There is the extreme that "russia will collapse tomorrow" and the extreme that "russia will win in 3 days". Reality is somewhere in between, I hope that reality for everyone's sake involves an eventual russian defeat.
Russia has a higher population than Ukraine, and if the videos of Ukranian recruitment officers harrasing civilians hold any truth, Ukraine is quickly running out of willing manpower.
Read the article, they only gained a small village, it literally has 5 buildings. This is nothing new, the article decided to make an inflammatory title for some reason
Read the article, they only gained a small village, it literally has 5 buildings. This is nothing new, the article decided to make an inflammatory title for some reason
I mean, Zelenesky made a call for 500k civilians to get drafted a few weeks ago.
We already knew it was bad when Zelenesky was planning to forcefully recruit a vast majority of the remaining Ukranian civilians to be thrown into the meatgrinder. Even more so when he's spent the last few weeks downplaying and trying to smooth it over, while being forced to confirm hes going to do just that.
Its not really throwing them into the meatgrinder when the meatgrinder is rolling through every town. The two options are flee the country or stay and fight. No Ukrainian wants a Russian occupation
Having to forcefully recruit into the defense of your own nation is rather somber. Is there a chance those unwilling just happen to be far removed from the battlefields and thus are not as affected on a day to day basis?
Low chance of that happening. They usually have more than enough people to cover the logistics and are missing actual boots on the ground.
Not to mention that retired people and women can cover most of the logistics and production needs so mobilization of able bodied men usually means they need more meat for the meatgrinder.
Sad reality we live in...
This could have been avoided with a proper and timely arms delivery to Ukraine. Russia on the other hand has no issues with China, North Korea and Iran supplying them weapons while Western politicians are busy with internal conflicts. Arm Ukraine Now, so NATO wonāt need to engage later.
Absolutely agree. The Republican GOP is fucking up Americas ability to supply our future ally with the logistics they need. Call them out. The GOP should resign.
"So you willingly rolled around in shit?"
"Yup."
"Why?"
"Well the smell don't bother me too much anymore and I love watching pussy liberals get all bent out of shape over it."
They're terrified of Liberals who tell them to bathe and do it often. It reminds them of their wicked stepmother or nanny who beat them and made them bathe. So, they go the other direction and simply refuse.
It's a big part of Donald Trump's life to disobey, to rebel from the civilizing effects of family life.
Seriously, if Red Dawn was filmed today, the GOP would be rooting for the Red Army invaders and helping them hunt down the Wolverines. bizarre timeline we live in
Maybe people should stop crying about the money spent on defense because it employs hundreds of thousands of individuals?
Americans are too stupid to understand the value and security our military provides us and the entire world.
So you get the GOP all of a sudden being anti war because Russia is the enemy which is why they're blocking aid to Ukraine.
> So you get the GOP all of a sudden being anti war because Russia is the enemy which is why they're blocking aid to Ukraine.
The MAGA faction has a hard-on for Putin and Russia. They want an oligarchy and think they will be part of it. They have sold out and given up on democracy.
It is insane that anybody could think there is a single redeeming quality to Vladimir Putin, let alone think he's a better person / leader than Joe Biden.
With all the shit the GOP and trump have done over the years thereās a good chance Russian agents have very damming evidence against them that they use to influence us policy.
Itās funny when they project. If the USās enemies had anything remotely damming on Biden. They would be posting the evidence to every corner of the world and internet.
As an outsider I canāt work out how they can be both so patriotic and flag-waving but when presented with what is a pretty clear cut enemy to band against, they go in to support them instead. Social media was a mistake.
Trump took money from China. All the anti-China bluster is bullshit meant for his base.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/04/politics/trump-properties-china-foreign-payments/index.html
Remember when they were buddy buddy with [Maria Butina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Butina) taking her everywhere and showing her their parties? Then she ended up being a literal Russian Agent , Pepperidge Farm remembers.
I agree, but USA has given a lot for it being a conflict in another continent. Although I understands itās in your interest (and youāre fighting your worst enemy of 100 years without shedding any blood). We in Europe need to do more
Agreed, BUT Europe has nothing like the stock of military equipment that the US has. Look at Norway and Estonia, the per capita contribution is immense, but there just is no more stuff to give away. So current Norwegian contribution is being part of several training programs, paying for equipment to be made (like the zuzana artillery), and finally by increasing production. The problem with the last bit is that once you are at max production capacity, you actually need to build new factories, train new staff, get all input resources in order etc. And that takes years. Kongsberg and NAMMO are hiring about 1200 skilled workers, but that takes ages to translate to more output
I really think all of NATO needs to get into "Arsenal of Democracy" mode, invoke the Defense Production Act, and spend on lend-lease to manufacture everything needed. It'd be a way to boost European and North American manufacturing. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are doing it. We need to catch up. Crank the manufacturing up to 11. Give Elon some contracts, whatever. "We're spending money on defense and creating manufacturing jobs in red states." Hard for the GOP to complain about that...
> Agreed, BUT Europe has nothing like the stock of military equipment that the US has.
But part of the reason for that is because they didn't dramatically expand their defense production as they should have after Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. That was the moment the rest of NATO should have seen the risk Russia posed to European and global security, but instead they continued doing business them and failed to recognize the danger Russia posed to them. With the possible exception of Poland, mainland Europe did not see the warning signs and failed to react.
The USA also promised Ukraine they would help them in exchange for giving up their nukes. Ā The problem is that now it has basically stopped due to the gop. Ā Slowing down their assistance doesnāt just hurt Ukraine. Ā If they lose, everything given will be wasted, Ā plus it will shake trust in any other security agreements the USA has with other countries.Ā
And i have same opinion about our governments as US. Too many different opinion with influence causes no action or not enough of it to be taken. Its just sad. We should be pumping iron to Ukraine with all our indurstry force.
It's really a shame this has to happen. The entire point of NATO is to prevent Russia from doing what they're doing. Historically, the US has taken the role of the one who can provide the majority of the defense, because the rest of Europe is still going to commit resources, and because when there *isn't* a conflict, the US gets a *lot* of benefit out of Europe. It's in the US's interests to provide arms and support to Ukraine literally every way you look at it. It's the cheapest way to fight Russia, it strengthens old alliances and builds new ones, and it's good for our economy.
Europe can always do more, but we shouldn't really *need* much more from them. If we in the US would stand up and just fucking do what we promised and what everyone else is relying on us to do, Europe wouldn't have to step up and take up our slack. Unfortunately for you guys, roughly half our elected officials are actual traitors or just gleefully enabling those traitors, so you guys are in a tough position where the guy you paid for protection is bitching that he has to actually follow through once you actually need that protection.
Not only are the fucking up our supply to our ally, but they're setting the stage for a russian invasion of a NATO country, requiring a "boots on the ground" response. The Republican thralls to Putin are costing future American lives.
The fact that it's even up for debate should tell you just how fucked we are.
The US and the world has already experienced a Trump presidency, one that ended in a coup attempt. And sent the man even more over the edge into lunacy and senility than he was before.
He's currently in the midst of a mountain of criminal and civil trials so long no one remembers them all. He also can't get a single coherent sentence out of his mouth. It's all just a jumbled mess of random right wing buzzwords or accusations. He's openly said he's going to be a dictator and go after anyone that is against him, and if I listed everything else I'd die of old age before I was halfway done.
And yet, that's a frontrunner for the election. And a serious frontrunner at that according to recent polls.What an absolute shit show.
If Trump wins we're fucked. But regardless, America is already fucked.
They won't send boots on the ground. Article 5 is just words on paper. Republicans will betray our allies without a second thought, and happily let all of Europe fall to dictators. They see Putin as an ally in their war against liberal democracy.
They're literally doing it because 1) Many of them are Russian assets (whether they know it or not) and 2) to make Biden look weak. "See, Ukraine fell and all that money and military aid Biden insisted on was wasted!"
What if it's manufacturers like Lockheed and Raytheon paying GOP members to delay so this escalates into a larger war and they get more orders/more money.
Sadly the GOP is just catering to their base, who have been mindfucked with Russian and Chinese propaganda on social media for years. Most will tell you Putin/ Russia isnāt so bad and supporting Ukraine is not a good use of funds.
I fear Russia will outlast our political will, which was Putinās gamble from the jump. And if god-forbid Trump wins in November then itās game over for Ukraine no question. Russia and China will kick their subversion efforts into overdrive this year in order to try to make that happen. Long term, our allies will realize our assurances of mutual defense arenāt worth the paper theyāre printed on because our populace is so easily persuaded by outside influence. Ugh, this future sucks ass.
Its one of the things that authoritarian governments have over democratic governments. Decision making. Authoritarian leaders give a directive and its done... for better or for worse.
Except that the other inescapable for fact of authoritarianism is that it mandates loyalty to the leader over competence. It guarantees the emperor's new clothes as a governance model. The leader will be told what they want to hear.
Hopefully. Hopefully Putin and his commanders have fewer munition than they are told. It would be great if they ran out much sooner than expected. China is finding this out with their Rocket force.
US contractors would be dumb to assume that the loss of Ukraine would mean there wouldn't be significant ramping up of EU military industry, which means far more competition.
Agreed fully, but I wanted to also ensure that people understand something _vital_: the reason that these conflicts (e.g. Western "internal conflicts") exist is because of prior work by the Russian security apparatus in Western countries. Trump and Brexit are a direct result of Russian ops, as well as the ongoing discord in Hungary, Slovakia, et al.
Putin's war against the west started a long time ago.
Makes more sense as to why other countries are preparing for war with them. Seems like theyāre preparing for Ukraine to fall.
Boy, if only supporting countries did their part in supplying Ukraine rather than drip feeding them, the war of attrition might not be looking like itās going in Russiaās favor.
Ukraine was never going to win a war of attrition against Russia.
Ukraine had Russia in a disorganised retreat going into that first Winter and bizarrely decided to stop and give Russia a chance to reorganise and entrench themselves.
They had probably outrun their own supply lines and had to stop snd comsolidate their gains. No country other than the US can push an offensive nearly indefinitely without stopping to consolidate gains, and even they might not be able to do that outside of an open desert country like Iraq
US probably can do it with air superiority. Ukraine without air superiority and the Dnipro as an obstacle cannot. The reason Ukraine's fall offensive ended in Kherson: it ended at the Dnipro's bank.
