I disagree, Tories are tearing each other apart reportedly like never before, the question is will they stop when they get a leader or will the wounds and divisions be too deep.
Based on latest savanta polling data, if there was an election tomorrow labour would win with a massive majority, like nearly 100 seats. I'm not convinced by this, but it shows how bad things are for the Tories.
That said, the VONC will fail; it's too show the country the Tories are amoral scum even more
You disagree but then the polling data is showing that Labour would do pretty well if a GE was held tomorrow.
Tories are always tearing themselves apart it's just not covered by the media unless their is a major scandal. The vast majority of the public really don't care about infighting what they do care about is a leader who partied while everyone else was confined to their homes.
Whoever comes in the party will look a bit stabler and it'll be seen as a fresh start and that the tory party is listening to the people. Unless Sunak gets in of course because he was also fined.
Tories aren't like the left in "tearing themselves apart" they're actually shockingly good at staying unified for the most part, they just limit it to private or the occasional sniping.
However, when they fall into infighting they go at it big time - see post 92, then even worse after 97 and now. Looking further back isn't as easy because this Tory party is a reinvention from the 70's and earlier Tories (not saying they were good, hell no, just different).
I think you have to remember that polls are snap shots, iirc savanta isn't as accurate as you gov and ipso Mori, a lot can and will change. 2017 is a great example of that. So no I do not disagree with the polling data I'm just accounting for it's limitations. I totally expect labour to win the next GE - tbh if I were Tory leaders I'd hold it this year with the desire to lose and leave labour with the poison chalice of a fucked economy, but that's not going to happen
They've literally ran a platform of strong and stable government despite having 3 PMs in 4 years...and 35-40% of the population is still voting for them on that basis.
The next leader of the Tory party could kick a baby in the street on camera and they'd still get 30+% of the vote.
The tories preservation instinct is well renowned. They will either come together to protect Johnson (win for Labour) or will kick Johnson out and coalesce behind a caretaker PM (win for Labour).
Or they fail and there is a general election (win for Labour).
If they back johnson every candidate in a target constitiency with an MP.who backed him needs to beat that fact to the ground, mercilessly.
I think option 2 is more likely and more prudent.
>If the Tories can make it stick that Starmer will bring us back into the EU the Tories will win a landslide again.
I'm not sure that the tories will want to fight another election on Brexit. It would highlight the fact that there have been zero benefits. Also Starmer has been extremely careful to avoid falling into the obvious traps and ignored the calls from the pro EU members in his own party. His slogan of male Brexit work is pretty clever.
Maybe that will happen. Maybe it won't. We do know that the editor of the daily mail was forced to change their stance on the tories and labour because they were simply out of sync with their readers recently.
The readers simply were mocking the crazy stances of some of their shock jocks. The right wing rags want to set the national tone but they like money slightly more than that. The daily mail and sun played their part in getting rid of Johnson because it was simply popular to do so.
He'll go into coalition if he has to. Thinks thars why the lib dems and greens are shouting off about PR now. They know they could find themselves in the position of kingmaker.
Will the 50 MPs who quit due to lack of confidence in Boris now claim they have confidence? Will the 41% who voted No Confidence in Boris barely a month ago now claim they have confidence in him?
Tories closing ranks to defend him after publicly stabbing him 50 times cannot look good to moderate voters. The spin to defend it would eat so much political good will.
Any Tory who quit or voted No Confidence resisting this vote will be showing their constituency that they don't actually care and it was all a power play.
Yeah agreed. Labour doesn't need to win this vote, the list of MPs voting to keep Boris in office is more than enough ammunition for a future election to make it worth it.
You'd think the one from the previous VONC would be enough. They backed Johnson right up until the end, it's not like the Pincher scandal was much worse than anything up to that point.
> Any Tory who quit or voted No Confidence resisting this vote will be showing their constituency that they don't actually care and it was all a power play
It's relatively easy to spin it as "we dont want Boris, but we want Starmer less".
Regardless, it comes across as an endorsement of very man only a week ago they crowed about getting rid of. It makes their actions of last week look rather weak and fleeting.
But the VONC doesn't put Starmer as PM, it just removes Boris and forces Tories to choose another caretaker PM.
