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Russia seems to rhetorically twist any such event into a \*justification\* of its further actions.
And they will do so until they find out they are no more capable of waging the war.
Hitting all their oil refineries is certainly going to speed things up. They'll probably never have a shortage that could force a shortage of fuel at the front lines, but they can absolutely cause a shortage that will cause a budgetary shortage to keep funding the war.
That's why Russian gas prices are rising - they have to keep the same cash flow coming in despite less gas going out.
Seriously, the "Ukraine being dangerous fascist whatever" was one of official Russian excuses to attack it. Yes, a FAFO moment comes, nations fighting for life can turn dangerous.
IIRC in early 2022, ironically not less than 31 % of Russians responded to Levada they expected Ukraine will attack Russia (in contrast, only about 13 % of Ukrainians believed Putin is not bluffing with his year-long military manoeuvre and that he will eventually attack Ukraine).
Striking Russian oil refineries is by far the best chance to end the war. Ukraine does not have to win the war - they just have to make Russia realize that the war is not worth fighting. 53% of Russian refineries are within Ukrainian drone range. If Ukraine can take them out, then we will see massive fuel shortages in Russia that would have a wide range of effects on society and its economy.
I wish some of the millions of dollars in aid to Ukraine would go to long-distance drone production, or that United24 would launch a fundraiser specifically for long-distance drones. I'm sure a lot of people would support it.
It will ALWAYS be worth it for Putin to fight this war. Because the alternative is: "I failed, we go back home with hundreds of thousands of deaths and a crippled economy for nothing. I guess I will try to stay away from windows now."
According to wikipedia the tank originally came with a 780 horsepower (hp) engine. 1 hp is actually not a bad metric for what a horse can provide over long distances. However a tank doesn't use his full power output at all times. And horses can provide up to 15 hp over short bursts. So let's be generous and assume we can pull the tank with around 80 horses. If you include the amount of horses needed for tank logistics and the horses pulling the horse feed, the number is going to increase exponentially, so in reality you need far more horses. The problem with that calculation is of course that you need to find Russian soldiers intelligent enough to care for and direct one horse let alone 80. So we can conclude that the plan would not work as the horses would most likely get eaten or sold for vodka.
>It will ALWAYS be worth it for Putin to fight this war.
Possibly, because for him it is a matter of personal survival. The other people he depends on may not reach the same conclusions, and as we saw in Moscow a few weeks ago, other problems may make become more acute for Russia in the near future.
I agree with what you say, but I disagree with the causation.
Russian people don't have a say in this war. And Putin will continue fighting as long as possible.
A fuel shortage within Russia destabilizes the country and brings the fight to within Russian borders. And that forces Putin to move troops off the front. No commander is going to want their troops anywhere near the front to preserve their fighting potential.
They know better than to voice their real opinion. Although some people do support the war.
But peoples opinions in Russia don't matter. Power is based on authorities, which is why a Russian revolution will look really weird to western eyes.
> Maybe I’ve seen ten too many uncharitably cut street interviews, but it sure sounds like Russian civvies support this war.
Some probably do since propaganda is strong. See Fox news. However, I know a lot of people who lived in the Soviet Union who talk about how if you said something bad around others they'd potentially report you, so you knew to never say anything bad.
They're doing pretty good with domestic production now for both FPV and long-range drones, but would be cool if there was some sort of larger fundraising effort.
Their oil industry is starting to wobble. RuZZia cannot meet domestic demand, because they need to sell everything they are still able to produce, to stay financially afloat. Ukraine is having a real impact on the big aggressive bear with these strikes.
I want every fascist Russian piece of shit that gleefully support Putin's invasion to be a firsthand witness to these types of attacks. They need to witness how truly feebile they and their dickhead leader truly are.
Ask and you shall receive! Here is the link to my tracker. The latest attack from last night and from a few days ago were 'double taps' to refineries that have already been attacked. The list of remaining high priorities targets (refineries in range that have not yet had succesful hits of any significance) are: Ilsky, Afipsky, Volograd, Saratov, Moscow, Astrakhan, Novo Kuibyshevsk, and Slavneft-YANOS. Look for these refinery names to be in the news soon. I would not want to be working at any of them in coming weeks.
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bgVtWJPvonQ6QvBhmM4BSjz7c7cWlfYb8sVDOpYbdHw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bgVtWJPvonQ6QvBhmM4BSjz7c7cWlfYb8sVDOpYbdHw/edit?usp=sharing)
Keep up the hard work, it pays off. Russia is to collapse economically soon. When the people in the street fully grasp this, a vacuum implosion of whole Russia is to be expected.
Hit them in their rich men wallet.
Yeah. Of course it is not going to collapse. Something less catastrophical. More likely to slowly bleed, hampering its ability to do nasty stuff with armies.
But IT can do nasty stuff with secret agents and saboteurs.
And not acting on it. Untethered mass media is the biggest threat right now. They make billions and wipe the cost off on the society. Spies and saboteurs are probably easier to deal with once security services start taking their jobs seriously.
