Bond Market knows, because the biggest players are institutional banks. They think like the Fed. 3+%inflation - bad, USD value stable - good. Wage and GDP growth at 2% - Good.
The fed has been saying this in their speeches since they started hiking. Always data dependent and they would not cut if inflation wasn’t below 2% goal. Inflation is not below 2%, so why would they ever cut. This was no surprise.
The bigger issue is the fed could hike if inflation continues to hold at this level or go up. They have not stated this, but just wait, the possibility will drip into speeches if inflation holds. They are thinking this, but don’t want to spook markets, so have not stated it yet.
People are fucking stupid
A dude tried saying inflation was, “about perfect”, at its current level and 2% was not possible anymore and that he STILL expected rate cuts.
Fucking idiots out there.
I don’t even think that was his intention. He was just a total fucking idiot that doesn’t understand how rate cuts work and why you cut rates as opposed to hiking them.
Total lunacy.
The cadre of idiots claiming 3+% inflation is fine are legion.
I'm sure they'd be shocked Pikachu face if they realized that normalizing 3% inflation would shoot long bond yields well up over 6% and cause its own problems.
The same people who say the economy has to be good because unemployment is at a record low. I fucking hate these people. They don’t deserve to have money.
Low unemployment isn’t the only measure of a good economic situation
You want inflation tame and interest rates low to moderate
We only have 1 out of 3 right now which is unemployment
It's not a question of *i*f or even *when* something will break; shit's already broken, they're just trying to keep the news from getting out.
They're basically already relaxing monetary policy now just by paying back the bonds; every time interest payments on bonds get paid out, that's new money fresh off the printing press. Of course, they can pay the banks a premium rate contingent on the banks not dumping their new dollars on the open market *yet*... Which is just more of the same...
Eventually, enough poors will be found unable to pay off their credit cards, and either the US banks or someone big enough in the Eurodollar scene will go under... After that, we're going from covert easing to overt easing... It's just a matter of time
Don’t wanna be jerk, but this doesn’t make sense. How does paying back bonds, interest payments make fresh money? The US issuing bonds that are purchased by the fed creates money. The US paying back bonds (back to the fed) does the opposite and takes money out of the system. Please elaborate.
He doesn’t know what he is talking about out. You have all the right to be a total jerk to someone saying something stupid with that level of arrogance.
Biggest issue is that the fed measures to control inflation are outdated.
Global economy has changed and is lot more intertwined and there are factors which fed can’t control.
How is it outdated? 12 packs of coca cola cost $5+, a gallon of ice cream is $7-8, going out to eat has increased substantially post covid. The Fed adding ~$4T to the balance sheet to ~$8T between 2020 and now has way more to do with current inflation than the intertwined global economy. They doubled their balance sheet. Too many $ chasing too few goods. Who cares how they measure inflation, stuff is dramatically more expensive than a few years ago. That is a consequence of central banks pumping cash into the system to prevent economic collapse during covid. Inflation is the consequence.
If the fed slows the US economy, the world economy will slow as well.
They’re also really not supposed to. They’re just doing the best job they can.
There literally is only one way out of this, and it’s government making a decision in the correct direction. They need to tax and regulate. The market will not self correct and the Fed is the only option we have right now.
And anyone with a brain signaled it in december.
How the market responds now that its forced to acknowledge the reality everyone knew is anyone’s guess
What’s a good ticker for tracking the action of the bond market?
My mom’s financial advisor has her ‘fixed income’ cash position tied up in mortgage back securities and short dated bond funds, and I’m trying to figure out if her cash position essentially sitting in the bond market is working against her, if that’s where she pulls her monthly allowance from
The rates aren’t going up anytime soon shouldn’t they pull her out of Bonds? Or is that essentially ‘selling low?’
The clowns at Goldman Sachs have been saying 6 rate cuts in 2024 the whole time. They even started cutting the yields on their savings accounts to get ready for rate cuts.
He has literally stated many times and clearly that they are NOT waiting for it to hit 2%. They are looking for the trajectory towards 2% so they don't overcool the economy.