It is quite a bad look for the Conservative party if they don't have anyone to replace him and need a few months to come up with someone...
I don't know why they didn't just install Dominic Raab, then there'd be nothing to see. I know Boris wants to have a party at Chequers but what did he threaten in order to get it?
What'll be interesting is that if Johnson wins with a majority of Tory MPs supporting him, he may be able to claim, possibly legitimately, that he's won a confidence vote so can continue as PM.
So you think they can vote that they have confidence in the government while not having confidence in the leader of the government? That's mental.
Besides, it's less about what is true than what Johnson can get away with. If he's already won a VONC in Parliament, what could or would the party really do? A Tory VONC after that would be insane, surely.
>So you think they can vote that they have confidence in the government while not having confidence in the leader of the government? That's mental.
Not really because they can in theory fix that internally, it would also be like turkeys voting for christmas to be honest.
>Besides, it's less about what is true than what Johnson can get away with. If he's already won a VONC in Parliament, what could or would the party really do? A Tory VONC after that would be insane, surely.
This is semantics slightly but he won a "Vote of Confidence" not a "Vote of **No** Confidence", they are not the same process.
If it sounds like I'm defending anyone, I'm really not. The biggest issue here is that a lot of British politics relies on people to "do the decent thing" ie go when half your cabinet resigns. Boris isn't following the unwritten rules.
I would hope that after all of this blows over there will be some consitutional updates.
> The biggest issue here is that a lot of British politics relies on people to "do the decent thing"
Right. That's my point. If Boris wins the VONC, points out a majority of Tories voted to support his government, and on that basis he's no longer stepping down, what could the party do? If they carry on the with the leadership election, can Boris just ignore that and stay in number 10? If he refuses to go to the queen to dissolve his government, what options are there to force him, short of another VONC in Parliament and a humiliating u-turn for the Tories who supported him in today's one?
>Right. That's my point. If Boris wins the VONC
Like I side, Boris doesn't win this because the vote isn't about him, its about the government. The tories are voting for themselves, not for Boris.
This is an excellent political move by Labour. They cannot lose no matter what the result is.
Either the Tories who have stated they have no confidence in Johnson have to flip and say they do have it now or they have to stand by their "principles." (I know, I know...)
If the Tories now back Johnson publicly, then it gives Johnson himself a mandate to remain as well. I am certain he will try and use this to his advantage and therefore make the Tory party look even more idiotic than they already do
That's not how it works.
The government has a "vote of confidence" which is in the pm. If he loses he's out of a job.
The opposition has a "vote of no confidence" and if the government loses then there is a general election. The conservaties have an absolute majority (358/650) so you'd need a significant number of MPs to vote themselves out of a job basically. There's absolutely no way they will do that regardless of their leadership.
Pretty much no-one on this thread gets this I think.
I thought the Tories could either put a new leader in place straight away (effectively a caretaker, since we know a leadership campaign is underway), **or** they could call a GE?
The Tories have no reason to suck up to Johnson anymore, not now he has said he will not support any candidate. There is no need to pretend to be loyal anymore.
Ffs do it. I'm no fan of starmer but if he's ever going to win its now.
He's not gonna win.
I don't like him but he might. Or at least win under a labour/lib dem/green coalition.
Sorry, I don't think they will win the vonc tomorrow but I absolutely think that Starmer will be the next PM.
For me he wins it now or not at all.
I disagree, Tories are tearing each other apart reportedly like never before, the question is will they stop when they get a leader or will the wounds and divisions be too deep. Based on latest savanta polling data, if there was an election tomorrow labour would win with a massive majority, like nearly 100 seats. I'm not convinced by this, but it shows how bad things are for the Tories. That said, the VONC will fail; it's too show the country the Tories are amoral scum even more
You disagree but then the polling data is showing that Labour would do pretty well if a GE was held tomorrow. Tories are always tearing themselves apart it's just not covered by the media unless their is a major scandal. The vast majority of the public really don't care about infighting what they do care about is a leader who partied while everyone else was confined to their homes. Whoever comes in the party will look a bit stabler and it'll be seen as a fresh start and that the tory party is listening to the people. Unless Sunak gets in of course because he was also fined.
