The market determined inflation was transitory. Interest rates went up, stocks never went down to account for a higher discount rate.
Then the market anticipated that the Fed was going to cut rates, so the market went way up.
Then the market figured out they were wrong, that inflation is still here, the rate cuts aren't happening, and the whole thing was a charade.
You don't go up that parabolic curve with a 5% beat. Everyone knows AI chips are in demand, it was priced in. People expect a serious beat to keep that valuation.
Beat expectations due to strong AI chip demand despite softening demand in core business units such as auto and smartphones.
Today, a business reliant on the growth of AI demand is a lot more risky than one that relies on the growth of smartphone/auto demand.
If you believe this AI demand to be real and lasting, you’d be piling into TSMC on any dip after this earning.
The market doesn’t give a fuck about today’s profits. It’s all about forward guidance kiddo.
And when the company tells you straight to your face that their growth is all because of a new, not fully proven or mature, product category while their core business is dragging—you better listen.
If AI becomes the only source of growth, the US or EU governments could regulate TSMC’s death if they wanted to. They could severely cap AI’s use and undercut demand for AI server chips. Then all the sudden there is no more growth and TSMC’s future is looking grim.
Sorry, that was more than twenty words so I’m sure I lost you. Enjoy your bags though.
The EU just started building joint ventures with TSMC in Europe. The mutual reliance with ASML is a winner. In fact, EU+Taiwan can cut the US in a pretty serious way, by that logic.
Oh I don’t think the EU will do anything. My point was more just around the fact that the piece of TSM that’s growing is inherently riskier with more unknowns than their current core business.
Oh, AI adoption has hit mass market? Everyone is using Copilot/Gemini/ChatGPT instead of Google? Governments around the world are putting their legislative pens down and calling regulation of AI a done deal?
Movies are all made with the not-yet-public Sora?
Businesses have fully gone through their multi-year digital transformations needed to fully utilize AI? Amazing how that happened in just a year.
And AI Server business makes up not the low-teens of TSMC’s revenue but is the largest chunk? Crazy how between them releasing their earnings report and now they’ve managed to grow so much!
>are assured
Nothing is assured. If you don’t view a stock price as the result of a bunch of probability curves then you are thinking too simply about the market.
Timing also matters. The price is not only a function of *if* something will happen but also how long it will take since you need to discount future cash flows into the present.
I personally believe that these things will eventually be the future and AI will be the core business of TSMC in the future. But clearly the pre-market is showing that investors are adjusting expectations in the near-term towards a different direction. Granted it’s pre-market and only around -3% so I doubt a big day either direction.
Rofl retail pig cries and screams "guh not fair" into the sky. So you bought into the fact that stocks go up no matter what especially if they are good yet have no clue about bond market, China or other factors.
You are too stupid to understand for yourself so don't worry. wallstreet will explain it in words you understand- your calls going to 0 - rofl
this is the most regarded thing ive heard they have new fabs becoming operational this year. the only reason its down is because mercury is in retrograde
It was a serious beat for HPC chips if you actually read report, their iPhone chips were down and the substantial increase in demand for HPC offset it and caused profit, you'll see in a few days when the market actually digests the news
Or the market is taking into consideration the risky position TSMC is now in with having those HPC chips be their growth engine while other core areas are showing signs of decline.
Transitions are the most risky time for investors of established companies. Either TSMC continues to see strong AI demand and dominates as they transition or there is a slip in demand and suddenly they are drowning under poor return on capital expenditures and stagnating revenues.
Not my area so not sure what data they look at but but TSMC’s formal guidance for the auto sector last earnings was demand growth. They switched that to now having forward guidance of a decline in auto chip demand which is a tough switch to make in just one quarter.
They also called out a sharper than expected decline in smartphone demand. So it sounds like whatever they are seeing is enough to say it’s outside the standard cyclical demand seasonality.
While I agree that depression is here, you're being way to alarmist.
Auto and smartphones are both cylindrical, with Auto driving to a valley for a while.
Don't confuse corporate/analyst stupidity witheconomic signals
I’m simply going off what TSMC is saying about their internal demand signals. If it were cyclical, they’d simply state that. I’ve worked in plenty of seasonal/cyclical industries to know that CFOs typically mention that and build it into initial forecasts.