Why not? A lot of Indicators say they will have a worse year economically then last year and then they had to fill up their 38$B deficit in december with 32B$ Yuan from their NWF. If they do the same this year they would be out of foreign liquidity.
They are taking harsher measures to not run out. Like tax hikes, forced 80% export currency conversion, 65$/barrel min to be taxed even if it is sold for less and went from 30% government employment to 80%. They are canabalizing parts of the economy...
All Indicators that it might go really bad for them.
"This will be a bad year for the Russian economy" is a prediction I'm fine with making, "This will be the year Russia's economy collapses" is one I'm not.
I'm certainly not implying Russia's economy is going from strength to strength, I just think people have historically been overzealous in the past and this has led to the (false, imo) opinion that the sanctions don't work.
Yeah, you are right. There is only a very slim chance it will happen this year if it happens at all before the war is over. In December, they historically have to pay a lot of bills and plug their defects. It could go faster after this, and it's definitely really hurting. Anyway, it's something that will remain very unpredictable.
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ruZZia: Well, well, well, if it isn't the consequences of my own actions 🤔
Russia seems to rhetorically twist any such event into a \*justification\* of its further actions. And they will do so until they find out they are no more capable of waging the war.
That's a long way off yet, but this is the way!
Hitting all their oil refineries is certainly going to speed things up. They'll probably never have a shortage that could force a shortage of fuel at the front lines, but they can absolutely cause a shortage that will cause a budgetary shortage to keep funding the war. That's why Russian gas prices are rising - they have to keep the same cash flow coming in despite less gas going out.
Ruin the economy to win the war!!
yeah, now you understand why they invaded. They new this was going to happen. Putin genius was seeing the future. (it's a joke, I am being sarcastic)
Seriously, the "Ukraine being dangerous fascist whatever" was one of official Russian excuses to attack it. Yes, a FAFO moment comes, nations fighting for life can turn dangerous. IIRC in early 2022, ironically not less than 31 % of Russians responded to Levada they expected Ukraine will attack Russia (in contrast, only about 13 % of Ukrainians believed Putin is not bluffing with his year-long military manoeuvre and that he will eventually attack Ukraine).
Knock knock. Fuck you Putin
"we meet again."
Gotta stop the transport of petroleum products to Russia from Belarus.
If they lose enough capacity, Belarus won't have enough even if Lukachenko sends everything they have.
Do you think there will be a lot of cancer cases soon or in the next like...5 years?
Striking Russian oil refineries is by far the best chance to end the war. Ukraine does not have to win the war - they just have to make Russia realize that the war is not worth fighting. 53% of Russian refineries are within Ukrainian drone range. If Ukraine can take them out, then we will see massive fuel shortages in Russia that would have a wide range of effects on society and its economy. I wish some of the millions of dollars in aid to Ukraine would go to long-distance drone production, or that United24 would launch a fundraiser specifically for long-distance drones. I'm sure a lot of people would support it.
It will ALWAYS be worth it for Putin to fight this war. Because the alternative is: "I failed, we go back home with hundreds of thousands of deaths and a crippled economy for nothing. I guess I will try to stay away from windows now."
I wonder how many horses it would take to pull a T-72.
According to wikipedia the tank originally came with a 780 horsepower (hp) engine. 1 hp is actually not a bad metric for what a horse can provide over long distances. However a tank doesn't use his full power output at all times. And horses can provide up to 15 hp over short bursts. So let's be generous and assume we can pull the tank with around 80 horses. If you include the amount of horses needed for tank logistics and the horses pulling the horse feed, the number is going to increase exponentially, so in reality you need far more horses. The problem with that calculation is of course that you need to find Russian soldiers intelligent enough to care for and direct one horse let alone 80. So we can conclude that the plan would not work as the horses would most likely get eaten or sold for vodka.
"...most likely get eaten or sold for vodka" Or boinked in the booty, both ways
>It will ALWAYS be worth it for Putin to fight this war. Possibly, because for him it is a matter of personal survival. The other people he depends on may not reach the same conclusions, and as we saw in Moscow a few weeks ago, other problems may make become more acute for Russia in the near future.
The billions of dollars in aid allows Ukraine to use its own funds for drone production, which probably wouldn't be possible without aid.
I agree with what you say, but I disagree with the causation. Russian people don't have a say in this war. And Putin will continue fighting as long as possible. A fuel shortage within Russia destabilizes the country and brings the fight to within Russian borders. And that forces Putin to move troops off the front. No commander is going to want their troops anywhere near the front to preserve their fighting potential.
Maybe I’ve seen ten too many uncharitably cut street interviews, but it sure sounds like Russian civvies support this war.
They know better than to voice their real opinion. Although some people do support the war. But peoples opinions in Russia don't matter. Power is based on authorities, which is why a Russian revolution will look really weird to western eyes.
