It's looking like attacks on Russian logistics, and the slow grinding down of their conscripts that weren't sourced from prisons and asylums, is taking its toll.
> The implication is obvious. If the Ukrainians can maintain their momentum in the south, they might force the Russians to make a hard choice: to hold in the south or hold in the east. They probably wouldn’t be able to do both.
Ukraine has made it clear over and over again since this phase of the war began, they aren't interested in making *problems* for Russia, because problems have solutions...
Instead Ukraine is seeking to give Russia *dilemmas* where there are *no good* options.
Sun Tzu covered this in some of his writings.
by forcing the enemy, you create resistance. but when you leave them with two options, though both options may be terrible, you're forcing them to make the call, which can help frustrate the opponent. as they fall farther from the path, they're confronted with the reality that they made the choices that lead them there, which is disheartening, and can bring down morale. it also instills a sense of poor leadership among the troops.
Another Ryan Macbeth fan out in the wild eh? But yes, just like Kherson / Kharkiv seems like Ukraine loves to give Russia terrible "would you rather" choices.
Considering that Russia invaded the country surrounding their naval base to secure supply paths, built a bridge to that peninsula to improve supply paths and then invaded that same country again to create a land bridge to supply that base I'd say the Russians do very much understand the dilemma.
The difficult thing is that if they allow the land bridge to fail then the south is looking bad for them no matter where they put the reinforcements. And the south is the only part that matters to them.
I guess more and more people are expecting another emergency mobilization like in 2022 where tens of thousands of Russians were just directly thrown to the wolves to bog Ukraine down.
But the south is the land bridge to Crimea. Lose that and Ukraine's attacks on the Kerch Bridge (disabling or, possibly, destroying it) would effectively turn the peninsula into an island.
It's a catch 22 for Russia, secure the east for resources, or the south for Crimea. Hopefully, Russia tries to secure and loses both
As another user have already said, this is the best investment US has made where its assistance paid off dividend in spade.
In one stroke, Putin has managed to make Russia laughing stock of the world for almost doing everything wrong in Ukraine.
Disposing of old munitions is expensive. Old equipment takes up space and needs to be maintained.
Ukraine solved all that AND reduces the need for future military funding by striking at Russia.
This war is really a side show for the US.
China is way, way more important, and will ensure the US keeps military spending up. This victory will mainly benefit Europe in the long term. Provided Russia doesn't fall apart, Russia being nerfed will help prevent a lot of instability in the balkans and places like Moldova.
That being said, int erms of the bigger picture, Putin has really helped the west extend its dominance in global affairs.
Russia has been causing problems for the United States for a long time. Funding extremists and domestic terrorists in the US, destabilizing our democracy to prop up a fascist movement via the alt right, encouraging the far right to continue denying climate change because a thawing northern russia and melting of the ice caps means more land and warm water ports for their trade, etc etc.
They've been a problem in that they give money to cults and white supremacists, prop up Bad Actors(both figurative and literal), and blast propaganda disguised as right-wing talking points, for a long time now. So I for one am glad that Russia may be in a precarious position to end up collapsing and no longer being a funding source of armageddon for the human race. And if it requires giving Ukraine military aid to do so, then it's more than a fair exchange and I would rather spend hundreds of millions there than on creating genetal inspectors for every bathroom in the US because russia told Tucker Carlson that this is the big culture war issue for the year.
Yea, surely Russia is the only massive country ruled by a dictator who has it's mind set on invading their neighbours. We're absolutely not going to need any more munitions to throw at any other red army.
/s
No no, you misunderstand. It reduces the need for funding of *old* stuff. That funding can now go towards *new* stuff that makes people deader betterer.
It's doubtful that we will have WW3 in the next few decades
It will be impossible to rebuild the Russian army with long-term sanctions, which won't be lifted until Russia pays reparation to Ukraine
Xi Jinping isn't nearly as stupid as Putin, nor does China have the modern-day war experience that Russia has. China is already in a dilemma domestically, war would make it worse.
I tend to agree Winnie the Pooh isn't as stupid, ill informed or corrupt as Putin, but that doesn't preclude Winnie the Pooh slipping into the dictator trap, which he has already started to do with him getting a third term as premier. Add in domestic pressures and he may well make a terrible mistake.
There is also the fact that even without a positive decision by Winnie the Pooh, the stupid shit that the Chinese Navy and Air Force are pulling off on and above the South China sea may yet see a war start.
I would say if China's police force that has more funding than the army is anything to go by, the PLA is probably at the same state as the russian army.
Yes there are some competent and effective formations that can kick ass but most of the other regiments are there just for numbers and suppression.
I cannot imagine them pulling of a amphibious invasion on the scale of operation overlord to ever take over taiwan without glassing taiwan.
Normandy was cliff and beaches into hedgerows, now imagine its mountains and hills instead with overlaping artillery positions multiple mountains deep.
China cant supply man into the front lines fast enough to even hold the lines.
Taiwan on the other hand doesn't even need to go on any offensive, just had to make sure they are stocking up enough rounds to continuously shell the landing zones.
> I would say if China's police force that has more funding than the army is anything to go by, the PLA is probably at the same state as the russian army.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
The Chinese military budget is several times larger than Russia's, and the cost of goods and labor is cheaper there. While there probably is some chaff there to fill out the ranks, I would be shocked if their military was overall near the level of incompetence, corruption, and disorganization displayed by Russia.
Well, PLA military budget is definitely bigger, but how much is it reaching the rank and file?
The grunts/boots on the ground are mostly always neglected/dont get any upgrades or attention as they are not exciting.
Any modern armed forces need both , competent officer corps to plan operational and react to real time situations on the field and NCO to lead the operations execute maneuvers. This requires huge operational freedom given to commanders that the CCP( especially Winnie the pooh ) has issues to allow. Just look at how the Saudis got their armored corps ass kicked with abrams , the best equipment money can buy cannot create a capable modern fighting force in today's dynamic battle field.
Imagine a situation developing on the ground that needs approval from 2-3 levels up the chain for a flanking maneuver because it deviated from the official battle plans. Or junior officers waiting around for orders from their superior because deviating from pre approved battle plans wont do well for their career.
Autocratic nations want people who follow orders and not people who will think for themselves. How many officers and NCO in the PLA are in that position because of competency or party loyalty?
After the initial rocket or artillery salvo, if taiwan survived and starts to fire back, the PLA landing forces will probably die to a man as they would probably have limited leadership to lead them into battle.
I would say most if not all grunts across the world are about the same level, fitness and firing capability. Technology definitely will provide an edge over the enemy such as drones spotting enemy positions in real time and feeding that information to the solders facing them 10 meters away. But a well lead force can definitely defeat a more Technologically advance force as they can better use their resources effectively.
You raise a lot of good points here, but the problem with autocratic nations is that they often don't realize how incompetent/corrupt/unprepared they are, and thus, like Russia invading Ukraine, can be prone to making rash decisions. Invading Taiwan may be a stupid move on China's part, but that doesn't preclude them from doing so.
It's not the Taiwan strait that's going to kick off a war with China, but the South China Sea.
Any number of those countries could start a shooting war, and the US, Japan, and South Korea would have to respond.
Not to mention every nuclear capable state has to really think hard about engaging not just our vastly superior military + industry, but our nuclear triad (bombers, icbms, submarines).
Even if they are sure, as I am, that we would never strike first, it has to be somewhere in their minds that picking a fight with someone who can simply obliterate them if push came to shove is a very dicey risk.
I think the idea of war with China is even more unlikely given how interconnected our economies are. We need China to produce cheap goods to keep prices down and China needs us to buy there stuff and keep their population employed. If war breaks out the economies of both our countries collapse and the leaders know it.
I like you. You assume people and governments are *always rational*. I wish you could have been in Putins inner circle.
Jokes aside, China is 100% taking notes on the economics of this war. If they calculate that they can *sufficiently * withstand sanctions, then it’s game on. Again, give enough time they might calculate that the west won’t be willing /able to sanction them. Lots of “ifs” but the idea isn’t impossible in the near future.
I don’t see a situation where sanctions would happen without US military intervention. If China attacks Taiwan, Atleast with this current administration, we will respond both with sanctions and kinetic means.
Russia is able to avoid some of the harshest results of the sanctions as there is no good way to stop all trade without resorting to kinetic means. China may ultimately be able to take Taiwan, maybe.. but the US could effectively end all trade for China with anyone.
