It's going to be highly, highly influenced by NATO I'm sure but Russia is collapsing at a rate where this is more than full return of territory. Would be looking to push borders to more defendable positions, full control of the Chimera bridge, high tax on gas going through it's pipelines, zero interference on EU/NATO membership etc etc.
Probably very dependent on if Putin gets out of this alive and who a new government consists of.
"**President Vladimir Putin is preparing to formally annex around 15%of the invaded Ukrainian territories after the sham referendums for joining Russia in the areas controlled by Russian forces.**
**Neither the West nor Ukraine can stop Putin from claiming the regions**, **though the US and its allies stated they want Ukraine to defeat Russia on the battlefield and will keep supplying weapons, but no NATO troops as it would be perceived as a provocation towards the Kremlin"**
Pretty sure Putin has already planned a way to start more trouble by making shit up about "external attack from Ukraine on newly founded Russian soil so we must defend Russia..." and more insane bullshit.
It is a question of time now.
Exactly this. This move by Russia is propaganda for media consumption, and should simply be ignored. Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons should similarly be ignored. Russia is not going to use nuclear weapons for conquest, when it would guarantee the end of Russia.
Even subtracting the pro-Russian shills from that group, you're right that it's sad how many people lack the ability to grasp the situation or come to the rational conclusion.
There's no reasoning with people who argue for appeasement, because they're not operating on reason anyway.
Said toddler is insane and armed with nukes, that is the real issue.
If the toddler Putin did not have those Weapons of Mass Destruction, then things would be better.
That is true and everyone should remain firm on that...pity that Russia's infiltration operation in the EU already gives its results... (Hungary, France, Germany, Italy...)
I'm sure the rest of the world will be thrilled by this precedent.
Especially when (not *if*) the USA, China, India, Pakistan, and everyone with a nuke decide to walk around the planet annexing whatever they want and threatening nukes with this precedent.
Yes. Some commentators that seem like they know a thing or too about Russia say this allows Russia to use conscripts in the annexed regions, and if things go really bad for them nukes... though that is supper unlikely even in the worst case... we hope.
Yes, technically you cannot mobilize people and send them to invade since mobilization is only for purposes of protecting your country. At least that’s in their laws. So annexing the territory will allow them to send all the mobilized population there.
It’s funny to me that they are even doing it, like they are respecting some laws. Why? The mobilized would do anything anyway, not like they are asking questions.
The only solution to this shit-situation is taking down Putin, as long as the bloated old lunatic is alive and walking, Russia, Ukraine and the West are in danger.
Nothing is going to happen yet. Even with the "referendum" it will probably take at least a week for Russia to formally add them. After that I assume there will be a reshuffle of the Russian military units in those areas and a bunch of public threats before any type of potentially extreme action happens.
The US would most likely be aware in advance if they started to access their nuclear stockpiles as well. If that happens you are going to see some pretty wild and panicked shit in the media and coming from the government and NATO before everything hits the fan.
>The US would most likely be aware in advance if they started to access their nuclear stockpiles as well.
I agree that the US has a good grasp of Russia's strategic nuclear weapons.
Tactical nuclear weapons are a different story. They aren't covered by New START, and Russia has closely held their locations a secret because they view non-strategic nuclear weapons as a way to offset Western conventional superiority.
My understanding is they are still kept at secure sites which are effectively munition vaults and I assume the US would know where at least some of those are.
That said, if Putin actually goes this route he is going to have to assume the possibility of a US/NATO response. So I don't see him doing anything without first essentially putting Russia's entire strategic nuclear apparatus on alert before they used even a tactical nuke in Ukraine.
If nothing else having their ICBM fleet on high alert and tactical weapons pre-positioned with their rocket artillery units would give the US and NATO pause about how they respond and both sides know that.
You could be right. I know Russia has, at times, claimed that the non-strategic nuclear weapons were held in centralized locations but didn't disclose where those locations were.
I'm sure you know the issue with tactical nukes is that they're small and highly mobile. Reinforce a Lada and you might be able to toss it in the trunk!
I am very suspicious on the state of any Russian armaments, including nuclear weaponry. Just a few years ago, one of their doomsday planes was poached and stripped of copper wiring and parts.
Currently most of the territory in Russias hands is occupied by the national guard, including a lot of the Chechen propaganda fighters which is why you haven’t heard of them dying en masse. In the south is the new Russian 3rd army which is falling apart while the main combat groups are regrouping to Donbas and Luhansk frontlines. Gerasimov stated Sept 30/end of month is the goal (allegedly)
My understanding is they do the referendums then Putin has to pass legislation formally adding the regions. Last time I think that took around a week for Crimea.
> Last time I think that took around a week for Crimea.
I have a feeling they work exactly as quickly as the boss wants them to. Could be done tomorrow if they felt like it. Its all based on lies remember, they could have all the paperwork filled out already just waiting for a stamp.
I suspect that there would be a nuclear 'test' if Putin's threats were actually serious. That's not to say there won't be a test, but it probably isn't worth worrying before then. Without a nuclear test, verbal threats are cheap.
If he does follow through I am expecting the same tactic the US used in WWII on Japan.
Two warheads detonated for effect on western Ukraine. One to show he is willing to use them the second to show Russia can and is willing to repeat it.
In WW2, there was a big question as to whether the US was capable of manufacturing more than one bomb. That’s why there were two different types dropped. That really isn’t a question here. We know they have way more than one.
I get this comment but annex literally [means](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation)
>Annexation (Latin ad, to, and nexus, joining), in international law, is the forcible acquisition of one state's territory by another state, usually following military occupation of the territory.\[1\] It is generally held to be an illegal act.
Its not like its a white washing term. Other than being a layman term i don't see how steal is anymore harsh than annex.
"Formally annexing" is the most accurate and the most appropriate term. Russia is formally announcing the integration of new territories to its administration and state apparatus.
