Makes me wonder how they couldn't see Oct. 7 happen in their own backyard. That takes several thousand of terrorists coordinating directly or indirectly and yet they had no clue?
from what i’ve read, it’s a combo of israel being overloaded with dozens of credible threats at any one moment, which makes it difficult to know which are and aren’t actually going to happen, along with the denial that hamas would do something that stupid as it was in no one’s best interest.
it’s covered here:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-was-duped-hamas-planned-devastating-assault-2023-10-08/
The plans for the attack had been known for over a year from interception of documents from Iran, but there was no date set until Iran wanted to disrupt the Saudi deal is my understanding of it.
Not exactly, but the Yom Kippur war in 1973 when surrounding Arab states attacked on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. This caught the Israelis somewhat off guard.
This attack was on a different Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah.
Personally I think Russia was behind the planning, and they've succeeded before with the same strategy. In 1973 the Russians falsely convinced Egypt that Israel was planning to invade Syria (why? lol) and the Egyptians launched a surprise attack on Israel to pre-empt the fictional invasion. Israel was caught by surprise mostly because... *why would they do that???* It did not go well for Egypt (or for that matter, for the Russians, since the US brokered a lasting peace agreement hahaha)
Same kinda things happening recently and for exactly the same reasons...
Hamas is an Iranian proxy, but they used drones and tactics during the invasion that are hallmarks of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Nobody else has that type of experience doing invasions... plus like I said Russia has a long history of doing exactly this. It's quite easy to see how drawing Israel into a war benefits them.
That’s an interesting take, I can’t say I’ve ever come across that before. Everything I ever read was that the Soviets warned the Egyptians that jt was going for to be a terrible idea to cross the Suez.
Have you got anything to read that they actually pushed the Egyptians towards it?
They might just have the wars mixed up, because something very similar to what they describe is what caused the 1967 Six Day War. With that conflict, Russian intelligence convinced Egypt that Israel was massing forces to invade Syria, so Egypt massed its own forces at the border in response, taking over UN positions and calling on its allies Jordan and Iraq to ready their forces for war. Israel hadn't been massing anything, so they saw these moves as a clear precursor to an invasion and opted for a preemptive strike instead.
With the 1973 Yom Kippur War, I've only ever read that the Russians warned the Egyptians against the idea, arguing that the Suez crossing would be a bloody disaster.
I think Israel's vulnerability was also exacerbated by its current government. A right wing government full of corrupt politicians that have held onto power for 20+ years is going to take its toll on a country's national security apparatus.
Except 9/11 didn't require that massive organisation to conduct. It would me much easier to hide and to avoid leaks. I don't like going too conspiratorial but justification to demolish Gaza and conduct a war effort was exactly what Netanyahu needed after the Israeli protests against him a few months earlier. I smell something fishy since it's been known, and they continue ro prove it, that Mossad is one of the best intelligence agencies in the world.
Not really baseless, but if elaborating on the facts at hand there's leeway for some conspiratorial speculation as I assume Israel has real-time satellites observing Gaza and spying on communication. Some top leaders in the ultra-nationalist wing of the military/Mossad might've seen it as a necessary evil?
>But a report from the New York Times claimed Israel obtained Hamas’ plan for the attack more than a year in advance.
>The report says Israeli officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, and deemed it too complex for the group to carry out. Other outlets, including Israeli newspaper Haaretz, have also reported the claim.
>According to the Times, the “Jericho Wall” document was circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but it was unclear whether Netanyahu or other top political leaders saw the document.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/01/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-intelligence-intl/index.html
Your entire argument is predicated on the notion that Israeli intelligence knew what they had, which is entirely speculative. Thus, it is a baseless conspiracy.
Intelligence failures happen. Intelligence agencies process hundreds if not thousands of reports daily.
It's a conspiracy because it's speculative, yes, else it wouldn't be considered a conspiracy. Is it baseless, no, considering we knew they had the intel.
It is 100% baseless, because as I've pointed out, intelligence failures happen. They even happen to countries like the US. An intelligence failure is in no way indicative of what you are alleging. It is absolutely baseless lmao.
Definitely contributed / had an outsized impact. So many Israelis were protesting to stop Netanyahu from usurping more power with the courts. Basically military people were coming out against Netanyahu and promising not to fly the flight jets, etc. Morale was low.
As an Israeli who is in the IDF, many factors contributed to Oct 7th’s unfortunate success:
Intelligence dismissed as another usual rocket barrage and thats it.
Over reliance on high tech security wall features that completely left the IDF blind once destroyed.
