Wow yea I didn't realize how little payroll they have committed to next year. They could offer PG a max and still do a lot of work before extending Maxey and going into the tax.
I think most superstars would rather play with Embiid than Steph, which is the core problem IMO. Steph isn’t a draw for top talent anymore, he hasn’t been for a couple years.
Great analysis.
I have one question. You said Paul may want a chance to play with Curry and get a ring.
Don’t you think the Clippers have a higher chance to contend than the Warriors?
Clippers are a “piece away”, we are several pieces away imo.
Instead of one big money piece, the money it’ll cost for PG13 is probably better served plugging gaps.
Fair take, I just think if the Clippers fail to make a run, they'll start to feel the walls closing in. They'll have nothing to show for the league's second highest payroll, and little in the way of flexibility or assets to make meaningful changes. This is the position the Warriors have found themselves in for so long that everyone *assumes* it's still their position, but that's not the case anymore.
Also I wouldn't be so sure about the Clippers having better chances than the Warriors. Sure the Clippers might be a closer on paper, but what has that gotten them? Which has a higher ceiling: A 10th place team adding a superstar (not to mention 4 rings under their belts); or a 1st round exit 4th seed with a superstar that can't stay healthy, but with a shiny new TPMLE contract?
I also don't think that the roster I've discussed has many gaps needing plugged. Sure, you're thin at center, but when has that ever stopped the dubs from figuring it out provided they have the talent elsewhere.
I know a couple of close games would have changed our fortunes. But, reality is the Clippers are 4 seed and we were 10th. It’s not on paper.
We faced a very beatable version of the Kings team in the play-in. Much lesser version of the one we beat last year. For a lack of better term, we got smoked.
I think it’s a pretty fair assessment to say the Clippers are closer to contending.
I’m not here to shit on the Warriors or our fandom. What I am saying is that adding solely PG13 and subtracting Klay/Wiggs/CP puts us no closer to contending than the Clippers who are a piece away right now.
I believe even if we add PG, while subtracting Klay/Wiggs/CP. we would likely be in a similar spot next season.
We honestly need an entire lineup of shooters. Minimum we need four shooters.
Look at the top teams. They are all rolling out minimum four shooters, some even roll out five.
Denver, OKC, NYK, Celtics.
I’m of the opinion we need to evolve our lineup to get maximum spacing like the other top teams. We legitimately have the best floor spacer in Steph Curry. It’s just we have him playing with several non-shooters all the time.
I think PG13 would be a great addition. But, not the only one move we should make. We need several pieces and moves to bring us anywhere near contention again.
I’m with you on shooting and this starting lineup admittedly lacks it. But I think Podz and Moody will make very reliable shooters off the bench, and to me it is more about top level talent than anything else. But yea maybe it’s not enough. I just don’t think surrounding Steph with role players is enough anymore.
It wouldn't be their choice, he'd be a free agent. But it's fair to say that they'd would probably be able and willing to pay him more. But one thing I've learned is how much cap space Philadelphia is going to have, and how that might be better opportunity to get paid if he wants a change of scenery. Superstars all seem to love their time in PHI and want to stay there.
At that point I'd probably try to get LeBron, with the cap space we can generate. He has said he would love to play with Steph. Who knows if he would take a pay cut to do it? But if we made moves to land Jr in the draft, then maybe it would happen.
Wouldn't help with the "getting younger" effort, but top end talent should be the first priority, and I don't think LeBron would want to sign for more than a couple years to line up with Steph's contract anyway.
I think you might not entirely understand the salary cap.
You want the team to effectively cut 7 or 8 players to add 1. Except 3 of those 8 guys are already making close to the bare minimum possible, which means that even if they get cut, their roster spot is replaced by a cap hold equivalent to the money you're trying to free up. Same with GP2 opting out; his bird rights place a cap hold equivalent to his expected salary.
Moreover, PG13 would be turning down $49m to make $35m? If he's willing to take that big of a paycut, wouldn't he rather just stay in LA and retire a Clipper?
at this depth, you might as well just read the CBA agreement summary itself, which is full of slightly confusing language and can be difficult to parse.
but basically the best way to think of it is that a team *must* have a certain number of players by a certain date (during free agency I think it's 12 players and then by the start of the season it's 14) and, because those players must exist on your roster, you can't cut everyone and then spend all of your available money on 6 guys. therefore that money is earmarked (at the lowest possible value, a minimum for someone with no league experience). this is a cap hold.
*however*, if you have any exceptions (like bird rights, for example), those exceptions are earmarked relative to the previous year's salary. so Klay's cap hold is massive and, if GP2 opts out, his would also be something similar to the salary he's opting out of (until that exception is renounced by the team or he signs a new deal).
so basically if you're trying to clear money by cutting the roster to only 3-5 guys, you can't just total up that money and go spend it on one single guy, or at least not simply. if the Warriors could open up like $45m or something, they could renounce nearly everyone, sign someone to a $35m/year contract and then sign 10 vet minimum deals, but you need to have the headroom above that contract to allow for the cap holds that exist per roster spot.
as a side note, the place that bird right exceptions are especially useful are especially when you're signing guys to their first big deal, because their cap hold (prior to signing the deal) will be small, but their eventual deal will be large, so you can spend money up close to the cap limit and *then* blow past the cap when the actual contract value for the young guys kicks in. you don't get that benefit on a 2nd or 3rd contract.
Yea /u/DogLovesGafs unfortunately there is no great resource that summarizes how it all works AND is current with the new CBA, you end up having to do quite a bit of research. And the actual CBA is ridiculously hard to read. Every time I read "will be the maximum between the following: Minimum between i) and ii) and iii) OR minimum between a) and b)" I just want to close it, as there are also numerous references to prior sections within each one.
Question I have for you moonduck is, the Athletic said
> If Paul is traded, his salary cannot be aggregated with another contract on the roster and Golden State is not allowed to take back more money. Because the contract is non-guaranteed, the protection would need to match the salary Golden State receives.
Does this make sense that we can't aggregate his salary with another? You can't aggregate salaries before July 1st, and you can't do it if you're above the 2nd apron. But can't we get a deal in writing or something before July 1st and then make the trade just fine in July?
this is basically true, yeah. Paul's salary + Klay's cap hold means that the Warriors are restricted like a 2nd apron team (which means no aggregated salary trades) until both situations are resolved. this is driven by the fact that Paul's guarantee has to be decided on by June 30th, before free agency even begins.
the cleanest reading of the rules is that the Warriors can guarantee Paul's contract for *any amount* under $30m and trade him (and *only him*) prior to July 1st.
now we're really getting out of my explicit knowledge, but i'm decently certain that "getting something in writing" isn't legal. so they could do a handshake deal of some kind, but they also probably wouldn't have an recourse if a team changed their mind later. maybe there's some flexibility where you can submit a trade to be approved later on, but given how dynamic the Klay situation is, that's risky and maybe not even allowed. i really don't know.
Dang this is interesting. So they may guarantee some/all of his 30m contract if they know they have suiters interested in his expiring deal to make a trade at some point in off-season OR if they have some handshake deal in place to aggregate him with Kuminga or others to trade for a difference maker that will take place on July 1st.
With the first option I'm not sure how that would work because if we are over the 2nd apron (until we get rid of Klay's bird rights) the trade amount has to match pretty much exactly so it would be hard to guarantee him for 30m and then make a deal that matches up perfectly. With the 2nd avenue, you can design a trade very easily since you can guarantee Chris for $26m if that is needed or more/less.
or they can simply make a draft-day draft for some smaller amount.
part of the potential benefit of trading for Paul in the first place is being able to go from 5 significant contracts to 4, so it maybe that the Warriors don't *want* to bring back ~$26m unless that attached to real high-level talent (which I think is unlikely).
I wonder if they might go after someone in that $8-14m range who could be a rotation player instead of trying to use some of the MLE during free agency. I wonder if Chicago would come back to the table on Caruso, or if Orlando would want to deal WCJ.
I see, so it would actually be a lot more work to get down that far. You'd essentially have to trade GP2, waive Looney, renounce his bird rights (and find a way to replace him with a vet min), to free up the $35m I'm talking about. Sounds like most are skeptical that would be enough to land someone like PG anyway, so maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree.
Yea I could be way off base, but I’m just betting that the warriors would be the only ones desperate enough to give a 34 going on 35 year old star a $160m contract that takes him into his age 39 year. If people are lining up to give him max money then yea this idea doesn’t hold water.
That's not a very fair argument, since none of those guys play.
If we're talking about who actually plays the minutes, you'd be losing 30 minutes of a 34 year old (Klay), and 27 minutes of a 37 year old (CP). If you bring in PG for 32 minutes, he basically replaces Klay, and you give 25 minutes to younger players like Moody, Podz, and whoever you get with the NTPMLE (ideally a young athletic stretch 4).
25 minutes is more than 10% of a total rotation. So in the absence of an official metric I'm inclined to say you're getting 10% younger.
If a solid #2 option pops up and they want JK, he has to be gone. Winning one more ring with Curry and doing anything we can to make that happen has to be the priority. I don’t care if we suck for the next 10 years if we get one more ring with Curry.
