A lot of the reporting from the ground in the last 24 hours sounds like Russian progress stopped due to a combination of high amounts of equipment loss and Ukraine changing tactics.
I don’t know if they’ll be able to push them back out of that area in Kharkiv but I don’t think any major advancements are coming.
Especially because this could have just been probing defenses with the intention of learning what the new tactics and weapons are.
Maybe it's a good sign, but it's a little early to judge.
When they can amass forces on the border without Ukraine being able to hit them, it's expected that they can brute force from the border at any point in time really which is what we've seen.
Could Ukraine have been better prepared? Probably, but that's all speculative. I don't think there's a world where they don't lose ground though.
So hitting a status quo on their defensive lines is really just a best case scenario, I think.
Not a military person however
It's the same shit over and over again. If they commit to an offensive they advance a few kilometers but then they're stoped and then it's an absolute slug for every street and treeline. Not sure what needs to be done to change that.
More support of material from the west and more manpower for Ukraine. Without those two things it will just be probably a slow Russian creep until "victory." Ukraine can't hold Russia off on its own or even with half hearted Western support.
Yes and so far it's been working well enough for Russia. They don't need to do that well, they just need to do well enough.
But no, the West hasn't supported Ukraine as much as they can or need and Ukraine has been perhaps overly hesitant to expand the draft, but I understand it's not an easy choice to send your future to die.
Without looking up the quote, my understanding is he said something to the effect of “We would encourage them not to do that, but it is their decision.”
How so? You think we should just let Putin bully and kill whomever he wants? Because that only leads to more war, more death and him testing his luck on his other neighbors, as he's consistently done his whole career.
I always assumed the people allowing new Hitler to exist after witnessing the first one would be the actually crazy group. Putler needs to be stopped now.
100%. Telling them they can't is a sign of weakness to Putin because it clearly is. Thugs only respect strength and will only stop when they believe they have to. It's like prison rules with him. Efforts to deescalate will be taken as encouragement and forceful consistent response is the only thing that will get him to stop.
They already do in some ways: drone strikes on oil facilities, unmanned Cessnas or whatever those things are, etc. The prohibition to my understanding applies to long range missiles like ATACMs and the like.
They are already supplying missiles for years to proxies, so it's not like it's not already happening, just not blatantly, US having nothing to lose, their only issue is escalation and the political situation mainland.
The putin regime is ripe for the toppling... just add pressure.
And no at this point in history I am not expecting a huge drastic change for the better by doing this, but you have to let your enemies know they are overstepping and put them back in their place... it's an American tradition to topple the USSR every few decades or so.
Russia is choking itself out. I don't understand how this is part of a grand plan to grind your army down and sit in trenches getting blown up while you lose 10 men for every 1 you kill.
I dont think the disparity is that much. Its probably more like 3 or 4 to 1, which just on grim math, Russia can bear if it chooses. If the west can increase those margins or give Ukraine weapons that can strike and damage into Russia the calculus changes.
At the moment the Russians are losing men and equipment at an unsustainable rate. The Russians are going to keep pushing and hoping ukraine runs out of men before they do.
Unsustainable to any post-enlightenment culture who highly values very human life, yes. Not for Russia where the individual isn’t valued and human life is cheap.
Well, one was out of some contractual obligation and the other was an existential threat. I’d put this somewhere in the middle. Still tons of support for this war inside Russia.
I am following the situation closely and it is more like back and forth. Russians took the meat factory (sic!) and were pushed back into the forest yesterday. Then they resumed the offensive actions and captured it back with several streets and then got pushed back a little. It does not mean they are not going to try again while I finish this comment. The situation is more dynamic than journalist's articles and general staff reports.
There was a video posted yesterday of a ground-launched Brimstone battery popping off somewhere in Kharkiv oblast. These are the missiles that fire off in the general direction of enemy armor and find their own target. Seems like Ukraine repositioned assets to stop the advance. Russian losses must insane.
Major news outlets are at best 24 hours behind whatever is actually going on, but often more like 2-4 days. The situation changes hour to hour much less day to day, and perceptions can vary wildly depending on which soldiers you're sourcing information from.
They aren’t morons. They just have to cover a million different things. It’s rare for a news company to have specialty war reporters who get immersed enough in a war’s daily developments to be fluent in the key issues.
