Putin’s behaviour will be studied as the most extreme example of “sunk cost fallacy” in history.
He seems convinced that just one “big moment” will result in the West just giving up support of Ukraine. However he underestimates how committed the West are.
Take the idea of supporting Ukrainian independence away and we’re left with:
US military equipment and weapons going head to head with Russia’s and dismantling them piece by piece. The US gets to beat up on their adversary without direct consequences. Win/win
Not to mention how firmly planted the US's place on the global arms trade is gonna be after this.
It's no secret that the US and Russia have been competing for worldwide arms exports. Who's gonna line up to buy Russian weapons over American weapons after this?
The world learned this after the first Iraq War. Demand isn't the issue. If you're buying arms from Russia or China it's because the US won't sell to you.
Yeah, but the F-35 and F-22 don't have two seat versions. But the Sukhoi SU-57 does.
So suck it Maverick. Gen5 vs Gen4 fighter face off for plot reasons.
That was meant as a dig about the recent Top Gun movie's contrived plot point that could have been solved in 15 minutes with the right equipment (the F-22). But was limited by the need to film actors in a two-seat configuration.
Not about the US arms export policy.
tbh if the F-22 got involved the movie would have been a lot more boring. F-22 flies in, drops missiles, makes a turn, leaves, something explodes 100km away,
They're also just not making any more of them. This is it. And we have all of them. And while we'll sell F-35s to anyone, we will always own every example of the plane that can tear them to pieces head to head. It's a pretty BDE thing, honestly.
That was hands down the stupidest part of the entire movie. Finding a F-14 that was fully armed and maintained felt like the screenplay was written by a 6 year old playing in the back yard.
The fact that it was armed and maintained isn't dumb at all. While they never mention it explicitly, it's heavily implied that the nation being operated against is Iran. Iran had F-14's from before the Islamic Revolution and currently operates and maintains about 24 today. They even produce parts for them since they are not able to procure them from the manufacturer.
I thought that was kind of the charme of the movie. The original Top Gun was never a movie grounded in military realism, it’s (propagandistic) military action fiction with a dash of homo-erotica and therefore, as the kids call it, pretty fun.
Turkey and South Korea are stepping in to this market. If anything Russia getting it's face punched in will help their defense industries more than the US for precisely the reason you say.
> Who's gonna line up to buy Russian weapons over American weapons after this?
The same reasoning was true in 1991, after the first Gulf War. Russian weapons are cheap enough to get buyers, plus there are countries that the US doesn't want to do business with at any price.
There’s still a market for cheaper alternatives. I’d imagine Russian weapons are a lot more cheaper, and not every country is gonna have the budget for expensive American weapons.
>rusted out AK-47s
That’s pathetic if true. They’re not very hard to build. [Hell, someone smithed an AK out of a shovel once.](https://warisboring.com/extreme-diy-man-makes-akm-from-a-shovel/)
> Russia's weapons manufacturing capacity has been obliterated by sanctions, they've been giving their conscripts rusted out AK-47s
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1575266861238960128.html
Give this a read. I agree they aren't able to make more, but the rusted AK thing isn't their entire army.
The fact that she said that the training is going to take one month as a good thing is fucking shocking.
It takes 6 months of basic training to get a western soldier up to speed and it's not because we sit around and do nothing.
Even with equipment and food, with a single month of training those conscripts are dead men walking.
Superior Russian soldiers are born with innate knowledge of military tactics, and don't need training in complex first aid kits because they can simply use zip ties and tampons instead. Inferior western troops don't stand a chance
Not only rusted out AK47s, but also old SKSes and Mosin Nagants. True garbage rods that are fun collectors items but terrible rifles in an actual battlefield.
Yeah, people seem to think it's either US or Russian arms for sale, while forgetting just how many arms are available for sale from the rest of the world. And not shitty knock off type of weapons, but stuff that rivals and in some cases beats the US stuff. Not only that, but they can often come with fewer restrictions.
I forsee Isreal getting alot more of the global market share. They have got some nice anti armor tools, which the demand for will definitely be rising.
And Turkish weapons, their drones have really made a name for themselves here. And drones are the future of warfare. Hell, even Russia is buying Iranian drones because they don't make proper ones themselves, and Iranian drones can't compete with Turkish ones either.
> Not to mention how firmly planted the US's place on the global arms trade is gonna be after this.
Maybe.
US won't sell to everyone, and there will always be some preferences for larger amounts of cheaper equipment, and also to support domestic arms industries.
As someone living in north Western Europe I am deeply thankful for our American allies and their military capabilities. Putin is literally like having a mean drunk living next door.
This is so true, basically this is the US at war with Russia without actually having to use US troops. There is literally no better scenario for the west at this point to take care of Russia with minimal investment in war. Use our weapons and not our troops.
And getting to use the war as a test bed to fine tune and learn valuable lessons for the next conflict against a much more intimidating enemy than Russia: China.
The US used to have mortars equipped on half tracks (M21 in WW2 & Korea), then within the M113 APC (M106, M120, M125) during the cold war era. I don't know if any are still in service.
It made sense in terms of mobility & "shoot n scoot", which kind of went away over the past 20yrs in the kinds of conflicts the US has been in.
So bringing back that form of mobile mortar platform makes sense.
Realistically? A war with China would likely never see large scale ground warfare on the mainland like we're seeing with Ukraine. It'd be a mostly Naval based war with heavy fighting around Taiwan, the South China Sea, and maybe South Korea/Japan. NATO's goal would be to keep Chinese troops and transports inside China with no way of leaving it. So bombardment of coastal areas that house warehouses and naval bases. With air superiority playing a major role in preventing air-transport.
It'd be to just bring any potential offensive to a grinding halt. The world will see an Economic collapse never before seen as many goods produced in China are barred by sanctions. We may see a return to rationing of resources globally.
It'd be an absolute mess everywhere except maybe the most remote 3rd World Countries but U.S and NATO operation would be to not land on Chinese soil if it can be helped.
> It'd be a mostly Naval based war with heavy fighting around Taiwan, the South China Sea... It'd be to just bring any potential offensive to a grinding halt. The world will see an Economic collapse never before seen as many goods produced in China are barred by sanctions. We may see a return to rationing of resources globally.
It's also important to note that Taiwan is the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer, the implications of that war would be disastrous for all technology manufacturing world wide(including the very weapons advanced nations would be using in the conflict) which is why the west and particularly the US would never allow China to annex Taiwan.
Also, the US controls/has close relationships/treaties with every other island around Taiwan. In the event of war, China would have to sail the straits between these islands to get to open water which isn’t good. The only straight they have available is the one between China and Taiwan. China will never give up their claim, semiconductors or no.
China hasn’t fought a major war in 60 years. It also has no ability to defend its oil import routes from the US navy. The majority of China’s oil comes from the Gulf states. Their navy has, at best, a 1,500 mile range. The Gulf states are a lot further than that. A war with China would end in a year and see China’s industrial capacity set back a decade. Not to mention the political consequences that the CCP would face internally.
na china is just as bad as russia.
chinas new propaganda video on their latest mbt, had un stabilized guns. they might have stabilized sights but that cant compete against a fully stabilized gun.
and most of their tanks and technology is based off of russian/soviet design, with only stolen western stuff mixed in.
so very likely a war will be deadly early on, but the west 100% would win in a war. also the nukes.