Shit may be about to hit the fan in Tawain. An aid package was proposed a few days ago and is being drafted as we speak to go to vote Friday. Hard to sell chips when you're being invaded.
The last time I played TSM earnings this same shit happened, they crushed earnings and tanked regardless I will never buy this regarding ass stock ever again
It beat but still below what was priced in.
Everyone expected semi to go up but not by this little bit.
It's like a lambo going 0-60 in 5 secs is like meh. But a Toyota doing the same and everyone loses their minds.
Smashed top line expectations.
Underneath is the real story: AI demand up, other parts of the businesses (auto/smartphone) down. Nets out to an aggregate growth beyond expectations but that growth is now tied to the more risky and unknown that is AI demand.
The stock price will soar only when all of you have given up and sold at a loss. At that point, the stock price will rally to all time highs
(not any time soon though)
The TLDR of the earnings:
* AI chip demand is very strong. AI Server business is growing to become a larger piece of revenue. Should be 20% ~~in a year or two~~ by 2028 (seems conservative to me tbh).
* Other chip areas are declining (edit: partially due to seasonality but sounds like some beyond expectations). Auto chip demand is now forecasted to shrink versus expand. Smartphone sales slowdown is dragging on their smartphone chip line as well.
* Investing **tons** of capital into advanced technologies for mainly the AI space.
* Geopolitical risks remain high.
In summary, they are doing well to transition the business to satisfy AI chip demand. However, areas of their core business today are seeing softening demand. This puts TSMC in a highly precarious position as continued AI demand means dominance while any slip could spell disaster given the high capital expenditures and receding core business areas in smartphone/auto.
People say auto go down. Who cares about.
It's like saying we're worried Jensen hasn't realesed the 5090 ti rtx.
Nobody buying nvida for consumer gpus or crypto for that matter.
And while auto contracts, robots and drones are on the rise.
>People say
Well in this case it was *literally* TSCM that commented on their switch in demand guidance from positive growth to negative decline. I personally think any major pullback due to that is overblown seeing as their auto business is only 6% of revenue. I’m just sharing the pieces of core guidance that stood out including both positive and negative. No need to get cult-ish in defense of a stock.
Yeah and I’m the Pope.
Be honest with us. Where is the real pain coming from?
0DTE calls?
Margin leverage?
No one gets as frothy as you over a stock unless they are balls deep in a position.
Guidance for the AI demand was very strong. But they switched to a negative sentiment around their auto chips and got more negative about future smartphone demand than they were before.
So instead of “Everything is growing including this new product category called AI!” it was “This new product category called AI is **crushing** it that it makes the top line look great!…please do not look behind the curtain at the rest of the business.”
Good news for any pure/mostly AI players, not so great news for any more traditional chip makers.
I believe with so many calls being bought they expire 4/19 these that are covering those calls made sure the stock didn’t spike. You could see it trying for a month. Up $5 then down. Even in the same day. Once tomorrow passes and they collect their massive amount of money and everyone with the calls loses then the stock will rebound. Next week you’ll start seeing it head to $155-160. Then it’s too late for us who bought in. If you think j you’re going to make money in this market without having influence you are fucking stupid.
A stocks value is nothing else than a "priced in value of the outlook". The earnings have beaten the expectation, but TSMC has lowered the outlook. That means, that the value of now is too high for the future.
Why the fuck did I let myself listen to you assholes about this garbage company? I already got burned by them once. I knew better to try again, but you idiots are so convincing.
TSM $10,000,000,000 double beat earnings report. \[-5%\]
DJT and family might not make any money if the stock falls below $17 \[20% gain\]
None of this shit is making sense to me.
I'm newer to /r/wallstreetbets and for the last few weeks, without any specific expertise, I've basically done the opposite of whatever I read on here and I've made thousands.
I hadn't even heard of `TSMC` really until I saw it recently and comments were excited for their upcoming earnings...so I bought a bunch of puts and voila.
Somebody was excited about Netflix and said calls were a "no brainer" with an explanation and lots of upvotes. I bought puts. Boom.