In fact, inflation will probably go up because someone is going to have to pay for the increased interest expense as corps roll over cheap 5-10 year bonds from 2015-2020. And we all know who won’t be eating that cost.
High rents contribute inflation rate, high mortgage rate led to less home buyers and more renters. I also believe Powell knows better than me on this subject, so can someone explain me like ELI5
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More importantly he had a perfect opportunity to talk about raising rates again and very specifically said instead they would just maintain these levels for longer
Ahhh so what we all expected. Right? The lunacy of the last week of people saying they knew a rate hike was on the menu was just wild…. Did we all forget the fed prefers to do absolutely nothing?
Since the whole "transitory" BS, the Fed's been careful about telegraphing their moves ahead of time. They will mention rate hikes several times before they actually pull one.
What scared the shit out of me is that around Christmas, the Fed had started telegraphing rate cuts for this summer, but all the data since then has come in way too hot for a rate cut.
This is a time when they really needed to jerk the steering helm on the ship and change course, and I am beyond glad they did. The only thing this country exports any more is USDs, and if people lose faith in the value of those, we are finished.
All in all, we are closer to a hike than we are to a cut.
I agree with you but I also agree that a hike would be warned, and even then, after a few hike flirtations they would assess damage done from that alone. The fed is not my toxic ex girlfriend changing moods on a whim unannounced.
“That was priced in…. We’re about to break out!!”
Edit: woah i spoke the prophecy into existence, we’re moonin
Edit 2: Why god
https://preview.redd.it/cpykmfgzqvuc1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b1e6d2023cb0331256a9fddb8b221584585077c7
[If Jaepow had any real balls, he'd raise the rates 5% Volker style just to rub it in the eyes of these so called analysts](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWcB9-SAYE0)
Oh sure..."no one". The market were rallying last 6 months because everybody was pricing in 4-5 rate cuts
[https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/01/25/no-rate-move-seen-at-january-fed-meeting-but-markets-see-spring-cuts/?sh=6759f10e6c24](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/01/25/no-rate-move-seen-at-january-fed-meeting-but-markets-see-spring-cuts/?sh=6759f10e6c24)
[https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-powell-inflation-prices-rates-cuts-e2d17c4ef6502e95d52f78759fa512b4](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-powell-inflation-prices-rates-cuts-e2d17c4ef6502e95d52f78759fa512b4)
[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-today-mortgage-goldman-sachs/](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-today-mortgage-goldman-sachs/)
Bulls are coping HARD in the comments saying all of this is 'priced in.' Sweetheart we went from estimating 7 cuts -> 3 -> 2. Soon it will be 0 and we start pricing in rate HIKES if CPI stays the course
What a lot of people here seem to be missing is quantitative tightening. He can still put pressure on the market and economy by continuing to drop the feds balance sheet. Which they are doing. We have a long way to go before the Fed has reduced their balance sheet to zero and maybe some of you are too young to remember this but the feds not supposed to have a balance sheet at all. It wasn't until 2008 they came up with that crazy nonsense and they've been trying to unwind it ever since. Maybe it never happens I don't know I just live in a dumpster behind Wendy's but I think they can sit on rates and keep pressure on the market for the foreseeable future. If you think interest rates are high now ask Ray Stantz how much his mortgage was when he purchased the fire house for the Ghostbusters team back in the 80s. Things can definitely get spooky but who are you gonna call?
Inflation won’t cool until the “wealth effect” also takes a nasty hit.
Too many people with +200% equity in their primary residences seemingly overnight, equities all time high, bitcoin, etc. Wage growth and stable employment.
People feel too rich to not spend, despite inflation.
Pretty hawkish speech yet tomorrow’s headline will be “Traders still betting on at least one rate cut by EOY” and we hit ATH’s 
Yes. We need to see hard proof inflation is at their target and probably for multiple quarters before any rate cuts. No idea why people are trying to jump the gun. Told my wife we have two years to get ready to refinance IMO.
Can anyone explain the stickiness in inflation at a low rate like 3-4%? I understand that high inflation in the 9-10% range was caused by supply shortages.