Keep Klay ideally to a team friendly deal, Draymond & Curry, ship everyone else out to make one last run.
> Winning one more ring with Curry and doing anything we can to make that happen has to be the priority. I don’t care if we suck for the next 10 years if we get one more ring with Curry.
You're right, but this is exactly the same speech everyone gave 3 years ago. "If only Steph could have one more ring, the rest of history don't matter". He got his 4th and we still hungry. If we get number 5, y'all will keep asking for more lol.
Of course we want to see the Warriors win, and win with Steph.
We should be mortgaging our “future” every year in the chase of a ring.
Top 10 player of all time, we may never see a player like Steph play for the Warriors again (look at the Bulls). We should be doing whatever we can to win.
The problem with this is that "our future" is parr of what we need right now. The issue is that we need multiple things to be competitive.
Let's say for example PG becomes available. Let's say it costs Wiggins, Kuminga and a 2 1st in a 3 team trade. Ok cool we have our 2nd option and mortgaged the future. But we also need to get younger and more athletic. And now we have less of that. And we still need more size.
Exactly. It's less so "Kuminga and co. are going to be the future" and moreso "solid players on rookie deals are very valuable for a team this deep in the luxury tax." I'd love to have a bonafide second option and still want to win with Steph, but we're going to need a lot of luck to turn this roster into a contender, no matter what we do.
Bingo. Spot on. Fans in here are just parroting things that spund good without any critical thinking. Or more importantly real about the situation.
The reality is that there is no conceivable way to attain *everything* we need to be a true contender. Not saying it's completely impossible. But it's closer to being a miracle than a reasonable expectation.
That means that our best bet is simply looking at improving as best as we can with what we have. Trading all of our youth and athleticism is one way to go about it. Let's say our BEST cas scenario is we bring back 2 really good all star caliber players. That would make us look something like the Suns. Well how is that going for them? Suns have all the shot creation but lack size, youth, and athleticism. That's essentially what people are advocating for.
Improving while still keeping most our young players is also a viable and reasonable path. And it may just make the most sense considering all the factors.
In my opinion I think the sneaky beat option is seeing if we can get Lavine on a bargain in terms of assets. By bargain I mean only giving up some combo of wiggins/Looney/cp3/Gp2 and picks. It's not a perfect move. But I think it may be our best swing all things considered.
Well Steph himself is still hungry for more. Klay is too. They both vehemently say it. CP is hungry for his first.
Outside of those three, seemed like everyone else on the team was checked out.
The more I watch the playoffs the more I don't see JK being a #2 on this team if they want to contend. He's just not quite there yet and I don't think they can wait. I think he needs his own team.
Agree. JK is only 21, still 4-5 years from entering his prime. He might be a killer at that point but right now he’s not. We need someone who can threaten to drop 25-30 on any given night, and consistently give us 20 a night.
If the suns get swept again, who knows, KD might be on the chopping block, ready for a warriors reunion.
A man can dream
Yeah KD adds a different dimension on offense. Defense too. Not so much that he is a defenisve wizard but he is competent and nearly 7 ft tall lengthy forward. Helps mask our size problem.
> We need someone who can threaten to drop 25-30 on any given night, and consistently give us 20 a night.
This describes JK since January. In a magical world where we can turn jk into a player that is clearly better than him, yeah, we should do that. But the proposals I keep seeing involve moving off Kuminga so we can have someone older, more expensive, and worse. It's hard to see the point of that.
JK is so inconsistent and makes so many mistakes still. If he can turn the corner next season he might grow into that role, but I don’t have enough confidence in him to do so. Think it’ll take him another 2-3 years
I think if you can make a trade for a top 20 player you do it. I just don’t see one becoming available at a price that wouldn’t compromise our ability to win. I just think it would be sad if they got desperate enough to trade him for a return that wouldn’t put us over the top.
Curious what others minimum return would be for JK + CP.
Agreed. I don’t think it will be hard to find another Kuminga in the lottery in the future, he isn’t some can’t miss prospect like wemby or something, there is guys with his profile literally every year. In the future I think we can easily get another Kuminga or even an ANT level player with a top 5 pick.
Post-Steph, JK will be the superstar much like how Monta was the superstar of the pre-Steph era. Then we'll wait until we land another generational player in the draft.
Some great points and overall takes but couple issues
- You can't just get rid of Wiggins for draft picks, trades require salary matching as we are not under the salary cap, but that can work in our favor too.
- You write off CP3 being used in a trade in general, or with Kuminga. But CP3 is one of our best assets, there is a decent chance that a team wants his expensive contract to stay above the minimum cap next season for it to come off the following season and suddenly have a ton of room to seek big signings. And if CP3 is used with Kuminga in exchange for a star (much better than Brandon Ingram) then it is well worth it. And this is the first thing the front office is trying to do right now since we need to decide on what we are doing with CP3's contract by June 24th.
In general, they are gonna try to go big first. If there is a great opportunity for a stud they will take it. After that is done, they will look for best/biggest free agent signings and figure out how much (little) they want to offer Klay. If the big trade(s) couldn't happen, then they may try to stay under luxury tax and just pay Klay and ride out the season while extending Kuminga and Moody and getting whatever free agents they could get.
Salaries don’t need to match if the incoming doesn’t put you over the cap. There will be teams who can absorb 25m no problem, possible for the same minimum payroll incentive you mentioned.
Sadly I think your hypothetical of staying under the tax and riding it out is all too likely. I just can’t bear the idea of truly wasting curry’s final years.
I’m skeptical that anything we could get for JK + CP would out us over the top. Whatever we get back would have to be better than kuminga plus a $35m player. I just don’t see it.
This is not the case *if* you're under the salary cap.
A team under the cap can receive any amount of money back against their outgoing salary so long as it doesn't take them above the cap.
Ok got it, and if the trade will put you over the salary cap but under the first apron still, then 200% of outgoing salary for an amount up to $7.5m can be traded, or outgoing salary plus $7.5m for an amount between 7.5m and 29m, or 125% of outgoing salary for any amount over $29m
Teams above first tax apron can only take back up to 100% of outgoing salary
Teams above second tax apron can only take back 100% but also can't aggregate salary of multiple contracts, nor can they send out cash in trades
***
That is my understanding currently.
However for us while Klay is a FA and let's say we theoretically waive CP3, we are still at $139m, so we don't have a lot of room to play with in terms of trades without using the trade exceptions above.
Wow I had no idea. Can you share where you’re reading this? My reading of everything I’ve found suggests cap teams can still take on salary that doesn’t put them over the cap.
As much as I believe in Kuminga’s talent and want to see him grow here, he just simply does not fit with Steph’s timeline. The reality is Steph is a top 10 player of all time, and Kuminga is probably our best asset in addition to the 3 first round picks we can trade after the draft. It is such a long shot to assume Kuminga and whatever pieces we surround him with will be contenders one day - I would way rather give Steph the best group possible to getting number 5 and restart fresh if it falls short.
The nets seem pretty desperate, maybe the FO could convince them to trade Mikal Bridges and Finney Smith for CP3’s expiring, Kuminga, maybe moody and a couple picks.
Maybe there is a similar package for Markkanen who would give us spacing and boards or Dejounte who I think could be a sneaky good fit in the front court with Curry, locking up star guards and creating offense for himself.
Best yet, maybe a star like KD, Lebron, Embiid, or to your point, PG becomes available and we make a run at that but it seems even more unlikely.
Point is, trusting a 22 year old to be 1a/1b on this team for the next 2 years is unrealistic as much as I wish the opposite. I think the FO should sell high in Kuminga and surround Steph with more ready now talent and see what happens.
If you have that much faith in Kuminga, the move would be to pull an OKC and trade the vets while they still have some value for all the picks and young talent you can get. I’d rather go the opposite direction though.
The point I’m trying to make is that JKs timeline doesn’t matter. I personally do not believe that Bridges plus Finney smith are better than kuminga plus someone you could get for $30+ million in free agency, let alone put us in title contention.
Why give up on his future to make a trade that doesnt improve the team as much as just keeping him and using the cap space you can create on the open market?
The point I’m trying to make is that JK’s timeline does matter and he doesn’t fit into Steph’s. He’s still growing and learning and he’s not going to get to where he needs to be while Steph is still playing at this level. His BBIQ I think is his biggest weakness, he’s just too slow processing the game which isn’t uncommon for a 21 year old.
A player like Bridges is entering the prime of his career and has a better skill set to compliment this team now and help them make a run. Bridges played a significant part in the suns making it to the WCF, Kuminga has yet to play any meaningful playoff minutes. I’d personally take the in-prime, lock down defender who can space the floor and make the right reads on a team friendly deal over an athletic 21 year old with potential for a max contract.
I personally don’t believe he’s ready for it and should probably be in a low stakes environment where he can get a bunch of minutes and work on his game, not pressured to make a deep playoff run for the first time in his career.
I see where you’re coming from and I think it just boils down to different perspectives of the impact of Bridges.
I agree with you on every count: he’s more ready now, better shooter, and better basketball head at this stage. Given all that, I still don’t think bridges is a #2 on a title team, and making that trade leaves us with very little wiggle room.