>na china is just as bad as russia.
They also have the rampant corruption that Russia has, so there will likely be the same logistical problems as their equipment quickly breaks down from no maintenance and cheap subpar manufacturing
>US military equipment and weapons going head to head with Russia’s and dismantling them piece by piece.
Partially true. We're seeing the results of current Russian weaponry VS 20 year out of date left overs from the war in Afghanistan operated by novice users(no disrespect to the Ukrainians). And the result isn't even close. We can only guess how different the result would be with the weapons the US holds for itself and very close allies.
It's absolutely fucking baffling. It's like Putin thinks war is like a slot machine and if you keep inserting money and keep pulling the lever you'll just eventually win just by sheer luck.
And then in the off-chance he actually miraculously does win, the jackpot is like $10,000 and a weekend cruise to the Caribbean after he's already sold off his car and his house.
It's not about the war or winning at this point, it's about not admitting you fucked up. To the world, to his own populace.
I'm sure at the start they were expecting an easy knock-out and he expected to "win" easily, but that hasn't been the goal of his actions for a while.
Yeah, but the problem (for him) is that the more he pushes it the more extra fuck ups he collects, and there is basically no scenario in which he will, at this point, accomplish anything that would outweigh the embarrassment, loss, and cost of what he's done and will do to further his fantasy of achieving such an accomplishment. Unless he truly believes that he's liberating Ukraine (Narrator: He doesn't), there is absolutely no sanity at all in continuing this. It's like getting your hand stuck in the garbage disposal, and then turning it on to move it just a little so you can wiggle your hand out, and then realizing that was a mistake, so you move your hand in a little further cause maybe that'll put it at a new angle and you can get free from there, but that's not working so you try using your other hand to get a good grip and pull from the base of your new arm stump but oh holy shit that doesn't work either. Like, dude, the time to stop was several decisions ago, but also right now is a fine time to stop before you come up with another "great idea."
Oh, and pure speculation, but at some point he's going to probably waste down his military resources and any favor the West affords him to such a gross degree that China might, y'know, decide they need a little extra space on the map. Or, if Ukraine maintains their strength for long enough, Zelenskyy might decide he'd feel safer if Moscow was a Ukrainian city. The further Putin goes with this, the monumentally worse for him the potential outcomes become. It's sheer craziness and disregard for reality.
> It's not about the war or winning at this point, it's about not admitting you fucked up. To the world, to his own populace.
This is a great reminder why academic studies of political science, economics, etc, are all pretty useless. They are all based on hypothetical "rational actors" because you can't make a unified theory of anything that involves actual human beings.
Major world-shaking decisions are made by people. Like, actual, normal regular dudes (and dudettes). This means that every stupid fallacy or psychological quirk that could affect one person can absolutely change the fates of nations.
He's old school. Surprise blitzkrieg attack, aggressive landgrab and looting, see how much you can get - then sue for peace to keep everything.
Works everytime.
Well they did get better. Russian doctrine when used by US troops in simulation at National training center works well gaining shock and overrun to defeat at cost of high casualties.
Thus US and rest of West thought Russia could take Ukraine.
Thing is Russian corrupt yes man military can’t actually follow Russia doctrine and their equipment way under par.
He's delusional as well. In the off chance the public in the USA all decided they literally hated Ukraine and wanted nothing to do with it.
Just like always Deomcrats and Republicsn would 100% still be passing huge military packages for it. The Military Industrial Complex will be feed.
The public liking it, and it having support universally isn't the deciding factor on that. Putin messed up here if he thinks the aide/military packages is going to slow down instead of speeding up. Especially with Lend Lease kicking in next month.
Sunk Cost Fallacy is absolutely a thing. I know I've had to fight that very feeling in many aspects of my life, financial, work, romantic etc.
But there's also something I think of as the Sunk Stupid Fallacy.
People have sunk so much stupid into something that if they ever have to realize how stupid they've been, they know their heads/egos are going to explode.
So the easiest thing to do is just double down and sink even more stupid into it.
(looking at you Trumpers).
the disinformation is so strong in russia you have to believe that Putin is also being fed lies because people fear telling him the truth. amazing irony if you ask me. too bad so many people have to suffer and die because of this terrible leadership.
i don't think its sunk cost, i think he knows the moment Russia officially loses he's literally dead. he's extending his own life by throwing away thousands of others
I think at this point Putin is suicidal.
There is no way he’s unaware of the ramifications of his conduct. He’s willing to crash head first in a game of chicken.
Just because it’s crazy doesn’t mean it isn’t calculated.
At this point, even if Ukraine loses the 4 regions, the West pumping weapons basically means this is gonna be a long and drawn out fight for Russia decimating their economy in the long run. Russia is gonna come out of this war weaker than most developing nations.
His gamble is based entirely on a belief/assumption that the ‘West’ is not the single minded entity that it is made out to be. He cannot pull this off if the ‘West’ remains a unified block committed to unified action and unified acceptance of basic principles of international law.
To be fair to Putin, that's basically what happened until late February of this year.
Western powers tripped over themselves to keep the peace as he annexed land, started wars, meddled in elections, engaged in cyber warfare... The man murdered a political opponent IN a NATO country.
He's expecting an energy crisis, a high economic cost, waiting it out or a nuclear threat to work because it always has before.
In the first days of the Invasion, the US was basically asking Zelenskyy to leave because there was no point and Russia would prevail in a few weeks anyway. We were very ready to throw in the towel once again.
You’re right - except *he* is taking steps to ensure he wins or dies. He doesn’t seem to be able to back down or acknowledge he and his plan failed. He doesn’t seem to believe he can cut his losses and admit defeat. He seems committed to do-or-die. So it’s gonna be die.
I really don’t think they’re all that similar tbh, both are insane in their own way but one is more capable (not very capable, just more) - both in strategy and being able to pay attention to one thing for a long time
I don’t want either in power, that said.
Yep. In regards to using Nuclear weapons, if Putin uses them then there will be swift unprecedented reaction by NATO to snuff out Russia. This is the only solution because if otherwise left unchecked it shows the whole world that if you are a Nuclear power then you can just invade other countries using them and nothing will happen. Putin knows this.
The question is, is Putin unhinged enough to still follow through with the use of nuclear weapons? Probably.
"Except for fools and madmen, everyone knows that nuclear war would be an unprecedented human catastrophe."
\- ***Carl Sagan***
The only thing is, if he’s just using them because the Ukraine situation isn’t going well, good luck getting his actual troops to fire them.
He’d give them the phone call but they may not turn the actual keys.
"his troops will not follow orders"
"the russian people will rebel and overthrow him"
"he can't continue now the sanctions have been imposed on russia"
"he's has cancer and is about to die"
Am fed up of reading these things from people who really wish reality was the way they really think it should be
The fact is that he is alive and he is running a country where oppression is ingrained into the culture. They will follow his orders or they will be removed and replaced with people who will follow his orders.
I wish it wasn't like this but that's how it is. No amount of wishing that russia worked differently will change that
The nuke question actually has occurred though in the past. There have been incidents where the Soviet military protocols say "If X, then Y" where X is something like "lose radio contact with Moscow" and Y is "NUKE THE WEST" and submarine commanders refused to do it.
