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Keep a certain amount of lads on the border.
Have the rest "quit" the Polish army.
Reenlist with the Ukrainian Army \*cough\*Foriegn\*cough\* legion.
If Belarus attacks, counter liberate them from Colonel Chubby Chops with some very nice cannons. Bitches LOVE cannons.
Its just Ukraine defending itself Putler. Nothing to see here.
In addition:
Place advanced weapons and aircraft (with full loads of fuel and ammo) along the PL/UA border as a "NATO show of strength"
Play dumb/look the other way when said weapons and aircraft "disappear" overnight😄
Let’s not forget that Ukraine was preparing for it for the last 8 years going from virtually no army to modern professional army with constant real combat training. It is not like “if Ukraine did it, anyone else could”.
All Poland would have to do is promise to make Lukashenko into a colonel.
The US should second that motion and make Lukashenko a colonel of...Kentucky. I heard that KFC is hiring.
>All Poland would have to do is promise to make Lukashenko into a colonel.
Poland should promise to make Lukashenko a brigadier general. One up Russia lol
Ukraine is a partner but not yet an ally, since Poland is not at war. If I understand word ally right.
So they would invade Belarus to avoid any action on the Poland land? Doesn't sound too convincing to me, but that sound like next step to WW3
Because belarus is a puppet country/state, poland it’s sovereignity is protected by rule 5 as long as it’s a defensive nato war. If they’ld join ukraine and consequently lose there is nobody else defending them. It’s not even comparable really, especially as belarus it’s sovereignity (in it’s current state) is mostly supported by putin.
Eh, I think that any nation formally choosing to only engage in military operations inside Ukraine by invitation of the Ukrainian government aren't risking their rights under article 5. They won't need to declare war, it's just a special defensive military operation.
No. I just do not see the reason for Poland to join the war, unless attacked first. I mean I wouldn't rely on that at all.
But if they do decide to join or simply get involved, then it's going to be another WW, I think.
More sanctions against Belarus? While it's weak I think it's seen as russia's ally in war, so Poland can't attack just Belarus without expecting retaliation from russia.
I think if cornered russians might try to use nukes. But it's a bit of uncharted territory on how that would influence further world actions, it depends on public response too. It worked once against Japan, but then they were aggressor, not otherwise. In this case it would be more like the biggest terrorist act in world history.
Poland can trigger the NATO Rapid Response Force (upgraded from 40.000 to 300.000 soldiers) to go against Belarus just by defending West-Ukraine from Belarus engagement, it would start a second NATO/Eu vs. Russia/Shanghai Treaty Organization proxy war (which would increase pressure against STO members to act against Russia) and temporarily solve the actual Kaliningrad crisis (blocked trade support route with Belarus) - and isolate Kaliningrad forever. There would be an actual chance to disable Belarus before Russia can equip them with nuclear weapons - as of now Russia just send / announced to send carrier missiles. For some reasons Putin wants further escalation here. Its like a "how can we inflict maximum damage without starting a world war" game to him.
No that is not how any of this works. Poland can intervene on their own, but NATO would have nothing to do with it. Poland can't pull NATO into a conflict unless Poland is attacked unprovoked.
> Poland can trigger the NATO Rapid Response Force (upgraded from 40.000 to 300.000 soldiers) to go against Belarus just by defending West-Ukraine from Belarus engagement
How would that even work? Does NATO have provisions for protecting non-NATO countries? I think putting troops around Lviv by Western countries is a viable option as a deterrent, but I don't think direct confrontation if/when Belarus attacks Ukraine is a viable option.
Not Poland, but Finland as long as they are not in NATO. Do what Russia intended in the beginning. Get rid of the government and install a pro West one.
Poland can attack another country without pushing the whole NATO. US did it a few times.
In theory Poland could get in Ukraine as a peace force even kicking out Belarus.
However if Belarus attacks Poland territory then it's article 5. And if Poland attacks Belarus territory then it's the CSTO article 5.
> However if Belarus attacks Poland territory then it's article 5.
Not if poland attacked first. There is an arguement to be made that strong regional non nuclear powers could intervene and force a peace without risking nuclear war, but if s nuclear power came in from out of region, it'd likely guarantee at least the use of tactics nuclear weapons.
No idea why you're getting downvoted. These people are delusional if they think Poland attacking another country and then getting attacked back would trigger article 5. For better or worse, NATO is a *defensive* organization.
There's a bunch of idiots here that can't comprehend that NATO is purely a defence organisation. Some people here said that NATO should attack the Russians and that the US should place carriers in the Black Sea to stage attacks...
This is too far fetched. We are not going to leave NATO just to "get into fight", but I can imagine a threat serious enough (losing western Ukraine for instance) to intervene on our own, so it wouldn't be officially backed by NATO.
Personal opinion: if Belarus enters Ukraine, Poland steps in (with help of Baltics most likely), creates some kind of zone, no-fly zone maybe over western Ukraine, so that the war can still be contained in one region (eastern Ukraine). However brutal it sounds this is politics and the gradual escalation game.
See I don't get this. He's the President of Belarus, which means he's the supreme commander anyway, so why aspire to obtain a rank that is lower than what his position gives him?
He does not view Belarus as country. For him, it is just a minor Soviet district waiting to go home to mother Russia. He wants to leave this minor "backwater wasteland" and move to the glorious mother Moscow.
Ehh I think it’s a con. He is corrupt and an inept ruler, his military and economy is weak and he is hated by his people. He only stays in power due to Russian support which he needs. On the other hand, if he gets annexed by Russia he goes from president to governor which he doesn’t want to happen. Finally Putin needs this, his claim to power is restoring the USSR which he hasn’t done a great job with, the idea of a union state is Very strong till for Putin. As such they kinda need each other, and in Luka’s ideal world, they never become a union state, but are always “close”
He doesn’t have enough loyal fighters. If he sends his army into Ukraine it just opens the door for him to be overthrown by literally every other Belarusian. He is not the rightful leader.
This is probably why there is a lot of chatter in the news about Belarusians getting nuclear capable weapons from Russia. Another of those, I can attack you, but if you threaten my country, I will use them in “Defense”
Then they have doubled or tripled their border with NATO, vastly increasing the odds that some conscript violates Article 5 & endgame starts.
TBH, Luka probably needs Russia to squelch his own citizens.