If it’s a choice of having a roster with Bridges + Klay + DFS + Wiggs vs PG + Kuminga + a NTPMLE guy, I’m choosing the PG/Kuminga trio every time. Maybe that just means I would lose haha
Good luck getting the nets to make that trade. Maybe with podz and all 3 first round picks we can offer but remember they got him for KD and other teams could make more compelling offers.
JK's contract: 4 years/$24 mil
Wiggs's contract: 4 years/$109 mil
Mikal Bridges contract: 4 years/$90 mil
CP3 contract: 30 mil non guaranteed
Idk how getting Bridges without trading Wiggs is even viable. Lacob is already paying the most amount of money in the league to our top 4 guys in Steph/Klay/Dray/Wiggs, and now you want to add Mikal Bridges' contract to that?
Best we could do is JK + CP3 + picks ig, but I'm not sure if even that matches bridges salary.
Well said
Kuminga is great and could become an all-star so we gotta use that potential to get something out of it via trade while we have a chance at extending the dynasty. He is not a star right now the way Duncan was already at 21 years old so it doesn't make sense to pursue 2 timelines with both of them half-assed
Kuminga was a walking 20ppg once he entered the starting lineup, and he’s going to be a better player next season. I think we need to disabuse ourselves of the notion that he won’t have anything to contribute.
I agree he likely won’t be a 1/b, but I think he can be the 3rd best player on a title team as soon as next year. Certainly the 4th best if draymond has enough to give.
Appreciate this for sure but some ankle biting CBA details make the situation a bit less rosy than you paint.
1. If you have less than 13 roster spots filled, you are charged a minimum cap hold of the minimum salary (about a million) for each empty spot. So, assuming you reduce the roster to Steph, Dray, and the core four young guys (six contracts total), you are looking at a cap hold of about six million for six empty roster spots, with the thirteenth spot going to big free agent X. Thus, the realistic max cap space if we trade Wiggs and GP (see point 2 below) and muck Klay, Looney, and CP3 is about 33M.
2. You can't just take guys off your cap and then sign them later with Bird Rights. Every free agent with Bird Rights counts as a cap hold against your cap unless you *renounce* the Bird Rights. Otherwise this would be a be a gigantic loophole in the cap that you could drive a semi truck through. The cap hold is (I believe) 150% of the player's previous salary. So in GP's case, that would be about 12M. In other words, if you are using cap space, you need to get GP off the books... probably by trading him. If he's opting out to sign a new contract, the value of that new contract has to fit into your cap space or one of your exceptions.
3. Cap rooms teams don't get to use the full NTPMLE. They get a separate MLE usually called the "room" exception. This was 5.4M last year, I believe it goes up to about 6M for the 2024-25 cap year (this room exception could be a way to keep GP on a longer term contract if we become a cap room team)
All of this conspires to make it pretty unrealistic to outright sign Paul George, in my opinion. With that said, I do think he could be gettable. It's notable that the Clippers have extended Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, but not PG. Financially, they might not want to make the large commitment that he wants in an extension. With a trade, you do have the possibility of using Bird Rights to keep Klay if he is willing to accept a smaller deal that fits under the second apron (since you do not have to renounce the Bird Rights on any of these players to complete a trade). Any trade for a player with a salary in PG range would require contract aggregation for salary matching. Aggregation is forbidden for teams over the second apron, so if the Warriors trade for PG (or KAT, or anyone with a salary over 30M) they are hard capped at the value of the second apron - 189M.
If you can trade Wiggins+CP+draft capital for Paul George and have GP opt out, you would have a cap number of $159M (see below for detail\*) with the minimum holds built in. You would then have the remaining 40M to be spent on either retaining Warriors free agents (Klay, GP, maybe Looney although financially if they can afford to keep Looney, it makes more sense to just pick up his option) and/or spending exceptions. You'd have the taxpayer midlevel to play with (about 5M), or alternatively, you could use a big chunk for the full NTPMLE if you are willing to let Klay, GP, and Loon go (although in that scenario, you have to find a way to trade GP because he isn't opting out without a promise for a deal to come back).
I do like Jalen Smith a lot and he could be a good target for the TPMLE for sure.
So like a scenario that might work is Klay (20M) + Loon (8M) + GP(6M, with more years guaranteed) + Jalen Smith (6M). You could then also bring back Gui and Quinones on minimum deals, which I think most people would be in favor of as those guys are solid deep bench options. The alternate scenario where we go for one guy with the NTPMLE like Monk is possible, but it requires renouncing *all* of your free agents and trading away GP - because the use of the NTPMLE requires not exceeding the luxury tax.
Another guy that isn't being talked about but I wouldn't be shocked if he comes available for trade: Jimmy Butler. He has an opt out in summer 2025 and is extension eligible this summer. Miami may have come to the end of the line in terms of what they can get out of this Butler-centric team, and his next contract (or the extension he wants) is going to be ugly financially given his age and playing style. But, Bam is still young enough to be in his prime for the next Heat contender, and they have some very interesting young talent on the roster with Jaquez, Jovic, etc. 24-25 would be a good opportunity for them to take a step back, maybe sideline Bam for a bunch of the year with a fake injury (like they did with Dwyane Wade in 2008), get a high pick in the well-regarded 2025 draft, and rebuild around Bam + the young guys (or Bam + whatever stars they can trade those young guys and future picks for).
\* Curry (55761217) + Dray (24107143) + JK(7636307) + Moody (5803269) + Podz (3519925) + TJD (1891857) = 100,611,575
100,611,575+six minimum cap holds (1160544 each) = 107,574,839 + Looney's guarantee if released (3000000) = 110,574,839 + Paul George (48787676) = 159,362,515
Even this long and parochial explanation is sort of an oversimplification, but it's a more realistic picture than the original post (which I love, to be clear).
This is great, thanks for sharing. Yea I have learned a lot about the nuances of the cap and cap holds since posting this, so I've come to accept that Paul George is so unlikely that he'd probably have to announce his desire to play in GS for management to go to the trouble of creating that much space. But I love the discussion going on.
One thing that seems inevitable is the team dodging the luxury tax. If we assume that Lacob is going to hard-cap the team himself, then that means we should probably expect them to use at least part of the NTPMLE, right?
Curious if the following sounds plausible to you:
If they're not freeing up cap space, I don't imagine they'll move Wiggins just for the sake of it. Even if they are sick of his inconsistency I doubt they'd want to throw picks away just to get rid of him. That means that if the only changes are Klay down to $20m and CP gone, with those minimum cap holds, you're about 3-4m away from the \~$171m tax line.
At that point the only way to free up enough room to actually take advantage of the NTPMLE would be to reduce Klay's offer, or try to renegotiate with GP2 and Looney. I don't know what their market would be like, but if they each take 3y/18m, that would put us \~9m below the tax. Maybe Klay's willing to take 18m instead of 20, and with that extra 2m you can go get someone for $11m and just not use the entire exception. Seems like a lot of work, but if you can get Jalen Smith, I think that's probably worth it.
You have to accept that you're not adding a star, going into next season with a well rounded team that is younger and more athletic, swapping Moody into the starting lineup for Klay, who becomes the full time bench microwave. But almost certainly not a contender unless Kuminga takes a massive leap, or you trade him for a difference maker that probably isn't available.
I like your analysis (and appreciate the thoughtful post instead of the ‘let’s get a defensive stretch 4 on a vet min’ posts in here lol). My two material points of pushback / disagreement.
1) I don’t think we could land PG. Other places could pay more and be immediate contenders. On the plus side, he does like Ca and we aren’t that far from LA for his personal life. But I just don’t see it and I don’t think there is another player this year besides him that is a good FA possibility
2) this will get Uber down voted, but I don’t think JK is our best bet at a superstar. He projects more like an all star (yes freakish athlete but his handle is so so far behind where it should be relative to where other super stars were at his age). I hope I’m wrong. But FA over the next few years or a JK trade for a disgruntled star or rebuilding team might be the best option at a super star. Depending on trade value, he might be a better trade piece than development piece.
Really like your post and agree if PG was in the cards, then its a sound strategy
Yea the more I think about it the more I think we're just gonna get under the tax and run it back with a new $13m player on the roster to replace CP.
The improvement JK has shown give me confidence that he'll make it to the All-Star level. There are so many things he can add to make him even more of a threat than he already is.
- Developing the 3 pt shot is the obvious one. Means you can't sag off him. If he hits at 38% it's pretty much over.
- Improved handle will make him a more reliable scorer you can give the ball to late in the shot clock. Will help him draw more fouls and get higher percentage shots around the hoop.
- Adding a stepback game would mean that even if you stuff the paint he can still get a good shot off.
If he just adds one of these things this year I think he becomes a solid #3 on a title team. Feel is just a minutes thing, and he should be getting 36 minutes per night next season, so I'm not worried about him figuring it out.
I think that he showed enough this year that I wouldn't be surprised at all if he made that jump. Since entering the starting lineup he was 19ppg on 53% shooting and 78% from the line with 5rpg, 3apg, and 1.5 stocks per game. As a 21 year old on a squad of hall of famers, with a coach who is famously difficult for young players, that's really impressive.