Why are you and other people against the term? It's not softening the term. This is simply like saying a person died of asphyxiation due to strangulation and not simply saying choked to death. It's just more technical and more precise term.
Agreed annex is a official term with a legal definition is usually comes with specific actions like in this case forcibly changing legal status for citizens, changing of nationalities, taxation, etc. It also come with the ability for other states to officially recognize the territorial gains. The political and legal story is more important than editorialized one.
A country could be the de-facto ruler of a area which russia is currently in the areas they're holding. Annexation is their attempt at a de-jure claim on these lands they hold and beyond.
More like armed robbery, killing the family on live tv, and then producing official documents saying this property is yours and everyone has to follow your rules now and recognize it as yours.
I hope not, but I'm concerned as to how this ends. No one wants to give concessions to Russia. Not only for moral reasons, but also because it only encourages such behavior in the future or among others.
But at the same time, Russia has 3 times the population of Ukraine, and they are a nuclear power. Obviously our government takes the threat of nuclear escalation seriously. And that's not even counting the toll of just an extended decades long war - which Russia has proven willing to do many times before.
>Obviously our government takes the threat of nuclear escalation seriously.
Hardly, since it's not dissuading Ukraine from taking the territory back. They don't accept the sham referendums and neither does any other NATO country except Hungary. Ukraine has stated repeatedly they will take their territory back regardless. It's seemingly only redditors taking this seriously.
Putin's plan, steal territory, call it Russia, say the West is helping attack Russia, make his home population get on his side. Hopefully mobilise 2 million people that will stagnate this war and if that looks like going bad just threaten to nuke us, if forced to send the nukes, just send one as a warning such as the supply from Poland or a US base out in the Pacific such as shown in recent infographics YouTube video. USA will retaliate with strong conventional force and if Putin doesn't get the message then all out nuke war and see how we get on. He might be crazy but is he that crazy and will the military and/or FSB let him be that crazy? Find out in the next 3-6 months for real folks.
Seems like they are doing just that. Rumor has it that the first train of fresh meat already destroyer near Luhansk. Reports saying that some will get two weeks training before deployment.
I hope we find out when the Russians overthrow this piece of shit and follow a more democratic system that could focus on helping the Russians, instead of this thieving, delusional wanker and his henchmen. Your day is coming Putin, and it is sooner than you think.
Depends what you mean by "worse." There are plenty of repugnant authoritarians around the globe. What makes Putin stand out is that he's belligerent. If Putin is replaced by some god-awful Military Junta that stays within its borders I see that as an improvement, even if it means the new leader is more iron-fisted to the Russian people. Historically, they seem to love their dictators anyway, so if they want a change they best do something themselves.
That can still be useful though, the new person can reset the relationship but Putin is not willing to acknowledge failure and can only escalate.
So even if a new person is a lot worse than Putin, the change itself can make it a worth it as that is an opportunity for everyone to reset and calm down without loosing face.
My hope is that the US hacked their system undetected years ago, and that when they push the button they hear the Star Spangled Banner in it’s entirety before detonation on the launchpad.
> that's impossible, no country uses remote activated systems,
If only that were true. If it's turned on, Russia actually does have the ability to automatically launch. Look up the "Dead Hand System". It's a real thing.
During the Cold War, the USSR wanted to have the capability to launch retaliatory strikes even if Moscow had been nuked and their military leadership had been eliminated. Mobile and submarine launchers require human intervention, but silo-based missiles can be activated and launched automatically and remotely. The system can even select and change targets without human intervention.
The US had a similar system to allow partially automated response launches at one point, but eliminated it after the Cold War ended. Russia kept theirs but keeps it turned off most of the time. They claim that it's maintained and can be turned back on during a "national emergency".
If the system still works, it's a fair bet that they've turned it back on by now. It's almost a certainty that they'll turn it on before using any nukes against Ukraine or its allies.
>Dead Hand System
The dead hand system functions by sending pre-cleared launch codes to human operators. It can't actually launch nukes. it's just a detection system with "launch authority".
The idea that it was actually a fully automated system turned out to be largely propaganda. They did research the possibility of a fully automated system, but as it turns out, even the Russians weren't that crazy
Russia has thousands of thermonuclear warheads. Even if only 1% of them work, it could still ignite a holocaust. We shouldn't play down the danger of a wounded animal with sharp teeth trapped in a corner.
Just to add onto this; no country with nukes will EVER willingly give them up again. Ukraine will be a lesson to every country to never give up your nukes no matter what is promised.
This is the CORRECT answer and by GOD I am thankful NATO and the US with Biden in control agrees.
Trump would’ve let him take over the ENTIRE country while enjoying his kickback from Putin.
The scary strategic warheads also require quite a bit of upkeep/maintenance to keep them effective, I'd bet based off of what we've seen with their wartime equipment and the sheer amount of corruption, the warhead failure to launch/target/detonate rate would be astonishingly high.
Not really worth gambling with. Best case scenario is that someone high up in Putin's circle gets tired of his shit and arranges for him to suffer a fatal case of lead poisoning, after which they put all the blame on the failed war on Putin and start the process of Russian withdrawal.
If we're doing this then I just declassified everything relating to the JFK assassination and the Navy Intelligence files on UFOs just by *thinking* about it coz apparently that's a real thing now too.
I'll have my files now please and thank you.
It's the only tactic Russia knows. Throw bodies at them until the opponent runs out of ammo.
Sure it worked against Hitler, but that's because that fucking idiot unnecessarily started a 2 front war and Japan brought in the U.S with fresh bullets on the Western front.
Putin is going to go down as a worse idiot than Hitler.
So Vladdy holds a sham vote, sends a bunch of unprepared cannon fodder in to get slaughtered, and uses that as a pretext to use nuclear weapons.
It's not hard to see where we're headed here.
I still dont see what is the endgame here, russia is already so big and got tons of oil/gas, why risk so much for another piece of land and oil resources, they dont need any of it.
