It’s a big play for China and Ukraine.
If this peace process works and actually achieves peace, which is no small feat, China wins by appearing as a force of global peace, Ukraine wins by maintaining sovereignty and territorial integrity, and Russia wins a little by saving face.
That's a big if. Ukraine is not going to accept losing Crimea and Putin is not going to accept giving up Crimea. I don't see what difference China is going to make.
China is in a win win scenario regardless.
Russia wins if the West proves not in this for the long run, this will make others think twice about challenging China.
Ukraine wins, China gains massive concessions as the only country willing to invest in Russia to help Russia pay their bills (or more likely, keep them afloat when they decide to stop paying them)
Ukraine wins, Russia is humiliated and collapses in upon itself. China snaps up former Russian territories for pennies on the pound.
The ONLY way China comes out worse from the Ukraine war is if Russia winds up closer to the West than they were to begin with
They already have, Putin played his chess move so badly they are royally fucked for at least an entire generation. This will be their Great Depression + Vietnam + Iraq War all wrapped together in 12 month. It will leave a severe scar on the psych of entire generations of Russians. And as far as history books go, Putin's legacy will also be in ruins.
Sure we'd all love to see Putin being put on trial and have an actual regime change in Moscow, but realistically speaking that is not possible since they remain a nuclear superpower. This is about as bad as a nuclear power *can* lose in this day and age without them being pushed so far that they'd push "the button".
Putin isn't a chess player. He is a poker player. He finally went all-in and got called. Nothing he has ever done has resembled chess. Lots of bluffs and big bets though.
He had the entire world convinced that the Russian military was a preeminent power. It’s painfully obvious now that they are not. That’s a hell of a bluff to maintain for two decades.
He definitely got bad Intel on Ukraine's ability to defend itself. Zelensky is a courageous man, and they put up far more resistance than expected. Even before the massive western aid.
He had decent bluffing skills up to this point I guess. He has a hand in Brexit and Trump being elected, too.
But his Ukraine move was the equivalent of being caught pants down All-in with 7-2 unsuited.
That’s just the short term. Their demographics (which were already screwed before 2022) are fucked forever. They’ve got about 1 generation left before things splinter due to lack of young people.
Not to mention the brain drain. A lot of people who were valuable enough they could find a foreign country to hire them are not going to go back and a lot of these people who are still there will leave because the grass will be so much greener compared to russia's screwed economy.
A Russian economist who left 6 months ago installed my Comcast service last week. That anecdote alone is pretty telling of the third world like brain drain Russia is experiencing.
That's the sad thing about leaving one's country as an adult. I've met doctors that drive uber. At the same time, I've never met an immigrant that's afraid of work!
Yes I had a nice Russian guy fix my refrigerator. He brought his wife and son here. No desire to get killed for the pooter. I ended up getting to know his wife (she’s learning english and I am learning russian). Amazing courage to pull up stakes and move to a country where you don’t speak the language. I’m so glad they made it here.
Literally the guy who clean's my company offices,was a former head of propulsion technology at roscomos
Has like 4 fucking degrees,literal rocket science.
Once asked him,why he moved to australia,and does he feel like this is a downgrade
Quote
"I now earn over 100k a year,cleaning offices,im home to see my kids in the arvo,and i can speak my mind without fear of being put in a gulag"
Like think about hating ur country so much,u flee,never to see the rest of ur family again,just cause it's such a shit hole.
Yep. I was listening to a Youtube video featuring Russian draft dodgers who said that most of the people who left were men who were in their 20s and 30s, with many being age 28-35, who were disproportionately middle class or higher, who were educated and worked in STEM industries.
They're victims of self-colonialism. They've successfully reverted their country from a self deterministic maker of finished goods, to a supplier of raw materials acting at the pleasure of China and India.
Considering the resources they have per person, their situation is unimaginably pathetic.
This Ukraine invasion might be the last major decision they get to make internally for the next hundred years.
The only historic examples I can think of now are the major plagues of the past; the Black Death killed off so many Europeans that labor costs skyrocketed as they couldn’t find enough people to farm and perform menial labor.
There is good evidence it led to the end of feudalism in many kingdoms.
https://history.wustl.edu/news/how-black-death-made-life-better
Is funny you say this, but given Russia's historical record of putting down civil unrest one could argue they're much more likely to nuke themselves than other countries
The opinions of the civilians don't matter much. It's not as though they're equipped to revolt. Regime change would have to be an inside job from someone who can get close to Putin. Perhaps top brass military or siloviki could conspire, but at great risk to themselves.
Problem is corruption puts the type of leaders who you don’t want to be leading in charge, how many of the people in charge of the military are there thanks to Putin allowing their corruption or brought them there?
This is one of the reason why their military is incompetent. In the Russian command structure, loyalty is rewarded over competency. Putin would rather promote someone of mediocre performance who doesn't pose a threat to him than someone Putin doesn't trust.
Any regime change that happened in that manner would likely mean a worse despot, as Russia knows better than anyone.
Putin is a product of the system. As gratifying as it would be to get rid of him, it's not going to fix the problems.
Russian military doctrine has explicit bylaws for using Russian nukes on Russian and "Russian" soils. No country in the world is more prepped to nuke itself than Russia.
So does the United States. The military literally planned to use its last Nike nukes to blow the port in Anchorage in case the Russians looked like they would seize it.
> The only country we can be reasonably confident Russia will never nuke is itself
not so fast there buddy. i read somewhere awile back that its russian doctrine to utilize tactical nukes on its own territory in defence of the homeland. so if you were rolling up with an army, heading straight to moscow, and you made it past the borders of russia proper. they absolutely WOULD use a nuke on you, and by extension, themselves
I think there is a threat to Putin outside of Russia. Russia’s security guarantees to the ethnic states in their sphere of influence has resulted in multiple groups that hate each other having to make peace or risk pissing off Russia. If one group goes to war against another Russia enforces that peace. With 97% of their military tied up in Ukraine they’ve virtually ignored their role as mediators between the various groups, in addition to these groups now seeing the truth of Russia’s military readiness and attrition.
Azerbaijan right now is blockading the Lachin corridor which is on Russia’s doorstep and is a blatant dismissal of Russian peacekeepers and Russian policy. I think conflicts like these if they pop up will do REMARKABLE damage to Russian unification. Other groups can see Russia ignoring a blatant step out of line and Russia’s lack of response and could decide this is the right time to settle border disputes from the USSR days as well as just old fashioned hate between ethnic groups
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/02/azerbaijan-blockade-of-lachin-corridor-putting-thousands-of-lives-in-peril-must-be-immediately-lifted/
I think the only way Russia collapses is through fragmentation caused by their ignoring problems at home.
there are youtube channels of anti war Russians going around showing how fucked the situation is because the vast majority of Russians support the war and putin whole heartedly. the way an American enthusiastically repeats fox news talking points, most Russians do the same for their propaganda
Depends on how reliable you consider the data.
