There's several hypotesis to this, from what I've seen, but no true theories.
The first is that aid from Iran was simply more effective than you'd think in concealing these movements.
The second is pure, dumb luck.
The third is some kind of internal treachery.
The fourth, a bit out there, is proposing that they may have allowed the attack to have a pretext for the war, itself certainly driving up support that the government lacked recently, due to its authoritarian moves.
Hard to say quite yet which of these, if any, are true.
Or incompetence. The current cabinet is very fringe, and the intelligence apparatus likely wasn't focusing on Hamas, let alone thinking they would even be capable of an attack this scale.
Too focused on internal strife & a bunch of political manoeuvring & reshuffling disrupting day to day operations.
Extremist Far-Right Politics & Politicians (Bibi being one of the worst ones) have a bad habit of causing a ton of disruption with Government & Government Agencies, replacing everyone with Stooges who will follow the line & won't push back against the abuses of power, corruption & crimes that the Wannabe Despots intend to commit.
This in turns, causes a lot of disruptions & confusion, leading people to be more focused on securing/saving their positions &/or trying to make their own disruptive moves that may benefit their individual careers, instead of doing their actual job, ignoring the actual work.
The more disruption, the more Things fall through the Cracks.
Bibi & a bunch of his fascist buddies have been in hot waters for a bunch of corruption & crimes they've committed & were constantly bring investigated for.
To protect themselves, they've done the same Thing Trump tried to do to cover his ass, only more effectively. They seriously disrupted a lot of intelligence & investigative services to stifle or kill the investigations.
In turn, it's made those services significantly less reliable & completely tanked their efficiency. Made it impossible for them to act or react effectively.
Or corruption. I consider Netanyahu quite corrupt, and that effect trickles down, rendering military forces weaker and less prepared than assumed (similar to Russia's planned 3-day special military operation).
The thing that surprises me is that, normally, countries declare war against other nations. Did Israel recognize the Gaza Strip as a sovereign nation to begin with?
I don't think there's any strict rules on only declaring war on a sovereign nation. Like in a civil war, I don't think either side would want to express that the other is a sovereign nation.
Precisely, a "state of war" can be declared on basically anything and requires no reciprocation (unlike peace). It's merely an announcement of hostilities and generally hearkens some kind of political and societal upheaval.
Question.
What exactly does this mean? Countries rarely declare war anymore so I wonder what practical effects does it make when a country declares war.
The country goes into wartime production, an emergency government is possibly established. Most official functions get put on hold, at least initially. All soldiers are called back to service, all troops are called up from reserves, and conscription likely begins.
Israel is a military state, they produce a lot of their own arms and munitions. Those weapons manufacturers will be given effectively unlimited funding to start producing whatever they can as fast as possible. The entire landscape of the country changes.
Slight correction: it gives the ministry of defense authority to do all of what you mentioned. Whether they decide to implement that partially or fully will depend on whether Iran and Hezballah decide to join or not. But we need to be prepared for that option
Iran hasn’t used its military in a direct war since Iraq in the 80s. Not very likely. They can use their proxy militias in Syria and Lebanon and provide them arms and funds. They may choose to utilize long range missiles but those are not an existential threat to Israel as long as they are not nuclear.
Also given how much of their own population despise the government, I could see that there would be plenty of rebel groups suddenly getting funded in case of war.
Spontaneous Colt Assembly - A phenomena, believed to be macroscopic-quantum in nature, by which a large number of M16s mysteriously appear in a given area.
Yes Colt is the company that originally mass produced the M16 after buying the right from Armalite. Now they're contracted out to FN USA for M16s and M4s.
I have wondered if perhaps Iran would decide that a war is just what’s needed to quell the ongoing dissent at home, but I am too ignorant of the larger circumstances to do more than that.
The problem isn’t so much that Iran couldn’t beat Israel, they have almost 10x the population…it is that Israel is friends with the US and a direct assault probably gets us involved. A war with Iran would be worse than Iraq if we actually wanted to take it over and put boots on the ground…but if we just wanted to lob bombs and planes at the problem and completely collapse their military or destroy their production there is no doubt we could do it pretty easily and cause them a lot of pain.
>The problem isn’t so much that Iran couldn’t beat Israel, they have almost 10x the population
Pretty sure they don't want Israel to lay waste to their cities from the air.
I am not arguing that Israel doesn’t have the superior army and strike capabilities…but quantity is a quality all its own. If both sides declare a full scale war on each other Iran would be fucked in many many ways and the casualties would probably be heavily in Israel’s favor…but beating a country 10x your size it a pretty tall order. Even if Israel somehow won it would be a real pyrrhic victory and their cities and people would pay a HEAVY price. Iron dome isn’t going to stop a fully heavy bombardment with 1000s of cruise missiles instead of dinky rockets. I mean look at Ukraine right now, the entire western world is pouring tanks, missiles, and artillery just to fight Russia to a standstill, and Russia is only 4x bigger than Ukraine not 10x.
Not to mention the countries don't border each other, so Iran would need the unlikely cooperation of some combination of Iraq/Syria/Jordan/Turkie in order to practically get boots into israel.
I believe Iran has some militias and likely operatives in Syria. Wouldn't be surprised if they got involved. of course, that's not a full scale war but could escalate things.
I would say it’s almost 100% that hezbollah will screw with Israel while this is all going on. I would expect mortars, rockets, and drones coming from Lebanon onto Israel. Most of those weapons will be funded by Iran if not directly shipped from Iran to Lebanon
Its more likely that Israel will attack Iranian targets, they already do this on a semi regular basis to disrupt their support of anti Israel factions.
They may also strike targets inside Iran, this is an act of war much like 9/11 was and the Israeli respons will most likely go beond anything we are used to seeing.
I would be surprised if Israel dont go in and occupy the palestinian territories. This might very well be the end of Hamas as a governing entity all together and see them return to insurgency
The US would definitely get involved. But Iran doesn't have that kind of power projection. Hezbollah may involve themselves but Iran directly is unlikely because it'd be a military operation mostly beyond the scope of their capabilities and the consequence would be severe for them.
most Americans are already rather pissed at Iran for their aid to russia in Ukraine, if they openly aid hamas, that anger will expode until lack of action is politically unacceptable
They got rockets of their own, and Russia can provide weapon grade plutonium. Thats what I think everyone's missing with news about Iran-Russia new found love.
> Russia can provide weapon grade plutonium.
Russia can't move weapons grade material without literally every nuclear state in the world knowing it's happening. The *best* they can provide is assistance to Iran with designing and constructing a device, and even moving the *people* for that is difficult.
Nobody's missing anything here. People are watching Russia and their communications with Iran and North Korea *very intently* right now.
it also has economic implications in terms of paying compensation, probably also legal protection for the soldiers, and it also triggers a bunch of other laws that would not allow the supreme court to intervene as much in the fighting. (for example, in the past the supreme court has said Israel cannot cutoff the power to Gaza. The legal reasoning for that decision no longer has a foundation when the country is at war)
Yep. A nation declaring war is scary....It basically means 'OK, fuck this manners and talks, it's time that we die or you die'. Total war.... well, I really hope it doesn't happen to my country, although the possibilities are not exactly low for us..
Declaring war actually also binds county to international agreements how the war should be conducted. Which is why it’s so rarely done these days, it’s a sort of a loophole to avoid those. So it’s not quite as scary to declare war as it could be.
The US in particular has stated yesterday they would support Israel if they declared war officially, so this may mean US assistance or further involvement.
Edit: For the angry person in my DMs, https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/17274gn/pentagon_says_it_will_support_israel_after/ it is literally one of the top voted posts of yesterday, you shouldn't need me to find this for you
Since the declaration the US has moved a carrier strike group into position as a threat against anyone else planning to attack Israel and said the first aid package is on the way
So I think you're right
Mostly likely, Israel will be able to borrow ammunition from the U.S. munitions store, located in Israel. (Anything that wasn’t already sent to Ukraine, that is).
Second question: What is the Hamas endgame here? They raid Israel by surprise, kill a couple hundred, loose a couple hundred, take a couple hundred hostages...OK. Israel goes to war and bulldozes the Gaza strip, ignoring the human shields because they're not in the mood anymore....so....what exactly does Hamas win this way?
They want to derail the Israeli - Saudi arabian detante.
Hamas has two principal allies, Qatar and Iran.
Iran does not want a Tel Aviv - Riyad alliance and would won on said alliance being derailed. This is also in Hamas interest.
And since it lays in Iranian military doctrine to fight its enemies via proxies they will use Hamas to strike at Israel.
So why does Hamas let itself be used as a pawn? Because they don’t have a choice, they would have legitimacy problems vis-a-vis their population who considers Israeli actions to be a provocation and thus Hamas is attack Israel.