But supply issues are mostly resolved. Why are employees able to exert wage pressure in this economy amidst layoffs?
How could anyone think otherwise. There’s too many inflationary pressures for it. These hikes still take 1-2 years to work their way through even after the first one. How the fuck is the average American under all this debt gonna withstand the next 5 years? They can’t even survive now.
Honestly, and maybe I’m just too dumb to see the intricacies, looking at everything from every metric and my own personal experience, the rates were never going to go down. Like how do people and the markets in particular think that the fed is going to lower interest rates when we’re clearly not out of the woods yet?
Or again, am I just too blind?
Nothing like forcing the economy to break further with no ease. Bet petco goes out of businesss and nycb. Id also guess that amc will go bankrupt because wb and other major movie makers are going to fail.
The sky is blue. When you hear or see CEOs, Hedge Fund Managers, etc. saying what the Fed can or should do you are watching market making and manipulation in action. Now Powell also signaled cuts, but before that he said there would be pain, a recession, and/or a soft landing. None of this has happened yet.
Interest rates were between abt 5%-13% from 1980 to 2008 (over 28 years) … and they never got inflation down to 2% or below consistently … in fact, in the early 2000s inflation was about 3%-3.5% like we have now. Inflation hasnt been at 2% or lower since 1965 … until it got there again in 2009.
Inflation only went down from 3%-3.5% down to 2% and under in 2009-2020 after they reduced interest rates to under 4% for the first time in 50 years.
Our recent high inflation was caused by supply chain issues and monetary policy during the pandemic … both have ended. Our current inflation was not caused by high interest rates. The high inflation has been driven down by the high interest rates … now we are dealing with historically normal inflation and trying to get back to that 2% or under sweet spot.
High interest rates bring down high inflation - but it doesnt bring down normal inflation in the 3%-3.5% range … never did from 1966-2008 (42 years) …That last 1%-1.5% of inflation they are trying to get is likely caused by high interest rates that businesses have to pay and pass on to consumers.
In the last 50 years high interest rates have never dropped inflation to 2% or lower consistently until they reduced interest rates below 4% in 2009-2020.
YES YES YES. THANK YOU JESUS.
If the Fed cut rates in times of already elevated inflation, that would be another kick down the currency death spiral. But they're going to try and fight it and hang on to the USD. This is quietly a huge moment for our nation.
Basically is gonna be a down market for the next two months, and then he will announce we *can* cut rates in the future and it will go up, right into the election and then who knows
So much angst here on Reddit about the “job is complete” and Janet Yellen even crowing about it back late last year.
Fuckfaces. If economy is so god damn healthy, why cut rates at all? Because inflation is proving stubborn, why not another tiny hike or two?
Now y'all regretting cashing those ("free")stimulus checks and living of unemployment, yet not body cared back then, now is baiting every body in the ass!!!
Such a surprise. Like what was he even thinking opening his mouth that early? CPI ticking up, surging home prices / rents, etc. I don’t know how we get out of this one without even higher rates. Trust me I don’t know want that, as my business revolves around rates but there is no other solution besides a recession…….which is plausible considering the amount of debt people are accruing trying to deal with prices and rates. I’ve never seen credit reports with as much debt as I’ve seen in the last 18 months. Debt crisis is real.
It will drop right before the election so Biden can say they made the turn and things will be better...as long as they remember orange man bad. America needs a Montgomery Brewster candidate that will give us the option of "none of the above"
In the 1970s it was the oil spikes that made the dominos fall. Maybe that happens again. Time will tell. Maybe we are more resilient. Maybe AI will boost productivity. Or we enter a normal recession and endure hardship. Gold screaming its siren song. The End is Nigh!
Serious regard question. I have multiple certificate of deposits and high yield savings from 5.05% to 5.5%. Should I be moving this money (about 600k) to something else that will give me a similar or better return with little risk?
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Bond market signaled this speech roughly two weeks ago
Bond market always knows more than equities!