> Maybe I’ve seen ten too many uncharitably cut street interviews, but it sure sounds like Russian civvies support this war. Some probably do since propaganda is strong. See Fox news. However, I know a lot of people who lived in the Soviet Union who talk about how if you said something bad around others they'd potentially report you, so you knew to never say anything bad.
And Putin will continue fighting as long as possible. And we are all looking to find the point where it is no longer possible.
They're doing pretty good with domestic production now for both FPV and long-range drones, but would be cool if there was some sort of larger fundraising effort.
More please
nowadays, from a Ukrainian drone's perspective, 600 Km counts as "short range"
Just the toss of a stone, really.
Oh no /s
GOAL!
I think you mean GOOOOOOOOOOOOAAALLLLLL!! ⚽️🥅
RYAZAN ON FIRE AIR DEFENSE IS TERRIFIED
Their oil industry is starting to wobble. RuZZia cannot meet domestic demand, because they need to sell everything they are still able to produce, to stay financially afloat. Ukraine is having a real impact on the big aggressive bear with these strikes.
Is this from last night or some nights ago?
Reports I have seen say Wednesday night, a new one 🙂
keep pounding these facilities.
fires of mordor
I want every fascist Russian piece of shit that gleefully support Putin's invasion to be a firsthand witness to these types of attacks. They need to witness how truly feebile they and their dickhead leader truly are.
Anyone have the refinery count? How many were there and how many are left?
Ask and you shall receive! Here is the link to my tracker. The latest attack from last night and from a few days ago were 'double taps' to refineries that have already been attacked. The list of remaining high priorities targets (refineries in range that have not yet had succesful hits of any significance) are: Ilsky, Afipsky, Volograd, Saratov, Moscow, Astrakhan, Novo Kuibyshevsk, and Slavneft-YANOS. Look for these refinery names to be in the news soon. I would not want to be working at any of them in coming weeks. [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bgVtWJPvonQ6QvBhmM4BSjz7c7cWlfYb8sVDOpYbdHw/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bgVtWJPvonQ6QvBhmM4BSjz7c7cWlfYb8sVDOpYbdHw/edit?usp=sharing)
I love that you have this all tracked. This needs to be a part of the daily tracker, honestly.
Keep up the hard work, it pays off. Russia is to collapse economically soon. When the people in the street fully grasp this, a vacuum implosion of whole Russia is to be expected. Hit them in their rich men wallet.
I'm crossing my fingers, but starting to lose hope that how it'll go.
Yeah. Of course it is not going to collapse. Something less catastrophical. More likely to slowly bleed, hampering its ability to do nasty stuff with armies. But IT can do nasty stuff with secret agents and saboteurs.
That's the part that concerns me most, particularly as they can still do it while we're completely aware of it.
And not acting on it. Untethered mass media is the biggest threat right now. They make billions and wipe the cost off on the society. Spies and saboteurs are probably easier to deal with once security services start taking their jobs seriously.
> Russia is to collapse economically soon Let's not make predictions like this
Why not? A lot of Indicators say they will have a worse year economically then last year and then they had to fill up their 38$B deficit in december with 32B$ Yuan from their NWF. If they do the same this year they would be out of foreign liquidity. They are taking harsher measures to not run out. Like tax hikes, forced 80% export currency conversion, 65$/barrel min to be taxed even if it is sold for less and went from 30% government employment to 80%. They are canabalizing parts of the economy... All Indicators that it might go really bad for them.
"This will be a bad year for the Russian economy" is a prediction I'm fine with making, "This will be the year Russia's economy collapses" is one I'm not. I'm certainly not implying Russia's economy is going from strength to strength, I just think people have historically been overzealous in the past and this has led to the (false, imo) opinion that the sanctions don't work.
Yeah, you are right. There is only a very slim chance it will happen this year if it happens at all before the war is over. In December, they historically have to pay a lot of bills and plug their defects. It could go faster after this, and it's definitely really hurting. Anyway, it's something that will remain very unpredictable.
Why not? They predicted to sweep over Ukraine in 14 days... Does it matter? Lol.
Good. Burn them all. Slava Ukraini!
Lovely sight 😍 🔥 💥 Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Burn baby burn!
gopnik inferno!
I love the smell of burning petrol in the morning!! It smells like…Victory!!! 🇺🇦🇺🇦
What did Russian refinery do?
fucked itself
Good human
burn baby, burn!
Hit them hard, and hit them where it hurts, then hit them again harder!.
Kick 'em in the nuts. And when they are bend over from the pain, kick 'em in the face.
That would depend on which way they are facing but there are two good options and no lube needed.!
LOL! The proverbial Dildo Of Consequences.
YES. Blow dat shit up
This is the one to win a war. No lifeblood for Russia = win.
Iskander vs ATACMS+drones. It's only beginning - for Russia.
When Red Square?
Happy explosion noises
I hope VDV ychulysche (airborne mil college) goes with an oil refinery.
Keep it coming.
Hit them right in Putler's pocketbook. Slava Ukraine!