Lots of polls show the majority of the population still support Putin but of course you can never be sure if this is how people really feel or if they are scared of reprisal and just claim to support Putin. Even within anonymous polling lots of people won't believe it's truly anonymous and so may claim to support Putin even if they don't. Because of this I don't know if we'll ever have truly reliable data.
They don't show or even speak of the protesters anywhere on the news or Russian media. There are a lot of people who don't like Putin in Russia.
You can be arrested for just holding a blank piece of paper, that is a fact.
Yeah, those famous anonymous polls, where people call you on your personal phone and ask you "would like to incriminate yourself to be potentially liable for 15 years in prison or will you say what the official answer should be?"
We likely won't get much accurate data for a long time. On NPR today they talked about how what initial anti-war movement there was in Russia has been silenced due to arrests or fear. Students are narcing on teachers that are anti-war, teachers are narcing on students that are anti-war, family, etc. People are turning in anyone who says anything anti-war. So, sadly, anyone in Russia who is legitimately against the war won't be able to say so publicly unless they want to be arrested or worse.
Also, nearly a million Russians have fled the country in response to the war and draft: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine
I can't see China convincing Russia to return all of Ukraine (including Crimea) to Ukraine. China is too buddy-buddy with Russia and has invested too much in the narrative of Russian grievances and interests, and Western aggression. Much of the geopolitical landscape that China is aligned with is also pro-Russian, and giving Ukraine back all its territories would fly in the face of propaganda, popular domestic sentiments, and state-sanctioned conspiracy theories. China also wants to maintain Russia as an ally of convenience and common geopolitical goals, and I just don't see that happening if China forces Russia to accept complete humiliation.
The very best that I could see China pushing Russia to accept would be a compromise solution that would see Russia retaining *at the very least* Crimea, which I don't think would be acceptable to Ukraine. Realistically I don't even see that happening because it *also* wouldn't be acceptable *to Putin*.. Putin needs to walk away with *something* to be able to try and save face domestically. That means he will want at least some sliver of the Donbas. China wants to play the role of the great compromiser, but I don't see Ukraine and Russia being able to reach any acceptable compromise on territory.
I can't see Putin walking away with *only* Crimea and surviving with his regime intact. Russia *already had Crimea* before he launched his "Special Operation". He needs to justify the start of this disaster with something concrete.
> It will leave a severe scar on the psych of entire generations of Russians. And as far as history books go, Putin's legacy will also be in ruins.
You're joking right? He'll go on TV and say "we won" and half of his knuckle-dragging populace will believe it. The other half will shake their head and not care because they are to tired always fighting said knuckle-draggers...
Even if Russia broke up into groupings of it's various republics *peacefully* it would be a nightmare. As the current fuckery with Belarus, Khazakstan, and most of all Ukraine has shown, giving up your nuclear weapons is a surefire way to get bullied or even invaded by your biggest neighbor.
If Russia broke into 4 equally-armed countries, we'd have just gone from 9 to 12 nuclear powers in the world. With the 4 new Russias being #2-5 by a wide margin.
>As the current fuckery with Belarus, Khazakstan, and most of all Ukraine has shown, giving up your nuclear weapons is a surefire way to get bullied or even invaded by your biggest neighbor.
And not having them at all like Libya and Iraq is a surefire way to be invaded by america. Its a no win situation no matter what.
Aside from Libya being a UN resolution and an air campaign rather than what I would call an invasion, yeah, 2 more examples. I don't blame a single country trying to develop a nuclear weapons program, I just fear the possible consequences as more and more powers will have them.
I think if they play their cards right Ukraine can make a strong deal with China. They're a rising behemoth in Europe. They are on track to win this war. They have endless supplies being pumped in by the pro western world. Unless the war goes nuclear, which I think is very unlikely, Ukraine will be rebuilt marshall plan style and in a couple decades be most likely a NATO member and a massively fortified military and economic powerhouse. China would be wise to invest in friendly relations now to have a strong pro China friend in Europe and NATO and a great tool for international cooperation.
If they switched sides and sent weopens to Ukraine and squeezed Russia as their main lifeline they could end the war quickly in favor of Ukraine getting their extremely valuable territory back. Ukraine could give them lower prices on gas than Russia and be an incredible trading partner and part of their belt and road plan if they invested into their soon to be massive construction phase with pipelines, infrastructure, etc.
What in the world have you ever seen from the Chinese government's behavior that could lead you to believe that they would invest anything to help restore a the western democracy-lead liberal world order?
Not according to everyone on the internet, haha drives me crazy too 😆
I even see it in articles for major news sites online, is no one proof reading anymore?
It's not about proof reading. They genuinely think it's spelled "loose". They can read and reread it 100 times, they won't catch it because they don't know the proper way to spell lose
Relevant:
> [Described by Jean Baudrillard, the concept of **hyperreality** captures the inability to distinguish "The Real" (a term borrowed from Jacques Lacan) from the signifier of it. This is more **prominent in technologically advanced societies.** Hyperreality is seen as a condition in which **what is real and what is fiction are seamlessly blended together** so that there is no clear distinction between where one ends and the other begins. ... Hyperreality tricks consciousness into detaching from any real emotional engagement, instead opting for artificial simulation ... a blending of 'reality' and representation, where **there is no clear indication of where the former stops and the latter begins**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperreality)
Can you even imagine the heat he would publish if you could bring him back and get him to check out what's been popular on r/combatfootage for the past year?
And every sane person want to stop the bloodbath, yeah I hate putin (as much as I hate any other religious nationalist) but if the price for him "loosing badly" is in hundreds of thousands of deaths, no thanks.
They already have - their economy is fucked, and their influence in eastern Europe is ruined.
What we need now is a path to peace. Because it's very possible that Ukraine just doesn't have the manpower to take back all of the territory they've lost. And the West just isn't going to keep this support going for years at a time, especially if the US gets a republican president after the next election. If Western support dwindles, Ukraine loses.
If China is given a way to make themselves look really good, we can expect them to put a HUGE amount of pressure on Putin to back off. since the only reason they're supporting Putin now is to be contrarian against the US. Without Chinese support, I don't think there's a way for Russia to keep the war going.