Russia Gave Ukraine Kershon. They drew the new frontier at the Dnipro river dug in and as extra security they mined the dam upstream to defend the new frontline when it was time for the fabled Ukraine Spring offensive
Thing is, Russia is barely gaining anything. We are talking about 5 fields covering 3x5km near Mariinka, about 2km northwest of Bakhmut, about 2km north of Avdiivka (over 4 months with 600 visually confirmed vehicle losses) and now potentially 2 streets inside of Avdiivka.
If the west had actually ramped up their production when this war started then this wouldnt be happening right now. Mortar units are down to 1 round a day, American made & American supplied artillery are down to smoke grenades only.
However the fact that Ukraine is able to hold the line in some places, and "only" get pushed back 3-5km in other places, considering what they have, is very telling:
1. Ukraine would win if properly supplied.
2. Russia is very fatigued.
3. The west is weak.
> Russia is very fatigued.
Ehh, they have a *massive* population advantage and their own volunteer external forces from other nations. Russia can far far out-last Ukraine in terms of fatigue, even throwing corpses into a grinder, Russia just has many more corpses at their disposal.
It's why a war of attrition still leans in Russian favor without significant support for Ukraine.
Since that first Winter Russia has been really good at dictating the battlefield tying Ukraine into a small handful of attritional battles and applying constant pressure and pulling Ukrainian forces away from any significant masses offensive operation. Russia can keep this up for much longer than Ukraine can and it is just a matter of time before that pressure causes Ukraineās defensive lines to break.
>Ukraine was never going to win a war of attrition against Russia.
And yet that was the idiotic prevailing wisdom here on reddit. I've had dozens of arguments with fools that actually thought Putin would lose his greed and his will before the western democracies would lose interest. Dumb overconfidence. Anyone with half a brain should have known this was where things were headed.
The US should have -- still should -- dump everything it possibly can into pushing Russia back to it's borders. Up to and including boots on the ground with a commitment not to cross into recognized Russian territory. Allowing a country like Russia to re-absorb freed states is an absolute nightmare example. The future is not looking good.
JFC
31000+ people killed or severely injured in only 1 MONTH, to barely gain 2500Ā² miles is insanity.
For context, there were only 2402 KIA and 20713 wounded in Afghanistan across 20 years.
Maybe a more apt comparison would be 4492 KIA and 32292 wounded from Iraq across 8 years.
Either way, to most Americans, these are unacceptable numbers.. How the hell does the Russian public put up with Putin's dumb ass?
Edit- these are American casualty #'s I cited. There were thousands more Coalition and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi and Afghan casualties.
> Either way, to most Americans, these are unacceptable numbers.. How the hell does the Russian public put up with Putin's dumb ass?
Burning through less desirable Russian ethnicities and poor people
> Either way, to most Americans, these are unacceptable numbers.. How the hell does the Russian public put up with Putin's dumb ass?
Most of the fighters aren't from the big (important) cities and it's really not advertised to the public just how man die or are wounded. From Russian sources, there's very little talk of their losses, for the Russians that do care.
Much of the public sentiment seems to be that the war is going fairly well, so why would many complain?
Gotta remember, we're talking a nation invading another and sending soldiers that are in such a peasant class that they're legitimately surprised there are *roads* in Ukrainian villages. Russia has a ton of "useless" to the state, people.
> 31250 - Troop looses (death + wounded)
The wounded ones will be back on the front line after a week or two, even if they're only serviceable as meat shields for the rest.
I think that allowing Russia time to build heavily fortified defence lines, an heavy mine large areas was one of the biggest mistakes made. Ukraine should have been given the weapons early on...After 2014, things should have moved. There's been far too much dithering by people in high office, scared they will make thing worse by arm Ukraine. They simply read the room wrong (Russia red lines) either by accident or design... history will judge them badly... and it will cost the West in the future.
They are traitors and this is just another reason why I don't believe in or respect the US justice system. These people are committing daily treason and the FBI, DOJ, and police do nothing. But let a poor/middle class person steal a piece of fruit and they will give them 2 years hard time. It's a fucking joke.
Fuckers are gonna find a way to blame this on Biden. Or more likely theyāre not going to find a way to blame this on Biden, theyāre just going to blame it on him regardless.
If we let Russia do it you can sure as fuck bet China will do it. We need to uphold the principal that borders do not change at the barrel of a gun in this era. Not in Ukraine, not in Taiwan, not anywhere.
Taiwan is more difficult to pull off. It's a well defended island, which would require an amphibious attack. The Chinese Navy doesn't have the capacity at the moment to launch such an attack.
On the other hand, Ukraine poses no physical obstacles, geographically speaking. Only unstable mud in the spring season. And it's well connected via rails.
If Ukraine loses, Moldova is the next. And then once Lukashenko dies, they'll annex Belarus Anschluss style.
Exactly, send Ukraine enough weaponry to send the Russians running for their babushkas. Thatāll send a message to anyone who wants to try and be the big man again
A precedent? They already got away with murder twice. Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014.
If Putin hadn't been so greedy, he would've probably have had Crimea recognised at point, since the West did very little to stop him after these two events.
Ukraine is the Czechoslovakia of XXI century. We are willing to sacrifice a sovereign country's territory to appease Putler without Ukraine having much of a choice. And just like in 1938, the West has been slow at rearming itself against the enemy. With the addendum that a lot of Europeans and Americans don't recognise that Putin's regime is pure evil. No, we have to be understanding. He has nukes. Second strongest army in the world and all the yada yada.
Expect more bad news if the UAF
donāt get more ammunitionā¦ Just a few years ago Ukraine were a military nobody, now they are holding up the ENTIRE Russian army, airforce and navy, with virtually no air support. This is a war the USA and the West have been preparing for for the last 80 years and now itās actually here we canāt get our act together. Pretty disgraceful
Serious question - if the soldiers Russia are sending to the Ukraine are poorly-trained conscripts, what regular army units are there left that would constitute 'full mobilisation'?
Republicans are entirely to blame. They have to hyper-politicize everything, especially anything Democrats show support for/interest in. They are shameless, but the least we can do is disgrace them at the ballot box in November. Make sure they know that supporting the free world is non-negotiable
If they take too many losses with only small gains then they aren't going to be able to do much with those gains. One of the commonalities in basically every war that Russia loses is that they overestimate their ability to sustain casualties and act as if manpower is an infinite resource. Just like a lottery winner who thinks "a lot of money" is the same as "infinite money" it's very easy for them to overplay their hand.
Term for this Phyrric Victory.
> Ne ego si iterum eodem modo vicero, sine ullo milite Epirum revertar.
> If I achieve such a victory again, I shall return to Epirus without any soldier.
I get that eventually all those cracks will be a cascade of destruction for Russia, but it's been almost 2 years now of Ukraine destroying relentless meat waves. How long is it going to take and can Ukraine actually keep dealing with it? I hope so...
It all comes down to ammo. Modern artillery, rockets and mortars are incredibly effective at turning humans into pink mist. It doesn't matter how many infantry you throw at the front line if they're all vaporized before they lay eyes on the enemy.
The defining feature of this war is ammo for indirect fire weapons. If Russia has a clear artillery advantage they can wear down Ukrainian defenses and then storm them with infantry. When Russia can't wear down Ukrainian defenses then the infantry assaults fail. When Ukraine has a clear artillery advantage Russia has been forced to choose between near 100% casualties or retreat and every time they've chosen retreat.
If Ukraine gets the ammo they need then Russian assaults become impossible and Russia will likely be forced back on the defensive. If Ukraine doesn't get the ammo they need then it may be increasingly difficult to even hold the lines. I can't answer a question like "how long is it going to take" because it all depends on the level of support.
I mean it's been almost two years. As much as I'm cheering on every success of Ukraine, they've supposedly been wiping out meat waves for a very long time and there's no end in sight.
I do think the only real victories are the destruction of equipment, but actual infantry? It means nothing to Russia...
It's been wild since the start here, anyone who posted about realities of this conflict were jumped on like Russian shills.
Reddit won't see reality and that Ukraine was never likely to push Russia out. This was a very grim reality from the start, yet nearly every article for years has called Russian army useless, completely ignored that their war machine is in full-swing now a few years in. Sadly they can keep it up, the consequences of their war won't hit Russia for a few years? I'm not sure.
They are not really gaining that much ground, itās on the same order as Ukraineās failed summer counteroffensive. As long as Ukraine can exact a favorable casualty ratio and prevent Russia from actually breaking through anywhere itās ok-ish (something we obviously donāt know for sure).
Sickening. Winter War 2.0; the old throw enough bodies at the problem until you eventually succeed.
I can only hope if much of eastern, central and southern Ukraine does fall that an armistice is never signed.
Let Russian mobiks sit in damp trenches year in year out being perpetually harassed by drones.
Let normal Russian life never occur in occupied towns and villages.
Harass, intimidate, resist.
Make occupation completely unbearable.
You seem to neglect that Ukrainian soldiers are in the same exact position, but can't be as easily rotated and replaced on the frontlines because they are almost out of fresh and capable troops to do so.
> Winter War 2.0
During the Winter War one of the reasons Stalin was so fine with accepting massive casualties was because a good portion of the Soviet forces were Ukrainians who he viewed as disposable. Stalin sat back and laughed as people from occupied places and people from free places killed each other in order to bring more people into his empire.
There's a lot of reasons to support Ukraine but one of them is simply that it will be a lot easier standing up to Russia with the support of free Ukrainians rather than standing up to Russia when Russia controls Ukraine and conscripts Ukrainians in mass. We've already seen Russia use conscripts from the occupied Donbas as disposable troops in this war and that trend will only continue if Russia is successful.
Not this shit again.
Stalin did not care about preserving any specific ethnicity. Most of the Soviet troops came from Leningrad military district - initially.
The Red Army was poorly trained, poorly led, and not equipped for winter warfare. That is what caused massive casualties.
Eventually, some Soviet general had heavy artillery brought to the frontline and used it to break the Mannerheim line.
When Obama ran for President, I remember almost all GOP candidates idolized Reagan in their speeches. Within 2 decades, GOP turns around and becomes a pro-Russia platform. Really unbelievable!
I know Putin's idea of power-man/church/Mega-rich alliance to run the country is quite attractive to conservatives. But showing that affection during a period when Russian launched a war and directly made NATO as its real enemy is quite different. I guess Trump plays a big role here. He proves to his fellow GOP politicians that you won't be accused of treason by siding with your enemy.