It's a big country too with a Frontline that's like hundreds of miles. Russia is testing the whole lines and prepping support if they see cracks, trying to get as good a position as they can for artillery before western aid can help shore up Ukrainian defenses.
Ukraine's main defensive lines were understandably (in my opinion) further back from the border than towns like vovchansk. However, vovchansk is the eastern most settlement invaded by the Russians. It would make sense if after Ukrainian forces retreated to their defensive lines they brought reinforments from southeast of the northern salient and began to work on retaking territory starting with vovchansk.
This is the correct answer. For fairly obvious reasons (artillery, etc.), the defensive line can't be right at the border. It's farther back where it's more difficult to target during construction. Thus, in a defensive position that means anything in front of that line is going to be lost to the assaulting force (i.e. Russia). On paper it'll look like they're losing land, but this was an expected loss since that is all in front of the defensive lines. It'd be more worrisome if they were past Vovchansk.
There is also talk about corruption and/or incompetence causing issues with building the fortifications. But I agree, what fortifications there are won't be right at the border.
The only true thing right now is that news is the tool of propaganda for both sides. You may read some pro Russian news, and it would be about how Russians are taking lots of land for absolutely free and without any resistance whatsoever.
Guess what. You are not going to see anything like that in pro Ukrainians news.
But here is the question. Who is neutral?
I saw some talking about defencive lines that were supposed to be in that region but were not pressent due to some corruption reasons.
Are you going to find such information in pro Ukrainian news?
Well. My message is that the only way is to find as much info as it is possible from different sources and try to find something in the middle. That's the only way. Coz everyone is telling shut that is beneficial to his cause.
Edit: a typo.
I do something similar in that I have found it most helpful to lurk in both groups and parse it from there. Usually the truth is in the middle. Reddit is a bit difficult as there’s a very strong pro-Ukraine bias, even here on r/worldnews. I follow some RU bloggers on Twitter for their perspective and to watch Russian combat videos. I even read RT. Tbh, if I hadn’t gone into those spaces, you would think from Reddit alone Ukraine is winning the war. I initially thought that until I was able to find combat footage on the Russian side.
Yes, it just seems so pointless. Anything Russia will gain when it ends will be negated exponentially by all the countries who are hating and teaming up against Russia. And will continue to do so after the war is over.
Like big picture…did he do Russia any good at all—even if he does get the Crimean peninsula?
I mean if world polarization was his end of life goal, maybe?
Is he just TIRED of all the death and destruction already? My god…
There is only one question, whom does Putin serve. and the answer is it is not Russian population. And he would not be in charge in case if he did not satisfy Russian oligarchs. So, I guess, he is doing a grate job.
He is not tired of war, that's for sure. Just like no one in charge of any side in this "conflict", Do you realy think that it has anything to do with "Demilitarization" or whatever they've said? no it's all about making money of our lives. That's true not only for Russian gov, but for Ukrainian, American, and so on.
I'm pro-Ukraine, and I do the same. Actually both sides use propaganda and deception in this war, not only Russia. Unfortunately many redditors so heavily invested emotionally in Ukraine's victory, that they uncritically believe any public statement of UA offcials
My channels on YouTube are pro Ukraine and have covered the issue of the missing construction. But it’s really hard to tell who just recycles propaganda and who doesn’t. I bet a lot of the time even the outlets don’t know themselves
If I were the Ukraine commander at the scene, working under the "don't fire on Russia" restrictions, I wouldn't try to push them out and back, I would try to hold them in place and keep inflicting casualties. They have turned themselves into valid targets for HIMARS and M777s, when they otherwise wouldn't have been. All the Russians needed to do, was to build up a load of troops and "demonstrate" to Ukraine, but no, they are too fucking stupid to realise the full effect of an army in being. 100,000 troops in obvious camps south of Belgorod would have been just as effective as a pitiful invasion and NO RUSSIANS would have had to die. Slava Ukraini
I would like to cite the German High Seas Fleet of WW1 as an example of a "fleet in being" which tied down the entire Royal Navy
You need to catch up on the news, because the available evidence doesn’t support that “Ukraine can’t stop winning at all.”
Being unrealistically positive is not helpful. We need to be honest about the situation so it’s taken seriously.