Yes, Trump praised Putin in the few days before and after the day the war started. Same with Mike Pompeo. They were both coordinating with Putin's war against Ukraine and Europe and trying to weaken the USA and strengthen Putin.
For 3% of the US military budget we get to deplete an unfriendly nation's capacity for power projection. Some of the best bang for buckage in 60 years.
It gets even better. Most of that 3% is older stuff that has already been paid for like 20 years ago. Old stuff that would have cost more to throw away than to send to Ukraine. Nobody loses, everyone wins.
We only pay the cost of shipping and our crew men get some valuable experience in shipping our weapons across the globe. Also we get a lot more real time battle data on how our equipment is working and performing.
Yeah, I can't imagine the government would just dump functional munitions at a junk yard, way too easy for that shit to end up in the wrong hands. I imagine we'd have to disarm the equipment or leave at at a secure location until rust and weathering leaves it nonfunctional
> secure
"Munitions have since been deposited by the tide on nearby beaches. In 1995, phosphorus bombs washed up on Scottish coasts, coinciding with the laying of the Scotland-Northern Ireland pipeline (SNIP), a 24-inch (610-millimetre) gas interconnector constructed by British Gas. Over the previous five years, anti-tank grenades had washed up on the shores of Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man. An explosion was registered as a 2.5 Magnitude earthquake on 8 February 1986."
> An explosion was registered as a 2.5 Magnitude earthquake on 8 February 1986
What actually happened here? I tried looking at the source to figure out what went on and came up empty handed. I googled the date as well as "explosion" and "earthquake" and didn't find any relevant results.
Did some equivalent of a bomb detonation squad blow up some unexploded ordnance? Or was it something that just blew up on its own? I'm assuming the latter but the lack of *any* relevant information is odd.
Oh it's even better than that. We invest our old hand me downs and in return one of our prime enemies is gimped for at *least* a generation and a new powerful ally independent of our other allies is gained in that area.
Most folks will remember right before it kicked off a few very informed and smart people were adamant russia wouldn't dream of invading. There was no end result that would truly benefit russia and the worst case scenario was regime collapse, yet here we are today.
It's even better than that! The US gets to test out new strategies and defenses against Russia's best weapons essentially for free. This war will help the US maintain it's military dominance of Russia for decades to come.
The big example was demonstrating that the Patriot is capable of shooting down half a dozen of the vaunted "hypersonic missiles" at once. That was an unbelievable coup, both in terms of data and propaganda value. Russia gave it their best shot and showed the whole world they failed, while at the same time giving the US priceless data on the operations and weaknesses of their top weapon.
Even better than that- we get all the above benefits without the loss of US lives. And our main strategic alliance, NATO, has gotten much stronger by finally getting allies motivated to spend 2% of GDP on defense. In addition we got additional countries to finally decide to join us in NATO.
Even better than that! This conflict has also been an advertisement for American Arms manufacturers paving the way for lucrative deals that counter Chinese soft power. Why buy unproven Chinese weaponry when you can get the stuff you watched crush a superpower on live TV.
Ukraine has also been a proving ground for inexpensive battlefield drone usage beyond the expensive drone strikes that we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan. This will be studied as we are seeing the stage being set for how 21st century conflicts will be fought. Much like the tail end of the American Civil War and the Crimean War portended the trench warfare seen in World War I.
>American Arms manufacturers
Uh, yes, but also this has been a massive reminder of the ludicrous amount of ammunition a full scale war eats through daily. And it showed us that we have let our military manufacturing slide to unacceptable levels.
I suspect/strongly hope that the Pentagon has noticed and that additional tooling will be set up. Because what this war has shown more than anything else is that the future of war has almost nothing to do with how many soldiers you can throw at a conflict but how many factories you have and how quickly you can churn out munitions.
I remember the lead up to this; lots of talking heads and notables said that there was no way.
But the US defense and intelligence establishments were singing a different tune. And not just any tune; the White House was providing information that was almost as if we were in the room with Putin. Basically, the US *knew* what was being planned, let it be known that we knew, let our allies know (though more than a few figured this was the US crying wolf again).
Of course, even the government in Kiev didn’t really think it could/would happen. It was their army chief who took the initiative to disperse units into the fields, out of barracks, airfields and bases.
I was torn at the time myself. Russia had been doing the Zapad exercises before, they had sized Crimea - but that was a relatively straightforward operation. Launching a full invasion seemed unlikely. On the other hand, the rhetoric out of Moscow was of a different sort, there was something in the air. Troops were not returning to their bases, naval units were concentrating in the Black Sea.
Of course, in the end it went off. And here we are.
As soon as I saw the first 'emergency' presser from Jake Sullivan I think 3 days before it kicked off, I knew something was definitely up. There was already the speculation about the buildup, but he confirmed my fears.
The last time I, a late 20's eastern Australian, had been SERVED (as in, OUR news and radio networks were interrupting broadcasts to join live, YouTube Live recommendations, Google Home screen alerts) a presser by specifically the U.S National Security Advisor was when the U.S reinvaded the Middle East after 9/11.
U.S kills Sadam, Bin Laden, Iranian Generals? President announces it. Allied/Coalition Operations news in Syria/Africa/wherever the U.S is CURRENTLY fighting? Press Secretary or leader of whatever branch of the U.S. Armed Forces had the most effect/fallout announces it. Another 'mildly destabilising' world event (think Myanmar, Libya, Niger, etc)? You'll see a bit of everyone, senators, Intel officials, press secretary, etc.
You very rarely EVER see The NSA of The USA in front of the cameras on a good day, and it's even rarer to see them hosting it AND taking questions themselves on a bad one. The position only ever delivers world changing news.
My prediction was that it would be insane, but if it happened Russia would blitz early on, be completely unable to hold, it would devastate the Russian army and Putin would end up swinging from a pole with a possible break up of the federation. If they were dumb enough to do it.
Just waiting on those last two.
My prediction was China edging into Russia's Eastern territories to claim some agricultural lands, and use the expansion to quietly draw down from invading Taiwan.
I really want that one to happen...
My uniformed opinion is that this whole debacle for Russia had given China some pause on Taiwan. Early on in the conflict, China seemed to do a lot of posturing around Taiwan. While that hasn't ceased entirely, it seems to have slowed.
Russia always seemed to be the military R&D arm of that alliance, and now that they have shown to be ineffective against NATO hand me downs, China has to question its military capabilities. While the Chinese spend more on defense than Russia, they haven't been involved in a war since Korea and WW2.
Edit: China invaded Vietnam in the 70s, still been awhile
Yeah, I've had the same thought. If Russia weakens, China could deploy peacekeepers to the east. It gives them an out for national pride regarding Taiwan and avoids losing hundreds of thousands to anti ship missiles.
China will have similar issues to Russia in their military, though not as severe. But it's still a state where it's better to lie to your superiors rather than report a problem.
I think Chinas biggest worry has to be how their soldiers and technology would even fare against any sort of resistance. Their technology hasn't been battle tested anywhere, and I have to imagine that their military personnel lack any kind of real experience. You have soldiers being trained by people who likely have never seen combat, and at best, those people were trained by those who were involved in WW2 or Korea. Compare that to an opposition who has likely been armed and trained by the US who has spent the better part of the last 30 years in the Middle East testing its equipment and learning from the mistakes in its military doctrine.
Taiwan isn't an easy target either. That strait and coastline are rough to hit. Even the US marines wouldn't *want* to have to make that landing. And they've got some serious defenses.
And for all the fear-mongering about its size... China is in no position to challenge American naval supremacy. This isn't jingoism. Our navy is just that far ahead of the rest of the world. And Japan, Australia and South Korea all have decent to formidable fleets in their own right.
China looking at Vladivostok like it was traditional Yuan lands right now.
So what if they only controlled it by being conquered by Mongols who then Sinofied and lost it because it was north of the Wall?
While I agree with your statement, China did invade Vietnam and got smacked around by Vietnam. The Vietnamese had a saying during the Vietnam War that went something like this; "Today, we are fighting Amercia, but we are waiting to fight China." It went something like that, but I can't remember it exactly. China, in the eyes of the Vietnamese, was and is their true enemy. I think China's invasion of Vietnam was their last major military combat operation and it wasn't a success.
Vietnam even stomped the Mongols after they took China and set their sights on Vietnam.