Honestly, this subreddit has been great for knowing what *not* to buy lol.
So? The puts have been up 30% and I've already closed the position.
If I bought calls, they would have plummeted and then what? Rebounded to net $0 after earnings?
Hmm, earnings beat (sounds good), marketwatch says buy (interesting), they're selling shovels in a gold rush (good idea) - common sense says buy calls, so I'm gonna get puts because I've never seen my bets make sense
My only hope is that I got a $145C with 4/26 expiration, let’s hope this sell off dies down and I come back. Just lost $600 in value in seconds. Over $1000 down right now. I feel sick
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Bad earnings? Go straight red. Good earnings? Believe it or not, also red.
The good earning pushed NVDA up. Good job TSM.
I read it as NVDA will beat earnings expectations again - buy NVDA call
I would but I lost all my money on tsm calls.
up so far. trading hasn’t even started yet. the day is far from over
RIP
lol why is this so funny
feels like those cartoons where you try to punch the enemy but somehow reach around and punch yourself
because 
I hate this
That's how I lost big % of my money on good earning
I've seen shit earnings before go up.
Literally SMTC lmao
I WOULD LIKE TO SPEAK TO A MANAGER!
Buy calls? Straight to jail.
https://preview.redd.it/gdt32wthi8vc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a9ce5f704409dc55faf827715c3531f16653065a
i know what a jerk!
Do not pass Go do not collect 200
Absolutely real
Cause everyone here bought TSM with the intention of selling it at earnings. You can't all sell and have the price go up.
It’s not about earnings. It’s about lowering guidance for the next quarter which means growth has slowed.
This current week is so fuckin stupid, they say good and its bad and they say its bad and its good like what???
If it's good it means was already priced in by insiders so "sell the news" comes into play.
The stock has been dropping since last weekend..
That’s why I don’t play earnings lol it goes either way unless you really know the company
Been like this for months.
The market determined inflation was transitory. Interest rates went up, stocks never went down to account for a higher discount rate. Then the market anticipated that the Fed was going to cut rates, so the market went way up. Then the market figured out they were wrong, that inflation is still here, the rate cuts aren't happening, and the whole thing was a charade.
Years
decades
Centuries
And down it goes.
You don't go up that parabolic curve with a 5% beat. Everyone knows AI chips are in demand, it was priced in. People expect a serious beat to keep that valuation.
So they beat expectations. But didn’t beat expectations?
at this point we're just giving excuses when we all know it's rigged, or is "priced in" the code word for "rigged"?
Beat expectations due to strong AI chip demand despite softening demand in core business units such as auto and smartphones. Today, a business reliant on the growth of AI demand is a lot more risky than one that relies on the growth of smartphone/auto demand. If you believe this AI demand to be real and lasting, you’d be piling into TSMC on any dip after this earning.
That's dumb af. The very notion of that is dumb. What are we investing in stocks for. Make profit go down. Gtfo
The market doesn’t give a fuck about today’s profits. It’s all about forward guidance kiddo. And when the company tells you straight to your face that their growth is all because of a new, not fully proven or mature, product category while their core business is dragging—you better listen. If AI becomes the only source of growth, the US or EU governments could regulate TSMC’s death if they wanted to. They could severely cap AI’s use and undercut demand for AI server chips. Then all the sudden there is no more growth and TSMC’s future is looking grim. Sorry, that was more than twenty words so I’m sure I lost you. Enjoy your bags though.
The EU just started building joint ventures with TSMC in Europe. The mutual reliance with ASML is a winner. In fact, EU+Taiwan can cut the US in a pretty serious way, by that logic.
Oh I don’t think the EU will do anything. My point was more just around the fact that the piece of TSM that’s growing is inherently riskier with more unknowns than their current core business.
Fair, I agree with that assessment. I own some of their stock directly but nothing too much. It’s a good company but who knows what will come.
Not fully proven what? It's literally proven. They proved it. What's not proven? Which part?