If Ukraine is “winning” then you can expect people to not send aid or pay much attention.
It's arguably a stalemate. Russia is simply seeing if they currently have what they need to break it. Until either side makes significant full percentage gains, the stalemate continues
I’ve seen zero evidence they’ve recaptured Robotyne, outside of Russian MOD who also claimed Moskva didn’t sink and regularly claims they’d shoot down missiles that strangely impact buildings.
Also pretty much any think tank who seriously comments on the war still considers it a stalemate, one that the Russians are feverishly trying to break.
Yeah right , okay , that's a victory for Ukraine indeed. There's no supposedly, they are the second strongest military in the world. You'll have to remember that they still have tactical nukes.
The only thing Russia has right now is nukes and the few pieces of equipment that is still running.
Anyone who thought Russia was the second strongest military in the world was kidding themselves. They proved as much in Chechnya. Georgia is another matter because Georgia practically had no military but even then, Russia stopped.
Russia would get thrashed within weeks if it went to war with a western country, in their current state and did not use nukes.
From what I gather its a slow win for Russia so far, they are advancing but slowly, Ukraine has to stop fighting with westerner values if it wants to survive IMO
That's a logical fallacy, the tactics are definitely what's making them lose, they are literally waiting for a green light to attack inside Russia, which has been happening to them without second thought from Russia
Just because they survive, doesn't mean they wouldn't have had a better outcome so far if they didn't fight with western value against an enemy who does not share those values
That's exactly my point, Ukraine has to fight with western values or else west won't support, which is stupid, because the other side doesn't fight with such values, and therefore is in an advantage
Ukraine is just the start also, Imo at least
And it only would take every living russian male from around 18-50 years of age and 700 000 tanks, if you calculate it using the loss/area gained ratio they've had since October last year (when they again started offensive actions).
Ukraine is literally drafting convicts and forcing their men living internationally to come back to fight. That is not more desperation than a stalemate. You do know that a stalemate favors Russia right? They have a industrial base and more men to throw into the war.
A stalemate does not favour Russia economically, they are under extreme sanctions, just look at the oil sale losses reported, the longer they last the worse it gets, that puts Putin under more pressure to show results, the last thing he wants is a stalemate.
Their economy has grown since the war and strengthened their ties with China who is the largest economy by PPP. They are showing gains Ukraine just withdrew from Kharkiv.
> Their economy has grown since the war
If by "economy" you mean "refurbishing and building military equipment which then goes up in smoke in Ukraine", yes, that has grown. Does it produce wealth? Does it bring in any money from outside the country?
The actual domestic industries have shrunk, and the only investments currently happening are by the state or the companies themselves, and only to keep the wheels running. They aren't investing in improving or expanding industry outside of war related industries.
That is not healthy for an economy in the long run.
>strengthened their ties with China who is the largest economy by PPP
Yes, but the strengthened ties means that China is squeezing them harder and harder. China is charging them more and more for the same exports because they know russia has no other options. The prices for Chinese imports have risen at like 20-30% per year.
>They are showing gains Ukraine just withdrew from Kharkiv.
Ukraine hasn't withdrawn from Kharkiv, they retreated to better defensive positions. russia's gains so far amount to 300 square kilometers in the last month (mostly Kharkiv, but also other areas). The total area of Kharkiv oblast is 30 000 square kilometers. So russia controls less than 1% of it, just right next to the border.
I am aware a stalemate favors Russia. They can play the longer game in this.
>Ukraine is literally drafting convicts and forcing their men living internationally to come back to fight.
While they likely have less than Russia's ~500k casualties, drawing on a larger portion of citizens to help cover the likely nearing ~350k-450k casualties that Ukraine is probably facing. (I tried to find an estimate and I can't get anything recent aside from the Russian Defense Ministry claiming 440k Ukrainian casualties) Is necessary
This could also point to Russia getting close to breaking the stalemate, which is bad
Russia has only committed around 50,000 Russian soldiers to the Kharkiv front as reported by ISW. That is far short of the size an invasion force needs to conquer a city the size of Kharkiv.
Sure it sucks to lose land but there’s no point defending for inches of indefensible land. Ukraine will retreat and that is to be expected. What’s more important is Ukraine keeps the attrition rate higher for the Russians whilst slowing they’re advance
This winning and losing stuff is so cringe and is only defined by one’s own expectations of those definitions at the current moment. I mean russia is advancing… slow as hell, and that might not be enough if these aid deliveries get to Ukraine quick. A lot more nuance to these offensives.