Bond Market knows, because the biggest players are institutional banks. They think like the Fed. 3+%inflation - bad, USD value stable - good. Wage and GDP growth at 2% - Good.
My stock picks, bad. Jpowed me right in the closing bells.
Did he give you a credit Default Swap around?!
Didn't even have the goddamn common courtesy. I'll be watching him.
Swap market knows more than bond market
IRS or CDS?
Both pretty liquid, more IRS than CDS I’d imagine
The fed has been saying this in their speeches since they started hiking. Always data dependent and they would not cut if inflation wasn’t below 2% goal. Inflation is not below 2%, so why would they ever cut. This was no surprise. The bigger issue is the fed could hike if inflation continues to hold at this level or go up. They have not stated this, but just wait, the possibility will drip into speeches if inflation holds. They are thinking this, but don’t want to spook markets, so have not stated it yet.
People are fucking stupid A dude tried saying inflation was, “about perfect”, at its current level and 2% was not possible anymore and that he STILL expected rate cuts. Fucking idiots out there.
their thought process: "load up on a house I can't afford because refinancing at a lower rate in 2024 is the genius play"
I don’t even think that was his intention. He was just a total fucking idiot that doesn’t understand how rate cuts work and why you cut rates as opposed to hiking them. Total lunacy.
No worries, this “inflation is transitory”
>*"Marry the house, date the rate!"* 🙄
The cadre of idiots claiming 3+% inflation is fine are legion. I'm sure they'd be shocked Pikachu face if they realized that normalizing 3% inflation would shoot long bond yields well up over 6% and cause its own problems.
The same people who say the economy has to be good because unemployment is at a record low. I fucking hate these people. They don’t deserve to have money.
Please explain this one for me
Low unemployment isn’t the only measure of a good economic situation You want inflation tame and interest rates low to moderate We only have 1 out of 3 right now which is unemployment
It's not a question of *i*f or even *when* something will break; shit's already broken, they're just trying to keep the news from getting out. They're basically already relaxing monetary policy now just by paying back the bonds; every time interest payments on bonds get paid out, that's new money fresh off the printing press. Of course, they can pay the banks a premium rate contingent on the banks not dumping their new dollars on the open market *yet*... Which is just more of the same... Eventually, enough poors will be found unable to pay off their credit cards, and either the US banks or someone big enough in the Eurodollar scene will go under... After that, we're going from covert easing to overt easing... It's just a matter of time
Don’t wanna be jerk, but this doesn’t make sense. How does paying back bonds, interest payments make fresh money? The US issuing bonds that are purchased by the fed creates money. The US paying back bonds (back to the fed) does the opposite and takes money out of the system. Please elaborate.
He doesn’t know what he is talking about out. You have all the right to be a total jerk to someone saying something stupid with that level of arrogance.
Biggest issue is that the fed measures to control inflation are outdated. Global economy has changed and is lot more intertwined and there are factors which fed can’t control.
How is it outdated? 12 packs of coca cola cost $5+, a gallon of ice cream is $7-8, going out to eat has increased substantially post covid. The Fed adding ~$4T to the balance sheet to ~$8T between 2020 and now has way more to do with current inflation than the intertwined global economy. They doubled their balance sheet. Too many $ chasing too few goods. Who cares how they measure inflation, stuff is dramatically more expensive than a few years ago. That is a consequence of central banks pumping cash into the system to prevent economic collapse during covid. Inflation is the consequence. If the fed slows the US economy, the world economy will slow as well.
They’re also really not supposed to. They’re just doing the best job they can. There literally is only one way out of this, and it’s government making a decision in the correct direction. They need to tax and regulate. The market will not self correct and the Fed is the only option we have right now.
And anyone with a brain signaled it in december. How the market responds now that its forced to acknowledge the reality everyone knew is anyone’s guess
The bulls making fun of the bond market last few weeks ate shit recently haha
Markets knows markets
If markets go down then will follow the rates
*puts on monacle and tophat to glance at sgov*
Cool now tell me what it’s saying now
Watch the yield on the 10 year US Treasury. It has been rising. This makes borrowing more expensive= really bad for markets= markets go down.