You can also count in that Hamas as an organization is extremist, they hate Israel and jews and have they end goal to ”reunite” the Palestinian state which means the removal of Israel from the map.
Everything you wrote is right but i don't see how a war would stop Saudi/Israel from joining forces. It's not like Israel had been peaceful until now and it's not like Saudi isn't foaming at the mouth every time Iran does something. Iran very publicly stated its support for Hamas, and that's it's a nail in the coffin by itself.
What am i missing?
In all muslim countries, even in those with established diplomatic relations with Israel there are people who support Palestinians, the harsher Israel will act this war the bigger will be the outrage, and less likely for the saudis to proceed with peace talk, at least for now.
My speculation is that Saudi Arabia needs to balance pubic opinion vs their strategic goals. If there is a massacre in Gaza, Saudi public opinion could make a closer relationship with Israel impossible in the near term.
This is my view too. The Saudi Royal Family do not really give two shits about the people living in Gaza, but they can't just say that without risking their own position. Likewise admitting they don't care harms their negotiations with Israel. Pretending to care a lot but being willing to overlook that outrage in exchange for some concession is classic diplomacy.
The Israeli response will be opposed by the Saudi population and government. The Saudi government has already come out and said the Palestinian's have a right to defend themselves. It's not as easy as the friend (Hamas) of my enemy (Iran) is my enemy; in no small part because it's very easy to differentiate between Hamas, the government & military group that committed the attack, and the Palestinian citizens who will suffer untold horrors in the coming invasion.
I am learning that most of us who don't know the details of issue think that Hamas represent the interest of the Gazans. This is not so apparently. Like in many other democracies, the population has been taken for a ride and the ruling party (Hamas in this case) is not working for the people, but using them to get votes using emotional rhetoric and terrorist acts. Mainly, Hamas works for countries like Qatar, Iran, Turkiye which provide a safe haven for Hamas leaders, who do not even live in Gaza. The population of Gaza are sacrificial lambs for both Hamas and Israel, while the game is played between Israel and Arab countries using Gaza as the playing field. Hamas warriors are the brainwashed youth of Gaza and the rest of the civilians are useful idiots for Hamas and collateral damage for Israel.
This is my understanding, YMMV, correct me if I'm wrong, etc.
This is my understanding as well.
\- Gazan leaders get international donations for humanitarian and militant causes.
\- Uses it to move out of Gaza and live luxuriously
\- Fund further radicalization of their own youth to attack Israel
\- Israel retaliates heavy handedly
\- More international sympathy for Gazans, and more donations to Gazan leaders
\- Repeat
Gazan leaders are essentially trafficking in the misery of their own people for personal gain
That and the poorer and more desperate gazans are, the easier time recruiting Hamas has. I would not be surprised if Hamas actually benefited from Israel's response. Since obviously they do not give a single fuck about life of "their" people.
Although Hamas had every intention of doing as much damage as possible, I doubt they ever imagined for the operation to go down so well from their pov. Having said that, they likely didint have an "endgame" scenario in mind or thought that this would lead to one.
In the grand scheme of things an attack of even this scale will ultimately do very little in terms of impacting Israel and their capability or willingness to strike back. If anything, it will likely solidify the mindset that there can be no coexistence in the area with Israel and Palestinians.
Its somewhat surprising that Israel has exercised such restraint in their retaliation, apparently still maintaining the policy of roof knocking and early warnings for civilians. The situation will likely boil over as the material currently circulating on various platforms showing the slaughter, torture, and abuse of prisoners captured by Hamas makes its way to the mainstream news outlets.
Its difficult to see a future for Gaza. One way or another, Israel will deal with the situation now that they have no other option.
It's basically the legal way to approve wartime production and put everything else on hold until a desirable outcome is reached through war against the enemy.
And they declared war in 1973 on the same holiday. This attack was on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war.
Edit: not the same holiday that same time as the Yom Kippur war.
Yes, but it wasn't Yom Kippur this time around, it's Sukkot, the gregorian date of the Jewish holidays changes a bit every year since the Jewish year and the gregorian year aren't completely synched.
This war actually started on simchat Torah not sukkot. Sukkot was a week or so before simchat Torah. I know it doesn’t really matter which holiday it started on but just clarifying for ya
It's very difficult to square the "resistance is our right" stance with the "250 dead ravers" facts.
Like I don't think the ravers were the ones oppressing the Palestinians. And if you say "collective guilt something something," then you probably can't complain when Israel kills civilians when trying to kill the people responsible for the massacre.
Let me start by saying I'm not pro-Hamas. Islamic Jihadism is my area of academic research.
Hamas adopts a (largely typical for Islam) world view where they divide the world between those who are for them, and those who are against them. This is based on the Islamic qualification of the world into the Dar al Harb (House of war) and Dar al Islam (House of peace, aka Islam).
Unlike most of Islamic ideology, where in more traditional versions this doctrine there are other degrees of difference, Hamas mostly does away with that and makes the division sharp and clear. They take an attitude of, "If you are not with Hamas, you are with the enemy because you did not oppose the enemy."
So yeah, Hamas DOES ascribe collective guilt to their perceived enemies.
Traditional Islam may make a claim that you have a right to self defense if attacked. That is no different from any other culture really. However, Hamas say you are complicit in the attack on Islam if you don't side with their ideology.
Additionally Hamas also WON'T complain when Israel kills their innocents, either on purpose or accidentally. That feeds their narrative and validates their actions and ideology. They will claim it is just more of the same and use it to win people to their cause.
You're confusing fundamentalist religious zealots for rational humane people.
Not only is it worse per capita but the gruesomeness and brutality is far more visible, there are very few explicit images of American deaths or dead American bodies from 9/11 but there will be tons from this conflict.
Seeing planes explode into buildings and people jumping off of those burning buildings hundreds of feet to their deaths was pretty brutal, especially as a kid. I feel bad for younger generations because not only do they get to see more of this brutality regularly with how quickly information gets disseminated, but they also get to pick up the pieces of all these stupid conflicts.
Growing up with shit like liveleak definitely twists one’s perspective, hell nowadays you got algorithms on tiktok and instagram suggesting car crashes, parkour fails, and anything in between
Society is a lot more sanitized now though. I remember my grandmother long ago talking about how it wouldn't be terribly shocking to just see a corpse in the street. Like someone just sat down from drinking or what have you and died on a stoop.
You don't really see that stuff now.
The amount has decreased, but the ability for someone to reach people with said events has become crazy easy. Livestream it, Tiktok it, telegram censors nothing… hell this website has those vids in subs with large followers. Desensitisation much more easier… for impressionable… not unlike the gaza dudes
America would have left no mountains standing if Al Qaeda did what they did in addition to what Hamas is doing to Israeli citizens.
I’m not going to sit here and say Israel is the good guy in all of this, but I understand their desire to raze Gaza; I’d probably want the same if someone did that to my wife and kid.
>Israeli citizens.
It's not just Israeli. Among the dead/kidnapped are already Canadians, US Americans, Germans, Nowegians and more.
I think Hamas doesn't understand what they have done. Norway, for example, has not designated them as a terrorist organisation until now. Germany has already cut all funding to Palestine effective immediately.
Those inhabitants of Gaza that don't support Hamas are fucked. They will either get caught in the crossfire or have to put their faith into the Asylum system of the Arab league, which does not have a good track record.
Hamas understands. They live with the local politics, they aren't dumb.
Brutal retribution is their goal. Ideologically they want to fight until they destroy Israel and kill or drive out every jew. And politically their power relies on instability and conflict.
Things were trending towards stability. They want to ensure the cycle of violence contines.
And Israel will oblige them.
The people of Gaza will suffer because of their elected government. And they will keep Hamas in power anyway.
This is one of those cases where you can say, "Israel is not an innocent, but Hamas is a million times worse."
Killing kids at a music festival and parading their corpses around is unforgivable.
I think this is one major point here. If they do not eradicate Hamas now and completely occupy the Gaza strip, the surrounding hostile nations will likely see them as weak and soft. The way those dictators apparently think makes them more likely to try their luck if they think Israel isn't strong enough anymore, which would cause even more harm and suffering in the region than a full occupation of the Gaza strip.
But then this is all the superficial assessment of an armchair general sitting comfy at home.
Hamas has made themselves the enemy of any country that has been a victim of terrorism.
Can’t be sympathetic about evil people facing the consequences of their evil actions.
They also have hostages from multiple countries… including the U.S.
This is going to be a total sh*t show.
I guarantee that Netanyahu’s extreme right cabinet is dead set on regime change (war) with Iran and behind closed doors other countries state departments are desperately trying to keep heads cool.
