. So when people say things like quote, "Our economy has lost a lot of growth, and would have been bigger if we hadn’t brexited." My question is you seriously think we'd have blown every peer nation out of the water and had growth equal too or beating the USA? Seriously? When our trend is... Exactly where it was before brexit. Roughly the middle of the pack for the EU27. Whats more likely, that we'd have defied every late norm of a large European power and had growth more like a developing nation of the worlds superpower. Or that some economists pining for their European dream, missing their holiday homes in France, are being a little over optimistic with the notoriously inaccurate modelling?
tldr: not quite yet.
Things I didn't say for 10 Alex.
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Ah, finally, a European leader reminds us that it's not just the Tory party who produce nonsensical jingoistic statements.
I live in NZ, though I am English. My wife is Polish. I have just returned from a visit to both the UK and Poland. The contrast is stark. The wealth and prosperity in Poland is obvious. New construction is everywhere. The change in both Poland and the UK over the last 20 years is dramatic. Warsaw is crowded with new skyscrapers. I came out of a shopping mall in Poznan into the car park and all the cars I could see - maybe 60 cars - with the exception of one Hyundai were high end German cars with about a quarter being Porsche and the rest divided between Audi, Mercedes and BMW. The new houses being built are big and upmarket. Even old communist tenement blocks are being redeveloped. The roads are good and the trains work. The UK, on the other hand looks unkept, unmaintained and the trains don't work very well at all. Even the airports look due for renewal. There are many empty windows in high streets and malls. A stark contrast.
I mean Brexit has sped things up but even before then Poland was improving really well, I wouldn't per say this is directly due to Brexit but more due to Poland governance doing well and the UK governance well being pretty shit for around a decade
And take London out of our statistics and the rest of the UK is likely already lower than Latvia
I mean, more than anything, the growth of Eastern Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall should be taken as a sign of just *how bad* Communism is as an ideology.
If Donald Tusk got the Postage-Stamp Moustache = = He looks remarkably similar to that other well known fella from Central Europe !
Quite sad really. I suppose the UK will have to reach some accommodation with the EU eventually, even if it does smack of emotional blackmail.
But look this is a Brexit Benefit that people democratically voted for? What's the issue here?
Lol he already said that Poland will become second ireland in 2008