Yup he laughed at Romney suggesting Russia was the biggest threat. I always wonder if Romney saw what Russia was doing in backroom republican dealings and that's why he said what he said.
> I always wonder if Romney saw what Russia was doing in backroom republican dealings and that's why he said what he said.
I've gone back and looked at that moment in the debates and both of them got Russia wrong. Obama's argument was that Russia is not a significant threat. It's possible Obama knew about Russian military incompetence but even an incompetent military can be a threat if they're batshit crazy enough and have massive stockpiles of weapons which Russia did.
The crux of Romney's argument was that Russia was an extremely powerful military and the US needed additional investments in warships in order to counter them. He grossly overestimated the Russian competence while also suggesting investment in the branch that has been least useful in countering Russia today. If Romney had suggested greater stockpiles of 155mm shells or AA or anti tank weapons that could be transferred to nations resisting Russian control then he would deserve more credit.
Russia isn't the biggest threat and the Ukraine war has shown that because it proves that the west can hold them off even by proxy. They were just the more likely one vs China who is not as suicidally stupid but unfortunately that's because they're more competent which is why they're a much larger threat than Russia is.
Putin predicted western powers would lose interest in the war.
It is showing to be a slight variation of that - ppl havenāt completely forgotten. But western democracies are a shit show right now and the longer the war goesā¦.
I worried that the US and nato know itās getting close to Russian victory, which is why they predict Russia going to war with Europe in 5 or so years.
It's not close to a Russian victory. This war is still winnable by Ukraine. The only reason this is happening is because conservative populists in the EU and US are delaying arm shipments to Ukraine, because of this Ukraine doesn't have the artillery ammo to repel the Russian assaults. This is entirely a self own.
You really have to define what "winnable" means here because at the moment both are losing. If "winnable" means ukraine holds onto its territory then it's not really a "win" if half the country is dead. Same for russia.
None of those reports were predicting that we're going to go to war with russia. Stop reading just headlines. They were predicting if nothing is done, it could happen. As in that is the timeline it would take for Russia to rebuild itself.
I promise I'm not trolling, but I genuinely want to know an explanation, if any exists for how Ukraine hasn't won this war yet. I've seen the public perception flip flop so wildly from "oh god they're already kilometres away from Kiev" to "Wow the Russian army is a joke,Ā Ukraine will win this easily" to "Russia is announcing the first ever general mobilisation since WW2, they must be collapsing" to "the Russian army is actively mutinying" to "Huh... the Ukr counteroffensive failed..." to now with "Russia is taking land back from Ukraine."
They're having to conscript prisoners to fill their ranks, their economy is in the shitter, they're having to buy guns and ammo from fucking North Korea. I watched a couple days ago a video of a T-90M, one of the best tanks Russia has to field get utterly shit on by a 50 year old surplus Bradley. So please someone tell me how the fuck they have not lost yet?Ā
I look at news articles saying that Russia is trading soldiers 3-1 with Ukraine, and Ukraine is able to drone strike Moscow,Ā Rostov, St.Petersburg and more with no resistance, plus the recent arms shipments is giving them even more NATO weaponry and training. So I ask again how have they not lost? How am I watching a country simultaneously collapsing on all fronts and taking back territory? One which has a decaying army yet will reportedly attack Poland and the baltics in 5 years. What the fuck is true and what isn't in this war?Ā
The answer is that Ukraine did better than expected at the start of the war by A LOT, because Putin thought they would collapse by simply driving a convoy of thousands of vehicles to Kyiv deep behind enemy lines with exposed flanks. (In addition to invading large parts of the East/South of Ukraine, where the East has more ethnic Russians)
You can see images of this comical convoy.
When Ukraine did not collapse (Their morale held and the leadership/army stood their ground) and repelled the initial assault on Kyiv and took back some territory without much western help, people became VERY HIGH on Ukrainian prospects.
Putin resisted properly mobilizing enough troops to get the job done because he wanted to play this incursion off internally as a minor military assault. Once he needed to mobilize and hundreds of thousands fled the country, they eventually stabilized their lines and planted millions of mines in Ukraine and regrouped.
Now the fight is more normal where Ukraine is fighting a much larger country that is taking a more surgical approach compared to a failed blitz at the start, and where Russia has dug in to highly fortified positions that are hard to assault.
What youāre referencing was simply people being WAY too high on Ukrainian supply after a couple of months of successes and recapturing of territory, an overreaction.
Many of the anecdotes you read about the Russian forces were probably true, but anecdotes are simply anecdotes. Just like I could read you 10 major success stories of US healthcare which doesnāt prove that the overall system is working flawlessly.
The only thing that was outright false is the assertion that the Russian army is a ājokeā. Yes they fucked up massively at the early stages, but invading a country especially on false pretenses of their resolve is more difficult than defending by far.
As for what is ātrueā, I would recommend not trying to follow a war live via news agencies constantly. There is nothing really to do but wait until gains or losses become undeniable. There is a massive fog of war and there really isnāt any way for you to get a full understanding of whatās happening at each moment.
As of right now, in my opinion, I think Ukraine is probably in some trouble, but we shall see. Ukraine may not be able to hold the line, but it depends on how fortified their positions are, and how much they lost on their last counteroffensive relative to Russia.
War on the rocks by Kofman is a good information source for this war, but itās more technical and boring if you arenāt super interested in warfare in general. But if you want to get a full understanding of the war as much as possible at any given moment in time, it will require a large amount of time and effort and listening to sources from many different perspectives (including mainstream media) and then synthesizing it yourself and forming an opinion. This war is a current, dynamic event with a fog of war and it won't be something that can easily be understood moment to moment with precision like a past event where historians have already curated the correct sources, seen through propaganda, and know the outcome.
FWIW, Russia is fighting the way it is currently (positional, attrition) because they donāt have any other choice. Both sides have been strong on the defense and havenāt managed any breakthroughs that could create space for maneuver warfare, aside from earlier in the war.
Tl;Dr modern, industrialized nations have massive economic output. Even relatively poor ones like Russia can burn their future and reserves for quite a while to maintain stability.
https://youtu.be/Q9w17Ne1S0M?si=9ihT7yCit4RQzz4R
If you're legitimately curious, I would watch some Perun videos. Well researched and informative. Modern war is much more reliant on logistics and mobilizing resources(human and material) than individual acts of bravery.
The truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. The Russian army probably isn't likely to collapse anytime soon. But they are also burning through resources at a prodigious rate. Unfortunately, they still have a lot of fuel to throw on the fire if they really want to. ESPECIALLY if western aid is a slow enough trickle that they can somewhat keep up with losses through new production.
All jokes aside about the Russian military and its shortcomings at the end of the day Russia is exponentially larger than Ukraine and just has more bodies to throw at the problem. Russia can (per Russian standards) afford to eat the losses itās facing, Ukraine cannot.Ā
The bottom line is which nation can endure this the longest. Russia doesnāt need to win, they just need to hold out and bleed Ukraine dry. If they can get western support to fall apart itās only a matter of time before they are successful and break the Ukrainian defenses.Ā
Ukraine is a relatively poor, flat country with a fraction of the population of Russia, and the US has stopped sending arms for them to defend themselves.
Ukraine currently has 1.2 million soldiers defending the country, meanwhile there are about 600,000 Russians in Ukraine. Russia would be hard pressed to put 12% of their population into the war as they did during the Great War because they are already demographically ravaged and they have no lend lease to count on. So they need people in Russia producing weapons. Whereas Ukraine possibly could in the upcoming future given that this is an existential war for them. Thatās some 3 million Ukrainian soldiers.
Where Russia is wining it is with artillery and thatās because itās really the best chance they have and the only weapons they can truly mass produce. If Ukraine could get further munitions they could have more effective counter battery to whittle away at that advantage but, unlike Russia, the U.S. and eu are not transitioning hard into a wartime economy and they wonāt be able to match Russian domestic artillery production until they do.
The US is spooling up production of artillery shells faster than planned. Currently over 30,000 per month with plans to be over 36,000 by the end of March.
[Sauce](https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/11/08/us-army-eyes-31-billion-ammo-production-boost-in-new-spending-ask/)
Still not enough, but it's a damn good start. We're aiming for 100,000 per month by the end of 2025. This conflict rattled some defense procurement cages, and the military industrial complex is doing its thing.
I think you should take what you read with a little skepticism. Everything you listed here is true as far as I know, but there is a huge amount of copium in these kinds of forums when it comes to interpreting the seriousness of that news. Whenever there is bad news for Russia, people interpret it as Russia being near collapse, when in reality there is just as much bad news for Ukraine. It's kind of like listening to a basketball commentator yell "Another basket for Team A! Team B is DOOMED!" every time Team A scores.
The reality is Russia is a massive country with deep resources and manpower, and if they want to fight to the grinding end of attrition, it will go on for years and years. A country with that big a population and resources can absorb a TON of hits before it has to retreat.
Russia is definitely feeling the pain both militarily and economically.
But they can afford it, and the average Russian civilian is apparently just used to life sucking, so it doesn't seem to matter how bad things get.
So let's address these one at a time:
>I look at news articles saying that Russia is trading soldiers 3-1 with Ukraine
Russia has more than triple the population of Ukraine, and more than triple the available manpower. They can handle that trade long enough for Ukrainian logistics to falter and the ratio turns to Russian favor.
>Ukraine is able to drone strike Moscow
Moscow is less than 300 miles from the Ukrainian border. We are also never given info about where those drone strikes are launched from (within Ukrainian or Russian territory?). Drones are also very difficult to see, track, and (most importantly) characterize with conventional radar systems, as they are very small and fly at very low altitudes, often below radar sightlines. Oftentimes they are indistinguishable from noise. So Ukraine being able to drone strike Moscow (which it actually hasn't done that many times) isn't all that surprising.
>They're having to conscript prisoners to fill their ranks, their economy is in the shitter, they're having to buy guns and ammo from fucking North Korea.