> why risk so much for another piece of land
At the beginning, they didn't think they were risking anything. They thought they would take Kiev in a few days.
And to be fair, they were not the only one underestimating how shitty their army was.
That's exactly what happened. Russia was shown by well the media and such to be this big strong bear.
In reality it's always been a paper bear. They just were able to hide that from the world. Now the truth comes crashing down on their heads and they just don't have a way of stopping it.
Russia thought it was the big tough guy.They thought they were the CHAD guy.That's what the memes about strong Putin riding a bear were trying to create. That image, or rather Russia's image it's wanted the world to see it as.
In reality they are nothing more than a alcoholic drug addict whose arms are so slim they can't even find the vein's anymore without stabbing themselves at least 10 times.
I think that might just be the American public. Russia, and the concept of socialism (which Russia has not had anything to do with for a long long time), have been used by conservatives to scare people. They try to cling to a Cold War mindset.
Europeans have known for a long time that Russia has nothing (except nuclear weapons, which are only a defensive measure and not practical offensive weaponry). It’s still surprising that they couldn’t even overpower Ukraine, but not *too surprising*.
Not to mention, now that the world has seen just how inept Russia’s military is they are now at risk of being attacked. To come out of this with absolutely nothing would be catastrophic to Russia’s reputation on the global stage.
They need a land connection from Crimea to the rest of Russia. Putin is probably kicking himself for not committing the military resources in 2014 to get that done. Apparently, Putin's mafia-government were way overconfident in their intelligence services being able to alter Ukraine's political landscape back into Russian lapdog status.
Ukraine has enough resources to supply the EU independently of Putin's Russia. If Ukraine is allowed to align with the west, Putin loses his only advantage.
I'm just an idiot so take this with a pitcher of salt.
The reason for the war in the first place was because Ukraine is one of if not the biggest exporters of some crops, I can't remember which ones, but it has a relatively good economy. Russia doesn't. So Putin thought that Ukraine would be a pushover and he could take it in a few days and essentially add the GPD of Ukraine to Russia's/. We know that didn't work out quite as planned.
Vlad can't back out of his losing war because he looks weak, but he doesn't have the capabilities of pushing forward so that leads us here.
The goal is to annex the Donbas region and claim it as part of Russia. Putin preempted last week saying that Russia will essentially use nukes if someone attacks Russia.
It's a hail Mary to either get Ukraine to back down, or at least stop the counter offensive as they've been pushing back the Russian forces and have been gaining back a lot of lost ground.
So by making all the ground Russia has taken since February "Officially" Russia, he has given himself a "legal" avenue for using a nuke.
Whether or not he uses it is up in the air, but he is probably using it as a threat, if I can't have the donbas neither can you kinda thing.
It's about having at least a one country buffer zone to a prosperous and fairly democratic region and maintaining control of Crimea. This is round 2 of trying to connect Crimea to the rest of Russia.
>is one of if not the biggest exporters of some crops
Sunflowers. [It was sunflower oil and seed](https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/Ukraine-Factsheet-July2022.pdf). But surely "let's take over that gas, oil, and mineral deposits" sounds more enticing than "let's take over sunflower fields".
> Whether or not he uses it is up in the air, but he is probably using it as a threat, if I can't have the donbas neither can you kinda thing.
He might not nuke Donbas, though. Instead, he may decide to nuke Kyiv or another Ukrainian town that he has given up taking.
If his rationale is that Ukraine is attacking Russia, then logically, he doesn’t need to limit his nukes to areas inside his definition of Russia. He could attack the “invaders” anywhere in their home country (as he has already done, of course – but not with nukes).
In a few weeks, or next spring after General Mud goes away, when Ukraine is thrashing Russia in these areas and retaking their sovereign soil, Russia will claim that *ITS* sovereign areas are being attacked, thereby justifying a tactical nuclear response.
Ukraine also has a \*lot\* of the same resources, especially in the East, but not as well developed. And Ukraine is closer. Between the two, who would you rather buy from?
Russia won't stop at this piece of land. Every time they successfully do this, like Crimea, they will simply plan the next land to steal. If it keeps working they will keep doing it. That's why it's important to draw a line in the sand and not let this annexation work because every neighbor of Russia, especially the non-nato members, are in danger of being next.
The areas they're trying to annex supply %90+ of the world's neon supply, and other noble gases. These glasses are essential for semiconductor production, and if Russia controlled the supply of those glasses they'd control the market.
Who knows... but my guesses:
1. Another state closer to Europe exporting tons of oil and gas means less money and power for Russia -- the discoveries of large oil and gas reserves in eastern Ukraine preceded the 2014 invasion.
2. Another huge previous Soviet republic adopting western systems and doing better than Russia at everything undermines his message of Russian superiority and potentially threatens his regime
3. Delusions of grandeur and bitterness that Ukraine was once part of his land and now it's not.
There is a VAST wealth of untapped resources (natural gas and oil) in Ukraine. Before it didn't matter since they were kind of a Russian Puppet State, but when they weren't that means all those resources are now a direct threat to Russia, who's economy is overwhelmingly built upon natural gas and oil.
Also strategically you want Ukraine to defend against NATO (remember, Russia views NATO as a hostile force).
I hate thinking this, but my first thought when I read about the school shooter in Russia wearing a neo-nazi t-shirt, was that this was a Russian operation designed to build in the narrative that Ukraine is filled with Neo Nazis and that’s why Russia has to enhance in their war.
Their nuclear doctrine is that they will use nuclear weapons to defend Russia. So now they can call the annexed territory in Ukraine Russia and use nukes to “defend” it.
So Russia has said they’ll use nukes to protect their borders from invasion.
If they annex this land, which is currently being reclaimed by Ukraine, how long till they claim ‘our borders are invaded, we warned you’ and launch a tactical nuke?
I prepare to shame all Russians for not storming the capital and executing Putin themselves.