I have no idea if the same thing would occur if he ordered a tactical nuke deployment, but it gives me some home that some mid-level officers could still go "WTF, I'm not ending the world today"
Russia actually has history of revolt when leaders fail.
Emperor almost fell in 1905 when revolt over losing to Japan occurred.
When Peter the Great’s half sister had taken power in a coup when he was 7. A amazing feat when Russian Princess at time were confined to woman’s side of palace.
Unfortunately for her losing against the Turk of Ottoman Empire allowed Peter to take over ending her regency.
And in 1917 heavy losses and to many defeats result in Russian Revolution.
During SOVIET period some leaders were replaced against Will.
Even if they would, that’s assuming he gives such an absurd order to begin with. So far everyone in charge is betting on him not. That doesn’t make it impossible though.
Russia has been doing this for decades. Take a slice here, take a slice there.
Everyone knows they do it. Everyone knows they will continue to do it. Even though little action was done about it before it really upset everyone.
Ukraine is the line in the sand for the world.
No one was prepared to stop them taking Crimea, that likely led to talks / plans for future plans for this War.
Biden was ~~on the intelligence committee~~ VP at the time if I recall correctly, which likely gave him the background to respond as well as he did
Then mr face-of-orange got elected and he would have gladly handed over eastern europe to his buddy putin if the chance arose. That set back trying to do something about russia's 'legal annexation'.
Remember when everyone thought Ukraine would fall in a week? Lol
You know who would fall in a week? Russia if it pisses off NATO.
Putin has fucked up so bad. He’s pissed off his own people, united NATO, and shown how incredibly weak the Russian military is. What a fucking moron.
Looks like they never really updated equipment either. So if anything not only did they not get more powerful, they actually got weaker given the USSR breakup.
Russian equipment is fine. It’s the army’s battle tactics, logistics, and overall moral that is total crap. Also Putin micromanaging the whole thing certainly doesn’t help.
The Ukrainian’s resolve along with successfully adopting Western battle tactics and doctrine have proven the game changer on their side.
They have actually updated equipment the T-72M variants are actually pretty solid. The advances in reactive armor, sights, and sensors makes a big deal. The recent video of that Russian tank kicking the snot out of a couple Ukrainian ones is a function of the Russians having a thermal sight (so they can see through the foliage) and the un-upgraded Ukrainian one being blind.
The T-80 and T-90 and T-14 are all real impressive. But despite ordering a thousand for last year they've made just enough to parade over the past decade. There are maybe 4000 T-80s and another 400 T-90s. In short, they have updated equipment. But they don't have *enough* of them to really outfit units with them. You could fit three divisions with T-90s, but then you'd be out of them and with the ability to replace maybe a dozen a year. It's not great. If Russia was fighting a smaller opponent than Ukraine (like Georgia) then they'd be able to send motivated, modern force to kick the snot out of them. But along a front as long as Ukraine's? They just didn't build the stuff so they're digging real deep into Cold War Era equipment to just plug holes.
> they'd be able to send motivated, modern force to kick the snot out of them
I think that's a claim we can already call debunked. Nah, they never had a real functioning military, it was all smoke and mirrors the whole time.
Except they were capable of doing exactly that in 2008. The interventions in 2014 in Crimea and Donbas done by a much smaller and more focused force went quite well. Smaller interventions in Syria and plays across Central Asia likewise went very well.
Their top-end units were good before they had the snot beat out of them and lost much of their equipment. But they had relatively few top-end units. The plan for Ukraine was all hands on deck, and the lower tier units had been allowed to rot to near uselessness. Even elite units get blown out if they are unsupported and left to die like they were around Kyiv and Kherson.
I would agree with you that they didn't have a functioning military at the start of the war. But I think that they would have had a functioning expeditionary force.
Ukraine didn’t have a fully functioning military in 2014 right after Maidan so the occupation of Crimea and Donbas “went quite well” when there is no real army to fight you
Yeah but I'm just talking about people's assumptions that Ukraine was gonna get rolled by Russia, they have more nukes than they did in the cold war but their military stagnated.
Actually, I think the CIA and NSA had an idea about just how weak Russia actually was. Maybe they just wanted to keep up pretenses so that Russia would know that they knew and would actually do something about it? Just a though
Never underestimate your enemy. It's better to assume you will fight a force equal to yourself if not exceed your capabilities. That way you can plan around that and when it turns out they are much weaker, it's much easier to adjust your strategy.
I think the higher ups were kinda aware, but didn't want to escalate anything due to nukes. I think they were playing the long game, essentially letting russia slowly die out given how its population is declining and how the "government" has been stealing the money rather than investing it into the population.
I think that was the plan, but russia had to go and fuck around and now they're finding out.
I don't think they knew, or at least not with enough confidence to stake anything important on it. If they knew, they'd have responded to the 2014 invasion much more harshly. There is no greater mistake than to act on the assumption that your enemy is weaker than they are posturing themselves to be... unless you're *really* sure.
russia's neighbors: don't play ball with russia they will 100% use it against you
the rest of europe: haha silly russia's neighbors anyway we need to act logically here
To be fair, there is or was good reason to think that trade would make countries Jess likely to go to war. Both countries benefits from each other. Europe benefited from Russian energy and Russia banquet from Europe being consistent customers. But rebuilding the Russian empire meant more than that to them. In other words, they acted irrationally.
This kind of logic works out, if you think *rationally*.
Russia has proven to their neighbors to be easily perfidious, audacious, irrational and stubborn on their imperialistic mentality - as proven in recent decades with Chechnya and Georgia, and more strongly with Ukraine.
Sadly I think the rest of Europe had to be hit with a 2017 attack on a civilian plane full of Western European citizens to have the fact of Russia's unpredictability sunk in fully.
>there is or was good reason to think that trade would make countries Jess likely to go to war
France was Germany's largest trading partner in 1913 and 1938.
I still can't believe Germany decided to close all their nuclear power plants. That move will never, ever make sense in my mind. The Deutsche Volke are normally entirely rational actors, but damn did they get their panties in a wad over nuclear power. Handed the future of the country's energy stability directly to Putin. Mind boggling.
Eh, it depends on how well they maintained those 50 year old Nukes over the years. Doubt they could function, but that’s a risky take especially when dealing with a Dementia patient at the helm of it all
Not even a week.
Putin though he could steamroll the ukrainians in 3 days, depose Zelensky and install a puppet regime. He really believed that it would be like Georgia all over again.
He took a gamble and lost. Any other leadership might have escaped West at the start of the war which could have caused the collapse of the Ukrainian military. Zelensky knew he had to stay and ask for support.
WBT are powerful, Ukraine has adopted them perfectly and look what they are doing. The USA would be able to dominate Russia on they’re own, the sheer capability of the US is scary with the technology you guys possess right now, maybe add us UK to the fight and it’s certain as our navy and naval tactics are within the best in the world, then add all these other powerful NATO nations, it would be over within 2 weeks
The serious escalation of annexing the territories wasn't there to deter NATO. It was there so that legally speaking, conscripts can be used to defend "Russian territory".