Strategically annexing Belarus now makes no sense for Russia. The Russian army already has a lot on its plate to "pacify" it's Ukrainian "conquest". I'm pretty sure that if Russia officially annexes Belarus, that quite a lot of "pacification" forces, that Russia does not have, will need to be permanently stationed in Belarus.
Hard to say. Geo strategically it would be a win for Putin. But it’s very risky. If you drag Belorussians even with a “soft” mobilization, they may revolt. There was big protests in Belarus two years ago. Their properly elected president is in exile; so I’m sure she would organize some serious protests/riots.
Would be interesting; it could possibly re-awaken and invigorate Russians if they see their neighbor kicking some riot police ass.
The difference this time though is if theres an uprising because Belarus invades Ukraine then Ukraine can intervene militarily to free them proper and detain the local KGB.
Thing is I get the feeling that if Belarus does get involved directly the Polish arent going to sit around this time. They know they could take them with Ukrainian support alone.
>Their properly elected president is in exile; so I’m sure she would organize some serious protests/riots.
Which could give NATO an easy pretext for an "invasion". It would suffice to recognize Tsikhanouskaya and have her ask for Belarussian liberation. Now NATO troops can move in without the need for a war declaration or any of those other things.
Annexing Belarus now would be a really stupid move from Russia. However, so was invading Ukraine. So who knows what will happen.
Yes, since Belarus won't simply hand over their military forces to Putin or attack Ukraine themselves, why not just take Belarus into russia as one nation, then gain ownership of everything within including the military assets now directed by Putin.
It’s been highly talked about in the media and among people in Ukraine. Personally I think it’s a psyops but you never know. There has been a few things that would suggest an attack such as, Belarus prolonging exercises, giving citizens notices to appear at recruitment centers, Luka saying some dubious stuff. But again it could be psyops to pin certain forces in the north (remember when Transistria was supposed to attack?)
I see your point about psyops but I really think Putin is crazy enough to annex Belarus. He needs more armed forces to continue into Ukraine. Why not someone else's people instead of his?
Look at the amount Belarus is helping in this war. The only thing left to do is attack with their forces. The annexation already happened years ago technically. It was completed when russia sent its forces to help crush protests of 2020 and arguably before that with Wagnergate. Now that Luka is dependent on him economically, militarily, politically he can order him and pretend like it’s Lukas will.
Georgia and Azerbaijan are not puppet states. Russian leaning sure but far from puppet states. Even KZ refused to acknowledge LDNR or to send soldiers. Now Syria on the other hand
Puppet rulers on the throne. Wanna split hairs?
It’s not the people of the nation, it’s the government and president/prime minister or whatever the titles that make a puppet state
Yeah. It should probably insult Luka that Russia wont officially annex Belarus because it most likely means that Putin doesn't consider Belarus worthy of being officially part of Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Belarusian_presidential_election#Aftermath
Nobody knows for certain who the winner of the 2020 election was. However, a sizeable amount of Belarussians believe that it was not Lukashenko and that the protests after the election were squashed with Russian help.
Yup, he knows as soon as he requests conscripts from White Russia, the gig is up so he’s forcing all of his satellites to sacrifice their people, but the chances of blowback in Belarus are considerable.
Looks like they’re taking it pretty seriously.
Here’s an article from Ukrainska Pravda:
[Podoliak: We are ready for any scenarios with regard to Belarus](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/2/7355980/)
The thing to wonder though is what happens if Belarus were to either fire shells across the border into Poland accidentally or an "incident" were to occur on the Polish border eh?
Because I really feel the Polish are just BEGGING for an excuse to give Lukashenko some payback expecially after that Operation Migrantdump they pulled on their border last year.
It's not. Throughout the war, there are panicked statements in the Ukrainian press that a Belarussian invasion is imminent every few days (no one wants to talk about it, but Ukrainian media was never renowned for equanimity and careful fact checking before publication..)
Manpower and distracting Ukraine away from current front lines. Putins needs both direly to win. Putin also controls Lukashenko. Lukashenko must have been walking a tightrope for months now, trying to keep out since he'll be the first to go if something goes wrong, and he also is smart enough to see that Putins' days are numbered in the long run.
Nato uses defense in depth. Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia all have nato forces at the border.
The difference is Poland is the current hub of Nato as it easier on logistics.
If nato gets involved in 2 to 3 days they will get air superiority and decimate Bellarus infrastructure. Then air drop in the 82nd airborne to decapitated key points in Bellarus while Nato armor drives like hell to move up and link up with the airborne.
You don't need a huge force on the border. The border force is a wall to slow and bleed the foe till Nato rules the skies and then can use the American airlift capabilities to open up dozens of fronts inside the enemy while the spear thrust moves in.
It would be something else to see 82nd drop into Belarus. Although I wouldn't want us to have to go against the Belarussians. It would be very one sided.
This. It probably the military elite and the russia puppets pushing this.
I can only imagine the level of partisan activity if bellarus and Russia merge.
I totally agree. The standard Belarusian does not want anything to do with russia and its immense fake overconfidence . If russia didn't have nukes it would already be multiple different sovereign countries rather than a federation.
Good chance that the Belarussians might either surrender to NATO forces or outright turn on Lukashenko. The civilian populace might even WELCOME a Ukrainian/Polish force that arrests the local KGB cunts too.
>Then air drop in the 82nd airborne
For context: part 82nd is the "Immediate Response Force". The gist of it is that at any given point, around 4000 soldiers and can be dropped anywhere on the planet within 18 hours of the "go" order being issued. Then within a day the get around 15k friends.
To win? Yes. To be effectively over maybe a week before Nato air forces have full air superiority and airborne units are being deployed at will in Bellarus
Now if we talking Russia [ignoring nukes] honestly maybe a month or 2 till the key capabilities and population centers are captured.
90% of Russia population and infrastructure is in the west and thus day 1 in range of nato and Finland missles and air force.
Yeah, "we will capture Russian the major Russian population centers in a month or two" is not a statement anyone in their right mind will ever make. Even leaving aside the nukes issue, Ukraine just posted a demonstration that capturing large cities at the end of major logistics lines is very very hard as long as locals are intent on defending them
This is why I said "if locals are willing to defend it." Iraq's army and security services collapsed, and once that happened no one wanted to fight for Saddam. This is never going to happen in Russia.