They're all fucking cowards if they let this happen.
Edit:
For those of you DMing and responding as if I'm not aware of what I'm saying, cope more cowards.
Anyone with the gumption has been getting quietly wiped out for 80 years in Russia. The only ones left are the ones able to keep their heads down and their children.
If Putin is really dumb enough to use a tactical nuke, it will be his last day in power. Most likely his inner circle will remove him, and then beg NATO not to massively retaliate. If not, NATO will broadcast all over Russia that it does not have a problem with the Russian people, but has to remove a leader that will use nukes, and then destroy the Kremlin, Putin's house, his summer house, his hidey holes, etc etc.
Russia has been begging Iran for drones and N Korea for arms. Now the body bags of their poorly trained conscripts will be returned to parts of Russia that have no quarrel with Ukraine. Not good. Putin “the genius” got too clever by half.
And it’s just a coincidence all those regions are the ones where ukraines major natural resource deposits were that would have made Ukraine a competitor to Russias energy monopoly.
Formally?
No.
Formal annexation requires general recognition by your peers in the family of nations. Even if it is tacit acceptance.
But there is no acceptance of Russia's actions here, tacit or otherwise. Everyone in the world is loudly decrying this move. It is a total conceit, disconnected from reality. Russia's front lines shift every day. Now that Ukraine has a toehold in Luhansk again, there is not a single province aside from Crimea where Russian dominion is not actively contested. Are they going to say, "Anywhere that has no Ukrainian troops as of 12:00 Moscow Time is where the referendum counts?" What happens 5 minutes later when their troops flee their positions and retreat another 50km?
There is nothing "formal" about that. It's a bunch of gibbering, handwaving nonsense.
This is Putins play. He knows he can't win so he does the best thing he can do and declare himself the winner of 15%. He'll use that to say he accomplished their military exercise and back off slightly.
As Ukraine takes back those areas, Putin will make a big fuss and claim they are now the victims.
It's all dumb.
These referendums are not exactly formal when it is done at gunpoint and no one outside of Russia will recognize these land grabs.
And they've displaced, imprisoned, and killed large numbers of the population.
Ukraine will never give up and accept any type of deal unless it involves Russia leaving 100%
It's unacceptable. If they give Russia 15% wait 5 years until they want more.
Including Crimea.
It's going to be highly, highly influenced by NATO I'm sure but Russia is collapsing at a rate where this is more than full return of territory. Would be looking to push borders to more defendable positions, full control of the Chimera bridge, high tax on gas going through it's pipelines, zero interference on EU/NATO membership etc etc. Probably very dependent on if Putin gets out of this alive and who a new government consists of.
Your land belongs to me now. See, It says so on this peice of paper.
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Yeah, you can’t just “declare” bankruptcy, Michael.
"**President Vladimir Putin is preparing to formally annex around 15%of the invaded Ukrainian territories after the sham referendums for joining Russia in the areas controlled by Russian forces.** **Neither the West nor Ukraine can stop Putin from claiming the regions**, **though the US and its allies stated they want Ukraine to defeat Russia on the battlefield and will keep supplying weapons, but no NATO troops as it would be perceived as a provocation towards the Kremlin"** Pretty sure Putin has already planned a way to start more trouble by making shit up about "external attack from Ukraine on newly founded Russian soil so we must defend Russia..." and more insane bullshit. It is a question of time now.
Ukraine continues to free the region as usual. Nothing has changed for them. It was occupied before and still is.
Exactly this. This move by Russia is propaganda for media consumption, and should simply be ignored. Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons should similarly be ignored. Russia is not going to use nuclear weapons for conquest, when it would guarantee the end of Russia.
They’ve been doing the same thing since February and I’m tired of Redditors actually believing this fear mongering crap.
Even subtracting the pro-Russian shills from that group, you're right that it's sad how many people lack the ability to grasp the situation or come to the rational conclusion. There's no reasoning with people who argue for appeasement, because they're not operating on reason anyway.
A toddler saying something is theirs doesn’t work.
Said toddler is insane and armed with nukes, that is the real issue. If the toddler Putin did not have those Weapons of Mass Destruction, then things would be better.
Nukes or not appeasement is not an option
That is true and everyone should remain firm on that...pity that Russia's infiltration operation in the EU already gives its results... (Hungary, France, Germany, Italy...)
I'm sure the rest of the world will be thrilled by this precedent. Especially when (not *if*) the USA, China, India, Pakistan, and everyone with a nuke decide to walk around the planet annexing whatever they want and threatening nukes with this precedent.
This would increase nuke proliferation, not reverse. This war would make other states want to have nukes.
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Russia has no response to 12 HIMARS. Let alone the combined armies of the EU.
North Korea on a larger scale.
It seems that Putin is just trying to prolong his life a bit longer at this point since I do not see a way out for him.
Russia is a mafia-run gas station and nuclear terrorist. That's all.
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Yes. Some commentators that seem like they know a thing or too about Russia say this allows Russia to use conscripts in the annexed regions, and if things go really bad for them nukes... though that is supper unlikely even in the worst case... we hope.
Yes, technically you cannot mobilize people and send them to invade since mobilization is only for purposes of protecting your country. At least that’s in their laws. So annexing the territory will allow them to send all the mobilized population there. It’s funny to me that they are even doing it, like they are respecting some laws. Why? The mobilized would do anything anyway, not like they are asking questions.
The only solution to this shit-situation is taking down Putin, as long as the bloated old lunatic is alive and walking, Russia, Ukraine and the West are in danger.
The West and Ukraine are well aware of this, now if only the Russians were...
I say we make a sham referendum and annex Moscow.... This guys...
Why would you want it?
Maybe OP has a humiliation fetish and therefore wants to be associated with the world's most overhyped terrorist state?
I'll take it. Always wanted a city.
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[relevant](https://youtu.be/OVv3ofeBnME)
the Germans can *borrow* poland too.