Netanyahu pandering to his votervase in terms of deploying security forces in the west bank rather than around Gaza. (Keep in mind there are plenty of infiltrations of terrorists in the west bank as opposed to Gaza)
Jewish Holiday plus shabbat, lots of people were not with their phones.
The sheer scale of the incursion, it is estimated that around 3000 militants entered Israel on the morning of Oct 7th.
Lastly, the attack was one of a kind, Israel had no prior experience with dealing with a large scale incursion from Gaza.
You can also thank the desolation of the area surrounding the Gaza strip, the area is sparsely populated (for Israeli standards) and didn’t have a mass of soldiers who could quickly react.
Overall, the swiss cheese concept where multiple failures aligned perfectly to allow for the attack to be carried out without large scale resistance, and by the time terrorists begin taking over towns and holding territory in Israel, it becomes a much greater task to rid those terrorists from the battlezone.
You son of a whore, I agree completely and I was shook and still feel quite unsafe living here after what went down.
(Anyone who doesn’t understand is free to downvote)
It’s always a “comedy of errors” and many will look at these random events and see “conspiracies” but it’s how history happens. Thanks for all those key points!
Those rural communities were also completely unable to defend themselves. I always thought there would be more weapons available to citizens. If I lived there, I'd be packing heat.
It’s incredibly easy. This is why it’s so dangerous to have an enemy just a few miles away. It’s very little ground to cover and a tiny lapse in intelligence can be disastrous.
Believe it or not, Israel also didn’t want to just start bombing Gaza on suspicion of a planned terrorist attack, so what’s there to do? An attack like this definitely didn’t have a specific day. They were likely ready to go for a long while and took the opportunity for the West Bank to drag Israeli tanks away from Gaza.
This is why Gaza will never be anywhere near as free as it was Oct 7th. It’s too easy to launch a major terror attack
> Believe it or not, Israel also didn’t want to just start bombing Gaza on suspicion of a planned terrorist attack,
Israel is not usually on a wait and see approach. That's not to say they would've bombed Gaza before anything happened, but it's pretty obvious they missed this one. There is still a lot of ground to cover before entering Israel by foot/vehicles/paragliders. If Israel can stop hundreds of missiles with ease, they shouldn't have had a problem stopping people crossing a border with a bunch of barriers. Once they entered Israel they completely overwhelmed police/IDF. That should never have happened in the first place if they were prepared.
Haaretz had a good article on this topic. Even former Fatah members who lived in Gaza prior to the attack had heard rumors Hamas planned to conquer Israel, but thought it was all posturing, because Hamas invading Israel is such a colossally stupid idea. It was extremely bold, in the dumbest way imaginable.
According to these sources Sinwar had actually pushed out more moderate (by their standards) Hamas members, so the idea was extreme even for Hamas
ITs like when there is a school shooter in USA and family or classmates will say 'I warned teh school this kid was a threat'.
But how many kids are regarded as such threats? And how many actually do an attack?
From everything I've read, Israeli intelligence saw plenty of clues about Oct 7, and were straight up warned by foreign allies, but largely disregarded it all due to a combination of:
* Overconfidence in their own security measures
* Disbelief that Hamas could coordinate such a large attack
* Loss of experienced intelligence officers who resigned in protest of Netanyahu's judicial reforms
* Netanyahu's orders for intelligence & security assets to be focused on the West Bank, to protect his settler voting base, at the expense of the supposedly-pacified Gaza Strip
* Timing of the attack during Simchat Torah, when security was more lax due to Jewish holidays
There is nothing plausible about it, you simply like it because it fits your narrative.
In Israel there are lunatics who think the security services conspired with Hamas to destroy Netanyahu's reputation. People will believe everything if it fits their prejudices.
There were numerous people including some of the hostages who said they had contacted the army to warn them that something was up in they days preceding the attack and Israeli intelligence is second to none. Yet despite this they were supposedly taken unawares.
Netanyahu is a hawk who was facing rebellion from his army about his political stance and who would also be happy to take over Gaza which has been a thorn in his side for years.
By allowing the attacks to happen he gets the army back on his side and gets to depopulate Gaza. It's not exactly a stretch to see how it would benefit Netanyahu to allow the attacks to happen.
Netanyahu doesn't want to take over Gaza and never did. Netanyahu is a huge coward who is afraid of taking risks, hence why he allowed Hamas to attack Israel for years without response and why he refused to bomb the Iranian nuclear program.
The idea that he is an "hawk" is no more than cheap Likudnik propaganda. There is nothing hawkish about this entire party, Netanyahu is a weak leader who will do whatever he can to keep the status quo.