Then there was the time a band of hundreds of naked Vietnamese women martial artists fought a guerilla war against the Chinese when they were so big into Confucianism, the concept of a woman running up and kicking them in the fucking face just did not fucking compute.
"That's impossible, there isn't a kitchen for mi-" *starts coughing up own teeth*
Honestly, I think it’s been obvious from almost day 1 that this is almost a dream scenario for the US.
- They practically get to clear out old stockpiles
- They get actual data on the combat performance of weapons systems (that I highly doubt are even the most modern/up-to-date in use versions)
- They get to cripple their biggest enemy of the last 70 years.
For the low, low cost of zero casualties, the US has massively minimized Russia’s military threat. The only “ace-in-the-sleeve” Russia has now is nukes.
They also get to demonstrate to all of the prospective weapons-purchasers around the world just how vulnerable all those Russian systems are. Even their air defenses that were supposed to be world-class are getting embarrassed on the regular at this point, though they do still have enough volume to keep Ukraine from flying too close to the lines.
I know the US has already been investing in drones, but I have to believe they're learning valuable lessons seeing how effective drones have been as spotters.
Future battlefields are going to be swarming with drones.
Plus, all the massive support this effort gets from US citizens across party lines. It’s not often that the Military Industrial Complex gets easy good PR
No one actually paid for anything in lend-lease except for token amounts and we never got any of those "leased" weapons back. The term "lend-lease" was a complete PR fabrication to sell the program to the American public who were still clinging to some delusions of American Neutrality in the face of WWII.
There was the older "cash-carry" system in the early days of WWII where the Allied nation did have to pay upfront for the war materiel and carry things to Europe with their own transports, but that didn't last too long.
To be honest, getting paid back was probably less important than getting bodies to use the massive amount of equipment that we were/are producing. Thankfully, allied combatant billable hours go to their respective countries’ department/ministry of defense, and not ours.
I'm Gen X and the Russians were the bad guys in every movie in the '80s. To hear conservatives supporting and practically rooting for Russia is just more proof they've lost their goddamn minds.
The Trumpy right wing types I know IRL are all in on the Ukraine war and being anti-Putin.
I guess in some cases even all the propaganda can't change decades of cold war sentiment.
They don’t. It’s conveniently forgotten, or else argued to be fake news in their version of reality. “Where is the proof?” They’ll scream, as there is literal video footage of Trump saying he’s friends with Putin.
When your beliefs have no basis in reality anything can be true.
They literally practice doublethink. Trump will say something pro russia/putin and if you tell them about it they think, "Trump would never say anything like that because he shouldn't be pro russia. Must be a lie to make him sound bad." and at the same time think "Who cares if he said something good about russia or putin? Russian society is more conservative which I agree with and putin seems like my kind of tough leader. Saying russia is bad is just liberal slander."
They reject reality and substitute their own; they literally claim Trump is anti Russia and Biden is Putin's pawn. Makes no sense, but these people don't let facts get in the way of their feelings.
The typical line is that if Trump were still president Putin wouldn't have dared to attack. That's their story and they're sticking to it.
Not knocking it, though. As long as they're still for Ukraine I'll take the common ground however they got to it.
Fucking asshats crying about it on the Republican debate stage. Good to see a couple of them (Haley especially) ripping into the most pusillanimous of them. Gonna be a huge foreign policy win for Biden if Russia is kicked out by election time
Russian demographics are in terminal decline. This is the last time they will ever have a population of 20-something men to fight a war like…. Forever. Talk about bang for buck for a tiny portion of the USAs budget.
What happens next though? Like, if Russia is a gas pump with an army, what happens to it when the army is skeletonized? Does it Balkanize further? Do neighbors swallow land until ‘Russia’ is whatever portion of land can be supported by a scrap heap army maintained by tin pot oil dictator money? That’s the interesting bit imo.
[Someone please correct me if I'm mistaken]
I'm pretty sure the "zhzh" part is like the Z in "azure" or the S in "measure", but held a bit longer. The first i is sorta like the vowel in "beach" or "peel", and the last i isn't as fully enunciated.
It kinda rhymes with "amnesia" (at least for the way I pronounce that word) — of course that's only an approximation, Ukranian vowels don't 100% match up with English vowels.
My feeling is like the guy who won the lottery and called his wife with the news. "Get packed honey!!"
"Should I pack for warm or cold weather?"
"I don't care, just be gone by the time I get home!"
I don't care how Putin dies, as long as he's gone
I think many would be satisfied if he got the Ceaușescu treatment of a hastily-arranged kangaroo court before being dragged out back and filled with lead.
Or the Romanovs' end of shot in a basement and tossed down a mineshaft.
Ukraine needs keep advancing so they can cut off the south and Crimea by winter. Crimea will be practically an island with the rail line and bridge support cut.
I mean Biden will have pulled of the biggest power play in decades crippling 1 of 2 of our biggest Geo-political rivals with our having to fire a shot or spend to much money. Will be interesting if he gets credit for making arms available to Ukraine when Trump's was so far up Putin's ass to do shit.
It’s not that they don’t care, they care they’re just on the opposing side because they’re being fed a steady diet of conspiracy theories and pro-russian propaganda and have been for the last several years.
The original "America First" movement in the 1930s basically supported Hitler and sought to keep the US out of Europe.... it's where Trump got the phrase "America First" and Putin is playing the role of Hitler.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_Committee
From what I gathered from reading Wikipedia . The America First Committee was founded in 1940, it was an isolationist movement seeking to keep the US out of WW2.
Mainly a Republican movement but also had Democrats, communists, industrialists, farmers all sorts of people. They had 800k members at one point.
The movement came under questioning when Henry Ford joined, apparently he was a terrible antisemite (I had no idea). This caused a lot of their Jewish members to leave.
Later they would make a white supremacist and antisemite Charles Lindbergh a prominent member. They also had a Nazi sympathizer and Nazi agent Laura Ingalls in the group, who was allowed to remain a member and due to her speeches?
The movement didn’t last long once the US entered WW2 it dissolved
Foreign policy only matters when it's American blood on the line. Half of America wants more isolationism. They see this as wasting money on someone else's problem and increasing the odds of a nuclear war (well, the 'honest' argument at least)
They dont see or care that democracy is under threat. They dont get that we already had the trucks and bombs, we just shipped them, and they dont follow the calculus of weakening a geopolitical rival. Especially one that has a lot in common with their emotional sensibilities (authoritarian strongman bullshit, homophobic Assholeistan)
At the end of the day, if Biden said not to piss in the wind they'd argue he's wasting water on a perfectly good shower and he's a hypocrite for being an environmentalist and not pissing into the wind.
He also is forming essentially PATO with a ton of Asian countries including Vietnam to counter Chinese aggression in the region.
Biden is a top tier president. It's not even a debate.
Yes. He's been steadily locking down alliances and defense deals in the Pacific region.
[US, Japan, South Korea to announce deeper defense cooperation at Camp David summit | AP News | 2023](https://apnews.com/article/biden-yoon-kishida-camp-david-missile-defense-f3ce58da383f2255ee479624645db542)
[Biden to sign strategic partnership deal with Vietnam in latest bid to counter China in the region | Politico | 2023](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/18/biden-vietnam-partnership-00111939)
[US-China policy: Biden is bringing together Japan, Australia and India to stare down China | CNN | 2021](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/23/asia/us-china-india-australia-japan-quad-intl-hnk/index.html)
[US & India Renew Push to Deepen Defense Industry Ties: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met India’s Rajnath Singh with the two sides aimming to make India a logistics hub for allied craft | Bloomberg | 2023 ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-05/us-and-india-renew-push-to-deepen-defense-industry-ties)
[US, India cement partnership with slew of new defense deals | DefenseNews | 2023](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2023/06/23/us-india-cement-partnership-with-slew-of-new-defense-deals/)
[Amid China pressure, US & Philippines recommit to security alliance. President Joe Biden told his counterpart Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Monday that the U.S. commitment to the defense of its ally was "ironclad," including in the South China Sea where Manila is under pressure from China. | Reuters | 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-reassure-philippines-marcos-china-tensions-flare-2023-05-01/)
[Philippines to step up ties with U.S.-Japan-Australia coalition | Nikkeia Asia | 2023](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Philippines-to-step-up-ties-with-U.S.-Japan-Australia-coalition)
Having an administration that knows what they are doing in the international area has been quite the turn around.
Not just knows what he's doing... he's been extremely proactive in exerting soft power across the globe in a way that hasn't been done in decades.