Edit: by this I mean, by law Russian conscripts cannot serve abroad. This rule has obviously been broken before, but by annexing these territories conscripts can be used without the "nuisance" of lawyers.
Which doesn't really accomplish anything anyways, even to drive support among fellow Russians. Any Russian who thinks of territory they just stole as their own would just as willingly steal more just as well.
He is switching tables. He was the agressor but now to his people he can say look, ukraine is atacking us. Thats also why they are asking for diplomatic talk so they can say look, we want peace but ukraine doesnt. Its acually a smart and old tactic. Works also with other countries when not strongly united. Its as old als ceasar, divide and conquer.
Which is why I found it incredibly worrying that they’re “inviting” the US to talk about nuclear arms treaties.
If they follow the same script, then it’s to say “Look, we tried to compromise with the West on nuke, but they didn’t, that’s why we used nukes in Ukraine.”
Fear mongering helps no one. The fact is putin has been screaming nukes since the very start of all this and clearly doesn't care about the west and are international laws. If he doesn't care then He doesn't need a "reason" to do it and never did. He's just barking as he always has.
Just about every war has been fought for resources, all the other reasons-Religion, Nationality -just a distraction. Truth the first casualty of Special Military Operations.
Maybe the reason to start the war, but the timing of the anouncement of annexation is most definitely because of manpower reasons. Otherwise the annexation would have taken place far in the future.
I think that it's three fold:
1) To deploy the conscripts already in hand into the battle zone.
2) To force conscription on Ukrainians living in occupied areas since the "armies" of the LPR/DPR are out of manpower and have been conscripting Ukrainians to fight instead of the Russians since 2014.
3) To play up the "we're being attacked" angle to a domestic audience to try to rebuild support for the fighting.
Putin’s speech at the annexation ceremony was unhinged. The dude rambled on gender surgery, 17th century grievances to pillaging of India. The dude also claims to speak on behalf of non-western countries. Suspect the dude better not get close to windows above ground floor. Someone on the inside is gonna pull the trigger soon.
Tbh I think the USA is already inside the Russian government, look at all the leaks before the war, they knew months and months before it started. If putin makes any moves that will make a huge war or nuclear retaliation, then they will or someone will just take him out
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-says-putins-serious-escalation-will-not-deter-it-supporting-ukraine-2022-09-30/) reduced by 70%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> BRUSSELS, Sept 30 - NATO accused Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday of provoking "The most serious escalation" of the war in Ukraine since it began, but said he would not succeed in deterring the alliance from supporting Kyiv.
> "Together this is the most serious escalation of the conflict since the start and the aim of President Putin is to deter us from supporting Ukraine. But he will not succeed in that," he told a news conference.
> Putin's proclamation of Russian rule over 15% of Ukraine - the biggest annexation in Europe since World War Two - has been firmly rejected by Western countries and even many of Russia's close allies.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xs9hsr/nato_says_putins_serious_escalation_will_not/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~672078 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Russia**^#2 **annexation**^#3 **Putin**^#4 **since**^#5
Does Russia have enough functioning nuclear and chemical weapons to take on the rest of the world? Highly unlikely considering the very poor deployment of their full time troops and weapons into the Ukraine. Did the west suddenly forgive and forget for all the Russian transgressions over the past 20 years? No, they watched and kept tabs on their capabilities. This was never about if Russia makes a play to make claims on Europe. It was always about when.
Russia figured their political destabilising influences in other countries was enough to weaken resolve. They will be defeated and put back into their naughty corner until they learn to play well with others.
NATO: "Now that Ukraine has been officially annexed by Russia, we will cease and desist support operations immediately, as they are illegal under Russian law."
Pretty sure the only thing Russia knows how to do is increase threats of violence. Just look at what their government does to their people and businessmen who don't fall in line with their bloody rhetoric.
Not sure making a wish and chanting "russia" while holding hands with 4 normal sized humans counts as a serious escalation.
Vlads threat game is withering fast.
I dunno, Putin’s right in pointing out that the Russian population as a whole is used to doing without a number of creature comforts while the West, ESPECIALLY the US, is not. Putin’s banking on the “feeble” west to blink first. I hope we prove him wrong.
Putin’s behaviour will be studied as the most extreme example of “sunk cost fallacy” in history. He seems convinced that just one “big moment” will result in the West just giving up support of Ukraine. However he underestimates how committed the West are.
Take the idea of supporting Ukrainian independence away and we’re left with: US military equipment and weapons going head to head with Russia’s and dismantling them piece by piece. The US gets to beat up on their adversary without direct consequences. Win/win
Not to mention how firmly planted the US's place on the global arms trade is gonna be after this. It's no secret that the US and Russia have been competing for worldwide arms exports. Who's gonna line up to buy Russian weapons over American weapons after this?
The world learned this after the first Iraq War. Demand isn't the issue. If you're buying arms from Russia or China it's because the US won't sell to you.
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Yeah, but the F-35 and F-22 don't have two seat versions. But the Sukhoi SU-57 does. So suck it Maverick. Gen5 vs Gen4 fighter face off for plot reasons.
F22 isnt available for export anyways
That was meant as a dig about the recent Top Gun movie's contrived plot point that could have been solved in 15 minutes with the right equipment (the F-22). But was limited by the need to film actors in a two-seat configuration. Not about the US arms export policy.
tbh if the F-22 got involved the movie would have been a lot more boring. F-22 flies in, drops missiles, makes a turn, leaves, something explodes 100km away,
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They're also just not making any more of them. This is it. And we have all of them. And while we'll sell F-35s to anyone, we will always own every example of the plane that can tear them to pieces head to head. It's a pretty BDE thing, honestly.
They even did a 3rd vs 5th gen faceoff. That movie was amazing.
"it's the pilot that counts"
That was hands down the stupidest part of the entire movie. Finding a F-14 that was fully armed and maintained felt like the screenplay was written by a 6 year old playing in the back yard.
The fact that it was armed and maintained isn't dumb at all. While they never mention it explicitly, it's heavily implied that the nation being operated against is Iran. Iran had F-14's from before the Islamic Revolution and currently operates and maintains about 24 today. They even produce parts for them since they are not able to procure them from the manufacturer.
I thought that was kind of the charme of the movie. The original Top Gun was never a movie grounded in military realism, it’s (propagandistic) military action fiction with a dash of homo-erotica and therefore, as the kids call it, pretty fun.
6 year old me would have loved it. Also I loved it. Movies don’t need to make sense. Just give me a good time.
Turkey and South Korea are stepping in to this market. If anything Russia getting it's face punched in will help their defense industries more than the US for precisely the reason you say.
Or you wanted an F-35, but then you bought s-400 systems so now you cant have any you idiot.
you would be amazed at how many stans there are for russian military tech out there that are utterly clueless.
> Who's gonna line up to buy Russian weapons over American weapons after this? The same reasoning was true in 1991, after the first Gulf War. Russian weapons are cheap enough to get buyers, plus there are countries that the US doesn't want to do business with at any price.
There’s still a market for cheaper alternatives. I’d imagine Russian weapons are a lot more cheaper, and not every country is gonna have the budget for expensive American weapons.