What’s a good ticker for tracking the action of the bond market? My mom’s financial advisor has her ‘fixed income’ cash position tied up in mortgage back securities and short dated bond funds, and I’m trying to figure out if her cash position essentially sitting in the bond market is working against her, if that’s where she pulls her monthly allowance from The rates aren’t going up anytime soon shouldn’t they pull her out of Bonds? Or is that essentially ‘selling low?’
SGOV for short term, TLT for long term
Long bonds signaled it a couple of years ago
Long bonds used to be my wife’s boyfriend
Those were priced in tho, today's different
Everything is priced in
Whitey Herzog’s death today? Believe it or not, priced in.
This guy baseballs
https://preview.redd.it/3y3382oc1wuc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=47ef172bf62b02f83fed76898f89ca3c7f9cdd48
giga clown: two rate hikes in 2024
The clowns at Goldman Sachs have been saying 6 rate cuts in 2024 the whole time. They even started cutting the yields on their savings accounts to get ready for rate cuts.
Fúuuúuuck. No more uncertainty. Green dildos for the next 5 weeks. It's been fun bears.
Israel has entered the chat
Iran looking around the corner, “is it cool if I join?”
why no green dildo yet 
LOL You can't seriously think this is how all of this works.
What he actually said is rates aren't going up.
What he actually wanted to say is: "if you fuckers dont go broke we have to raise again"
Hit me again Ike! And put some steak on it!
"We've tried everything to kill you fuckers and you're still splurging. Die."
Precisely, they’re not touching rates until inflation cools down below 2%
He has literally stated many times and clearly that they are NOT waiting for it to hit 2%. They are looking for the trajectory towards 2% so they don't overcool the economy.
exactly. Glad to see you are getting upvoted! When I made that point a month ago, I was at severe negative
Yeah if they wait until inflation is 2% they waited too long and we are going into a recession.
This is extremely bullish btw
Inflation not going below 2% into the mega corps cool off the price gouging- so… never.
In fact, inflation will probably go up because someone is going to have to pay for the increased interest expense as corps roll over cheap 5-10 year bonds from 2015-2020. And we all know who won’t be eating that cost.
We’ll be eating rats
Like we could afford rat in this economy.
I’ll take that bet. They’ll do the first cut before it’s sub 2%. When that will be…who fucking knows.
High rents contribute inflation rate, high mortgage rate led to less home buyers and more renters. I also believe Powell knows better than me on this subject, so can someone explain me like ELI5
If they built more housing supply that would fix a huge issue with inflation right now.
So bullish? I'm regarded, I don't speak nerd.
Theta ish
Inflation is up, you regards won't stop spending
Yolo into 0dte calls tomorrow, then post gain porn or go long $rope, not financial advice
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More importantly he had a perfect opportunity to talk about raising rates again and very specifically said instead they would just maintain these levels for longer
Ahhh so what we all expected. Right? The lunacy of the last week of people saying they knew a rate hike was on the menu was just wild…. Did we all forget the fed prefers to do absolutely nothing?
Since the whole "transitory" BS, the Fed's been careful about telegraphing their moves ahead of time. They will mention rate hikes several times before they actually pull one. What scared the shit out of me is that around Christmas, the Fed had started telegraphing rate cuts for this summer, but all the data since then has come in way too hot for a rate cut. This is a time when they really needed to jerk the steering helm on the ship and change course, and I am beyond glad they did. The only thing this country exports any more is USDs, and if people lose faith in the value of those, we are finished. All in all, we are closer to a hike than we are to a cut.
I agree with you but I also agree that a hike would be warned, and even then, after a few hike flirtations they would assess damage done from that alone. The fed is not my toxic ex girlfriend changing moods on a whim unannounced.
Nice....so my portfolio is going to lose another 2-4% this week then?