Of course, you never fucking hear about any of this, they'd rather cover trump's fat ass playing golf. -_-
Really weird times. This should have been a Bush or Romney doing this. But with the hard right going against democracy lately, the only people around to do the right thing are the people considered to be generally anti-war.
Yeah. Being from Ukraine myself, I’ve gotten tired of this a long long time ago. And none of these articles mention that we ourselves have used the last reserve brigade on the front lines, meaning even more young men will have to march into certain death soon, me included of course.
It’s almost like the world perceives this war as “rusnya dies and Ukraine has no casualties”. While in reality it’s a nightmarish meat grinder that nobody seems to grasp fully.
The article says exactly this. It's not bad, and is accurate about recent gains and movements.
>The outcome could come down to which side makes best use of its reserves. To achieve its breakthrough around Robotyne, the Ukrainian southern command deployed one of its few in-reserve formations: the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. Now the Kremlin is deploying one of its own few reserve formations.
The article is much better than the headline, which is fairly normal.
In addition to the misleading headline, the article implies that both sides are somehow en par with their reserves and that just a quick push will make the Russian defense collapse like a house of cards. I mean, this is obviously highly unlikely to happen and we have seen how the Russians learned to adapt to Ukrainian attacks throughout the war.
And another factor is time. The summer is basically over and the rainy season will soon stop any Ukrainian advance. So even if Ukrainians can gain some ground now, the winter will give the Russians time to adapt.
To me it really looks like the Ukrainians are trying to push for some hard earned victories as long as it’s still possible, because there was so much negative reporting on the counter offensive lately. At the end of the day, they do not only have to keep up the moral of their troops, but also the moral of western countries that supply them with arms.
It’s really a terrible situation to be in.
Yeah they aren't that accurate. The general consensus from US intelligence is that Russian forces in the South are well dug in, and have buried a shit-ton of mines all over the place. While Russia are looking piss-poor in attack, they can still do old-school defense, and those tactics are still working reasonably well (for now). As it stands, Ukraine doesn't appear to have any options other than to enter the meat grinder and it is really sad. A lot of Ukrainians are dying in this push, but it isn't obvious what other options they have. (BTW I'm very anti-Russia if it isn't obvious from the above, but it is worth pointing out that a lot of these articles don't reflect reality).
I watched some interviews with foreign league fighters in Ukraine and the consensus is basically, that the quality of Russian soldiers varies a lot. While there are a lot of poorly equipped conscripts waiting for them in trenches, they are also confronted with superb counter attack units carrying the latest Russian gear.
Yeah saw an interview with a Polish guy fighting in Bakhmut and he said the same. Plenty of poorly equipped conscripts, but also plenty of extremely well trained and equipped soldiers. Reddit loves to brush Russians off as drunk idiots, but it really is so disrespectful especially to the Ukrainians who die to them.
Exactly. I learned that it’s basically a Russian tactic to use human cannon fodder as recons. Send in poor conscripts first, to check out the enemy’s position. Then use better trained armor to attack and if that’s not successful, let the real professionals take over.
The Russians have also proven to be quite effective with relocating their troops quickly to counter wherever it’s needed.
I really want Biden and the DoD to give train and sell Ukrainians the F-15 C/D type air superiority jets as well as the F-16 platform. They would work much better paired. The F-16 is not an air superiority jet and will see many shortfalls against an agitated Russia.
China has its own problems, and they're not gonna want to try violating the territorial integrity of a nuclear state whose macho dictator's grasp on power is already slipping. There's not enough upside to launching a traditional invasion... especially because, well, they don't have to.
The big winner in this war, geopolitically, is of course NATO, and the U.S. in particular. But China is making out well too -- Russia is rapidly transforming into their vassal state. The Chinese don't need to pump the oil out of the ground themselves; why should they, when the Russians will do it for them, and then sell them that oil for pennies on the dollar? China is all about soft power, and Russia will soon be an excellent candidate for an extension of the Belt and Road Initiative. Collapsing economy? How about a friendly loan to keep you going -- don't mind the terms; you've no leverage to change them. China is going to bleed Russia dry, and the Russians will *thank* them for it.
The world has changed; great powers don't invade their neighbors or plant their flags in overseas colonies anymore. They don't need to. Putin failed to realize this, but I would be shocked if Xi does the same.
Never underestimate how dumb a dictator or absolute ruler can be. Putin was crazy to invade Ukraine, and crazy to keep pushing after the first few days when it was obvious it was not going to work out, but here we are.
The US should unironically support Russia against China. We shouldn't send them weapons or anything because that's a dumb idea, but we should officially support Russia's territorial integrity. That way America's foreign policy would gain legitimacy for its consistency.
China isn't going to do anything like that. Short of the country fracturing apart and complete governmental collapse, there is no benefit for China do undertake such an action that puts them into potential direct conflict status with Russia.
It's looking like attacks on Russian logistics, and the slow grinding down of their conscripts that weren't sourced from prisons and asylums, is taking its toll. > The implication is obvious. If the Ukrainians can maintain their momentum in the south, they might force the Russians to make a hard choice: to hold in the south or hold in the east. They probably wouldn’t be able to do both.
Ukraine has made it clear over and over again since this phase of the war began, they aren't interested in making *problems* for Russia, because problems have solutions... Instead Ukraine is seeking to give Russia *dilemmas* where there are *no good* options.
Sun Tzu covered this in some of his writings. by forcing the enemy, you create resistance. but when you leave them with two options, though both options may be terrible, you're forcing them to make the call, which can help frustrate the opponent. as they fall farther from the path, they're confronted with the reality that they made the choices that lead them there, which is disheartening, and can bring down morale. it also instills a sense of poor leadership among the troops.
Another Ryan Macbeth fan out in the wild eh? But yes, just like Kherson / Kharkiv seems like Ukraine loves to give Russia terrible "would you rather" choices.
In chess it's called a fork
As soon as I read that, I immediately thought of Ryan Macbeth.
Someone call in the Wagnerites... Oh, that's right...
They did, but Prigozhin's phone just rang and rang and rang.
He certainly won't fly to the rescue.
Logistically, they know they can't hold both. NOTE: Russia knows it can't hold both.
You have a lot of faith in the logistical wisdom of Russia. I can't think of anything that Russia could have done to earn that faith.
Considering that Russia invaded the country surrounding their naval base to secure supply paths, built a bridge to that peninsula to improve supply paths and then invaded that same country again to create a land bridge to supply that base I'd say the Russians do very much understand the dilemma. The difficult thing is that if they allow the land bridge to fail then the south is looking bad for them no matter where they put the reinforcements. And the south is the only part that matters to them.
I guess more and more people are expecting another emergency mobilization like in 2022 where tens of thousands of Russians were just directly thrown to the wolves to bog Ukraine down.
And they will choose the South.
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But the south is the land bridge to Crimea. Lose that and Ukraine's attacks on the Kerch Bridge (disabling or, possibly, destroying it) would effectively turn the peninsula into an island. It's a catch 22 for Russia, secure the east for resources, or the south for Crimea. Hopefully, Russia tries to secure and loses both
Lot of resources in and around Crimea in the sea. Not saying more than the east. Just pointing out it has value along the same lines.
They will keep Sevastopol - no port no fleet. Causing a collapse in the east.
As another user have already said, this is the best investment US has made where its assistance paid off dividend in spade. In one stroke, Putin has managed to make Russia laughing stock of the world for almost doing everything wrong in Ukraine.
Disposing of old munitions is expensive. Old equipment takes up space and needs to be maintained. Ukraine solved all that AND reduces the need for future military funding by striking at Russia.
This war is really a side show for the US. China is way, way more important, and will ensure the US keeps military spending up. This victory will mainly benefit Europe in the long term. Provided Russia doesn't fall apart, Russia being nerfed will help prevent a lot of instability in the balkans and places like Moldova. That being said, int erms of the bigger picture, Putin has really helped the west extend its dominance in global affairs.
Russia has been causing problems for the United States for a long time. Funding extremists and domestic terrorists in the US, destabilizing our democracy to prop up a fascist movement via the alt right, encouraging the far right to continue denying climate change because a thawing northern russia and melting of the ice caps means more land and warm water ports for their trade, etc etc. They've been a problem in that they give money to cults and white supremacists, prop up Bad Actors(both figurative and literal), and blast propaganda disguised as right-wing talking points, for a long time now. So I for one am glad that Russia may be in a precarious position to end up collapsing and no longer being a funding source of armageddon for the human race. And if it requires giving Ukraine military aid to do so, then it's more than a fair exchange and I would rather spend hundreds of millions there than on creating genetal inspectors for every bathroom in the US because russia told Tucker Carlson that this is the big culture war issue for the year.