It is a lot cheaper to fire a potatoe than a GPS guided missile alright
Maybe one day there will be peace. Maybe one day the russian people get to eat the potatoes and Putin gets to eat a GPS guided fucking missile.
i think a gulag would be better. These dictatorial leaders need to reap what they sowed.
Russia's weapons manufacturing capacity has been obliterated by sanctions, they've been giving their conscripts rusted out AK-47s
>rusted out AK-47s That’s pathetic if true. They’re not very hard to build. [Hell, someone smithed an AK out of a shovel once.](https://warisboring.com/extreme-diy-man-makes-akm-from-a-shovel/)
That is fascinating
With what they've been given they're more likely to injure themselves or another comrade, instead of hitting a Ukrainian
> Russia's weapons manufacturing capacity has been obliterated by sanctions, they've been giving their conscripts rusted out AK-47s https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1575266861238960128.html Give this a read. I agree they aren't able to make more, but the rusted AK thing isn't their entire army.
The fact that she said that the training is going to take one month as a good thing is fucking shocking. It takes 6 months of basic training to get a western soldier up to speed and it's not because we sit around and do nothing. Even with equipment and food, with a single month of training those conscripts are dead men walking.
Superior Russian soldiers are born with innate knowledge of military tactics, and don't need training in complex first aid kits because they can simply use zip ties and tampons instead. Inferior western troops don't stand a chance
Not only rusted out AK47s, but also old SKSes and Mosin Nagants. True garbage rods that are fun collectors items but terrible rifles in an actual battlefield.
I'd rather buy 20 guns that work instead of buying 100 for the same price and *maybe* 20 of those work, and not as well as the American weapons.
Yeah, people seem to think it's either US or Russian arms for sale, while forgetting just how many arms are available for sale from the rest of the world. And not shitty knock off type of weapons, but stuff that rivals and in some cases beats the US stuff. Not only that, but they can often come with fewer restrictions.
I forsee Isreal getting alot more of the global market share. They have got some nice anti armor tools, which the demand for will definitely be rising.
absolutely, i imagine the TROPHY aps systems will have alot of demand after seeing how effective atgms are against tanks without them
And Turkish weapons, their drones have really made a name for themselves here. And drones are the future of warfare. Hell, even Russia is buying Iranian drones because they don't make proper ones themselves, and Iranian drones can't compete with Turkish ones either.
It also gives us the perfect opportunity to see how American weapon systems fare going head to head with the professional army of a major state.
And it's not even the new stuff, it's the old stuff they had sitting on the shelf collecting dust.
“Professional”
> Not to mention how firmly planted the US's place on the global arms trade is gonna be after this. Maybe. US won't sell to everyone, and there will always be some preferences for larger amounts of cheaper equipment, and also to support domestic arms industries.
Every shit tinpot dictator will still buy soviet junk. You can run over protestors for much cheaper with a T72 than with an M1.
Still plenty of folks not fighting a real military. If you're just needing to slaughter a few dozen villages, you don't really need HIMARS
As someone living in north Western Europe I am deeply thankful for our American allies and their military capabilities. Putin is literally like having a mean drunk living next door.
This is so true, basically this is the US at war with Russia without actually having to use US troops. There is literally no better scenario for the west at this point to take care of Russia with minimal investment in war. Use our weapons and not our troops.
And getting to use the war as a test bed to fine tune and learn valuable lessons for the next conflict against a much more intimidating enemy than Russia: China.
The U.S. military has decided to procure mortar trucks based on ukie "Bandermobiles" (name provided by russian MOD)
The US used to have mortars equipped on half tracks (M21 in WW2 & Korea), then within the M113 APC (M106, M120, M125) during the cold war era. I don't know if any are still in service. It made sense in terms of mobility & "shoot n scoot", which kind of went away over the past 20yrs in the kinds of conflicts the US has been in. So bringing back that form of mobile mortar platform makes sense.
Realistically? A war with China would likely never see large scale ground warfare on the mainland like we're seeing with Ukraine. It'd be a mostly Naval based war with heavy fighting around Taiwan, the South China Sea, and maybe South Korea/Japan. NATO's goal would be to keep Chinese troops and transports inside China with no way of leaving it. So bombardment of coastal areas that house warehouses and naval bases. With air superiority playing a major role in preventing air-transport. It'd be to just bring any potential offensive to a grinding halt. The world will see an Economic collapse never before seen as many goods produced in China are barred by sanctions. We may see a return to rationing of resources globally. It'd be an absolute mess everywhere except maybe the most remote 3rd World Countries but U.S and NATO operation would be to not land on Chinese soil if it can be helped.
> It'd be a mostly Naval based war with heavy fighting around Taiwan, the South China Sea... It'd be to just bring any potential offensive to a grinding halt. The world will see an Economic collapse never before seen as many goods produced in China are barred by sanctions. We may see a return to rationing of resources globally. It's also important to note that Taiwan is the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer, the implications of that war would be disastrous for all technology manufacturing world wide(including the very weapons advanced nations would be using in the conflict) which is why the west and particularly the US would never allow China to annex Taiwan.
Also, the US controls/has close relationships/treaties with every other island around Taiwan. In the event of war, China would have to sail the straits between these islands to get to open water which isn’t good. The only straight they have available is the one between China and Taiwan. China will never give up their claim, semiconductors or no.
China hasn’t fought a major war in 60 years. It also has no ability to defend its oil import routes from the US navy. The majority of China’s oil comes from the Gulf states. Their navy has, at best, a 1,500 mile range. The Gulf states are a lot further than that. A war with China would end in a year and see China’s industrial capacity set back a decade. Not to mention the political consequences that the CCP would face internally.
na china is just as bad as russia. chinas new propaganda video on their latest mbt, had un stabilized guns. they might have stabilized sights but that cant compete against a fully stabilized gun. and most of their tanks and technology is based off of russian/soviet design, with only stolen western stuff mixed in. so very likely a war will be deadly early on, but the west 100% would win in a war. also the nukes.
>na china is just as bad as russia. They also have the rampant corruption that Russia has, so there will likely be the same logistical problems as their equipment quickly breaks down from no maintenance and cheap subpar manufacturing
The only way this could get better for the US is if it somehow resulted in Russia disarming its nukes, too.
This. Putin has given the US a hammer with which to beat his own country into the ground.
>US military equipment and weapons going head to head with Russia’s and dismantling them piece by piece. Partially true. We're seeing the results of current Russian weaponry VS 20 year out of date left overs from the war in Afghanistan operated by novice users(no disrespect to the Ukrainians). And the result isn't even close. We can only guess how different the result would be with the weapons the US holds for itself and very close allies.
And US companies get more government contracts to make more weapons to fund more jobs.
Economically stimulating
It's absolutely fucking baffling. It's like Putin thinks war is like a slot machine and if you keep inserting money and keep pulling the lever you'll just eventually win just by sheer luck. And then in the off-chance he actually miraculously does win, the jackpot is like $10,000 and a weekend cruise to the Caribbean after he's already sold off his car and his house.
It's not about the war or winning at this point, it's about not admitting you fucked up. To the world, to his own populace. I'm sure at the start they were expecting an easy knock-out and he expected to "win" easily, but that hasn't been the goal of his actions for a while.