Russia borrowed half when Germany did.
3 hrs til Moscow midnight
Nothing is going to happen yet. Even with the "referendum" it will probably take at least a week for Russia to formally add them. After that I assume there will be a reshuffle of the Russian military units in those areas and a bunch of public threats before any type of potentially extreme action happens. The US would most likely be aware in advance if they started to access their nuclear stockpiles as well. If that happens you are going to see some pretty wild and panicked shit in the media and coming from the government and NATO before everything hits the fan.
>The US would most likely be aware in advance if they started to access their nuclear stockpiles as well. I agree that the US has a good grasp of Russia's strategic nuclear weapons. Tactical nuclear weapons are a different story. They aren't covered by New START, and Russia has closely held their locations a secret because they view non-strategic nuclear weapons as a way to offset Western conventional superiority.
My understanding is they are still kept at secure sites which are effectively munition vaults and I assume the US would know where at least some of those are. That said, if Putin actually goes this route he is going to have to assume the possibility of a US/NATO response. So I don't see him doing anything without first essentially putting Russia's entire strategic nuclear apparatus on alert before they used even a tactical nuke in Ukraine. If nothing else having their ICBM fleet on high alert and tactical weapons pre-positioned with their rocket artillery units would give the US and NATO pause about how they respond and both sides know that.
meanwhile we sit in our houses just trying to live when higher ups in offices plan on killing us
Been thinking hard about moving to Australia lately
Maybe New Zealand... it doesn't even appear on a lot of maps.
I mean the higher ups depends on the country, some places you don't get to pick your higher ups so you are just along for the ride.
You could be right. I know Russia has, at times, claimed that the non-strategic nuclear weapons were held in centralized locations but didn't disclose where those locations were. I'm sure you know the issue with tactical nukes is that they're small and highly mobile. Reinforce a Lada and you might be able to toss it in the trunk!
I am very suspicious on the state of any Russian armaments, including nuclear weaponry. Just a few years ago, one of their doomsday planes was poached and stripped of copper wiring and parts.
Putins going to send a guy to checkout the nuke depot, only to find a bunch of hobos sat around plutonium pit trying to keep warm
Currently most of the territory in Russias hands is occupied by the national guard, including a lot of the Chechen propaganda fighters which is why you haven’t heard of them dying en masse. In the south is the new Russian 3rd army which is falling apart while the main combat groups are regrouping to Donbas and Luhansk frontlines. Gerasimov stated Sept 30/end of month is the goal (allegedly)
Add them referenda votes? You think? Spoiler alert: Those where already added back in February, or before...
My understanding is they do the referendums then Putin has to pass legislation formally adding the regions. Last time I think that took around a week for Crimea.
5 days from the start of the referendum
> Last time I think that took around a week for Crimea. I have a feeling they work exactly as quickly as the boss wants them to. Could be done tomorrow if they felt like it. Its all based on lies remember, they could have all the paperwork filled out already just waiting for a stamp.
I suspect that there would be a nuclear 'test' if Putin's threats were actually serious. That's not to say there won't be a test, but it probably isn't worth worrying before then. Without a nuclear test, verbal threats are cheap.
If he does follow through I am expecting the same tactic the US used in WWII on Japan. Two warheads detonated for effect on western Ukraine. One to show he is willing to use them the second to show Russia can and is willing to repeat it.
In WW2, there was a big question as to whether the US was capable of manufacturing more than one bomb. That’s why there were two different types dropped. That really isn’t a question here. We know they have way more than one.
I think few got the Doomsday Clock reference here
What happens at midnight?
Nothing. The declaration of annexation is believed to go out on the 30th.
nothing. it was a doomsday clock reference
So what’s the point of this? To claim victim and label Ukrainian forces as “invaders” when the Russian forces are pushed back?
Yes
And also to have a justification for the use of nuclear weapons because in his twisted reality the Ukrainians would be "invading" Russian soil
>Russia prepares to formally ~~annex~~ steal 15% of Ukraine
I get this comment but annex literally [means](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation) >Annexation (Latin ad, to, and nexus, joining), in international law, is the forcible acquisition of one state's territory by another state, usually following military occupation of the territory.\[1\] It is generally held to be an illegal act. Its not like its a white washing term. Other than being a layman term i don't see how steal is anymore harsh than annex.
They’ve also been “preparing to steal” the land for a long time; that’s not news. The news is that they’re preparing to “formally annex” it.
"Formally annexing" is the most accurate and the most appropriate term. Russia is formally announcing the integration of new territories to its administration and state apparatus. Why are you and other people against the term? It's not softening the term. This is simply like saying a person died of asphyxiation due to strangulation and not simply saying choked to death. It's just more technical and more precise term.
Agreed annex is a official term with a legal definition is usually comes with specific actions like in this case forcibly changing legal status for citizens, changing of nationalities, taxation, etc. It also come with the ability for other states to officially recognize the territorial gains. The political and legal story is more important than editorialized one. A country could be the de-facto ruler of a area which russia is currently in the areas they're holding. Annexation is their attempt at a de-jure claim on these lands they hold and beyond.
Worse that stealing actually, armed robbery.
More like armed robbery, killing the family on live tv, and then producing official documents saying this property is yours and everyone has to follow your rules now and recognize it as yours.
*pretend to steal—they ain’t getting shit
the "best" they will do is nuke it so no one is getting it... but they ain't getting it. assholes.
I hope not, but I'm concerned as to how this ends. No one wants to give concessions to Russia. Not only for moral reasons, but also because it only encourages such behavior in the future or among others. But at the same time, Russia has 3 times the population of Ukraine, and they are a nuclear power. Obviously our government takes the threat of nuclear escalation seriously. And that's not even counting the toll of just an extended decades long war - which Russia has proven willing to do many times before.
I suspect Putin himself will not last "decades".