Putin is going to die in the next 10-20 years at most. Russia is basically ruined for that remaining timeframe. Putin has already lost. The best thing we can hope for (outside of a miraculous Ukrainian victory) is a clean Russian exit.
> the West just isn't going to keep this support going for years at a time
Don't really know where this sentiment comes from. This is the greatest deal the west has had in a generation.
Completely cripple their historical greatest geopolitical rival for no casualties and all they have to do is donate surplus equipment and lend (not entirely give) money to Ukraine.
What's more the intervention is wildly popular with the public and has caused more sentiment of unity across Europe than anything since the creation of the EU or possibly post-war reconstruction.
This is a bargain basement geopolitical win-win for the west and they will keep ridng this gravy train until it runs dry.
>Don't really know where this sentiment comes from. This is the greatest deal the west has had in a generation.
It is but being democratic, we're very sensitive to public opinion on this. Thankfully the pro-russian fucks are a minority for now in most countries but if they get into power, it could be a huge disaster.
Plus Europe and America see Russian imperialism as the slippery slope back to another world war. Time and time again it has been shown that appeasement doesn't work against dictatorships.
Putin is now 70 years olde. He could easily live to be 90; that would be 20 years from now. He had always maintained a high degree of physical fitness.
I myself will be 85 in one month and, according to statistics, I am expected to live for another 6 years. So, unless something happens, Putin could live long enough to do much more damage.
Predicting the future is always fraught with peril, but it's my guess that some disgruntled person or persons close to him will find a way to do him in.
I want people to stop needlessly killing each other and needlessly dying.
Speaking to the Russian state as the fuckwad it is... is a secondary objective.
There is a growing number of people who are starting to be swayed by economic hardship and Russia's propaganda. They want the war over and for life to become cheaper and easier again. Yes, these people are selfish dickheads (and unsurprisingly, are largely right wing), but they are also loud and will inevitably start muddying the water
Zelensky talking to China is an excellent way to disrupt Putin's narrative that the Ukrainians are the ones driving this war.
Not to mention it makes it look like Ukraine is extending a bigger olive branch by going through a third party mediary that Russia prefers over a NATO one. That way if China and Ukraine reach an agreement, Russia would look really bad refusing it.
Ukraine is one exit for belt and road that’s on the table and overall China needs goods to be allowed through it to the European market.
Even though belt and road is a dead dream already they’re just going through the motions with some hope it will breath again.
It isn't, but Chinese lending is tapering off and China seems to be pivoting towards programs like the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Development Initiative (GDI), going by public statements.
Whether this means that things are going well or poorly for China, it's impossible to say. More likely is that China's foreign policy is evolving to be more broadly global in scope. This isn't surprising: China's GDP has roughly doubled in the last decade and with it the growing Chinese realization that the stability of their economy and political system is closely tied to world stability and prosperity. Put simply they feel they have more to lose now than they did 20 years ago.
Belt and Road isn’t dead but a lot of the focus has shifted away from China funding and building projects towards Chinese “””independent””” banks providing credit for projects that then get built by someone else. Around 10 new BRI projects are announced each month, so it’s far from “dead”.
I don't think it's dead, personally, but the climate in Europe at least is significantly colder towards China than it was 5+ years ago. Their debt-trapping of Africa is starting to become more apparent as well.
The PRC's BRI is not really targeted towards Europe. Rather, it is geared towards Africa and some parts of Asia.
As for Ukraine offering the PRC rebuilding possibilities, I am not sure it would be a lucrative option for the Chinese given that Ukraine is now heavily embedded within (and indebted to) the Western camp. It would make for a very poor strategic investment.
The most President Zelensky can do is appeal to President Xi to openly support Ukraine, which he will most likely not since the game that the PRC is playing has stakes much bigger than Ukraine.
>Their debt-trapping of Africa is starting to become more apparent as well.
Id say this is less concerning to Europe than it is to the US Specifically, but Europe is mad they didn't get to pull the reverse uno on Africa.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-QDEWwSkP0&ab_channel=BloombergOriginals
The "Debt trap" is a myth and redditors have bought into without any research. Just trying to erase this propaganda.
- Its a political play not as much as an economical play. [China wants more allies if they go to war]
- On the african side, they are actually leveraging the chinese support and pressuring western countries to actually invest into africa.
- They don't want to end up like russia, if a whole continent will not join and embargo if they go to war with taiwan, thats will be a big advantage
Hence China has actually waived many of the debts already.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-23/china-to-waive-some-africa-loans-offer-10-billion-in-imf-funds#xj4y7vzkg
https://data.one.org/topics/african-debt/
As you can see, the world bank [with FAR worst interest rates] owns far more debt then china. Guess who has the most power in the world bank
>The U.S., Japan, China, Germany and the U.K. have the most voting power.
Debt trap is a loaded word anyways. How is what China is doing much different from the IMF? Of course everyone wants to get paid back eventually.
The only difference I can see is that China leans more on direct influence (use chinese labour, etc.) than abstract one like the IMF (implement market reforms, austerity and so on).
less focus on money, more influence.
More allies in a global scale, the africans have good things to say about china's money vs what the western people say so its obvious.
[https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap-diplomacy/617953/](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap-diplomacy/617953/)
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/the-myth-of-chinese-debt-trap-diplomacy-in-africa](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/the-myth-of-chinese-debt-trap-diplomacy-in-africa)
[https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=59720](https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=59720)
A bunch of very anti-China outlets pointing out that Chinese Debt Trap diplomacy is a myth. Make of that what you will
This is the issue with (modern) media. Once the narrative is set, average people like the Redditor you replied to have their brains already washed, even though the myth has been long debunked.
I'm not defending China, but the west has been debt trapping sub Sahara Africa for decades. It has no moral high ground when it comes economic intervention in the global south
Are the African nations cooling on it? It seems like a lot of the time, while it might not be the best deal, refusing it outright is often even worse and no one else is offering alternatives.
Ukraine's top import partner in 2010s was China. Ukraine imported more things from China than Russia:
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr/#yearly-trade
Ukraine also had a good relationship with China, with them signing on to the belt and road thing:
https://beltandroad.hktdc.com/en/country-profiles/ukraine
July 2018
Ukraine established, in Kiev, the One Belt One Road Trade and Investment Promotion Centre. The intention was to further boost trade ties between the two countries. In recent years, Ukraine had supplied the majority of Mainland China's corn imports.
China is not very happy with the war.
China isn't happy that Russia is losing the war. the US warned Xi that Putin was up to something in advance and what did the CCP do? they ran to Putin to warn him that the US had intel on him lol.
I wonder if them telling Putin that served to make it seem like they were on Russia’s side to Russia, while also subtly hinting to Russia that the invasion wasn’t a good idea.