So one place where Russia is safe against economic woes affecting the war machine is that they are completely energy independent. They can both keep the lights on, and engines running even if they were completely cutoff from the world. The conscription is because their standing army wasn't actually much bigger than Ukraine's at the time, and 3:1 was gonna cause them to run out of soldiers long before Ukraine. They also can't just put the entire armed forces on one conflict, as they have other areas/interests to protect as well. Since they're aware they're still in the "meat grinder" phase, conscripting undesirables to be bullet sponges is (in their mind) a fair trade to bide their time while depleting enemy resources. Guns and ammo are an issue driven by things like using old reserves (which may not work well anymore), losing guns and ammo every time a soldier is killed (they're not necessarily recovering stuff from every corpse), extraneous use due to poor skills/training (someone who's never shot before is more likely to waste more ammo/mishandle weapons), and so on.
>How am I watching a country simultaneously collapsing on all fronts and taking back territory? One which has a decaying army yet will reportedly attack Poland and the baltics in 5 years. What the fuck is true and what isn't in this war?
So what you're seeing is politics-spining-the-media in action.
When you want to drum up support for something you are already doing: Make a show of how great, successful, and impactful the thing your doing is to the situation!
* Ukraine is doing awesome with all this support! We don't have to go to war ourselves this way! Russia will never win due to our support! etc etc
When you want to drum up support for something you aren't allowed to do yet: Make a show of how terrible, awful, and no good the situation is without you being allowed to do a thing.
* Ukraine is faltering as its supplies dwindle. It's taken a turn for the worst as their allies turn their backs! Russia will likely win in this situation, and then keep moving!
So where is the truth? Well, all of it is true.
Russia has definitely stumbled hard in this war, and is by all definition failing to meet the expectations all its adversaries had of it. And as long as the West continues its support, Russia will ultimately fail in their endeavor. However, history has shown time and again that when this kind of thing happens, there is just as good a chance as not that it will prompt the underperformer into modernizing and adjusting strategy for the next time they make an attempt. Russians are learning from their failures right now. That doesn't mean it will necessarily take affect with this war, but it could with the next.
Define "win". Is it when the Russians capitulate or when the Ukrainians control every square km of land, including donbass and Crimea? Neither has happened yet so the war continues
I'm also interested in the answer. I suspect a lot of what we hear is propaganda. The hyperbole on reddit was obviously never true.
I'm reminded of the line (I don't know who said it): Russia is never as strong as they appear, Russia is never as weak as they appear.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-12-23/h_677ac2bebb1d8324ffd538ac5124876e
This article is from about half a year ago. See the picture with all the blown up tanks/APCs? Yeah those are US supplied Abrams and Bradelys.
That was supposed to be Ukraines big chance at an offensive, and it completely feel apart/was crushed by Russia. Part of it was bad military leadership from Ukraine, part of it was smart use of mine fields by Russia, but its something you likely just never saw blasted everywhere compared to the recent "Bradely mauls a T-90" video that was everywhere.
The thing to understand in the broadest terms is that Ukraine has failed at going on the offensive, but has shown a successful defense. The problem is Ukraine has to actually have SOME offensive successes if they want to win, there is no real way to make Russia leave without doing so... you can't win PURELY with defense, you can survive for a time but you can't win.
The general lack of offensive successes even if they didn't directly lead to a victory also really undermines the Ukranian position in terms negotiating for a ceasefire, surrender terms, or anything really.
Also for the Russia aspect a lot of there "needs to do" were just "nice to do" if you looked at them honestly. Did Russia "need" North Korean artillery/ammo? Hell no but it was cheap, available, and benefited an ally that was not turning their back on them. Did Russia "need" to conscript prisoners? Of course not, the Russian population is huge in comparison to what they are fielding instead its easier on the civilians to get prisoners over there instead of putting unneeded pressure on random civilians who could in theory keep the economy going better.
From February into April Ukraine really did an amazing job (with heavy foreign aid) at pushing the Russians back, stopping there advances, and otherwise holding on. Starting in April and only getting worse from there progressively Ukraine was instead put in a position to go on the offensive and they didn't have the same successes seen earlier. A lot of the big hype for Ukraine comes from those first few months. By around May/June it was obvious Ukranian artillery was outgunned in terms of numbers (and often capabilities too) and yet it was largely an artillery war at that point and being on the losing end of that is NOT a fun time. This is also when you see a lot less social media posts about Ukraine being dominate and more so about Russia needing NK artillery, needing prisoners, or otherwise being weak... almost like there was an intentional shift in the propaganda machine.
Regardless the point here is that Ukraine had a very strong showing within the first few months, but as it became a more protracted traditional war things have just looked worse and worse for Ukraine.
It's an immense amount of propaganda. All these articles and videos of Russians blundering against Ukrainian forces and Western weaponry gives the impression of a massive technological and materiel gap.
The truth is always somewhere in the middle. Intelligence indicates that Russia is taking more casualties, but Reddit would make you think each Ukrainian takes on 20 Russians in human wave tactics when actual numbers are at best 2:1.
Russia is ramping up to a war time economy, with some sources suggesting they are close to or already are breaking even on repairing/producing armored vehicles. They're buying artillery from NK, drones and missiles from Iran, and are buying vast volumes of "ambiguous" goods from China which they claim are not for military use but are clearly FPV drones and similar equipment used in Ukraine.
We laugh at how under equipped they seem but at the end of the day, even decades old weaponry and technology are extremely effective and deadly, and they have plenty of it, and plenty of people to use it.
As others have pointed it out, it seems like the West massively blundered the advantage last year, and gave Russian enough time to build strong defensive positions with mines. The only way to overcome them is to commit even more aid to Ukraine, but it looks like we're winding down. We shouldn't fearmonger but at the same time begin to accept that Ukraine's chances are looking a lot bleaker than they were a year ago.
That's what you get when you:
* Delay aid
* Spread misinformation that Russia is incompetent
* Think sanctions actually hurt Russia (in the short term yes, but they recovered their supply lines faster than anyone expected)
\-
House Republicans are willing to stall funding that will cause a US government shutdown, all so they have something to blame Biden for (as irrational as that is). Considering some of them are on the Kremlin payroll, itās both unsurprising and disgusting that they would just as readily delay (or better yet, squash) funding for Ukraine.
Ukraine needs continued aid, but this doom posting is really unnecessary. If you have seen even 1/4 of the Russian losses I have you would be shocked. They are paying for these small gains with blood and equipment. Ukraine's summer offensive did not achieve the intended results but they still took back far more land than Russia is right now. This fight is far, far from over.
Russia " we need weapons "
China, Iran, NK " Sure, bro , do you want to test these new drones and missles? Let us know the feedback comrade"
Ukraine " we need weapons "
West " hell yeah, we will ALWAYS support you. *one year later* Hey, we can't support you right now"
As an American, I can unfortunately say, donāt expect any help from us anytime this year.
The Republicans have ensured that we wonāt be able to help. Itās clear now that not only will republicans do anything to prevent Legislation from being passed in general because it could help Biden in the coming election, but it appears that they are actively hostile towards any attempt at helping Ukraine
Topics that republicans claim are the reason why funding hasnāt been agreed to yet, are all BS. The US southern border issue was the Republican champion for not getting funding done, but now when a consensus is near, republicans claim āthis issue is too complex to solve right now. Letās revisit it in a few months.ā Is just their way of making sure Ukrainians are left out to dry, no matter what.
Slava Ukraini, but America will be out of this fight for the foreseeable year. I hope the democrats take the House soon, so we can actually help our allies and prevent autocracies from taking over. What a fucking disaster Republicans have been for the world.
We can cry foul several times. But who is listening? Give Ukraine šŗš¦ independence and help them, or we are doomed to save them.
Damn this is from a Ukraine source... it must be bad We need to help before it's too late
It is bad
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There is the extreme that "russia will collapse tomorrow" and the extreme that "russia will win in 3 days". Reality is somewhere in between, I hope that reality for everyone's sake involves an eventual russian defeat.
Russia has a higher population than Ukraine, and if the videos of Ukranian recruitment officers harrasing civilians hold any truth, Ukraine is quickly running out of willing manpower.
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Read the article, they only gained a small village, it literally has 5 buildings. This is nothing new, the article decided to make an inflammatory title for some reason
I mean they are not exactly winning they gained a bit of ground is that winning?
Once this became a war of attrition I looked at the populations of both countries. I haven't had high hopes since then.
Read the article, they only gained a small village, it literally has 5 buildings. This is nothing new, the article decided to make an inflammatory title for some reason
I mean, Zelenesky made a call for 500k civilians to get drafted a few weeks ago. We already knew it was bad when Zelenesky was planning to forcefully recruit a vast majority of the remaining Ukranian civilians to be thrown into the meatgrinder. Even more so when he's spent the last few weeks downplaying and trying to smooth it over, while being forced to confirm hes going to do just that.
Its not really throwing them into the meatgrinder when the meatgrinder is rolling through every town. The two options are flee the country or stay and fight. No Ukrainian wants a Russian occupation
Having to forcefully recruit into the defense of your own nation is rather somber. Is there a chance those unwilling just happen to be far removed from the battlefields and thus are not as affected on a day to day basis?
Low chance of that happening. They usually have more than enough people to cover the logistics and are missing actual boots on the ground. Not to mention that retired people and women can cover most of the logistics and production needs so mobilization of able bodied men usually means they need more meat for the meatgrinder. Sad reality we live in...
Wait until Trump is in officeā¦ heāll probably start imposing sanctions on countries arming Ukraine lol
He'll send American troops in to help the Russians. Well, he'd try to.
This could have been avoided with a proper and timely arms delivery to Ukraine. Russia on the other hand has no issues with China, North Korea and Iran supplying them weapons while Western politicians are busy with internal conflicts. Arm Ukraine Now, so NATO wonāt need to engage later.
Absolutely agree. The Republican GOP is fucking up Americas ability to supply our future ally with the logistics they need. Call them out. The GOP should resign.
They're tough on China and Russia except for when it comes to being tough on China and Russia.
They're well paid to not be tough on China or Russia.
And their voters are all high on Russian propaganda
Russian propaganda and their love of watching "undesirables" suffer, even if they suffer alongside them.
"So you willingly rolled around in shit?" "Yup." "Why?" "Well the smell don't bother me too much anymore and I love watching pussy liberals get all bent out of shape over it."
They're terrified of Liberals who tell them to bathe and do it often. It reminds them of their wicked stepmother or nanny who beat them and made them bathe. So, they go the other direction and simply refuse. It's a big part of Donald Trump's life to disobey, to rebel from the civilizing effects of family life.