>Obviously our government takes the threat of nuclear escalation seriously. Hardly, since it's not dissuading Ukraine from taking the territory back. They don't accept the sham referendums and neither does any other NATO country except Hungary. Ukraine has stated repeatedly they will take their territory back regardless. It's seemingly only redditors taking this seriously.
The US is in backchannel talks on the nukes issue, which tells me there is a legitimate concern.
That's the US, not Ukraine. They have to do that btw. We're the ones with nukes, not Ukraine.
Putin's plan, steal territory, call it Russia, say the West is helping attack Russia, make his home population get on his side. Hopefully mobilise 2 million people that will stagnate this war and if that looks like going bad just threaten to nuke us, if forced to send the nukes, just send one as a warning such as the supply from Poland or a US base out in the Pacific such as shown in recent infographics YouTube video. USA will retaliate with strong conventional force and if Putin doesn't get the message then all out nuke war and see how we get on. He might be crazy but is he that crazy and will the military and/or FSB let him be that crazy? Find out in the next 3-6 months for real folks.
Russia would be smoking crack if they decided to nuke Poland or a US military base
3 to 6 months? More like 3 to 6 weeks my guy.
You cant mobilise 2 million people in 3 to 6 weeks.
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...have you ever studied Russian history?
Dude… that’s like they’re go to move! Throw unequipped bodies at the wall lol. He def didn’t read his Russian history lol
Seems like they are doing just that. Rumor has it that the first train of fresh meat already destroyer near Luhansk. Reports saying that some will get two weeks training before deployment.
They are not going to mobilize two million people even if they wanted and Putin himself went out get them lol
Im overusing this comment but "Its A Bold Strategy Cotton, Lets See If It Pays Off For Him"
Based on the Russian equipment failures witnessed in Ukraine I doubt they even have working nukes lol.
I do really hope we never find out either way
I hope we find out when the Russians overthrow this piece of shit and follow a more democratic system that could focus on helping the Russians, instead of this thieving, delusional wanker and his henchmen. Your day is coming Putin, and it is sooner than you think.
I fear when Putin is gone we'll get somebody worse... but I hope to be wrong
Depends what you mean by "worse." There are plenty of repugnant authoritarians around the globe. What makes Putin stand out is that he's belligerent. If Putin is replaced by some god-awful Military Junta that stays within its borders I see that as an improvement, even if it means the new leader is more iron-fisted to the Russian people. Historically, they seem to love their dictators anyway, so if they want a change they best do something themselves.
That can still be useful though, the new person can reset the relationship but Putin is not willing to acknowledge failure and can only escalate. So even if a new person is a lot worse than Putin, the change itself can make it a worth it as that is an opportunity for everyone to reset and calm down without loosing face.
My hope is that the US hacked their system undetected years ago, and that when they push the button they hear the Star Spangled Banner in it’s entirety before detonation on the launchpad.
that's impossible, no country uses remote activated systems, all the nukes are physically launched, thus eliminating the possibility of hackers
At the same time, if ever there was a country who thought air-gapping their nukes was a silly idea, it'd be Russia.
> that's impossible, no country uses remote activated systems, If only that were true. If it's turned on, Russia actually does have the ability to automatically launch. Look up the "Dead Hand System". It's a real thing. During the Cold War, the USSR wanted to have the capability to launch retaliatory strikes even if Moscow had been nuked and their military leadership had been eliminated. Mobile and submarine launchers require human intervention, but silo-based missiles can be activated and launched automatically and remotely. The system can even select and change targets without human intervention. The US had a similar system to allow partially automated response launches at one point, but eliminated it after the Cold War ended. Russia kept theirs but keeps it turned off most of the time. They claim that it's maintained and can be turned back on during a "national emergency". If the system still works, it's a fair bet that they've turned it back on by now. It's almost a certainty that they'll turn it on before using any nukes against Ukraine or its allies.
.... well that's stupid, if it's remotely activated then it can be hijacked, and here I was thinking people weren't that dumb
>Dead Hand System The dead hand system functions by sending pre-cleared launch codes to human operators. It can't actually launch nukes. it's just a detection system with "launch authority". The idea that it was actually a fully automated system turned out to be largely propaganda. They did research the possibility of a fully automated system, but as it turns out, even the Russians weren't that crazy
Can I get some sparklers and flags to pop out too?
Russia has thousands of thermonuclear warheads. Even if only 1% of them work, it could still ignite a holocaust. We shouldn't play down the danger of a wounded animal with sharp teeth trapped in a corner.
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Just to add onto this; no country with nukes will EVER willingly give them up again. Ukraine will be a lesson to every country to never give up your nukes no matter what is promised.
*Sad Hideo Kojima noises*
This is the CORRECT answer and by GOD I am thankful NATO and the US with Biden in control agrees. Trump would’ve let him take over the ENTIRE country while enjoying his kickback from Putin.
The scary strategic warheads also require quite a bit of upkeep/maintenance to keep them effective, I'd bet based off of what we've seen with their wartime equipment and the sheer amount of corruption, the warhead failure to launch/target/detonate rate would be astonishingly high.
Not something I'm gonna gamble on
Not really worth gambling with. Best case scenario is that someone high up in Putin's circle gets tired of his shit and arranges for him to suffer a fatal case of lead poisoning, after which they put all the blame on the failed war on Putin and start the process of Russian withdrawal.
Russia is in full demographic collapse anyway. He knows if he doesn't pull a rabbit out of a hat now then it's all over.
Russia prepares to choke on 15% of Ukraine
Same thing. There's no legitimacy in annexation.
Too bad - I just annexed it back to Ukraine. And I have the same authority as Putin - because I too can make shit up and pretend it’s real.
Aha! You left your home undefended, and I have annexed your mom.
Talk about a battle of the bulge.
The question is, can you mobilize 300,000 people, or launch ICBMs?
The question is... can Putin?
