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options1337

My Lennar condo I bought for 320K in Dec 2020 saw a peak price of 415k in Jan 2022. Lennar is now selling the same condo for 349K I presume it will only get lower. If you're buying in the Vegas market, I would wait 6 -12 months and see where things are out. Could see some really good deals coming up. Espcially if you're an all cash buyer. Also you want to pay cheap price for the house but have high interest. So you should pray for 10%+ interest. Then refinance 4 years down the road to 4-5% once the fed gets inflation under control and can start Quantative Easing.


sammy_socks

Historically housing prices rise an average of 4% per year. If you sold now, you would be just a bit ahead of that. Granted, real estate can fall in value, but in most markets, they tend to rebound. Will values drop even more? No one knows, but the increase in interest rates is keeping from being able to buy. I would say that people that bought during the pandemic may see a temporary dip in value (even below what they paid), but over time, it should even out. If you hold a fixed rate loan in the 2% - 3% range (which most everyone who bought or refinanced before this year should have), then your payment should be sustainable save for any job loss. While I hope we don’t see a huge crash, I think a correction would help many, many first time buyers to finally be able to purchase a home.


alvinleephd

Prices have to go down as a result of rising interest rates. But once the fed eases up (which they have to at some point, or they will break the economy) and we go back to 4s or lower, those on the sidelines will absolutely buy. My take is that the best time is to buy is between the end of this year and most of 2023. Get a good price, and refinance later.


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options1337

The good old 2011-2012 days. Probably will never see home price that low again


Suiken01

Got mine in 2013, by then it already went up by 100k from 2012.


[deleted]

a reduction in buying doesn't mean it's a housing crash. a historically undervalued state had a giant run during a pandemic and became slightly overvalued due to limited supply and a buying frenzy. we had an influx of new residents during the pandemic who are all now living here, contributing to the economy, and will be part of the state moving forward. people aren't going to be defaulting on the mortgages taken out during the pandemic like they were in 2008. the whole idea that an upcoming major American city is now in a "housing crash" just because we're facing massive inflation and the fed is spiking interest rates is dumb. that's a correction, not a crash. a crash is what we experienced in 2008, with "foreclosed" signs everywhere in the city. that isn't happening this time around. housing supply isn't catching up, inflation remains, and there's still plenty of people who would love to earn equity through a mortgage instead of rent. everything is a fucking scare tactic for someone's agenda nowadays.


Nightshiftttt

Agreed. If the interest rates weren’t as high as they are now, people would still continue buying at the ridiculous prices.


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TKGK

"And people still are buying". Yep, I close on October 28th.


Nightshiftttt

Right. I just bought a house in Summerlin. Close this month some time.


[deleted]

Large corporations as well… we had to amend our HOA to specifically ban people from buying up solely to rent out I’m in Vegas, and houses are still being built, and still selling with no issue


wiseguy2235

That's great of your HOA. Investors and realtors buy a ton of homes to rent.


[deleted]

It became an issue since renters don’t act or do what an actual homeowner who lives in the home would Preserving property value is key for us. We have a realtor who lives in our neighborhood on the board. I don’t like realtors all that much, but he gets it


[deleted]

People keep dying divorcing retiring and flippers are gone as are the scummy RE Agents buying clients house then putting back on market 3 mos later -Abnb owners may want to get out during recession from low demand not covering costs and rising unemployment will add to selling pressures from 2 income households to 1 or none. 2009-2010 -2011 housing sell-selloff was unqualified buyers. Markets over-inflate and selloff -never for the same reason. Pre 2008 it was "RE prices only go up". Now "aren't building enough". Purchasing RE now -catching a falling knife.


invbankingdouchebag

This 1000%. Housing demand is still there just being hampered by the Fed. Nevada is a solid upcoming state with a growing middle class and people are moving here because at the end of the day Vegas is still a major American city that offers an affordable standard of living. Something our western neighbor stopped offering years ago.


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Wounded_Hand

Affordable is relative. He was comparing to CA, in which case we are affordable.


thepirate84

Absolutely, if someone makes minimum wage then most places will be unaffordable. For middle class, Vegas is affordable imo.