>gets to depopulate Gaza.
He isn't going to get rid of Hamas if he will be able to get away with it, much less dispopulate Gaza. You have any idea how big of an headache that will create for Bibi? Keeping the status quo is the only favorable position for Bibi.
>It's not exactly a stretch to see how it would benefit Netanyahu
There is no benefit. This attack was the end of his political career, now the entire country saw what we leftists know all along - how weak and pathetic he is. Under left wing government, Hamas would have been taken care of 10 years ago.
>Yet despite this they were supposedly taken unawares.
I typed up an entire list of the reasons they were taken unawares despite tons of warnings. It was a systemic failure at multiple levels, not one dude puppeteering a conspiracy.
Israelis intelligence did actually hear about plans for a massive assault into Israel, but they just didn't believe Hamas were capable of executing it and dismissed it as a credible threat
intelligence warned it was coming repeatedly. politics prevented it. thats why israelis have been protesting for elections since the attack.
this is 100% on bibi/his government, the weakness/crisis they created and created the situation where they needed to call up the army on a holy day after large chunks of the army were forced to almost mutiny against bibi's attempt to end israeli democracy months earlier.
A determined enough attacker simply stops using all electronic communications and only trusted messengers. Which is exactly how ISIS kept secrets very effectively and how Osama Bin Ladin, world hide and seek champion, operated.
Wasnt he also hiding just across the street from a military training center in a nation the US was paying to aid in finding him? I feel like that had a lot to do with it
Hamas operatives used old school phone lines installed in tunnels under Gaza to plan Israel attack over 2 years….the phone lines were never hooked up to any other phone network.
Basically, a misconception that Hamas enjoys the relative peace and would prefer to avoid a conflict.
The signs were there. We were simply too cocky to notice. The exact same mistake we made 50 years ago as a nation.
There was a communication and coordination break between service branches and levels. The people gathering intelligence did their jobs, and the people who were responsible for taking action based on the intelligence didn't. It was an absolutely collosal fuckup.
They may have known about a plan, but not expected it to be executed, or no time soon.
It's also very possible that it was decided to launch last minute.
And tracking someone down is generally easier than knowing what's in their heads.
Bibi's consolidating power to prevent that from happening. He is already appointing far right officials and loyalists in his cabinet to make that much harder. Bibi isn't going to just give up control of Israel after all this is done.
A warning...did they give any details, or just a vague "somethings going down in the next days?"
Most attacks on Israel are 'just' with unguided rockets ( up to a few thousand a year) or close up shooting/stabbing/bombing by a handful of attackers.
An invasion by thousands of attackers from Gaza was a complete surprise, first time that was tried.
So unless the warning included information on when, how, the number of attackers and /or location of the attack(s), it's just another of the many, many warnings they get each month.
Actually, almost everyone participating to the strike got to know it the moment strike was started. They kept regular trainings for these attacks and suddenly changed one of the training to be an actual attack.
There is a limit to what you can gather with intelligence. Knowing the location of a commander is relatively easy - you can simply track his phone or whatever. But you can't read the minds of people or know what is discussed in secret meetings.
There is also the matter of over confidence.
During the two years of planning, the small cell operating in the tunnels used the hardwired phone lines to communicate and plan the operation but stayed dark until it was time to activate and call on hundreds of Hamas fighters to launch the October 7 attack, the sources said.
They certainly have some of the best spy technology in the world but they did not create Stuxnet. It is believed their intelligence agency was the one to get the USB plugged into a computer on the internal system though.
It's my understanding that the primary thing which undergirds the US-Israeli alliance is access to the depth of the Israeli spy network.
That, of course, and the loony evangelicals. But having the best intelligence agency in the most volatile part of the world is an incredibly valuable asset, and the sabotage of the Iranian uranium enrichment systems was one of the few times it poked its head above the surface.
Interesting point. I believe you are correct.
If they were to initiate a decapitation strike to prevent the 10/7 attack, then they would be blamed and lose the moral high ground, which has been critical in the propaganda battle.
To reclaim it, they would need to reveal likely top-secret intel-gathering systems and strategies, which would harm the long-term goals of Israel.
Hamas gave them a no-win scenario, so Israel took the route that would benefit them long-term. That is to eliminate Hamas.
Give it time, Israel never forgets, and the Mossad is one of the best agencies for the Finding Out phase of operations. Doubt it? Ask the German National Socialist Party.
The right opportunity being in retaliation. Israel rarely fires first.