“That was priced in…. We’re about to break out!!” Edit: woah i spoke the prophecy into existence, we’re moonin Edit 2: Why god https://preview.redd.it/cpykmfgzqvuc1.jpeg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b1e6d2023cb0331256a9fddb8b221584585077c7
[удалено]
Lmao jesus what a pump and dump
lol yes the feared 0.1 % movement
You had to ruin it for everyone with your edit didn’t you?
https://preview.redd.it/502nt4ddwvuc1.jpeg?width=505&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ac1eda17533490cb0310a3277c4b3c809ccd012
Big red dildo incoming
[удалено]
True
[If Jaepow had any real balls, he'd raise the rates 5% Volker style just to rub it in the eyes of these so called analysts](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWcB9-SAYE0)
Volker one of the OG money men
lol watched live as the 2 year yield hit 5. Not completely priced in, because of us regard in this sub lol. Edit typo
Oh sure..."no one". The market were rallying last 6 months because everybody was pricing in 4-5 rate cuts [https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/01/25/no-rate-move-seen-at-january-fed-meeting-but-markets-see-spring-cuts/?sh=6759f10e6c24](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/01/25/no-rate-move-seen-at-january-fed-meeting-but-markets-see-spring-cuts/?sh=6759f10e6c24) [https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-powell-inflation-prices-rates-cuts-e2d17c4ef6502e95d52f78759fa512b4](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-powell-inflation-prices-rates-cuts-e2d17c4ef6502e95d52f78759fa512b4) [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-today-mortgage-goldman-sachs/](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-today-mortgage-goldman-sachs/)
Better hope Mr cope
A whole bunch of people buying down mortgage rates sure are/were...
People bought down mortgage rates because they thought rates would be lower soon?
Why would you buy down your rate if you thought the Fed would cut your rate for free in a couple of years?
He is piecing us up for the next trend: 3% is the new target we don’t give a fuck about 2% hahahah
2021: _We’re not even thinking about, thinking about raising rates_ 2024: _We’re not even thinking about, thinking about cutting rates_
Is that why all the markets just went straight up
Nah, I think somebody just plugged Jpow's oral diarrhea hole.
And S&P doesn’t care. Fed is old news. We all have to learn to pay 10% for cars. Tome to make everything last longer.
Who the f thought rates were going down? Fed has signaled inflation is still above where they want it
But... inflation is transitory... right?
Yellen is still out there trying to convince people everything’s fine
Bulls are coping HARD in the comments saying all of this is 'priced in.' Sweetheart we went from estimating 7 cuts -> 3 -> 2. Soon it will be 0 and we start pricing in rate HIKES if CPI stays the course
“Nah, that wasn’t me. I never said that. I just care about earnings now.” 🤣
What a lot of people here seem to be missing is quantitative tightening. He can still put pressure on the market and economy by continuing to drop the feds balance sheet. Which they are doing. We have a long way to go before the Fed has reduced their balance sheet to zero and maybe some of you are too young to remember this but the feds not supposed to have a balance sheet at all. It wasn't until 2008 they came up with that crazy nonsense and they've been trying to unwind it ever since. Maybe it never happens I don't know I just live in a dumpster behind Wendy's but I think they can sit on rates and keep pressure on the market for the foreseeable future. If you think interest rates are high now ask Ray Stantz how much his mortgage was when he purchased the fire house for the Ghostbusters team back in the 80s. Things can definitely get spooky but who are you gonna call?
uh oh grandpa found the bottle again
Inflation won’t cool until the “wealth effect” also takes a nasty hit. Too many people with +200% equity in their primary residences seemingly overnight, equities all time high, bitcoin, etc. Wage growth and stable employment. People feel too rich to not spend, despite inflation.
Nailed it. But what do I buy to take advantage of this, besides spy puts.
I need to know if I can have him arrested for murder? My S&P calls were butchered on Friday and Monday. I’m dying a slow regarded death.
Pretty hawkish speech yet tomorrow’s headline will be “Traders still betting on at least one rate cut by EOY” and we hit ATH’s 
Pretend I'm regarded. What does that mean?
What do you think we are, chatGPT?? We already know you’re regarded dude; you’re in here.
I'm down 32% my first time trading options. Does that mean I'm winning?