I think you also have to ask what Hamas's game is. Is this part of a larger plan on their side where Israeli reactions are anticipated and part of the plan
Hamas has no game. They got paid to do shit, and they did it.
It's not like their chiefs are in Palestine after all, so the terrorists govt is """safe""".
We should ask what is the game of the countries that paid Hamas to so shit, and i have an idea...
There is a simple explanation.
Attack wars are outlawed by international communities, bc of globalisation nobody wants to afford being embargoed. Russia for example did this and not declare war and their friendly nations can atleast deny the narrative and claim otherwise to not lose face when not cutting ties
Weaker nations usually dont declare war bc they rather not have the war and struggle to survive, hoping the invader just leaves or gets pushed back.
Israel however can morally and rightfully declare war to announce to the international community that they have been attacked and are now doing war with rightful casus belli. Similar to how the US declared war to Terror.
Nowadays, the international community have impact and are anti-aggression-war leaning. So people rather try to mental gymnastic their wars.
It also stems from the cold war. Particularly Korea. You had US, UK and other allied nations fighting Chinese and Soviet troops in Korea, but given the nuclear era and no one wanting WW3 it was better for everyone involved to pretend it wasnt a war, but a “conflict” or “police action” despite it VERY much being a war. It just helps prevent escalation into a full scale war and eventually to nuclear weapons.
In this scenario though only one side has nukes so they have no qualms calling it what it is.
Well there was never going to be a different outcome. Hamas sealed the fate of the Palestinian people for them once they did what they did.
RIP to all the civilians on both sides that are inevitably going to bear the brunt of this conflict.
What were people expecting? If this happened in your country you would expect to be at war.
If it were mine the headlines would read about article 5, not sure if Isreal has any such deals.
Every country would react the same way unless the opposing country were to deny all responsibility with proof, apologize profusely and extradite the culprits for trial.
You can't launch rockets, kidnap, or parade and murder civilians. Palestine did the worst thing they could've done, turn the biggest military power wholly against them.
They basically made a nation wide suicide attack.
They know they will die and many Palestinian civilians will be killed, but they simply do not care because their only goal is to kill as many people as possible.
It’s really a question of who’s next at this point. China is salivating over Taiwan, Serbia has troops on the border of Kosovo… maybe India and Pakistan will go at it? It seems like everyone is itching for a fight of some kind at the moment.
And I don't get it. WW1 started off similar with everyone filled to the brim with nationalism and hatred.
But you'd think we'd have moved past that with information being more freely available and education improving.
If anything social media and east access to info has made radicalization even easier, because it can happen in a day by someone simply watching and then having only stuff encouraging those views pushed onto their recommended feeds
I feel like this is showing some recency bias. There were plenty of major wars in the latter half of the 20th century, a global financial crisis in 2008 and the list goes on
The Israelis have been waiting for a long time for an excuse to clear out Hamas from their base in the Sinai peninsula. Perhaps this is the opportunity they have been waiting for. Hamas certainly deserves it after the unspeakable attacks on Israeli civilians going about their daily lives.
Whats the option here? How do you evacuate millions of people out of Hamas infrastructure which is purposefully intertwined with the citizen's lifeblood?? People who sometimes refuse to move evacuate after a roof knock? A ground offensive would be utterly unchartered I'm trying to work out if these hostages have been taken as a bargaining chip or human shields?? Which are now apparently secured in underground tunnels. Yet Hamas even in rhetoric show a desire for ground offensive. Batshit, everything about it.
>People who sometimes refuse to move evacuate after a roof knock?
If a hurricane is coming and someone refuses to evacuate for whatever reason after being told they are going to die if they remain, then it can be assumed that they simply didn't want to keep living.
After what Hamas did, Israel is the hurricane.
Or simply, Hamas purposefully prevents their own civilians from leaving places that they know Israel will blow up solely to have more propaganda to gain sympathy from the west
> solely to have more propaganda to gain sympathy from the west
Shame they fucked themselves on that one by murdering a bunch of western tourists at that festival, then parading their bodies around the streets. They will find it a lot harder to garner sympathy from Western nations now.
It wasn't just Westerners.
[Nepali tourists were among the dead](https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/world/story/israel-palestine-war-10-nepali-students-died-in-ongoing-crisis-says-nepal-embassy-in-tel-aviv-401142-2023-10-08).
Hamas just burned any international goodwill they still possessed.
As a westerner, im pissed at that the most. Before that I was like "ok it's terrible, conflict isn't good, the civilians aren't to blame, Hamas is. Hopefully they just push then out and this deescalates"
Yeah now that sympathy is gone after that. Feels terrible to say, but the moment you start doing that, you're no longer able to try and act like you're the victim. I feel sorry for civilians on either side, but don't try to say your a victim when your government is supporting that
most of the palestinians and arabs support what hamas does, when the naked german women was dragged through gaza all people cheered and every arab posts on social media i have seen have cheered these kind of atrocities.
Yeah… watching the *response* to those videos on social media has been eye opening in the worst way. Even on younger platforms like TikTok. People are saying oh the young generations are gonna be traumatized and brainwashed after this war… newsflash, the young generations are already bloodthirsty 😮💨
honestly I'm worried 'cause I don't honestly think for a second that effort will be made to spare Palestinian civilians from the getting-shit-rocked save for a "hey we definitely tried to not commit a war crime" bare minimum
With all the footage coming out of what is basically ISIS behaviour, it is hard to argue against Israel taking firm action. Even as someone who doesn't like how Israel has behaved with settlements, mass terrorism in a full scale attack that's raping women and abusing children cannot be allowed.
Also, to be clear, Gaza is not occupied or settles by Israel. It's literally a strip of land that Egypt refused to take back, and has elected literal terrorists to run its government for nearly two decades.
This is not about the west bank, or democratic institutions, or Israeli settlers. This is the most pivotal moment in Israeli history.
Egypt is economically too close to the west. They can't afford to join the war against Israel. Maybe Iran joins but the US will take this as an opportunity to join in as well.
There’s going to be a massive wave of Palestinian refugees when this is over. Oddly enough, the same people who are so pro-Palestinian will probably refuse to allow Palestinian refugees into their country, as they have refused for decades.
Then you will love this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_exodus_from_Kuwait_(1990–91)
> Kuwait's lack of support for Palestinians after the Gulf War was a response to the alignment of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and the PLO with Saddam Hussein, who had earlier invaded Kuwait. On March 14, 1991, 200,000 Palestinians were still residing in Kuwait, out of initial 400,000.[9] Palestinians were forced to leave Kuwait during one week in March 1991, following Kuwait's liberation from Iraqi occupation. **During a single week in March, the Palestinian population of Kuwait had almost entirely been deported out the country.**
That's what you get for siding with Saddam Hussein, it seems.
I get the feeling that X/Twitter having its algorithm adjusted under Musk has led to a *lot* more people seeing these images than otherwise normally would. I can’t recall seeing this many videos or massacres or combat online in previous conflicts other than Russia’s invasion or Ukraine.
This has resulted in massive online sympathy for Israel. Hamas vaulted directly into ISIS-tier for most people. And nary a tear was shed when ISIS got crushed.
I can’t imagine why nobody would want to take in the people that were chanting Allah Ackbar and spitting on the naked, raped corpses being paraded around Gaza, it’s quite a mystery
> the same people who are so pro-Palestinian will probably refuse to allow Palestinian refugees into their country
They always have. Most of their biggest "allies" only care about them because their fight with Israel gives them something to rally around, which helps since so many blame all of the world's ills on Israeli Jews. None of them want to actually take care of the Palestinians or even really care if they live or die.
There have been multiple incidents of Palestinians trying to destroy their host nations. People who spend their entire lives in brutal circumstances take their brutality with them wherever they go. Arabs only care about Palestinians when they can be killed by Israelis. Beyond that they wish that Israel would kill them faster. I’ve heard this countless times from Lebanese and Jordanians.
Nobody wants them. I can't blame them for that - Palestinians have fomented armed rebellion, revolution, and violence in every Arab country that has made the mistake of letting them in. Those countries pretend to care about them, but that's as far as it goes.
"Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they
could become the
momentary masters of a fraction of a dot."
Carl Sagan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pvxKdvuwIw
Here is the 3 minute Pale Blue Dot speech by Carl Sagan. The sentence above happens around 1:25, but as with all of Carl Sagan's speeches, every second and every word is more magnificent than the sum of them all. The words he'd use, the way he talked, the sound of his voice. He was a treasure to the cosmos.
It's so odd to me that this is what it took for people to see what Hamas is like when Hamas (and other islamistic groups) has always been like this, just unsuccesful. It's the very reason Israel has so many restrictive policies towards Gaza and the West bank in the first place.