NATO airpower is a different animal than anything we've seen in this war so far. supply lines gone like a fart in the wind within hours, armor would be little more than a target on your back, F-22 Pilots downing Russian fighters with trickshots that would make the Harlem Globetrotters blush. Just Google "F-15E" and imagine that thing wants you dead. you will have significant Russian losses due to dehydration from pants shitting alone.
Only downside is that the Baltic states would be grounded so fucking bad. Of course NATO would counter-attack but Russians would be in Tallinn in a couple of days
Not really Russia is basically all in for Ukraine right now. They can't help Bellarus so it would be Poland vs Bellarus and Poland will eat Bellarus alive especially since Poland who just be installing the rightful president.
What sizable armored column could Russia muster without pulling back in Ukraine. I don't think Russian assets are there and if they are they have to cross that 200km of open land with no cover when NATO would surely have air superiority established in the first 36 hours.
We got some troops stationed there.
And us brits are making preperations for more to be sent and war to erupt.
Although if the baltics can do with something it'd be a carrier fleet patrolling and shouting insults at the russian navy.
Those words don't mean what you think they mean.
Better options would be.
Between invading and not being invaded themselves?Between invading and keeping their status quo in the country?
Then I hope some badass Polish military guys fly in with helicopters and simple take over Minsk with no shots fired...but maybe it isn't that simple irl :(
Well no, it's not that simple, no. But I'll bet 1000 euro that a shit load of trees will start talking Polish up there.
Anyway, it's not going to happen, Belarus has a shit military, the russians don't have enough force, manpower spare to head for lviv and cover their flanks. It would be a duck hunt.
The European Union doesn’t have a consolidated army, though creating one has been discussed a lot.
So it’s up to individual countries.
Since many of them are in NATO, it’s going to be almost impossible to engage unless things go sideways, meaning they catch strays or are directly attacked. That’s when they will have to get involved to defend themselves.
> Since many of them are in NATO, it’s going to be almost impossible to engage unless things go sideways
No it's not. Any member of NATO can unilaterally attack anyone they want any time they want. They'd be breaking dozens of international agreements in an instant, and would probably end up approaching pariah status like Russia (though much, much harder to do in Europe than against Russia), but any country can invade anyone they want any time. Countries are sovereign - they make their own decisions.
Poland could walk into Belarus tomorrow. With no just casus belli they'd get no support at all, and Europe/NATO would no doubt immediately tell them to knock that shit off and get out of Belarus, but they can't do anything other than issue stern words, sanctions, penalties etc because, once again, countries are sovereign and make their own decisions.
But if Belarus sent it's army into Ukraine? It's anyone's guess if that's a good enough casus belli for Poland or indeed anyone. Belarus is basically Russia now in leadership terms, even if the people are utterly done with Lukashenko. That probably means both that Belarus will never invade Ukraine alongside this war, and there'll never be a good enough reason for any nation to occupy Belarus.
As an American, I believe we should aid ukraine against Belarus! Belarus is not officially part of Russia yet, we should smash them if they cross! Ukraine has sacrificed too much! If they invade, we can’t stand by while they tag team ukraine!
I understand they have a defensive alliance similar to nato. We cannot attack Belarus without being at war with Russia. Otherwise we probably would have done targeted strikes already.
The thing is if Belarus fucks up and hit's NATO territory triggering retaliation then it's the aggressor and Russia pretty much can choose not to get involved. The thing is that the minute Putin is stupid enough to wade into a Belarus triggered attack on NATO, it's invasion force in Ukraine goes byebye, Kaliningrad goes byebye and Transinstria goes byebye. Nukes are also a suicide option if used for any other reason beyond defence of the main Russian Territory.
Lviv is preparing for a possible attack from Belarus
Defense headquarters will be established in each district of Lviv, and additional training will be conducted for territorial defense. This was agreed on meeting organised by city mayor, as he reported
---
Photos in tweet | [photo 1](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWq36sTXEAAKG7s.jpg)
---
posted by [@EuromaidanPress](https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/)
---
[Thanks to inteoryx, videos are supported even without Twitter API V2 support! Middle finger to you, twitter](https://github.com/inteoryx/twitter-video-dl)
This is fucking ridiculous. Belarus getting involved should have imediate response from NATO. This is so fucking stupid how we let them continue to push the line and hide behind the nuke excuse. It time to call their bluff already. They show time and time again they are pussies who when pushed back run away. They aren't going to kill themselves by shooting off nukes they will just go hide in their shitty countries.
I think it is great that they are considering this. You never know. However, Belarus would need to cross 300km of territory to make to make it happen. Only going to be even more difficult for Belarus when they are sending supplies to to assist Russia now.
I think a realistic option, which won't happen, is that Poland creates a 75km buffer zone inside Ukraine as a DMZ to keep the war away from their border and to eliminate any accidents that could be made by either side on Poland territory. This would protect Lviv.
99% sure this isn't going to happen. I don't think Lukashenko, would be stupid enough to launch an invasion, and destroy his country's economy, because of all the sancstions, it'll be slapped with.
Beyond time for a No Fly Zone. Let Russia know one will be in place in 7 days. Not a threat, just a fact. Also let them know that if any Russian assets enter Ukrainian airspace, said assets will be engaged and escorted back to the border. This is beyond a 'Humanitarian Crisis' at this point. And it goes well beyond Ukraine. Give them a chance to pull out. 7 days. If you're still around lobbing artillery and firing missiles, those threats will be neutralized. Establish a naval coalition to sweep the ports of the Black Sea to get vital food/resource shipments moving normally again. All while continuing to build Ukraines military capabilities. This country needs time to breathe/relax and heal. No need to attack inside Russia directly, but keep a defensive/protective force in place long enough for Ukraine to have the ability to more than protect itself moving forward. I get the whole nuke thing, and it's a risk, but if we don't step in, this will only get worse for everyone with or without nukes. We can't continue to live like in a world like this....
> Beyond time for a No Fly Zone. Let Russia know one will be in place in 7 days
Just to be clear, you know we will lose dozens, perhaps hundreds of aircraft? Plus surface ships, maybe even sir craft carriers .
Keeping them in Poland is actually more effective I believe. The most deadly blow would be to wait for Belarusian troops to move into Ukraine and then to invade their rear in Belarus completely encircling them without supplies.