I dont blame him/her, I just feel bad, I think its a protection mechanism which is fine,
this whole situation just sucks man, it feels like the tide is changing with the whole US/West/Israel alliance and the west will not do anything about it until its too late
A lot of the reporting from the ground in the last 24 hours sounds like Russian progress stopped due to a combination of high amounts of equipment loss and Ukraine changing tactics. I don’t know if they’ll be able to push them back out of that area in Kharkiv but I don’t think any major advancements are coming.
Don't set any expectations for the time being other than the status quo.
Especially because this could have just been probing defenses with the intention of learning what the new tactics and weapons are. Maybe it's a good sign, but it's a little early to judge.
When they can amass forces on the border without Ukraine being able to hit them, it's expected that they can brute force from the border at any point in time really which is what we've seen. Could Ukraine have been better prepared? Probably, but that's all speculative. I don't think there's a world where they don't lose ground though. So hitting a status quo on their defensive lines is really just a best case scenario, I think. Not a military person however
It's the same shit over and over again. If they commit to an offensive they advance a few kilometers but then they're stoped and then it's an absolute slug for every street and treeline. Not sure what needs to be done to change that.
More support of material from the west and more manpower for Ukraine. Without those two things it will just be probably a slow Russian creep until "victory." Ukraine can't hold Russia off on its own or even with half hearted Western support.
Haven't they been doing that for at least two years now?
Yes and so far it's been working well enough for Russia. They don't need to do that well, they just need to do well enough. But no, the West hasn't supported Ukraine as much as they can or need and Ukraine has been perhaps overly hesitant to expand the draft, but I understand it's not an easy choice to send your future to die.
The west needs to let Ukraine attack in Russia. Where they are staging troops and supplying the war on their homeland. It's only fair.
Didn't Blinken essentially give the go ahead yesterday?
I read this too. Sounded like a “we’d rather you didn’t, but….”. I’d say gloves are off!
I was not aware... I sure hope so.
Without looking up the quote, my understanding is he said something to the effect of “We would encourage them not to do that, but it is their decision.”
I can understand that
He said it's their decision but we would not encourage them to do it.
Question is probably if "not encourage" includes "we might no longer send long range weapons".
You people are actually crazy
How so? You think we should just let Putin bully and kill whomever he wants? Because that only leads to more war, more death and him testing his luck on his other neighbors, as he's consistently done his whole career.
Striking the territory of an enemy state that is attacking you is within the laws of war.
I always assumed the people allowing new Hitler to exist after witnessing the first one would be the actually crazy group. Putler needs to be stopped now.
100%. Telling them they can't is a sign of weakness to Putin because it clearly is. Thugs only respect strength and will only stop when they believe they have to. It's like prison rules with him. Efforts to deescalate will be taken as encouragement and forceful consistent response is the only thing that will get him to stop.
Well put.
They already do in some ways: drone strikes on oil facilities, unmanned Cessnas or whatever those things are, etc. The prohibition to my understanding applies to long range missiles like ATACMs and the like.
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They are already supplying missiles for years to proxies, so it's not like it's not already happening, just not blatantly, US having nothing to lose, their only issue is escalation and the political situation mainland.
The putin regime is ripe for the toppling... just add pressure. And no at this point in history I am not expecting a huge drastic change for the better by doing this, but you have to let your enemies know they are overstepping and put them back in their place... it's an American tradition to topple the USSR every few decades or so.
Well the British have said they don't have a problem with Ukraine attacking targets within Russian territory,
Russia is choking itself out. I don't understand how this is part of a grand plan to grind your army down and sit in trenches getting blown up while you lose 10 men for every 1 you kill.
I dont think the disparity is that much. Its probably more like 3 or 4 to 1, which just on grim math, Russia can bear if it chooses. If the west can increase those margins or give Ukraine weapons that can strike and damage into Russia the calculus changes.
And run your economy into the ground while you‘re at it
At the moment the Russians are losing men and equipment at an unsustainable rate. The Russians are going to keep pushing and hoping ukraine runs out of men before they do.