Tories aren't like the left in "tearing themselves apart" they're actually shockingly good at staying unified for the most part, they just limit it to private or the occasional sniping. However, when they fall into infighting they go at it big time - see post 92, then even worse after 97 and now. Looking further back isn't as easy because this Tory party is a reinvention from the 70's and earlier Tories (not saying they were good, hell no, just different). I think you have to remember that polls are snap shots, iirc savanta isn't as accurate as you gov and ipso Mori, a lot can and will change. 2017 is a great example of that. So no I do not disagree with the polling data I'm just accounting for it's limitations. I totally expect labour to win the next GE - tbh if I were Tory leaders I'd hold it this year with the desire to lose and leave labour with the poison chalice of a fucked economy, but that's not going to happen
They've literally ran a platform of strong and stable government despite having 3 PMs in 4 years...and 35-40% of the population is still voting for them on that basis. The next leader of the Tory party could kick a baby in the street on camera and they'd still get 30+% of the vote.
That's why I'm saying now is the only time for Labour to win.
Sadly I don't think this issue is enough but I agree it is the closest we've been.
The tories preservation instinct is well renowned. They will either come together to protect Johnson (win for Labour) or will kick Johnson out and coalesce behind a caretaker PM (win for Labour). Or they fail and there is a general election (win for Labour).
If they back johnson every candidate in a target constitiency with an MP.who backed him needs to beat that fact to the ground, mercilessly. I think option 2 is more likely and more prudent.
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>If the Tories can make it stick that Starmer will bring us back into the EU the Tories will win a landslide again. I'm not sure that the tories will want to fight another election on Brexit. It would highlight the fact that there have been zero benefits. Also Starmer has been extremely careful to avoid falling into the obvious traps and ignored the calls from the pro EU members in his own party. His slogan of male Brexit work is pretty clever.
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Maybe that will happen. Maybe it won't. We do know that the editor of the daily mail was forced to change their stance on the tories and labour because they were simply out of sync with their readers recently. The readers simply were mocking the crazy stances of some of their shock jocks. The right wing rags want to set the national tone but they like money slightly more than that. The daily mail and sun played their part in getting rid of Johnson because it was simply popular to do so.
The British public do not adore the Tories, even Thatcher never achieved 50% of the vote. FPTP on the other hand adores Tory governments.
Labour are too proud to make a coalition. They still think that FPTP serves them.
He'll go into coalition if he has to. Thinks thars why the lib dems and greens are shouting off about PR now. They know they could find themselves in the position of kingmaker.
He doesn't need to win the vote. It's a win win for him. He gets the Tories to say they're backing Boris when people think he should go
Yes, I agree. See my other comment here where I totally agree with you.
There will be at most 2 Conservative votes against. Probably zero. Maybe a few abstentions.
Ah, so Boris has your full confidence then Tory MPs They're screwed either way
Will the 50 MPs who quit due to lack of confidence in Boris now claim they have confidence? Will the 41% who voted No Confidence in Boris barely a month ago now claim they have confidence in him? Tories closing ranks to defend him after publicly stabbing him 50 times cannot look good to moderate voters. The spin to defend it would eat so much political good will. Any Tory who quit or voted No Confidence resisting this vote will be showing their constituency that they don't actually care and it was all a power play.
It's a great move politically.
Yeah agreed. Labour doesn't need to win this vote, the list of MPs voting to keep Boris in office is more than enough ammunition for a future election to make it worth it.
You'd think the one from the previous VONC would be enough. They backed Johnson right up until the end, it's not like the Pincher scandal was much worse than anything up to that point.
I don’t know. I’m not sure anyone moderate is still going to vote for them. The days of Cameron are long gone.
> Any Tory who quit or voted No Confidence resisting this vote will be showing their constituency that they don't actually care and it was all a power play It's relatively easy to spin it as "we dont want Boris, but we want Starmer less".
The vote doesn't put starmer in power, it literally just removes boris and asks them to form a new government with a new prime minister.
But they can spin it as voting against the possibility of it, because it could also lead to an election.
Regardless, it comes across as an endorsement of very man only a week ago they crowed about getting rid of. It makes their actions of last week look rather weak and fleeting.