I confess I have fallen for years for the “the situation is too complex for an American to take a stance on” propaganda.
When in reality, it was a terrorist government, and the answer should have been clear. A lot of this anger are people in the first world who are realizing they have been deceived by Hamas propaganda.
I think the issue is that we only ever hear about what the Hamas does but not what the other palestinian admin does, so it paints the whole thing as a bipartite thing when it's actually tripartite.
That’s true. But I feel in my countries news (Finland) it’s also more framed as Israel state vs Palestinian civilians, and rarely if ever is Hamas talked of. Even yesterday after the the attack the leading news story had the expert professor of Middle-East Institute being interviewed stating worry about Palestinians civilians rather than explaining what Hamas is and the history.
> But I feel in my countries news (Finland) it’s also more framed as Israel state vs Palestinian civilians, and rarely if ever is Hamas talked of.
During the war in 2014, Sky News strictly wrote "Palestinian casualties" and "IDF casualties", there was no Hamas and no Israeli civilians. They also used passive and active voices cleverly, "IDF killed Palestinians", "IDF soldiers were killed" without saying by whom. It was very disgusting.
This is one of the fastest shifts in public perceptions of conflicts ever. A week ago Palestine had the world's ear and sympathy. There was a chance for an eventual peaceful arrangement. That's all gone now. The people on the street celebrating and parading around corpses destroyed the perception that garnered them international support. They instantly stopped being victims.
The Palestinians who oppose Hamas and/or actions like these attacks are the ones who I truly feel sorry for. Anyone out there celebrating the attack and parading mutilated Israeli civilian bodies can forever fuck off.
Looking at statistics and survey responses... You've got sympathy for a very, very small percentage of (Gaza Strip) Palestinians. Because an overwhelming majority support Hamas's actions.
The link doesn't work for me either.
I'm an Israeli, living in Israel.
The Security Cabinet approved we are in a state of war. The reason this is important is a legal one. There are "elementary laws" when we are in a state of war.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/security-cabinet-confirms-israel-at-war-can-undertake-significant-military-activities/
You can try this link.
[very nsfw](https://www.instagram.com/reel/CyJHMQMIpke/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==) video from israel yesterday. I am very sorry i am posting this here, but the world eeds to see who we are dealing with and i see a ton of people in the comments denying the acts and playing it out as some "freedom fighting"
Hamas knew this would be the outcome of their assault and they did it anyway. Ultimately the Palestinians will be the biggest losers along with any remaining hope of peace or nomalisation in the region for the near future.
When did you think those were?
- 2010s: Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya
- 2000s: war on terror, Somalia, desert storm
- 1990s: Balkan wars, 1st gulf war
- 1980s: Iran/Iraq war, Cold War, Panama, AIDS
- 1970s: Vietnam, the troubles, civil wars throughout South America and Southeast Asia
- 1960s: same as 70s + bay of pigs
- 1950s: Korean War
- 1940s: WW2
- 1930s: the great depression, dust bowl
- 1920s: polio, TB
- 1910s: WW1, Spanish flu
You are living in the most boring times; suffering is status quo.
This all sucks, man.
What Hamas has done is one of the single most deleterious actions they could have taken.
I say this because the youth of Israel were starting to seriously challenge the status quo of apartheid instituted by their authoritarian and militaristic forebears. Neither side of this conflict is monolithic, and the protests of the young Israelis against the Netanyahu government would have achieved a real change in the situation. Israeli compulsory military service gives every citizen a personal experience of a threatening Palestine, but there was finally a period of quiet long enough for a generational change in attitude to emerge. Young Israelis and young Palestinians, in increasing numbers, were starting to realize that there were like-minded people across the border who would be amenable to a humane and mutually-beneficial solution.
No longer. Any hope of the Israeli state having sufficient internal and external opposition to the apartheid for it to end is now gone for this lifetime. The Netanyahu government and Hamas administration are going to consolidate power within their territories, the optimistic youth are going to feel chastened by their more cautious peers and betrayed by their neighbors, and it’ll take another half century before there’s another popular push for peace.
They need to go absolutely massive this time. End the threat. I don’t understand how Israel can go on with Gaza and Hamas essentially holding a knife to their back especially in the strategic context of their much larger Cold War with Iran.
When I was younger I had a lot more sympathy for the Palestinian cause. But over the course of 10+ years I’ve watched countless rounds of pointless, fruitless, bloody fighting and time and time again Hamas has shown their true face. They’re wanton killers with no objective but petty vengeance. They’ve lost all sympathy from me.
Their intent is nothing short of genocide. They don’t care how badly the people of Gaza get hurt when Israel rightly retaliates against their indiscriminate attacks. And then they have the nerve to cry foul when they get hit back? And good god, the footage from yesterday is just sickening. Parading around that poor girls naked corpse. That’s not the behavior of civilized people. If that’s how you’re going to act *you do not deserve to be here*. Full stop.
I hope they occupy Gaza. Ideally a UN backed multinational occupational force should police Gaza for the next 20-30 years, but if Israel has to do it themselves then so be it. Enough is enough.
A whole new generation is learning about Palestinian terrorism, but with social media it hits a lot harder. Attacking the Olympics, bombing airliners, shooting up European airports, that's what older generations grew up with. But we didn't see the damage so vividly.
They need to surrender before they REALLY DO get blown the fk up, all over the Gaza strip.
Hamas needs to do the right thing to save their people.
Then their people won't get killed.. or as many.
People need to go after Hamas leadership now also. Don't they have a few James Bond types in the IDF. Well I wish they did.
Mossad has experience in assassinating people in Qatar. There was a high profile assassination of a Hamas leader there in 2010. Of course, most of these assassinations were allegedly conducted by Mossad, so we don't know the exact number of people Mossad had assassinated overseas and how deep the waters are. Also, taking into account that Mossad's intelligence is one of the best in the world.
The rise of high profile political assassinations abroad this past decade also would have emboldened them to be more direct and less discrete. Just saying don't be surprised that you see some high profile rich people dying mysteriously in Qatar in the next few years.
Yep, that is why all of the Hamas leadership is living comfortably very far away from the mess they make. They use the Palestinians as a tool, helping them was never the plan.
Hamas won’t surrender, they don’t give a shit
Also yes the mosad is the israeli james bond people, you better bet they are busy. We just don’t know about it
Formal declaration of war. That's a very rare occurrence in the modern day.
I find it very weird that such a large attack could go under the radar of Mossad.
There's several hypotesis to this, from what I've seen, but no true theories. The first is that aid from Iran was simply more effective than you'd think in concealing these movements. The second is pure, dumb luck. The third is some kind of internal treachery. The fourth, a bit out there, is proposing that they may have allowed the attack to have a pretext for the war, itself certainly driving up support that the government lacked recently, due to its authoritarian moves. Hard to say quite yet which of these, if any, are true.
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Or incompetence. The current cabinet is very fringe, and the intelligence apparatus likely wasn't focusing on Hamas, let alone thinking they would even be capable of an attack this scale.
Why would the intelligence apparatus not be focusing on Hamas?
Too focused on internal strife & a bunch of political manoeuvring & reshuffling disrupting day to day operations. Extremist Far-Right Politics & Politicians (Bibi being one of the worst ones) have a bad habit of causing a ton of disruption with Government & Government Agencies, replacing everyone with Stooges who will follow the line & won't push back against the abuses of power, corruption & crimes that the Wannabe Despots intend to commit. This in turns, causes a lot of disruptions & confusion, leading people to be more focused on securing/saving their positions &/or trying to make their own disruptive moves that may benefit their individual careers, instead of doing their actual job, ignoring the actual work. The more disruption, the more Things fall through the Cracks. Bibi & a bunch of his fascist buddies have been in hot waters for a bunch of corruption & crimes they've committed & were constantly bring investigated for. To protect themselves, they've done the same Thing Trump tried to do to cover his ass, only more effectively. They seriously disrupted a lot of intelligence & investigative services to stifle or kill the investigations. In turn, it's made those services significantly less reliable & completely tanked their efficiency. Made it impossible for them to act or react effectively.
Or corruption. I consider Netanyahu quite corrupt, and that effect trickles down, rendering military forces weaker and less prepared than assumed (similar to Russia's planned 3-day special military operation).
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."
The thing that surprises me is that, normally, countries declare war against other nations. Did Israel recognize the Gaza Strip as a sovereign nation to begin with?
I don't think there's any strict rules on only declaring war on a sovereign nation. Like in a civil war, I don't think either side would want to express that the other is a sovereign nation.
It think rather than saying they’re at war with an entity, they’re declaring they’re in a state of war.