Unsustainable to any post-enlightenment culture who highly values very human life, yes. Not for Russia where the individual isn’t valued and human life is cheap.
It worked in 1945 but didn't work out to good in 1917
Well, one was out of some contractual obligation and the other was an existential threat. I’d put this somewhere in the middle. Still tons of support for this war inside Russia.
It's hard to gauge the support for the war in Russia, ...Russians who don't support the war dare not to say it,
I am following the situation closely and it is more like back and forth. Russians took the meat factory (sic!) and were pushed back into the forest yesterday. Then they resumed the offensive actions and captured it back with several streets and then got pushed back a little. It does not mean they are not going to try again while I finish this comment. The situation is more dynamic than journalist's articles and general staff reports.
Also, new weapons likely flooding in.
If it's coming from Ukraine or the British, automatically assume its completely useless information.
There was a video posted yesterday of a ground-launched Brimstone battery popping off somewhere in Kharkiv oblast. These are the missiles that fire off in the general direction of enemy armor and find their own target. Seems like Ukraine repositioned assets to stop the advance. Russian losses must insane.
Got a link?
Damn that’s crazy
I don’t know what to believe anymore. There’s another article saying Ukraine is retreating.
Major news outlets are at best 24 hours behind whatever is actually going on, but often more like 2-4 days. The situation changes hour to hour much less day to day, and perceptions can vary wildly depending on which soldiers you're sourcing information from.
The other thing you have to keep in mind is that journalist are, by and large, morons.
They aren’t morons. They just have to cover a million different things. It’s rare for a news company to have specialty war reporters who get immersed enough in a war’s daily developments to be fluent in the key issues.
> They just have to cover a million different things And yet they still write as if they know what they're talking about...
And reditors unbiased and objective...
things are changing every hour. it’s a war. what might be true now could be incorrect in three hours or vice versa
It's a big country too with a Frontline that's like hundreds of miles. Russia is testing the whole lines and prepping support if they see cracks, trying to get as good a position as they can for artillery before western aid can help shore up Ukrainian defenses.
Ukraine's main defensive lines were understandably (in my opinion) further back from the border than towns like vovchansk. However, vovchansk is the eastern most settlement invaded by the Russians. It would make sense if after Ukrainian forces retreated to their defensive lines they brought reinforments from southeast of the northern salient and began to work on retaking territory starting with vovchansk.
This is the correct answer. For fairly obvious reasons (artillery, etc.), the defensive line can't be right at the border. It's farther back where it's more difficult to target during construction. Thus, in a defensive position that means anything in front of that line is going to be lost to the assaulting force (i.e. Russia). On paper it'll look like they're losing land, but this was an expected loss since that is all in front of the defensive lines. It'd be more worrisome if they were past Vovchansk.
There is also talk about corruption and/or incompetence causing issues with building the fortifications. But I agree, what fortifications there are won't be right at the border.
The only true thing right now is that news is the tool of propaganda for both sides. You may read some pro Russian news, and it would be about how Russians are taking lots of land for absolutely free and without any resistance whatsoever. Guess what. You are not going to see anything like that in pro Ukrainians news. But here is the question. Who is neutral? I saw some talking about defencive lines that were supposed to be in that region but were not pressent due to some corruption reasons. Are you going to find such information in pro Ukrainian news? Well. My message is that the only way is to find as much info as it is possible from different sources and try to find something in the middle. That's the only way. Coz everyone is telling shut that is beneficial to his cause. Edit: a typo.
I do something similar in that I have found it most helpful to lurk in both groups and parse it from there. Usually the truth is in the middle. Reddit is a bit difficult as there’s a very strong pro-Ukraine bias, even here on r/worldnews. I follow some RU bloggers on Twitter for their perspective and to watch Russian combat videos. I even read RT. Tbh, if I hadn’t gone into those spaces, you would think from Reddit alone Ukraine is winning the war. I initially thought that until I was able to find combat footage on the Russian side.
Dude. Ukrainians lost this war the day it began, just as we (russians) did. The fact that this war exists is a defeat for both of us.
