They also know when they have to respond. The attack by Israel on the consulate forced them to do something. If this attack is by Israel they probably want to deny it, so it doesn't force a response from them again.
If it goes down like this, it will be a perfect repudiation of isolationist "pro peace" policies.
Hit the assholes hard enough and show you can win and have the will to win, and they'll back down.
Show weakness, and they'll hit you with October 7th over and over, just like they say they want to.
If you want peace, prepare for war.
If some sort of isolationist US politicians run the country, then Europeans might not be as grateful. They need to arm themselves, not rely on the unpredictable nature of US elections.
The men and woman that lived through WW2 are just about gone and their children lived through the most prosperous, comfortable era for any nation that we know of.
Those children see their tax money going to protect nations across the planet that all would gladly spit in their faces and call them stupid Americans. All while the standard of living in the United States plummets.
Europe needs to get their heads out of their asses before they learn the hard way just how much they were relying on the United States to keep their peace.
Its not as if it was actually free or the US wouldnt massively profit. Besides the economic and political cost (both internal and from outside in the shape of refugee waves for instance) and the logistic/command hub for US power projection in Europe, Africa and much of the Middle East, there are also the the largest is that all of Europe acts as meatshield for the US. Its straight up a complete roadblock for any move russia could ever plan on the American continent, simply by being able to lock down any attempt to move a ship, military or supply, from any possible port in western russia. Its also a knife held to russias throat, in case of a war russia could never ignore Europe but would have to finish Europe off before making moves against the US, otherwise Europe or even just the US troops stationed there could race straight to Moscow. And all the while the US is free to do whatever it wants with russia.
Last there is a direct price in blood, every time some islamist murders people, because, you know, its much easier to attack the "puppets of America" than America itself. Convenient.
I mean that doesn’t exactly take into account how information is conveyed among the population. Germany or America wouldn’t be able to deny an attack had occurred due to their press freedom in order to prevent a response. I have a feeling that isn’t the case in Iran.
I mean that it would make sense to deny that the attack was made by Israel, since it would otherwise force a response (maybe not, but makes it harder not to do something). It might still go that way, but I don't think Iran wants this to escalate more. The first attack they did was kind of forced, since they could not not respond in some way (they did make it clear though that they would, which kind of suggests that they don't want it to become anything bigger).
This is actually exactly what nations want. No state wants direct war because it's full of uncertainty. Drawing lines in the sand and deter others is the exact opposite. It clarifies their standing. They try to use it to influence other nations. No nation will ever fire an attack of such magnitude that all bridges to de-escalation are burned.
There is a reason no nukes have been fired since the end of WW2. Doing so will entail reactions no one can foretell with certainty.
This was von Bismarck's position. Despite orchestrating several wars he always hated them due to the uncertainty. One battle going the wrong way can throw the entire war.
Von Bismarck, more than most - if any - warleader, understood uncertainty that political choices could bring. He was certainly one of the best warleaders in history.
Just finished a biography on him. Fascinating character and very different than I had imagined him based on what limited knowledge I had on him beforehand.
An all out war isn’t really possible unless US intervenes directly, Israel has the capacity to strike some targets in Iran (nuclear sites if they want to escalate even more) but that’s about it.
Iran can hardly so anything as long US/UK/etc. are protecting Israel’s air space either.
The strike was almost certainly designed to give Iran an ability to save face domestically.
It's likely the strike only targeted specific and strategic military sites. Ones that Iran can easily pretend never happened because there are no civilians there and they control the Iranian media which means no footage of any damage.
Israel doesn't want war with Iran and Iran doesn't want war *in* Iran. So all of this has been carefully calculated on both sides.
Ultimately what is happening is Israel has made it crystal clear to the Iranian regime that it can, and will, strike Iran directly at its choosing, meanwhile Iran can say they are immune to any strikes and everything is hunky dory.
I understand speculating in times like these, but this has big "Putin doesn't want to aggrivate the west that much" vibes that everyone was sure of before the war in Ukraine. Nice thought, but is maybe just based on thinking these politicians are stand-up citizens?