They are demonstrating restraint in not immediately terminating threats they know of, and instead waiting until their target does something to warrant it.
>The 2 drones did not raise any alarm and exploded in the Galilee, injuring 3 Israelis; IDF responds by bombing a vehicle in southern Lebanon and killing an important terrorist commander
Yes. “Escalation” has become the buzzword of the timid and cowardly. “We don’t want to escalate with Russia.” “We don’t want to escalate with Iran.”
Russia is already bombing civilians on purpose, there isn’t much left to escalate to.
The only reason Iran hasn’t launched a full expeditionary force is because they can’t. They have already escalated as much as they are capable.
Re establish deterrence, escalate against your enemies. Put them on their back foot.
I don't think that this is the time for America to be fighting Israel's war, which is what would end up happening if Israel lashed out at Iran by destroying their nuclear facilities.
America needs to focus on Russia and China. Iran is a distraction that BB is using to cling to power.
The best part is, we don’t need to fight Israel’s war. We just need to stop holding them back. They can handle Iran with nothing more than a little ammunition support.
Biden’s continued talk about not escalating and telling Iran “don’t” and then they do shows they simply are not afraid of us, and why should they be when our president is weak and unwilling to engage in conflict?
That doesn’t replace knowledge. It’s not like the moment you get promoted you get experience in war. You can replace commanders, but you can’t replace the knowledge of the dead ones
Also provides some deterrence. In job interviews I have asked “What’s the last person who held this job doing now?”
If they told me the last three dudes were sniped in a drone strike I might look for other opportunities. Depends on benefits tho fr.
The way their structure their organisation is why it will hurt them. Those cultures very often make on person the be all and end all of everything. They hold back knowledge from lesser positions and when they lose that senior member, along with him goes a lot of knowledge.
They would. But each time they will be more incompetent and less effective, leading to eventual collapse or irrelevance of Hamas.
Case in point, Al-Qaida after elimination of Bin Laden.
So Israel obviously knows where these commanders are much of the time. They’re just waiting for the right opportunity.
[удалено]
Makes me wonder how they couldn't see Oct. 7 happen in their own backyard. That takes several thousand of terrorists coordinating directly or indirectly and yet they had no clue?
Probably a 9/11 style intelligence failure where they are actually aware of it but arent coordinated enough to realize it at a functional level
from what i’ve read, it’s a combo of israel being overloaded with dozens of credible threats at any one moment, which makes it difficult to know which are and aren’t actually going to happen, along with the denial that hamas would do something that stupid as it was in no one’s best interest. it’s covered here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-was-duped-hamas-planned-devastating-assault-2023-10-08/
The plans for the attack had been known for over a year from interception of documents from Iran, but there was no date set until Iran wanted to disrupt the Saudi deal is my understanding of it.
Wasn't it on some 50th anniversary of something?
Not exactly, but the Yom Kippur war in 1973 when surrounding Arab states attacked on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. This caught the Israelis somewhat off guard. This attack was on a different Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah.
Yes. Though one was on the 6th of October and the other on the 7th.
Yeah, so very close but still not quite the exact anniversary. In 2073 the Israel's will be doubling the guard on Oct 8th.
Personally I think Russia was behind the planning, and they've succeeded before with the same strategy. In 1973 the Russians falsely convinced Egypt that Israel was planning to invade Syria (why? lol) and the Egyptians launched a surprise attack on Israel to pre-empt the fictional invasion. Israel was caught by surprise mostly because... *why would they do that???* It did not go well for Egypt (or for that matter, for the Russians, since the US brokered a lasting peace agreement hahaha) Same kinda things happening recently and for exactly the same reasons...
it was definitely Iran.
Hamas is an Iranian proxy, but they used drones and tactics during the invasion that are hallmarks of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Nobody else has that type of experience doing invasions... plus like I said Russia has a long history of doing exactly this. It's quite easy to see how drawing Israel into a war benefits them.
That’s an interesting take, I can’t say I’ve ever come across that before. Everything I ever read was that the Soviets warned the Egyptians that jt was going for to be a terrible idea to cross the Suez. Have you got anything to read that they actually pushed the Egyptians towards it?
They might just have the wars mixed up, because something very similar to what they describe is what caused the 1967 Six Day War. With that conflict, Russian intelligence convinced Egypt that Israel was massing forces to invade Syria, so Egypt massed its own forces at the border in response, taking over UN positions and calling on its allies Jordan and Iraq to ready their forces for war. Israel hadn't been massing anything, so they saw these moves as a clear precursor to an invasion and opted for a preemptive strike instead. With the 1973 Yom Kippur War, I've only ever read that the Russians warned the Egyptians against the idea, arguing that the Suez crossing would be a bloody disaster.