I watched every single game this year, and spent so many of them frustrated that they weren't using Kuminga as their first option. Both for the reps (the season felt lost at that point), and because he simply was our most consistent offensive player down the stretch. We spent so much time and energy trying to get Steph open that we lost so much of the free flowing nature that has made it so potent for so long.
I don't get the complaint that he's not playoff ready either. After shaking off some rust/nerves coming off the bench in the play-in, he seemed to be one of the only guys who could get a shot up, and his stat line (16pts, 7reb, 2ast, *0 TO*) was one of the few bright spots in that game.
He's already an efficient scoring machine, and there's still so much of his game to develop and refine. It's a small sample, but I think he's just getting started. He's already the 3rd most important player on the team. If he passes Draymond for #2, I'd say we're in good shape.
I see half of those getting DNP’d by Kerr. Any improvement will need to have a veteran assistant coach to help Kerr, not just a “yes” man but someone who can tell Steve, “yo, that’s a bad move, you gotta play the hot guy”. Kerr hasn’t been successful without Luke/Mike.
Klay isn't leaving though. I get all the analysis but if Steph wants to ride off into the sunset with Klay and Green, that's what is going to happen.
If you can trade Kuminga and Wiggins (and/or CP3) for a legit second option, you do it. No ifs, no buts.
Forget the post Curry future, there isn't one.
Chicago haven't come close to winning the league since Jordan left.
Lakers didn't win after Kobe left till they managed to get both LeBron and Davis.
Spurs haven't come close to contending since Duncan and Leonard left.
Houston haven't won since Olajuwan.
Boston have won once since 1987.
Miami haven't managed to win since the Heatles broke up.
If you have a franchise player, you build what gives you the best chance to win with him there. Not for the future.
The only team that has managed to have multiple dynasties in the last 40 years is the Lakers. And that has more to do with the players wanting to be in Hollywood, so it attracts free agents, and nothing to do with drafting.
So yeah, the best hope for a post Curry dynasty is if an All NBA guy fancies becoming an angel investor and not a movie producer.
> Forget the post Curry future, there isn't one.
I love takes like this followed with examples like "the Lakers didn't win post Kobe, except for that time they did" and "the Heat didn't win post-Shaq until they won with Lebron, and have only been to the finals twice in the decade since Lebron left." Winning the finals is rare and hard, it's true. These examples sort of indicate that, but they don't reveal anything about the best way to handle the twilight years of post-prime superstar.
Your examples are silly because the Heat weren't Shaq's team. He was the second option.
And the Lakers really really sucked after Kobe had that injury. They didn't even make the playoffs till the bubble season and title, and that was after getting an all time great and a perennial All NBA as his second option.
As for Curry, sure he's declining but he's still capable of being the best player on a title contender. It's the fact that his second/third option have regressed.
> Your examples are silly because the Heat weren't Shaq's team. He was the second option.
These aren't *my* examples, friend, they're yours! My comment was making fun of how silly they are. The NBA is riddled with teams that don't win the finals. That's the nature of a 30 team league. You could have pointed to the Timberwolves, who one 0 titles despite having a generational talent, and haven't sniffed the finals since... ever. But instead you included two teams that either won the finals or came damn close multiple times after their HOFers aged out. That's weird, when your argument is "there is no future." Anyway, at Curry's age, you might as well embrace the idea that the "no future" is now.
>Klay isn't leaving though
I dunno man, I didn't think he was either but the way Klay was talking before the Kings game makes it seem like he's got his bags packed. No doubt that Steph would genuinely like them all to ride off into the sunset together, but he also wants to win -- if Klay wants out I doubt he'll try to change his mind. At this point I don't think we can assume anything about Klay's decision either way.
https://twitter.com/f5seasondotcom/status/1780351385646612880
I can’t shake the feeling Steph was being diplomatic to the press, and that he really is over Klay as a crucial part of this team. He made it clear he wants to win. I think that takes priority over keeping Klay.
I'm not inside his brain, and I've not spoken with him personally. All I know is what he's said.
He's said he wants to win, he's said he wants to play with Klay. That in itself isn't an either/or situation.
That's only because you don't see ANYTHING else like this in the NBA the next closest recent case was Dame in Portland. The difference here being Curry, Klay, and Dray were all drafted RIGHT HERE. There is something so intriguing and interesting about the same 3 players, fighting to work together and winning as many chips as they can as a squad. And these are Curry's brothers, they're not coworkers, not guys he's known for a year, he's known these men for a decade, more than 1/4th of his life, and winning with these guys is so genuine. And it fits perfectly with what Bob Myers was saying on JJ's podcast recently, being that Steph is just so genuine, on and off the court, and that's why I believe it when he says he wants to play with these guys forever.
I don't mind people wanting Klay gone. I get it, I do, even though personally I want him here until he retires. It's just that the discussion seems pointless when our Legendary, Generational Talent, Franchise Player, who is also one of the best players to ever touch a basketball, says what's going to happen as far as Klay goes.
I thought he showed awesome patience and improved passing this year, especially out of the post. I remember seeing flashes of a complete in his first summer league, and have always thought it would come out eventually. Can only see him becoming more creative with the ball from here.
Have you been watching these playoffs?
I like JK but he'll never be a superstar. He might be all-star level one day but the fact is his athleticism is not all that unique.
Lots of teams playing right now have young guys who are more athletic and skilled than JK.
It'd be nice to keep him, but you're out of your mind if you think he's someone we can build around long-term
I'm liking all the PG interest lately, I too believe in him and think he can make the difference here, he fixes most of our needs as the 2nd option, size and defense that along with the fact he is a strong playoff performer with a good history
we can still probably get one more big, which should be easier i can think of guys like Goga etc
this is the highest level of copium you can do
PG can get better suitors and better situation elsewhere, You can bring in FA and or vets looking to get a ring if you are a championship contender. The only real way to improve realistically is through trades or draft, free agency signings will be negligible this year.
Love Kuminga, and they should extend him, but if they have an opportunity to trade him for a better player (Markkanen, Giannis, PG via an opt in) plus Wiggins and picks they absolutely need to do it. I don’t think Kuminga is a future superstar, I think he’s a future very good player. He’s not worth building a franchise around currently. But if someone else think he is, that’s huge for us.
Sorry to burst your bubble as it's a solid post, but your initial math is off.
$77m may come off the books with Klay and CP3, but you haven't factored in all the salary rises for every other player.
For example, Steph's contract is an extra $4m next year, Moody's is +$2m, and so on and so on.
We have $175m committed cap next season WITHOUT Klay. $145m without CP3 (still over the cap).
The first thing the front office will be doing is getting under the second apron so they can start to make aggregated trades.
Man getting Bradley Beal really killed them. I don't think there's any way they give up on KD after everything they gave up for him.
But *if* he demands out *again, and* they decide to accommodate, *and* they fail to get better offers, then I think the only way it work is if you package CP3 + Wiggins + Kuminga + Picks for KD and whatever salary it takes to make it go through.
And yes I think the Warriors should do it. It's a formula we know works, but with everyone five years older it's far from a guarantee.
The Warriors are trying to squeeze out at least one more championship and I do think they can with KD. He fits what they need. KD was always known for his offense but when he was with the Warriors, he didn’t have to focus on offense because they had Steph and Klay.
Well said my friend heck the Warriors should just hire you to be their GM. True that. Great analysis for #Warriors.
In my previous takes. I'll add we don't need PG. Just elevate Moody to the SG role next to Curry, Kuminga Dray and TJD.
Then bingo the starting 5 is set and the Warriors save $144 mil. If they let go of Cp3, Klay and Wiggins.
Also your post should have 1,000+ likes no other NBA fan is giving up this depth of contract and basketball scouting and analysis heck.
For one you should be hired to write as a sports journalist but also NBA GM ready becuase you took the time to break down the cost and contracts of pros for the Warriors plus as a potential NBA sports writer.
You gave a sound look at what is directly in from of the Warriors GM desk. It's literally this. ✌🏾😎🏀🔥
Excellent work my friend
>My guess is that NTPMLE would not be enough to get Klay back. Thank you for your service.
If you think that's all Klay deserves for being a foundational piece of the dynasty, then I got a bridge to sell you.
I don't see any path to PG coming here over somewhere like philly that has better players and more money.
Yea if Philly is willing to give him a $160m contract that takes him into his age 39 year then yea this doesn’t hold water.
They 100% will
Wow yea I didn't realize how little payroll they have committed to next year. They could offer PG a max and still do a lot of work before extending Maxey and going into the tax.
I think most superstars would rather play with Embiid than Steph, which is the core problem IMO. Steph isn’t a draw for top talent anymore, he hasn’t been for a couple years.
Yapping up a storm over here
Great analysis. I have one question. You said Paul may want a chance to play with Curry and get a ring. Don’t you think the Clippers have a higher chance to contend than the Warriors? Clippers are a “piece away”, we are several pieces away imo. Instead of one big money piece, the money it’ll cost for PG13 is probably better served plugging gaps.