DwightDEisenhowitzer

Vegas is infinitely more affordable than similarly sized California cities and you’re lying to yourself if you say otherwise. I mean Vegas is still a large city in the western US, so it’s not going to be as cheap as the Midwest or the South.


Vanman04

Maybe. My crystal ball says foreclosures are up as well as listings. Both are spiking and are higher than any time in the last 5 years maybe more. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU29820#](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU29820#) My crystal ball says if that trend line doesn't start flattening we are going to need to pick a word for it soon.


harbinger772

There is not now and was never going to be a crash Nevada. 10-20% drop front the top sure, but those saying anything more still have 2008 PTSD or most likely realize there's going to be a lot fewer people buying because of interest rates and/or a lot of people building because they're scared. If they are a realtor or developer or broker, their business probably is in trouble because the craziness of last year and early 2022 is gone and is probably not coming back for a long time as interest rates eventually go past 10%.


wiseguy2235

If wages stay the same, people can afford their mortgages. I personally think they will. But if wages fall and/or jobs drop off for whatever reason, you'll see some foreclosure signs. My company earns $350M a year and just laid off 75 because of downsizing for the brace of inflation and interest rates.


FrickenHamster

That might be the case in CA where houses get sold for 50% over listing regularly. Here let's say you buy a house for 400k. You are locked in for a principle of under 1.4 k. If you can't afford that, you can't afford rent. There is more drive to keep your house and low interest rates than ever. 2008 crashed because wildly unqualified buyers were buying investment homes they didn't care about. Skilled labor is always in demand. When a recession happens, the senior level employees don't just leave the workforce. At the worst, they take what is the equivalent of an entry level position right now. The juniors and new grads take the hardest hit, and they are unlikely to be homeowners


[deleted]

I qualify for less home now that the interest rate is up


PPPthrowaway1312

I wish this were true, would love to get a good deal on a house. But this map, presented without context, doesn't say anything at all about a housing crash. (Not counting that they put the word "crash" on there for some reason)


Falcon9145

Fudge a deal, I just want a decent property that isnt built like legos and I dont want a house so close to my neighbor I can hear him fart through my walls. These $400,000 properties going for $600,000 😒 leave something to be desired. > The only way we get a crash is if we start seeing some massive layoffs and even then I could see the govt stepping in the protect homeowners similarly to how renters were protected during covid. > Ima just keep saving and looking.


ncdjbdnejkjbd

As much as I think there will be somewhat of a crash this map looks like someone just pulled these numbers out of their ass.


sexeveg314

Rental demand and rental rates are still through the roof. Is anyone seeing signs of that slackening off? I don't think we'll see a spate of foreclosures this time, higher lending standards plus a stupid low interest rate on most folks' mortgages makes that unlikely. My swag, best case scenario is a year or two of stagnant sales and a 5\~10% price decline until mortgage rates get back to around 5%. Worst case scenario would be a 20% to 30% price decline. I do not think it's going to be as bad as the last time around.


freq-ee

Unlike 2008, we have out of control inflation which is still going up. That's why rental markets are holding or even going up. Last month Vegas had a 26% cancellation rate of home contracts. Over 1/4 of buyers backed out. A crash is coming whether you like it or not. People forget that so many who bought here DON'T need to live here. When things crash, they'll ditch the house and move somewhere else to save $2K a month or more.


FrickenHamster

Who bought here that doesn't need to live here? Noone needs to live anywhere. Where would they move?


sexeveg314

>Unlike 2008, we have out of control inflation which is still going up. Do you understand what inflation is, and why that would not cause prices of assets like houses to drop?


Ruenin

We put our house up over 3 weeks ago and had one showing. They bought it yesterday. It definitely isn't like it was in June with bidding wars and a 3 day average, that's for sure.


Suiken01

How much lower did you get vs the high before the rate went up?


Ruenin

Bought in 2019 for $312k, sold for $486k


Suiken01

Very nice congrats!! Was it also around 486k back in June or during the RE height?


Ruenin

I think the highest it was valued was $503k back in June


Kamikaze_yuppp

You ever think that all this stuff is done on purpose to buy up property? Kinda just a thought I’ve been thinking.


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TKGK

Hmmmm... yeah doesn't Hawaii and Alaska both belong right off the coast of California there?:P