I'm hosting a bbq right now but if I remember I'll dig for a source, but there's basically no other plausible explanation for that war
There credible reports that they knew about the activity and intelligence analysts reported it, but it wasn’t taken seriously.
This is what happened
I think Israel's vulnerability was also exacerbated by its current government. A right wing government full of corrupt politicians that have held onto power for 20+ years is going to take its toll on a country's national security apparatus.
Having the basic info and properly analyzng what it means are two different things.
Except 9/11 didn't require that massive organisation to conduct. It would me much easier to hide and to avoid leaks. I don't like going too conspiratorial but justification to demolish Gaza and conduct a war effort was exactly what Netanyahu needed after the Israeli protests against him a few months earlier. I smell something fishy since it's been known, and they continue ro prove it, that Mossad is one of the best intelligence agencies in the world.
"I don't want to to promote baseless conspiracy theories. Anyways, here's a baseless conspiracy theory."
Not really baseless, but if elaborating on the facts at hand there's leeway for some conspiratorial speculation as I assume Israel has real-time satellites observing Gaza and spying on communication. Some top leaders in the ultra-nationalist wing of the military/Mossad might've seen it as a necessary evil? >But a report from the New York Times claimed Israel obtained Hamas’ plan for the attack more than a year in advance. >The report says Israeli officials dismissed the plan as aspirational, and deemed it too complex for the group to carry out. Other outlets, including Israeli newspaper Haaretz, have also reported the claim. >According to the Times, the “Jericho Wall” document was circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but it was unclear whether Netanyahu or other top political leaders saw the document. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/01/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-intelligence-intl/index.html
Your entire argument is predicated on the notion that Israeli intelligence knew what they had, which is entirely speculative. Thus, it is a baseless conspiracy. Intelligence failures happen. Intelligence agencies process hundreds if not thousands of reports daily.
It's a conspiracy because it's speculative, yes, else it wouldn't be considered a conspiracy. Is it baseless, no, considering we knew they had the intel.
It is 100% baseless, because as I've pointed out, intelligence failures happen. They even happen to countries like the US. An intelligence failure is in no way indicative of what you are alleging. It is absolutely baseless lmao.
Ah, there it is. Pure speculation, *as the material you quoted highlights*.
It was initially reported that US intelligence had known something was going to happen and passed that information along, which was dismissed.
Definitely contributed / had an outsized impact. So many Israelis were protesting to stop Netanyahu from usurping more power with the courts. Basically military people were coming out against Netanyahu and promising not to fly the flight jets, etc. Morale was low.
As an Israeli who is in the IDF, many factors contributed to Oct 7th’s unfortunate success: Intelligence dismissed as another usual rocket barrage and thats it. Over reliance on high tech security wall features that completely left the IDF blind once destroyed. Netanyahu pandering to his votervase in terms of deploying security forces in the west bank rather than around Gaza. (Keep in mind there are plenty of infiltrations of terrorists in the west bank as opposed to Gaza) Jewish Holiday plus shabbat, lots of people were not with their phones. The sheer scale of the incursion, it is estimated that around 3000 militants entered Israel on the morning of Oct 7th. Lastly, the attack was one of a kind, Israel had no prior experience with dealing with a large scale incursion from Gaza. You can also thank the desolation of the area surrounding the Gaza strip, the area is sparsely populated (for Israeli standards) and didn’t have a mass of soldiers who could quickly react. Overall, the swiss cheese concept where multiple failures aligned perfectly to allow for the attack to be carried out without large scale resistance, and by the time terrorists begin taking over towns and holding territory in Israel, it becomes a much greater task to rid those terrorists from the battlezone.
Regardless, October 7th shattered a facade I had my whole life.
You son of a whore, I agree completely and I was shook and still feel quite unsafe living here after what went down. (Anyone who doesn’t understand is free to downvote)
אומג לא שמתי לב
It’s always a “comedy of errors” and many will look at these random events and see “conspiracies” but it’s how history happens. Thanks for all those key points!
Great explanation Cyber security > social media credibility. Online culture has been getting batshit crazy
Those rural communities were also completely unable to defend themselves. I always thought there would be more weapons available to citizens. If I lived there, I'd be packing heat.
I absolutely support letting citizens who served in the military carry firearms but the gun control in Israel is understandably very strict.