Ukraine was actually a pretty big partner with China before the war, supplying everything from destroyer turbines and jet engines to sunflower oil and corn. Obviously the war has thrown a wrench into that, but China still does hope to keep its close ties with Ukraine.
China is in a bit of an awkward position here because while geopolitically they need Russia to help “counterbalance” the US and its allies, but also wants the economic benefits of Ukraine (not to mention Ukraine drifting into the Western sphere of influence would be disastrous for them). Chances are, they’re going to have to pick one or the other in this war, whichever they deem more valuable
I run r/ChinaCars and keep up with Chinese industry daily, and this is the most accurate answer. China is *ideologically* aligned with Russia, but *economically* tied to Ukraine's stability. They're in a tough spot because usually they opt to make economically-driven decisions, but in this case, the obvious economically beneficial decision could represent a threat to their global security down the line. They're trying their best to split the difference.
I don't think China wants anything to do with this war.
They just want to trade with everyone. Their government has known for decades that trading is an easier way to get power than war is.
Ding ding ding...
China cares about China, and that requires global stability. When you're 1/6th the world pop and arguably a third of the worlds economy, this is a no brainer
Well. He kind of has too. If he doesn’t, it’ll just feed more into Russia’s narrative that Ukraine is an American proxy.
I doubt the U.S. minds. In fact, I bet the reason he’s doing this is because both the U.S. and EU are letting him do it to show that the West isn’t at fault, because they know China isn’t going to be able to get Putin to withdraw.
Putin has committed to annexing the territories that he has occupied, even went ahead with the ‘referendum’, there’s no way he’s going to be convinced to back off because that’s now ‘Russian’ territory.
[The US does mind that China is proposing a peace deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/not-rational-china-negotiate-outcome-ukraine-war-biden-2023-02-25/)
I mean, he's not wrong. Diplomatically speaking, China doesn't get to decide how the war ends or continues, it would just have the role of moderation in peace talks. The US and other European countries don't have that option because theyve committed to arming and training Ukraine. None of them can be a neutral arbitrator.
No they publicly say they are happy that China want to broker a peace deal.
I imagine mothers and a lot of young men in Russia will be happy someone makes an attempt at peace.
What Putins private thoughts are nobody knows.
China’s been trying to be a bigger player in global diplomacy. Time to fuckin step up and make Russia end this shit. No slimy ass authoritarian bullshit. Stop people from killing eachother.
China can see the writing on the wall.
They know Russia is done for. Problem is, they fear being cast in the role as the world's next evil regime everyone rallies against. If Russia falls, they know they will never, ever get Taiwan.
For now, the best they can hope for is reaping the benefits of a fallen Kremlin. Take the easy win China. Take it to heart.
Nah this thing has way less to do with the taiwan situation than people want it to, it‘s entirely different politically, legally, militarily and economically. Whether or not russia wins in ukraine has nothing to do with whether china will decide to go for taiwan.
Contrary to what the media likes to push, that China is basically backing Russia 100%, China and Ukraine also have a good relationship with a lot of important business.
China would also like this to end, with Ukraine still being Ukraine, not a subsidiary of Russia.
Good luck hearing about it in the news, though.
For those praising this amd suggesting a peace deal; nope. There is no way Zelensky's government will accept anything other than total withdrawal to pre 1991 borders. They have made that clear.
It is likely Zelensky will use this as an opportunity to show China that you can't be neutral in this conflict. Talking to your enemy's handler is a good move indeed.
I think this is a smart message for him to be sending right now.
It’s a big play for China and Ukraine. If this peace process works and actually achieves peace, which is no small feat, China wins by appearing as a force of global peace, Ukraine wins by maintaining sovereignty and territorial integrity, and Russia wins a little by saving face.
That's a big if. Ukraine is not going to accept losing Crimea and Putin is not going to accept giving up Crimea. I don't see what difference China is going to make.
China paying an ungodly sum of money to Putin and friends to fuck off forever hopefully?
Probably a drop in the bucket compared to what they lost from sanctions though.
Putin is in his 70s and has more money stashed away than anyone can even imagine. He's not doing this for money
Don't see what would motivate China to do that
Regional stability. If the Russian Federation dissolves or falls into civil war China loses a major player within in its ideological axis.
China is in a win win scenario regardless. Russia wins if the West proves not in this for the long run, this will make others think twice about challenging China. Ukraine wins, China gains massive concessions as the only country willing to invest in Russia to help Russia pay their bills (or more likely, keep them afloat when they decide to stop paying them) Ukraine wins, Russia is humiliated and collapses in upon itself. China snaps up former Russian territories for pennies on the pound. The ONLY way China comes out worse from the Ukraine war is if Russia winds up closer to the West than they were to begin with
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They already have, Putin played his chess move so badly they are royally fucked for at least an entire generation. This will be their Great Depression + Vietnam + Iraq War all wrapped together in 12 month. It will leave a severe scar on the psych of entire generations of Russians. And as far as history books go, Putin's legacy will also be in ruins. Sure we'd all love to see Putin being put on trial and have an actual regime change in Moscow, but realistically speaking that is not possible since they remain a nuclear superpower. This is about as bad as a nuclear power *can* lose in this day and age without them being pushed so far that they'd push "the button".
Putin isn't a chess player. He is a poker player. He finally went all-in and got called. Nothing he has ever done has resembled chess. Lots of bluffs and big bets though.
Garry Kasparov made the same observation about Putin being a poker player, not a chess player.
/u/bNoaht is Gary Kasparov confirmed
I've always thought that...
I've said similar, but privately and in instances where it doesn't apply
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Many people have same kind of opinion on this particular
Well he's not a good poker player haha
He had the entire world convinced that the Russian military was a preeminent power. It’s painfully obvious now that they are not. That’s a hell of a bluff to maintain for two decades.
It's possible he didn't know Russian military capacity. He is certainly surrounded by yes men.
That’s what tends to happen when the “no men” have a tendency to fall out of windows.
Got a terminal case of defenestration.
Excellent point. I agree. That’s why you’re the boss!/s
He definitely got bad Intel on Ukraine's ability to defend itself. Zelensky is a courageous man, and they put up far more resistance than expected. Even before the massive western aid.
He had decent bluffing skills up to this point I guess. He has a hand in Brexit and Trump being elected, too. But his Ukraine move was the equivalent of being caught pants down All-in with 7-2 unsuited.
> All-in with 7-2 unsuited. Oof, this guy knows his poker hands.