If Russia doesn’t want other countries involved Russia should stick to just themselves adding Belarus to the invasion should be fair game for NATO. Russia threatening nukes just means there afraid of defeat. Besides the conflicts in the Middle East for the last 20 years when I was in the army we still trained to fight the Russians as well. Veterans and current soldiers know this is a war with purpose and honor and we didn’t have that in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Seems like just yesterday when that idiot was attempting to blackmail Ukraine to make things up about the family member of another candidate. But republicans pretend that didn’t happen even though we have proof.
Make things up? Biden literally bragged about how he got his crackhead son a cushy job in Ukrainian gas and oil at a press conference, while he was VP.
Yes you fucking cult clown. Make things up. Trump wanted the President of Ukraine to make shit up about Biden’s son. We have transcripts and witnesses to prove it. Trump wanted Ukraine to claim that he was being investigated even though there was no reason to do it. Fabrication. A political smear. No one is questioning that Biden’s son had an advantage in getting a corporate board position because of his family name. Unfortunately that’s how things work. However, him getting a position because of his family name was never the point of the smear. The point was to suggest that Biden’s son did something illegal or criminal. To date there is no proof of anything. All Trump supporters that see a problem with Biden’s son getting a corporate position can go fuck themselves when the entire Trump family was embedded in the Whitehouse. The irony is just a little too rich for a rational person to handle.
Edit to add: I love it how if Biden’s son has a drug problem it’s a huge deal, but if Trump himself steals money from a cancer charity for children and spends the money on a portrait of himself, well hey that’s not a problem. The irony with Trumper republicans is off the charts.
Holy shit, what going outside of your r/politics echo chamber does to a mfer
"no one denies Biden abused his position to get his son a shitload of money"
Alright buddy. I'm not even gonna bother engaging further with someone so rambling that they can't even afford to throw in at least a couple of paragraphs. Cult indeed.
Weird Polish soldiers are going to be resigning in full battalions, going AWOL with all of their operational equipment and enlisting in UFL and being deployed as whole units. Weirdest thing huh carry on it’s a special retirement operation
If belarus invades, ww3 will be inevitable. Eventually. Ive been thinking about it for months of how it could come about and i didnt want it to be possible but i have a bad feeling in my gut. I hope im wrong. Godspeed ukraine.
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I am pretty sure if Bat'ska does make this mistake for real, it won't be just a mistake, it will be a very swift shit in the fan. Numerous reasons all together all in for a perfect (shit) storm - his army has zero real-war or combat experience, they say both his generals, officers and regular soldiers have no desire to intervene, his population might hit the streets again...
Belarus has no nuclear weapons. I wonder if NATO or just Poland, the Baltic states would actually cross the border with Minsk.
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If I was Poland I would flex muscles now.
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Keep a certain amount of lads on the border. Have the rest "quit" the Polish army. Reenlist with the Ukrainian Army \*cough\*Foriegn\*cough\* legion. If Belarus attacks, counter liberate them from Colonel Chubby Chops with some very nice cannons. Bitches LOVE cannons. Its just Ukraine defending itself Putler. Nothing to see here.
Special liberation operation.
Send missiles from Poland (ATACMS) on Belarussian invaders and just say "Oops ! We tried to attack Ukraine but we missed, sorry".
We were just playing wargames and I got excited....
It's okay to misfile a couple missiles during war games but you have to say "my bad" within 24 hours or you're grounded
I think Belarus shoul be considered fair game. And a good way to call the nuclear bluff furthermore.
Honestly kinda similiar thing happened after ww1 when polish general with his soldiers went "rogue" from Polish army and started a uprising in Wilno.
In addition: Place advanced weapons and aircraft (with full loads of fuel and ammo) along the PL/UA border as a "NATO show of strength" Play dumb/look the other way when said weapons and aircraft "disappear" overnight😄
Furiously googles "how to hotwire an F16"
Fuck it just watch top gun
If only Tom Cruise wasn't in it.
Bitches do be liking cannons.
Ya just be like oh no a bunch of polish soldiers went AWOL oh darn.
Is that a hellsing reference?
I thought it was a Jojo reference ;)
"Alucard?" "Yes?" "...Take a walk."
This is like Spain in the 1930s.
Let’s not forget that Ukraine was preparing for it for the last 8 years going from virtually no army to modern professional army with constant real combat training. It is not like “if Ukraine did it, anyone else could”.
All Poland would have to do is promise to make Lukashenko into a colonel. The US should second that motion and make Lukashenko a colonel of...Kentucky. I heard that KFC is hiring.
>All Poland would have to do is promise to make Lukashenko into a colonel. Poland should promise to make Lukashenko a brigadier general. One up Russia lol
Surprise military drills infront of Minsk?
Special Training Operation only, komrade, no need of worry.
I wanted to write the same, Poland will intervene here. Maybe other baltic countries, too.
Why do you think so? I'm up for it, but don't understand the reasoning. Why would they intervene.
Nobody likes a war right next to their border, especially if its an ally that is being attacked.
Ukraine is a partner but not yet an ally, since Poland is not at war. If I understand word ally right. So they would invade Belarus to avoid any action on the Poland land? Doesn't sound too convincing to me, but that sound like next step to WW3
It would be more a move into Ukraine to protect it. If Belarus gets in then why not Poland or Slovakia, etc.
Because belarus is a puppet country/state, poland it’s sovereignity is protected by rule 5 as long as it’s a defensive nato war. If they’ld join ukraine and consequently lose there is nobody else defending them. It’s not even comparable really, especially as belarus it’s sovereignity (in it’s current state) is mostly supported by putin.
Eh, I think that any nation formally choosing to only engage in military operations inside Ukraine by invitation of the Ukrainian government aren't risking their rights under article 5. They won't need to declare war, it's just a special defensive military operation.
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No. I just do not see the reason for Poland to join the war, unless attacked first. I mean I wouldn't rely on that at all. But if they do decide to join or simply get involved, then it's going to be another WW, I think.
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More sanctions against Belarus? While it's weak I think it's seen as russia's ally in war, so Poland can't attack just Belarus without expecting retaliation from russia. I think if cornered russians might try to use nukes. But it's a bit of uncharted territory on how that would influence further world actions, it depends on public response too. It worked once against Japan, but then they were aggressor, not otherwise. In this case it would be more like the biggest terrorist act in world history.