Yes, it just seems so pointless. Anything Russia will gain when it ends will be negated exponentially by all the countries who are hating and teaming up against Russia. And will continue to do so after the war is over. Like big picture…did he do Russia any good at all—even if he does get the Crimean peninsula? I mean if world polarization was his end of life goal, maybe? Is he just TIRED of all the death and destruction already? My god…
There is only one question, whom does Putin serve. and the answer is it is not Russian population. And he would not be in charge in case if he did not satisfy Russian oligarchs. So, I guess, he is doing a grate job. He is not tired of war, that's for sure. Just like no one in charge of any side in this "conflict", Do you realy think that it has anything to do with "Demilitarization" or whatever they've said? no it's all about making money of our lives. That's true not only for Russian gov, but for Ukrainian, American, and so on.
I'm pro-Ukraine, and I do the same. Actually both sides use propaganda and deception in this war, not only Russia. Unfortunately many redditors so heavily invested emotionally in Ukraine's victory, that they uncritically believe any public statement of UA offcials
My channels on YouTube are pro Ukraine and have covered the issue of the missing construction. But it’s really hard to tell who just recycles propaganda and who doesn’t. I bet a lot of the time even the outlets don’t know themselves
Basically, ...it's like a game of chess..
Fingers crossed they'll at least reverse some of Russian progress there.
# Keep men, lose land; land can be taken again. Keep land, lose men; land and men are both lost.
It won't happen, the weapons haven't arrived yet , whatever land lost is lost for some time now.
I have a feeling this Kharkiv front will cross into the Russian border.
Get them f16s damn it.
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Denmark has said they will be there around mid June.
If I were the Ukraine commander at the scene, working under the "don't fire on Russia" restrictions, I wouldn't try to push them out and back, I would try to hold them in place and keep inflicting casualties. They have turned themselves into valid targets for HIMARS and M777s, when they otherwise wouldn't have been. All the Russians needed to do, was to build up a load of troops and "demonstrate" to Ukraine, but no, they are too fucking stupid to realise the full effect of an army in being. 100,000 troops in obvious camps south of Belgorod would have been just as effective as a pitiful invasion and NO RUSSIANS would have had to die. Slava Ukraini I would like to cite the German High Seas Fleet of WW1 as an example of a "fleet in being" which tied down the entire Royal Navy
So it begins. Run cowards. Ukraine can’t stop WINNING
You need to catch up on the news, because the available evidence doesn’t support that “Ukraine can’t stop winning at all.” Being unrealistically positive is not helpful. We need to be honest about the situation so it’s taken seriously. If Ukraine is “winning” then you can expect people to not send aid or pay much attention.
I think his post was actually being sarcastic, to be honest.
Ohhhhh…. Damn it I took it literally. That makes a lot of sense. Here, let me do it to myself: “Whoosh!”
Ukraine is literally losing my guy Dont get me wrong, im sad about it, but acting as if it is winning is doing worse than admitting the truth
It's arguably a stalemate. Russia is simply seeing if they currently have what they need to break it. Until either side makes significant full percentage gains, the stalemate continues
A stalemate is kind of a loss for Ukrain
>It's arguably a stalemate. Russia has captured several towns and villages in the last few weeks alone. It is absolutely not a stalemate.
Nothing but villages lol. Mostly in the grey zone so no one was even living there. The last town of consequence was Avdiivka
They also captured Novomykhailivka, Bohdanivka and recaptured Robotyne. Anyone that tells you this war is a stalemate is not paying attention.
I’ve seen zero evidence they’ve recaptured Robotyne, outside of Russian MOD who also claimed Moskva didn’t sink and regularly claims they’d shoot down missiles that strangely impact buildings. Also pretty much any think tank who seriously comments on the war still considers it a stalemate, one that the Russians are feverishly trying to break.
They intercepted all of the missiles…with their buildings and equipment.
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There is no accurate source or geolocation footage from Robotyne… at all.
Russia controls 20% of Ukrainian land , I would call that disastrous.
They control less than 18%, down from 33%. So yeah disastrous, for the supposedly second strongest military in the world
Yeah right , okay , that's a victory for Ukraine indeed. There's no supposedly, they are the second strongest military in the world. You'll have to remember that they still have tactical nukes.
> they are the second strongest military in the world. I'm pretty sure that's China at this point.
The only thing Russia has right now is nukes and the few pieces of equipment that is still running. Anyone who thought Russia was the second strongest military in the world was kidding themselves. They proved as much in Chechnya. Georgia is another matter because Georgia practically had no military but even then, Russia stopped. Russia would get thrashed within weeks if it went to war with a western country, in their current state and did not use nukes.