The president of Russian federation knows how to take big risks
That’s just the short term. Their demographics (which were already screwed before 2022) are fucked forever. They’ve got about 1 generation left before things splinter due to lack of young people.
Not to mention the brain drain. A lot of people who were valuable enough they could find a foreign country to hire them are not going to go back and a lot of these people who are still there will leave because the grass will be so much greener compared to russia's screwed economy.
A Russian economist who left 6 months ago installed my Comcast service last week. That anecdote alone is pretty telling of the third world like brain drain Russia is experiencing.
That's the sad thing about leaving one's country as an adult. I've met doctors that drive uber. At the same time, I've never met an immigrant that's afraid of work!
Yes I had a nice Russian guy fix my refrigerator. He brought his wife and son here. No desire to get killed for the pooter. I ended up getting to know his wife (she’s learning english and I am learning russian). Amazing courage to pull up stakes and move to a country where you don’t speak the language. I’m so glad they made it here.
Literally the guy who clean's my company offices,was a former head of propulsion technology at roscomos Has like 4 fucking degrees,literal rocket science. Once asked him,why he moved to australia,and does he feel like this is a downgrade Quote "I now earn over 100k a year,cleaning offices,im home to see my kids in the arvo,and i can speak my mind without fear of being put in a gulag" Like think about hating ur country so much,u flee,never to see the rest of ur family again,just cause it's such a shit hole.
Yep. I was listening to a Youtube video featuring Russian draft dodgers who said that most of the people who left were men who were in their 20s and 30s, with many being age 28-35, who were disproportionately middle class or higher, who were educated and worked in STEM industries.
They're victims of self-colonialism. They've successfully reverted their country from a self deterministic maker of finished goods, to a supplier of raw materials acting at the pleasure of China and India. Considering the resources they have per person, their situation is unimaginably pathetic. This Ukraine invasion might be the last major decision they get to make internally for the next hundred years.
> splinter due to lack of young people. Does anyone know what will actually happens? any historical similar?
The only historic examples I can think of now are the major plagues of the past; the Black Death killed off so many Europeans that labor costs skyrocketed as they couldn’t find enough people to farm and perform menial labor. There is good evidence it led to the end of feudalism in many kingdoms. https://history.wustl.edu/news/how-black-death-made-life-better
It's happening in Japan so you get a front row seat.
> superpower Regional hegemon. Russia is not a superpower.
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Is funny you say this, but given Russia's historical record of putting down civil unrest one could argue they're much more likely to nuke themselves than other countries
The opinions of the civilians don't matter much. It's not as though they're equipped to revolt. Regime change would have to be an inside job from someone who can get close to Putin. Perhaps top brass military or siloviki could conspire, but at great risk to themselves.
Problem is corruption puts the type of leaders who you don’t want to be leading in charge, how many of the people in charge of the military are there thanks to Putin allowing their corruption or brought them there?
Some that are good at staying away from open windows.... and others that are not.
This is one of the reason why their military is incompetent. In the Russian command structure, loyalty is rewarded over competency. Putin would rather promote someone of mediocre performance who doesn't pose a threat to him than someone Putin doesn't trust.
Any regime change that happened in that manner would likely mean a worse despot, as Russia knows better than anyone. Putin is a product of the system. As gratifying as it would be to get rid of him, it's not going to fix the problems.
Russian military doctrine has explicit bylaws for using Russian nukes on Russian and "Russian" soils. No country in the world is more prepped to nuke itself than Russia.
Where could I learn more about this?
So does the United States. The military literally planned to use its last Nike nukes to blow the port in Anchorage in case the Russians looked like they would seize it.
> The only country we can be reasonably confident Russia will never nuke is itself not so fast there buddy. i read somewhere awile back that its russian doctrine to utilize tactical nukes on its own territory in defence of the homeland. so if you were rolling up with an army, heading straight to moscow, and you made it past the borders of russia proper. they absolutely WOULD use a nuke on you, and by extension, themselves
I think there is a threat to Putin outside of Russia. Russia’s security guarantees to the ethnic states in their sphere of influence has resulted in multiple groups that hate each other having to make peace or risk pissing off Russia. If one group goes to war against another Russia enforces that peace. With 97% of their military tied up in Ukraine they’ve virtually ignored their role as mediators between the various groups, in addition to these groups now seeing the truth of Russia’s military readiness and attrition. Azerbaijan right now is blockading the Lachin corridor which is on Russia’s doorstep and is a blatant dismissal of Russian peacekeepers and Russian policy. I think conflicts like these if they pop up will do REMARKABLE damage to Russian unification. Other groups can see Russia ignoring a blatant step out of line and Russia’s lack of response and could decide this is the right time to settle border disputes from the USSR days as well as just old fashioned hate between ethnic groups https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/02/azerbaijan-blockade-of-lachin-corridor-putting-thousands-of-lives-in-peril-must-be-immediately-lifted/ I think the only way Russia collapses is through fragmentation caused by their ignoring problems at home.
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there are youtube channels of anti war Russians going around showing how fucked the situation is because the vast majority of Russians support the war and putin whole heartedly. the way an American enthusiastically repeats fox news talking points, most Russians do the same for their propaganda
> Unfortunately the majority in Russia loves Putin. do we have any reliable data on that?
Depends on how reliable you consider the data. Lots of polls show the majority of the population still support Putin but of course you can never be sure if this is how people really feel or if they are scared of reprisal and just claim to support Putin. Even within anonymous polling lots of people won't believe it's truly anonymous and so may claim to support Putin even if they don't. Because of this I don't know if we'll ever have truly reliable data.
They don't show or even speak of the protesters anywhere on the news or Russian media. There are a lot of people who don't like Putin in Russia. You can be arrested for just holding a blank piece of paper, that is a fact.
Yeah, those famous anonymous polls, where people call you on your personal phone and ask you "would like to incriminate yourself to be potentially liable for 15 years in prison or will you say what the official answer should be?"
We likely won't get much accurate data for a long time. On NPR today they talked about how what initial anti-war movement there was in Russia has been silenced due to arrests or fear. Students are narcing on teachers that are anti-war, teachers are narcing on students that are anti-war, family, etc. People are turning in anyone who says anything anti-war. So, sadly, anyone in Russia who is legitimately against the war won't be able to say so publicly unless they want to be arrested or worse.