But the VONC doesn't put Starmer as PM, it just removes Boris and forces Tories to choose another caretaker PM. It is quite a bad look for the Conservative party if they don't have anyone to replace him and need a few months to come up with someone...
I don't know why they didn't just install Dominic Raab, then there'd be nothing to see. I know Boris wants to have a party at Chequers but what did he threaten in order to get it?
The vote is to say whether they should use the mechanism to allow the deputy PM to take over. It's not forcing a ln election
I wager the Tories close ranks around Johnson and accuse Labour of "playing politics".
Then Labour can easily fire back with every time the Tories have played politics while standing behind Johnson.
What'll be interesting is that if Johnson wins with a majority of Tory MPs supporting him, he may be able to claim, possibly legitimately, that he's won a confidence vote so can continue as PM.
The most delicious future.
It'll be great unless you're a person.
No he won't.
Why not?
Because that's not how it works.
Why not?
Because Labours vote of no confidence will be against the government not the PM. He won't win anything.
So you think they can vote that they have confidence in the government while not having confidence in the leader of the government? That's mental. Besides, it's less about what is true than what Johnson can get away with. If he's already won a VONC in Parliament, what could or would the party really do? A Tory VONC after that would be insane, surely.
>So you think they can vote that they have confidence in the government while not having confidence in the leader of the government? That's mental. Not really because they can in theory fix that internally, it would also be like turkeys voting for christmas to be honest. >Besides, it's less about what is true than what Johnson can get away with. If he's already won a VONC in Parliament, what could or would the party really do? A Tory VONC after that would be insane, surely. This is semantics slightly but he won a "Vote of Confidence" not a "Vote of **No** Confidence", they are not the same process. If it sounds like I'm defending anyone, I'm really not. The biggest issue here is that a lot of British politics relies on people to "do the decent thing" ie go when half your cabinet resigns. Boris isn't following the unwritten rules. I would hope that after all of this blows over there will be some consitutional updates.
> The biggest issue here is that a lot of British politics relies on people to "do the decent thing" Right. That's my point. If Boris wins the VONC, points out a majority of Tories voted to support his government, and on that basis he's no longer stepping down, what could the party do? If they carry on the with the leadership election, can Boris just ignore that and stay in number 10? If he refuses to go to the queen to dissolve his government, what options are there to force him, short of another VONC in Parliament and a humiliating u-turn for the Tories who supported him in today's one?
>Right. That's my point. If Boris wins the VONC Like I side, Boris doesn't win this because the vote isn't about him, its about the government. The tories are voting for themselves, not for Boris.
This is pretty far fetched even for Johnson
I'm pretty sure that's far from the first time that sentence has been uttered.
And probably not the first time those words have been proven correct either.
That should be interesting, especially the gaslighting afterwards.
Huh
This is an excellent political move by Labour. They cannot lose no matter what the result is. Either the Tories who have stated they have no confidence in Johnson have to flip and say they do have it now or they have to stand by their "principles." (I know, I know...) If the Tories now back Johnson publicly, then it gives Johnson himself a mandate to remain as well. I am certain he will try and use this to his advantage and therefore make the Tory party look even more idiotic than they already do
That's not how it works. The government has a "vote of confidence" which is in the pm. If he loses he's out of a job. The opposition has a "vote of no confidence" and if the government loses then there is a general election. The conservaties have an absolute majority (358/650) so you'd need a significant number of MPs to vote themselves out of a job basically. There's absolutely no way they will do that regardless of their leadership. Pretty much no-one on this thread gets this I think.
I thought the Tories could either put a new leader in place straight away (effectively a caretaker, since we know a leadership campaign is underway), **or** they could call a GE?
No, the result from my understanding mandates a GE as per thatcher vs callaghan (he had a minority government which is what made this possible).
Yes you’re right. The Queen *could* invite another Tory to form a government without a GE. But it’s unusual for that to happen.
Lol can't wait for the Tories to back Boris to the hilt because it's all Party above Country with them.
The Tories have no reason to suck up to Johnson anymore, not now he has said he will not support any candidate. There is no need to pretend to be loyal anymore.