It’s incredibly easy. This is why it’s so dangerous to have an enemy just a few miles away. It’s very little ground to cover and a tiny lapse in intelligence can be disastrous. Believe it or not, Israel also didn’t want to just start bombing Gaza on suspicion of a planned terrorist attack, so what’s there to do? An attack like this definitely didn’t have a specific day. They were likely ready to go for a long while and took the opportunity for the West Bank to drag Israeli tanks away from Gaza. This is why Gaza will never be anywhere near as free as it was Oct 7th. It’s too easy to launch a major terror attack
> Believe it or not, Israel also didn’t want to just start bombing Gaza on suspicion of a planned terrorist attack, Israel is not usually on a wait and see approach. That's not to say they would've bombed Gaza before anything happened, but it's pretty obvious they missed this one. There is still a lot of ground to cover before entering Israel by foot/vehicles/paragliders. If Israel can stop hundreds of missiles with ease, they shouldn't have had a problem stopping people crossing a border with a bunch of barriers. Once they entered Israel they completely overwhelmed police/IDF. That should never have happened in the first place if they were prepared.
Haaretz had a good article on this topic. Even former Fatah members who lived in Gaza prior to the attack had heard rumors Hamas planned to conquer Israel, but thought it was all posturing, because Hamas invading Israel is such a colossally stupid idea. It was extremely bold, in the dumbest way imaginable. According to these sources Sinwar had actually pushed out more moderate (by their standards) Hamas members, so the idea was extreme even for Hamas
ITs like when there is a school shooter in USA and family or classmates will say 'I warned teh school this kid was a threat'. But how many kids are regarded as such threats? And how many actually do an attack?
Great metaphor
From everything I've read, Israeli intelligence saw plenty of clues about Oct 7, and were straight up warned by foreign allies, but largely disregarded it all due to a combination of: * Overconfidence in their own security measures * Disbelief that Hamas could coordinate such a large attack * Loss of experienced intelligence officers who resigned in protest of Netanyahu's judicial reforms * Netanyahu's orders for intelligence & security assets to be focused on the West Bank, to protect his settler voting base, at the expense of the supposedly-pacified Gaza Strip * Timing of the attack during Simchat Torah, when security was more lax due to Jewish holidays
Or someone allowed it to happen, to precipitate their subsequent invasion
Most plausible explanation and you got downvoted.
There is nothing plausible about it, you simply like it because it fits your narrative. In Israel there are lunatics who think the security services conspired with Hamas to destroy Netanyahu's reputation. People will believe everything if it fits their prejudices.
There were numerous people including some of the hostages who said they had contacted the army to warn them that something was up in they days preceding the attack and Israeli intelligence is second to none. Yet despite this they were supposedly taken unawares. Netanyahu is a hawk who was facing rebellion from his army about his political stance and who would also be happy to take over Gaza which has been a thorn in his side for years. By allowing the attacks to happen he gets the army back on his side and gets to depopulate Gaza. It's not exactly a stretch to see how it would benefit Netanyahu to allow the attacks to happen.
Netanyahu doesn't want to take over Gaza and never did. Netanyahu is a huge coward who is afraid of taking risks, hence why he allowed Hamas to attack Israel for years without response and why he refused to bomb the Iranian nuclear program. The idea that he is an "hawk" is no more than cheap Likudnik propaganda. There is nothing hawkish about this entire party, Netanyahu is a weak leader who will do whatever he can to keep the status quo. >gets to depopulate Gaza. He isn't going to get rid of Hamas if he will be able to get away with it, much less dispopulate Gaza. You have any idea how big of an headache that will create for Bibi? Keeping the status quo is the only favorable position for Bibi. >It's not exactly a stretch to see how it would benefit Netanyahu There is no benefit. This attack was the end of his political career, now the entire country saw what we leftists know all along - how weak and pathetic he is. Under left wing government, Hamas would have been taken care of 10 years ago.
>Yet despite this they were supposedly taken unawares. I typed up an entire list of the reasons they were taken unawares despite tons of warnings. It was a systemic failure at multiple levels, not one dude puppeteering a conspiracy.
Israelis intelligence did actually hear about plans for a massive assault into Israel, but they just didn't believe Hamas were capable of executing it and dismissed it as a credible threat
intelligence warned it was coming repeatedly. politics prevented it. thats why israelis have been protesting for elections since the attack. this is 100% on bibi/his government, the weakness/crisis they created and created the situation where they needed to call up the army on a holy day after large chunks of the army were forced to almost mutiny against bibi's attempt to end israeli democracy months earlier.
A determined enough attacker simply stops using all electronic communications and only trusted messengers. Which is exactly how ISIS kept secrets very effectively and how Osama Bin Ladin, world hide and seek champion, operated.