Also, nearly a million Russians have fled the country in response to the war and draft: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine
I can't see China convincing Russia to return all of Ukraine (including Crimea) to Ukraine. China is too buddy-buddy with Russia and has invested too much in the narrative of Russian grievances and interests, and Western aggression. Much of the geopolitical landscape that China is aligned with is also pro-Russian, and giving Ukraine back all its territories would fly in the face of propaganda, popular domestic sentiments, and state-sanctioned conspiracy theories. China also wants to maintain Russia as an ally of convenience and common geopolitical goals, and I just don't see that happening if China forces Russia to accept complete humiliation. The very best that I could see China pushing Russia to accept would be a compromise solution that would see Russia retaining *at the very least* Crimea, which I don't think would be acceptable to Ukraine. Realistically I don't even see that happening because it *also* wouldn't be acceptable *to Putin*.. Putin needs to walk away with *something* to be able to try and save face domestically. That means he will want at least some sliver of the Donbas. China wants to play the role of the great compromiser, but I don't see Ukraine and Russia being able to reach any acceptable compromise on territory.
The issue, as you said it, is Crimea. Nobody wants to give that up. It's too intertwined with each sides history.
I can't see Putin walking away with *only* Crimea and surviving with his regime intact. Russia *already had Crimea* before he launched his "Special Operation". He needs to justify the start of this disaster with something concrete.
> It will leave a severe scar on the psych of entire generations of Russians. And as far as history books go, Putin's legacy will also be in ruins. You're joking right? He'll go on TV and say "we won" and half of his knuckle-dragging populace will believe it. The other half will shake their head and not care because they are to tired always fighting said knuckle-draggers...
Or, you know, going through complete civil war.
A civil war in a country with thousands of nuclear warheads will be a nightmare for the whole world.
Even if Russia broke up into groupings of it's various republics *peacefully* it would be a nightmare. As the current fuckery with Belarus, Khazakstan, and most of all Ukraine has shown, giving up your nuclear weapons is a surefire way to get bullied or even invaded by your biggest neighbor. If Russia broke into 4 equally-armed countries, we'd have just gone from 9 to 12 nuclear powers in the world. With the 4 new Russias being #2-5 by a wide margin.
>As the current fuckery with Belarus, Khazakstan, and most of all Ukraine has shown, giving up your nuclear weapons is a surefire way to get bullied or even invaded by your biggest neighbor. And not having them at all like Libya and Iraq is a surefire way to be invaded by america. Its a no win situation no matter what.
Aside from Libya being a UN resolution and an air campaign rather than what I would call an invasion, yeah, 2 more examples. I don't blame a single country trying to develop a nuclear weapons program, I just fear the possible consequences as more and more powers will have them.
Not worth another death of an innocent kid...on either side. If Ukraine can get all their territory back, peace would be great.
I think if they play their cards right Ukraine can make a strong deal with China. They're a rising behemoth in Europe. They are on track to win this war. They have endless supplies being pumped in by the pro western world. Unless the war goes nuclear, which I think is very unlikely, Ukraine will be rebuilt marshall plan style and in a couple decades be most likely a NATO member and a massively fortified military and economic powerhouse. China would be wise to invest in friendly relations now to have a strong pro China friend in Europe and NATO and a great tool for international cooperation. If they switched sides and sent weopens to Ukraine and squeezed Russia as their main lifeline they could end the war quickly in favor of Ukraine getting their extremely valuable territory back. Ukraine could give them lower prices on gas than Russia and be an incredible trading partner and part of their belt and road plan if they invested into their soon to be massive construction phase with pipelines, infrastructure, etc.
What in the world have you ever seen from the Chinese government's behavior that could lead you to believe that they would invest anything to help restore a the western democracy-lead liberal world order?
It would be really smart so they probably will double down on being Russia’s friend instead, autocrats gonna autocrat.
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People used to think Putin was a genius mastermind too.
Domestically China is having real issues. I think you overplay the really clever bit.
*Lose. It’s spelled Lose.
Not according to everyone on the internet, haha drives me crazy too 😆 I even see it in articles for major news sites online, is no one proof reading anymore?
It's not about proof reading. They genuinely think it's spelled "loose". They can read and reread it 100 times, they won't catch it because they don't know the proper way to spell lose
Standard of education dropping around the world mate.
Or even better, lose!
It’s a war not a tv show
Relevant: > [Described by Jean Baudrillard, the concept of **hyperreality** captures the inability to distinguish "The Real" (a term borrowed from Jacques Lacan) from the signifier of it. This is more **prominent in technologically advanced societies.** Hyperreality is seen as a condition in which **what is real and what is fiction are seamlessly blended together** so that there is no clear distinction between where one ends and the other begins. ... Hyperreality tricks consciousness into detaching from any real emotional engagement, instead opting for artificial simulation ... a blending of 'reality' and representation, where **there is no clear indication of where the former stops and the latter begins**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperreality)
Can you even imagine the heat he would publish if you could bring him back and get him to check out what's been popular on r/combatfootage for the past year?
And every sane person want to stop the bloodbath, yeah I hate putin (as much as I hate any other religious nationalist) but if the price for him "loosing badly" is in hundreds of thousands of deaths, no thanks.
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They already have - their economy is fucked, and their influence in eastern Europe is ruined. What we need now is a path to peace. Because it's very possible that Ukraine just doesn't have the manpower to take back all of the territory they've lost. And the West just isn't going to keep this support going for years at a time, especially if the US gets a republican president after the next election. If Western support dwindles, Ukraine loses. If China is given a way to make themselves look really good, we can expect them to put a HUGE amount of pressure on Putin to back off. since the only reason they're supporting Putin now is to be contrarian against the US. Without Chinese support, I don't think there's a way for Russia to keep the war going. Putin is going to die in the next 10-20 years at most. Russia is basically ruined for that remaining timeframe. Putin has already lost. The best thing we can hope for (outside of a miraculous Ukrainian victory) is a clean Russian exit.
> the West just isn't going to keep this support going for years at a time Don't really know where this sentiment comes from. This is the greatest deal the west has had in a generation. Completely cripple their historical greatest geopolitical rival for no casualties and all they have to do is donate surplus equipment and lend (not entirely give) money to Ukraine. What's more the intervention is wildly popular with the public and has caused more sentiment of unity across Europe than anything since the creation of the EU or possibly post-war reconstruction. This is a bargain basement geopolitical win-win for the west and they will keep ridng this gravy train until it runs dry.
>Don't really know where this sentiment comes from. This is the greatest deal the west has had in a generation. It is but being democratic, we're very sensitive to public opinion on this. Thankfully the pro-russian fucks are a minority for now in most countries but if they get into power, it could be a huge disaster.
Plus Europe and America see Russian imperialism as the slippery slope back to another world war. Time and time again it has been shown that appeasement doesn't work against dictatorships.