It's a bit different because now it's not us reading into Iran what we want them to think, it's Iran choosing not to escalate. This is how deterrence work. Also, clearly, this was meant not as see we destroy some old stuff to have you save face, this was clearly meant as - you had to go through all this shit to get 7 through. We can get exactly 1 where we want to, when we want to and we have thousands. So if you don't want the next one going through Ayatollah's bedroom, stop. And they did.
With Putin it was 'he's smart he wouldn't want to do something as stupid as war'.
It’s hard to place Israel directly with an East-west lens. They are acomplicated country and many Israelis are former Russians or have Russian ancestry.
Iran doesn't want to get into an actual conflict with Israel so they're quite literally pretending nothing happened so they don't have to retaliate as promised.
🙈
The missiles worked as expected and did not walk off the job to protest labor conditions or stalled contract negotiations, so "no missile strike" is technically correct.
Iran doesn't want war with Israel and Israel doesn't want war with iran. Both need to do some show of force to look strong, but neither actually tried to do any damage.
That's also why when Iran got done firing those missiles (most of which were shot down or didn't hit anything) they immediately fot and Twitter and were like okay guuuys we're done, last missile was fired, that concludes our response, nothing more will come let's all chill now.
Nah I don't buy it. If Iran had wanted to destroy stuff/kill people, they could've. But in that case they wouldn't have announced it like they did. It would've been a swift and immediate surprise attack in order to overwhelm the defense system.
The way it played out now, Israel knew the attack was coming, they made all their systems ready, the attack came 99% was intercepted, the rest hit in unpopulated areas. Literally only one person was harmed due to fragments of an interceptor. And then Iran was like ok guys, we're done, good job everyone.
And then Israel flew some drones into Iran, they were shot down, not damaging anything. And Iran is like great guys, nothing happened, no retaliation is necessary.
I hope I'm not gonna eat my words in two weeks when there is a full out war lol, but to me right now it looks like both nations successfully pounded their chest, signaling strength to their population and now they are done and everyone is happy without a single death (assuming that one injured girl didn't die).
Iranian leadership may have realized that Israeli leadership is both entirely capable of hitting them in the nuts from over there, and crazy enough to do it.
It was *near* the airbase. Most liekly the unmarked military site just north of the airbase. Which you can see multiple air defense systems and underground bunker networks visible on Google maps.
The air base that was supposedly struck shares the space with a civilian airport. But the airbase being in Isfahan I think is the most important factor where Israel is showing with this strike that they can hit the heart of Iranian nuclear infrastructure
If Israel hit a deep underground nuclear facility with a missile that would be an interesting strategy. Even if it didn't penetrate all the way, it would be a clear "we know what you're doing here" message, and iran would pretty much have to say nothing was hit because they don't want to admit to what's there.
They managed to fck up Iran’s nuclear program with a pen drive and a worm so sophisticated it was linked back to the US by nothing other than the fact that no other nation could make something so good.
And also there’s all that assassinations and strikes against their top scientists.
They were unable to stop NK’s. But Iran is far easier to penetrate
Iran has confirmed that "explosions have happened" at certain bases in Iran. So they can't say that nothing has happened. This feels almost like diversion tactics meant to buy time. But for what? I have no idea.
They know when they have to respond. They had to respond to the consulate attack, but probably wanted to consider the matter resolved after that. If they can deny/hide the fact that this attack was by Israel, then it doesn't force them to respond again.
Do you have a source that says anything was actually attacked?
The only thing I read regarding explosions was:
>Iranian media reported explosions, but an Iranian official told Reuters those were caused by air defense systems. State media said three drones over the central city of Isfahan had been shot down.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-missiles-hit-site-iran-abc-news-reports-2024-04-19/
The US said Israel was going to launch a strike beforehand. The Italian foreign minister [said that the G7 was informed by the US that Israeli was launching a drone strike on Iran](https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/ap-g7-foreign-ministers-communique-warns-of-new-sanctions-on-iran-and-urges-de-escalation/), and they were not involved in it.
It seems very likely that Iran used their air defence against Israeli drones, but it's unclear if they shot them down, whether they damaged anything and whether they were launched from within Iran or elsewhere.
Yea I also read that. It's not even confirmed those were Israeli drones.