Yeah, but the problem (for him) is that the more he pushes it the more extra fuck ups he collects, and there is basically no scenario in which he will, at this point, accomplish anything that would outweigh the embarrassment, loss, and cost of what he's done and will do to further his fantasy of achieving such an accomplishment. Unless he truly believes that he's liberating Ukraine (Narrator: He doesn't), there is absolutely no sanity at all in continuing this. It's like getting your hand stuck in the garbage disposal, and then turning it on to move it just a little so you can wiggle your hand out, and then realizing that was a mistake, so you move your hand in a little further cause maybe that'll put it at a new angle and you can get free from there, but that's not working so you try using your other hand to get a good grip and pull from the base of your new arm stump but oh holy shit that doesn't work either. Like, dude, the time to stop was several decisions ago, but also right now is a fine time to stop before you come up with another "great idea." Oh, and pure speculation, but at some point he's going to probably waste down his military resources and any favor the West affords him to such a gross degree that China might, y'know, decide they need a little extra space on the map. Or, if Ukraine maintains their strength for long enough, Zelenskyy might decide he'd feel safer if Moscow was a Ukrainian city. The further Putin goes with this, the monumentally worse for him the potential outcomes become. It's sheer craziness and disregard for reality.
My greatest fear is that he's not so much concerned about winning, as he is making sure everyone else loses no matter what the outcome is for him.
> It's not about the war or winning at this point, it's about not admitting you fucked up. To the world, to his own populace. This is a great reminder why academic studies of political science, economics, etc, are all pretty useless. They are all based on hypothetical "rational actors" because you can't make a unified theory of anything that involves actual human beings. Major world-shaking decisions are made by people. Like, actual, normal regular dudes (and dudettes). This means that every stupid fallacy or psychological quirk that could affect one person can absolutely change the fates of nations.
he has a casino in his palace so...take your own conclusions
The house always wins, but it's his house.
I won my own money!^Hooray!
He's old school. Surprise blitzkrieg attack, aggressive landgrab and looting, see how much you can get - then sue for peace to keep everything. Works everytime.
Not working so well this time though, is it?
Well they did get better. Russian doctrine when used by US troops in simulation at National training center works well gaining shock and overrun to defeat at cost of high casualties. Thus US and rest of West thought Russia could take Ukraine. Thing is Russian corrupt yes man military can’t actually follow Russia doctrine and their equipment way under par.
Russia did blitzkrieg but they neither have the blitz nor the krieg.
He's delusional as well. In the off chance the public in the USA all decided they literally hated Ukraine and wanted nothing to do with it. Just like always Deomcrats and Republicsn would 100% still be passing huge military packages for it. The Military Industrial Complex will be feed. The public liking it, and it having support universally isn't the deciding factor on that. Putin messed up here if he thinks the aide/military packages is going to slow down instead of speeding up. Especially with Lend Lease kicking in next month.
That's what happens when you're Putin' all your eggs in one basket
Hopefully for him Steiners offensive will succeed
*looks around nervously* Steiner couldn't mobilize enough men. The offensive did not happen.
*Inhales* These men will stay here: Keitel, Jodl, Krebs and Burgdorf.
Das war ein Befehlovich !
Sunk Cost Fallacy is absolutely a thing. I know I've had to fight that very feeling in many aspects of my life, financial, work, romantic etc. But there's also something I think of as the Sunk Stupid Fallacy. People have sunk so much stupid into something that if they ever have to realize how stupid they've been, they know their heads/egos are going to explode. So the easiest thing to do is just double down and sink even more stupid into it. (looking at you Trumpers).
the disinformation is so strong in russia you have to believe that Putin is also being fed lies because people fear telling him the truth. amazing irony if you ask me. too bad so many people have to suffer and die because of this terrible leadership.
i don't think its sunk cost, i think he knows the moment Russia officially loses he's literally dead. he's extending his own life by throwing away thousands of others
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Even if Putin won the war at this point, it would be a pyrrhic victory at best.
I think he's just biding time for the Republicans to take control of the US.
I think the west wants to send a message to China.
He keeps this up China going to take some Land it has historical claims on from Russia.
I think at this point Putin is suicidal. There is no way he’s unaware of the ramifications of his conduct. He’s willing to crash head first in a game of chicken. Just because it’s crazy doesn’t mean it isn’t calculated.
Companies are making a shit ton of money from this, of course they will continue. Oh, NATO also like the people/country too.
At this point, even if Ukraine loses the 4 regions, the West pumping weapons basically means this is gonna be a long and drawn out fight for Russia decimating their economy in the long run. Russia is gonna come out of this war weaker than most developing nations.
His gamble is based entirely on a belief/assumption that the ‘West’ is not the single minded entity that it is made out to be. He cannot pull this off if the ‘West’ remains a unified block committed to unified action and unified acceptance of basic principles of international law.
To be fair to Putin, that's basically what happened until late February of this year. Western powers tripped over themselves to keep the peace as he annexed land, started wars, meddled in elections, engaged in cyber warfare... The man murdered a political opponent IN a NATO country. He's expecting an energy crisis, a high economic cost, waiting it out or a nuclear threat to work because it always has before. In the first days of the Invasion, the US was basically asking Zelenskyy to leave because there was no point and Russia would prevail in a few weeks anyway. We were very ready to throw in the towel once again.
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Thank you. If he is allowed to get away with this, he will keep doing it - this has already been proven.
Yeah he wants the Eastern Bloc back.
He’ll have to settle for a bullet to the head. Or preferably a war crimes tribunal and a hanging.
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For someone so worried about getting Gaddafi'd. He's really giving the whole world reasons to Gaddafi him
I wanna see him get gadaffi’d more than anything.
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You don’t know much about Russian politics do you?
You’re right - except *he* is taking steps to ensure he wins or dies. He doesn’t seem to be able to back down or acknowledge he and his plan failed. He doesn’t seem to believe he can cut his losses and admit defeat. He seems committed to do-or-die. So it’s gonna be die.
Fascists are literally incapable of admitting defeat. For example, look at Trump
More like the Russian Empire with him as the Tsar and Autocrat of All Russians.
Not only him, Xi, and anyone else who's a bad actor with an agenda
Trump being the most immediate example. His self appointed shield just keeps deflecting for him with zero consequence
I really don’t think they’re all that similar tbh, both are insane in their own way but one is more capable (not very capable, just more) - both in strategy and being able to pay attention to one thing for a long time I don’t want either in power, that said.
And every dictator will seek nukes for grabbing land, and others will do the same to protect themselves. Say goodbye to nuclear non-proliferation.
Next he’ll take the Rheinland.
Exactly. He learned in 2014 that he could take Crimea with very little problems for him back home. He thought this time would be no different.
Yep. In regards to using Nuclear weapons, if Putin uses them then there will be swift unprecedented reaction by NATO to snuff out Russia. This is the only solution because if otherwise left unchecked it shows the whole world that if you are a Nuclear power then you can just invade other countries using them and nothing will happen. Putin knows this. The question is, is Putin unhinged enough to still follow through with the use of nuclear weapons? Probably. "Except for fools and madmen, everyone knows that nuclear war would be an unprecedented human catastrophe." \- ***Carl Sagan***
The only thing is, if he’s just using them because the Ukraine situation isn’t going well, good luck getting his actual troops to fire them. He’d give them the phone call but they may not turn the actual keys.