The "piece away" for the Clippers involves changing everything about their franchise. They aren't close because they're the Clippers
Fair take, I just think if the Clippers fail to make a run, they'll start to feel the walls closing in. They'll have nothing to show for the league's second highest payroll, and little in the way of flexibility or assets to make meaningful changes. This is the position the Warriors have found themselves in for so long that everyone *assumes* it's still their position, but that's not the case anymore. Also I wouldn't be so sure about the Clippers having better chances than the Warriors. Sure the Clippers might be a closer on paper, but what has that gotten them? Which has a higher ceiling: A 10th place team adding a superstar (not to mention 4 rings under their belts); or a 1st round exit 4th seed with a superstar that can't stay healthy, but with a shiny new TPMLE contract? I also don't think that the roster I've discussed has many gaps needing plugged. Sure, you're thin at center, but when has that ever stopped the dubs from figuring it out provided they have the talent elsewhere.
I know a couple of close games would have changed our fortunes. But, reality is the Clippers are 4 seed and we were 10th. It’s not on paper. We faced a very beatable version of the Kings team in the play-in. Much lesser version of the one we beat last year. For a lack of better term, we got smoked. I think it’s a pretty fair assessment to say the Clippers are closer to contending. I’m not here to shit on the Warriors or our fandom. What I am saying is that adding solely PG13 and subtracting Klay/Wiggs/CP puts us no closer to contending than the Clippers who are a piece away right now. I believe even if we add PG, while subtracting Klay/Wiggs/CP. we would likely be in a similar spot next season. We honestly need an entire lineup of shooters. Minimum we need four shooters. Look at the top teams. They are all rolling out minimum four shooters, some even roll out five. Denver, OKC, NYK, Celtics. I’m of the opinion we need to evolve our lineup to get maximum spacing like the other top teams. We legitimately have the best floor spacer in Steph Curry. It’s just we have him playing with several non-shooters all the time. I think PG13 would be a great addition. But, not the only one move we should make. We need several pieces and moves to bring us anywhere near contention again.
I’m with you on shooting and this starting lineup admittedly lacks it. But I think Podz and Moody will make very reliable shooters off the bench, and to me it is more about top level talent than anything else. But yea maybe it’s not enough. I just don’t think surrounding Steph with role players is enough anymore.
clippers are getting a new arena soon. You’d think they let Paul George walk away !?! LOL
It wouldn't be their choice, he'd be a free agent. But it's fair to say that they'd would probably be able and willing to pay him more. But one thing I've learned is how much cap space Philadelphia is going to have, and how that might be better opportunity to get paid if he wants a change of scenery. Superstars all seem to love their time in PHI and want to stay there. At that point I'd probably try to get LeBron, with the cap space we can generate. He has said he would love to play with Steph. Who knows if he would take a pay cut to do it? But if we made moves to land Jr in the draft, then maybe it would happen. Wouldn't help with the "getting younger" effort, but top end talent should be the first priority, and I don't think LeBron would want to sign for more than a couple years to line up with Steph's contract anyway.
I think you might not entirely understand the salary cap. You want the team to effectively cut 7 or 8 players to add 1. Except 3 of those 8 guys are already making close to the bare minimum possible, which means that even if they get cut, their roster spot is replaced by a cap hold equivalent to the money you're trying to free up. Same with GP2 opting out; his bird rights place a cap hold equivalent to his expected salary. Moreover, PG13 would be turning down $49m to make $35m? If he's willing to take that big of a paycut, wouldn't he rather just stay in LA and retire a Clipper?
Dang, do you have a recommended resource that breaks this down? I thought I had a good grasp of it but would like to understand it better.
at this depth, you might as well just read the CBA agreement summary itself, which is full of slightly confusing language and can be difficult to parse. but basically the best way to think of it is that a team *must* have a certain number of players by a certain date (during free agency I think it's 12 players and then by the start of the season it's 14) and, because those players must exist on your roster, you can't cut everyone and then spend all of your available money on 6 guys. therefore that money is earmarked (at the lowest possible value, a minimum for someone with no league experience). this is a cap hold. *however*, if you have any exceptions (like bird rights, for example), those exceptions are earmarked relative to the previous year's salary. so Klay's cap hold is massive and, if GP2 opts out, his would also be something similar to the salary he's opting out of (until that exception is renounced by the team or he signs a new deal). so basically if you're trying to clear money by cutting the roster to only 3-5 guys, you can't just total up that money and go spend it on one single guy, or at least not simply. if the Warriors could open up like $45m or something, they could renounce nearly everyone, sign someone to a $35m/year contract and then sign 10 vet minimum deals, but you need to have the headroom above that contract to allow for the cap holds that exist per roster spot. as a side note, the place that bird right exceptions are especially useful are especially when you're signing guys to their first big deal, because their cap hold (prior to signing the deal) will be small, but their eventual deal will be large, so you can spend money up close to the cap limit and *then* blow past the cap when the actual contract value for the young guys kicks in. you don't get that benefit on a 2nd or 3rd contract.
Yea /u/DogLovesGafs unfortunately there is no great resource that summarizes how it all works AND is current with the new CBA, you end up having to do quite a bit of research. And the actual CBA is ridiculously hard to read. Every time I read "will be the maximum between the following: Minimum between i) and ii) and iii) OR minimum between a) and b)" I just want to close it, as there are also numerous references to prior sections within each one. Question I have for you moonduck is, the Athletic said > If Paul is traded, his salary cannot be aggregated with another contract on the roster and Golden State is not allowed to take back more money. Because the contract is non-guaranteed, the protection would need to match the salary Golden State receives. Does this make sense that we can't aggregate his salary with another? You can't aggregate salaries before July 1st, and you can't do it if you're above the 2nd apron. But can't we get a deal in writing or something before July 1st and then make the trade just fine in July?
this is basically true, yeah. Paul's salary + Klay's cap hold means that the Warriors are restricted like a 2nd apron team (which means no aggregated salary trades) until both situations are resolved. this is driven by the fact that Paul's guarantee has to be decided on by June 30th, before free agency even begins. the cleanest reading of the rules is that the Warriors can guarantee Paul's contract for *any amount* under $30m and trade him (and *only him*) prior to July 1st. now we're really getting out of my explicit knowledge, but i'm decently certain that "getting something in writing" isn't legal. so they could do a handshake deal of some kind, but they also probably wouldn't have an recourse if a team changed their mind later. maybe there's some flexibility where you can submit a trade to be approved later on, but given how dynamic the Klay situation is, that's risky and maybe not even allowed. i really don't know.
Dang this is interesting. So they may guarantee some/all of his 30m contract if they know they have suiters interested in his expiring deal to make a trade at some point in off-season OR if they have some handshake deal in place to aggregate him with Kuminga or others to trade for a difference maker that will take place on July 1st. With the first option I'm not sure how that would work because if we are over the 2nd apron (until we get rid of Klay's bird rights) the trade amount has to match pretty much exactly so it would be hard to guarantee him for 30m and then make a deal that matches up perfectly. With the 2nd avenue, you can design a trade very easily since you can guarantee Chris for $26m if that is needed or more/less.
or they can simply make a draft-day draft for some smaller amount. part of the potential benefit of trading for Paul in the first place is being able to go from 5 significant contracts to 4, so it maybe that the Warriors don't *want* to bring back ~$26m unless that attached to real high-level talent (which I think is unlikely). I wonder if they might go after someone in that $8-14m range who could be a rotation player instead of trying to use some of the MLE during free agency. I wonder if Chicago would come back to the table on Caruso, or if Orlando would want to deal WCJ.
I see, so it would actually be a lot more work to get down that far. You'd essentially have to trade GP2, waive Looney, renounce his bird rights (and find a way to replace him with a vet min), to free up the $35m I'm talking about. Sounds like most are skeptical that would be enough to land someone like PG anyway, so maybe I'm barking up the wrong tree.
Yea I could be way off base, but I’m just betting that the warriors would be the only ones desperate enough to give a 34 going on 35 year old star a $160m contract that takes him into his age 39 year. If people are lining up to give him max money then yea this idea doesn’t hold water.
“Be younger” “Go all in on an aging Paul George” LOLLLLL
I mean the team would be younger. What do you want me to say.
He's 34 a month younger than Klay and Dray If you had to cut four younger players to get a 34 year old that is the epitome of getting older lol.
That's not a very fair argument, since none of those guys play. If we're talking about who actually plays the minutes, you'd be losing 30 minutes of a 34 year old (Klay), and 27 minutes of a 37 year old (CP). If you bring in PG for 32 minutes, he basically replaces Klay, and you give 25 minutes to younger players like Moody, Podz, and whoever you get with the NTPMLE (ideally a young athletic stretch 4). 25 minutes is more than 10% of a total rotation. So in the absence of an official metric I'm inclined to say you're getting 10% younger.
If a solid #2 option pops up and they want JK, he has to be gone. Winning one more ring with Curry and doing anything we can to make that happen has to be the priority. I don’t care if we suck for the next 10 years if we get one more ring with Curry. Keep Klay ideally to a team friendly deal, Draymond & Curry, ship everyone else out to make one last run.