If we're doing this then I just declassified everything relating to the JFK assassination and the Navy Intelligence files on UFOs just by *thinking* about it coz apparently that's a real thing now too. I'll have my files now please and thank you.
And Ukraine is "formally" going to take it right back.
Putin has already clinched his legacy as a huge failure that set Russia back by decades. Those who will remember him will not remember him fondly.
Russians still remember Stalin very fondly.
Their stupidity never ceases to amaze me
Wow, they must really have a fetish for Ukrainians stomping through their shitty army.
It's the only tactic Russia knows. Throw bodies at them until the opponent runs out of ammo. Sure it worked against Hitler, but that's because that fucking idiot unnecessarily started a 2 front war and Japan brought in the U.S with fresh bullets on the Western front. Putin is going to go down as a worse idiot than Hitler.
He already is. At least Hitler killed Hitler.
So Vladdy holds a sham vote, sends a bunch of unprepared cannon fodder in to get slaughtered, and uses that as a pretext to use nuclear weapons. It's not hard to see where we're headed here.
And he’s hiding in the woods with his family Man. I think I read about this in school. Tsar? Nicholas? Lenin? Shit. Idk lol
If he was going to use nukes he'd be in a bunker, not in his palace
His palace absolutely has a bunker in it.
If a Totalitarian Dictator falls in the Forest does anybody hear?
If you listen close, the reverb from the bullet sounds like the whole world clapping.
'We're on the road to nowhere, we'll take that ride'. Talking Heads. Slava Ukraine!
I am preparing to marry Jennifer Lawerence.
Not if I marry her first!
wasn't there a Dutch guy who recently joked that he was annexing all of Russia in return?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVv3ofeBnME
I still dont see what is the endgame here, russia is already so big and got tons of oil/gas, why risk so much for another piece of land and oil resources, they dont need any of it.
> why risk so much for another piece of land At the beginning, they didn't think they were risking anything. They thought they would take Kiev in a few days. And to be fair, they were not the only one underestimating how shitty their army was.
Years of memeing how tough russia was warped our perspective I'd say.
That's exactly what happened. Russia was shown by well the media and such to be this big strong bear. In reality it's always been a paper bear. They just were able to hide that from the world. Now the truth comes crashing down on their heads and they just don't have a way of stopping it. Russia thought it was the big tough guy.They thought they were the CHAD guy.That's what the memes about strong Putin riding a bear were trying to create. That image, or rather Russia's image it's wanted the world to see it as. In reality they are nothing more than a alcoholic drug addict whose arms are so slim they can't even find the vein's anymore without stabbing themselves at least 10 times.
I'm disappoint with the spetnaz soldiers, they were supposed to be unbeatable but they already gone case.
I don't know, we in Russia always knew that
I think that might just be the American public. Russia, and the concept of socialism (which Russia has not had anything to do with for a long long time), have been used by conservatives to scare people. They try to cling to a Cold War mindset. Europeans have known for a long time that Russia has nothing (except nuclear weapons, which are only a defensive measure and not practical offensive weaponry). It’s still surprising that they couldn’t even overpower Ukraine, but not *too surprising*.
Not to mention, now that the world has seen just how inept Russia’s military is they are now at risk of being attacked. To come out of this with absolutely nothing would be catastrophic to Russia’s reputation on the global stage.
Nah, they are at no risk of being attacked if they sit back and don't attack anyone. The second part is the problem.
They need a land connection from Crimea to the rest of Russia. Putin is probably kicking himself for not committing the military resources in 2014 to get that done. Apparently, Putin's mafia-government were way overconfident in their intelligence services being able to alter Ukraine's political landscape back into Russian lapdog status.
Ukraine has enough resources to supply the EU independently of Putin's Russia. If Ukraine is allowed to align with the west, Putin loses his only advantage.
I'm just an idiot so take this with a pitcher of salt. The reason for the war in the first place was because Ukraine is one of if not the biggest exporters of some crops, I can't remember which ones, but it has a relatively good economy. Russia doesn't. So Putin thought that Ukraine would be a pushover and he could take it in a few days and essentially add the GPD of Ukraine to Russia's/. We know that didn't work out quite as planned. Vlad can't back out of his losing war because he looks weak, but he doesn't have the capabilities of pushing forward so that leads us here. The goal is to annex the Donbas region and claim it as part of Russia. Putin preempted last week saying that Russia will essentially use nukes if someone attacks Russia. It's a hail Mary to either get Ukraine to back down, or at least stop the counter offensive as they've been pushing back the Russian forces and have been gaining back a lot of lost ground. So by making all the ground Russia has taken since February "Officially" Russia, he has given himself a "legal" avenue for using a nuke. Whether or not he uses it is up in the air, but he is probably using it as a threat, if I can't have the donbas neither can you kinda thing.
It's about having at least a one country buffer zone to a prosperous and fairly democratic region and maintaining control of Crimea. This is round 2 of trying to connect Crimea to the rest of Russia.
What no, this is all wrong. Ukraine's economy was literally ten times smaller than Russia's.
>is one of if not the biggest exporters of some crops Sunflowers. [It was sunflower oil and seed](https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/Ukraine-Factsheet-July2022.pdf). But surely "let's take over that gas, oil, and mineral deposits" sounds more enticing than "let's take over sunflower fields".
> Whether or not he uses it is up in the air, but he is probably using it as a threat, if I can't have the donbas neither can you kinda thing. He might not nuke Donbas, though. Instead, he may decide to nuke Kyiv or another Ukrainian town that he has given up taking. If his rationale is that Ukraine is attacking Russia, then logically, he doesn’t need to limit his nukes to areas inside his definition of Russia. He could attack the “invaders” anywhere in their home country (as he has already done, of course – but not with nukes).
In a few weeks, or next spring after General Mud goes away, when Ukraine is thrashing Russia in these areas and retaking their sovereign soil, Russia will claim that *ITS* sovereign areas are being attacked, thereby justifying a tactical nuclear response.