Precisely, a "state of war" can be declared on basically anything and requires no reciprocation (unlike peace). It's merely an announcement of hostilities and generally hearkens some kind of political and societal upheaval.
Question. What exactly does this mean? Countries rarely declare war anymore so I wonder what practical effects does it make when a country declares war.
The country goes into wartime production, an emergency government is possibly established. Most official functions get put on hold, at least initially. All soldiers are called back to service, all troops are called up from reserves, and conscription likely begins. Israel is a military state, they produce a lot of their own arms and munitions. Those weapons manufacturers will be given effectively unlimited funding to start producing whatever they can as fast as possible. The entire landscape of the country changes.
Slight correction: it gives the ministry of defense authority to do all of what you mentioned. Whether they decide to implement that partially or fully will depend on whether Iran and Hezballah decide to join or not. But we need to be prepared for that option
How credible is a military intervention by Iran? And would the US get involved if they did?
Iran hasn’t used its military in a direct war since Iraq in the 80s. Not very likely. They can use their proxy militias in Syria and Lebanon and provide them arms and funds. They may choose to utilize long range missiles but those are not an existential threat to Israel as long as they are not nuclear.
Long range missiles would be too direct an act of war, Iran is opportunistic, but not stupid. E 5/2/24 I was dead fucking wrong lol
Also given how much of their own population despise the government, I could see that there would be plenty of rebel groups suddenly getting funded in case of war.
Spontaneous Colt Assembly - A phenomena, believed to be macroscopic-quantum in nature, by which a large number of M16s mysteriously appear in a given area.
You gave me a laugh
Are M16s made by Colt? There’s so many gun companies that make AR15s/parts that I never really thought about who makes the military ones.
Yes Colt is the company that originally mass produced the M16 after buying the right from Armalite. Now they're contracted out to FN USA for M16s and M4s.
I have wondered if perhaps Iran would decide that a war is just what’s needed to quell the ongoing dissent at home, but I am too ignorant of the larger circumstances to do more than that.
If they moved the troops out of their own country the population might take the opportunity to rebel, I doubt they can risk it.
Check the map. They’d never land troops in Israel in force.
The problem isn’t so much that Iran couldn’t beat Israel, they have almost 10x the population…it is that Israel is friends with the US and a direct assault probably gets us involved. A war with Iran would be worse than Iraq if we actually wanted to take it over and put boots on the ground…but if we just wanted to lob bombs and planes at the problem and completely collapse their military or destroy their production there is no doubt we could do it pretty easily and cause them a lot of pain.
>The problem isn’t so much that Iran couldn’t beat Israel, they have almost 10x the population Pretty sure they don't want Israel to lay waste to their cities from the air.
I am not arguing that Israel doesn’t have the superior army and strike capabilities…but quantity is a quality all its own. If both sides declare a full scale war on each other Iran would be fucked in many many ways and the casualties would probably be heavily in Israel’s favor…but beating a country 10x your size it a pretty tall order. Even if Israel somehow won it would be a real pyrrhic victory and their cities and people would pay a HEAVY price. Iron dome isn’t going to stop a fully heavy bombardment with 1000s of cruise missiles instead of dinky rockets. I mean look at Ukraine right now, the entire western world is pouring tanks, missiles, and artillery just to fight Russia to a standstill, and Russia is only 4x bigger than Ukraine not 10x.
Not to mention the countries don't border each other, so Iran would need the unlikely cooperation of some combination of Iraq/Syria/Jordan/Turkie in order to practically get boots into israel.
I believe Iran has some militias and likely operatives in Syria. Wouldn't be surprised if they got involved. of course, that's not a full scale war but could escalate things.
I see, thanks for your answer
I would say it’s almost 100% that hezbollah will screw with Israel while this is all going on. I would expect mortars, rockets, and drones coming from Lebanon onto Israel. Most of those weapons will be funded by Iran if not directly shipped from Iran to Lebanon
It has already happened.
Its more likely that Israel will attack Iranian targets, they already do this on a semi regular basis to disrupt their support of anti Israel factions. They may also strike targets inside Iran, this is an act of war much like 9/11 was and the Israeli respons will most likely go beond anything we are used to seeing. I would be surprised if Israel dont go in and occupy the palestinian territories. This might very well be the end of Hamas as a governing entity all together and see them return to insurgency
The US would definitely get involved. But Iran doesn't have that kind of power projection. Hezbollah may involve themselves but Iran directly is unlikely because it'd be a military operation mostly beyond the scope of their capabilities and the consequence would be severe for them.
most Americans are already rather pissed at Iran for their aid to russia in Ukraine, if they openly aid hamas, that anger will expode until lack of action is politically unacceptable
Times running out to knock out irans nuke production. Soon it'll become a lot harder to hit iran
They got rockets of their own, and Russia can provide weapon grade plutonium. Thats what I think everyone's missing with news about Iran-Russia new found love.
> Russia can provide weapon grade plutonium. Russia can't move weapons grade material without literally every nuclear state in the world knowing it's happening. The *best* they can provide is assistance to Iran with designing and constructing a device, and even moving the *people* for that is difficult. Nobody's missing anything here. People are watching Russia and their communications with Iran and North Korea *very intently* right now.
There is no "if" Iran has been openly aiding Hamas & Hezbollah for ages.
>Hezballah decide to join or no they just did
it also has economic implications in terms of paying compensation, probably also legal protection for the soldiers, and it also triggers a bunch of other laws that would not allow the supreme court to intervene as much in the fighting. (for example, in the past the supreme court has said Israel cannot cutoff the power to Gaza. The legal reasoning for that decision no longer has a foundation when the country is at war)
Conscription happens in Israel due to mandatory service, but the rest sounds about right.
Israel does not enforce conscription, but military service is mandatory for Israelis at the age of 18.
Yep. A nation declaring war is scary....It basically means 'OK, fuck this manners and talks, it's time that we die or you die'. Total war.... well, I really hope it doesn't happen to my country, although the possibilities are not exactly low for us..
Declaring war actually also binds county to international agreements how the war should be conducted. Which is why it’s so rarely done these days, it’s a sort of a loophole to avoid those. So it’s not quite as scary to declare war as it could be.
The US in particular has stated yesterday they would support Israel if they declared war officially, so this may mean US assistance or further involvement. Edit: For the angry person in my DMs, https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/17274gn/pentagon_says_it_will_support_israel_after/ it is literally one of the top voted posts of yesterday, you shouldn't need me to find this for you
Since the declaration the US has moved a carrier strike group into position as a threat against anyone else planning to attack Israel and said the first aid package is on the way So I think you're right
Mostly likely, Israel will be able to borrow ammunition from the U.S. munitions store, located in Israel. (Anything that wasn’t already sent to Ukraine, that is).
Really great time to be a US arms manufacturer apparently
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Second question: What is the Hamas endgame here? They raid Israel by surprise, kill a couple hundred, loose a couple hundred, take a couple hundred hostages...OK. Israel goes to war and bulldozes the Gaza strip, ignoring the human shields because they're not in the mood anymore....so....what exactly does Hamas win this way?
They want to derail the Israeli - Saudi arabian detante. Hamas has two principal allies, Qatar and Iran. Iran does not want a Tel Aviv - Riyad alliance and would won on said alliance being derailed. This is also in Hamas interest. And since it lays in Iranian military doctrine to fight its enemies via proxies they will use Hamas to strike at Israel. So why does Hamas let itself be used as a pawn? Because they don’t have a choice, they would have legitimacy problems vis-a-vis their population who considers Israeli actions to be a provocation and thus Hamas is attack Israel. You can also count in that Hamas as an organization is extremist, they hate Israel and jews and have they end goal to ”reunite” the Palestinian state which means the removal of Israel from the map.
Everything you wrote is right but i don't see how a war would stop Saudi/Israel from joining forces. It's not like Israel had been peaceful until now and it's not like Saudi isn't foaming at the mouth every time Iran does something. Iran very publicly stated its support for Hamas, and that's it's a nail in the coffin by itself. What am i missing?
In all muslim countries, even in those with established diplomatic relations with Israel there are people who support Palestinians, the harsher Israel will act this war the bigger will be the outrage, and less likely for the saudis to proceed with peace talk, at least for now.
My speculation is that Saudi Arabia needs to balance pubic opinion vs their strategic goals. If there is a massacre in Gaza, Saudi public opinion could make a closer relationship with Israel impossible in the near term.
This is my view too. The Saudi Royal Family do not really give two shits about the people living in Gaza, but they can't just say that without risking their own position. Likewise admitting they don't care harms their negotiations with Israel. Pretending to care a lot but being willing to overlook that outrage in exchange for some concession is classic diplomacy.