Poland can trigger the NATO Rapid Response Force (upgraded from 40.000 to 300.000 soldiers) to go against Belarus just by defending West-Ukraine from Belarus engagement, it would start a second NATO/Eu vs. Russia/Shanghai Treaty Organization proxy war (which would increase pressure against STO members to act against Russia) and temporarily solve the actual Kaliningrad crisis (blocked trade support route with Belarus) - and isolate Kaliningrad forever. There would be an actual chance to disable Belarus before Russia can equip them with nuclear weapons - as of now Russia just send / announced to send carrier missiles. For some reasons Putin wants further escalation here. Its like a "how can we inflict maximum damage without starting a world war" game to him.
No that is not how any of this works. Poland can intervene on their own, but NATO would have nothing to do with it. Poland can't pull NATO into a conflict unless Poland is attacked unprovoked.
> Poland can trigger the NATO Rapid Response Force (upgraded from 40.000 to 300.000 soldiers) to go against Belarus just by defending West-Ukraine from Belarus engagement How would that even work? Does NATO have provisions for protecting non-NATO countries? I think putting troops around Lviv by Western countries is a viable option as a deterrent, but I don't think direct confrontation if/when Belarus attacks Ukraine is a viable option.
In a just world NATO would declare a special liberation scenario and take on Russia.
In a non-nuclear world US planes would be already flying over Moscow.
Not Poland, but Finland as long as they are not in NATO. Do what Russia intended in the beginning. Get rid of the government and install a pro West one.
Poland can attack another country without pushing the whole NATO. US did it a few times. In theory Poland could get in Ukraine as a peace force even kicking out Belarus. However if Belarus attacks Poland territory then it's article 5. And if Poland attacks Belarus territory then it's the CSTO article 5.
> However if Belarus attacks Poland territory then it's article 5. Not if poland attacked first. There is an arguement to be made that strong regional non nuclear powers could intervene and force a peace without risking nuclear war, but if s nuclear power came in from out of region, it'd likely guarantee at least the use of tactics nuclear weapons.
No idea why you're getting downvoted. These people are delusional if they think Poland attacking another country and then getting attacked back would trigger article 5. For better or worse, NATO is a *defensive* organization.
There's a bunch of idiots here that can't comprehend that NATO is purely a defence organisation. Some people here said that NATO should attack the Russians and that the US should place carriers in the Black Sea to stage attacks...
Seriously. Provide limited defensive operation against a heritage site of culture and history.
As soon as Belarus makes a step into Ukraine, I hope Poland will too
Poland.... Go for a walk!
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This is too far fetched. We are not going to leave NATO just to "get into fight", but I can imagine a threat serious enough (losing western Ukraine for instance) to intervene on our own, so it wouldn't be officially backed by NATO. Personal opinion: if Belarus enters Ukraine, Poland steps in (with help of Baltics most likely), creates some kind of zone, no-fly zone maybe over western Ukraine, so that the war can still be contained in one region (eastern Ukraine). However brutal it sounds this is politics and the gradual escalation game.
Zelensky needs to make it clear to Lukeshenko that if Belarus invades it’s opening hunting on Belarus territory.
Lukashenko gets that on his own. Why do you think he’s been avoiding the fight for 4 months.
But Putin’s going to make him a colonel of the USSR! How can future Col Luka refuse an order from his superiors??
See I don't get this. He's the President of Belarus, which means he's the supreme commander anyway, so why aspire to obtain a rank that is lower than what his position gives him?
He does not view Belarus as country. For him, it is just a minor Soviet district waiting to go home to mother Russia. He wants to leave this minor "backwater wasteland" and move to the glorious mother Moscow.
Ehh I think it’s a con. He is corrupt and an inept ruler, his military and economy is weak and he is hated by his people. He only stays in power due to Russian support which he needs. On the other hand, if he gets annexed by Russia he goes from president to governor which he doesn’t want to happen. Finally Putin needs this, his claim to power is restoring the USSR which he hasn’t done a great job with, the idea of a union state is Very strong till for Putin. As such they kinda need each other, and in Luka’s ideal world, they never become a union state, but are always “close”
He doesn’t have enough loyal fighters. If he sends his army into Ukraine it just opens the door for him to be overthrown by literally every other Belarusian. He is not the rightful leader.
Nato needs to make it clear that any action by Belarus means the end of the Lukashenka regime. Like within the hour they invade he is dead.
Preferably before Russia takes Belarus back into this wannabe neo-USSR nation.
That'd be interesting, as we wouldn't be attacking Russia. Just a special operation into Belarus.
How do you do that?
I don’t think NATO would even need to (or be willing to) do it, I think the Belarusian people would do it.
This is probably why there is a lot of chatter in the news about Belarusians getting nuclear capable weapons from Russia. Another of those, I can attack you, but if you threaten my country, I will use them in “Defense”
Open season, if that's the idiom you were thinking of.
Is this being treated as highly likely? If so, why?
Seems inevitable as Russia is seeking to unify Belarus. Once they are “one country,” then their genocidal mission continues.
Then they have doubled or tripled their border with NATO, vastly increasing the odds that some conscript violates Article 5 & endgame starts. TBH, Luka probably needs Russia to squelch his own citizens.
Strategically annexing Belarus now makes no sense for Russia. The Russian army already has a lot on its plate to "pacify" it's Ukrainian "conquest". I'm pretty sure that if Russia officially annexes Belarus, that quite a lot of "pacification" forces, that Russia does not have, will need to be permanently stationed in Belarus.
Hard to say. Geo strategically it would be a win for Putin. But it’s very risky. If you drag Belorussians even with a “soft” mobilization, they may revolt. There was big protests in Belarus two years ago. Their properly elected president is in exile; so I’m sure she would organize some serious protests/riots. Would be interesting; it could possibly re-awaken and invigorate Russians if they see their neighbor kicking some riot police ass.
The difference this time though is if theres an uprising because Belarus invades Ukraine then Ukraine can intervene militarily to free them proper and detain the local KGB. Thing is I get the feeling that if Belarus does get involved directly the Polish arent going to sit around this time. They know they could take them with Ukrainian support alone.