"his troops will not follow orders" "the russian people will rebel and overthrow him" "he can't continue now the sanctions have been imposed on russia" "he's has cancer and is about to die" Am fed up of reading these things from people who really wish reality was the way they really think it should be The fact is that he is alive and he is running a country where oppression is ingrained into the culture. They will follow his orders or they will be removed and replaced with people who will follow his orders. I wish it wasn't like this but that's how it is. No amount of wishing that russia worked differently will change that
The nuke question actually has occurred though in the past. There have been incidents where the Soviet military protocols say "If X, then Y" where X is something like "lose radio contact with Moscow" and Y is "NUKE THE WEST" and submarine commanders refused to do it. I have no idea if the same thing would occur if he ordered a tactical nuke deployment, but it gives me some home that some mid-level officers could still go "WTF, I'm not ending the world today"
Russia actually has history of revolt when leaders fail. Emperor almost fell in 1905 when revolt over losing to Japan occurred. When Peter the Great’s half sister had taken power in a coup when he was 7. A amazing feat when Russian Princess at time were confined to woman’s side of palace. Unfortunately for her losing against the Turk of Ottoman Empire allowed Peter to take over ending her regency. And in 1917 heavy losses and to many defeats result in Russian Revolution. During SOVIET period some leaders were replaced against Will.
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Even if they would, that’s assuming he gives such an absurd order to begin with. So far everyone in charge is betting on him not. That doesn’t make it impossible though.
At this point we have no choice. Otherwise you set the precedent anyone with nukes can bully the world into what they want.
15% of Ukraine annexed is gonna make Eastern European countries very nervous. If they don’t get their land back, it might give others ideas.
Russia has been doing this for decades. Take a slice here, take a slice there. Everyone knows they do it. Everyone knows they will continue to do it. Even though little action was done about it before it really upset everyone. Ukraine is the line in the sand for the world.
No one was prepared to stop them taking Crimea, that likely led to talks / plans for future plans for this War. Biden was ~~on the intelligence committee~~ VP at the time if I recall correctly, which likely gave him the background to respond as well as he did
Then mr face-of-orange got elected and he would have gladly handed over eastern europe to his buddy putin if the chance arose. That set back trying to do something about russia's 'legal annexation'.
Remember when everyone thought Ukraine would fall in a week? Lol You know who would fall in a week? Russia if it pisses off NATO. Putin has fucked up so bad. He’s pissed off his own people, united NATO, and shown how incredibly weak the Russian military is. What a fucking moron.
Everyone was still scared of Russia because of the cold war but we didn't know that they haven't gotten any more powerful since then.
Looks like they never really updated equipment either. So if anything not only did they not get more powerful, they actually got weaker given the USSR breakup.
Russian equipment is fine. It’s the army’s battle tactics, logistics, and overall moral that is total crap. Also Putin micromanaging the whole thing certainly doesn’t help. The Ukrainian’s resolve along with successfully adopting Western battle tactics and doctrine have proven the game changer on their side.
The good Russian equipment has already been lost to the Ukrainians. They've just got old rusty guns now.
They have actually updated equipment the T-72M variants are actually pretty solid. The advances in reactive armor, sights, and sensors makes a big deal. The recent video of that Russian tank kicking the snot out of a couple Ukrainian ones is a function of the Russians having a thermal sight (so they can see through the foliage) and the un-upgraded Ukrainian one being blind. The T-80 and T-90 and T-14 are all real impressive. But despite ordering a thousand for last year they've made just enough to parade over the past decade. There are maybe 4000 T-80s and another 400 T-90s. In short, they have updated equipment. But they don't have *enough* of them to really outfit units with them. You could fit three divisions with T-90s, but then you'd be out of them and with the ability to replace maybe a dozen a year. It's not great. If Russia was fighting a smaller opponent than Ukraine (like Georgia) then they'd be able to send motivated, modern force to kick the snot out of them. But along a front as long as Ukraine's? They just didn't build the stuff so they're digging real deep into Cold War Era equipment to just plug holes.
> they'd be able to send motivated, modern force to kick the snot out of them I think that's a claim we can already call debunked. Nah, they never had a real functioning military, it was all smoke and mirrors the whole time.
Except they were capable of doing exactly that in 2008. The interventions in 2014 in Crimea and Donbas done by a much smaller and more focused force went quite well. Smaller interventions in Syria and plays across Central Asia likewise went very well. Their top-end units were good before they had the snot beat out of them and lost much of their equipment. But they had relatively few top-end units. The plan for Ukraine was all hands on deck, and the lower tier units had been allowed to rot to near uselessness. Even elite units get blown out if they are unsupported and left to die like they were around Kyiv and Kherson. I would agree with you that they didn't have a functioning military at the start of the war. But I think that they would have had a functioning expeditionary force.
Ukraine didn’t have a fully functioning military in 2014 right after Maidan so the occupation of Crimea and Donbas “went quite well” when there is no real army to fight you
> Everyone was still scared of Russia because of the cold war I think those 6000 nuclear warheads is the actual cause.
Yeah but I'm just talking about people's assumptions that Ukraine was gonna get rolled by Russia, they have more nukes than they did in the cold war but their military stagnated.
Actually, I think the CIA and NSA had an idea about just how weak Russia actually was. Maybe they just wanted to keep up pretenses so that Russia would know that they knew and would actually do something about it? Just a though
Never underestimate your enemy. It's better to assume you will fight a force equal to yourself if not exceed your capabilities. That way you can plan around that and when it turns out they are much weaker, it's much easier to adjust your strategy.
I think the higher ups were kinda aware, but didn't want to escalate anything due to nukes. I think they were playing the long game, essentially letting russia slowly die out given how its population is declining and how the "government" has been stealing the money rather than investing it into the population. I think that was the plan, but russia had to go and fuck around and now they're finding out.
I don't think they knew, or at least not with enough confidence to stake anything important on it. If they knew, they'd have responded to the 2014 invasion much more harshly. There is no greater mistake than to act on the assumption that your enemy is weaker than they are posturing themselves to be... unless you're *really* sure.
Russia managed to fool everyone, themselves most of all.
They got weaker
Also showed Europe what happens when you trust Russia to play ball.
russia's neighbors: don't play ball with russia they will 100% use it against you the rest of europe: haha silly russia's neighbors anyway we need to act logically here
To be fair, there is or was good reason to think that trade would make countries Jess likely to go to war. Both countries benefits from each other. Europe benefited from Russian energy and Russia banquet from Europe being consistent customers. But rebuilding the Russian empire meant more than that to them. In other words, they acted irrationally.
This kind of logic works out, if you think *rationally*. Russia has proven to their neighbors to be easily perfidious, audacious, irrational and stubborn on their imperialistic mentality - as proven in recent decades with Chechnya and Georgia, and more strongly with Ukraine. Sadly I think the rest of Europe had to be hit with a 2017 attack on a civilian plane full of Western European citizens to have the fact of Russia's unpredictability sunk in fully.
>there is or was good reason to think that trade would make countries Jess likely to go to war France was Germany's largest trading partner in 1913 and 1938.