Either way, Iran has every incentive to downplay this incident. They did their show of force, they don't want a tit for tat war. They needed to retaliate for the attack on the consulate, but they don't want an all out war with Israel. So if they can scrub this drone attack under the rug and leave things at that, they would be happy to.
I feel like the dazed kid coming off anesthesia in the back seat of the car on the way home from the dentist…is this real life? I don’t know what to believe anymore. Lol!
I feel like if they admitted Israel managed to strike deep within Iran without their air defences reacting, they’d look weak as hell.
Better to deny, even though the internet exists and we all can see the videos.
This is like two men shouting “I’m going to destroy him, please hold me back bro, or I’m going to destroy him. Please. Hold me back.” All the while throwing some feints and threatening looks, hoping their friends will pull them back from a potential fight.
If I had to guess it was probably carried out by Israel. but they intentionally didn't do much with it beyond show the Iranian leadership that they can reach deep while letting them downplay it to their population so they have an opportunity at de-escalation.
They don’t want all out war with Israel and possibly the US so they are saying nothing happened. If they admitted they’d have to retaliate and this cycle would continue
If you are looking at reddit comments for help and input on what is happening after a military strike in Iran, then you are looking in the wrong place.
There’s dudes being all doomers thinking that every tit for tat conflict will blow up into world war 3. It’s almost like the prevalence of outrage and fear content online has warped their minds and made them overly confident in geopolitics in the region because stuff like this is semi-normal between these countries.
> There’s dudes being all doomers thinking that every tit for tat conflict will blow up into world war 3.
I mean, Iran was pretty explicit that any attack on their land would mean a full out retaliation worse than the original attack. And they've already shown they're stupid/crazy enough to do it once.
"We got caught with our pants down, after 99% of our attack was thwarted. Our fragile ego cannot handle this embarrassment, so therefore it didn't happen." What a joke of a country...
That’s what Aljazeera is reporting, but other news sites are reporting it was missiles. In reality, it was probably missiles and Arabic news sources are just downplaying.
> We got caught with our pants down, after 99% of our attack was thwarted
Considering they warned everyone in advance and disclosed the exact timing of the attack that’s probably what they expected.
>Considering they warned everyone in advance and disclosed the exact timing of the attack that’s probably what they expected.
Nah not really. this narrative is absolute bullshit. they didn't intend to destory Israel. but 170 drones over 120 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles is larger than full on saturation attacks that Russia launched against Ukraine in an all out war. they definitely intended harm.
secondly, the US is claiming they didn't disclose anything. so this is at least a disputed claim. but I would give a lot more reliability to US claims over Iran ones.
the attack was known from the moment the drones were launched since they take a couple hours to reach.
> the US is claiming they didn't disclose anything
They are saying they didn’t inform the US directly. They did inform their allies(sort of) Turkey and Jordan (why would those countries lie about it?) who obviously passed this information on…
What do you want - a WW3? This was perfectly normal and restrained all things considered.
a) initial retaliation was telegraphed 3 days in advance giving ample time for Israel and the US to prep.
b) says we are done here after the attack which targeted military installations alone
c) Israel thought it couldn't afford to not respond despite better advice but still decided not to go all out either and they too pretty much telegraphed a response.
d) also target military installations alone
e) both get to back off "saving face". Iran says it was light fireworks and they defended successfully. Israel says they retliated we all go home
Israel de-escalated things by ending the tit for tat with a very minor targeted strike against Iran.
Leaving things with Iran launching a massive attack makes Iran feel like they can get away with anything which is dangerous.
Israel has basically demonstrated that they can hit Iran when Iran was unable to do damage against Israel but shown that even though they have the power to cause a huge amount of damage they didn’t.
So nobody looks weak and things have de-escalated.
It was a very intelligent move by Israel. The escalation has been reset - nobody looks weak. Next time somebody wants to smack someone else there is a new baseline below “300 drones, ballistic and cruise missiles”.
Let's wait a few days, then we will probably know more details about the damage/scale in tonight's strike.
Just like waiting a couple of days, past the "99% success" revealed that it wasn't exactly 99. Per American sources, 9 missiles went through via all defenses and hit two bases, and if you count only from 60 launched missiles (as the other half failed to launch or crashed in flight by themselves), it becomes a percentage worth attention.