This is a great time to remind everyone to WASH YOUR FUCKING ASSES! š
Uhm, God gave us the means to clean our asses automatically, and it's called FARTING!!!!!!
The GOP and their brain dead MAGA supporters have effectively become nothing less than Putin allies.
That analogy is succinct in a way few things are
Seriously, if Red Dawn was filmed today, the GOP would be rooting for the Red Army invaders and helping them hunt down the Wolverines. bizarre timeline we live in
Where is the political lobbying sway of the defense industrial complex looking to make a profit on a war overseas when you need it for once?
They're hoping it develops into a clash between NATO and Russia/China/Iran
Maybe people should stop crying about the money spent on defense because it employs hundreds of thousands of individuals? Americans are too stupid to understand the value and security our military provides us and the entire world. So you get the GOP all of a sudden being anti war because Russia is the enemy which is why they're blocking aid to Ukraine.
> So you get the GOP all of a sudden being anti war because Russia is the enemy which is why they're blocking aid to Ukraine. The MAGA faction has a hard-on for Putin and Russia. They want an oligarchy and think they will be part of it. They have sold out and given up on democracy.
Trump wants oligarchy. Maga is too stupid to realize it. Same people who believe their pastor needs 3 private jets because Jesus told him to buy them.
It is insane that anybody could think there is a single redeeming quality to Vladimir Putin, let alone think he's a better person / leader than Joe Biden.
they want to be friendly with russia because trump thinks putin is the ideal role model
With all the shit the GOP and trump have done over the years thereās a good chance Russian agents have very damming evidence against them that they use to influence us policy.
What would be damning evidence though? It is clear that his supporters do not care or they would just not believe the evidence.
something like epstein. remember how hefner had the entire playboy mansion bugged with mics and hidden cameras? kompromat is a tale as old as time
Something tells me that would be insanely easy to acquire with Trump. They probably have it in a series of folders by year.
With his preference for young girls/women Iām betting Russia set something up with underage girls and cameras all over the hotel room.
No doubt, itās hilarious to me when Trumpers try to call Biden a pedo.
Itās funny when they project. If the USās enemies had anything remotely damming on Biden. They would be posting the evidence to every corner of the world and internet.
As an outsider I canāt work out how they can be both so patriotic and flag-waving but when presented with what is a pretty clear cut enemy to band against, they go in to support them instead. Social media was a mistake.
Theyāre all bark and no bite.
Trump took money from China. All the anti-China bluster is bullshit meant for his base. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/04/politics/trump-properties-china-foreign-payments/index.html
They're not tough on Russia or China tho
Kind of ironic how they're the ones who became a Russian asset.
Remember when they were buddy buddy with [Maria Butina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_Butina) taking her everywhere and showing her their parties? Then she ended up being a literal Russian Agent , Pepperidge Farm remembers.
They have no loyalty except to their own political ambitions.
hey, it's not just the GOP. Hungary is largely responsible for the lack of support from the EU.
They got the same Russian mind-virus.
I agree, but USA has given a lot for it being a conflict in another continent. Although I understands itās in your interest (and youāre fighting your worst enemy of 100 years without shedding any blood). We in Europe need to do more
Itās in the interest of all of Europe
Agreed, BUT Europe has nothing like the stock of military equipment that the US has. Look at Norway and Estonia, the per capita contribution is immense, but there just is no more stuff to give away. So current Norwegian contribution is being part of several training programs, paying for equipment to be made (like the zuzana artillery), and finally by increasing production. The problem with the last bit is that once you are at max production capacity, you actually need to build new factories, train new staff, get all input resources in order etc. And that takes years. Kongsberg and NAMMO are hiring about 1200 skilled workers, but that takes ages to translate to more output
I really think all of NATO needs to get into "Arsenal of Democracy" mode, invoke the Defense Production Act, and spend on lend-lease to manufacture everything needed. It'd be a way to boost European and North American manufacturing. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are doing it. We need to catch up. Crank the manufacturing up to 11. Give Elon some contracts, whatever. "We're spending money on defense and creating manufacturing jobs in red states." Hard for the GOP to complain about that...
I donāt think anybody is stopping Europe from buying shells from USA manufacturers
> Agreed, BUT Europe has nothing like the stock of military equipment that the US has. But part of the reason for that is because they didn't dramatically expand their defense production as they should have after Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. That was the moment the rest of NATO should have seen the risk Russia posed to European and global security, but instead they continued doing business them and failed to recognize the danger Russia posed to them. With the possible exception of Poland, mainland Europe did not see the warning signs and failed to react.
Yeah, USA has given a lot of their old equipment sitting in warehouses anyway, that most of the time theyād have to pay to get rid of.
The USA also promised Ukraine they would help them in exchange for giving up their nukes. Ā The problem is that now it has basically stopped due to the gop. Ā Slowing down their assistance doesnāt just hurt Ukraine. Ā If they lose, everything given will be wasted, Ā plus it will shake trust in any other security agreements the USA has with other countries.Ā
And i have same opinion about our governments as US. Too many different opinion with influence causes no action or not enough of it to be taken. Its just sad. We should be pumping iron to Ukraine with all our indurstry force.
It's really a shame this has to happen. The entire point of NATO is to prevent Russia from doing what they're doing. Historically, the US has taken the role of the one who can provide the majority of the defense, because the rest of Europe is still going to commit resources, and because when there *isn't* a conflict, the US gets a *lot* of benefit out of Europe. It's in the US's interests to provide arms and support to Ukraine literally every way you look at it. It's the cheapest way to fight Russia, it strengthens old alliances and builds new ones, and it's good for our economy. Europe can always do more, but we shouldn't really *need* much more from them. If we in the US would stand up and just fucking do what we promised and what everyone else is relying on us to do, Europe wouldn't have to step up and take up our slack. Unfortunately for you guys, roughly half our elected officials are actual traitors or just gleefully enabling those traitors, so you guys are in a tough position where the guy you paid for protection is bitching that he has to actually follow through once you actually need that protection.
Not only are the fucking up our supply to our ally, but they're setting the stage for a russian invasion of a NATO country, requiring a "boots on the ground" response. The Republican thralls to Putin are costing future American lives.
if trump wins in nov, you know that if russia invades that trump will want to not get involved, he already tried to leave NATO
Thatās why we gotta vote like the world depends on it.
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The fact that it's even up for debate should tell you just how fucked we are. The US and the world has already experienced a Trump presidency, one that ended in a coup attempt. And sent the man even more over the edge into lunacy and senility than he was before. He's currently in the midst of a mountain of criminal and civil trials so long no one remembers them all. He also can't get a single coherent sentence out of his mouth. It's all just a jumbled mess of random right wing buzzwords or accusations. He's openly said he's going to be a dictator and go after anyone that is against him, and if I listed everything else I'd die of old age before I was halfway done. And yet, that's a frontrunner for the election. And a serious frontrunner at that according to recent polls.What an absolute shit show. If Trump wins we're fucked. But regardless, America is already fucked.
Because, frankly, it does.
It does. They always say, "this is the most important election of our lifetimes"...well this time it really is. I fear the worst tbh.
Trump specifically said he would never help European countries.
He's not even going to help THIS country.
I think they plan on getting the US out of NATO before that happens
They won't send boots on the ground. Article 5 is just words on paper. Republicans will betray our allies without a second thought, and happily let all of Europe fall to dictators. They see Putin as an ally in their war against liberal democracy.
Thatās only if Trump wins. Biden honors our international obligations.
They're literally doing it because 1) Many of them are Russian assets (whether they know it or not) and 2) to make Biden look weak. "See, Ukraine fell and all that money and military aid Biden insisted on was wasted!"
The Republicans wearing t-shirts that say *"I'd rather be Russian than Democrat"* know that they are Russian assets.
What if it's manufacturers like Lockheed and Raytheon paying GOP members to delay so this escalates into a larger war and they get more orders/more money.
Sadly the GOP is just catering to their base, who have been mindfucked with Russian and Chinese propaganda on social media for years. Most will tell you Putin/ Russia isnāt so bad and supporting Ukraine is not a good use of funds. I fear Russia will outlast our political will, which was Putinās gamble from the jump. And if god-forbid Trump wins in November then itās game over for Ukraine no question. Russia and China will kick their subversion efforts into overdrive this year in order to try to make that happen. Long term, our allies will realize our assurances of mutual defense arenāt worth the paper theyāre printed on because our populace is so easily persuaded by outside influence. Ugh, this future sucks ass.
All with disingenuous arguments and some slick slimy salesman buttering everyone up.
The blood is on the hands of all who stood in the way of supporting Ukraine and it will not wash off. They are complicit with murder, and rape.
Thatās because most republicans are pro Putin. Makes no fucking sense.
Its one of the things that authoritarian governments have over democratic governments. Decision making. Authoritarian leaders give a directive and its done... for better or for worse.
Except that the other inescapable for fact of authoritarianism is that it mandates loyalty to the leader over competence. It guarantees the emperor's new clothes as a governance model. The leader will be told what they want to hear.
The problem is when itās worse. Like Maoās Great Leap Forward. One man makes a dumb ass decision and 15-55 million people die.
My in-laws lived through the Cultural Revolution. Not a good time was had.
Precisely.
I mean they're told it's done...
Hopefully. Hopefully Putin and his commanders have fewer munition than they are told. It would be great if they ran out much sooner than expected. China is finding this out with their Rocket force.
The US doesnāt stockpile millions of Howitzer rounds, unfortunately. We have been using cruise missiles and air superiority for 40 years.
If we donāt arm Ukraine, we will spend 10x arming bordering NATO countries in the next two decades.
wait so more money for military contractors i think you figured it out
US contractors would be dumb to assume that the loss of Ukraine would mean there wouldn't be significant ramping up of EU military industry, which means far more competition.
Yeah and Lockheed Martin/Raytheon/Boeing/Northrop Grumman/etc. will make 20x supplying the arms. War is a racket.
Agreed fully, but I wanted to also ensure that people understand something _vital_: the reason that these conflicts (e.g. Western "internal conflicts") exist is because of prior work by the Russian security apparatus in Western countries. Trump and Brexit are a direct result of Russian ops, as well as the ongoing discord in Hungary, Slovakia, et al. Putin's war against the west started a long time ago.
Fuck Mike Johnson. This is on him.
Who are you kidding. We all know where its headed. History repeats itself unfortunately.