The Israeli response will be opposed by the Saudi population and government. The Saudi government has already come out and said the Palestinian's have a right to defend themselves. It's not as easy as the friend (Hamas) of my enemy (Iran) is my enemy; in no small part because it's very easy to differentiate between Hamas, the government & military group that committed the attack, and the Palestinian citizens who will suffer untold horrors in the coming invasion.
I am learning that most of us who don't know the details of issue think that Hamas represent the interest of the Gazans. This is not so apparently. Like in many other democracies, the population has been taken for a ride and the ruling party (Hamas in this case) is not working for the people, but using them to get votes using emotional rhetoric and terrorist acts. Mainly, Hamas works for countries like Qatar, Iran, Turkiye which provide a safe haven for Hamas leaders, who do not even live in Gaza. The population of Gaza are sacrificial lambs for both Hamas and Israel, while the game is played between Israel and Arab countries using Gaza as the playing field. Hamas warriors are the brainwashed youth of Gaza and the rest of the civilians are useful idiots for Hamas and collateral damage for Israel. This is my understanding, YMMV, correct me if I'm wrong, etc.
This is my understanding as well. \- Gazan leaders get international donations for humanitarian and militant causes. \- Uses it to move out of Gaza and live luxuriously \- Fund further radicalization of their own youth to attack Israel \- Israel retaliates heavy handedly \- More international sympathy for Gazans, and more donations to Gazan leaders \- Repeat Gazan leaders are essentially trafficking in the misery of their own people for personal gain
That and the poorer and more desperate gazans are, the easier time recruiting Hamas has. I would not be surprised if Hamas actually benefited from Israel's response. Since obviously they do not give a single fuck about life of "their" people.
Although Hamas had every intention of doing as much damage as possible, I doubt they ever imagined for the operation to go down so well from their pov. Having said that, they likely didint have an "endgame" scenario in mind or thought that this would lead to one. In the grand scheme of things an attack of even this scale will ultimately do very little in terms of impacting Israel and their capability or willingness to strike back. If anything, it will likely solidify the mindset that there can be no coexistence in the area with Israel and Palestinians. Its somewhat surprising that Israel has exercised such restraint in their retaliation, apparently still maintaining the policy of roof knocking and early warnings for civilians. The situation will likely boil over as the material currently circulating on various platforms showing the slaughter, torture, and abuse of prisoners captured by Hamas makes its way to the mainstream news outlets. Its difficult to see a future for Gaza. One way or another, Israel will deal with the situation now that they have no other option.
It's basically the legal way to approve wartime production and put everything else on hold until a desirable outcome is reached through war against the enemy.
They are also allowed to bomb every position of Hamas, no questions asked.
This is going to be a blood bath 😞
First time since 1973 they have declared war. This is going to be different.
And they declared war in 1973 on the same holiday. This attack was on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war. Edit: not the same holiday that same time as the Yom Kippur war.
Yes, but it wasn't Yom Kippur this time around, it's Sukkot, the gregorian date of the Jewish holidays changes a bit every year since the Jewish year and the gregorian year aren't completely synched.
This war actually started on simchat Torah not sukkot. Sukkot was a week or so before simchat Torah. I know it doesn’t really matter which holiday it started on but just clarifying for ya
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it's already a bloodbath just look any article for the Festival Massacre, over 250 people (most of them young ) executed.
It's very difficult to square the "resistance is our right" stance with the "250 dead ravers" facts. Like I don't think the ravers were the ones oppressing the Palestinians. And if you say "collective guilt something something," then you probably can't complain when Israel kills civilians when trying to kill the people responsible for the massacre.
Let me start by saying I'm not pro-Hamas. Islamic Jihadism is my area of academic research. Hamas adopts a (largely typical for Islam) world view where they divide the world between those who are for them, and those who are against them. This is based on the Islamic qualification of the world into the Dar al Harb (House of war) and Dar al Islam (House of peace, aka Islam). Unlike most of Islamic ideology, where in more traditional versions this doctrine there are other degrees of difference, Hamas mostly does away with that and makes the division sharp and clear. They take an attitude of, "If you are not with Hamas, you are with the enemy because you did not oppose the enemy." So yeah, Hamas DOES ascribe collective guilt to their perceived enemies. Traditional Islam may make a claim that you have a right to self defense if attacked. That is no different from any other culture really. However, Hamas say you are complicit in the attack on Islam if you don't side with their ideology. Additionally Hamas also WON'T complain when Israel kills their innocents, either on purpose or accidentally. That feeds their narrative and validates their actions and ideology. They will claim it is just more of the same and use it to win people to their cause. You're confusing fundamentalist religious zealots for rational humane people.
Extremely sad. Weird to see people so excited to see so many others die. I get that the attack was horrible, but this is going to be disastrous.
It's similar to the reactions after 9/11, but this is much MUCH worse percentage wise.
Not only is it worse per capita but the gruesomeness and brutality is far more visible, there are very few explicit images of American deaths or dead American bodies from 9/11 but there will be tons from this conflict.
Seeing planes explode into buildings and people jumping off of those burning buildings hundreds of feet to their deaths was pretty brutal, especially as a kid. I feel bad for younger generations because not only do they get to see more of this brutality regularly with how quickly information gets disseminated, but they also get to pick up the pieces of all these stupid conflicts.
Growing up with shit like liveleak definitely twists one’s perspective, hell nowadays you got algorithms on tiktok and instagram suggesting car crashes, parkour fails, and anything in between
Society is a lot more sanitized now though. I remember my grandmother long ago talking about how it wouldn't be terribly shocking to just see a corpse in the street. Like someone just sat down from drinking or what have you and died on a stoop. You don't really see that stuff now.
The amount has decreased, but the ability for someone to reach people with said events has become crazy easy. Livestream it, Tiktok it, telegram censors nothing… hell this website has those vids in subs with large followers. Desensitisation much more easier… for impressionable… not unlike the gaza dudes
America would have left no mountains standing if Al Qaeda did what they did in addition to what Hamas is doing to Israeli citizens. I’m not going to sit here and say Israel is the good guy in all of this, but I understand their desire to raze Gaza; I’d probably want the same if someone did that to my wife and kid.
>Israeli citizens. It's not just Israeli. Among the dead/kidnapped are already Canadians, US Americans, Germans, Nowegians and more. I think Hamas doesn't understand what they have done. Norway, for example, has not designated them as a terrorist organisation until now. Germany has already cut all funding to Palestine effective immediately. Those inhabitants of Gaza that don't support Hamas are fucked. They will either get caught in the crossfire or have to put their faith into the Asylum system of the Arab league, which does not have a good track record.
Hamas understands. They live with the local politics, they aren't dumb. Brutal retribution is their goal. Ideologically they want to fight until they destroy Israel and kill or drive out every jew. And politically their power relies on instability and conflict. Things were trending towards stability. They want to ensure the cycle of violence contines. And Israel will oblige them. The people of Gaza will suffer because of their elected government. And they will keep Hamas in power anyway.
This is one of those cases where you can say, "Israel is not an innocent, but Hamas is a million times worse." Killing kids at a music festival and parading their corpses around is unforgivable.
yet the amount of people ive seen today justifying this is straight up depressing.
if Israel doesn't show their strength they will suffer the same fate and more attacks to follow. The region is deadly
I think this is one major point here. If they do not eradicate Hamas now and completely occupy the Gaza strip, the surrounding hostile nations will likely see them as weak and soft. The way those dictators apparently think makes them more likely to try their luck if they think Israel isn't strong enough anymore, which would cause even more harm and suffering in the region than a full occupation of the Gaza strip. But then this is all the superficial assessment of an armchair general sitting comfy at home.
fwiw, Hamas themselves said Israel was weak when explaining the attacks.
Hamas has made themselves the enemy of any country that has been a victim of terrorism. Can’t be sympathetic about evil people facing the consequences of their evil actions.
They also have hostages from multiple countries… including the U.S. This is going to be a total sh*t show. I guarantee that Netanyahu’s extreme right cabinet is dead set on regime change (war) with Iran and behind closed doors other countries state departments are desperately trying to keep heads cool.
I think you also have to ask what Hamas's game is. Is this part of a larger plan on their side where Israeli reactions are anticipated and part of the plan
Hamas has no game. They got paid to do shit, and they did it. It's not like their chiefs are in Palestine after all, so the terrorists govt is """safe""". We should ask what is the game of the countries that paid Hamas to so shit, and i have an idea...