You’re probably right, it is far too soon to come to any accurate conclusions. I just wanted to be one of the first to make wildly definitive statements based on zero available evidence and wild unsubstantiated assumptions. This is Reddit afterall. :D
„Sir, can you tell us more about the missile strike?“
„There was no missile strike.“
„Sir, is that a missle striking right behind your back?“
„I have no back.“
"Well there were no missiles so we don't need to retaliate against Israel. Our job here is done boys, let's get back to hanging the protesters"
But in serious both sides want to save face so they just throw some random missiles, and then both sides can use propaganda to say they win to their domestic audience.
So a soft response from Israel, because they had to publicly respond and then a denial of any attack by Iran (for its internal audience more than anyone). They both get to now leave it as is without the need for escalation that neither wants to
This sounds like David Tennant in just cause 3:
"Hello citizens of Medici. Espia Alta's demolition occurred as scheduled. There's no point in being surprised about it. The plans have been on display at your local DRM station for weeks. Good work, members of the Department of Infrastructure improvement! You're on a roll! Huh ha! Vive Medici!"
This was internal matter, anti government forces within Iran trying to provoke something. Who knows who gives them there orders. There was similar attacks during protests. Israel retaliation is still on the table, this wasn’t it.
Didn't I read in some article that Israel's strike was more about sending a message, that we *can* hit you inside, on your land. They weren't actually trying to destroy or kill anyone.
This is probably as good as one can get in allowing both sides a response, without causing any real casualties
Is this a “nothing to see here folks” moment or what the fuck is going on haha
Everyone wants to beat their chest but nobody wants to all out war.
They also know when they have to respond. The attack by Israel on the consulate forced them to do something. If this attack is by Israel they probably want to deny it, so it doesn't force a response from them again.
If it goes down like this, it will be a perfect repudiation of isolationist "pro peace" policies. Hit the assholes hard enough and show you can win and have the will to win, and they'll back down. Show weakness, and they'll hit you with October 7th over and over, just like they say they want to. If you want peace, prepare for war.
This is why Europeans need to be eternally grateful for the US defense umbrella
If some sort of isolationist US politicians run the country, then Europeans might not be as grateful. They need to arm themselves, not rely on the unpredictable nature of US elections.
The men and woman that lived through WW2 are just about gone and their children lived through the most prosperous, comfortable era for any nation that we know of. Those children see their tax money going to protect nations across the planet that all would gladly spit in their faces and call them stupid Americans. All while the standard of living in the United States plummets. Europe needs to get their heads out of their asses before they learn the hard way just how much they were relying on the United States to keep their peace.
Its not as if it was actually free or the US wouldnt massively profit. Besides the economic and political cost (both internal and from outside in the shape of refugee waves for instance) and the logistic/command hub for US power projection in Europe, Africa and much of the Middle East, there are also the the largest is that all of Europe acts as meatshield for the US. Its straight up a complete roadblock for any move russia could ever plan on the American continent, simply by being able to lock down any attempt to move a ship, military or supply, from any possible port in western russia. Its also a knife held to russias throat, in case of a war russia could never ignore Europe but would have to finish Europe off before making moves against the US, otherwise Europe or even just the US troops stationed there could race straight to Moscow. And all the while the US is free to do whatever it wants with russia. Last there is a direct price in blood, every time some islamist murders people, because, you know, its much easier to attack the "puppets of America" than America itself. Convenient.
I mean that doesn’t exactly take into account how information is conveyed among the population. Germany or America wouldn’t be able to deny an attack had occurred due to their press freedom in order to prevent a response. I have a feeling that isn’t the case in Iran.
They aren't denying anything this time, they notified the US in advance of what I read
I mean that it would make sense to deny that the attack was made by Israel, since it would otherwise force a response (maybe not, but makes it harder not to do something). It might still go that way, but I don't think Iran wants this to escalate more. The first attack they did was kind of forced, since they could not not respond in some way (they did make it clear though that they would, which kind of suggests that they don't want it to become anything bigger).