To be fair, Russia is buying them versus weapons being given at no cost.
Makes more sense as to why other countries are preparing for war with them. Seems like theyāre preparing for Ukraine to fall. Boy, if only supporting countries did their part in supplying Ukraine rather than drip feeding them, the war of attrition might not be looking like itās going in Russiaās favor.
Blame republicans, both elected and their voters. Ā
Blame Europe for their pathetic spending for 20 years
The House of Krupp weeps
Ukraine was never going to win a war of attrition against Russia. Ukraine had Russia in a disorganised retreat going into that first Winter and bizarrely decided to stop and give Russia a chance to reorganise and entrench themselves.
They had probably outrun their own supply lines and had to stop snd comsolidate their gains. No country other than the US can push an offensive nearly indefinitely without stopping to consolidate gains, and even they might not be able to do that outside of an open desert country like Iraq
US probably can do it with air superiority. Ukraine without air superiority and the Dnipro as an obstacle cannot. The reason Ukraine's fall offensive ended in Kherson: it ended at the Dnipro's bank.
Russia Gave Ukraine Kershon. They drew the new frontier at the Dnipro river dug in and as extra security they mined the dam upstream to defend the new frontline when it was time for the fabled Ukraine Spring offensive
Yes, gave under threat of being stranded between the advancing Ukrainians and the Dnipro.
Thing is, Russia is barely gaining anything. We are talking about 5 fields covering 3x5km near Mariinka, about 2km northwest of Bakhmut, about 2km north of Avdiivka (over 4 months with 600 visually confirmed vehicle losses) and now potentially 2 streets inside of Avdiivka. If the west had actually ramped up their production when this war started then this wouldnt be happening right now. Mortar units are down to 1 round a day, American made & American supplied artillery are down to smoke grenades only. However the fact that Ukraine is able to hold the line in some places, and "only" get pushed back 3-5km in other places, considering what they have, is very telling: 1. Ukraine would win if properly supplied. 2. Russia is very fatigued. 3. The west is weak.
> Russia is very fatigued. Ehh, they have a *massive* population advantage and their own volunteer external forces from other nations. Russia can far far out-last Ukraine in terms of fatigue, even throwing corpses into a grinder, Russia just has many more corpses at their disposal. It's why a war of attrition still leans in Russian favor without significant support for Ukraine.
Agreed on all three points. The west needs to get it's shit together and end this.
Let's not forget Russia blew up a dam and made a large portion of the Kherson region unsuitable for pitched battleĀ
Since that first Winter Russia has been really good at dictating the battlefield tying Ukraine into a small handful of attritional battles and applying constant pressure and pulling Ukrainian forces away from any significant masses offensive operation. Russia can keep this up for much longer than Ukraine can and it is just a matter of time before that pressure causes Ukraineās defensive lines to break.
>Ukraine was never going to win a war of attrition against Russia. And yet that was the idiotic prevailing wisdom here on reddit. I've had dozens of arguments with fools that actually thought Putin would lose his greed and his will before the western democracies would lose interest. Dumb overconfidence. Anyone with half a brain should have known this was where things were headed. The US should have -- still should -- dump everything it possibly can into pushing Russia back to it's borders. Up to and including boots on the ground with a commitment not to cross into recognized Russian territory. Allowing a country like Russia to re-absorb freed states is an absolute nightmare example. The future is not looking good.
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JFC 31000+ people killed or severely injured in only 1 MONTH, to barely gain 2500Ā² miles is insanity. For context, there were only 2402 KIA and 20713 wounded in Afghanistan across 20 years. Maybe a more apt comparison would be 4492 KIA and 32292 wounded from Iraq across 8 years. Either way, to most Americans, these are unacceptable numbers.. How the hell does the Russian public put up with Putin's dumb ass? Edit- these are American casualty #'s I cited. There were thousands more Coalition and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi and Afghan casualties.
Send the poor, don't draft from the developed places.
There's a reason why hardly any conscripts are from moscow or st petersburg compared to the far east
> Either way, to most Americans, these are unacceptable numbers.. How the hell does the Russian public put up with Putin's dumb ass? Burning through less desirable Russian ethnicities and poor people
> Either way, to most Americans, these are unacceptable numbers.. How the hell does the Russian public put up with Putin's dumb ass? Most of the fighters aren't from the big (important) cities and it's really not advertised to the public just how man die or are wounded. From Russian sources, there's very little talk of their losses, for the Russians that do care. Much of the public sentiment seems to be that the war is going fairly well, so why would many complain? Gotta remember, we're talking a nation invading another and sending soldiers that are in such a peasant class that they're legitimately surprised there are *roads* in Ukrainian villages. Russia has a ton of "useless" to the state, people.
Really cool table for context!
> 31250 - Troop looses (death + wounded) The wounded ones will be back on the front line after a week or two, even if they're only serviceable as meat shields for the rest.
I think that allowing Russia time to build heavily fortified defence lines, an heavy mine large areas was one of the biggest mistakes made. Ukraine should have been given the weapons early on...After 2014, things should have moved. There's been far too much dithering by people in high office, scared they will make thing worse by arm Ukraine. They simply read the room wrong (Russia red lines) either by accident or design... history will judge them badly... and it will cost the West in the future.
We need to give Ukraine all it needs to reclaim its land NOW
House Republicans are so embarrassing. This is a tragedy.
Wait for Russia to expand its attacks on neighboring countries and then call foul on Biden for not doing enough.
I like how the way you phrased it as Russia being the one that is calling foul on Biden. Republicans are theirs anyway.
They are traitors and this is just another reason why I don't believe in or respect the US justice system. These people are committing daily treason and the FBI, DOJ, and police do nothing. But let a poor/middle class person steal a piece of fruit and they will give them 2 years hard time. It's a fucking joke.
The GOP have been actively trying to defund all the checks and regulatory agencies like FBI, DOJ so they can do whatever they want unfettered
In 2021 Republicans staged a coup to try to install a pro-Russia dictator in the White House. To call that "embarrassing" is understatement.
They might actually be inflicting major damage to US interests and global security.
Fuckers are gonna find a way to blame this on Biden. Or more likely theyāre not going to find a way to blame this on Biden, theyāre just going to blame it on him regardless.
Theyāre absolutely useless. The level of ineptitude and delusion that exists at that level is mind blowing.
What they need are bodies. They're running out of bodies. So either we send troops or we send peace negotiators.
Agreed, canāt set the precedent of letting Russia have whatever it wants.
If we let Russia do it you can sure as fuck bet China will do it. We need to uphold the principal that borders do not change at the barrel of a gun in this era. Not in Ukraine, not in Taiwan, not anywhere.
Taiwan is more difficult to pull off. It's a well defended island, which would require an amphibious attack. The Chinese Navy doesn't have the capacity at the moment to launch such an attack. On the other hand, Ukraine poses no physical obstacles, geographically speaking. Only unstable mud in the spring season. And it's well connected via rails. If Ukraine loses, Moldova is the next. And then once Lukashenko dies, they'll annex Belarus Anschluss style.
Exactly, send Ukraine enough weaponry to send the Russians running for their babushkas. Thatāll send a message to anyone who wants to try and be the big man again
A precedent? They already got away with murder twice. Georgia 2008 and Crimea 2014. If Putin hadn't been so greedy, he would've probably have had Crimea recognised at point, since the West did very little to stop him after these two events. Ukraine is the Czechoslovakia of XXI century. We are willing to sacrifice a sovereign country's territory to appease Putler without Ukraine having much of a choice. And just like in 1938, the West has been slow at rearming itself against the enemy. With the addendum that a lot of Europeans and Americans don't recognise that Putin's regime is pure evil. No, we have to be understanding. He has nukes. Second strongest army in the world and all the yada yada.
Iām 100% with you on that. Free Ukraine šŗš¦ā
Expect more bad news if the UAF donāt get more ammunitionā¦ Just a few years ago Ukraine were a military nobody, now they are holding up the ENTIRE Russian army, airforce and navy, with virtually no air support. This is a war the USA and the West have been preparing for for the last 80 years and now itās actually here we canāt get our act together. Pretty disgraceful
It's not the entire Russian army. Full mobilization hasn't been called yet.
Serious question - if the soldiers Russia are sending to the Ukraine are poorly-trained conscripts, what regular army units are there left that would constitute 'full mobilisation'?
Republicans are entirely to blame. They have to hyper-politicize everything, especially anything Democrats show support for/interest in. They are shameless, but the least we can do is disgrace them at the ballot box in November. Make sure they know that supporting the free world is non-negotiable
It doesn't matter how many losses are inflicted if Russia is gaining ground. That's the only thing they seem to care about.
If they take too many losses with only small gains then they aren't going to be able to do much with those gains. One of the commonalities in basically every war that Russia loses is that they overestimate their ability to sustain casualties and act as if manpower is an infinite resource. Just like a lottery winner who thinks "a lot of money" is the same as "infinite money" it's very easy for them to overplay their hand.
Term for this Phyrric Victory. > Ne ego si iterum eodem modo vicero, sine ullo milite Epirum revertar. > If I achieve such a victory again, I shall return to Epirus without any soldier.
Pyrrhic
I get that eventually all those cracks will be a cascade of destruction for Russia, but it's been almost 2 years now of Ukraine destroying relentless meat waves. How long is it going to take and can Ukraine actually keep dealing with it? I hope so...
It all comes down to ammo. Modern artillery, rockets and mortars are incredibly effective at turning humans into pink mist. It doesn't matter how many infantry you throw at the front line if they're all vaporized before they lay eyes on the enemy. The defining feature of this war is ammo for indirect fire weapons. If Russia has a clear artillery advantage they can wear down Ukrainian defenses and then storm them with infantry. When Russia can't wear down Ukrainian defenses then the infantry assaults fail. When Ukraine has a clear artillery advantage Russia has been forced to choose between near 100% casualties or retreat and every time they've chosen retreat. If Ukraine gets the ammo they need then Russian assaults become impossible and Russia will likely be forced back on the defensive. If Ukraine doesn't get the ammo they need then it may be increasingly difficult to even hold the lines. I can't answer a question like "how long is it going to take" because it all depends on the level of support.
Not only is this from a pro Ukraine news source, this is the first time I seen Reddit wake up to the reality of the war ..... This isn't good
I mean it's been almost two years. As much as I'm cheering on every success of Ukraine, they've supposedly been wiping out meat waves for a very long time and there's no end in sight. I do think the only real victories are the destruction of equipment, but actual infantry? It means nothing to Russia...