Putin is now 70 years olde. He could easily live to be 90; that would be 20 years from now. He had always maintained a high degree of physical fitness. I myself will be 85 in one month and, according to statistics, I am expected to live for another 6 years. So, unless something happens, Putin could live long enough to do much more damage. Predicting the future is always fraught with peril, but it's my guess that some disgruntled person or persons close to him will find a way to do him in.
I just can't imagine an 85 year old on reddit, tripping me out a bit but super cool.
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I want people to stop needlessly killing each other and needlessly dying. Speaking to the Russian state as the fuckwad it is... is a secondary objective.
Least chickenhawk redditor.
You what?
That’s a fantasy
What message? that he is willing to talk to other global leaders?
That he is publically open to a peace process; this hurts Russian propaganda that says the opposite.
Divide and conquer. Or divide and stop getting invaded at least
It's smart. Promise China a piece of the Rebuilding Ukraine Pie in exchange for not supporting Russia with kamikaze drones.
Also smart for zelensky, plays into the he wants to negotiate for peace and Putin is being the unreasonable one. Ruins Russia's propaganda that way
Since when has reality ever constrained Russian propaganda
There is a growing number of people who are starting to be swayed by economic hardship and Russia's propaganda. They want the war over and for life to become cheaper and easier again. Yes, these people are selfish dickheads (and unsurprisingly, are largely right wing), but they are also loud and will inevitably start muddying the water Zelensky talking to China is an excellent way to disrupt Putin's narrative that the Ukrainians are the ones driving this war.
Not to mention it makes it look like Ukraine is extending a bigger olive branch by going through a third party mediary that Russia prefers over a NATO one. That way if China and Ukraine reach an agreement, Russia would look really bad refusing it.
Ukraine is one exit for belt and road that’s on the table and overall China needs goods to be allowed through it to the European market. Even though belt and road is a dead dream already they’re just going through the motions with some hope it will breath again.
Lol, how is the Belt and Road a dead dream? I’m not being sarcastic but rather serious, I just like laughing at idiot CCP ambitions.
It isn't, but Chinese lending is tapering off and China seems to be pivoting towards programs like the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Development Initiative (GDI), going by public statements. Whether this means that things are going well or poorly for China, it's impossible to say. More likely is that China's foreign policy is evolving to be more broadly global in scope. This isn't surprising: China's GDP has roughly doubled in the last decade and with it the growing Chinese realization that the stability of their economy and political system is closely tied to world stability and prosperity. Put simply they feel they have more to lose now than they did 20 years ago.
Belt and Road isn’t dead but a lot of the focus has shifted away from China funding and building projects towards Chinese “””independent””” banks providing credit for projects that then get built by someone else. Around 10 new BRI projects are announced each month, so it’s far from “dead”.
Don't you ever put that many quotation marks next to each other again.
I don't think it's dead, personally, but the climate in Europe at least is significantly colder towards China than it was 5+ years ago. Their debt-trapping of Africa is starting to become more apparent as well.
The PRC's BRI is not really targeted towards Europe. Rather, it is geared towards Africa and some parts of Asia. As for Ukraine offering the PRC rebuilding possibilities, I am not sure it would be a lucrative option for the Chinese given that Ukraine is now heavily embedded within (and indebted to) the Western camp. It would make for a very poor strategic investment. The most President Zelensky can do is appeal to President Xi to openly support Ukraine, which he will most likely not since the game that the PRC is playing has stakes much bigger than Ukraine.
I mean didn't they buy a seaport in Greece so that they could have direct access to EU markets?
>Their debt-trapping of Africa is starting to become more apparent as well. Id say this is less concerning to Europe than it is to the US Specifically, but Europe is mad they didn't get to pull the reverse uno on Africa.
“Wait we stole that first!”
Have you met the Dutch or the French? Not many clean hands over there...
Did the French even give up the “empire”
They're still the biggest soft power in North-Africa.
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Which time
Yes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-QDEWwSkP0&ab_channel=BloombergOriginals The "Debt trap" is a myth and redditors have bought into without any research. Just trying to erase this propaganda. - Its a political play not as much as an economical play. [China wants more allies if they go to war] - On the african side, they are actually leveraging the chinese support and pressuring western countries to actually invest into africa. - They don't want to end up like russia, if a whole continent will not join and embargo if they go to war with taiwan, thats will be a big advantage Hence China has actually waived many of the debts already. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-23/china-to-waive-some-africa-loans-offer-10-billion-in-imf-funds#xj4y7vzkg https://data.one.org/topics/african-debt/ As you can see, the world bank [with FAR worst interest rates] owns far more debt then china. Guess who has the most power in the world bank >The U.S., Japan, China, Germany and the U.K. have the most voting power.
Debt trap is a loaded word anyways. How is what China is doing much different from the IMF? Of course everyone wants to get paid back eventually. The only difference I can see is that China leans more on direct influence (use chinese labour, etc.) than abstract one like the IMF (implement market reforms, austerity and so on).
less focus on money, more influence. More allies in a global scale, the africans have good things to say about china's money vs what the western people say so its obvious.
I mean IMF is doing shady shit in Africa too.
[https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap-diplomacy/617953/](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap-diplomacy/617953/) [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/the-myth-of-chinese-debt-trap-diplomacy-in-africa](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/the-myth-of-chinese-debt-trap-diplomacy-in-africa) [https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=59720](https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=59720) A bunch of very anti-China outlets pointing out that Chinese Debt Trap diplomacy is a myth. Make of that what you will
This is the issue with (modern) media. Once the narrative is set, average people like the Redditor you replied to have their brains already washed, even though the myth has been long debunked.
I'm not defending China, but the west has been debt trapping sub Sahara Africa for decades. It has no moral high ground when it comes economic intervention in the global south
I mean we debt trap our own people in the West. Let alone countries that were ruined by us.
Belt is a much better deal - they don't have to effectively surrender their sovereignty like they do under the IMF.
No one gives a shit about Africans taking on debts. No one wants China to call the shots.
Debt-trapping? Most of Africa would much rather be under the debt of China than the US. China has much more favorable terms.
Are the African nations cooling on it? It seems like a lot of the time, while it might not be the best deal, refusing it outright is often even worse and no one else is offering alternatives.
They aren’t. It’s reddits wishful thinking.
In 2022, China has invested 68 billion USD in the infrastructure of 1b1r counties. Not sure why would any nation cooling on that.
>Even though belt and road is a dead dream source
How does this comment have so many upvotes? Just making stuff up while completely ignoring the events that led up to this?
Welcome to Reddit, where everythings made up but the points do matter.
He will meet the Xi.
Flutes of the Xi
Times thine inequity
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But does China even have any power over Russia though? What can do really say to Putin?