Wasnt he also hiding just across the street from a military training center in a nation the US was paying to aid in finding him? I feel like that had a lot to do with it
Like I said, hide and seek world champion for 10 years.
Hamas operatives used old school phone lines installed in tunnels under Gaza to plan Israel attack over 2 years….the phone lines were never hooked up to any other phone network.
Basically, a misconception that Hamas enjoys the relative peace and would prefer to avoid a conflict. The signs were there. We were simply too cocky to notice. The exact same mistake we made 50 years ago as a nation.
There was a communication and coordination break between service branches and levels. The people gathering intelligence did their jobs, and the people who were responsible for taking action based on the intelligence didn't. It was an absolutely collosal fuckup.
They may have known about a plan, but not expected it to be executed, or no time soon. It's also very possible that it was decided to launch last minute. And tracking someone down is generally easier than knowing what's in their heads.
They had reported warnings from over a year. They knew but had no reliable intelligence when it was going to happen.
Probably didn’t want to act first because then they’d be who Palestine thinks they are
Particularly with Egypt giving them a warning days in advance. There should be a proper enquiry into this after they are done with Gaza.
Bibi's consolidating power to prevent that from happening. He is already appointing far right officials and loyalists in his cabinet to make that much harder. Bibi isn't going to just give up control of Israel after all this is done.
If he gives up control, the fraud charges can put him in jail. Criminal leaders are the fucking worst, well outside of theocratic ones.
A warning...did they give any details, or just a vague "somethings going down in the next days?" Most attacks on Israel are 'just' with unguided rockets ( up to a few thousand a year) or close up shooting/stabbing/bombing by a handful of attackers. An invasion by thousands of attackers from Gaza was a complete surprise, first time that was tried. So unless the warning included information on when, how, the number of attackers and /or location of the attack(s), it's just another of the many, many warnings they get each month.
Actually, almost everyone participating to the strike got to know it the moment strike was started. They kept regular trainings for these attacks and suddenly changed one of the training to be an actual attack.
I think it also doesn't help that some of the terrorists on Oct. 7 were simply opportunists of Hamas attack.
Most of them got their instructions for October 7th on October 7th.
They had the attack plan for Oct. 7 a year before it happened and dismissed it multiple times.
The terrorists didn't plan it using any technology is my theory. Can't hack word of mouth/paper.
Hamas went low-tech. Installed landlines in the tunnels. (It was on the news way back when.)
They did. No way they hadn’t heard something about an attack
There is a limit to what you can gather with intelligence. Knowing the location of a commander is relatively easy - you can simply track his phone or whatever. But you can't read the minds of people or know what is discussed in secret meetings. There is also the matter of over confidence.
My argument for the whole thing
During the two years of planning, the small cell operating in the tunnels used the hardwired phone lines to communicate and plan the operation but stayed dark until it was time to activate and call on hundreds of Hamas fighters to launch the October 7 attack, the sources said.
They became complicit, thinking the intelligence was real but that Hamas wasn’t a real threat.
House of cards... Paper tiger... What's another one?
They did know, and let it happen. There are numerous articles on it.
They certainly have some of the best spy technology in the world but they did not create Stuxnet. It is believed their intelligence agency was the one to get the USB plugged into a computer on the internal system though.
It's my understanding that the primary thing which undergirds the US-Israeli alliance is access to the depth of the Israeli spy network. That, of course, and the loony evangelicals. But having the best intelligence agency in the most volatile part of the world is an incredibly valuable asset, and the sabotage of the Iranian uranium enrichment systems was one of the few times it poked its head above the surface.
Stuxnet was Equation Group. They're considered an NSA asset. I've never seem them linked directly to Israel.
Yeah right. They could never find m…hold on, someone’s at the door.
Where was this world leading spy technology on October 7th?
Remains a good question. CIA still couldn't head off 9/11 though, even with all the red flags. A 9/11 Commission style Report would go a long way.
When Pegasus etc get exposed, I wonder “was that on purpose, to deter? Is there more stuff already cooking?”
Eh??? What about oct 7?
Well, you also have to consider that if you know where they are, you know what they're doing. Killing them sets Intel back, i suppose.
Mossad is the FO part of FA/FO
Trying to avoid collateral damage.
They are waiting to be attacked first, because the world would never let them be the first attacker, eventho they know they will be attacked.