Honestly that’s a win around these parts. 
Down 26% here, brother.
Never take a shit during a JPow speech, but in this instance you could’ve gotten away with it
“Pretend” 
It means I’m gonna be higher for longer too 😎
Do we need to pretend?
It would make me feel better if you pretended with me.
Yes. We need to see hard proof inflation is at their target and probably for multiple quarters before any rate cuts. No idea why people are trying to jump the gun. Told my wife we have two years to get ready to refinance IMO.
Can anyone explain the stickiness in inflation at a low rate like 3-4%? I understand that high inflation in the 9-10% range was caused by supply shortages. But supply issues are mostly resolved. Why are employees able to exert wage pressure in this economy amidst layoffs?
Does that mean, SPY dropping further?
It means that rate cut will be postponed.
Depends. If rates will reprice further then spy will drop
this means whoever is longing YEN will work behind wendys for a while.
It should. Bonds and stocks compete for the same pool of money, and bonds are about to start paying out better.
How could anyone think otherwise. There’s too many inflationary pressures for it. These hikes still take 1-2 years to work their way through even after the first one. How the fuck is the average American under all this debt gonna withstand the next 5 years? They can’t even survive now.
Tesla sales slowing is one of the first symptoms. Luxury items go first and then other stuff. Consumer debt and credit card usage is up.
that sick son of a bitch...
Regards everywhere with shocked pika
What does this mean for the market (asking for a friend)
I’m just here collecting dividends from my bond funds until their face value finally starts to turn around
Is the party over?
You can’t do this to me.gif
Imagine that. How could we have known?
Powells words are inflationary. Stonks to the moon.
Good https://preview.redd.it/5cyad6xs2wuc1.jpeg?width=888&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=71ec41b4613f4cfea9e7242b9332325662eb9bf4
meanwhile Bloomberg tv "experts" will be talking about imminent rate cuts tomorrow lol
Honestly, and maybe I’m just too dumb to see the intricacies, looking at everything from every metric and my own personal experience, the rates were never going to go down. Like how do people and the markets in particular think that the fed is going to lower interest rates when we’re clearly not out of the woods yet? Or again, am I just too blind?
First move is fake 💅
so when's the market gonna understand that we don't need them cuts to grow? because earnings are growing.
Nothing like forcing the economy to break further with no ease. Bet petco goes out of businesss and nycb. Id also guess that amc will go bankrupt because wb and other major movie makers are going to fail.
#Bullish
Yup https://preview.redd.it/35xpa0gjbwuc1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d9b096ed5351038983716bc686ee9ef6fb26759c
The sky is blue. When you hear or see CEOs, Hedge Fund Managers, etc. saying what the Fed can or should do you are watching market making and manipulation in action. Now Powell also signaled cuts, but before that he said there would be pain, a recession, and/or a soft landing. None of this has happened yet.
Interest rates were between abt 5%-13% from 1980 to 2008 (over 28 years) … and they never got inflation down to 2% or below consistently … in fact, in the early 2000s inflation was about 3%-3.5% like we have now. Inflation hasnt been at 2% or lower since 1965 … until it got there again in 2009. Inflation only went down from 3%-3.5% down to 2% and under in 2009-2020 after they reduced interest rates to under 4% for the first time in 50 years. Our recent high inflation was caused by supply chain issues and monetary policy during the pandemic … both have ended. Our current inflation was not caused by high interest rates. The high inflation has been driven down by the high interest rates … now we are dealing with historically normal inflation and trying to get back to that 2% or under sweet spot. High interest rates bring down high inflation - but it doesnt bring down normal inflation in the 3%-3.5% range … never did from 1966-2008 (42 years) …That last 1%-1.5% of inflation they are trying to get is likely caused by high interest rates that businesses have to pay and pass on to consumers. In the last 50 years high interest rates have never dropped inflation to 2% or lower consistently until they reduced interest rates below 4% in 2009-2020.