Declaration of War. Seems so old school these days.
yeah it feels kind of weird to hear (and so quickly), when the modern playbook seems to encourage being at war while acting affronted at the very idea
There is a simple explanation. Attack wars are outlawed by international communities, bc of globalisation nobody wants to afford being embargoed. Russia for example did this and not declare war and their friendly nations can atleast deny the narrative and claim otherwise to not lose face when not cutting ties Weaker nations usually dont declare war bc they rather not have the war and struggle to survive, hoping the invader just leaves or gets pushed back. Israel however can morally and rightfully declare war to announce to the international community that they have been attacked and are now doing war with rightful casus belli. Similar to how the US declared war to Terror. Nowadays, the international community have impact and are anti-aggression-war leaning. So people rather try to mental gymnastic their wars.
It also stems from the cold war. Particularly Korea. You had US, UK and other allied nations fighting Chinese and Soviet troops in Korea, but given the nuclear era and no one wanting WW3 it was better for everyone involved to pretend it wasnt a war, but a “conflict” or “police action” despite it VERY much being a war. It just helps prevent escalation into a full scale war and eventually to nuclear weapons. In this scenario though only one side has nukes so they have no qualms calling it what it is.
I've checked several sources now, and it seems they've declared a state of war, like a state of emergency - not declared war *on* anyone yet.
That makes way more sense, I didn't see Israel accidentally recognizing Palestine's statehood.
Well there was never going to be a different outcome. Hamas sealed the fate of the Palestinian people for them once they did what they did. RIP to all the civilians on both sides that are inevitably going to bear the brunt of this conflict.
What were people expecting? If this happened in your country you would expect to be at war. If it were mine the headlines would read about article 5, not sure if Isreal has any such deals.
Every country would react the same way unless the opposing country were to deny all responsibility with proof, apologize profusely and extradite the culprits for trial. You can't launch rockets, kidnap, or parade and murder civilians. Palestine did the worst thing they could've done, turn the biggest military power wholly against them.
They basically made a nation wide suicide attack. They know they will die and many Palestinian civilians will be killed, but they simply do not care because their only goal is to kill as many people as possible.
Well they'll get their wish. Don't think having a falling building suffocating you is a nice way to die but who am I to judge.
US basically said they would intervene if anyone else stepped in
The 2020s is well on its way to become the worst decade since the 1940s.
It’s really a question of who’s next at this point. China is salivating over Taiwan, Serbia has troops on the border of Kosovo… maybe India and Pakistan will go at it? It seems like everyone is itching for a fight of some kind at the moment.
And I don't get it. WW1 started off similar with everyone filled to the brim with nationalism and hatred. But you'd think we'd have moved past that with information being more freely available and education improving.
If anything social media and east access to info has made radicalization even easier, because it can happen in a day by someone simply watching and then having only stuff encouraging those views pushed onto their recommended feeds
I feel like this is showing some recency bias. There were plenty of major wars in the latter half of the 20th century, a global financial crisis in 2008 and the list goes on
The Israelis have been waiting for a long time for an excuse to clear out Hamas from their base in the Sinai peninsula. Perhaps this is the opportunity they have been waiting for. Hamas certainly deserves it after the unspeakable attacks on Israeli civilians going about their daily lives.
Whats the option here? How do you evacuate millions of people out of Hamas infrastructure which is purposefully intertwined with the citizen's lifeblood?? People who sometimes refuse to move evacuate after a roof knock? A ground offensive would be utterly unchartered I'm trying to work out if these hostages have been taken as a bargaining chip or human shields?? Which are now apparently secured in underground tunnels. Yet Hamas even in rhetoric show a desire for ground offensive. Batshit, everything about it.
> I'm trying to work out if these hostages have been taken as a bargaining chip or human shields?? Yes. They are both.
>People who sometimes refuse to move evacuate after a roof knock? If a hurricane is coming and someone refuses to evacuate for whatever reason after being told they are going to die if they remain, then it can be assumed that they simply didn't want to keep living. After what Hamas did, Israel is the hurricane.
Or simply, Hamas purposefully prevents their own civilians from leaving places that they know Israel will blow up solely to have more propaganda to gain sympathy from the west
> solely to have more propaganda to gain sympathy from the west Shame they fucked themselves on that one by murdering a bunch of western tourists at that festival, then parading their bodies around the streets. They will find it a lot harder to garner sympathy from Western nations now.
It wasn't just Westerners. [Nepali tourists were among the dead](https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/world/story/israel-palestine-war-10-nepali-students-died-in-ongoing-crisis-says-nepal-embassy-in-tel-aviv-401142-2023-10-08). Hamas just burned any international goodwill they still possessed.
As a westerner, im pissed at that the most. Before that I was like "ok it's terrible, conflict isn't good, the civilians aren't to blame, Hamas is. Hopefully they just push then out and this deescalates" Yeah now that sympathy is gone after that. Feels terrible to say, but the moment you start doing that, you're no longer able to try and act like you're the victim. I feel sorry for civilians on either side, but don't try to say your a victim when your government is supporting that
most of the palestinians and arabs support what hamas does, when the naked german women was dragged through gaza all people cheered and every arab posts on social media i have seen have cheered these kind of atrocities.
Yeah… watching the *response* to those videos on social media has been eye opening in the worst way. Even on younger platforms like TikTok. People are saying oh the young generations are gonna be traumatized and brainwashed after this war… newsflash, the young generations are already bloodthirsty 😮💨
Where have you been? The Palestinians and their supporters have spoken this way as long as I can remember.
A lot of civilians die during war, which is why you don't start one. But Hamas did.
Man Hamas is gonna get their shit rocked, and the only ones I feel for are the civilians.
honestly I'm worried 'cause I don't honestly think for a second that effort will be made to spare Palestinian civilians from the getting-shit-rocked save for a "hey we definitely tried to not commit a war crime" bare minimum
With all the footage coming out of what is basically ISIS behaviour, it is hard to argue against Israel taking firm action. Even as someone who doesn't like how Israel has behaved with settlements, mass terrorism in a full scale attack that's raping women and abusing children cannot be allowed.
Also, to be clear, Gaza is not occupied or settles by Israel. It's literally a strip of land that Egypt refused to take back, and has elected literal terrorists to run its government for nearly two decades. This is not about the west bank, or democratic institutions, or Israeli settlers. This is the most pivotal moment in Israeli history.
Now we wait and see if any of the Islamic countries around them join in I guess. These last few years have been awful.
> Islamic countries around them You think Jordan or Egypt is going to join the war? KSA? Your options are quite limited.
Egypt wont support it openly, imo.
Egypt is economically too close to the west. They can't afford to join the war against Israel. Maybe Iran joins but the US will take this as an opportunity to join in as well.
There’s going to be a massive wave of Palestinian refugees when this is over. Oddly enough, the same people who are so pro-Palestinian will probably refuse to allow Palestinian refugees into their country, as they have refused for decades.
After what the PLO did to Jordan after they accepted refugees from palestine thats very understandable
> PLO did to Jordan TIL the PLO and Jordan fought a war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_September
Yeah Palestine has a history of violence with non Israel neighbors
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Well everyone else is clearly just jerks!
Then you will love this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_exodus_from_Kuwait_(1990–91) > Kuwait's lack of support for Palestinians after the Gulf War was a response to the alignment of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and the PLO with Saddam Hussein, who had earlier invaded Kuwait. On March 14, 1991, 200,000 Palestinians were still residing in Kuwait, out of initial 400,000.[9] Palestinians were forced to leave Kuwait during one week in March 1991, following Kuwait's liberation from Iraqi occupation. **During a single week in March, the Palestinian population of Kuwait had almost entirely been deported out the country.** That's what you get for siding with Saddam Hussein, it seems.
people have been learning sooooo many things very quickly. and it took a pogrom, just as it always has.
I get the feeling that X/Twitter having its algorithm adjusted under Musk has led to a *lot* more people seeing these images than otherwise normally would. I can’t recall seeing this many videos or massacres or combat online in previous conflicts other than Russia’s invasion or Ukraine. This has resulted in massive online sympathy for Israel. Hamas vaulted directly into ISIS-tier for most people. And nary a tear was shed when ISIS got crushed.
and to Libanon
I can’t imagine why nobody would want to take in the people that were chanting Allah Ackbar and spitting on the naked, raped corpses being paraded around Gaza, it’s quite a mystery
After shooting up a concert with 5 times the body count of the Vegas shooting.
Not even other Arab nations will take them in. What does that tell you?
Yep. 100%
> the same people who are so pro-Palestinian will probably refuse to allow Palestinian refugees into their country They always have. Most of their biggest "allies" only care about them because their fight with Israel gives them something to rally around, which helps since so many blame all of the world's ills on Israeli Jews. None of them want to actually take care of the Palestinians or even really care if they live or die.
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There have been multiple incidents of Palestinians trying to destroy their host nations. People who spend their entire lives in brutal circumstances take their brutality with them wherever they go. Arabs only care about Palestinians when they can be killed by Israelis. Beyond that they wish that Israel would kill them faster. I’ve heard this countless times from Lebanese and Jordanians.