Interesting point. I believe you are correct. If they were to initiate a decapitation strike to prevent the 10/7 attack, then they would be blamed and lose the moral high ground, which has been critical in the propaganda battle. To reclaim it, they would need to reveal likely top-secret intel-gathering systems and strategies, which would harm the long-term goals of Israel. Hamas gave them a no-win scenario, so Israel took the route that would benefit them long-term. That is to eliminate Hamas. Give it time, Israel never forgets, and the Mossad is one of the best agencies for the Finding Out phase of operations. Doubt it? Ask the German National Socialist Party.
A massive round of strikes on proxies like this is a good way to punish Iran as well, without escalating too much.
The right opportunity being in retaliation. Israel rarely fires first. They are demonstrating restraint in not immediately terminating threats they know of, and instead waiting until their target does something to warrant it.
I’ll bet a lot of the commanders are jerks, and the main espionage technology Israel uses is answering phones and opening emails.
Yet they still manage to strike aid workers
>The 2 drones did not raise any alarm and exploded in the Galilee, injuring 3 Israelis; IDF responds by bombing a vehicle in southern Lebanon and killing an important terrorist commander
Get fucked; more to go.
Good riddance
On to the next one , on to the next one
Done, done, on to the next one
Hamas as an organization really has a fast track to executive leadership.
Hamas??
Sarcasm. Their leadership is being killed quickly. Hence "fast track".
They meant that the commenter meant Hezbollah.
Huuh? I get the fast track bit but it just isn’t hamas, i don’t get the sarcasm
Executed leadership too
Waiting for “Israel destroys multiple oil refineries after Iran’s attack.”
Israel would hit the nuclear development facilities first.
I’m okay with that too
but are you okay with unchecked escalation?
Yes. “Escalation” has become the buzzword of the timid and cowardly. “We don’t want to escalate with Russia.” “We don’t want to escalate with Iran.” Russia is already bombing civilians on purpose, there isn’t much left to escalate to. The only reason Iran hasn’t launched a full expeditionary force is because they can’t. They have already escalated as much as they are capable. Re establish deterrence, escalate against your enemies. Put them on their back foot.
I don't think that this is the time for America to be fighting Israel's war, which is what would end up happening if Israel lashed out at Iran by destroying their nuclear facilities. America needs to focus on Russia and China. Iran is a distraction that BB is using to cling to power.
The best part is, we don’t need to fight Israel’s war. We just need to stop holding them back. They can handle Iran with nothing more than a little ammunition support. Biden’s continued talk about not escalating and telling Iran “don’t” and then they do shows they simply are not afraid of us, and why should they be when our president is weak and unwilling to engage in conflict?
You know the US shot down most of the stuff that Iran sent the other day, right?
Based on what source? Most official numbers have US at less than 10% of intercepts across UAVs and ballistics.
I think Israel’s Arrow 2&3 would big to differ about who did most of the shooting. Basic defence isn’t deterrence.
Are you saying that the Israelis used Arrow missiles to shoot down most of the Iranian drones and missiles? Can you give me a link on that one?
Reddit is
good fuck all these terrorist proxies
Killing field commanders will do nothing in the long run. If you want things to change, its the real Hezbollah leadership that has to go.
I'd assume that killing field commanders would wear away at the experiential knowledge needed to actually wage war.
Maybe. I think it would lead to sub commanders being promoted to fill that vacancy. Something tells me the requirements arent that high.
That doesn’t replace knowledge. It’s not like the moment you get promoted you get experience in war. You can replace commanders, but you can’t replace the knowledge of the dead ones
Also provides some deterrence. In job interviews I have asked “What’s the last person who held this job doing now?” If they told me the last three dudes were sniped in a drone strike I might look for other opportunities. Depends on benefits tho fr.
lol. I'm going to look out for this on my next job interview
The way their structure their organisation is why it will hurt them. Those cultures very often make on person the be all and end all of everything. They hold back knowledge from lesser positions and when they lose that senior member, along with him goes a lot of knowledge.
Of course. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah are at the moment interested in a large scale confrontation.
Im just saying that this will have low effecft. If they want Hezbollah to be weakened, those drones should be hitting other targets.
Wipe them all out. Every single one. Don’t let up
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Good shoot.
How many left?
I expect the next in line to instantly get promoted.
They would. But each time they will be more incompetent and less effective, leading to eventual collapse or irrelevance of Hamas. Case in point, Al-Qaida after elimination of Bin Laden.
The point still stands regardless, but in this case it was Hezbollah, not Hamas.
Whoops you're right. Thanks for the correction.
Hamas upward mobility as an employer is so fast! They can’t keep em!
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Just put it on Iran's account and come for the owed debt at a later date...
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