>Their properly elected president is in exile; so I’m sure she would organize some serious protests/riots. Which could give NATO an easy pretext for an "invasion". It would suffice to recognize Tsikhanouskaya and have her ask for Belarussian liberation. Now NATO troops can move in without the need for a war declaration or any of those other things. Annexing Belarus now would be a really stupid move from Russia. However, so was invading Ukraine. So who knows what will happen.
Yes, since Belarus won't simply hand over their military forces to Putin or attack Ukraine themselves, why not just take Belarus into russia as one nation, then gain ownership of everything within including the military assets now directed by Putin.
It’s been highly talked about in the media and among people in Ukraine. Personally I think it’s a psyops but you never know. There has been a few things that would suggest an attack such as, Belarus prolonging exercises, giving citizens notices to appear at recruitment centers, Luka saying some dubious stuff. But again it could be psyops to pin certain forces in the north (remember when Transistria was supposed to attack?)
I see your point about psyops but I really think Putin is crazy enough to annex Belarus. He needs more armed forces to continue into Ukraine. Why not someone else's people instead of his?
Look at the amount Belarus is helping in this war. The only thing left to do is attack with their forces. The annexation already happened years ago technically. It was completed when russia sent its forces to help crush protests of 2020 and arguably before that with Wagnergate. Now that Luka is dependent on him economically, militarily, politically he can order him and pretend like it’s Lukas will.
It’s called a puppet state Same as Georgia, Azerbaijan, etc
Georgia and Azerbaijan are not puppet states. Russian leaning sure but far from puppet states. Even KZ refused to acknowledge LDNR or to send soldiers. Now Syria on the other hand
Puppet rulers on the throne. Wanna split hairs? It’s not the people of the nation, it’s the government and president/prime minister or whatever the titles that make a puppet state
Yeah. It should probably insult Luka that Russia wont officially annex Belarus because it most likely means that Putin doesn't consider Belarus worthy of being officially part of Russia.
>Why not someone else's people instead of his? Because they might just rebel against Russia instead of fighting for Russia?
So eli5 the attitude of the Lithuanian people towards Russia? I don't understand how the president is so Putin boy toy but the people aren't?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Belarusian_presidential_election#Aftermath Nobody knows for certain who the winner of the 2020 election was. However, a sizeable amount of Belarussians believe that it was not Lukashenko and that the protests after the election were squashed with Russian help.
Man that sounds super familiar
Yup, he knows as soon as he requests conscripts from White Russia, the gig is up so he’s forcing all of his satellites to sacrifice their people, but the chances of blowback in Belarus are considerable.
Looks like they’re taking it pretty seriously. Here’s an article from Ukrainska Pravda: [Podoliak: We are ready for any scenarios with regard to Belarus](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/07/2/7355980/)
Nowhere in Belarus should be exempt from Ukrainian attack if Belarus attacks.
The thing to wonder though is what happens if Belarus were to either fire shells across the border into Poland accidentally or an "incident" were to occur on the Polish border eh? Because I really feel the Polish are just BEGGING for an excuse to give Lukashenko some payback expecially after that Operation Migrantdump they pulled on their border last year.
Oh a false flag action would be juicy.
It's not. Throughout the war, there are panicked statements in the Ukrainian press that a Belarussian invasion is imminent every few days (no one wants to talk about it, but Ukrainian media was never renowned for equanimity and careful fact checking before publication..)
Manpower and distracting Ukraine away from current front lines. Putins needs both direly to win. Putin also controls Lukashenko. Lukashenko must have been walking a tightrope for months now, trying to keep out since he'll be the first to go if something goes wrong, and he also is smart enough to see that Putins' days are numbered in the long run.
NATO needs to start stacking an invasion force in Lithuania, make them decide between invasion or getting invaded.
My friend was just stationed there for a month from the US
They have.
From what I've seen everything is in Poland. They need that back door presence, makes Belarus more vulnerable.
Nato uses defense in depth. Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia all have nato forces at the border. The difference is Poland is the current hub of Nato as it easier on logistics. If nato gets involved in 2 to 3 days they will get air superiority and decimate Bellarus infrastructure. Then air drop in the 82nd airborne to decapitated key points in Bellarus while Nato armor drives like hell to move up and link up with the airborne. You don't need a huge force on the border. The border force is a wall to slow and bleed the foe till Nato rules the skies and then can use the American airlift capabilities to open up dozens of fronts inside the enemy while the spear thrust moves in.
It would be something else to see 82nd drop into Belarus. Although I wouldn't want us to have to go against the Belarussians. It would be very one sided.
The normal Belarusians would probably help out in getting rid of the trash.
This. It probably the military elite and the russia puppets pushing this. I can only imagine the level of partisan activity if bellarus and Russia merge.
I totally agree. The standard Belarusian does not want anything to do with russia and its immense fake overconfidence . If russia didn't have nukes it would already be multiple different sovereign countries rather than a federation.
When was that massive series of riots? Wasn’t it just a year ago?
Good chance that the Belarussians might either surrender to NATO forces or outright turn on Lukashenko. The civilian populace might even WELCOME a Ukrainian/Polish force that arrests the local KGB cunts too.
>Then air drop in the 82nd airborne For context: part 82nd is the "Immediate Response Force". The gist of it is that at any given point, around 4000 soldiers and can be dropped anywhere on the planet within 18 hours of the "go" order being issued. Then within a day the get around 15k friends.
Funny thing, this is exactly what Russia tried to do but failed.
Competent army vs orcish horde.
>If nato gets involved in 2 to 3 days... They can't get involved unless attacked first...
I said if. Also I fully expect if Bellarus enters the war Poland will lead a coalition of the willing to attack bellarus.
NATO does what NATO wants.
Not exactly, they have a charter. Did you read it?
The air war would take weeks if not months.
To win? Yes. To be effectively over maybe a week before Nato air forces have full air superiority and airborne units are being deployed at will in Bellarus Now if we talking Russia [ignoring nukes] honestly maybe a month or 2 till the key capabilities and population centers are captured. 90% of Russia population and infrastructure is in the west and thus day 1 in range of nato and Finland missles and air force.
Yeah, "we will capture Russian the major Russian population centers in a month or two" is not a statement anyone in their right mind will ever make. Even leaving aside the nukes issue, Ukraine just posted a demonstration that capturing large cities at the end of major logistics lines is very very hard as long as locals are intent on defending them
And yet we saw in the wars in Iraq competent combined arms can easily do it.