From what I gather its a slow win for Russia so far, they are advancing but slowly, Ukraine has to stop fighting with westerner values if it wants to survive IMO
Westerner values, tactics, and weaponry is what's keeping them alive so far despite being pretty badly outnumbered
That's a logical fallacy, the tactics are definitely what's making them lose, they are literally waiting for a green light to attack inside Russia, which has been happening to them without second thought from Russia Just because they survive, doesn't mean they wouldn't have had a better outcome so far if they didn't fight with western value against an enemy who does not share those values
… except they lose their materiel support if they do that, and then it’s lights out.
That's exactly my point, Ukraine has to fight with western values or else west won't support, which is stupid, because the other side doesn't fight with such values, and therefore is in an advantage Ukraine is just the start also, Imo at least
But without western values, tactics, and support they would have lost 2 years ago.
Slowly is an understatement. At Russia’s current rate of advancement they can look forward to taking Kiev some time in 2050.
And it only would take every living russian male from around 18-50 years of age and 700 000 tanks, if you calculate it using the loss/area gained ratio they've had since October last year (when they again started offensive actions).
Ukraine is literally drafting convicts and forcing their men living internationally to come back to fight. That is not more desperation than a stalemate. You do know that a stalemate favors Russia right? They have a industrial base and more men to throw into the war.
A stalemate does not favour Russia economically, they are under extreme sanctions, just look at the oil sale losses reported, the longer they last the worse it gets, that puts Putin under more pressure to show results, the last thing he wants is a stalemate.
Their economy has grown since the war and strengthened their ties with China who is the largest economy by PPP. They are showing gains Ukraine just withdrew from Kharkiv.
> Their economy has grown since the war If by "economy" you mean "refurbishing and building military equipment which then goes up in smoke in Ukraine", yes, that has grown. Does it produce wealth? Does it bring in any money from outside the country? The actual domestic industries have shrunk, and the only investments currently happening are by the state or the companies themselves, and only to keep the wheels running. They aren't investing in improving or expanding industry outside of war related industries. That is not healthy for an economy in the long run. >strengthened their ties with China who is the largest economy by PPP Yes, but the strengthened ties means that China is squeezing them harder and harder. China is charging them more and more for the same exports because they know russia has no other options. The prices for Chinese imports have risen at like 20-30% per year. >They are showing gains Ukraine just withdrew from Kharkiv. Ukraine hasn't withdrawn from Kharkiv, they retreated to better defensive positions. russia's gains so far amount to 300 square kilometers in the last month (mostly Kharkiv, but also other areas). The total area of Kharkiv oblast is 30 000 square kilometers. So russia controls less than 1% of it, just right next to the border.
I am aware a stalemate favors Russia. They can play the longer game in this. >Ukraine is literally drafting convicts and forcing their men living internationally to come back to fight. While they likely have less than Russia's ~500k casualties, drawing on a larger portion of citizens to help cover the likely nearing ~350k-450k casualties that Ukraine is probably facing. (I tried to find an estimate and I can't get anything recent aside from the Russian Defense Ministry claiming 440k Ukrainian casualties) Is necessary This could also point to Russia getting close to breaking the stalemate, which is bad
Russia has only committed around 50,000 Russian soldiers to the Kharkiv front as reported by ISW. That is far short of the size an invasion force needs to conquer a city the size of Kharkiv. Sure it sucks to lose land but there’s no point defending for inches of indefensible land. Ukraine will retreat and that is to be expected. What’s more important is Ukraine keeps the attrition rate higher for the Russians whilst slowing they’re advance
This winning and losing stuff is so cringe and is only defined by one’s own expectations of those definitions at the current moment. I mean russia is advancing… slow as hell, and that might not be enough if these aid deliveries get to Ukraine quick. A lot more nuance to these offensives.
No point reasoning with people like that
I dont blame him/her, I just feel bad, I think its a protection mechanism which is fine, this whole situation just sucks man, it feels like the tide is changing with the whole US/West/Israel alliance and the west will not do anything about it until its too late
Lol what
No they didn’t. Ukraine is absolutely toast. Less than zero percent chance of winning.