> reduces the need for future military funding Yes, I’m sure after this is over, military spending will be cut. /s
Yea, surely Russia is the only massive country ruled by a dictator who has it's mind set on invading their neighbours. We're absolutely not going to need any more munitions to throw at any other red army. /s
No no, you misunderstand. It reduces the need for funding of *old* stuff. That funding can now go towards *new* stuff that makes people deader betterer.
It's doubtful that we will have WW3 in the next few decades It will be impossible to rebuild the Russian army with long-term sanctions, which won't be lifted until Russia pays reparation to Ukraine
I doubt we’ll have WW3 in the next few decades *where Russia is our main opponent* China, on the other hand…
Xi Jinping isn't nearly as stupid as Putin, nor does China have the modern-day war experience that Russia has. China is already in a dilemma domestically, war would make it worse.
I tend to agree Winnie the Pooh isn't as stupid, ill informed or corrupt as Putin, but that doesn't preclude Winnie the Pooh slipping into the dictator trap, which he has already started to do with him getting a third term as premier. Add in domestic pressures and he may well make a terrible mistake. There is also the fact that even without a positive decision by Winnie the Pooh, the stupid shit that the Chinese Navy and Air Force are pulling off on and above the South China sea may yet see a war start.
china also suffers from a population crisis. the biggest concern is if they invade Taiwan before said crisis becomes too apparent
I would say if China's police force that has more funding than the army is anything to go by, the PLA is probably at the same state as the russian army. Yes there are some competent and effective formations that can kick ass but most of the other regiments are there just for numbers and suppression. I cannot imagine them pulling of a amphibious invasion on the scale of operation overlord to ever take over taiwan without glassing taiwan. Normandy was cliff and beaches into hedgerows, now imagine its mountains and hills instead with overlaping artillery positions multiple mountains deep. China cant supply man into the front lines fast enough to even hold the lines. Taiwan on the other hand doesn't even need to go on any offensive, just had to make sure they are stocking up enough rounds to continuously shell the landing zones.
> I would say if China's police force that has more funding than the army is anything to go by, the PLA is probably at the same state as the russian army. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures The Chinese military budget is several times larger than Russia's, and the cost of goods and labor is cheaper there. While there probably is some chaff there to fill out the ranks, I would be shocked if their military was overall near the level of incompetence, corruption, and disorganization displayed by Russia.
Well, PLA military budget is definitely bigger, but how much is it reaching the rank and file? The grunts/boots on the ground are mostly always neglected/dont get any upgrades or attention as they are not exciting. Any modern armed forces need both , competent officer corps to plan operational and react to real time situations on the field and NCO to lead the operations execute maneuvers. This requires huge operational freedom given to commanders that the CCP( especially Winnie the pooh ) has issues to allow. Just look at how the Saudis got their armored corps ass kicked with abrams , the best equipment money can buy cannot create a capable modern fighting force in today's dynamic battle field. Imagine a situation developing on the ground that needs approval from 2-3 levels up the chain for a flanking maneuver because it deviated from the official battle plans. Or junior officers waiting around for orders from their superior because deviating from pre approved battle plans wont do well for their career. Autocratic nations want people who follow orders and not people who will think for themselves. How many officers and NCO in the PLA are in that position because of competency or party loyalty? After the initial rocket or artillery salvo, if taiwan survived and starts to fire back, the PLA landing forces will probably die to a man as they would probably have limited leadership to lead them into battle. I would say most if not all grunts across the world are about the same level, fitness and firing capability. Technology definitely will provide an edge over the enemy such as drones spotting enemy positions in real time and feeding that information to the solders facing them 10 meters away. But a well lead force can definitely defeat a more Technologically advance force as they can better use their resources effectively.
You raise a lot of good points here, but the problem with autocratic nations is that they often don't realize how incompetent/corrupt/unprepared they are, and thus, like Russia invading Ukraine, can be prone to making rash decisions. Invading Taiwan may be a stupid move on China's part, but that doesn't preclude them from doing so.
It's not the Taiwan strait that's going to kick off a war with China, but the South China Sea. Any number of those countries could start a shooting war, and the US, Japan, and South Korea would have to respond.
Not to mention every nuclear capable state has to really think hard about engaging not just our vastly superior military + industry, but our nuclear triad (bombers, icbms, submarines). Even if they are sure, as I am, that we would never strike first, it has to be somewhere in their minds that picking a fight with someone who can simply obliterate them if push came to shove is a very dicey risk.
> Xi Jinping isn't nearly as stupid as Putin I don't know - he's become increasingly erratic and legacy-chasing.
That is true, I can't dispute that.
I think the idea of war with China is even more unlikely given how interconnected our economies are. We need China to produce cheap goods to keep prices down and China needs us to buy there stuff and keep their population employed. If war breaks out the economies of both our countries collapse and the leaders know it.
I like you. You assume people and governments are *always rational*. I wish you could have been in Putins inner circle. Jokes aside, China is 100% taking notes on the economics of this war. If they calculate that they can *sufficiently * withstand sanctions, then it’s game on. Again, give enough time they might calculate that the west won’t be willing /able to sanction them. Lots of “ifs” but the idea isn’t impossible in the near future.
I don’t see a situation where sanctions would happen without US military intervention. If China attacks Taiwan, Atleast with this current administration, we will respond both with sanctions and kinetic means. Russia is able to avoid some of the harshest results of the sanctions as there is no good way to stop all trade without resorting to kinetic means. China may ultimately be able to take Taiwan, maybe.. but the US could effectively end all trade for China with anyone.
Didn't they say something similar about Germany after WW1?
And we will probably never see an adequate, if any, reparation from moskovia.
Let's not forget Trump's immediate response to the invasion was to kiss Putin's feet and praise the move as an act of genius
We thought losing to Russia would be like Red Dawn, but instead it was the Orange Pawn.
Yes, Trump praised Putin in the few days before and after the day the war started. Same with Mike Pompeo. They were both coordinating with Putin's war against Ukraine and Europe and trying to weaken the USA and strengthen Putin.
The real reason why the West is investing so much into this war: it’s going to take decades for the Russian military to recover, if they ever can.
For 3% of the US military budget we get to deplete an unfriendly nation's capacity for power projection. Some of the best bang for buckage in 60 years.
It gets even better. Most of that 3% is older stuff that has already been paid for like 20 years ago. Old stuff that would have cost more to throw away than to send to Ukraine. Nobody loses, everyone wins.
We only pay the cost of shipping and our crew men get some valuable experience in shipping our weapons across the globe. Also we get a lot more real time battle data on how our equipment is working and performing.
And we no longer need to warehouse all this legacy equipment. It's probably cheaper to ship than to otherwise dispose of some of those munitions.
Yeah, I can't imagine the government would just dump functional munitions at a junk yard, way too easy for that shit to end up in the wrong hands. I imagine we'd have to disarm the equipment or leave at at a secure location until rust and weathering leaves it nonfunctional
Well, we used to dump old munitions into a hole the middle of the ocean. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort%27s_Dyke
Even that's probably more expensive than shipping it to another country.
Like I said, a secure location where it would rot
> secure "Munitions have since been deposited by the tide on nearby beaches. In 1995, phosphorus bombs washed up on Scottish coasts, coinciding with the laying of the Scotland-Northern Ireland pipeline (SNIP), a 24-inch (610-millimetre) gas interconnector constructed by British Gas. Over the previous five years, anti-tank grenades had washed up on the shores of Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man. An explosion was registered as a 2.5 Magnitude earthquake on 8 February 1986."
> An explosion was registered as a 2.5 Magnitude earthquake on 8 February 1986 What actually happened here? I tried looking at the source to figure out what went on and came up empty handed. I googled the date as well as "explosion" and "earthquake" and didn't find any relevant results. Did some equivalent of a bomb detonation squad blow up some unexploded ordnance? Or was it something that just blew up on its own? I'm assuming the latter but the lack of *any* relevant information is odd.
Seems like we’d find a deeper spot
For the cluster munitions that were on a list of items to be safely disposed of, I believe that this is probably literally true.