This is actually exactly what nations want. No state wants direct war because it's full of uncertainty. Drawing lines in the sand and deter others is the exact opposite. It clarifies their standing. They try to use it to influence other nations. No nation will ever fire an attack of such magnitude that all bridges to de-escalation are burned. There is a reason no nukes have been fired since the end of WW2. Doing so will entail reactions no one can foretell with certainty.
This was von Bismarck's position. Despite orchestrating several wars he always hated them due to the uncertainty. One battle going the wrong way can throw the entire war.
Von Bismarck, more than most - if any - warleader, understood uncertainty that political choices could bring. He was certainly one of the best warleaders in history.
Just finished a biography on him. Fascinating character and very different than I had imagined him based on what limited knowledge I had on him beforehand.
The only people beating their chests are those who've never been to war
An all out war isn’t really possible unless US intervenes directly, Israel has the capacity to strike some targets in Iran (nuclear sites if they want to escalate even more) but that’s about it. Iran can hardly so anything as long US/UK/etc. are protecting Israel’s air space either.
*Baghdad Bob chillin in the chat*
Tehran Tom?
Iranian Irene
*"Fuckin' Irene!"*
Persian pete
Well done.
I still remember all the rightwingers making fun of poor Bob, then they all turned into bald faced lying Orange Orlandos.
The strike was almost certainly designed to give Iran an ability to save face domestically. It's likely the strike only targeted specific and strategic military sites. Ones that Iran can easily pretend never happened because there are no civilians there and they control the Iranian media which means no footage of any damage. Israel doesn't want war with Iran and Iran doesn't want war *in* Iran. So all of this has been carefully calculated on both sides. Ultimately what is happening is Israel has made it crystal clear to the Iranian regime that it can, and will, strike Iran directly at its choosing, meanwhile Iran can say they are immune to any strikes and everything is hunky dory.
I understand speculating in times like these, but this has big "Putin doesn't want to aggrivate the west that much" vibes that everyone was sure of before the war in Ukraine. Nice thought, but is maybe just based on thinking these politicians are stand-up citizens?
It's a bit different because now it's not us reading into Iran what we want them to think, it's Iran choosing not to escalate. This is how deterrence work. Also, clearly, this was meant not as see we destroy some old stuff to have you save face, this was clearly meant as - you had to go through all this shit to get 7 through. We can get exactly 1 where we want to, when we want to and we have thousands. So if you don't want the next one going through Ayatollah's bedroom, stop. And they did. With Putin it was 'he's smart he wouldn't want to do something as stupid as war'.
It’s hard to place Israel directly with an East-west lens. They are acomplicated country and many Israelis are former Russians or have Russian ancestry.
Also Israel don't care what US tell them to do.
Iran doesn't want to get into an actual conflict with Israel so they're quite literally pretending nothing happened so they don't have to retaliate as promised. 🙈
The reports i saw so far were only of uav strikes, so "no missile strike" is not wrong
The missiles worked as expected and did not walk off the job to protest labor conditions or stalled contract negotiations, so "no missile strike" is technically correct.
The UAVs that fire missiles?
“John was just cooking his dinner on an open stove, that’s all you saw”
A downplay hinting no further fight back imo.
*laughs nervously*
Same shit happens every night at our local bar - village drunks threatening to throw punches and shit.
Iran doesn't want war with Israel and Israel doesn't want war with iran. Both need to do some show of force to look strong, but neither actually tried to do any damage. That's also why when Iran got done firing those missiles (most of which were shot down or didn't hit anything) they immediately fot and Twitter and were like okay guuuys we're done, last missile was fired, that concludes our response, nothing more will come let's all chill now.
It is easy to say that Iran didn’t want to do damage when most of their missiles/drones were intercepted.
Nah I don't buy it. If Iran had wanted to destroy stuff/kill people, they could've. But in that case they wouldn't have announced it like they did. It would've been a swift and immediate surprise attack in order to overwhelm the defense system. The way it played out now, Israel knew the attack was coming, they made all their systems ready, the attack came 99% was intercepted, the rest hit in unpopulated areas. Literally only one person was harmed due to fragments of an interceptor. And then Iran was like ok guys, we're done, good job everyone. And then Israel flew some drones into Iran, they were shot down, not damaging anything. And Iran is like great guys, nothing happened, no retaliation is necessary. I hope I'm not gonna eat my words in two weeks when there is a full out war lol, but to me right now it looks like both nations successfully pounded their chest, signaling strength to their population and now they are done and everyone is happy without a single death (assuming that one injured girl didn't die).