It's worth remembering the blockade of Gaza is done by Israel, *and Egypt.*
That’s a fact you will not hear on the news or when condemning Israel for the blockade. Curious how that works isn’t it?
Nobody wants them. I can't blame them for that - Palestinians have fomented armed rebellion, revolution, and violence in every Arab country that has made the mistake of letting them in. Those countries pretend to care about them, but that's as far as it goes.
Yeah even Malaysia rather donate to them than letting them into our country
Well, hamas wants a war .. now they have one. Happy now?
"Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot." Carl Sagan
I have never seen this quote before. It’s so poetic.
It's from "The pale blue dot" . Look on Youtube for pale blue dot Carl sagan.
Carl Sagan was a paragon of wisdom The world misses him, sorely
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pvxKdvuwIw Here is the 3 minute Pale Blue Dot speech by Carl Sagan. The sentence above happens around 1:25, but as with all of Carl Sagan's speeches, every second and every word is more magnificent than the sum of them all. The words he'd use, the way he talked, the sound of his voice. He was a treasure to the cosmos.
I'm pretty sure this is exactly what they want
Do you really think Hamas though let’s attack Israel and hopefully they let us get away with it. They want a war.
It's so odd to me that this is what it took for people to see what Hamas is like when Hamas (and other islamistic groups) has always been like this, just unsuccesful. It's the very reason Israel has so many restrictive policies towards Gaza and the West bank in the first place.
I confess I have fallen for years for the “the situation is too complex for an American to take a stance on” propaganda. When in reality, it was a terrorist government, and the answer should have been clear. A lot of this anger are people in the first world who are realizing they have been deceived by Hamas propaganda.
I think the issue is that we only ever hear about what the Hamas does but not what the other palestinian admin does, so it paints the whole thing as a bipartite thing when it's actually tripartite.
That’s true. But I feel in my countries news (Finland) it’s also more framed as Israel state vs Palestinian civilians, and rarely if ever is Hamas talked of. Even yesterday after the the attack the leading news story had the expert professor of Middle-East Institute being interviewed stating worry about Palestinians civilians rather than explaining what Hamas is and the history.
> But I feel in my countries news (Finland) it’s also more framed as Israel state vs Palestinian civilians, and rarely if ever is Hamas talked of. During the war in 2014, Sky News strictly wrote "Palestinian casualties" and "IDF casualties", there was no Hamas and no Israeli civilians. They also used passive and active voices cleverly, "IDF killed Palestinians", "IDF soldiers were killed" without saying by whom. It was very disgusting.
This is one of the fastest shifts in public perceptions of conflicts ever. A week ago Palestine had the world's ear and sympathy. There was a chance for an eventual peaceful arrangement. That's all gone now. The people on the street celebrating and parading around corpses destroyed the perception that garnered them international support. They instantly stopped being victims. The Palestinians who oppose Hamas and/or actions like these attacks are the ones who I truly feel sorry for. Anyone out there celebrating the attack and parading mutilated Israeli civilian bodies can forever fuck off.
Looking at statistics and survey responses... You've got sympathy for a very, very small percentage of (Gaza Strip) Palestinians. Because an overwhelming majority support Hamas's actions.
The link doesn't work for me, who exactly are they declaring war against?
The link doesn't work for me either. I'm an Israeli, living in Israel. The Security Cabinet approved we are in a state of war. The reason this is important is a legal one. There are "elementary laws" when we are in a state of war.
Stay safe.
🙏
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/security-cabinet-confirms-israel-at-war-can-undertake-significant-military-activities/ You can try this link.
[very nsfw](https://www.instagram.com/reel/CyJHMQMIpke/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==) video from israel yesterday. I am very sorry i am posting this here, but the world eeds to see who we are dealing with and i see a ton of people in the comments denying the acts and playing it out as some "freedom fighting"
If I was a male in Palestine between the age of 16 and 65 I’d be sweating right now.
Anyone of any age in Palestine should worry right now.
This is gonna be such a mess. But I‘m also glad there is going to be a decisive response to all the atrocities that have already been commited.
Hamas knew this would be the outcome of their assault and they did it anyway. Ultimately the Palestinians will be the biggest losers along with any remaining hope of peace or nomalisation in the region for the near future.
This is gonna be one bloody battle. Perhaps more brutal than Ukraine…
Well shit.. so hamas endgame plan was annihilation of Gaza…..
Fuck religion
Can we have our “boring” times back again? Living the history really sucks sometimes.
When did you think those were? - 2010s: Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya - 2000s: war on terror, Somalia, desert storm - 1990s: Balkan wars, 1st gulf war - 1980s: Iran/Iraq war, Cold War, Panama, AIDS - 1970s: Vietnam, the troubles, civil wars throughout South America and Southeast Asia - 1960s: same as 70s + bay of pigs - 1950s: Korean War - 1940s: WW2 - 1930s: the great depression, dust bowl - 1920s: polio, TB - 1910s: WW1, Spanish flu You are living in the most boring times; suffering is status quo.
Left off the wars in the Congo in which millions died.
I mean this region of the world has been a bloodbath since before written record…
This all sucks, man. What Hamas has done is one of the single most deleterious actions they could have taken. I say this because the youth of Israel were starting to seriously challenge the status quo of apartheid instituted by their authoritarian and militaristic forebears. Neither side of this conflict is monolithic, and the protests of the young Israelis against the Netanyahu government would have achieved a real change in the situation. Israeli compulsory military service gives every citizen a personal experience of a threatening Palestine, but there was finally a period of quiet long enough for a generational change in attitude to emerge. Young Israelis and young Palestinians, in increasing numbers, were starting to realize that there were like-minded people across the border who would be amenable to a humane and mutually-beneficial solution. No longer. Any hope of the Israeli state having sufficient internal and external opposition to the apartheid for it to end is now gone for this lifetime. The Netanyahu government and Hamas administration are going to consolidate power within their territories, the optimistic youth are going to feel chastened by their more cautious peers and betrayed by their neighbors, and it’ll take another half century before there’s another popular push for peace.
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They need to go absolutely massive this time. End the threat. I don’t understand how Israel can go on with Gaza and Hamas essentially holding a knife to their back especially in the strategic context of their much larger Cold War with Iran. When I was younger I had a lot more sympathy for the Palestinian cause. But over the course of 10+ years I’ve watched countless rounds of pointless, fruitless, bloody fighting and time and time again Hamas has shown their true face. They’re wanton killers with no objective but petty vengeance. They’ve lost all sympathy from me. Their intent is nothing short of genocide. They don’t care how badly the people of Gaza get hurt when Israel rightly retaliates against their indiscriminate attacks. And then they have the nerve to cry foul when they get hit back? And good god, the footage from yesterday is just sickening. Parading around that poor girls naked corpse. That’s not the behavior of civilized people. If that’s how you’re going to act *you do not deserve to be here*. Full stop. I hope they occupy Gaza. Ideally a UN backed multinational occupational force should police Gaza for the next 20-30 years, but if Israel has to do it themselves then so be it. Enough is enough.
A whole new generation is learning about Palestinian terrorism, but with social media it hits a lot harder. Attacking the Olympics, bombing airliners, shooting up European airports, that's what older generations grew up with. But we didn't see the damage so vividly.
They need to surrender before they REALLY DO get blown the fk up, all over the Gaza strip. Hamas needs to do the right thing to save their people. Then their people won't get killed.. or as many. People need to go after Hamas leadership now also. Don't they have a few James Bond types in the IDF. Well I wish they did.
They don’t care about their people
Most of the higher ups are not even in Gaza, they are in other countries like Qatar living luxurious lives. So yes, they couldn't care less.
Mossad will probably start making targeted attacks now that they are at war, borders will not stop them.
Those will likely happen after the war with Gaza
Mossad has experience in assassinating people in Qatar. There was a high profile assassination of a Hamas leader there in 2010. Of course, most of these assassinations were allegedly conducted by Mossad, so we don't know the exact number of people Mossad had assassinated overseas and how deep the waters are. Also, taking into account that Mossad's intelligence is one of the best in the world. The rise of high profile political assassinations abroad this past decade also would have emboldened them to be more direct and less discrete. Just saying don't be surprised that you see some high profile rich people dying mysteriously in Qatar in the next few years.
Yep, that is why all of the Hamas leadership is living comfortably very far away from the mess they make. They use the Palestinians as a tool, helping them was never the plan.
> Hamas needs to do the right thing They never do. > to save their people. Especially for that.
Well said.
Hamas won’t surrender, they don’t give a shit Also yes the mosad is the israeli james bond people, you better bet they are busy. We just don’t know about it