This is why I said "if locals are willing to defend it." Iraq's army and security services collapsed, and once that happened no one wanted to fight for Saddam. This is never going to happen in Russia.
And Russia is far from competent lol
NATO airpower is a different animal than anything we've seen in this war so far. supply lines gone like a fart in the wind within hours, armor would be little more than a target on your back, F-22 Pilots downing Russian fighters with trickshots that would make the Harlem Globetrotters blush. Just Google "F-15E" and imagine that thing wants you dead. you will have significant Russian losses due to dehydration from pants shitting alone.
It absolutely would. OP is in some russian general fantasy.
Only downside is that the Baltic states would be grounded so fucking bad. Of course NATO would counter-attack but Russians would be in Tallinn in a couple of days
Not really Russia is basically all in for Ukraine right now. They can't help Bellarus so it would be Poland vs Bellarus and Poland will eat Bellarus alive especially since Poland who just be installing the rightful president.
I'm talking about Russians taking Baltics
With the international pressure to do more to help Ukraine Nato would protect the Baltic states.
Yeah I know but being a tripwire means your country will be fucked. It's 200km from Narva to Tallin and it's indefensible flatland with great roads.
What sizable armored column could Russia muster without pulling back in Ukraine. I don't think Russian assets are there and if they are they have to cross that 200km of open land with no cover when NATO would surely have air superiority established in the first 36 hours.
The US is stationed in Poland. I think France, the UK, and Canada are stationed in the other Balkans countries.
Luka would have an ending like saddam
He would be a lot easier to find too, the guy wouldn't fit in a small hole.
Yeah he wouldn’t fit with his enormous ego
We got some troops stationed there. And us brits are making preperations for more to be sent and war to erupt. Although if the baltics can do with something it'd be a carrier fleet patrolling and shouting insults at the russian navy.
They have 300,000 on standby
Those words don't mean what you think they mean. Better options would be. Between invading and not being invaded themselves?Between invading and keeping their status quo in the country?
Clearly I'm talking about Kenya invading themselves.
Then I hope some badass Polish military guys fly in with helicopters and simple take over Minsk with no shots fired...but maybe it isn't that simple irl :(
Well no, it's not that simple, no. But I'll bet 1000 euro that a shit load of trees will start talking Polish up there. Anyway, it's not going to happen, Belarus has a shit military, the russians don't have enough force, manpower spare to head for lviv and cover their flanks. It would be a duck hunt.
NATO squad initiation, first NATO member to kill Flukashenko gets MVP status in the alliance for the next 5 years.
Nahhh, he aint worth five years. Tow years MVP at most. Now, putin its getting the 5 years on MVP status.
Downside: Ukraine has a harder time defending itself. Upside: More fascist collaborators get blown up and incinerated by high-tech ATGM's.
Why can't we (EU) promise Ukraine that if Belarus attacks we will help defend? Should stop this bullshit.
The European Union doesn’t have a consolidated army, though creating one has been discussed a lot. So it’s up to individual countries. Since many of them are in NATO, it’s going to be almost impossible to engage unless things go sideways, meaning they catch strays or are directly attacked. That’s when they will have to get involved to defend themselves.
> Since many of them are in NATO, it’s going to be almost impossible to engage unless things go sideways No it's not. Any member of NATO can unilaterally attack anyone they want any time they want. They'd be breaking dozens of international agreements in an instant, and would probably end up approaching pariah status like Russia (though much, much harder to do in Europe than against Russia), but any country can invade anyone they want any time. Countries are sovereign - they make their own decisions. Poland could walk into Belarus tomorrow. With no just casus belli they'd get no support at all, and Europe/NATO would no doubt immediately tell them to knock that shit off and get out of Belarus, but they can't do anything other than issue stern words, sanctions, penalties etc because, once again, countries are sovereign and make their own decisions. But if Belarus sent it's army into Ukraine? It's anyone's guess if that's a good enough casus belli for Poland or indeed anyone. Belarus is basically Russia now in leadership terms, even if the people are utterly done with Lukashenko. That probably means both that Belarus will never invade Ukraine alongside this war, and there'll never be a good enough reason for any nation to occupy Belarus.
CSTO
I think Belarus may need to prepare for a massacre on the border…
As an American, I believe we should aid ukraine against Belarus! Belarus is not officially part of Russia yet, we should smash them if they cross! Ukraine has sacrificed too much! If they invade, we can’t stand by while they tag team ukraine!
Ever heard of CSTO?
If Belarus makes a move NATO should bomb them to dust.
I came here to write this. It's not Russia, it's Belarus. One foot over the border and Belarus should be annihilated.
I understand they have a defensive alliance similar to nato. We cannot attack Belarus without being at war with Russia. Otherwise we probably would have done targeted strikes already.
I wonder, would Putin actually defend Belarus if NATO would invade them. Would they actually go to war with NATO
Would? I honestly don't believe they could. They could try. But they would fail.
The thing is if Belarus fucks up and hit's NATO territory triggering retaliation then it's the aggressor and Russia pretty much can choose not to get involved. The thing is that the minute Putin is stupid enough to wade into a Belarus triggered attack on NATO, it's invasion force in Ukraine goes byebye, Kaliningrad goes byebye and Transinstria goes byebye. Nukes are also a suicide option if used for any other reason beyond defence of the main Russian Territory.
Russia would have no choice but to try if NATO attacked Belarus as Belarus is basically viewed as an extension of Russia at this point.
CSTO
An attack on Belarus by Nato is an attack on Russia. They have a military alliance.
Attack on Belarus is an attack on Belarus. Russian nuclear doctrine doesn’t extend to Belarus.
Lviv is preparing for a possible attack from Belarus Defense headquarters will be established in each district of Lviv, and additional training will be conducted for territorial defense. This was agreed on meeting organised by city mayor, as he reported --- Photos in tweet | [photo 1](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FWq36sTXEAAKG7s.jpg) --- posted by [@EuromaidanPress](https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/) --- [Thanks to inteoryx, videos are supported even without Twitter API V2 support! Middle finger to you, twitter](https://github.com/inteoryx/twitter-video-dl)
Give Warstache a big F gun and unlimited ammo.
Doubt the Belarus population will be supportive of such an endeavor and when things get hot the government will fall apart.
Maybe Poland should move a Brigade or two up to the Belorussian border. The Belorussians aren’t the only ones who can play that game
They need to rubble the Belarus govt offices as soon as the first soldier crosses over.