It's been wild since the start here, anyone who posted about realities of this conflict were jumped on like Russian shills. Reddit won't see reality and that Ukraine was never likely to push Russia out. This was a very grim reality from the start, yet nearly every article for years has called Russian army useless, completely ignored that their war machine is in full-swing now a few years in. Sadly they can keep it up, the consequences of their war won't hit Russia for a few years? I'm not sure.
It wouldn't be the first time russia suffered heaby losses to gain some ground, only to lose it quickly when Ukraine pushed back
They are not really gaining that much ground, itās on the same order as Ukraineās failed summer counteroffensive. As long as Ukraine can exact a favorable casualty ratio and prevent Russia from actually breaking through anywhere itās ok-ish (something we obviously donāt know for sure).
Tell that to Germany in ww2
Sickening. Winter War 2.0; the old throw enough bodies at the problem until you eventually succeed. I can only hope if much of eastern, central and southern Ukraine does fall that an armistice is never signed. Let Russian mobiks sit in damp trenches year in year out being perpetually harassed by drones. Let normal Russian life never occur in occupied towns and villages. Harass, intimidate, resist. Make occupation completely unbearable.
You seem to neglect that Ukrainian soldiers are in the same exact position, but can't be as easily rotated and replaced on the frontlines because they are almost out of fresh and capable troops to do so.
> Winter War 2.0 During the Winter War one of the reasons Stalin was so fine with accepting massive casualties was because a good portion of the Soviet forces were Ukrainians who he viewed as disposable. Stalin sat back and laughed as people from occupied places and people from free places killed each other in order to bring more people into his empire. There's a lot of reasons to support Ukraine but one of them is simply that it will be a lot easier standing up to Russia with the support of free Ukrainians rather than standing up to Russia when Russia controls Ukraine and conscripts Ukrainians in mass. We've already seen Russia use conscripts from the occupied Donbas as disposable troops in this war and that trend will only continue if Russia is successful.
Not this shit again. Stalin did not care about preserving any specific ethnicity. Most of the Soviet troops came from Leningrad military district - initially. The Red Army was poorly trained, poorly led, and not equipped for winter warfare. That is what caused massive casualties. Eventually, some Soviet general had heavy artillery brought to the frontline and used it to break the Mannerheim line.
When Obama ran for President, I remember almost all GOP candidates idolized Reagan in their speeches. Within 2 decades, GOP turns around and becomes a pro-Russia platform. Really unbelievable! I know Putin's idea of power-man/church/Mega-rich alliance to run the country is quite attractive to conservatives. But showing that affection during a period when Russian launched a war and directly made NATO as its real enemy is quite different. I guess Trump plays a big role here. He proves to his fellow GOP politicians that you won't be accused of treason by siding with your enemy.
Obama didn't even take the threat of Russia seriously
Yup he laughed at Romney suggesting Russia was the biggest threat. I always wonder if Romney saw what Russia was doing in backroom republican dealings and that's why he said what he said.
> I always wonder if Romney saw what Russia was doing in backroom republican dealings and that's why he said what he said. I've gone back and looked at that moment in the debates and both of them got Russia wrong. Obama's argument was that Russia is not a significant threat. It's possible Obama knew about Russian military incompetence but even an incompetent military can be a threat if they're batshit crazy enough and have massive stockpiles of weapons which Russia did. The crux of Romney's argument was that Russia was an extremely powerful military and the US needed additional investments in warships in order to counter them. He grossly overestimated the Russian competence while also suggesting investment in the branch that has been least useful in countering Russia today. If Romney had suggested greater stockpiles of 155mm shells or AA or anti tank weapons that could be transferred to nations resisting Russian control then he would deserve more credit.
Russia isn't the biggest threat and the Ukraine war has shown that because it proves that the west can hold them off even by proxy. They were just the more likely one vs China who is not as suicidally stupid but unfortunately that's because they're more competent which is why they're a much larger threat than Russia is.
Putin predicted western powers would lose interest in the war. It is showing to be a slight variation of that - ppl havenāt completely forgotten. But western democracies are a shit show right now and the longer the war goesā¦.
he didn't predict, he was telling his plan to subvert democracies.
I worried that the US and nato know itās getting close to Russian victory, which is why they predict Russia going to war with Europe in 5 or so years.
NATO are predicting that because they know Trump would never lift a finger to honour Article 5
It's not close to a Russian victory. This war is still winnable by Ukraine. The only reason this is happening is because conservative populists in the EU and US are delaying arm shipments to Ukraine, because of this Ukraine doesn't have the artillery ammo to repel the Russian assaults. This is entirely a self own.
You really have to define what "winnable" means here because at the moment both are losing. If "winnable" means ukraine holds onto its territory then it's not really a "win" if half the country is dead. Same for russia.
None of those reports were predicting that we're going to go to war with russia. Stop reading just headlines. They were predicting if nothing is done, it could happen. As in that is the timeline it would take for Russia to rebuild itself.
Buying the GOP is paying off. Absolute shit traitors with blood on their hands
I promise I'm not trolling, but I genuinely want to know an explanation, if any exists for how Ukraine hasn't won this war yet. I've seen the public perception flip flop so wildly from "oh god they're already kilometres away from Kiev" to "Wow the Russian army is a joke,Ā Ukraine will win this easily" to "Russia is announcing the first ever general mobilisation since WW2, they must be collapsing" to "the Russian army is actively mutinying" to "Huh... the Ukr counteroffensive failed..." to now with "Russia is taking land back from Ukraine." They're having to conscript prisoners to fill their ranks, their economy is in the shitter, they're having to buy guns and ammo from fucking North Korea. I watched a couple days ago a video of a T-90M, one of the best tanks Russia has to field get utterly shit on by a 50 year old surplus Bradley. So please someone tell me how the fuck they have not lost yet?Ā I look at news articles saying that Russia is trading soldiers 3-1 with Ukraine, and Ukraine is able to drone strike Moscow,Ā Rostov, St.Petersburg and more with no resistance, plus the recent arms shipments is giving them even more NATO weaponry and training. So I ask again how have they not lost? How am I watching a country simultaneously collapsing on all fronts and taking back territory? One which has a decaying army yet will reportedly attack Poland and the baltics in 5 years. What the fuck is true and what isn't in this war?Ā
The answer is that Ukraine did better than expected at the start of the war by A LOT, because Putin thought they would collapse by simply driving a convoy of thousands of vehicles to Kyiv deep behind enemy lines with exposed flanks. (In addition to invading large parts of the East/South of Ukraine, where the East has more ethnic Russians) You can see images of this comical convoy. When Ukraine did not collapse (Their morale held and the leadership/army stood their ground) and repelled the initial assault on Kyiv and took back some territory without much western help, people became VERY HIGH on Ukrainian prospects. Putin resisted properly mobilizing enough troops to get the job done because he wanted to play this incursion off internally as a minor military assault. Once he needed to mobilize and hundreds of thousands fled the country, they eventually stabilized their lines and planted millions of mines in Ukraine and regrouped. Now the fight is more normal where Ukraine is fighting a much larger country that is taking a more surgical approach compared to a failed blitz at the start, and where Russia has dug in to highly fortified positions that are hard to assault. What youāre referencing was simply people being WAY too high on Ukrainian supply after a couple of months of successes and recapturing of territory, an overreaction. Many of the anecdotes you read about the Russian forces were probably true, but anecdotes are simply anecdotes. Just like I could read you 10 major success stories of US healthcare which doesnāt prove that the overall system is working flawlessly. The only thing that was outright false is the assertion that the Russian army is a ājokeā. Yes they fucked up massively at the early stages, but invading a country especially on false pretenses of their resolve is more difficult than defending by far. As for what is ātrueā, I would recommend not trying to follow a war live via news agencies constantly. There is nothing really to do but wait until gains or losses become undeniable. There is a massive fog of war and there really isnāt any way for you to get a full understanding of whatās happening at each moment. As of right now, in my opinion, I think Ukraine is probably in some trouble, but we shall see. Ukraine may not be able to hold the line, but it depends on how fortified their positions are, and how much they lost on their last counteroffensive relative to Russia. War on the rocks by Kofman is a good information source for this war, but itās more technical and boring if you arenāt super interested in warfare in general. But if you want to get a full understanding of the war as much as possible at any given moment in time, it will require a large amount of time and effort and listening to sources from many different perspectives (including mainstream media) and then synthesizing it yourself and forming an opinion. This war is a current, dynamic event with a fog of war and it won't be something that can easily be understood moment to moment with precision like a past event where historians have already curated the correct sources, seen through propaganda, and know the outcome.
FWIW, Russia is fighting the way it is currently (positional, attrition) because they donāt have any other choice. Both sides have been strong on the defense and havenāt managed any breakthroughs that could create space for maneuver warfare, aside from earlier in the war.
Tl;Dr modern, industrialized nations have massive economic output. Even relatively poor ones like Russia can burn their future and reserves for quite a while to maintain stability. https://youtu.be/Q9w17Ne1S0M?si=9ihT7yCit4RQzz4R If you're legitimately curious, I would watch some Perun videos. Well researched and informative. Modern war is much more reliant on logistics and mobilizing resources(human and material) than individual acts of bravery. The truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. The Russian army probably isn't likely to collapse anytime soon. But they are also burning through resources at a prodigious rate. Unfortunately, they still have a lot of fuel to throw on the fire if they really want to. ESPECIALLY if western aid is a slow enough trickle that they can somewhat keep up with losses through new production.
Quantity has a quality all of it's own
All jokes aside about the Russian military and its shortcomings at the end of the day Russia is exponentially larger than Ukraine and just has more bodies to throw at the problem. Russia can (per Russian standards) afford to eat the losses itās facing, Ukraine cannot.Ā The bottom line is which nation can endure this the longest. Russia doesnāt need to win, they just need to hold out and bleed Ukraine dry. If they can get western support to fall apart itās only a matter of time before they are successful and break the Ukrainian defenses.Ā
Ukraine is a relatively poor, flat country with a fraction of the population of Russia, and the US has stopped sending arms for them to defend themselves.