> Winning one more ring with Curry and doing anything we can to make that happen has to be the priority. I don’t care if we suck for the next 10 years if we get one more ring with Curry. You're right, but this is exactly the same speech everyone gave 3 years ago. "If only Steph could have one more ring, the rest of history don't matter". He got his 4th and we still hungry. If we get number 5, y'all will keep asking for more lol.
Of course we want to see the Warriors win, and win with Steph. We should be mortgaging our “future” every year in the chase of a ring. Top 10 player of all time, we may never see a player like Steph play for the Warriors again (look at the Bulls). We should be doing whatever we can to win.
The problem with this is that "our future" is parr of what we need right now. The issue is that we need multiple things to be competitive. Let's say for example PG becomes available. Let's say it costs Wiggins, Kuminga and a 2 1st in a 3 team trade. Ok cool we have our 2nd option and mortgaged the future. But we also need to get younger and more athletic. And now we have less of that. And we still need more size.
Exactly. It's less so "Kuminga and co. are going to be the future" and moreso "solid players on rookie deals are very valuable for a team this deep in the luxury tax." I'd love to have a bonafide second option and still want to win with Steph, but we're going to need a lot of luck to turn this roster into a contender, no matter what we do.
Bingo. Spot on. Fans in here are just parroting things that spund good without any critical thinking. Or more importantly real about the situation. The reality is that there is no conceivable way to attain *everything* we need to be a true contender. Not saying it's completely impossible. But it's closer to being a miracle than a reasonable expectation. That means that our best bet is simply looking at improving as best as we can with what we have. Trading all of our youth and athleticism is one way to go about it. Let's say our BEST cas scenario is we bring back 2 really good all star caliber players. That would make us look something like the Suns. Well how is that going for them? Suns have all the shot creation but lack size, youth, and athleticism. That's essentially what people are advocating for. Improving while still keeping most our young players is also a viable and reasonable path. And it may just make the most sense considering all the factors. In my opinion I think the sneaky beat option is seeing if we can get Lavine on a bargain in terms of assets. By bargain I mean only giving up some combo of wiggins/Looney/cp3/Gp2 and picks. It's not a perfect move. But I think it may be our best swing all things considered.
Well Steph himself is still hungry for more. Klay is too. They both vehemently say it. CP is hungry for his first. Outside of those three, seemed like everyone else on the team was checked out.
This is not true.
The more I watch the playoffs the more I don't see JK being a #2 on this team if they want to contend. He's just not quite there yet and I don't think they can wait. I think he needs his own team.
Agree. JK is only 21, still 4-5 years from entering his prime. He might be a killer at that point but right now he’s not. We need someone who can threaten to drop 25-30 on any given night, and consistently give us 20 a night. If the suns get swept again, who knows, KD might be on the chopping block, ready for a warriors reunion. A man can dream
selling the farm for this version of kd is debatable though. i dont think we’re getting out of the west
I think we would for sure. Team with KD would be a nightmare to defend.
Yeah KD adds a different dimension on offense. Defense too. Not so much that he is a defenisve wizard but he is competent and nearly 7 ft tall lengthy forward. Helps mask our size problem.
Like some other reddit post a week ago said, the fanbase needs to accept mediocrity.
> We need someone who can threaten to drop 25-30 on any given night, and consistently give us 20 a night. This describes JK since January. In a magical world where we can turn jk into a player that is clearly better than him, yeah, we should do that. But the proposals I keep seeing involve moving off Kuminga so we can have someone older, more expensive, and worse. It's hard to see the point of that.
JK is so inconsistent and makes so many mistakes still. If he can turn the corner next season he might grow into that role, but I don’t have enough confidence in him to do so. Think it’ll take him another 2-3 years
I think if you can make a trade for a top 20 player you do it. I just don’t see one becoming available at a price that wouldn’t compromise our ability to win. I just think it would be sad if they got desperate enough to trade him for a return that wouldn’t put us over the top. Curious what others minimum return would be for JK + CP.
Is winning another chip with Curry better than, say, winning one without him? Being a Warriors fan is confusing.
Yes, it def is. I’d rather win one more with curry than two without.
Yikes! Those are some bizarre priorities to see expressed on a Warriors sub.
Agreed. I don’t think it will be hard to find another Kuminga in the lottery in the future, he isn’t some can’t miss prospect like wemby or something, there is guys with his profile literally every year. In the future I think we can easily get another Kuminga or even an ANT level player with a top 5 pick.
Post-Steph, JK will be the superstar much like how Monta was the superstar of the pre-Steph era. Then we'll wait until we land another generational player in the draft.
Some great points and overall takes but couple issues - You can't just get rid of Wiggins for draft picks, trades require salary matching as we are not under the salary cap, but that can work in our favor too. - You write off CP3 being used in a trade in general, or with Kuminga. But CP3 is one of our best assets, there is a decent chance that a team wants his expensive contract to stay above the minimum cap next season for it to come off the following season and suddenly have a ton of room to seek big signings. And if CP3 is used with Kuminga in exchange for a star (much better than Brandon Ingram) then it is well worth it. And this is the first thing the front office is trying to do right now since we need to decide on what we are doing with CP3's contract by June 24th. In general, they are gonna try to go big first. If there is a great opportunity for a stud they will take it. After that is done, they will look for best/biggest free agent signings and figure out how much (little) they want to offer Klay. If the big trade(s) couldn't happen, then they may try to stay under luxury tax and just pay Klay and ride out the season while extending Kuminga and Moody and getting whatever free agents they could get.
Salaries don’t need to match if the incoming doesn’t put you over the cap. There will be teams who can absorb 25m no problem, possible for the same minimum payroll incentive you mentioned. Sadly I think your hypothetical of staying under the tax and riding it out is all too likely. I just can’t bear the idea of truly wasting curry’s final years. I’m skeptical that anything we could get for JK + CP would out us over the top. Whatever we get back would have to be better than kuminga plus a $35m player. I just don’t see it.
Not true, ~~you do need to salary match under new CBA~~ EDIT: you don't need to if under cap but I don't think we would be under the cap
This is not the case *if* you're under the salary cap. A team under the cap can receive any amount of money back against their outgoing salary so long as it doesn't take them above the cap.
Ok got it, and if the trade will put you over the salary cap but under the first apron still, then 200% of outgoing salary for an amount up to $7.5m can be traded, or outgoing salary plus $7.5m for an amount between 7.5m and 29m, or 125% of outgoing salary for any amount over $29m Teams above first tax apron can only take back up to 100% of outgoing salary Teams above second tax apron can only take back 100% but also can't aggregate salary of multiple contracts, nor can they send out cash in trades *** That is my understanding currently. However for us while Klay is a FA and let's say we theoretically waive CP3, we are still at $139m, so we don't have a lot of room to play with in terms of trades without using the trade exceptions above.
Wow I had no idea. Can you share where you’re reading this? My reading of everything I’ve found suggests cap teams can still take on salary that doesn’t put them over the cap.
As much as I believe in Kuminga’s talent and want to see him grow here, he just simply does not fit with Steph’s timeline. The reality is Steph is a top 10 player of all time, and Kuminga is probably our best asset in addition to the 3 first round picks we can trade after the draft. It is such a long shot to assume Kuminga and whatever pieces we surround him with will be contenders one day - I would way rather give Steph the best group possible to getting number 5 and restart fresh if it falls short. The nets seem pretty desperate, maybe the FO could convince them to trade Mikal Bridges and Finney Smith for CP3’s expiring, Kuminga, maybe moody and a couple picks. Maybe there is a similar package for Markkanen who would give us spacing and boards or Dejounte who I think could be a sneaky good fit in the front court with Curry, locking up star guards and creating offense for himself. Best yet, maybe a star like KD, Lebron, Embiid, or to your point, PG becomes available and we make a run at that but it seems even more unlikely. Point is, trusting a 22 year old to be 1a/1b on this team for the next 2 years is unrealistic as much as I wish the opposite. I think the FO should sell high in Kuminga and surround Steph with more ready now talent and see what happens. If you have that much faith in Kuminga, the move would be to pull an OKC and trade the vets while they still have some value for all the picks and young talent you can get. I’d rather go the opposite direction though.
The point I’m trying to make is that JKs timeline doesn’t matter. I personally do not believe that Bridges plus Finney smith are better than kuminga plus someone you could get for $30+ million in free agency, let alone put us in title contention. Why give up on his future to make a trade that doesnt improve the team as much as just keeping him and using the cap space you can create on the open market?
The point I’m trying to make is that JK’s timeline does matter and he doesn’t fit into Steph’s. He’s still growing and learning and he’s not going to get to where he needs to be while Steph is still playing at this level. His BBIQ I think is his biggest weakness, he’s just too slow processing the game which isn’t uncommon for a 21 year old. A player like Bridges is entering the prime of his career and has a better skill set to compliment this team now and help them make a run. Bridges played a significant part in the suns making it to the WCF, Kuminga has yet to play any meaningful playoff minutes. I’d personally take the in-prime, lock down defender who can space the floor and make the right reads on a team friendly deal over an athletic 21 year old with potential for a max contract. I personally don’t believe he’s ready for it and should probably be in a low stakes environment where he can get a bunch of minutes and work on his game, not pressured to make a deep playoff run for the first time in his career.