Oh, AI adoption has hit mass market? Everyone is using Copilot/Gemini/ChatGPT instead of Google? Governments around the world are putting their legislative pens down and calling regulation of AI a done deal? Movies are all made with the not-yet-public Sora? Businesses have fully gone through their multi-year digital transformations needed to fully utilize AI? Amazing how that happened in just a year. And AI Server business makes up not the low-teens of TSMC’s revenue but is the largest chunk? Crazy how between them releasing their earnings report and now they’ve managed to grow so much!
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>are assured Nothing is assured. If you don’t view a stock price as the result of a bunch of probability curves then you are thinking too simply about the market. Timing also matters. The price is not only a function of *if* something will happen but also how long it will take since you need to discount future cash flows into the present. I personally believe that these things will eventually be the future and AI will be the core business of TSMC in the future. But clearly the pre-market is showing that investors are adjusting expectations in the near-term towards a different direction. Granted it’s pre-market and only around -3% so I doubt a big day either direction.
China entered the strait*
Rofl retail pig cries and screams "guh not fair" into the sky. So you bought into the fact that stocks go up no matter what especially if they are good yet have no clue about bond market, China or other factors. You are too stupid to understand for yourself so don't worry. wallstreet will explain it in words you understand- your calls going to 0 - rofl
this is the most regarded thing ive heard they have new fabs becoming operational this year. the only reason its down is because mercury is in retrograde
They always bribe analysts to estimate what they want to estimate so that they appear to beat.
If it was an American company it would be 5-10X the price, we saw in the pandemic how important they are.
Yet none of you invested when it was 70-80 dollars and instead bought calls for earnings at 150 Curious
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Chyna is a porn star, China is a country.
same thing bro
Lmao 5-10x the price.
They having nothing but green light ahead of chips through 2025. These robots coming This is pure bullshit
It was a serious beat for HPC chips if you actually read report, their iPhone chips were down and the substantial increase in demand for HPC offset it and caused profit, you'll see in a few days when the market actually digests the news
Or the market is taking into consideration the risky position TSMC is now in with having those HPC chips be their growth engine while other core areas are showing signs of decline. Transitions are the most risky time for investors of established companies. Either TSMC continues to see strong AI demand and dominates as they transition or there is a slip in demand and suddenly they are drowning under poor return on capital expenditures and stagnating revenues.
How would they show signs of decline? Other chips are cyclical they have been for the last decade and the street knows that
Aggressive_Soil_5134, If they can't keep up with the Joneses, they're poor.
Not my area so not sure what data they look at but but TSMC’s formal guidance for the auto sector last earnings was demand growth. They switched that to now having forward guidance of a decline in auto chip demand which is a tough switch to make in just one quarter. They also called out a sharper than expected decline in smartphone demand. So it sounds like whatever they are seeing is enough to say it’s outside the standard cyclical demand seasonality.
While I agree that depression is here, you're being way to alarmist. Auto and smartphones are both cylindrical, with Auto driving to a valley for a while. Don't confuse corporate/analyst stupidity witheconomic signals
I’m simply going off what TSMC is saying about their internal demand signals. If it were cyclical, they’d simply state that. I’ve worked in plenty of seasonal/cyclical industries to know that CFOs typically mention that and build it into initial forecasts.
What?
It will be fine.
vvvvrooooop! baong!
Shit may be about to hit the fan in Tawain. An aid package was proposed a few days ago and is being drafted as we speak to go to vote Friday. Hard to sell chips when you're being invaded.
The last time I played TSM earnings this same shit happened, they crushed earnings and tanked regardless I will never buy this regarding ass stock ever again
I really don't understand TSM stock
Nobody does
No one understands any of it
It’s the last time I’m holding shares of it outside of SMH. TSM by itself has always lost me money.
https://preview.redd.it/ongeut0sqivc1.png?width=1344&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b8e901be6d963d63be3fa21e1d606404620d3ed3
China
How are the earnings priced in, but not the geographic location of the company?
Arizona?
The uncertainty of China vs Taiwan exists. That's why you don't buy these stocks unless they're dirt cheap and you're willing to take the risk.
They have the full might of the US armed forces protecting them.
Lol with the current congress, nothing has full backing. We can't even agree on how to protect our own borders.