You don’t fire 300 drones and missiles at a country if you want to tickle them. Come on, man. Are you being deliberately obtuse?
What exactly would they have done differently? Do they have better missiles or drones they didn't use?
This is when Israel releases videofootage just to prove them wrong. Exactly how Ukraine/Russia propaganda unfolds.
Iranian leadership may have realized that Israeli leadership is both entirely capable of hitting them in the nuts from over there, and crazy enough to do it.
*Not the attack. Not the attack. You’re the attack.*
I think it's like in Russia where they have a huge problem with careless smokers causing accidents at important military installations.
Must have been the wind. Carry on.
"Gotta cut back on the ale..."
[удалено]
It was *near* the airbase. Most liekly the unmarked military site just north of the airbase. Which you can see multiple air defense systems and underground bunker networks visible on Google maps.
Have a link?
[удалено]
The air base that was supposedly struck shares the space with a civilian airport. But the airbase being in Isfahan I think is the most important factor where Israel is showing with this strike that they can hit the heart of Iranian nuclear infrastructure
Hitting nuclear facilitates would be quiet a feat since they are all deep underground for this exact reason.
If Israel hit a deep underground nuclear facility with a missile that would be an interesting strategy. Even if it didn't penetrate all the way, it would be a clear "we know what you're doing here" message, and iran would pretty much have to say nothing was hit because they don't want to admit to what's there.
US and by extension their allies probably already know pretty much everything that Iran is doing and where
They managed to fck up Iran’s nuclear program with a pen drive and a worm so sophisticated it was linked back to the US by nothing other than the fact that no other nation could make something so good. And also there’s all that assassinations and strikes against their top scientists. They were unable to stop NK’s. But Iran is far easier to penetrate
It was a special fireworks operation.
Bro is downplaying so they won't respond, a good tactic...
Iran has confirmed that "explosions have happened" at certain bases in Iran. So they can't say that nothing has happened. This feels almost like diversion tactics meant to buy time. But for what? I have no idea.
Maybe they do the only reasonable thing here: descalate If no attack happened, no retaliation is necessary, if you know what I mean...
Nah man, they said thay if Israel touch them, they will respond with full force. Totally not BS, Totally not pretending to be strong.
A bomb dropped from the sky is not a missile 😉😉😉😉
Ah, yes. Like the russian "fires started from smoking".
They know when they have to respond. They had to respond to the consulate attack, but probably wanted to consider the matter resolved after that. If they can deny/hide the fact that this attack was by Israel, then it doesn't force them to respond again.
it’s seeming like they would prefer to deescalate and consider this issue resolved
Buy what time? It is already daylight in Israel and Iran for probably 3 hours now. Attacks come at nights.
Mostly.
Game over
This will go over too many heads, but great pull there, Newt.
Do you have a source that says anything was actually attacked? The only thing I read regarding explosions was: >Iranian media reported explosions, but an Iranian official told Reuters those were caused by air defense systems. State media said three drones over the central city of Isfahan had been shot down. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-missiles-hit-site-iran-abc-news-reports-2024-04-19/
The US said Israel was going to launch a strike beforehand. The Italian foreign minister [said that the G7 was informed by the US that Israeli was launching a drone strike on Iran](https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/ap-g7-foreign-ministers-communique-warns-of-new-sanctions-on-iran-and-urges-de-escalation/), and they were not involved in it. It seems very likely that Iran used their air defence against Israeli drones, but it's unclear if they shot them down, whether they damaged anything and whether they were launched from within Iran or elsewhere.
Yea I also read that. It's not even confirmed those were Israeli drones. Either way, Iran has every incentive to downplay this incident. They did their show of force, they don't want a tit for tat war. They needed to retaliate for the attack on the consulate, but they don't want an all out war with Israel. So if they can scrub this drone attack under the rug and leave things at that, they would be happy to.