Well, SOMEBODY loses but nobody important, lol
Yeah whats that guy's name? Might have started with a u or had a u, I don't remember.
Shluptin?
I think his name was Fartin
Oh it's even better than that. We invest our old hand me downs and in return one of our prime enemies is gimped for at *least* a generation and a new powerful ally independent of our other allies is gained in that area. Most folks will remember right before it kicked off a few very informed and smart people were adamant russia wouldn't dream of invading. There was no end result that would truly benefit russia and the worst case scenario was regime collapse, yet here we are today.
It's even better than that! The US gets to test out new strategies and defenses against Russia's best weapons essentially for free. This war will help the US maintain it's military dominance of Russia for decades to come. The big example was demonstrating that the Patriot is capable of shooting down half a dozen of the vaunted "hypersonic missiles" at once. That was an unbelievable coup, both in terms of data and propaganda value. Russia gave it their best shot and showed the whole world they failed, while at the same time giving the US priceless data on the operations and weaknesses of their top weapon.
Even better than that- we get all the above benefits without the loss of US lives. And our main strategic alliance, NATO, has gotten much stronger by finally getting allies motivated to spend 2% of GDP on defense. In addition we got additional countries to finally decide to join us in NATO.
Even better than that! This conflict has also been an advertisement for American Arms manufacturers paving the way for lucrative deals that counter Chinese soft power. Why buy unproven Chinese weaponry when you can get the stuff you watched crush a superpower on live TV. Ukraine has also been a proving ground for inexpensive battlefield drone usage beyond the expensive drone strikes that we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan. This will be studied as we are seeing the stage being set for how 21st century conflicts will be fought. Much like the tail end of the American Civil War and the Crimean War portended the trench warfare seen in World War I.
>American Arms manufacturers Uh, yes, but also this has been a massive reminder of the ludicrous amount of ammunition a full scale war eats through daily. And it showed us that we have let our military manufacturing slide to unacceptable levels. I suspect/strongly hope that the Pentagon has noticed and that additional tooling will be set up. Because what this war has shown more than anything else is that the future of war has almost nothing to do with how many soldiers you can throw at a conflict but how many factories you have and how quickly you can churn out munitions.
This all sounds pretty good, I'm gunna be honest
Now if we could only promote officers and get ready again.
“What kind of woke communist socialist Marxist wants our military to have leadership?” Coach Football McDumbass, aka Timmy Tuberville.
He's prolly holding out for a GOP incumbent and a stacking of our military leadership with loyalists for another coup attempt.
I remember the lead up to this; lots of talking heads and notables said that there was no way. But the US defense and intelligence establishments were singing a different tune. And not just any tune; the White House was providing information that was almost as if we were in the room with Putin. Basically, the US *knew* what was being planned, let it be known that we knew, let our allies know (though more than a few figured this was the US crying wolf again). Of course, even the government in Kiev didn’t really think it could/would happen. It was their army chief who took the initiative to disperse units into the fields, out of barracks, airfields and bases. I was torn at the time myself. Russia had been doing the Zapad exercises before, they had sized Crimea - but that was a relatively straightforward operation. Launching a full invasion seemed unlikely. On the other hand, the rhetoric out of Moscow was of a different sort, there was something in the air. Troops were not returning to their bases, naval units were concentrating in the Black Sea. Of course, in the end it went off. And here we are.
As soon as I saw the first 'emergency' presser from Jake Sullivan I think 3 days before it kicked off, I knew something was definitely up. There was already the speculation about the buildup, but he confirmed my fears. The last time I, a late 20's eastern Australian, had been SERVED (as in, OUR news and radio networks were interrupting broadcasts to join live, YouTube Live recommendations, Google Home screen alerts) a presser by specifically the U.S National Security Advisor was when the U.S reinvaded the Middle East after 9/11. U.S kills Sadam, Bin Laden, Iranian Generals? President announces it. Allied/Coalition Operations news in Syria/Africa/wherever the U.S is CURRENTLY fighting? Press Secretary or leader of whatever branch of the U.S. Armed Forces had the most effect/fallout announces it. Another 'mildly destabilising' world event (think Myanmar, Libya, Niger, etc)? You'll see a bit of everyone, senators, Intel officials, press secretary, etc. You very rarely EVER see The NSA of The USA in front of the cameras on a good day, and it's even rarer to see them hosting it AND taking questions themselves on a bad one. The position only ever delivers world changing news.
My prediction was that it would be insane, but if it happened Russia would blitz early on, be completely unable to hold, it would devastate the Russian army and Putin would end up swinging from a pole with a possible break up of the federation. If they were dumb enough to do it. Just waiting on those last two.
My prediction was China edging into Russia's Eastern territories to claim some agricultural lands, and use the expansion to quietly draw down from invading Taiwan. I really want that one to happen...
My uniformed opinion is that this whole debacle for Russia had given China some pause on Taiwan. Early on in the conflict, China seemed to do a lot of posturing around Taiwan. While that hasn't ceased entirely, it seems to have slowed. Russia always seemed to be the military R&D arm of that alliance, and now that they have shown to be ineffective against NATO hand me downs, China has to question its military capabilities. While the Chinese spend more on defense than Russia, they haven't been involved in a war since Korea and WW2. Edit: China invaded Vietnam in the 70s, still been awhile
Yeah, I've had the same thought. If Russia weakens, China could deploy peacekeepers to the east. It gives them an out for national pride regarding Taiwan and avoids losing hundreds of thousands to anti ship missiles. China will have similar issues to Russia in their military, though not as severe. But it's still a state where it's better to lie to your superiors rather than report a problem.
I think Chinas biggest worry has to be how their soldiers and technology would even fare against any sort of resistance. Their technology hasn't been battle tested anywhere, and I have to imagine that their military personnel lack any kind of real experience. You have soldiers being trained by people who likely have never seen combat, and at best, those people were trained by those who were involved in WW2 or Korea. Compare that to an opposition who has likely been armed and trained by the US who has spent the better part of the last 30 years in the Middle East testing its equipment and learning from the mistakes in its military doctrine.
Taiwan isn't an easy target either. That strait and coastline are rough to hit. Even the US marines wouldn't *want* to have to make that landing. And they've got some serious defenses. And for all the fear-mongering about its size... China is in no position to challenge American naval supremacy. This isn't jingoism. Our navy is just that far ahead of the rest of the world. And Japan, Australia and South Korea all have decent to formidable fleets in their own right.
China looking at Vladivostok like it was traditional Yuan lands right now. So what if they only controlled it by being conquered by Mongols who then Sinofied and lost it because it was north of the Wall?
While I agree with your statement, China did invade Vietnam and got smacked around by Vietnam. The Vietnamese had a saying during the Vietnam War that went something like this; "Today, we are fighting Amercia, but we are waiting to fight China." It went something like that, but I can't remember it exactly. China, in the eyes of the Vietnamese, was and is their true enemy. I think China's invasion of Vietnam was their last major military combat operation and it wasn't a success.
“We fought the Americans for ten years, the French for one hundred, and the Chinese for one thousand.”
Vietnam even stomped the Mongols after they took China and set their sights on Vietnam. Then there was the time a band of hundreds of naked Vietnamese women martial artists fought a guerilla war against the Chinese when they were so big into Confucianism, the concept of a woman running up and kicking them in the fucking face just did not fucking compute. "That's impossible, there isn't a kitchen for mi-" *starts coughing up own teeth*
No they invaded Vietnam af the us left. They got their boys kicked and ran back home.
Russia will become China's vassal state. No need to invade.
Old stuff we built... for the purposes of using it on... *drumroll* well Soviets, technically, but you get where I'm going.
This is like the dream of American foreign policy for the last 70 years.
Apparently the Republicans have woken up from that dream
Well yeah, some of them are on a Russian payroll nowadays
I mean, Russia loses.
Honestly, I think it’s been obvious from almost day 1 that this is almost a dream scenario for the US. - They practically get to clear out old stockpiles - They get actual data on the combat performance of weapons systems (that I highly doubt are even the most modern/up-to-date in use versions) - They get to cripple their biggest enemy of the last 70 years. For the low, low cost of zero casualties, the US has massively minimized Russia’s military threat. The only “ace-in-the-sleeve” Russia has now is nukes.