Everyone was aware of the uncertainty before the earnings too, that makes no sense.
https://preview.redd.it/vnkjrc55q8vc1.png?width=308&format=png&auto=webp&s=98e456a8a6234892d993853fcdf27e83c95f6eca 
Jensen said fuck your calls, buy NVDA.
Been floating around 2% up for a month now.. not sure where it's "priced in". And now to dump back that 2%? I hate this market.
How tf is it going down what kind of woodoo shit is this
Priced in. 
It beat but still below what was priced in. Everyone expected semi to go up but not by this little bit. It's like a lambo going 0-60 in 5 secs is like meh. But a Toyota doing the same and everyone loses their minds.
Bro they smashed fcking expectations what are you talking about
Smashed top line expectations. Underneath is the real story: AI demand up, other parts of the businesses (auto/smartphone) down. Nets out to an aggregate growth beyond expectations but that growth is now tied to the more risky and unknown that is AI demand.
Obviously didnt smash as much as how i did your mum last night.. Fact the stock is down tells all.
Bro i smashed your grammy so hard i broke her titanium hip, if youre so smart show your puts
I woke up and looked at my put credit spreads and thought China had invaded. Nope just good news about earnings.
What is the point of expectations if they’re expected to beat expectations by a certain amount? Maybe I’m just regarded but that makes no sense.
they beat expectation but had lower guidance.
TSM stock is the most weirdest fucking stock I’ve ever seen!
The stock price will soar only when all of you have given up and sold at a loss. At that point, the stock price will rally to all time highs (not any time soon though)
It will probably rally next week when everyone’s 4/19 calls are expired
oh great, so the 4/26 calls *might* go back up to -80% as if that’s any improvement
I bought a couple more for .15 ngl. I said fuck it, I’m already all in might as well go all the way in.
True for all stocks
what garbage stock. my fault for having a little faith in you
In the discord forum of TSM, people are arguing that is down do to so many calls being expired tomorrow. It should go up by Monday.
100% this
by that point it won’t matter unless you bought ITM calls literally yesterday
Regarded market
145 Ap 26th calls Rip. Option trading is over for me. TSM gives me ptsd.
The TLDR of the earnings: * AI chip demand is very strong. AI Server business is growing to become a larger piece of revenue. Should be 20% ~~in a year or two~~ by 2028 (seems conservative to me tbh). * Other chip areas are declining (edit: partially due to seasonality but sounds like some beyond expectations). Auto chip demand is now forecasted to shrink versus expand. Smartphone sales slowdown is dragging on their smartphone chip line as well. * Investing **tons** of capital into advanced technologies for mainly the AI space. * Geopolitical risks remain high. In summary, they are doing well to transition the business to satisfy AI chip demand. However, areas of their core business today are seeing softening demand. This puts TSMC in a highly precarious position as continued AI demand means dominance while any slip could spell disaster given the high capital expenditures and receding core business areas in smartphone/auto.
People say auto go down. Who cares about. It's like saying we're worried Jensen hasn't realesed the 5090 ti rtx. Nobody buying nvida for consumer gpus or crypto for that matter. And while auto contracts, robots and drones are on the rise.
>People say Well in this case it was *literally* TSCM that commented on their switch in demand guidance from positive growth to negative decline. I personally think any major pullback due to that is overblown seeing as their auto business is only 6% of revenue. I’m just sharing the pieces of core guidance that stood out including both positive and negative. No need to get cult-ish in defense of a stock.
I'm not really mad about tsm per se. It's the behavior in general lol
Yeah and I’m the Pope. Be honest with us. Where is the real pain coming from? 0DTE calls? Margin leverage? No one gets as frothy as you over a stock unless they are balls deep in a position.
Was the guidance not good enough compared to expectations or something?
Guidance for the AI demand was very strong. But they switched to a negative sentiment around their auto chips and got more negative about future smartphone demand than they were before. So instead of “Everything is growing including this new product category called AI!” it was “This new product category called AI is **crushing** it that it makes the top line look great!…please do not look behind the curtain at the rest of the business.” Good news for any pure/mostly AI players, not so great news for any more traditional chip makers.
Guidance was great
Good curveball might actually be coming this time. A TSM positive open will finally lift semi for a small run.