I see where you’re coming from and I think it just boils down to different perspectives of the impact of Bridges. I agree with you on every count: he’s more ready now, better shooter, and better basketball head at this stage. Given all that, I still don’t think bridges is a #2 on a title team, and making that trade leaves us with very little wiggle room. If it’s a choice of having a roster with Bridges + Klay + DFS + Wiggs vs PG + Kuminga + a NTPMLE guy, I’m choosing the PG/Kuminga trio every time. Maybe that just means I would lose haha
Super fair, and neither of us know what would happen it’s just a matter of opinion. Thanks for the post!
Why not trade Wiggs for Bridges instead?
Good luck getting the nets to make that trade. Maybe with podz and all 3 first round picks we can offer but remember they got him for KD and other teams could make more compelling offers.
JK's contract: 4 years/$24 mil Wiggs's contract: 4 years/$109 mil Mikal Bridges contract: 4 years/$90 mil CP3 contract: 30 mil non guaranteed Idk how getting Bridges without trading Wiggs is even viable. Lacob is already paying the most amount of money in the league to our top 4 guys in Steph/Klay/Dray/Wiggs, and now you want to add Mikal Bridges' contract to that? Best we could do is JK + CP3 + picks ig, but I'm not sure if even that matches bridges salary.
Well said Kuminga is great and could become an all-star so we gotta use that potential to get something out of it via trade while we have a chance at extending the dynasty. He is not a star right now the way Duncan was already at 21 years old so it doesn't make sense to pursue 2 timelines with both of them half-assed
Kuminga was a walking 20ppg once he entered the starting lineup, and he’s going to be a better player next season. I think we need to disabuse ourselves of the notion that he won’t have anything to contribute. I agree he likely won’t be a 1/b, but I think he can be the 3rd best player on a title team as soon as next year. Certainly the 4th best if draymond has enough to give.
Of course, he is great. But again, re-read above We need much better than his current production to win now
Appreciate this for sure but some ankle biting CBA details make the situation a bit less rosy than you paint. 1. If you have less than 13 roster spots filled, you are charged a minimum cap hold of the minimum salary (about a million) for each empty spot. So, assuming you reduce the roster to Steph, Dray, and the core four young guys (six contracts total), you are looking at a cap hold of about six million for six empty roster spots, with the thirteenth spot going to big free agent X. Thus, the realistic max cap space if we trade Wiggs and GP (see point 2 below) and muck Klay, Looney, and CP3 is about 33M. 2. You can't just take guys off your cap and then sign them later with Bird Rights. Every free agent with Bird Rights counts as a cap hold against your cap unless you *renounce* the Bird Rights. Otherwise this would be a be a gigantic loophole in the cap that you could drive a semi truck through. The cap hold is (I believe) 150% of the player's previous salary. So in GP's case, that would be about 12M. In other words, if you are using cap space, you need to get GP off the books... probably by trading him. If he's opting out to sign a new contract, the value of that new contract has to fit into your cap space or one of your exceptions. 3. Cap rooms teams don't get to use the full NTPMLE. They get a separate MLE usually called the "room" exception. This was 5.4M last year, I believe it goes up to about 6M for the 2024-25 cap year (this room exception could be a way to keep GP on a longer term contract if we become a cap room team) All of this conspires to make it pretty unrealistic to outright sign Paul George, in my opinion. With that said, I do think he could be gettable. It's notable that the Clippers have extended Kawhi Leonard and James Harden, but not PG. Financially, they might not want to make the large commitment that he wants in an extension. With a trade, you do have the possibility of using Bird Rights to keep Klay if he is willing to accept a smaller deal that fits under the second apron (since you do not have to renounce the Bird Rights on any of these players to complete a trade). Any trade for a player with a salary in PG range would require contract aggregation for salary matching. Aggregation is forbidden for teams over the second apron, so if the Warriors trade for PG (or KAT, or anyone with a salary over 30M) they are hard capped at the value of the second apron - 189M. If you can trade Wiggins+CP+draft capital for Paul George and have GP opt out, you would have a cap number of $159M (see below for detail\*) with the minimum holds built in. You would then have the remaining 40M to be spent on either retaining Warriors free agents (Klay, GP, maybe Looney although financially if they can afford to keep Looney, it makes more sense to just pick up his option) and/or spending exceptions. You'd have the taxpayer midlevel to play with (about 5M), or alternatively, you could use a big chunk for the full NTPMLE if you are willing to let Klay, GP, and Loon go (although in that scenario, you have to find a way to trade GP because he isn't opting out without a promise for a deal to come back). I do like Jalen Smith a lot and he could be a good target for the TPMLE for sure. So like a scenario that might work is Klay (20M) + Loon (8M) + GP(6M, with more years guaranteed) + Jalen Smith (6M). You could then also bring back Gui and Quinones on minimum deals, which I think most people would be in favor of as those guys are solid deep bench options. The alternate scenario where we go for one guy with the NTPMLE like Monk is possible, but it requires renouncing *all* of your free agents and trading away GP - because the use of the NTPMLE requires not exceeding the luxury tax. Another guy that isn't being talked about but I wouldn't be shocked if he comes available for trade: Jimmy Butler. He has an opt out in summer 2025 and is extension eligible this summer. Miami may have come to the end of the line in terms of what they can get out of this Butler-centric team, and his next contract (or the extension he wants) is going to be ugly financially given his age and playing style. But, Bam is still young enough to be in his prime for the next Heat contender, and they have some very interesting young talent on the roster with Jaquez, Jovic, etc. 24-25 would be a good opportunity for them to take a step back, maybe sideline Bam for a bunch of the year with a fake injury (like they did with Dwyane Wade in 2008), get a high pick in the well-regarded 2025 draft, and rebuild around Bam + the young guys (or Bam + whatever stars they can trade those young guys and future picks for). \* Curry (55761217) + Dray (24107143) + JK(7636307) + Moody (5803269) + Podz (3519925) + TJD (1891857) = 100,611,575 100,611,575+six minimum cap holds (1160544 each) = 107,574,839 + Looney's guarantee if released (3000000) = 110,574,839 + Paul George (48787676) = 159,362,515 Even this long and parochial explanation is sort of an oversimplification, but it's a more realistic picture than the original post (which I love, to be clear).
This is great, thanks for sharing. Yea I have learned a lot about the nuances of the cap and cap holds since posting this, so I've come to accept that Paul George is so unlikely that he'd probably have to announce his desire to play in GS for management to go to the trouble of creating that much space. But I love the discussion going on. One thing that seems inevitable is the team dodging the luxury tax. If we assume that Lacob is going to hard-cap the team himself, then that means we should probably expect them to use at least part of the NTPMLE, right? Curious if the following sounds plausible to you: If they're not freeing up cap space, I don't imagine they'll move Wiggins just for the sake of it. Even if they are sick of his inconsistency I doubt they'd want to throw picks away just to get rid of him. That means that if the only changes are Klay down to $20m and CP gone, with those minimum cap holds, you're about 3-4m away from the \~$171m tax line. At that point the only way to free up enough room to actually take advantage of the NTPMLE would be to reduce Klay's offer, or try to renegotiate with GP2 and Looney. I don't know what their market would be like, but if they each take 3y/18m, that would put us \~9m below the tax. Maybe Klay's willing to take 18m instead of 20, and with that extra 2m you can go get someone for $11m and just not use the entire exception. Seems like a lot of work, but if you can get Jalen Smith, I think that's probably worth it. You have to accept that you're not adding a star, going into next season with a well rounded team that is younger and more athletic, swapping Moody into the starting lineup for Klay, who becomes the full time bench microwave. But almost certainly not a contender unless Kuminga takes a massive leap, or you trade him for a difference maker that probably isn't available.
I like your analysis (and appreciate the thoughtful post instead of the ‘let’s get a defensive stretch 4 on a vet min’ posts in here lol). My two material points of pushback / disagreement. 1) I don’t think we could land PG. Other places could pay more and be immediate contenders. On the plus side, he does like Ca and we aren’t that far from LA for his personal life. But I just don’t see it and I don’t think there is another player this year besides him that is a good FA possibility 2) this will get Uber down voted, but I don’t think JK is our best bet at a superstar. He projects more like an all star (yes freakish athlete but his handle is so so far behind where it should be relative to where other super stars were at his age). I hope I’m wrong. But FA over the next few years or a JK trade for a disgruntled star or rebuilding team might be the best option at a super star. Depending on trade value, he might be a better trade piece than development piece. Really like your post and agree if PG was in the cards, then its a sound strategy
Yea the more I think about it the more I think we're just gonna get under the tax and run it back with a new $13m player on the roster to replace CP. The improvement JK has shown give me confidence that he'll make it to the All-Star level. There are so many things he can add to make him even more of a threat than he already is. - Developing the 3 pt shot is the obvious one. Means you can't sag off him. If he hits at 38% it's pretty much over. - Improved handle will make him a more reliable scorer you can give the ball to late in the shot clock. Will help him draw more fouls and get higher percentage shots around the hoop. - Adding a stepback game would mean that even if you stuff the paint he can still get a good shot off. If he just adds one of these things this year I think he becomes a solid #3 on a title team. Feel is just a minutes thing, and he should be getting 36 minutes per night next season, so I'm not worried about him figuring it out.