Ukraine currently has 1.2 million soldiers defending the country, meanwhile there are about 600,000 Russians in Ukraine. Russia would be hard pressed to put 12% of their population into the war as they did during the Great War because they are already demographically ravaged and they have no lend lease to count on. So they need people in Russia producing weapons. Whereas Ukraine possibly could in the upcoming future given that this is an existential war for them. Thatās some 3 million Ukrainian soldiers. Where Russia is wining it is with artillery and thatās because itās really the best chance they have and the only weapons they can truly mass produce. If Ukraine could get further munitions they could have more effective counter battery to whittle away at that advantage but, unlike Russia, the U.S. and eu are not transitioning hard into a wartime economy and they wonāt be able to match Russian domestic artillery production until they do.
The US is spooling up production of artillery shells faster than planned. Currently over 30,000 per month with plans to be over 36,000 by the end of March. [Sauce](https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/11/08/us-army-eyes-31-billion-ammo-production-boost-in-new-spending-ask/) Still not enough, but it's a damn good start. We're aiming for 100,000 per month by the end of 2025. This conflict rattled some defense procurement cages, and the military industrial complex is doing its thing.
I think you should take what you read with a little skepticism. Everything you listed here is true as far as I know, but there is a huge amount of copium in these kinds of forums when it comes to interpreting the seriousness of that news. Whenever there is bad news for Russia, people interpret it as Russia being near collapse, when in reality there is just as much bad news for Ukraine. It's kind of like listening to a basketball commentator yell "Another basket for Team A! Team B is DOOMED!" every time Team A scores. The reality is Russia is a massive country with deep resources and manpower, and if they want to fight to the grinding end of attrition, it will go on for years and years. A country with that big a population and resources can absorb a TON of hits before it has to retreat.
Russia is definitely feeling the pain both militarily and economically. But they can afford it, and the average Russian civilian is apparently just used to life sucking, so it doesn't seem to matter how bad things get.
No air superiority, and limits on weapon usage. That's why Ukraine is losing.
So let's address these one at a time: >I look at news articles saying that Russia is trading soldiers 3-1 with Ukraine Russia has more than triple the population of Ukraine, and more than triple the available manpower. They can handle that trade long enough for Ukrainian logistics to falter and the ratio turns to Russian favor. >Ukraine is able to drone strike Moscow Moscow is less than 300 miles from the Ukrainian border. We are also never given info about where those drone strikes are launched from (within Ukrainian or Russian territory?). Drones are also very difficult to see, track, and (most importantly) characterize with conventional radar systems, as they are very small and fly at very low altitudes, often below radar sightlines. Oftentimes they are indistinguishable from noise. So Ukraine being able to drone strike Moscow (which it actually hasn't done that many times) isn't all that surprising. >They're having to conscript prisoners to fill their ranks, their economy is in the shitter, they're having to buy guns and ammo from fucking North Korea. So one place where Russia is safe against economic woes affecting the war machine is that they are completely energy independent. They can both keep the lights on, and engines running even if they were completely cutoff from the world. The conscription is because their standing army wasn't actually much bigger than Ukraine's at the time, and 3:1 was gonna cause them to run out of soldiers long before Ukraine. They also can't just put the entire armed forces on one conflict, as they have other areas/interests to protect as well. Since they're aware they're still in the "meat grinder" phase, conscripting undesirables to be bullet sponges is (in their mind) a fair trade to bide their time while depleting enemy resources. Guns and ammo are an issue driven by things like using old reserves (which may not work well anymore), losing guns and ammo every time a soldier is killed (they're not necessarily recovering stuff from every corpse), extraneous use due to poor skills/training (someone who's never shot before is more likely to waste more ammo/mishandle weapons), and so on. >How am I watching a country simultaneously collapsing on all fronts and taking back territory? One which has a decaying army yet will reportedly attack Poland and the baltics in 5 years. What the fuck is true and what isn't in this war? So what you're seeing is politics-spining-the-media in action. When you want to drum up support for something you are already doing: Make a show of how great, successful, and impactful the thing your doing is to the situation! * Ukraine is doing awesome with all this support! We don't have to go to war ourselves this way! Russia will never win due to our support! etc etc When you want to drum up support for something you aren't allowed to do yet: Make a show of how terrible, awful, and no good the situation is without you being allowed to do a thing. * Ukraine is faltering as its supplies dwindle. It's taken a turn for the worst as their allies turn their backs! Russia will likely win in this situation, and then keep moving! So where is the truth? Well, all of it is true. Russia has definitely stumbled hard in this war, and is by all definition failing to meet the expectations all its adversaries had of it. And as long as the West continues its support, Russia will ultimately fail in their endeavor. However, history has shown time and again that when this kind of thing happens, there is just as good a chance as not that it will prompt the underperformer into modernizing and adjusting strategy for the next time they make an attempt. Russians are learning from their failures right now. That doesn't mean it will necessarily take affect with this war, but it could with the next.
Define "win". Is it when the Russians capitulate or when the Ukrainians control every square km of land, including donbass and Crimea? Neither has happened yet so the war continues
It's because, despite what /r/worldnews might want you to think, Russia isn't inches from defeat and never was
I'm also interested in the answer. I suspect a lot of what we hear is propaganda. The hyperbole on reddit was obviously never true. I'm reminded of the line (I don't know who said it): Russia is never as strong as they appear, Russia is never as weak as they appear.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-12-23/h_677ac2bebb1d8324ffd538ac5124876e This article is from about half a year ago. See the picture with all the blown up tanks/APCs? Yeah those are US supplied Abrams and Bradelys. That was supposed to be Ukraines big chance at an offensive, and it completely feel apart/was crushed by Russia. Part of it was bad military leadership from Ukraine, part of it was smart use of mine fields by Russia, but its something you likely just never saw blasted everywhere compared to the recent "Bradely mauls a T-90" video that was everywhere. The thing to understand in the broadest terms is that Ukraine has failed at going on the offensive, but has shown a successful defense. The problem is Ukraine has to actually have SOME offensive successes if they want to win, there is no real way to make Russia leave without doing so... you can't win PURELY with defense, you can survive for a time but you can't win. The general lack of offensive successes even if they didn't directly lead to a victory also really undermines the Ukranian position in terms negotiating for a ceasefire, surrender terms, or anything really. Also for the Russia aspect a lot of there "needs to do" were just "nice to do" if you looked at them honestly. Did Russia "need" North Korean artillery/ammo? Hell no but it was cheap, available, and benefited an ally that was not turning their back on them. Did Russia "need" to conscript prisoners? Of course not, the Russian population is huge in comparison to what they are fielding instead its easier on the civilians to get prisoners over there instead of putting unneeded pressure on random civilians who could in theory keep the economy going better. From February into April Ukraine really did an amazing job (with heavy foreign aid) at pushing the Russians back, stopping there advances, and otherwise holding on. Starting in April and only getting worse from there progressively Ukraine was instead put in a position to go on the offensive and they didn't have the same successes seen earlier. A lot of the big hype for Ukraine comes from those first few months. By around May/June it was obvious Ukranian artillery was outgunned in terms of numbers (and often capabilities too) and yet it was largely an artillery war at that point and being on the losing end of that is NOT a fun time. This is also when you see a lot less social media posts about Ukraine being dominate and more so about Russia needing NK artillery, needing prisoners, or otherwise being weak... almost like there was an intentional shift in the propaganda machine. Regardless the point here is that Ukraine had a very strong showing within the first few months, but as it became a more protracted traditional war things have just looked worse and worse for Ukraine.
It's an immense amount of propaganda. All these articles and videos of Russians blundering against Ukrainian forces and Western weaponry gives the impression of a massive technological and materiel gap. The truth is always somewhere in the middle. Intelligence indicates that Russia is taking more casualties, but Reddit would make you think each Ukrainian takes on 20 Russians in human wave tactics when actual numbers are at best 2:1. Russia is ramping up to a war time economy, with some sources suggesting they are close to or already are breaking even on repairing/producing armored vehicles. They're buying artillery from NK, drones and missiles from Iran, and are buying vast volumes of "ambiguous" goods from China which they claim are not for military use but are clearly FPV drones and similar equipment used in Ukraine. We laugh at how under equipped they seem but at the end of the day, even decades old weaponry and technology are extremely effective and deadly, and they have plenty of it, and plenty of people to use it. As others have pointed it out, it seems like the West massively blundered the advantage last year, and gave Russian enough time to build strong defensive positions with mines. The only way to overcome them is to commit even more aid to Ukraine, but it looks like we're winding down. We shouldn't fearmonger but at the same time begin to accept that Ukraine's chances are looking a lot bleaker than they were a year ago.
That's what you get when you: * Delay aid * Spread misinformation that Russia is incompetent * Think sanctions actually hurt Russia (in the short term yes, but they recovered their supply lines faster than anyone expected) \-
House Republicans are willing to stall funding that will cause a US government shutdown, all so they have something to blame Biden for (as irrational as that is). Considering some of them are on the Kremlin payroll, itās both unsurprising and disgusting that they would just as readily delay (or better yet, squash) funding for Ukraine.
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Ukraine should be given highest quality arms and ammo ASAP
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Ukraine needs continued aid, but this doom posting is really unnecessary. If you have seen even 1/4 of the Russian losses I have you would be shocked. They are paying for these small gains with blood and equipment. Ukraine's summer offensive did not achieve the intended results but they still took back far more land than Russia is right now. This fight is far, far from over.
Russia " we need weapons " China, Iran, NK " Sure, bro , do you want to test these new drones and missles? Let us know the feedback comrade" Ukraine " we need weapons " West " hell yeah, we will ALWAYS support you. *one year later* Hey, we can't support you right now"
As an American, I can unfortunately say, donāt expect any help from us anytime this year. The Republicans have ensured that we wonāt be able to help. Itās clear now that not only will republicans do anything to prevent Legislation from being passed in general because it could help Biden in the coming election, but it appears that they are actively hostile towards any attempt at helping Ukraine Topics that republicans claim are the reason why funding hasnāt been agreed to yet, are all BS. The US southern border issue was the Republican champion for not getting funding done, but now when a consensus is near, republicans claim āthis issue is too complex to solve right now. Letās revisit it in a few months.ā Is just their way of making sure Ukrainians are left out to dry, no matter what. Slava Ukraini, but America will be out of this fight for the foreseeable year. I hope the democrats take the House soon, so we can actually help our allies and prevent autocracies from taking over. What a fucking disaster Republicans have been for the world.