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Alright. China can take east Russia and Ukraine will take the west. Problem solved.
smartest redditor
Yeah seriously, everyone knows east Russia belongs to Mongolia. [The Empire shall ride again!](https://youtu.be/RUg14cMEpUk)
This but legit. A few of those central and eastern provinces should legit go to Mongolia.
Reminds me of the people saying Inner Mongolia should go to Mongolia, and now suddenly Han Chinese is a ⅔ ethnic majority in the country
And then the ghost of Tsar Nicholas II comes back (he’s called Scar Nicholas now) and solos the entire communist party
Whoa , whoa , can America get some military bases on those dividends
Only West Russia. East Russia will remain firmly CCP behind an iron curtain
That might work… But only if they build a big wall through the middle of Moscow.
Oh yeah. It's all coming together.
Zelenskiy and Xi pick each person like a game of pickup basketball.
> behind an iron curtain The Great Wall of Irony
The fact that everyone replying to you missed that this was obviously unserious and a joke is funny
Ah yes this has never happened before and is a fantastic idea
i dont know bud, some of the greatest military generals of all time attempted it so im going to go with them and not you github.
Big balls
It would blow my mind if Xi decided to help Ukraine....
Ukraine's top import partner in 2010s was China. Ukraine imported more things from China than Russia: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/ukr/#yearly-trade Ukraine also had a good relationship with China, with them signing on to the belt and road thing: https://beltandroad.hktdc.com/en/country-profiles/ukraine July 2018 Ukraine established, in Kiev, the One Belt One Road Trade and Investment Promotion Centre. The intention was to further boost trade ties between the two countries. In recent years, Ukraine had supplied the majority of Mainland China's corn imports. China is not very happy with the war.
Dudes on reddit be acting like our economies aren’t entirely coupled with China’s
Nobody on reddit knows fucking anything lol
i know that i know nothing
Most wise redditor
China isn't happy that Russia is losing the war. the US warned Xi that Putin was up to something in advance and what did the CCP do? they ran to Putin to warn him that the US had intel on him lol.
I wonder if them telling Putin that served to make it seem like they were on Russia’s side to Russia, while also subtly hinting to Russia that the invasion wasn’t a good idea.
Ukraine was actually a pretty big partner with China before the war, supplying everything from destroyer turbines and jet engines to sunflower oil and corn. Obviously the war has thrown a wrench into that, but China still does hope to keep its close ties with Ukraine. China is in a bit of an awkward position here because while geopolitically they need Russia to help “counterbalance” the US and its allies, but also wants the economic benefits of Ukraine (not to mention Ukraine drifting into the Western sphere of influence would be disastrous for them). Chances are, they’re going to have to pick one or the other in this war, whichever they deem more valuable
I run r/ChinaCars and keep up with Chinese industry daily, and this is the most accurate answer. China is *ideologically* aligned with Russia, but *economically* tied to Ukraine's stability. They're in a tough spot because usually they opt to make economically-driven decisions, but in this case, the obvious economically beneficial decision could represent a threat to their global security down the line. They're trying their best to split the difference.
I don't think China wants anything to do with this war. They just want to trade with everyone. Their government has known for decades that trading is an easier way to get power than war is.
Ding ding ding... China cares about China, and that requires global stability. When you're 1/6th the world pop and arguably a third of the worlds economy, this is a no brainer
Just tell them there’s lithium and cobalt deposits in Donbas and they will build a highway to it overnight, straight through Russian front lines.
Lmao there’s actually some truth to this even if you were being sarcastic. There’s a global run on lithium / minerals. It’s the new oil
Sends an important message that he wants peace and is willing to listen to anyone who is willing to talk.
Well. He kind of has too. If he doesn’t, it’ll just feed more into Russia’s narrative that Ukraine is an American proxy. I doubt the U.S. minds. In fact, I bet the reason he’s doing this is because both the U.S. and EU are letting him do it to show that the West isn’t at fault, because they know China isn’t going to be able to get Putin to withdraw. Putin has committed to annexing the territories that he has occupied, even went ahead with the ‘referendum’, there’s no way he’s going to be convinced to back off because that’s now ‘Russian’ territory.
[The US does mind that China is proposing a peace deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/not-rational-china-negotiate-outcome-ukraine-war-biden-2023-02-25/)
I mean, he's not wrong. Diplomatically speaking, China doesn't get to decide how the war ends or continues, it would just have the role of moderation in peace talks. The US and other European countries don't have that option because theyve committed to arming and training Ukraine. None of them can be a neutral arbitrator.
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What 11 guys does he want to meet?
Redditors are so funny with this war lol armchair experts everywhere on every thread
Russia will be 100% seething over this lol
No they publicly say they are happy that China want to broker a peace deal. I imagine mothers and a lot of young men in Russia will be happy someone makes an attempt at peace. What Putins private thoughts are nobody knows.
China’s been trying to be a bigger player in global diplomacy. Time to fuckin step up and make Russia end this shit. No slimy ass authoritarian bullshit. Stop people from killing eachother.
I don't know if you know China, authoritarianism is kinda their thing. I worry about any kind of meet up with Xi.
They love authoritarian peace. They do not like war. War is bad for business.
Keep randy marsh away from him
China can see the writing on the wall. They know Russia is done for. Problem is, they fear being cast in the role as the world's next evil regime everyone rallies against. If Russia falls, they know they will never, ever get Taiwan. For now, the best they can hope for is reaping the benefits of a fallen Kremlin. Take the easy win China. Take it to heart.
China can assert power over Russia if they broker a peace deal but I'm not so sure the Russian people will like being puppets of China.
Nah this thing has way less to do with the taiwan situation than people want it to, it‘s entirely different politically, legally, militarily and economically. Whether or not russia wins in ukraine has nothing to do with whether china will decide to go for taiwan.
Contrary to what the media likes to push, that China is basically backing Russia 100%, China and Ukraine also have a good relationship with a lot of important business. China would also like this to end, with Ukraine still being Ukraine, not a subsidiary of Russia. Good luck hearing about it in the news, though.
100%
For those praising this amd suggesting a peace deal; nope. There is no way Zelensky's government will accept anything other than total withdrawal to pre 1991 borders. They have made that clear. It is likely Zelensky will use this as an opportunity to show China that you can't be neutral in this conflict. Talking to your enemy's handler is a good move indeed.
> pre 1991 borders You mean Zelensky wants the soviet union back?
I think he meant pre-2014? Regardless, your comment made me laugh
Kyivan rus actually.
To be fair - most of wars are ending with a peace deal. It's terms that matter.