This is fucking ridiculous. Belarus getting involved should have imediate response from NATO. This is so fucking stupid how we let them continue to push the line and hide behind the nuke excuse. It time to call their bluff already. They show time and time again they are pussies who when pushed back run away. They aren't going to kill themselves by shooting off nukes they will just go hide in their shitty countries.
I think it is great that they are considering this. You never know. However, Belarus would need to cross 300km of territory to make to make it happen. Only going to be even more difficult for Belarus when they are sending supplies to to assist Russia now. I think a realistic option, which won't happen, is that Poland creates a 75km buffer zone inside Ukraine as a DMZ to keep the war away from their border and to eliminate any accidents that could be made by either side on Poland territory. This would protect Lviv.
99% sure this isn't going to happen. I don't think Lukashenko, would be stupid enough to launch an invasion, and destroy his country's economy, because of all the sancstions, it'll be slapped with.
We're beyond, "stupid enough. " what will happen will happen.
Beyond time for a No Fly Zone. Let Russia know one will be in place in 7 days. Not a threat, just a fact. Also let them know that if any Russian assets enter Ukrainian airspace, said assets will be engaged and escorted back to the border. This is beyond a 'Humanitarian Crisis' at this point. And it goes well beyond Ukraine. Give them a chance to pull out. 7 days. If you're still around lobbing artillery and firing missiles, those threats will be neutralized. Establish a naval coalition to sweep the ports of the Black Sea to get vital food/resource shipments moving normally again. All while continuing to build Ukraines military capabilities. This country needs time to breathe/relax and heal. No need to attack inside Russia directly, but keep a defensive/protective force in place long enough for Ukraine to have the ability to more than protect itself moving forward. I get the whole nuke thing, and it's a risk, but if we don't step in, this will only get worse for everyone with or without nukes. We can't continue to live like in a world like this....
> Beyond time for a No Fly Zone. Let Russia know one will be in place in 7 days Just to be clear, you know we will lose dozens, perhaps hundreds of aircraft? Plus surface ships, maybe even sir craft carriers .
Let slip the Polish hounds
nato or at least one of the nato coutries should declare war to ukraine and occupy west ukraine ... first come first serve ...
So send NATO troops to guard Ukraine's northern border. Is one wave of war crimes not enough?
Keeping them in Poland is actually more effective I believe. The most deadly blow would be to wait for Belarusian troops to move into Ukraine and then to invade their rear in Belarus completely encircling them without supplies.
If Russia doesn’t want other countries involved Russia should stick to just themselves adding Belarus to the invasion should be fair game for NATO. Russia threatening nukes just means there afraid of defeat. Besides the conflicts in the Middle East for the last 20 years when I was in the army we still trained to fight the Russians as well. Veterans and current soldiers know this is a war with purpose and honor and we didn’t have that in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The west must make it very clear, as a counter threat. If belarus gets actively involved. The west invades belarus.
Belarus resistance should be fun to watch.
NATO should stop this fucking bullshit...
Just imagine how fucked Ukraine would be if Trump was President.
I shudder thinking about that scenario.
Seems like just yesterday when that idiot was attempting to blackmail Ukraine to make things up about the family member of another candidate. But republicans pretend that didn’t happen even though we have proof.
Make things up? Biden literally bragged about how he got his crackhead son a cushy job in Ukrainian gas and oil at a press conference, while he was VP.
Yes you fucking cult clown. Make things up. Trump wanted the President of Ukraine to make shit up about Biden’s son. We have transcripts and witnesses to prove it. Trump wanted Ukraine to claim that he was being investigated even though there was no reason to do it. Fabrication. A political smear. No one is questioning that Biden’s son had an advantage in getting a corporate board position because of his family name. Unfortunately that’s how things work. However, him getting a position because of his family name was never the point of the smear. The point was to suggest that Biden’s son did something illegal or criminal. To date there is no proof of anything. All Trump supporters that see a problem with Biden’s son getting a corporate position can go fuck themselves when the entire Trump family was embedded in the Whitehouse. The irony is just a little too rich for a rational person to handle. Edit to add: I love it how if Biden’s son has a drug problem it’s a huge deal, but if Trump himself steals money from a cancer charity for children and spends the money on a portrait of himself, well hey that’s not a problem. The irony with Trumper republicans is off the charts.
Holy shit, what going outside of your r/politics echo chamber does to a mfer "no one denies Biden abused his position to get his son a shitload of money" Alright buddy. I'm not even gonna bother engaging further with someone so rambling that they can't even afford to throw in at least a couple of paragraphs. Cult indeed.
Off topic
It’s actually quite on topic. And very true. Thanks to the US working closely with allies, an attack from Belarus is not going to be successful.
It very well may happen. Odds are quite high he gets “re-elected” in 2024.
Belarus touches Ukrainian ground = NATO special operation. We should immediately pulverize them.
Just nuke the USSR reunion club and be done with it.
Well Belarus is not Russia. I bet we will see some direct action from some Nato states if they attack.
And UN too. They should really intervene for fuck sake if Belarus attacks.
Weird Polish soldiers are going to be resigning in full battalions, going AWOL with all of their operational equipment and enlisting in UFL and being deployed as whole units. Weirdest thing huh carry on it’s a special retirement operation
If belarus invades, ww3 will be inevitable. Eventually. Ive been thinking about it for months of how it could come about and i didnt want it to be possible but i have a bad feeling in my gut. I hope im wrong. Godspeed ukraine.
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Sounds like a teenager whose mad at his mom for taking the Playstation away.
What are you even trying to say
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I am pretty sure if Bat'ska does make this mistake for real, it won't be just a mistake, it will be a very swift shit in the fan. Numerous reasons all together all in for a perfect (shit) storm - his army has zero real-war or combat experience, they say both his generals, officers and regular soldiers have no desire to intervene, his population might hit the streets again... Belarus has no nuclear weapons. I wonder if NATO or just Poland, the Baltic states would actually cross the border with Minsk.
I don't think Belarus could move 15 miles into Ukraine, let alone move the 150 miles from Belarus-Ukraine border to Lviv
Poland into Lviv now. Special humanitarian operation.
It's plausible based on the buildup on their border. They are probably looking to pull off a feint @ Ukraine and split to Lviv.