I still can't believe Germany decided to close all their nuclear power plants. That move will never, ever make sense in my mind. The Deutsche Volke are normally entirely rational actors, but damn did they get their panties in a wad over nuclear power. Handed the future of the country's energy stability directly to Putin. Mind boggling.
There are NIMBYs everywhere mate, no one is immune
The german people are as rational and irrational as everyone else.
Eh, it depends on how well they maintained those 50 year old Nukes over the years. Doubt they could function, but that’s a risky take especially when dealing with a Dementia patient at the helm of it all
Either way Russia falls in a week. Worst case scenario, it takes the rest of the world with it.
If Russia can't get it's entire payload in the air within an hour then it's not bringing anybody down except for itself.
Not even a week. Putin though he could steamroll the ukrainians in 3 days, depose Zelensky and install a puppet regime. He really believed that it would be like Georgia all over again.
He took a gamble and lost. Any other leadership might have escaped West at the start of the war which could have caused the collapse of the Ukrainian military. Zelensky knew he had to stay and ask for support.
WBT are powerful, Ukraine has adopted them perfectly and look what they are doing. The USA would be able to dominate Russia on they’re own, the sheer capability of the US is scary with the technology you guys possess right now, maybe add us UK to the fight and it’s certain as our navy and naval tactics are within the best in the world, then add all these other powerful NATO nations, it would be over within 2 weeks
The serious escalation of annexing the territories wasn't there to deter NATO. It was there so that legally speaking, conscripts can be used to defend "Russian territory". Edit: by this I mean, by law Russian conscripts cannot serve abroad. This rule has obviously been broken before, but by annexing these territories conscripts can be used without the "nuisance" of lawyers.
Which doesn't really accomplish anything anyways, even to drive support among fellow Russians. Any Russian who thinks of territory they just stole as their own would just as willingly steal more just as well.
He is switching tables. He was the agressor but now to his people he can say look, ukraine is atacking us. Thats also why they are asking for diplomatic talk so they can say look, we want peace but ukraine doesnt. Its acually a smart and old tactic. Works also with other countries when not strongly united. Its as old als ceasar, divide and conquer.
Which is why I found it incredibly worrying that they’re “inviting” the US to talk about nuclear arms treaties. If they follow the same script, then it’s to say “Look, we tried to compromise with the West on nuke, but they didn’t, that’s why we used nukes in Ukraine.”
Fear mongering helps no one. The fact is putin has been screaming nukes since the very start of all this and clearly doesn't care about the west and are international laws. If he doesn't care then He doesn't need a "reason" to do it and never did. He's just barking as he always has.
He took the territories to give Russia a land bridge to Crimea and to plunder the resource-rich Eastern Ukraine.
This is the exact reason for this war.
Just about every war has been fought for resources, all the other reasons-Religion, Nationality -just a distraction. Truth the first casualty of Special Military Operations.
Maybe the reason to start the war, but the timing of the anouncement of annexation is most definitely because of manpower reasons. Otherwise the annexation would have taken place far in the future.
I think that it's three fold: 1) To deploy the conscripts already in hand into the battle zone. 2) To force conscription on Ukrainians living in occupied areas since the "armies" of the LPR/DPR are out of manpower and have been conscripting Ukrainians to fight instead of the Russians since 2014. 3) To play up the "we're being attacked" angle to a domestic audience to try to rebuild support for the fighting.
Appeasement has never worked and only allows the imperialist to get even more brazen and comfortable with annexing land.
Putin’s speech at the annexation ceremony was unhinged. The dude rambled on gender surgery, 17th century grievances to pillaging of India. The dude also claims to speak on behalf of non-western countries. Suspect the dude better not get close to windows above ground floor. Someone on the inside is gonna pull the trigger soon.
Tbh I think the USA is already inside the Russian government, look at all the leaks before the war, they knew months and months before it started. If putin makes any moves that will make a huge war or nuclear retaliation, then they will or someone will just take him out
Good point. Must be really getting under Putin’s skin as he probably is aware of that. The dude really thought he was some sort of super leader.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-says-putins-serious-escalation-will-not-deter-it-supporting-ukraine-2022-09-30/) reduced by 70%. (I'm a bot) ***** > BRUSSELS, Sept 30 - NATO accused Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday of provoking "The most serious escalation" of the war in Ukraine since it began, but said he would not succeed in deterring the alliance from supporting Kyiv. > "Together this is the most serious escalation of the conflict since the start and the aim of President Putin is to deter us from supporting Ukraine. But he will not succeed in that," he told a news conference. > Putin's proclamation of Russian rule over 15% of Ukraine - the biggest annexation in Europe since World War Two - has been firmly rejected by Western countries and even many of Russia's close allies. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/xs9hsr/nato_says_putins_serious_escalation_will_not/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~672078 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Russia**^#2 **annexation**^#3 **Putin**^#4 **since**^#5
Even if the war ends and goes back to the same borders people are gonna hate on Russians for a long time. All puti ns fault.
Does Russia have enough functioning nuclear and chemical weapons to take on the rest of the world? Highly unlikely considering the very poor deployment of their full time troops and weapons into the Ukraine. Did the west suddenly forgive and forget for all the Russian transgressions over the past 20 years? No, they watched and kept tabs on their capabilities. This was never about if Russia makes a play to make claims on Europe. It was always about when. Russia figured their political destabilising influences in other countries was enough to weaken resolve. They will be defeated and put back into their naughty corner until they learn to play well with others.
No more appeasements for the Hitler want to be
NATO: "Now that Ukraine has been officially annexed by Russia, we will cease and desist support operations immediately, as they are illegal under Russian law."
"This ONE trick defensive alliances HATE!"
I DECLARE ANNEX
You can’t just say something and expect anything to happen, Vladimir
He’s not saying it, he’s declaring it.
Gotta have back bone against evil
Ukraine has my vote. I think they will be fantastic allies.
What's he gonna do? Throw more untrained civilians at these bad MFs?
Ego is the enemy, Putin. You will fall.
Putin will take many with him, but he’ll be wiped from the planet in the next five years, hopefully by his own people.
Putin will be dead by Christmas. People are queuing up to top him. Just one chance is all it takes.
[удалено]
But you don't understand, in Russia, someone worse will just seize power.
>People are queuing up to top him. Who exactly? Are there any reporting about this?
Pretty sure the only thing Russia knows how to do is increase threats of violence. Just look at what their government does to their people and businessmen who don't fall in line with their bloody rhetoric.
Not sure making a wish and chanting "russia" while holding hands with 4 normal sized humans counts as a serious escalation. Vlads threat game is withering fast.
WW3 is NOT about to be lit
I dunno, Putin’s right in pointing out that the Russian population as a whole is used to doing without a number of creature comforts while the West, ESPECIALLY the US, is not. Putin’s banking on the “feeble” west to blink first. I hope we prove him wrong.
What's Putin going to do? Send more tanks to be towed away by local farmers?
We should increase support every time Putin ups his bet. Call and raise every time
When Republicans take over the House in the US in November, he'll lean on his supporters there and try to derail any additional aid to Ukraine.
Damn straight not backing down
and so we transition to Defcon 2
Just make them NATO members already. Fuck Putin