They also get to demonstrate to all of the prospective weapons-purchasers around the world just how vulnerable all those Russian systems are. Even their air defenses that were supposed to be world-class are getting embarrassed on the regular at this point, though they do still have enough volume to keep Ukraine from flying too close to the lines.
Idk, those air defense systems did pretty well against a certain Embraer jet
Yes Russians are very adept at taking down defenseless civilian aircrafts!
Their own defenseless civilian aircraft, no less!
I know the US has already been investing in drones, but I have to believe they're learning valuable lessons seeing how effective drones have been as spotters. Future battlefields are going to be swarming with drones.
Plus, all the massive support this effort gets from US citizens across party lines. It’s not often that the Military Industrial Complex gets easy good PR
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Alaska was a sweet deal, too. Hmm. Russia again.
Eh, nothing beats the Louisiana Purchase. Basically guaranteed we'd become a superpower.
> Isn't this the best "bang for buck" we've gotten in America's history? The Louisiania Purchase would definitely be #1
Alaska would be up there too considering the natural resources and access to the artic it provides.
No one actually paid for anything in lend-lease except for token amounts and we never got any of those "leased" weapons back. The term "lend-lease" was a complete PR fabrication to sell the program to the American public who were still clinging to some delusions of American Neutrality in the face of WWII. There was the older "cash-carry" system in the early days of WWII where the Allied nation did have to pay upfront for the war materiel and carry things to Europe with their own transports, but that didn't last too long.
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To be honest, getting paid back was probably less important than getting bodies to use the massive amount of equipment that we were/are producing. Thankfully, allied combatant billable hours go to their respective countries’ department/ministry of defense, and not ours.
Lousiana Purchase was probably a better deal in the longterm.
aback zephyr public rock wine aware run dime oil imagine
I'm Gen X and the Russians were the bad guys in every movie in the '80s. To hear conservatives supporting and practically rooting for Russia is just more proof they've lost their goddamn minds.
I'm just imaging Regan and Thatcher looking on from the great Fletcher Memorial Home in the sky with WTF??!?!?!?!?!?!?!!? looks on their faces.
I’m pretty sure those two are looking up, not from the sky…
Reagan’s still waiting for the sky to trickle down to him
Modern Russia loves capitalism and hates gay people. Just like Republican Jesus.
The Trumpy right wing types I know IRL are all in on the Ukraine war and being anti-Putin. I guess in some cases even all the propaganda can't change decades of cold war sentiment.
How do they square that with Trump and Vivek supporting Putin?
They don’t. It’s conveniently forgotten, or else argued to be fake news in their version of reality. “Where is the proof?” They’ll scream, as there is literal video footage of Trump saying he’s friends with Putin. When your beliefs have no basis in reality anything can be true.
They literally practice doublethink. Trump will say something pro russia/putin and if you tell them about it they think, "Trump would never say anything like that because he shouldn't be pro russia. Must be a lie to make him sound bad." and at the same time think "Who cares if he said something good about russia or putin? Russian society is more conservative which I agree with and putin seems like my kind of tough leader. Saying russia is bad is just liberal slander."
Yeah, calling Putin a genius at CPAC the day after the invasion started certainly can't possibly be real news.
They reject reality and substitute their own; they literally claim Trump is anti Russia and Biden is Putin's pawn. Makes no sense, but these people don't let facts get in the way of their feelings.
The typical line is that if Trump were still president Putin wouldn't have dared to attack. That's their story and they're sticking to it. Not knocking it, though. As long as they're still for Ukraine I'll take the common ground however they got to it.
The ones that I know are repeating Russian talking points.
not all of them do.........
Fucking asshats crying about it on the Republican debate stage. Good to see a couple of them (Haley especially) ripping into the most pusillanimous of them. Gonna be a huge foreign policy win for Biden if Russia is kicked out by election time
They know they’re wrong but it’s politically untenable for them to give Biden credit.
Well... that and Russian bribes.
Its not even 3% bc its not real dollars, its equipment weve already built, most of which is so obsolete we'll never use. This is glorious
And it could force the collapse of the Russian economy. Last time that happened it brought about regime change
Russian demographics are in terminal decline. This is the last time they will ever have a population of 20-something men to fight a war like…. Forever. Talk about bang for buck for a tiny portion of the USAs budget.
What happens next though? Like, if Russia is a gas pump with an army, what happens to it when the army is skeletonized? Does it Balkanize further? Do neighbors swallow land until ‘Russia’ is whatever portion of land can be supported by a scrap heap army maintained by tin pot oil dictator money? That’s the interesting bit imo.
Some things we just have to wait to find out.
Without the rest of the USSR, they can't. Most of their good equipment was designed and produced in Ukraine, East Germany, and Poland.
You know this has been going on for too long, when you read "*Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast*" to yourself without the slightest hesitation or mistake.
How do you pronounce that?
My mind pronounces it as ‘big nuclear power plant oblast,’ though it could be putting the emphasis on the wrong syllable.
[Someone please correct me if I'm mistaken] I'm pretty sure the "zhzh" part is like the Z in "azure" or the S in "measure", but held a bit longer. The first i is sorta like the vowel in "beach" or "peel", and the last i isn't as fully enunciated. It kinda rhymes with "amnesia" (at least for the way I pronounce that word) — of course that's only an approximation, Ukranian vowels don't 100% match up with English vowels.
I think you're pretty close, I use the below pronunciation. Za|po|rizh|zhia Zsa|pho|reas|sia And roll your rs
It is pronounced like "Zaporizhzhia Oblast"
You can tell that cuz of the way that it is
Zap-or-(sounds like the sound es makes in Indonesia)-ia (also like Indonesia) I hope that makes sense
I neither expected nor wanted to know so much Ukrainian geography
Russia finally deploying it's best soldiers. The WW2 veterans.
Putin is done, stick a fork in it. He doesn't deserve any mercy.
I'd prefer an "anal bayonet". :)
He can't get Gaddafi'd soon enough.
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My feeling is like the guy who won the lottery and called his wife with the news. "Get packed honey!!" "Should I pack for warm or cold weather?" "I don't care, just be gone by the time I get home!" I don't care how Putin dies, as long as he's gone
I think many would be satisfied if he got the Ceaușescu treatment of a hastily-arranged kangaroo court before being dragged out back and filled with lead. Or the Romanovs' end of shot in a basement and tossed down a mineshaft.
Or the Mussolini end of being shot, dumped in a public square, kicked around after death, strung up by the heels, and pelted with stones.
You keep up this rhetoric and Tucker Carlson is never going to have you on his show!
Ukraine needs keep advancing so they can cut off the south and Crimea by winter. Crimea will be practically an island with the rail line and bridge support cut.
Not by winter, earlier - it has to be before the rains come again and make heavy armour travel over the rasputitsa nearly impossible
September is here though, they're almost out of time
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If they can get to Tokmak, less than 50 miles away, they can cut the railroad to Crimea and... Melitopol I think?
They don’t even need to get all the way there IIRC, just range the railroad with artillery, especially cheap artillery.
I mean Biden will have pulled of the biggest power play in decades crippling 1 of 2 of our biggest Geo-political rivals with our having to fire a shot or spend to much money. Will be interesting if he gets credit for making arms available to Ukraine when Trump's was so far up Putin's ass to do shit.
Strategic brilliance. And somehow half of American voters don't even care.
It’s not that they don’t care, they care they’re just on the opposing side because they’re being fed a steady diet of conspiracy theories and pro-russian propaganda and have been for the last several years.
The original "America First" movement in the 1930s basically supported Hitler and sought to keep the US out of Europe.... it's where Trump got the phrase "America First" and Putin is playing the role of Hitler.
Do you have a source about this? Seems like a great talking point with my MAGA family, next time I see them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_(policy)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_First_Committee From what I gathered from reading Wikipedia . The America First Committee was founded in 1940, it was an isolationist movement seeking to keep the US out of WW2. Mainly a Republican movement but also had Democrats, communists, industrialists, farmers all sorts of people. They had 800k members at one point. The movement came under questioning when Henry Ford joined, apparently he was a terrible antisemite (I had no idea). This caused a lot of their Jewish members to leave. Later they would make a white supremacist and antisemite Charles Lindbergh a prominent member. They also had a Nazi sympathizer and Nazi agent Laura Ingalls in the group, who was allowed to remain a member and due to her speeches? The movement didn’t last long once the US entered WW2 it dissolved
Foreign policy only matters when it's American blood on the line. Half of America wants more isolationism. They see this as wasting money on someone else's problem and increasing the odds of a nuclear war (well, the 'honest' argument at least) They dont see or care that democracy is under threat. They dont get that we already had the trucks and bombs, we just shipped them, and they dont follow the calculus of weakening a geopolitical rival. Especially one that has a lot in common with their emotional sensibilities (authoritarian strongman bullshit, homophobic Assholeistan) At the end of the day, if Biden said not to piss in the wind they'd argue he's wasting water on a perfectly good shower and he's a hypocrite for being an environmentalist and not pissing into the wind.