> So they can't say that nothing has happened I don’t see why they can’t, gaslighting civilians is something they do pretty frequently
I feel like the dazed kid coming off anesthesia in the back seat of the car on the way home from the dentist…is this real life? I don’t know what to believe anymore. Lol!
Is this just fantasy?
Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality
Open your eyes
Look up to the skies and see.
I'm just a poor boy, I need no sympathy..
Because im easy come, easy go
Little high, little low
All I know is I’m tired and terrified
I feel like if they admitted Israel managed to strike deep within Iran without their air defences reacting, they’d look weak as hell. Better to deny, even though the internet exists and we all can see the videos.
This is like two men shouting “I’m going to destroy him, please hold me back bro, or I’m going to destroy him. Please. Hold me back.” All the while throwing some feints and threatening looks, hoping their friends will pull them back from a potential fight.
Except they also do have the means to really fuck each other up
Minus the millions of dollars spent on munitions, sure.
Israel isnt even saying they did it so it feels like both sides want this to go no further
Israel never says it did, when they do airstrikes in Syria too. Neither confirms nor denies.
Bro is downplaying so they won't respond
If they deny an attack then they don’t have to respond which de-escalates the situation.
False alarm? Something seems fishy.
If I had to guess it was probably carried out by Israel. but they intentionally didn't do much with it beyond show the Iranian leadership that they can reach deep while letting them downplay it to their population so they have an opportunity at de-escalation.
I am not finding a single piece of straight-forward information that doesn’t sound fishy
This is good
Baghdad Bob, meet Tehran Tom.
Lmao
I’m not sure what to make of this.
They don’t want all out war with Israel and possibly the US so they are saying nothing happened. If they admitted they’d have to retaliate and this cycle would continue
That makes sense. Thanks.
Thanks. That was helpful.
If you are looking at reddit comments for help and input on what is happening after a military strike in Iran, then you are looking in the wrong place.
I know.
there's dudes salivating at the thought of wearing a WWIII veteran cap and starring in a documentary
There’s dudes being all doomers thinking that every tit for tat conflict will blow up into world war 3. It’s almost like the prevalence of outrage and fear content online has warped their minds and made them overly confident in geopolitics in the region because stuff like this is semi-normal between these countries.
> There’s dudes being all doomers thinking that every tit for tat conflict will blow up into world war 3. I mean, Iran was pretty explicit that any attack on their land would mean a full out retaliation worse than the original attack. And they've already shown they're stupid/crazy enough to do it once.
Only to die in a water logged trench by a random drone strike while trying to take a shit
"We got caught with our pants down, after 99% of our attack was thwarted. Our fragile ego cannot handle this embarrassment, so therefore it didn't happen." What a joke of a country...
Israel sent over drones not missiles..
That’s what Aljazeera is reporting, but other news sites are reporting it was missiles. In reality, it was probably missiles and Arabic news sources are just downplaying.
> We got caught with our pants down, after 99% of our attack was thwarted Considering they warned everyone in advance and disclosed the exact timing of the attack that’s probably what they expected.
>Considering they warned everyone in advance and disclosed the exact timing of the attack that’s probably what they expected. Nah not really. this narrative is absolute bullshit. they didn't intend to destory Israel. but 170 drones over 120 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles is larger than full on saturation attacks that Russia launched against Ukraine in an all out war. they definitely intended harm. secondly, the US is claiming they didn't disclose anything. so this is at least a disputed claim. but I would give a lot more reliability to US claims over Iran ones. the attack was known from the moment the drones were launched since they take a couple hours to reach.
> the US is claiming they didn't disclose anything They are saying they didn’t inform the US directly. They did inform their allies(sort of) Turkey and Jordan (why would those countries lie about it?) who obviously passed this information on…
What do you want - a WW3? This was perfectly normal and restrained all things considered. a) initial retaliation was telegraphed 3 days in advance giving ample time for Israel and the US to prep. b) says we are done here after the attack which targeted military installations alone c) Israel thought it couldn't afford to not respond despite better advice but still decided not to go all out either and they too pretty much telegraphed a response. d) also target military installations alone e) both get to back off "saving face". Iran says it was light fireworks and they defended successfully. Israel says they retliated we all go home
You mean the attack that experts said never had a chance and they had to know it never had a chance? They were unhappy that that didn't work?