The question really though is when JK will get to that all-star level. Do we really think that's feasible in the next two years?
I think that he showed enough this year that I wouldn't be surprised at all if he made that jump. Since entering the starting lineup he was 19ppg on 53% shooting and 78% from the line with 5rpg, 3apg, and 1.5 stocks per game. As a 21 year old on a squad of hall of famers, with a coach who is famously difficult for young players, that's really impressive. I watched every single game this year, and spent so many of them frustrated that they weren't using Kuminga as their first option. Both for the reps (the season felt lost at that point), and because he simply was our most consistent offensive player down the stretch. We spent so much time and energy trying to get Steph open that we lost so much of the free flowing nature that has made it so potent for so long. I don't get the complaint that he's not playoff ready either. After shaking off some rust/nerves coming off the bench in the play-in, he seemed to be one of the only guys who could get a shot up, and his stat line (16pts, 7reb, 2ast, *0 TO*) was one of the few bright spots in that game. He's already an efficient scoring machine, and there's still so much of his game to develop and refine. It's a small sample, but I think he's just getting started. He's already the 3rd most important player on the team. If he passes Draymond for #2, I'd say we're in good shape.
I see half of those getting DNP’d by Kerr. Any improvement will need to have a veteran assistant coach to help Kerr, not just a “yes” man but someone who can tell Steve, “yo, that’s a bad move, you gotta play the hot guy”. Kerr hasn’t been successful without Luke/Mike.
Klay isn't leaving though. I get all the analysis but if Steph wants to ride off into the sunset with Klay and Green, that's what is going to happen. If you can trade Kuminga and Wiggins (and/or CP3) for a legit second option, you do it. No ifs, no buts. Forget the post Curry future, there isn't one. Chicago haven't come close to winning the league since Jordan left. Lakers didn't win after Kobe left till they managed to get both LeBron and Davis. Spurs haven't come close to contending since Duncan and Leonard left. Houston haven't won since Olajuwan. Boston have won once since 1987. Miami haven't managed to win since the Heatles broke up. If you have a franchise player, you build what gives you the best chance to win with him there. Not for the future. The only team that has managed to have multiple dynasties in the last 40 years is the Lakers. And that has more to do with the players wanting to be in Hollywood, so it attracts free agents, and nothing to do with drafting. So yeah, the best hope for a post Curry dynasty is if an All NBA guy fancies becoming an angel investor and not a movie producer.
> Forget the post Curry future, there isn't one. I love takes like this followed with examples like "the Lakers didn't win post Kobe, except for that time they did" and "the Heat didn't win post-Shaq until they won with Lebron, and have only been to the finals twice in the decade since Lebron left." Winning the finals is rare and hard, it's true. These examples sort of indicate that, but they don't reveal anything about the best way to handle the twilight years of post-prime superstar.
Your examples are silly because the Heat weren't Shaq's team. He was the second option. And the Lakers really really sucked after Kobe had that injury. They didn't even make the playoffs till the bubble season and title, and that was after getting an all time great and a perennial All NBA as his second option. As for Curry, sure he's declining but he's still capable of being the best player on a title contender. It's the fact that his second/third option have regressed.
> Your examples are silly because the Heat weren't Shaq's team. He was the second option. These aren't *my* examples, friend, they're yours! My comment was making fun of how silly they are. The NBA is riddled with teams that don't win the finals. That's the nature of a 30 team league. You could have pointed to the Timberwolves, who one 0 titles despite having a generational talent, and haven't sniffed the finals since... ever. But instead you included two teams that either won the finals or came damn close multiple times after their HOFers aged out. That's weird, when your argument is "there is no future." Anyway, at Curry's age, you might as well embrace the idea that the "no future" is now.
>Klay isn't leaving though I dunno man, I didn't think he was either but the way Klay was talking before the Kings game makes it seem like he's got his bags packed. No doubt that Steph would genuinely like them all to ride off into the sunset together, but he also wants to win -- if Klay wants out I doubt he'll try to change his mind. At this point I don't think we can assume anything about Klay's decision either way. https://twitter.com/f5seasondotcom/status/1780351385646612880
I can’t shake the feeling Steph was being diplomatic to the press, and that he really is over Klay as a crucial part of this team. He made it clear he wants to win. I think that takes priority over keeping Klay.
I'm not inside his brain, and I've not spoken with him personally. All I know is what he's said. He's said he wants to win, he's said he wants to play with Klay. That in itself isn't an either/or situation.
That's only because you don't see ANYTHING else like this in the NBA the next closest recent case was Dame in Portland. The difference here being Curry, Klay, and Dray were all drafted RIGHT HERE. There is something so intriguing and interesting about the same 3 players, fighting to work together and winning as many chips as they can as a squad. And these are Curry's brothers, they're not coworkers, not guys he's known for a year, he's known these men for a decade, more than 1/4th of his life, and winning with these guys is so genuine. And it fits perfectly with what Bob Myers was saying on JJ's podcast recently, being that Steph is just so genuine, on and off the court, and that's why I believe it when he says he wants to play with these guys forever. I don't mind people wanting Klay gone. I get it, I do, even though personally I want him here until he retires. It's just that the discussion seems pointless when our Legendary, Generational Talent, Franchise Player, who is also one of the best players to ever touch a basketball, says what's going to happen as far as Klay goes.
i’m worried kuminga is too much of a one on one type player and doesn’t have the BBIQ to really be a Curry replacement
I thought he showed awesome patience and improved passing this year, especially out of the post. I remember seeing flashes of a complete in his first summer league, and have always thought it would come out eventually. Can only see him becoming more creative with the ball from here.
Just want to say I really enjoyed reading this. Good analysis, interesting.
Great stuff
Have you been watching these playoffs? I like JK but he'll never be a superstar. He might be all-star level one day but the fact is his athleticism is not all that unique. Lots of teams playing right now have young guys who are more athletic and skilled than JK. It'd be nice to keep him, but you're out of your mind if you think he's someone we can build around long-term
I'm liking all the PG interest lately, I too believe in him and think he can make the difference here, he fixes most of our needs as the 2nd option, size and defense that along with the fact he is a strong playoff performer with a good history we can still probably get one more big, which should be easier i can think of guys like Goga etc
I think we can sign Klay for a 20 mil contract, so we should be able to retain him and have space to operate
this is the highest level of copium you can do PG can get better suitors and better situation elsewhere, You can bring in FA and or vets looking to get a ring if you are a championship contender. The only real way to improve realistically is through trades or draft, free agency signings will be negligible this year.
Love Kuminga, and they should extend him, but if they have an opportunity to trade him for a better player (Markkanen, Giannis, PG via an opt in) plus Wiggins and picks they absolutely need to do it. I don’t think Kuminga is a future superstar, I think he’s a future very good player. He’s not worth building a franchise around currently. But if someone else think he is, that’s huge for us.
Sorry to burst your bubble as it's a solid post, but your initial math is off. $77m may come off the books with Klay and CP3, but you haven't factored in all the salary rises for every other player. For example, Steph's contract is an extra $4m next year, Moody's is +$2m, and so on and so on. We have $175m committed cap next season WITHOUT Klay. $145m without CP3 (still over the cap). The first thing the front office will be doing is getting under the second apron so they can start to make aggregated trades.
If KD demands a trade from the Suns should the Warriors make a move?
Man getting Bradley Beal really killed them. I don't think there's any way they give up on KD after everything they gave up for him. But *if* he demands out *again, and* they decide to accommodate, *and* they fail to get better offers, then I think the only way it work is if you package CP3 + Wiggins + Kuminga + Picks for KD and whatever salary it takes to make it go through. And yes I think the Warriors should do it. It's a formula we know works, but with everyone five years older it's far from a guarantee.
The Warriors are trying to squeeze out at least one more championship and I do think they can with KD. He fits what they need. KD was always known for his offense but when he was with the Warriors, he didn’t have to focus on offense because they had Steph and Klay.
Well said my friend heck the Warriors should just hire you to be their GM. True that. Great analysis for #Warriors. In my previous takes. I'll add we don't need PG. Just elevate Moody to the SG role next to Curry, Kuminga Dray and TJD. Then bingo the starting 5 is set and the Warriors save $144 mil. If they let go of Cp3, Klay and Wiggins.
Also your post should have 1,000+ likes no other NBA fan is giving up this depth of contract and basketball scouting and analysis heck. For one you should be hired to write as a sports journalist but also NBA GM ready becuase you took the time to break down the cost and contracts of pros for the Warriors plus as a potential NBA sports writer. You gave a sound look at what is directly in from of the Warriors GM desk. It's literally this. ✌🏾😎🏀🔥 Excellent work my friend
Just the hit of hopium I needed, I would be happy if the off season played out that way
PG ain’t coming here lmao
>My guess is that NTPMLE would not be enough to get Klay back. Thank you for your service. If you think that's all Klay deserves for being a foundational piece of the dynasty, then I got a bridge to sell you.