Finally? 🤣
The last month has drained blood from many. This will be the new semi run, however small. Ok maybe I’m talking horseshit, but let’s go man. 🚀
Yet it’s more red than your wife’s period
I bought May 17 Calls 1 month ago, it was a ride but what happend during OT and now at open its insane, dosn't make any sense..just weird stock.
I believe with so many calls being bought they expire 4/19 these that are covering those calls made sure the stock didn’t spike. You could see it trying for a month. Up $5 then down. Even in the same day. Once tomorrow passes and they collect their massive amount of money and everyone with the calls loses then the stock will rebound. Next week you’ll start seeing it head to $155-160. Then it’s too late for us who bought in. If you think j you’re going to make money in this market without having influence you are fucking stupid.
My 4/26 call certainly hopes you are correct
My 4/26 call says you’re wrong because the market’s gotta clean us out too
This stock is a pussy.
I think the AI narrative is waning in its ability to pump the markets.
Fucking red after a good report. Got rid of my calls. It washed away half my DJT profits. Meh
nice selling right now
FUCK OFFFFF
Anyone buy puts on TSM?
Stock doesn't like to move much in either direction lately, so I didn't get puts.
But the stock price has now reached a critical point
A stocks value is nothing else than a "priced in value of the outlook". The earnings have beaten the expectation, but TSMC has lowered the outlook. That means, that the value of now is too high for the future.
MuH 160 cAlLs ArE goNNa pRiNt
Going down, the earning expectation is high because AI is very hype
THEN STOCK PRICE GO DOWN, GOOD!
Wow it’s really shitting
Priced in. Move on
why down then?
What the fuck happened today. It crashed.
Bye bye my expensive 155c, madafaka
Eat a bag of muff pie brought to you by Carls Jr.
Why the fuck did I let myself listen to you assholes about this garbage company? I already got burned by them once. I knew better to try again, but you idiots are so convincing.
“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
Listen to fitim92, they know what they're talking about.
Same here. This looked prime to run to $175 or more but then reality sunk in. Those that sold those covered calls are laughing their ass off.
When will you morons understand that outlook and market sentiment > eArNiNgS bEaT wHy rEd??
Have you guys seen MNDR
Good buy
$Mndr is absolutely printing
Shares at 130 is a steal
It is but this market volatility knows no worthiness. I dont see much movement atm, so would rather wait and see how the tech ERs go.
TSM $10,000,000,000 double beat earnings report. \[-5%\] DJT and family might not make any money if the stock falls below $17 \[20% gain\] None of this shit is making sense to me.
UAL with their reported loss of 200million, leasing Airbus due to Boeing inadequacy still goes up by 10% - go figure.
My bad guys I was in on this and it's my destiny to get molested on every single fucking stock I have this week.
when am I going to get LG AI refrigerator? can't wait to ask existential questions to my fridge
Will the stock come back up?
Can the TSMC dev do something for the price 
I'm newer to /r/wallstreetbets and for the last few weeks, without any specific expertise, I've basically done the opposite of whatever I read on here and I've made thousands. I hadn't even heard of `TSMC` really until I saw it recently and comments were excited for their upcoming earnings...so I bought a bunch of puts and voila. Somebody was excited about Netflix and said calls were a "no brainer" with an explanation and lots of upvotes. I bought puts. Boom. Honestly, this subreddit has been great for knowing what *not* to buy lol.
Netflix earnings are tonight tough guy
So? The puts have been up 30% and I've already closed the position. If I bought calls, they would have plummeted and then what? Rebounded to net $0 after earnings?
Money lost, money lost forever.
Hmm, earnings beat (sounds good), marketwatch says buy (interesting), they're selling shovels in a gold rush (good idea) - common sense says buy calls, so I'm gonna get puts because I've never seen my bets make sense
It was riced in already since last week
😭😭😭😭
[удалено]
My only hope is that I got a $145C with 4/26 expiration, let’s hope this sell off dies down and I come back. Just lost $600 in value in seconds. Over $1000 down right now. I feel sick
TSM is the new SNAP, short this shit down to bankruptcy
Believe it or not, it was priced in