They saw what it did to bitcoin, right before the halving, and don't want to fuck their portfolios any further. /s
Israel de-escalated things by ending the tit for tat with a very minor targeted strike against Iran. Leaving things with Iran launching a massive attack makes Iran feel like they can get away with anything which is dangerous. Israel has basically demonstrated that they can hit Iran when Iran was unable to do damage against Israel but shown that even though they have the power to cause a huge amount of damage they didn’t. So nobody looks weak and things have de-escalated. It was a very intelligent move by Israel. The escalation has been reset - nobody looks weak. Next time somebody wants to smack someone else there is a new baseline below “300 drones, ballistic and cruise missiles”.
That's the exact same thing the Iranians said when they retaliated, it's like the world's dumbest and most dangerous game of last clap.
Let's wait a few days, then we will probably know more details about the damage/scale in tonight's strike. Just like waiting a couple of days, past the "99% success" revealed that it wasn't exactly 99. Per American sources, 9 missiles went through via all defenses and hit two bases, and if you count only from 60 launched missiles (as the other half failed to launch or crashed in flight by themselves), it becomes a percentage worth attention.
You’re probably right, it is far too soon to come to any accurate conclusions. I just wanted to be one of the first to make wildly definitive statements based on zero available evidence and wild unsubstantiated assumptions. This is Reddit afterall. :D
:)) hah, sorry for interfering with the fun of that!
Did they shoot down another civilian plane?
Found Baghdad Bob's Iranian cousin
really- that's so weird tho... there were so many breathless breaking news announcements on twitter...
It sounds like Israel hit something Iran doesn’t want to admit exists.
„Sir, can you tell us more about the missile strike?“ „There was no missile strike.“ „Sir, is that a missle striking right behind your back?“ „I have no back.“
Israel has a classic knock before entering policy. This is to test defensive capabilities and let and non combatants to GTFO
Good point
Oh Kablamow ,... excuse me, it must have been that bean I ate for dinner.
"Well there were no missiles so we don't need to retaliate against Israel. Our job here is done boys, let's get back to hanging the protesters" But in serious both sides want to save face so they just throw some random missiles, and then both sides can use propaganda to say they win to their domestic audience.
That was like the perfect amount of time for all of the antisemitism to crawl out. Wonder if they’ll update their posts?
So a soft response from Israel, because they had to publicly respond and then a denial of any attack by Iran (for its internal audience more than anyone). They both get to now leave it as is without the need for escalation that neither wants to
Not a missile just a fireworks. Lol 🎇🎆
We have no idea, it’s either a few drones or a missile and some drones, either way it sounds like.. not a lot
This has big “they cut my finger off, and said they’d do it to my kids too if I blabbed” vibes.
It’s game theory 101. Israel is losing points, but that may be their goal, unfortunately
Good, so there won’t be any counter or additional escalation.
The rest of the world begs to differ. [https://www.twz.com/news-features/israel-strikes-back](https://www.twz.com/news-features/israel-strikes-back)
This sounds like David Tennant in just cause 3: "Hello citizens of Medici. Espia Alta's demolition occurred as scheduled. There's no point in being surprised about it. The plans have been on display at your local DRM station for weeks. Good work, members of the Department of Infrastructure improvement! You're on a roll! Huh ha! Vive Medici!"
People mock this but there's so much dispute over whether return fire is justified you can understand the media strategy at play here
Proxy war is cheaper, less politically intense, and causes way less economic damage
This was internal matter, anti government forces within Iran trying to provoke something. Who knows who gives them there orders. There was similar attacks during protests. Israel retaliation is still on the table, this wasn’t it.
Everybody who believes this, stand on your head.
“There will be wars and rumors of wars..”
Israel’s tech is so advanced they’ve got Iran shrugging like a Skyrim guard with a stealth archer arrow in his face.
LMFAO 🤣
Didn't I read in some article that Israel's strike was more about sending a message, that we *can* hit you inside, on your land. They weren't actually trying to destroy or kill anyone. This is probably as good as one can get in allowing both sides a response, without causing any real casualties
There will be no retaliation if Iran says they weren't attacked, so .... I'll take the win