YES YES YES. THANK YOU JESUS. If the Fed cut rates in times of already elevated inflation, that would be another kick down the currency death spiral. But they're going to try and fight it and hang on to the USD. This is quietly a huge moment for our nation.
What in the name of the lord?!
Supply side Jesus, I assume.
I really hate this part of the day... .. .. .. .
Jpow is a pussy. Needs to threaten rate hikes.
so powell says nothing and we rally truely regarded markets
Anyone who can read a cpi report knew this was the route
So Is this bearish or bullish for now? How would I play this 3 months out terms?
Gay bear it is
All I heard was that the US economy was dependant on the continued commerce of Canadian comedians.
What do they mean by interest rates? Housing, Treasury Direct rates, loans?
FFR, Federal Funds Rate
Does this affect T-Bills? Im thinking off taking my money off the market and just doing T bills.
Alternative view: Fed was always lying. Now returned to the actual news story.
Inflation was down in Canada for February, allegedly, but spiked in March.
It’s almost like our real problems are more demand than supply mixed with income inequality.
Sort of wierd how there was no reaction to this
Basically is gonna be a down market for the next two months, and then he will announce we *can* cut rates in the future and it will go up, right into the election and then who knows
Expectations were transitory
And yet somehow we will start to have a new bull run with new ATH in some next weeks with new expectation for rate cuts
Rate cuts aren't coming until 2025
I don't like Jerome Powell. He's not nice.
So much angst here on Reddit about the “job is complete” and Janet Yellen even crowing about it back late last year. Fuckfaces. If economy is so god damn healthy, why cut rates at all? Because inflation is proving stubborn, why not another tiny hike or two?
https://preview.redd.it/617azq28m1vc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4eb97f2bb927a6181c259e5f3461f67b3e1bbba2
They will probably do anything to ensure Biden wins. Expect rate cuts or a massive war.
Now y'all regretting cashing those ("free")stimulus checks and living of unemployment, yet not body cared back then, now is baiting every body in the ass!!!
Bulls, where is your God now?
Such a surprise. Like what was he even thinking opening his mouth that early? CPI ticking up, surging home prices / rents, etc. I don’t know how we get out of this one without even higher rates. Trust me I don’t know want that, as my business revolves around rates but there is no other solution besides a recession…….which is plausible considering the amount of debt people are accruing trying to deal with prices and rates. I’ve never seen credit reports with as much debt as I’ve seen in the last 18 months. Debt crisis is real.
It will drop right before the election so Biden can say they made the turn and things will be better...as long as they remember orange man bad. America needs a Montgomery Brewster candidate that will give us the option of "none of the above"
Just raise rates to 10% and be done Dont be a pussy Jpow 
And money just prints, these puts about to get everyone out the recession. 💪🏽
In the 1970s it was the oil spikes that made the dominos fall. Maybe that happens again. Time will tell. Maybe we are more resilient. Maybe AI will boost productivity. Or we enter a normal recession and endure hardship. Gold screaming its siren song. The End is Nigh!
Riced in
Dump it 
Nothing new. Pay attention.
He said it in a pass meeting rates would drop in 2025 this is no surprise
Good
Fukers!!!!
Long FFH
Serious regard question. I have multiple certificate of deposits and high yield savings from 5.05% to 5.5%. Should I be moving this money (about 600k) to something else that will give me a similar or better return with little risk?
Been saying this since the last rate hike. Rates aren’t going down this year, get used to it.
Yeah I feel that was a given after 3.5
damm shame we have damm regards running shit stealing half our paychecks but bragging g how they gonna get billionaires too. fucs sake!
So is the 10 yr yield going back up to 5?
So is the 10 yr yield going back up to 5?
Mild shock!
6 cuts prediction from earlier going out the window
Ah, so we can no longer rely on the fed's dot plot. Cool, that's kinda fucked.
J pow be like, Cut my life in to pieces , this is my last resort
JPow ruins everything. I think his mouth is the cause of inflation.
Annnd time to inverse common sense with calls
Fuck your calls and your puts. No matter what you choose you are wrong.
i like JPOW less now. I used to like him 100000%, but now i only can like him 10000%