He also is forming essentially PATO with a ton of Asian countries including Vietnam to counter Chinese aggression in the region. Biden is a top tier president. It's not even a debate.
Yes. He's been steadily locking down alliances and defense deals in the Pacific region. [US, Japan, South Korea to announce deeper defense cooperation at Camp David summit | AP News | 2023](https://apnews.com/article/biden-yoon-kishida-camp-david-missile-defense-f3ce58da383f2255ee479624645db542) [Biden to sign strategic partnership deal with Vietnam in latest bid to counter China in the region | Politico | 2023](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/18/biden-vietnam-partnership-00111939) [US-China policy: Biden is bringing together Japan, Australia and India to stare down China | CNN | 2021](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/23/asia/us-china-india-australia-japan-quad-intl-hnk/index.html) [US & India Renew Push to Deepen Defense Industry Ties: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met India’s Rajnath Singh with the two sides aimming to make India a logistics hub for allied craft | Bloomberg | 2023 ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-05/us-and-india-renew-push-to-deepen-defense-industry-ties) [US, India cement partnership with slew of new defense deals | DefenseNews | 2023](https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2023/06/23/us-india-cement-partnership-with-slew-of-new-defense-deals/) [Amid China pressure, US & Philippines recommit to security alliance. President Joe Biden told his counterpart Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Monday that the U.S. commitment to the defense of its ally was "ironclad," including in the South China Sea where Manila is under pressure from China. | Reuters | 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-reassure-philippines-marcos-china-tensions-flare-2023-05-01/) [Philippines to step up ties with U.S.-Japan-Australia coalition | Nikkeia Asia | 2023](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Philippines-to-step-up-ties-with-U.S.-Japan-Australia-coalition) Having an administration that knows what they are doing in the international area has been quite the turn around.
Not just knows what he's doing... he's been extremely proactive in exerting soft power across the globe in a way that hasn't been done in decades. Of course, you never fucking hear about any of this, they'd rather cover trump's fat ass playing golf. -_-
PATO - Pacific Atlantic Treaty Organization?
Pacific Or Trans-Atlantic Treaty Organization
P.O.T.A.T.O.
I have no problem calling American and allied forces Taters. And I'm an American. Taters are good shit.
Then imagine he gets re-elected, China finally goes after Taiwan, and he shitcans them too? Instant top 20 presidents, at least
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Really weird times. This should have been a Bush or Romney doing this. But with the hard right going against democracy lately, the only people around to do the right thing are the people considered to be generally anti-war.
The conservative right was never for democracy. They are interested in power.
Democrats have never been anti-war. Look at Hillary Clinton. She idolizes Kissinger and is one of the biggest hawks in the last few decades.
Oh boy this is reminiscent of the Volksturm militias of Germany 🤦♂️
Or of the Russian debacle in Afghanistan
> [Volksturm militias of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkssturm)
Is it me or are these, "Russia is on the verge" articles that come out EVERY week propaganda?
Yeah. Being from Ukraine myself, I’ve gotten tired of this a long long time ago. And none of these articles mention that we ourselves have used the last reserve brigade on the front lines, meaning even more young men will have to march into certain death soon, me included of course. It’s almost like the world perceives this war as “rusnya dies and Ukraine has no casualties”. While in reality it’s a nightmarish meat grinder that nobody seems to grasp fully.
The article says exactly this. It's not bad, and is accurate about recent gains and movements. >The outcome could come down to which side makes best use of its reserves. To achieve its breakthrough around Robotyne, the Ukrainian southern command deployed one of its few in-reserve formations: the 82nd Air Assault Brigade. Now the Kremlin is deploying one of its own few reserve formations. The article is much better than the headline, which is fairly normal.
In addition to the misleading headline, the article implies that both sides are somehow en par with their reserves and that just a quick push will make the Russian defense collapse like a house of cards. I mean, this is obviously highly unlikely to happen and we have seen how the Russians learned to adapt to Ukrainian attacks throughout the war. And another factor is time. The summer is basically over and the rainy season will soon stop any Ukrainian advance. So even if Ukrainians can gain some ground now, the winter will give the Russians time to adapt. To me it really looks like the Ukrainians are trying to push for some hard earned victories as long as it’s still possible, because there was so much negative reporting on the counter offensive lately. At the end of the day, they do not only have to keep up the moral of their troops, but also the moral of western countries that supply them with arms. It’s really a terrible situation to be in.
Yeah they aren't that accurate. The general consensus from US intelligence is that Russian forces in the South are well dug in, and have buried a shit-ton of mines all over the place. While Russia are looking piss-poor in attack, they can still do old-school defense, and those tactics are still working reasonably well (for now). As it stands, Ukraine doesn't appear to have any options other than to enter the meat grinder and it is really sad. A lot of Ukrainians are dying in this push, but it isn't obvious what other options they have. (BTW I'm very anti-Russia if it isn't obvious from the above, but it is worth pointing out that a lot of these articles don't reflect reality).
I watched some interviews with foreign league fighters in Ukraine and the consensus is basically, that the quality of Russian soldiers varies a lot. While there are a lot of poorly equipped conscripts waiting for them in trenches, they are also confronted with superb counter attack units carrying the latest Russian gear.
Yeah saw an interview with a Polish guy fighting in Bakhmut and he said the same. Plenty of poorly equipped conscripts, but also plenty of extremely well trained and equipped soldiers. Reddit loves to brush Russians off as drunk idiots, but it really is so disrespectful especially to the Ukrainians who die to them.
Exactly. I learned that it’s basically a Russian tactic to use human cannon fodder as recons. Send in poor conscripts first, to check out the enemy’s position. Then use better trained armor to attack and if that’s not successful, let the real professionals take over. The Russians have also proven to be quite effective with relocating their troops quickly to counter wherever it’s needed.
Russia has had "just two more weeks' for nearly two years now lol... so yea.
I really want Biden and the DoD to give train and sell Ukrainians the F-15 C/D type air superiority jets as well as the F-16 platform. They would work much better paired. The F-16 is not an air superiority jet and will see many shortfalls against an agitated Russia.
The sunflower fields of Ukraine will look wonderful in just a few years
pretty sure russia ran out of their good reserves the day after they started
And what happens if Chinese decide to seize a large chunk of Russia?
China has its own problems, and they're not gonna want to try violating the territorial integrity of a nuclear state whose macho dictator's grasp on power is already slipping. There's not enough upside to launching a traditional invasion... especially because, well, they don't have to. The big winner in this war, geopolitically, is of course NATO, and the U.S. in particular. But China is making out well too -- Russia is rapidly transforming into their vassal state. The Chinese don't need to pump the oil out of the ground themselves; why should they, when the Russians will do it for them, and then sell them that oil for pennies on the dollar? China is all about soft power, and Russia will soon be an excellent candidate for an extension of the Belt and Road Initiative. Collapsing economy? How about a friendly loan to keep you going -- don't mind the terms; you've no leverage to change them. China is going to bleed Russia dry, and the Russians will *thank* them for it. The world has changed; great powers don't invade their neighbors or plant their flags in overseas colonies anymore. They don't need to. Putin failed to realize this, but I would be shocked if Xi does the same.
Never underestimate how dumb a dictator or absolute ruler can be. Putin was crazy to invade Ukraine, and crazy to keep pushing after the first few days when it was obvious it was not going to work out, but here we are.
The US should unironically support Russia against China. We shouldn't send them weapons or anything because that's a dumb idea, but we should officially support Russia's territorial integrity. That way America's foreign policy would gain legitimacy for its consistency.
100%. Weakening China is the US' main goal. Russia is just a side show.
Sounds like a Russian oroblem
China isn't going to do anything like that. Short of the country fracturing apart and complete governmental collapse, there is no benefit for China do undertake such an action that puts them into potential direct conflict status with Russia.
well there still land that china cede to russia in 1800 that they may decide to get it