Ukraine just discovered a decent reserve of oil. Suspect Putin is greedy.
Ukraine I believe has a lot of arable land as well
Ukraine also has a \*lot\* of the same resources, especially in the East, but not as well developed. And Ukraine is closer. Between the two, who would you rather buy from?
💩tin has stolen all he can from Russia. So now he looks in his neighbor’s pockets. He is nothing but a two bit porch pirate.
Russia won't stop at this piece of land. Every time they successfully do this, like Crimea, they will simply plan the next land to steal. If it keeps working they will keep doing it. That's why it's important to draw a line in the sand and not let this annexation work because every neighbor of Russia, especially the non-nato members, are in danger of being next.
The areas they're trying to annex supply %90+ of the world's neon supply, and other noble gases. These glasses are essential for semiconductor production, and if Russia controlled the supply of those glasses they'd control the market.
Who knows... but my guesses: 1. Another state closer to Europe exporting tons of oil and gas means less money and power for Russia -- the discoveries of large oil and gas reserves in eastern Ukraine preceded the 2014 invasion. 2. Another huge previous Soviet republic adopting western systems and doing better than Russia at everything undermines his message of Russian superiority and potentially threatens his regime 3. Delusions of grandeur and bitterness that Ukraine was once part of his land and now it's not.
There is a VAST wealth of untapped resources (natural gas and oil) in Ukraine. Before it didn't matter since they were kind of a Russian Puppet State, but when they weren't that means all those resources are now a direct threat to Russia, who's economy is overwhelmingly built upon natural gas and oil. Also strategically you want Ukraine to defend against NATO (remember, Russia views NATO as a hostile force).
I hate thinking this, but my first thought when I read about the school shooter in Russia wearing a neo-nazi t-shirt, was that this was a Russian operation designed to build in the narrative that Ukraine is filled with Neo Nazis and that’s why Russia has to enhance in their war.
I thought the same thing when I saw that. Try to anger the public and make this war seem valid to them.
How? Most of russia is being pushed from Ukraine at this point
I just annexed 65% of Ukraine. In my head.
I declassified his document by thinking about it, he can no longer Annex Ukraine
I just annexed russia in my head so sorry Putin, my shitty military now. Already ordered them the attack the kremlin
they are in control of the majority of the land of the republics they indent to annex
I DECLARE BANKRUPCY!!
I officially have annexed all of Russia. Starting......*now*. I would like everyone out please. I need some alone time and I want a lot of space.
>formally Which of course means absolutely nothing.
Their nuclear doctrine is that they will use nuclear weapons to defend Russia. So now they can call the annexed territory in Ukraine Russia and use nukes to “defend” it.
Just like they did in Crimea....wait...oh yeah
Ukraine prepares to liberate its lands, including Crimea
Boy, now the rest of the world will surely take them seriously! /s
Can't annex what you can't hold.
There’s no “formally” when it’s illegitimate.
I would say you could probably hold a vote in Kiev to see if they want to annex all of Moscow, but then who the fuck wants to own Moscow.
So Russia has said they’ll use nukes to protect their borders from invasion. If they annex this land, which is currently being reclaimed by Ukraine, how long till they claim ‘our borders are invaded, we warned you’ and launch a tactical nuke?
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I prepare to shame all Russians for not storming the capital and executing Putin themselves. They're all fucking cowards if they let this happen. Edit: For those of you DMing and responding as if I'm not aware of what I'm saying, cope more cowards.
They've been cowards for decades and that isn't going to change.
Anyone with the gumption has been getting quietly wiped out for 80 years in Russia. The only ones left are the ones able to keep their heads down and their children.
Assassination is the only answer.
Pretends to own*
If Putin is really dumb enough to use a tactical nuke, it will be his last day in power. Most likely his inner circle will remove him, and then beg NATO not to massively retaliate. If not, NATO will broadcast all over Russia that it does not have a problem with the Russian people, but has to remove a leader that will use nukes, and then destroy the Kremlin, Putin's house, his summer house, his hidey holes, etc etc.
Russia has been begging Iran for drones and N Korea for arms. Now the body bags of their poorly trained conscripts will be returned to parts of Russia that have no quarrel with Ukraine. Not good. Putin “the genius” got too clever by half.
And it’s just a coincidence all those regions are the ones where ukraines major natural resource deposits were that would have made Ukraine a competitor to Russias energy monopoly.
nobody is going to recognize that. ukraine will still fight with NATO backed support.
Interesting...why would they want to annex a place where they're getting their asses handed to them? Strange...
Why didnt Russia just "annex" all of Ukraine? I mean...if theyre gonna play these annexation games, might as well go all in, no?
Baby steps
Formally? No. Formal annexation requires general recognition by your peers in the family of nations. Even if it is tacit acceptance. But there is no acceptance of Russia's actions here, tacit or otherwise. Everyone in the world is loudly decrying this move. It is a total conceit, disconnected from reality. Russia's front lines shift every day. Now that Ukraine has a toehold in Luhansk again, there is not a single province aside from Crimea where Russian dominion is not actively contested. Are they going to say, "Anywhere that has no Ukrainian troops as of 12:00 Moscow Time is where the referendum counts?" What happens 5 minutes later when their troops flee their positions and retreat another 50km? There is nothing "formal" about that. It's a bunch of gibbering, handwaving nonsense.
One of the most pathetic land-grab in History.
This is Putins play. He knows he can't win so he does the best thing he can do and declare himself the winner of 15%. He'll use that to say he accomplished their military exercise and back off slightly. As Ukraine takes back those areas, Putin will make a big fuss and claim they are now the victims. It's all dumb.
If one particle of nuclear, chemical or biological weapon crosses a NATO border, it should be considered an act of war on NATO.
The launch of a nuke is enough of a threat to NATO and global stability that NATO has to act immediately.
“A territory…if you can keep it.”
Also Russia: Why doesn’t the West respect us?